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Author Topic: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Game over ; Mafia wins flawlessly)  (Read 145505 times)

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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #125 on: August 30, 2019, 02:21:44 pm »

I will say, if I were scum, I would be pro-duel. Wildly pro-duel.

vote: Robz

Would you be so open about it, though? If you were scum and you thought that always doing the duel was good for scum, I imagine you wouldn't overtly push it in the thread
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #126 on: August 30, 2019, 02:24:08 pm »

I'm anti-duel.

We're in a setup with 10 town players and 3 scum players.

The duel is between two randomly chosen players.

So, this is a conditional probability which I can never remember how to do...

There's a 10/13 (76.9%) chance the first random pick is town. If they are, there's a 9/12 (75%) the second one is town.

So there's a 57.6% chance a random selection is town vs town.
We can use the same math reversed (3/13 x 2/12) to figure out the probability of scum vs scum (3.8%), which means the remaining 39.6% of the time it'll be scum vs town.)

So, knowing nothing else about the duellers, that means voting for the duel is voting for a 57% chance of a guaranteed mislynch and a 40% chance of a 50/50. Those do not seem like good odds.

TL;DR I'm only going to vote for the duel if I already think one of the selected players is scum.

I will say that a town vs. scum duel is not a bad situation to be in, as those are going to be the most informative
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #127 on: August 30, 2019, 02:27:09 pm »

OTOH, the nice thing about the duel is it limits us to two possible wagons that scum had no role in choosing which is attractive.

They do have a role in choosing them, though, since they're a three person voting block when we're voting on the duel itself
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jotheonah

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #128 on: August 30, 2019, 03:00:17 pm »

OTOH, the nice thing about the duel is it limits us to two possible wagons that scum had no role in choosing which is attractive.

They do have a role in choosing them, though, since they're a three person voting block when we're voting on the duel itself

That's true. Which I suppose is a good argument for an "always duel" rule although it would be pretty unenforceable even if we did.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #129 on: August 30, 2019, 03:15:47 pm »

OTOH, the nice thing about the duel is it limits us to two possible wagons that scum had no role in choosing which is attractive.

They do have a role in choosing them, though, since they're a three person voting block when we're voting on the duel itself

That's true. Which I suppose is a good argument for an "always duel" rule although it would be pretty unenforceable even if we did.

I don't think I'm following your line of thought there
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MiX

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #130 on: August 30, 2019, 03:20:32 pm »

Vote: MiX

I am pro-duel. Wildly pro-duel! We should all vote yes and if you vote against it I will advocate your lynch.

Nice to be back in a game, not that I have enough time for it, but oh well!

Robz is Robz. Who knew?

I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.

Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.

Sadly it's just a random person, which sucks. Still better than nothing.

I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.

Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.

I don't think that anyone is saying we should never duel, but some people seem to be saying we should always duel, which I think is not good. We can get information out of which duels pass and which ones fail, which we lose if town just always votes yes.

When was the last time you saw town agree to something D1?


I've made a plan about duels. It's bad, inconsequential and will most likely be a waste of time. Still, it makes my opening posts have purpose so I'm proud of it.
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MiX

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #131 on: August 30, 2019, 03:25:16 pm »

Vote: pubby
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silverspawn

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #132 on: August 30, 2019, 03:29:47 pm »

Vote Count 1.2

Robz888 (2): jotheonah, pubby
jotheonah (1): Robz888
pubby (1): MiX
MiX (3): Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302

Not Voting (7): DatSwan, e, mcmcsalot, Glooble, Debatepro, Uncleeurope, EFHW

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 1 ends at Sep 1, 06:30 forum time. That is in 39h 2m.

Lunches ended. Day 2.

Day 2 [ edit ]

Day 2 was the day the second iteration of Day 1 of the new challenge began.

Day 2 [ edit ]

It happened again, with 14 living. It was almost as though we got it, just the same as before.

Round 1 of phase 1 begins at Sep 1:00 forum time. That is in 39h 2m.

Round 1 ends at Sep 2, 06:30 forum time. That is in 41h 6m.

Lunches ended. Day 2.

Day 3 [ edit ]

Day 3 was the day the third iteration of Day 1 of the new challenge began.

