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[A Drowned Kernel]

I voted yes to the duel.

Because you honestly think that me or joseph could be scum, or because you're sticking to your "always vote yes" stance?

[mcmcsalot]

Also I think swan is disregarding that it is almost equally as unlikely that scum!joseph picks the jk as town!joseph picks the jk.

Town!joseph has a 1 in 10 chance of hitting the jk.
Scum!joseph (assuming scum shot joth) knows joth is either the jk, protected by the jk, or the scum who did the nk was blocked by the jk. Those are three scenarios and I don’t know the probability of each occurring. But scum!joseph guessing correctly that joth was the jk and not just some vt which WOULD result in the real jk staying silent and best bet for scum is they trade 1v1 with a vt.

So the whole joseph has to be scum because there is no way town!joseph hit the jk is a super weirdly specific argument that doesn’t hold much water.

On top of that myself and adk sort of already went through this prior to swans post where he started down this track and he keeps acting like scum!joseph knows joth is the jk when he doesn’t.

Scum!swan however does know if joth is the jk or not because he knows if he did the nk or if someone else on his team shot joth.

[mcmcsalot]

I voted yes to the duel.

Because you honestly think that me or joseph could be scum, or because you're sticking to your "always vote yes" stance?

I want this answer as well. I voted no to the duel.

[jotheonah]

The Swan point that resonated with me that I’m thinking about now is the fact that Joseph investigated me because he thought I was scum, then I made the most obvious scum claim in the world, and then he became completely convinced I was town.

I’d like to think it’s because of my overwhelming air of townhomes, but Swan is totally right that it’s damned weird! So is it something scum!Joseph does? To answer that question we have to accept that we live in the reality where scum decided to go for this gambit. But I can actually believe that.

So scum!joseph finds out town didn’t get a power. And possibly/probably that the power they didn’t get was a 1-shot Neapolitan. So they discuss whether to fakeclaim it. They’re thinking that either they hit the JK (maybe they already suspect it’s me for some reason) or they hit a VT. If they hit a VT, they’re in a 1-for-1. The VT says “he’s lying he must be scum” and then we lynch them most likely and lynch ajoseph tomorrow. If they hit the JK, it’s still a 1-for-1.

At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.

Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.

[mcmcsalot]

Is there a reason joth can't be scum or are people following gut reads? Don't say it's because there was no counterclaim. I'm with DatSwan on that.

It’s not a can’t its a I highly doubt it.

I thought joth v glooble argument looked town v town, I thought the joth/glooble duel was a bad duel. I think joth jk targets make sense. And yes I think a different jk should claim.

Right now if we say the jk has to claim, then later no scum can pipe up and say “I’m the real jk, joth is lying, I kept quiet because I didn’t want to get shot at night”.

If joth is scum, the real jk doesn’t know if they blocked mafia or protected town or got shot at, so they don’t guarantee that they block another kill. We cannot be certain we believe their claim at a later date because many people think they should claim now.

So the only thing a jk does by waiting is hope to block another kill, and eventually if we lynch them or they die they trade one for one with joth. Which they could just trade one for one with joth now.

I doubt there is a town jk somewhere waiting to claim and hoping we lynch an un countered claim.

I think it’s most likely joth is the jk and town!joseph targeted him with his neo pr.

People who think it’s more likely joth is fake claiming are keeping open the ability for scum to fake claim later. People pushing that there is no way joseph hit the jk are going down a conspiratorial route to get lynched a guy who used a or and got a result. These are both super pro scum arguments because it destroys the IC ish status of joth/joseph and it pushes a lynch based on claims not reads.

[mcmcsalot]

Responding to joths recent comment about swan.

I don’t see where Swan makes the point that town!joseph shouldn’t have believed joths claim right away. However to provide clarity joseph did not.

Okay screw it, I was hoping someone would fake claim and out themselves as scum. But it hasn't happened, so I'm going to claim:

I'm a one shot neapolitan, and the result I got was that joth is not a VT
Having done the maths, this means there's a ~75% chance that they're scum.

And i really hope i haven't just outed our JK here

Guess what? You have!

