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Author Topic: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Game over ; Mafia wins flawlessly)  (Read 176396 times)

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EFHW

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #825 on: September 12, 2019, 08:47:07 pm »

vote: joth. I think his case on Glooble reads like a gambit.
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jotheonah

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #826 on: September 12, 2019, 10:42:55 pm »

vote: joth. I think his case on Glooble reads like a gambit.


I don't really know what that means...
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #827 on: September 12, 2019, 11:02:32 pm »

vote: joth. I think his case on Glooble reads like a gambit.


I don't really know what that means...
I mean that it reads as more strategic than genuine to me.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #828 on: September 13, 2019, 04:04:40 am »

I hate that this duel happened. I think they are both town, or at least i can come up with a large list of people that are more likely skum imo before i get to either of the twins.

- both of them could be skum
- both of them could be town
- it could be one and another

I tried to pull that apart and use it to make a choice but really...

- if one flips skum, it would make me even more suspicious of the other
- if one flipped town, nothing would change in my mind

Which obviously sucks because if it is one skum one town and we choose town then i am gonna lean town on skum and if we lynch skum i am gonna lean skum in town....


I have nothing. Just nothing. The only thing i can come up with is Joth wouldn’t of switched to robz when he did if robz is skum... but that is if both Joth and robz are skum... and that is like way too much for me to even get into vca assuming at.

So yeah idk. I am gonna re read both and take it from there but my gut is to ask Joth/Glooble who they think and why a more profitable flip would be.
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jotheonah

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #829 on: September 13, 2019, 07:34:12 am »

vote: joth. I think his case on Glooble reads like a gambit.


I don't really know what that means...
I mean that it reads as more strategic than genuine to me.

Idk what to tell you. It’s as genuine a day 1 case as I’ve ever made. And strategically it’s kind of a mess.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #830 on: September 13, 2019, 07:40:08 am »

There’s just no reason for scum to be so proactive so early. Early game scum is so much better off being reactive and opportunistic. That’s the difference between me and Glooble. I brought all this attention on myself by presenting one of the first real cases of the game. Glooble had the attention forced on him and is trying his best to redirect it. One of those is a position that it’s easy to imagine scum in. The other is a position it’s easy to imagine town in.

Even Glooble acknowledges that scum!joth wouldn’t just go after him arbitrarily or for fun. That’s why he had to make up that ridiculous, convoluted thing about me being worried I wouldn’t be able to fool him — despite him expressing no trace of a scum read on me prior to me articulating one on him. So why, why on earth, as scum, would I set myself up against the player who knows me best?
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #831 on: September 13, 2019, 09:51:50 am »

There’s just no reason for scum to be so proactive so early. Early game scum is so much better off being reactive and opportunistic. That’s the difference between me and Glooble. I brought all this attention on myself by presenting one of the first real cases of the game. Glooble had the attention forced on him and is trying his best to redirect it. One of those is a position that it’s easy to imagine scum in. The other is a position it’s easy to imagine town in.

Even Glooble acknowledges that scum!joth wouldn’t just go after him arbitrarily or for fun. That’s why he had to make up that ridiculous, convoluted thing about me being worried I wouldn’t be able to fool him — despite him expressing no trace of a scum read on me prior to me articulating one on him. So why, why on earth, as scum, would I set myself up against the player who knows me best?

There's every reason for scum to be proactive early, because doing so makes you look towny.
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jotheonah

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #832 on: September 13, 2019, 09:59:42 am »

There’s just no reason for scum to be so proactive so early. Early game scum is so much better off being reactive and opportunistic. That’s the difference between me and Glooble. I brought all this attention on myself by presenting one of the first real cases of the game. Glooble had the attention forced on him and is trying his best to redirect it. One of those is a position that it’s easy to imagine scum in. The other is a position it’s easy to imagine town in.