Day 3 [ edit ]

Day 3 was the time we got out of the house, but not before going into 3rd party servers, doing what we do best.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2019, 04:48:28 pm by silverspawn »
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #133 on: August 30, 2019, 03:35:08 pm »

I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.

Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.

I don't think that anyone is saying we should never duel, but some people seem to be saying we should always duel, which I think is not good. We can get information out of which duels pass and which ones fail, which we lose if town just always votes yes.

When was the last time you saw town agree to something D1?


I've made a plan about duels. It's bad, inconsequential and will most likely be a waste of time. Still, it makes my opening posts have purpose so I'm proud of it.

So proposing an anti-town plan is fine, because people aren't going to do it anyway?
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MiX

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #134 on: August 30, 2019, 03:41:01 pm »

I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.

Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.

I don't think that anyone is saying we should never duel, but some people seem to be saying we should always duel, which I think is not good. We can get information out of which duels pass and which ones fail, which we lose if town just always votes yes.

When was the last time you saw town agree to something D1?


I've made a plan about duels. It's bad, inconsequential and will most likely be a waste of time. Still, it makes my opening posts have purpose so I'm proud of it.

So proposing an anti-town plan is fine, because people aren't going to do it anyway?

Oh. Sorry, those 2 are unrelated. Notice the big spacing between them.

Talking about dueling's helpful for the reasons you said, being conflicted about it is good for reads. So what you do as obv!town (such as myself) is take the most controversial stance and push it, there's always people that oppose it and BAM you have the uncertaincy to duel AND people's stances on dueling. Which for me's better than nothing.

No I didn't think about this when I started talking about it, but it works! It...hopefully works, my plans have a tedency to fail. Of about 100%. Still.
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Robz888

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #135 on: August 30, 2019, 03:41:20 pm »

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else
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MiX

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #136 on: August 30, 2019, 03:45:14 pm »

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Stances about dueling on the average pairing is more important than dueling. But I am pro-dueling; as Robz said, it skips all the D1 scrambling and if we were ever going to lynch scum D1 then surely in 6 days we can determine which of 2 players is scum right? So in joth's probabilities (which are wrong, still a good baseline) we should lynch scum about...40% of the time. Because numbers are fun. And I think those are good odds, at least for D1.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #137 on: August 30, 2019, 03:57:09 pm »

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Stances about dueling on the average pairing is more important than dueling. But I am pro-dueling; as Robz said, it skips all the D1 scrambling and if we were ever going to lynch scum D1 then surely in 6 days we can determine which of 2 players is scum right? So in joth's probabilities (which are wrong, still a good baseline) we should lynch scum about...40% of the time. Because numbers are fun. And I think those are good odds, at least for D1.

If we assume we have a 50% chance of hitting scum in the case that the duel is town vs. scum, then by my calculations the odds of hitting scum are the same if we vote for the duel vs. a random lynch

...that might actually be an argument in favor of always doing the duel. I need to think about this for a second
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #138 on: August 30, 2019, 04:01:13 pm »

I mean, we would essentially be committing to a random lynch, in exchange for maybe getting a PR, and the D1 lynch is usually pretty random anyway

But it feels like it's giving up a lot of town agency, since the lynch is likely to be a lot less informative, and if we think that a lot of town is dueling just to duel, then we don't even get info from the fact that the duel passed

So I think I'm back where I started, which is "vote for the duel based on reads, not just because"
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pubby

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #139 on: August 30, 2019, 04:08:25 pm »

I'm only going to vote yes on the duel today if it involves one of the fools wanting to duel so badly.
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MiX

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #140 on: August 30, 2019, 04:11:09 pm »

I mean, we would essentially be committing to a random lynch, in exchange for maybe getting a PR, and the D1 lynch is usually pretty random anyway

But it feels like it's giving up a lot of town agency, since the lynch is likely to be a lot less informative, and if we think that a lot of town is dueling just to duel, then we don't even get info from the fact that the duel passed

So I think I'm back where I started, which is "vote for the duel based on reads, not just because"

Regardless of reads a duel day is less productive than a real day because there's less things town can do. So that doesn't truly follow as perfectly as you're saying.

And I was assuming we always win on town vs scum duels, because otherwise as you said it's same chance as random lynching.