Least surprising claim ever

Here is joseph pointing out that the only thing likely to happen is joth claims jk regardless of alignment.

Important: if joth isn't the JK, can the real JK please come out? Otherwise we're going to assume that joth is town

Here is joseph reiterating how important it is that the jk counterclaim or else we should assume joth is town. Which is what we are doing.

Because either joth is scum or JK. If he's JK, scum might know he's JK now (if they shot him last night)

And if he's scum, this is good information.

Btw, i chose joth because knowing the makeup of the duel yesterday (town/town or scum/town) would be good information for today

Also here is Joseph’s actual resining for targeting joth, because he was the survival of the duel and leaning the alignment of both glooble and joth is super helpful.

I agree with that entirely and also makes explains on a very towny way how town!joseph end up hitting jk!joth.

[Robz888]

I voted yes to the duel.

Because you honestly think that me or joseph could be scum, or because you're sticking to your "always vote yes" stance?

I want this answer as well. I voted no to the duel.

ADK has been highest on my scum list for a while, I thought we could lynch him and maybe get a PR. (No chance Joseph is scum.)

[jotheonah]

Hmm mcmc is making a lot of sense.

I’m willing to hammer. Not in a huge hurry to do so, but will plan to in 10 hours before I go to bed tonight. Or sooner if it seems like everyone’s said their peace.

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 3.2

DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
Robz888 (1): EFHW
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan

Not Voting (4): Robz888, Debatepro, jotheonah, Uncleeurope

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Sep. 27, 18:00 forum time. That is in 5 days and 6+ hours.

[Debatepro]

Town!joseph has a 1 in 10 chance of hitting the jk.

But for scum!joseph, if Joth was the NK, had a 50/50 shot that unsuccessful NK means Joth was JK or VT.

[mcmcsalot]

Town!joseph has a 1 in 10 chance of hitting the jk.

But for scum!joseph, if Joth was the NK, had a 50/50 shot that unsuccessful NK means Joth was JK or VT.

No as I’ve explained before it’s more complex than 50/50 because if scum shoots joth and there is no nk joth could be jk, joth could have been protected by the jk, or the scum that shot could have been jailkept. Scum!joseph doesn’t know the how the kill was prevented.

[Debatepro]

Hmm mcmc is making a lot of sense.

I’m willing to hammer. Not in a huge hurry to do so, but will plan to in 10 hours before I go to bed tonight. Or sooner if it seems like everyone’s said their peace.

Wait we have like 4ish more days, right? If DS is scum and to be the Lynch, let’s track down their partners.

I for one am interested in determining which one of these folks below is his likely partner.  Given the way the DS discussion is going, is Robz the best candidate? ADK would have to be on a super bus plan and aweclus would be on the short bus plan.  Other thoughts?

There are 5 players who have voted for all three of the confirmed town players (Pubby, MiX, Glooble). They also voted for each confirmed town player, prior to the 2nd duel being announced.
1. ADK
2. Awaclus
3. Joseph (claimed Neap)
4. Joth (claimed JK)
5. Robz

If we just isolate day one votes for confirmed town the list is:
1. ADK
2. Joth
3. Robz

Awaclus had the very first vote on day two for glooble and joseph also votes glooble on the seventh vote of day 2 which is before the glooble v joth duel was announced.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Hmm mcmc is making a lot of sense.

I’m willing to hammer. Not in a huge hurry to do so, but will plan to in 10 hours before I go to bed tonight. Or sooner if it seems like everyone’s said their peace.

Wait we have like 4ish more days, right? If DS is scum and to be the Lynch, let’s track down their partners.

I for one am interested in determining which one of these folks below is his likely partner.  Given the way the DS discussion is going, is Robz the best candidate? ADK would have to be on a super bus plan and aweclus would be on the short bus plan.  Other thoughts?

There are 5 players who have voted for all three of the confirmed town players (Pubby, MiX, Glooble). They also voted for each confirmed town player, prior to the 2nd duel being announced.
1. ADK
2. Awaclus
3. Joseph (claimed Neap)
4. Joth (claimed JK)
5. Robz

If we just isolate day one votes for confirmed town the list is:
1. ADK
2. Joth
3. Robz

Awaclus had the very first vote on day two for glooble and joseph also votes glooble on the seventh vote of day 2 which is before the glooble v joth duel was announced.