Even Glooble acknowledges that scum!joth wouldn’t just go after him arbitrarily or for fun. That’s why he had to make up that ridiculous, convoluted thing about me being worried I wouldn’t be able to fool him — despite him expressing no trace of a scum read on me prior to me articulating one on him. So why, why on earth, as scum, would I set myself up against the player who knows me best?

There's every reason for scum to be proactive early, because doing so makes you look towny.

Sure, and that WIFOM argument exists with every "scum wouldn't do X" argument. BUT my position is that the most important thing for scum day 1 is not to look townie, it's to stay under the radar. You can worry about looking townie later on, but not being the day 1 lynch is priority number one. And despite how much we talk about lynching lurkers, we actually tend to lynch someone who DID something. Someone who put themselves out there like I did, opening myself up for scumreads. So if I'm scum, I took a big risk for a small gain. And that's a good way to lose games. Scum has to be bold sometimes, but it's when the stakes are high and something's on the line, not when it's just as easy to sit back and see what happens.
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EFHW

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #833 on: September 13, 2019, 10:21:50 am »

There’s just no reason for scum to be so proactive so early. Early game scum is so much better off being reactive and opportunistic. That’s the difference between me and Glooble. I brought all this attention on myself by presenting one of the first real cases of the game. Glooble had the attention forced on him and is trying his best to redirect it. One of those is a position that it’s easy to imagine scum in. The other is a position it’s easy to imagine town in.

Even Glooble acknowledges that scum!joth wouldn’t just go after him arbitrarily or for fun. That’s why he had to make up that ridiculous, convoluted thing about me being worried I wouldn’t be able to fool him — despite him expressing no trace of a scum read on me prior to me articulating one on him. So why, why on earth, as scum, would I set myself up against the player who knows me best?
These are all reasonable points. But scum often use the "why would I do that" defense. I don't know your motivations, but I have to pick one of you, so there it is.

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #834 on: September 13, 2019, 10:32:11 am »

There’s just no reason for scum to be so proactive so early. Early game scum is so much better off being reactive and opportunistic. That’s the difference between me and Glooble. I brought all this attention on myself by presenting one of the first real cases of the game. Glooble had the attention forced on him and is trying his best to redirect it. One of those is a position that it’s easy to imagine scum in. The other is a position it’s easy to imagine town in.

Even Glooble acknowledges that scum!joth wouldn’t just go after him arbitrarily or for fun. That’s why he had to make up that ridiculous, convoluted thing about me being worried I wouldn’t be able to fool him — despite him expressing no trace of a scum read on me prior to me articulating one on him. So why, why on earth, as scum, would I set myself up against the player who knows me best?

There's every reason for scum to be proactive early, because doing so makes you look towny.

Sure, and that WIFOM argument exists with every "scum wouldn't do X" argument. BUT my position is that the most important thing for scum day 1 is not to look townie, it's to stay under the radar. You can worry about looking townie later on, but not being the day 1 lynch is priority number one. And despite how much we talk about lynching lurkers, we actually tend to lynch someone who DID something. Someone who put themselves out there like I did, opening myself up for scumreads. So if I'm scum, I took a big risk for a small gain. And that's a good way to lose games. Scum has to be bold sometimes, but it's when the stakes are high and something's on the line, not when it's just as easy to sit back and see what happens.


I'm not at all sure that's true. What did pubby do, exactly, to end up the day 1 lynch?
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Debatepro

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #835 on: September 13, 2019, 10:48:13 am »

There’s just no reason for scum to be so proactive so early. Early game scum is so much better off being reactive and opportunistic. That’s the difference between me and Glooble. I brought all this attention on myself by presenting one of the first real cases of the game. Glooble had the attention forced on him and is trying his best to redirect it. One of those is a position that it’s easy to imagine scum in. The other is a position it’s easy to imagine town in.
Even Glooble acknowledges that scum!joth wouldn’t just go after him arbitrarily or for fun. That’s why he had to make up that ridiculous, convoluted thing about me being worried I wouldn’t be able to fool him — despite him expressing no trace of a scum read on me prior to me articulating one on him. So why, why on earth, as scum, would I set myself up against the player who knows me best?

