Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[EFHW]

Is there more against DatSwan than the missing nk? I  guess I've been in a minority tending to agree with him more than others.

Got someone else we should be looking at?

I'll look into it.

[EFHW]

Is there more against DatSwan than the missing nk? I  guess I've been in a minority tending to agree with him more than others.

Someone said— and I tend to agree— that his response to the claims seemed like an attempt to throw some doubt on me and Joseph being treated as ICs, which is a very scummy reaction.

I don't think that's scummy. I was thinking the same things, out of caution.

[Swowl]

OK small request - I need like half a day to respond to evidently a ton of shit here. I had a giant work event today and I am just freeking exhausted and I don't have the mind power to go through and respond to everything I want to at this point. I think at least, I am gonna start and just stop when I essentially pass out and pick it up later.

1)

Vote: Datswan
Me and joth not being town/town is the biggest rubbish I've heard all game

- This is absurd. Like even if Joseph is town this is absurd. Let's say Joseph is Town... they get the 1 shot for Neo.. They pick Joth. Weird choice imo, but whatever moving past that... Joseph would be picking between 10 other people... 3 of which are skum. So there is a 30% chance that this pick skum, a 10% chance they pick JK, and a 60% chance they pick VT. They then get a "not VT result". Put aside my assumption that we do not really need to be thinking we have 2 ICs here... Why in all the hell would Joseph not be suspicious of Joth here? If they Neo the JK, the JK claims JK. If they neo skum, the skum claims JK. It plays out the same. Why is it rubbish for me to not assume they are both town from Joseph's POV when they should themselves be at least moderately suspicious. It's not like they Neo'd Joth to try to clear Joth, they Neo'd them to hopefully get a result. Then they got a result... now they just wholey believe Joth? That... that is what doesn't make sense.


2)

Upon further reflection, I agree with DatSwan that we should take a step back from assuming we now have 2 ICs. Joseph could have been trying to frame joth and got unlucky that he hit the jk.  Joth could be scum who pretty much has to claim jk or be lynched.

If joth isn't the jk, the real jk is putting us in a really terrible position.....

- Then this. This is the opposite of a terrible position. It is only a terrible position if the tables are then turned on a random third party town (hint hint). The play for JK here is absolutely NOT TO CLAIM if Joth is not the JK. If anyone ever flips JK, then we have a free skum. If Joth isn't JK, and JK claims, then we get the free lynch now... which is albeit better... but the EV on the situation def goes to JK not claiming here.


3)

The idea that scum!joseph claims a result on town!joth is nutso bonkers. Swan's big post honestly makes me think that he was the one who made the kill last night and is trying to keep other scenarios open

-Right. That is why I said it was 1/4 potential instances. I did not say it is the only one. Also, just saying... If there was a player to pick for that circumstance, Joth would of been a good candidate. Because of the Day 2 duel, skum would know that there were quite a few people that would be ok looking at Joth (even more so after Glooble flipped). So, if they did choose to pick a town to make this claim, Joth would kind of be the one to pick.


4)

And looks like a good JK role block last night

You are not an IC. You probably are not even town. stop spinning it that way.


That is all I have I guess for now. I think that the people pushing me are coming off as opportunistic, but also they cannot all be skum. I thought/think ADK is skummy but I doubt that both skum ADK and skum Joseph would team up here like this ... and if I have to pick I obv am picking Joseph.

Joth is a non case for me at this point. I had forgotten that they had a BP tbh, and with that added onto the table for NK possibles, they are just gone from my lynch pool. Also, as I know I am town and this is happening and there is no duel... I am assuming that they are telling the truth.

Someone also said that they did not think that skum would come out the gate like this with a claim today. I do not agree, I think they would. They are super ahead right now, and anyone that has mathed out the game knows that it is gonna either be like a straight skum victory or it will most likely run to final 3 alive. That gives them all the reason in the world to try and start painting doubt and making images asap.

I will read back better later and see what is up but I do not get why I have so much hate right now. I feel like the ideas I laid out are fairly sound.