EFHW and Eddie seem like likely candidates

[Swowl]

Is there a reason joth can't be scum or are people following gut reads? Don't say it's because there was no counterclaim. I'm with DatSwan on that.

My reason for Joth being town is primarily due to the fact that there was no night kill. I don't believe a JK should claim if Joth is skum, but also I am pretty heavily disagreed with on that... and there has been no claim. But, when you take those two pieces of info:

1) They shot Joth last night and used his BP... which is just super unlikely to kill off the other person from a duel. Pretty much the only reason to do it is if they had a strong read that he was exactly JK... but then they would of used their SM shot... but that didn't happen.

2) So all of that combined with my perspective pretty much. In which I believe that I would of been a good kill choice for skum last night. Joth would of thought from the previous day I was either white knighting him or I was pure town - so I am a great JK choice from his pov. 

so yeah... joth is town imo bc of that.

[Swowl]

Hmm mcmc is making a lot of sense.

I’m willing to hammer. Not in a huge hurry to do so, but will plan to in 10 hours before I go to bed tonight. Or sooner if it seems like everyone’s said their peace.

Wait we have like 4ish more days, right? If DS is scum and to be the Lynch, let’s track down their partners.

I for one am interested in determining which one of these folks below is his likely partner.  Given the way the DS discussion is going, is Robz the best candidate? ADK would have to be on a super bus plan and aweclus would be on the short bus plan.  Other thoughts?

There are 5 players who have voted for all three of the confirmed town players (Pubby, MiX, Glooble). They also voted for each confirmed town player, prior to the 2nd duel being announced.
1. ADK
2. Awaclus
3. Joseph (claimed Neap)
4. Joth (claimed JK)
5. Robz

If we just isolate day one votes for confirmed town the list is:
1. ADK
2. Joth
3. Robz

Awaclus had the very first vote on day two for glooble and joseph also votes glooble on the seventh vote of day 2 which is before the glooble v joth duel was announced.

gonna go ahead and save town a TON of time and effort here... You absolutely should use the whole day today... even if there nothing I can do to prevent my lynch. However, don't waste your time partner searching based on me being skum. spend the time doing something else useful.

[Swowl]

Also I think swan is disregarding that it is almost equally as unlikely that scum!joseph picks the jk as town!joseph picks the jk.

Town!joseph has a 1 in 10 chance of hitting the jk.
Scum!joseph (assuming scum shot joth) knows joth is either the jk, protected by the jk, or the scum who did the nk was blocked by the jk. Those are three scenarios and I don’t know the probability of each occurring. But scum!joseph guessing correctly that joth was the jk and not just some vt which WOULD result in the real jk staying silent and best bet for scum is they trade 1v1 with a vt.

So the whole joseph has to be scum because there is no way town!joseph hit the jk is a super weirdly specific argument that doesn’t hold much water.

On top of that myself and adk sort of already went through this prior to swans post where he started down this track and he keeps acting like scum!joseph knows joth is the jk when he doesn’t.

Scum!swan however does know if joth is the jk or not because he knows if he did the nk or if someone else on his team shot joth.

you are doing an insanely good job of reading my posts... disregarding key pieces of info, and then painting them as wayyyyyyy more opinionated then they are.

You play with me a lot. I am not making cases here (and you know that) - I am just stating possibilities.

We normally do this dance on Day 1, not Day 3, so I am struggling on how to deal with talking to you in this mode.

How about this: Everyone is just fucking town ok - pretend with me for a second - Assume you are town, I am town, both Joth and Joseph are Town. Who is skum?

[Uncleeurope]

E and Awaclus?

Probably e.

Or Robz.

Or EFHW.

Probably e.

[Swowl]

At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.

Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.

Sure.
Wake up Day 3 with 3vs8 (11 total). skum here would be considering two options:

1) Can they quick win this?
   - Not really like in this set up after they do not get a kill last night. Even if they went mislynch+NK, then tomorrow mislynch+NK, we would still wake up Day 5 with 7 alive (3vs4).
   - So their "quick win" is batting perfect and ending the game after a third mislynch at the end of Day 5.
   - That would mean that as town we go 5 straight days without finding a single skum. Do you believe that to be likely?