IF Glooble can read Joth and Joth is scum, THEN your Glooble case is the smartest play because you have an initiative and tempo advantage. You have to directly confront him, holding back only delays the inevitable, and makes it more likely Glooble et al can isolate Joth’s scum partners. Killing MiX is also the smartest play. Someone (Joseph/Awaclus) will say it’s because MiX’s reads (Glooble & Town!Debate), Joth will/did say “why wouldn’t I just kill Glooble directly”.

But this reasoning is not good. IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1. Also, if Joth is Town, Scum can kill Glooble to direct attention to Joth which is also the better play (IMHO). In killing MiX, scum are able to continue to direct attention at Glooble while avoiding making Joth suspect #1. Worst case for scum partners in that case is Joth get's killed on D2, and we're left trying to isolate partners.

It would be risky for scum!glooble to NK MiX and direct attention at self. Less likely is some elaborate next level shit to orchestrate a twin fight (Town V Town).

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #836 on: September 13, 2019, 10:57:37 am »

IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1.

This is only true because I accused Glooble D1. But if I was really scum scared that Glooble would out me (again, and I think this is important, with no evidence whatsoever that he was scumreading me prior to me making my case), I would just skip the case and talk my team into nightkilling him night 1. Then Glooble would be dead and it wouldn't implicate me at all.

Also, if I were scum, don't you think one of my partners would be helping me out here? Do you really think the only person on my side would be Awaclus the monosyllabic?
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #837 on: September 13, 2019, 11:23:15 am »

IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1.

This is only true because I accused Glooble D1. But if I was really scum scared that Glooble would out me (again, and I think this is important, with no evidence whatsoever that he was scumreading me prior to me making my case), I would just skip the case and talk my team into nightkilling him night 1. Then Glooble would be dead and it wouldn't implicate me at all.

Also, if I were scum, don't you think one of my partners would be helping me out here? Do you really think the only person on my side would be Awaclus the monosyllabic?

I am on your side
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jotheonah

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #838 on: September 13, 2019, 11:32:42 am »

IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1.

This is only true because I accused Glooble D1. But if I was really scum scared that Glooble would out me (again, and I think this is important, with no evidence whatsoever that he was scumreading me prior to me making my case), I would just skip the case and talk my team into nightkilling him night 1. Then Glooble would be dead and it wouldn't implicate me at all.

Also, if I were scum, don't you think one of my partners would be helping me out here? Do you really think the only person on my side would be Awaclus the monosyllabic?

I am on your side

Thanks partner.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #839 on: September 13, 2019, 12:10:25 pm »

IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1.

This is only true because I accused Glooble D1. But if I was really scum scared that Glooble would out me (again, and I think this is important, with no evidence whatsoever that he was scumreading me prior to me making my case), I would just skip the case and talk my team into nightkilling him night 1. Then Glooble would be dead and it wouldn't implicate me at all.

Also, if I were scum, don't you think one of my partners would be helping me out here? Do you really think the only person on my side would be Awaclus the monosyllabic?

I am on your side

Thanks partner.

You are doing great, keep up the good work
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #840 on: September 13, 2019, 12:32:49 pm »

IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1.

This is only true because I accused Glooble D1. But if I was really scum scared that Glooble would out me (again, and I think this is important, with no evidence whatsoever that he was scumreading me prior to me making my case), I would just skip the case and talk my team into nightkilling him night 1. Then Glooble would be dead and it wouldn't implicate me at all.

Also, if I were scum, don't you think one of my partners would be helping me out here? Do you really think the only person on my side would be Awaclus the monosyllabic?

I disagree, I knew it before we entered the game, based on our last game (lynchpool).  I get it, one of you is going to be the Lynch, so you’ve got to do to help us find scum over the next few days. Sorry.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #841 on: September 13, 2019, 12:35:14 pm »

I'm not at all sure that's true. What did pubby do, exactly, to end up the day 1 lynch?