Vote: Joseph

[mcmcsalot]

Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.

I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.

Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.

We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.

[jotheonah]

Swan makes some good points... but I’d also still very possibly scum. At this point if Joseph and Swan are both town I’ll be shocked.

unvote for now. More from me tomorrow.

[Uncleeurope]

Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.

I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.

Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.

We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.

Oh, hello there, MiX. Turns out you aren’t as dead as we once thought.

[EFHW]

Shoot, now I'm getting the impression that DatSwan knows joth is town. It's late now, I'll look at details tomorrow.

[Swowl]

Shoot, now I'm getting the impression that DatSwan knows joth is town. It's late now, I'll look at details tomorrow.

Dudet- i think it is unlikely that they are both town. I think that Joth is town way over Joseph. It is not not conf bias, it is just i don’t want to lynch Joth and i do wanna lynch Joseph.

I also hard committed to glooble yesterday, the whole time defending Joth. Which i get is all “yeah exactly” but also not how i lit would play out if i was skum.

Idk what to do here you all need to think more clearly. My thoughts are valid.

[Swowl]

Swan makes some good points... but I’d also still very possibly scum. At this point if Joseph and Swan are both town I’ll be shocked.

unvote for now. More from me tomorrow.

I would like to know your standing on Joseph when you get a chance.

[Swowl]

Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.

I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.

Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.

We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.

I need you to stop being skummy. It is complicating the situation.

I said that it is unlikely (which it is) that town Joseph got a 1 shot Neo ability, then chose Joth to target, who happened to be the ONLY OTHER PR IN THE GAME. That is the literal definition of unlikely... to the point that it is not like... arguable.

Are people mis understanding me? Does that not make sense? it isn't an opinion, it is a fact. If there are X amount of players the lowest chance that someone can have to hit a PR is 1/X ( which is what we have in this game).

You are like tied with Faust for the last person that would just assume we have 2 ICs here. What gives?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.

I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.

Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.

We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.

I need you to stop being skummy. It is complicating the situation.

I said that it is unlikely (which it is) that town Joseph got a 1 shot Neo ability, then chose Joth to target, who happened to be the ONLY OTHER PR IN THE GAME. That is the literal definition of unlikely... to the point that it is not like... arguable.

Are people mis understanding me? Does that not make sense? it isn't an opinion, it is a fact. If there are X amount of players the lowest chance that someone can have to hit a PR is 1/X ( which is what we have in this game).

You are like tied with Faust for the last person that would just assume we have 2 ICs here. What gives?

Assuming Joseph is town and telling the truth, the odds of him hitting the JK were 1 in 10. That's not astronomically unlikely. To me that's more plausible than scum!Joseph deciding to fake a result and hope he guessed right

[Swowl]

Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.

I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.

Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.

We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.

What?
So like...
-Player X JKs Player Y
-Skum A shoots JK (or player Y)

We have no death. Then all this shit goes down. So, if Joth is not the JK, the  JK claiming solves what exactly?

If Joth is not the JK then the JK claims and we choose between [Swan, Joth, JK Claim]. I will save the space and let you math out why that is a great skum spot to be in.

I get why I could be skum here. But I am not, and it doesn't make sense that people have so much acceptance of the ideology that both Joth/Joseph are Town.

[Swowl]

Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.

I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.

Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.

We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.

I need you to stop being skummy. It is complicating the situation.

I said that it is unlikely (which it is) that town Joseph got a 1 shot Neo ability, then chose Joth to target, who happened to be the ONLY OTHER PR IN THE GAME. That is the literal definition of unlikely... to the point that it is not like... arguable.

Are people mis understanding me? Does that not make sense? it isn't an opinion, it is a fact. If there are X amount of players the lowest chance that someone can have to hit a PR is 1/X ( which is what we have in this game).

You are like tied with Faust for the last person that would just assume we have 2 ICs here. What gives?