2) So it must be a long game. OK. What are threats they need to deal with?
   - Being a Town PR gain with a result is a pretty good thing to start with.
   - Then, there is also the JK. The priority they would have would be to make sure the JK dies before they get a chance to claim relevant information that can fuck them over.


Coolio, consider this.

I am saying that I see a scenario where Joseph is Skum and Joth is Town. Here is the timeline I am using to justify that as a potential possibility. It is not convoluted, it is a timeline. Every choice skum would make in this assumption would of been due to the effects of the previous step of the timeline, not thought of in whole prior as a "master plan".

Night 2 - They have to choose a target. Let's say they did for some reason choose Joth. They also got info of the PR (in this scenario), so they do not have to worry about another PR out there that can proc.


Day 3 Starts - They wake up and there is no death. So the options are:

a) The skum that shot was JK'd - I find it extremely hard to believe that given how this game has gone so far that they would have a problem picking someone to carry out the kill that they are not essentially certain would not be JK'd. So, this one is in the trash for me... as it would be for them as well.

b) Joth was JK'd - Also in trash for me, as it would be for them as well. Why would the JK pick the counterpart of the duel in this spot? There could be reasons, but when compared to "c"..

c) Joth is the JK and they hit bulletproof. From a skum PoV, given the available options that could of happened at the beginning of Day 3... this would be the primary likely option.


***OK - now as you are reading take a second and pause. This is not a paranoia theory at this point. It is a lot of ideas, but they all are happening chronologically 1 at a time. NOT pre planned out. They made choice 1, cause created an option list, in which they made choice 2.***


Day 3 Mid - They choose to make a fake claim on Joth. Options to them at the time of this choice would be:

a) Joth is the JK. They out the JK. Now they have the JK. Since Joth is alive they still have their SM shot too. So they don't even have to kill Joth at night. They can, surprise, try to paint Joth's NK as skum (me), keeping either of the claims from flipping, then use their SM tonight on someone random to GTD they get the kill off, then when we wake up and Joth is alive... everyone is like... why is Joth alive? That is not outting one person for 1 mislynch... that is outting 1 person to get 1 mislynch, then a mislynch on the JK, and retain 2 NKs over that time.

b) Joth was JK'd by someone else. Of course this option doesn't really make sense right now, but at the time that they chose to target Joth, it is important to point it out. They would of considered this and thought that Joth would say it was a lie. At that point, I see the logic in how "that doesn't make sense for skum to choose this". However, remember that they would most likely been in a spot where they would think it was very unlikely for someone to JK Joth.

c) The shooter was JK'd. Again, there is no reason at this point in the game skum would think this is likely.



Late Day 3 - They play accordingly. As it happens, the most likely scenario was the correct one and Joth was JK. Then Joth obv claims targets. In a world where Joth was JK and also targeted skum on Night 2, they would hard push for that player being towny (not skummy as is happening). If Joth picked a Town target Night 2, they would paint that player as skummy (as is happening right now). Any which way, they get a minimum of a 1:1 trade and if Joth is the JK they end up getting a 1-2:1 trade, one of which eliminates the JK.



I hope that answers your question - that is literally the entire thought process I went through for that scenario.

I feel the need to end with this - That is not exactly what I think is the only thing in the world that could of happened. I just think that it is almost as likely as both of them being Town. Mainly based on the concept that I just do not see town freeking anyone choosing Joth as the Neo target last night. But I have been wrong in that type of scenario before. But then Joseph was on the duel list... and then we went no duel. When Joth was on the duel list, we went to duel. So, I guess I just want to make it clear that if I must be the lynch, don't go crusading mindlessly on Joseph after I flip. I mean, don't ignore him either, but there is a possibility that they are both town.