Fair enough. You do have to make enough of an impact to make sure the wheel of "crap we need a lynch" doesn't land on you. But I was doing that fine before my Glooble case.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #842 on: September 13, 2019, 01:20:48 pm »

Scum has an incentive to sit back in this duel and move with the herd, that way they don't put their necks on the line if/when glooble or joth flip town. If they flip scum, then they get to say they were on it.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #843 on: September 13, 2019, 04:19:37 pm »

Vote Count 2.4

Glooble (2): Awaclus, jotheonah
jothenoah (3): Glooble, Joseph2302, EFHW

Not Voting (7): Uncleeurope, DatSwan, mcmcsalot, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel, e, Debatepro

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on September 18, 05:00 forum time.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2019, 05:09:35 am by silverspawn »
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EFHW

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #844 on: September 13, 2019, 11:07:07 pm »

Scum has an incentive to sit back in this duel and move with the herd, that way they don't put their necks on the line if/when glooble or joth flip town. If they flip scum, then they get to say they were on it.
The people sitting back are mcmc, Awaclus and Eddie.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #845 on: September 14, 2019, 12:01:21 am »

Scum has an incentive to sit back in this duel and move with the herd, that way they don't put their necks on the line if/when glooble or joth flip town. If they flip scum, then they get to say they were on it.
The people sitting back are mcmc, Awaclus and Eddie.

I would also point out that despite his enthusiasm for the duel, robz hasn't actually indicated any preference to vote one way or the other
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #846 on: September 14, 2019, 02:52:18 am »

So here is my weak ass case on why I think Joth is townier than Glooble....

1) Early Game) Says he is against duel, while simotaneously attempting to math out a way to use yes votes to manipulate skum into not having any power in the decision. Towny mind set.

2)
We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else
Agreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs

We need to run some pure vanilla games so this town stops being so dependent on PRs.

- Word.


3)
All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.

Correct math:

chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%

That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.
- His math was in fact wrong because there are 14 not 13. I will admit I am bias, because I also thought there were 13 not 14. Skum doesn't make that error. Especially when posting math type stuff. He then follows it up again with more re-corrected math. Just not a line I see skum joth taking.


4)
Check-in:

Claimed yes vote
e

Probable yes vote
Robz888
Joseph2302

Claimed no vote
pubby
mcmcsalot
Glooble
ADK
EFHW
MiX

Hasn't claimed
Awaclus
Debatepro
I0X
joth
DatSwan

So unless all five of us who have yet to claim voted yes, Awaclus is right: this isn't going to tell us anything. And I'm sure you can all figure out how I voted.
- Towny. Just the vibe of it. Or at least... not skummy.


5)
I think knowing how everyone voted will be useful later when we have flips. So we might as well force people to commit to an answer now?

- super towny. skum would either argue against it or say nothing. or as a side off there would be a plan in place in which everyone would claim out... but we had the guy not posting and Awaclus on the list... and then Joth. This would be a ballzy play to make as skum unless he was the one lying about the vote... but then the spotlight is one him... so that is unlikely.


6)
I would like debate and Awaclus and 0iX to claim.
What about DatSwan?

Him too.

- I could be bias here... but this came to me as he is paying close enough attention to the game to know offhand that I clearly was voting no regardless of anything. Towny.


7)
1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.

I was being coy because there was a very specific circumstance where I might have been able to gotcha scum, but with your claim that dream is dead.



- Again biased... but I had this literal exact same idea. So, town points imo for it.


8)
I think Glooble is scum. vote: Glooble

I have been thinking this for a while but I didn't want to say it because I know some people assign a lot of weight to our reads on each other. I would ask you to pay attention to the case itself rather than that.

So this is more or less all of Glooble's posts and why they make him scummy. There are two parts to the case, plus a random scumtell.

1) He has played it as safe as one possibly could in the duel conversation, up until the point where having a strong opinion could actually help scum, at which point he developed one.

