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Author Topic: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Game over ; Mafia wins flawlessly)  (Read 145512 times)

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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #100 on: August 30, 2019, 10:58:25 am »

I don't think this is how scum!MiX plays day one in this setup. The votes-that-aren't-really votes thing especially is something that seems so scummy that scum wouldn't do it.

I think that scum!mix is self-aware enough to know that this is how town!mix would probably open things up and emulate it. Nothing he's said so far screams town to me

vote: mix

TOWN

But I think there's one thing I wouldn't do:

We shouldn't do either of those things.

Im glad this is so obvious to you that you dont have to explain or interrogate it. But for us plebes, mind expounding?

That's actually good discussion, which I don't do. Feel free to talk about it, I think my stance's just the general default stance about the setup and I don't really have arguments for or against it.

I would've discussed the setup N0 with my buddies so I would have some arguments supporting my thinking. I actually have none because I didn't think about it at all (not even now, maybe I should).


Also I guess people are voting, so whatever.

Vote: Glooble

I thought about that, but honestly it's kind of null; I think people overestimate how much scum actually discusses things N0 because as scum, you don't want to come in looking like you're "already playing", you want to look like you're trying to get your feet
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EFHW

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #101 on: August 30, 2019, 11:12:30 am »

Hi. Not totally caught up, but MiX's ideas are almost the exact opposite of mine. I'll have more time to elaborate later.
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Awaclus

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #102 on: August 30, 2019, 11:16:06 am »

Hi. Not totally caught up, but MiX's ideas are almost the exact opposite of mine. I'll have more time to elaborate later.

MiX's ideas
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #103 on: August 30, 2019, 11:21:53 am »

I'm the SK
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #104 on: August 30, 2019, 11:22:14 am »

Vote: ss
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #105 on: August 30, 2019, 11:25:12 am »

Having read all of this, let's instead Vote: mix
Trying too hard on the "too scummy to be scum " angle
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Glooble

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #106 on: August 30, 2019, 11:28:12 am »

I don't think this is how scum!MiX plays day one in this setup. The votes-that-aren't-really votes thing especially is something that seems so scummy that scum wouldn't do it.

I think that scum!mix is self-aware enough to know that this is how town!mix would probably open things up and emulate it. Nothing he's said so far screams town to me

vote: mix

I agree that MiX is self-aware but I also think that MiX could find townier and scummier lines of play that both read as authentically MiX-like and I don't think he chooses the scummiest one as scum.

OTOH, We always try to lynch MiX day one and we never succeed, so maybe MiX is counting on that trend continuing.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #107 on: August 30, 2019, 11:44:09 am »

Vote Count 1.1

Glooble (1): MiX
MiX (4): Awaclus, jotheonah, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302

Not Voting (9): DatSwan, mcmcsalot, Glooble, Robz888, Debatepro, pubby, e, Uncleeurope, EFHW

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 1 ends at Sep 1, 06:30 forum time. That is in 42h 46m.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2019, 04:43:17 pm by silverspawn »
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Robz888

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #108 on: August 30, 2019, 12:53:12 pm »

Vote: MiX

I am pro-duel. Wildly pro-duel! We should all vote yes and if you vote against it I will advocate your lynch.

Nice to be back in a game, not that I have enough time for it, but oh well!
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jotheonah

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #109 on: August 30, 2019, 01:07:54 pm »

Welcome back Robz! Missed you. You are pro-duel but you're voting MiX who is also pro-duel I think. why?
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jotheonah

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #110 on: August 30, 2019, 01:22:58 pm »

I'm anti-duel.

We're in a setup with 10 town players and 3 scum players.

The duel is between two randomly chosen players.

So, this is a conditional probability which I can never remember how to do...

There's a 10/13 (76.9%) chance the first random pick is town. If they are, there's a 9/12 (75%) the second one is town.

So there's a 57.6% chance a random selection is town vs town.
We can use the same math reversed (3/13 x 2/12) to figure out the probability of scum vs scum (3.8%), which means the remaining 39.6% of the time it'll be scum vs town.)

So, knowing nothing else about the duellers, that means voting for the duel is voting for a 57% chance of a guaranteed mislynch and a 40% chance of a 50/50. Those do not seem like good odds.

TL;DR I'm only going to vote for the duel if I already think one of the selected players is scum.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #111 on: August 30, 2019, 01:39:55 pm »

Lynching MiX again I see.