Assuming Joseph is town and telling the truth, the odds of him hitting the JK were 1 in 10. That's not astronomically unlikely. To me that's more plausible than scum!Joseph deciding to fake a result and hope he guessed right

Those odds are literally identical.

[Swowl]

Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.

I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.

Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.

We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.

I need you to stop being skummy. It is complicating the situation.

I said that it is unlikely (which it is) that town Joseph got a 1 shot Neo ability, then chose Joth to target, who happened to be the ONLY OTHER PR IN THE GAME. That is the literal definition of unlikely... to the point that it is not like... arguable.

Are people mis understanding me? Does that not make sense? it isn't an opinion, it is a fact. If there are X amount of players the lowest chance that someone can have to hit a PR is 1/X ( which is what we have in this game).

You are like tied with Faust for the last person that would just assume we have 2 ICs here. What gives?

Assuming Joseph is town and telling the truth, the odds of him hitting the JK were 1 in 10. That's not astronomically unlikely. To me that's more plausible than scum!Joseph deciding to fake a result and hope he guessed right

Those odds are literally identical.

and also again. again again. just one of the thought I put forth. they could also both be skum. or both town. or the other way around.

I don't really know how to defend my case here. I am acting with a very important piece of info that no one else is. Joth COULD OF JKd me last night and prevented a kill. This makes me think Joth is town. I see how from another perspective that means way less. But that is where my lean on Joth over Joseph on the town side comes from.

[Swowl]

Also.

I voted yes to the duel.

I am not gonna be the one to point it out, but if someone else wants to do some work and point out why Joth/Joseph/ADK should claim their votes that would be neat.

[2.71828.....]

Ok, no duel.

About all the scenarios that swan is throwing out. They are all very much schemes and plots and stuff that can be true, but are just not the straightforward easy answer that is true 95% of the time.

Vote: swan

Back to L-2

[Awaclus]

Vote: DatSwan

[jotheonah]

I voted no.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Also.

I voted yes to the duel.

I am not gonna be the one to point it out, but if someone else wants to do some work and point out why Joth/Joseph/ADK should claim their votes that would be neat.

I voted no, and you're being ridiculous

[A Drowned Kernel]

Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.

I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.

Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.

We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.

I need you to stop being skummy. It is complicating the situation.

I said that it is unlikely (which it is) that town Joseph got a 1 shot Neo ability, then chose Joth to target, who happened to be the ONLY OTHER PR IN THE GAME. That is the literal definition of unlikely... to the point that it is not like... arguable.

Are people mis understanding me? Does that not make sense? it isn't an opinion, it is a fact. If there are X amount of players the lowest chance that someone can have to hit a PR is 1/X ( which is what we have in this game).

You are like tied with Faust for the last person that would just assume we have 2 ICs here. What gives?

Assuming Joseph is town and telling the truth, the odds of him hitting the JK were 1 in 10. That's not astronomically unlikely. To me that's more plausible than scum!Joseph deciding to fake a result and hope he guessed right

Those odds are literally identical.

The odds that scum!Joseph picks right is 1 in 10. What I find much more implausible is the idea that scum!Joseph decides to take that chance

[EFHW]

Is there more against DatSwan than the missing nk? I  guess I've been in a minority tending to agree with him more than others.

Got someone else we should be looking at?

I'll look into it.

I think the people who are so convinced we have 2 ICs here. So, Robz, ADK, e, mcmc, and joth and Joseph,  with joth>>joseph in my opinion.  That's a lot of people, though.

What are your ideas, Debate?

Checking vc before voting to see if any wagon other than DS could have a chance.

[EFHW]

I'm going with vote: Robz because I felt like he was trying to sway town through social pressure more than logic.

[EFHW]

Is there a reason joth can't be scum or are people following gut reads? Don't say it's because there was no counterclaim. I'm with DatSwan on that.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Is there a reason joth can't be scum or are people following gut reads? Don't say it's because there was no counterclaim. I'm with DatSwan on that.

If the JK is keeping quiet then they are playing terrible here

[Robz888]

I voted yes to the duel.