2) His case-making has been tentative, perfunctory, and unconvincing. His attempts at scumhunting read performative, and I think he's better than that when he's actually trying.

I'm neither pro-duel nor anti-duel. I will vote for a duel if I think it has a reasonably good chance of containing scum, and I will vote against a duel if it's more likely to me that both players are town. I'm not sure I see the advantage of having a default preference for duel or no duel.

This is exactly how scum positions themselves if they want to be safe however they vote. And it has the advantage of looking like a very sensible, towny position and staying neutral in the back and forth.

vote: DatSwan

Hard to articulate exactly why  but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.



clip -- Glooble's Swan case -- clip

These two posts, together and individually, just really feel to me like someone who is trying to make a case, not someone who is trying to determine who scum is.  It feels like the kind of case-making that you do when you know you’re not actually scumhunting. The fact that he states the vibe first and then makes the case further reinforces the idea that he wasn't so much looking for scum as choosing a person then building a case on them.

Well that was fun while it lasted. I now think DatSwan is town.

vote: pubby I guess?

And he immediately backs off the case when it fails to gain traction.

If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.

Safe vote explanation, set up by his prior post.

MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default

Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead

Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.

Meh. That's such a non-post.

I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.

This is actually the post that made me start looking at Glooble. Overly-apologetic/defensive is my top scumtell, though I know not everyone’s a fan.

Also for now I want to Vote: ADK

My theory being that if there's a duel with a scum on it, then that's 50/50 that the scum does, compared to 3/14 with no duel

So in my mind, the no duel makes it slightly more likely that one of the duellers were scum. And as I'm agreeing more with the e logic, ADK seems like a better vote

What you're missing is the fact that the scum in this scenario have two people who they know will vote for their opponent if necessary. That makes getting involved in the duel a lot safer for them. I think if I were scum I would vote for the duel unless the townie I was up against had a ton of towncred. And frankly, neither ADK nor e had that amount of towncred going into this vote.

This isn’t scummy in and of itself, but if scum voted no, it behooves scum to get town looking at claimed yes-voters.

- As previously mentioned... he doesn't need to go through this effort to vote for Glooble... he can just do it based on meta and it wouldn't be looked at.


9)
This is not a do or die case for me. I like playing with Glooble and I'd rather not D1 lynch him. And certainly I could be wrong, though my gut says I'm not. So my question, as always, is … what else ya got?

- This is too skummy to come from skum.


10)
vote: debatepro
Look at the current wagons:

Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (4): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, MiX, jotheonah
pubby (4): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus

Man, if the twin fight doesn't have scum in it...I'll wake up from the dream.

- so after this the wagon on Debate dies down, like down to 2 people. After that Joth switches to Pubby, putting them at L1. The viable options were Robz, Pubby, Debate. Debate died. Skum in that spot (first off if joth is skum then debate is not)... but skum in that spot would not just sit there until everyone else had placed their votes on the other two wagons waiting for their own vote to look super suspicious. They would of been off that debate wagon ASAP. He does then switch to robz... which is weird, but not weird enough to negate everything else.



I will follow up with another weak ass case on why I think Glooble is skummier than Joth shortly...


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Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #847 on: September 14, 2019, 02:52:57 am »

for now

Vote: Glooble
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #848 on: September 14, 2019, 03:28:05 am »

Weak ass case on why I think Glooble is skummier than Joth...

1)
So is it a bad idea to vote yes on the duel d1?

I think it's a bad idea if you think both combatants are town and a good idea if you think one of them is scum.

- OK... Day 1... 2 players are selected after 48 hours. There are no reads. this is just a non-point that seems overly towny. it could also just be towny.


2)
I don't think this is how scum!MiX plays day one in this setup. The votes-that-aren't-really votes thing especially is something that seems so scummy that scum wouldn't do it.