[EFHW]

I'm finding debate's suggestion pretty scummy. I'm fine with not rushing to a lynch I don't support,  but to say you're looking for partners  without voting for DS in the first place seems like a way to distract town while seeming to agree. If DS is scum, Debate looks like a prime candidate for partner! If DS is town debate still looks scummy by not taking a stand. vote: Debate

Ppe: 1 wall

[Swowl]

Also something that I want to get out in case I get quick lynched here:

Everyone needs to consider the strength that skum will be in tomorrow after pushing my lynch here.
They will mislynch me (-1), then they will kill Joth (-2), then if Joseph is Skum they will push the concept that they were just both town... which is already happening like... a lot, or if Joseph is Town they will push for his lynch (which is unlikely due to how many people have given opinions that is TvT).

Regardless of Joseph, if you lynch me, when you wake up tomorrow it will be 6v3 with 9 alive. And there will be no Joth I assume, so JK is gone.

That is important because of the duel stuff. When they make up 50% of the Town players, they have a fairly strong potential of controlling the duel stat to their favor. If they like the duel they will only need 2/6 to make a duel happen, and it will require 5/6 to make a duel they don't want to happen go off (if you assume it is a skumvstown duel, and the town in duel votes no, it will actually take 100% of other town to vote yes).

Obviously, that scenario is the same if we lynch someone other than me and they are also Town... but the point as a piece of information is what I wanted to get across. It kind of leads into my whole "they would play for the long game" scenario. Imagine the end game for them. Something like:

- Day 6 would probably be 5 alive with 2 skum. So they control the duel pretty well, but again, I would be hopeful town could find a skum there. If not, then we lose, but that leads to..
- Day 7 would probably be 3 alive with 1 skum. They for sure would be factoring this in. It is either no duel normal, or skum vs town so 50-50, or town v town for a lock win. It is because of this I think that they would be willing risk the trade because as long as they can get to this point with no extra info, they are looking good. To make that happen they need to be able to control the JK (by getting rid of them) and attempt to keep control of duels (to prevent additional info from PRs).

That's all I got.

I will give up on Joseph as I am obviously getting no traction there.

My other 2 would be ADK and E. Followed by Awaclus and Debate. Which is weird because that pretty much is the so far spoken of "partner list" I could have.

[jotheonah]

At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.

Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.

Sure.
Wake up Day 3 with 3vs8 (11 total). skum here would be considering two options:

1) Can they quick win this?
   - Not really like in this set up after they do not get a kill last night.

Let me stop you right there. Scum doesn't know their kill didn't go through until day start. So this whole thing you laid out works only as something Joseph by himself decided to do without consulting his partners.

[Swowl]

At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.

Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.

Sure.
Wake up Day 3 with 3vs8 (11 total). skum here would be considering two options:

1) Can they quick win this?
   - Not really like in this set up after they do not get a kill last night.

Let me stop you right there. Scum doesn't know their kill didn't go through until day start. So this whole thing you laid out works only as something Joseph by himself decided to do without consulting his partners.

tbf that is exactly what my thought was on being willing to dial back on Joseph.
I don't think he is the type of player that always will take that line like "by themselves".

Still possible, but yeah... kind of have to agree with you there.

[Joseph2302]

At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.

Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.

Sure.
Wake up Day 3 with 3vs8 (11 total). skum here would be considering two options:

1) Can they quick win this?
   - Not really like in this set up after they do not get a kill last night.

Let me stop you right there. Scum doesn't know their kill didn't go through until day start. So this whole thing you laid out works only as something Joseph by himself decided to do without consulting his partners.

tbf that is exactly what my thought was on being willing to dial back on Joseph.
I don't think he is the type of player that always will take that line like "by themselves".

Still possible, but yeah... kind of have to agree with you there.

I'm not the sort of person with enough thinking power to single handedly create such an elaborate scheme

[Joseph2302]

And i feel like the (few) people who've played a reasonable number of games with me know that

[Uncleeurope]

At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.

Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.

Sure.
Wake up Day 3 with 3vs8 (11 total). skum here would be considering two options:

1) Can they quick win this?
   - Not really like in this set up after they do not get a kill last night.

Let me stop you right there. Scum doesn't know their kill didn't go through until day start. So this whole thing you laid out works only as something Joseph by himself decided to do without consulting his partners.

#TownSlip

I dunno, man, I wanna trust Swowl here a lot more than other people at the moment.