I like PRs/focus on specific wagons, but I think without the PR it would be anti-town to duel at all. I think everyone should have a base stance on dueling and then change that according to your reads on whoever's being dueled. That should be the best.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #141 on: August 30, 2019, 04:49:05 pm »

I mean, we would essentially be committing to a random lynch, in exchange for maybe getting a PR, and the D1 lynch is usually pretty random anyway

But it feels like it's giving up a lot of town agency, since the lynch is likely to be a lot less informative, and if we think that a lot of town is dueling just to duel, then we don't even get info from the fact that the duel passed

So I think I'm back where I started, which is "vote for the duel based on reads, not just because"

Regardless of reads a duel day is less productive than a real day because there's less things town can do. So that doesn't truly follow as perfectly as you're saying.

And I was assuming we always win on town vs scum duels, because otherwise as you said it's same chance as random lynching.

I like PRs/focus on specific wagons, but I think without the PR it would be anti-town to duel at all. I think everyone should have a base stance on dueling and then change that according to your reads on whoever's being dueled. That should be the best.

So wait, are you against always dueling now? And why on earth would you assume we would always win on town vs. scum?
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #142 on: August 30, 2019, 04:51:46 pm »

Hold on, who is this 0Ix person? What's your deal?
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MiX

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #143 on: August 30, 2019, 05:01:18 pm »

So wait, are you against always dueling now? And why on earth would you assume we would always win on town vs. scum?

I think the PR part makes it better (because the downside's really small IMO) and I assumed that because otherwise it would just be same probability as random lynching.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #144 on: August 30, 2019, 05:04:02 pm »

So wait, are you against always dueling now? And why on earth would you assume we would always win on town vs. scum?

I think the PR part makes it better (because the downside's really small IMO) and I assumed that because otherwise it would just be same probability as random lynching.

That makes zero sense
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #145 on: August 30, 2019, 05:04:42 pm »

The second part, that is
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #146 on: August 30, 2019, 05:19:07 pm »

Welcome back Robz! Missed you. You are pro-duel but you're voting MiX who is also pro-duel I think. why?

You're right, I misread his "I am against both of those things" post.

I will instead vote for you, due to your stated anti-duel position. Vote: Jotheonah
Hey everyone btw, my first game here

Why would being anti-duel be scummy..? He explained clearly why and I must say, it'd good reasoning
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #147 on: August 30, 2019, 05:21:34 pm »

Hold on, who is this 0Ix person? What's your deal?
Hey. I'm from the ToS forums and a Dutch forum, and I met silver during the tournament thingy on MU so I joined his game
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #148 on: August 30, 2019, 05:25:21 pm »

Hold on, who is this 0Ix person? What's your deal?
Hey. I'm from the ToS forums and a Dutch forum, and I met silver during the tournament thingy on MU so I joined his game

Well welcome to forum, hope you enjoy it!
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MiX

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #149 on: August 30, 2019, 05:35:57 pm »

So wait, are you against always dueling now? And why on earth would you assume we would always win on town vs. scum?

I think the PR part makes it better (because the downside's really small IMO) and I assumed that because otherwise it would just be same probability as random lynching.

That makes zero sense

if we were ever going to lynch scum D1 then surely in 6 days we can determine which of 2 players is scum right?

Might be inconsistent, but...eh. Basically, if we're assuming we can do better than random lynching in a given D1, then we can do better than a 50/50 in a town vs scum duel, right? 100% scum lynch might be overkill, but I'm not sure what percentage's best.

Welcome back Robz! Missed you. You are pro-duel but you're voting MiX who is also pro-duel I think. why?

You're right, I misread his "I am against both of those things" post.

I will instead vote for you, due to your stated anti-duel position. Vote: Jotheonah
Hey everyone btw, my first game here

Why would being anti-duel be scummy..? He explained clearly why and I must say, it'd good reasoning

Are you pro or anti dueling?

Hold on, who is this 0Ix person? What's your deal?
Hey. I'm from the ToS forums and a Dutch forum, and I met silver during the tournament thingy on MU so I joined his game

Hello! Tell us about yourself: gender, town meta, scum meta, your-forum meta, how many games you've played/overall experience, what you know about us...that should help.
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