I think that scum!mix is self-aware enough to know that this is how town!mix would probably open things up and emulate it. Nothing he's said so far screams town to me

vote: mix

I agree that MiX is self-aware but I also think that MiX could find townier and scummier lines of play that both read as authentically MiX-like and I don't think he chooses the scummiest one as scum.

OTOH, We always try to lynch MiX day one and we never succeed, so maybe MiX is counting on that trend continuing.

- Again, super open ended. Kind of "MiX doesn't act this way as skum... but MiX would know that". Gives a back door for someone they admit to know is targeted a lot day 1. OTOH MiX was the NK... which seems just SUPER FREEKING WEIRD (whole other thing to bring up there). MiX always gets suspected at some point. It didn't happen day 1 really, so killing them is just a super odd choice.


3)
I'm neither pro-duel nor anti-duel. I will vote for a duel if I think it has a reasonably good chance of containing scum, and I will vote against a duel if it's more likely to me that both players are town. I'm not sure I see the advantage of having a default preference for duel or no duel.

- This falls into the category of "Glooble doesn't post shit without thinking it through first".... "There is no default"??? of course there is a default. The default should un-arguably be to vote no unless you think someone is likely skum (as they actually like.. said in this post)... so that is off.


4)
vote: DatSwan

Hard to articulate exactly why  but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.

Please try, do you disagree with his analysis? Do you think the analysis is pushing us in a direction? Do you think the analysis is redundant? Do you think town!swan is unlikely to make analysis like that? Do you think scum!swan benefits from that analysis post?

Day 1 Duel: It is 100%, almost unarguably, wrong to go for the duel on Day 1.
I am not saying the duel concept is bad. For every negative there is a potential positive. Examples:
a) Items - Town could get a PR, or skum could get the fake claim.

b) % chance vs control vs plurality - it would seem the % chance of having a skum selected day 1 is fairly similar to randomly choosing a player to lynch day 1. The difference is that it does take some control away from skum in the duel setting. Without the duel we need 8 to lynch, with the duel it is just majority. However, on day one we assume we will lynch town... that does not change just because there is a duel. So it gives skum less control over keeping one of their own alive, but only if one of their own is selected... if it is TownvTown... it is all bad news.


---This is the important one---
c) Information - When we isolate the field to 2 players the info we have to look back on is EXTREMELY LIMITED. If we roll SkumVTown and go to lynch it could prove useful. However, that cannot be an expectation. If the mod selects player A and player B to duel and we have to choose between them... we can still just say no and have the chance at lynching player A or Player B. The argument against would be to put skum in a tough spot with plurality and take the duel to force a lynch... but it is day one... so the only people that actually know anything are skum.

This post is sort of null on the balance-  he starts with "100%, inarguably wrong" but then follows it up with a post that sort of presents the arguments for and against, so its hardly "unarguable". But that kind of bold, black and white statement feels to me like scum!swan trying to get town points by taking a strong stance. Then bullet point b is just a lot of talking without saying much of anything, which is scummy. I will give Swan town points for point C though, it's a good point and not something I would necessarily bring up as scum.

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.

The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.

1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.

2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

This was the post that felt really scummy to me. I think it's just the way he's setting up expectations for exactly how he thinks scum will play it. Maybe so he can act differently and then use his theory for how scum would play to defend his play/ his teammates' play as townie? I don't know, it's not a strong case, he just feels off to me.

- Bias again. But this was weak ass reasoning. I get the perspective, and then they bailed on it. But it struck me as advantageous at the time... which is normally how I get mislynched.


5)
Well that was fun while it lasted. I now think DatSwan is town.

vote: pubby I guess?

- So this is the unvote and move to pubby. Puts pubby at 4. I was getting no traction. I guess that is null, but notable.


6)
If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.

- Super lame and straightforward reasoning that I would not use if it wasn't heads up... but getting a no vote in quick is skummy by comparison to Joth's approach.


7)
MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default

Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead

Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.

Meh. That's such a non-post.

I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.

- Backing down again super easy. Weird for Gloobs.