I am pro-duel got the record. Now to read joth's post to see if he can convince me otherwise
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Joseph2302

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #112 on: August 30, 2019, 01:40:56 pm »

Vote: MiX

I am pro-duel. Wildly pro-duel! We should all vote yes and if you vote against it I will advocate your lynch.
The votes for dual/no dual are secret though

PPE:1
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #113 on: August 30, 2019, 01:41:28 pm »

I'm anti-duel.

We're in a setup with 10 town players and 3 scum players.

The duel is between two randomly chosen players.

So, this is a conditional probability which I can never remember how to do...

There's a 10/13 (76.9%) chance the first random pick is town. If they are, there's a 9/12 (75%) the second one is town.

So there's a 57.6% chance a random selection is town vs town.
We can use the same math reversed (3/13 x 2/12) to figure out the probability of scum vs scum (3.8%), which means the remaining 39.6% of the time it'll be scum vs town.)

So, knowing nothing else about the duellers, that means voting for the duel is voting for a 57% chance of a guaranteed mislynch and a 40% chance of a 50/50. Those do not seem like good odds.

TL;DR I'm only going to vote for the duel if I already think one of the selected players is scum.
It does potentially give us a one shot PR though, which is good
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #114 on: August 30, 2019, 01:43:46 pm »

I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.

Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful. 
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jotheonah

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #115 on: August 30, 2019, 01:48:16 pm »

OTOH, the nice thing about the duel is it limits us to two possible wagons that scum had no role in choosing which is attractive.
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jotheonah

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #116 on: August 30, 2019, 01:48:53 pm »

I will say, if I were scum, I would be pro-duel. Wildly pro-duel.

vote: Robz
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #117 on: August 30, 2019, 01:52:32 pm »

I saw robz on TV a few weeks ago. At least, I think it was him.

vote: robz
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Glooble

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #118 on: August 30, 2019, 01:53:55 pm »

I'm neither pro-duel nor anti-duel. I will vote for a duel if I think it has a reasonably good chance of containing scum, and I will vote against a duel if it's more likely to me that both players are town. I'm not sure I see the advantage of having a default preference for duel or no duel.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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jotheonah

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #119 on: August 30, 2019, 01:57:36 pm »

I'm neither pro-duel nor anti-duel. I will vote for a duel if I think it has a reasonably good chance of containing scum, and I will vote against a duel if it's more likely to me that both players are town. I'm not sure I see the advantage of having a default preference for duel or no duel.

This is way too sound and logical for my liking. Glooble, stop being so towny.

Wait no, keep being so townie.
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Robz888

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #120 on: August 30, 2019, 01:59:26 pm »

Welcome back Robz! Missed you. You are pro-duel but you're voting MiX who is also pro-duel I think. why?

You're right, I misread his "I am against both of those things" post.

I will instead vote for you, due to your stated anti-duel position. Vote: Jotheonah
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Robz888

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #121 on: August 30, 2019, 02:00:23 pm »

I'm anti-duel.

We're in a setup with 10 town players and 3 scum players.

The duel is between two randomly chosen players.

So, this is a conditional probability which I can never remember how to do...

There's a 10/13 (76.9%) chance the first random pick is town. If they are, there's a 9/12 (75%) the second one is town.

So there's a 57.6% chance a random selection is town vs town.
We can use the same math reversed (3/13 x 2/12) to figure out the probability of scum vs scum (3.8%), which means the remaining 39.6% of the time it'll be scum vs town.)

So, knowing nothing else about the duellers, that means voting for the duel is voting for a 57% chance of a guaranteed mislynch and a 40% chance of a 50/50. Those do not seem like good odds.

TL;DR I'm only going to vote for the duel if I already think one of the selected players is scum.

I am pro-duel because deciding between two random players sounds a lot better than the usual deal, which is tons and tons and tons of pointless Day 1 content culminating in a confused last minute lynch.
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Robz888

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #122 on: August 30, 2019, 02:00:33 pm »

I saw robz on TV a few weeks ago. At least, I think it was him.

vote: robz

Probably was!
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Robz888

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #123 on: August 30, 2019, 02:02:03 pm »

Oh, I just realized the one-shot PR thing ONLY happens if we do the duel. So doing the duel seems significantly better than not doing it. Or at least the possible benefits for town seem higher. Mafia knowing what the power is but not getting it, well, that's not such a boon for them. Upside for town is better. Way better. Duel!
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #124 on: August 30, 2019, 02:20:31 pm »

I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.

Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.

I don't think that anyone is saying we should never duel, but some people seem to be saying we should always duel, which I think is not good. We can get information out of which duels pass and which ones fail, which we lose if town just always votes yes.
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