8)
Look, last game I had a scummy feeling about pingpongsam all game, but I never acted on it because I didn't have evidence. It turned out pps was scum. A few games ago on lynchpool I caught scum!shraeye based pretty much entirely on a gut read that I couldn't articulate. So I resolved to start trusting my reads more, hence the vote for Swan without explanation. Then mcmcsalot called me on it and everybody said they were townreading Swan, so I looked more closely, and figured out what it was I found scummy, but I also found some towny stuff in that reread. I didn't back off because the lynch wasn't gaining traction, I backed off because he made a post that felt very townie and changed my read on him.

I'm flattered that you think I'm better than this as town, but the fact is my day 1 cases as town pretty much always suck (and often they're on DatSwan.)

- Totally accurate. Except they bailed on me really quick this time. Normally I get a tunnel.


9)
Your case on me, though, is, frankly below your usual standards.
Like, I guess its a fine day one case? It's completely wrong, but so subjective that there's nothing in it that I can argue against.

- Bias again.. again again... this is how I find most people respond to cases on them Day 1 when skum when they have time on their side. They just dismiss it.


10)
1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.

I was being coy because there was a very specific circumstance where I might have been able to gotcha scum, but with your claim that dream is dead.

At the last minute, I voted yes for the duel. It was a change in my previous thinking. For one thing, ADK had been scumread by Glooble, who I tend to trust, and e wasn’t having an exceptionally townie game. It felt like they were both decent day 1 lynches. And partly I felt it would be better for the vote to be closer, for this scenario we’re in right now.


Here's a thing - joth is saying he, at least partially, based his vote on my scum case against ADK, which was actually against DatSwan. Joth had a whole day to decide yes or no. You'd think he would have reread. I did. But if he had reread he would have seen that my case was on Swan. This seems like an easier mistake for scum!joth to have made while coming up with a townie justification for his vote.

- Everything about this makes sense. Except for the last part where Joth makes this mistake as skum while coming up with justification for their vote. If anything they could make the mistake on an original case... but to be defending oneself as skum... you don't make that blunder imo.




and then there is a continuous amount of posts that I cannot find skummy. Which is why this duel sucks. However, there are a few things that are weird:

1) If Glooble thought Joth was skum, why did Glooble follow Joth's vote around everywhere?

2) If Glooble thought Joth was skum, why would Glooble agree to post this reads list (at Joth's request) after the only other player that posted was conf!town MiX:
DatSwan - leaning town but still a tiny bit suspicious
Awaclus - he is acting less belligerent than usual, but I refuse to lynch him for that
jotheonah - not that scummy but scummier than anyone else to me right now
Glooble - town
Joseph2302 - null
2.71828..... - I could be convinced to vote here. I should reread.
0Ix - who?
Debatepro - can't remember anything he's done this game
MiX - townish
EFHW - town
A Drowned Kernel - probably town, despite our disagreements about how scum would act
Robz888 - null, this new meta sucks
pubby - was leaning scum, now leaning null
mcmcsalot - town


3) I am about as pro info as you get as town. But lists on Day 1 are almost always a horrible idea for Town. Suppose that is points against both Joth and Glooble though:
As scum I would absolutely just make shit up, but I don't do that as town. So if I have no strong scumreads, you get a readlist with no strong scumreads.

There is a third option you know, besides "make stuff up" and "make a list with no strong scumreads". I wonder if you can guess what it is...

Pull an Awaclus and refuse to make a list?


4)
Glooble (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (1): Glooble

Can both of you (especially Glooble) explain what this is supposed to mean to everyone else?

This is my way of asking "why is he the scummiest player" to both of you.

I still think joth’s more than likely scum. But you’re right, it’s not a useful place to have my vote right now.

I’m gonna join this Robz train. He’s a very good joth partner candidate.

vote: Robz

- Skummy



So yeah... I am Glooble over Joth.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #849 on: September 14, 2019, 03:28:23 am »

Glooble/Joth: Who is skum?
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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