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Author Topic: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Game over ; Mafia wins flawlessly)  (Read 176405 times)

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MiX

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #300 on: September 02, 2019, 02:37:48 pm »

It wouldn't be an issue in every case, but could become an issue if the numbers for and against were almost equal and the scum wants to lie about their vote.

It's only an issue if a scummy vote is the majority, which it shouldn't ever be.

It's really easy to come up with this scenario: Two townies are dueled, 5 town vote no, 3 town vote yes, 2 scum vote yes. Now when everyone claims you'll realized that scum wanted the duel to pass, which means it's not two scum. This is why it's useful, these scenarios can happen. Also you'll realize that no matter what split scum makes, you'll end up in conflicts. Thus claiming votes is good.

What you mean is this scenario: Two townies are dueled, 5 people vote no, 5 people vote yes. Now when everyone claims you'll have no way of telling the two apart.

Yes. Sorry, I was too excited at finding that scenario to think about that part, was focused on "5 town say no so obviously they're all town!"

I think knowing how everyone voted will be useful later when we have flips. So we might as well force people to commit to an answer now?

Awaclus/faust answer: Everything else will be more useful later when we have flips.

MiX answer: Yeah that makes sense? I got nothing other than "that is factually true and you are speaking the truth in this sentence."
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #301 on: September 02, 2019, 02:45:27 pm »

I'm very much in favor of everyone revealing how they voted. I would especially like to know e's vote given that he was in the "always duel" camp

I voted yes. I was looking forward to dueling, and lynching, you.

We would have had so much fun. Probably want the smartest vote and town saved me from myself, but I voted yes to the duel
I'm not sure why mcmc thinks it's scummy to vote yes for a duel you are in, but it is surprising.  ADK is always very towny, regardless of alignment.  Did you think you could win?

I think town is more likely to be afraid of any duel involving them and mafia is more likely to think they can win the duel and take the risk.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Joseph2302

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #302 on: September 02, 2019, 03:08:59 pm »

I firmly believe that dueling for PRs is a valid strategy.

For all of you who are sold on ADK being town and assume I lose the duel, you don't trust ADK with a PR?

D1 lynch now gives us no benefit unless we catch scum. D1 duel gives us a PR that we can use.

Also, the information gained from no duel is significantly less because so many people claimed to be in the "never duel D1" camp. Assume more people expressed approval of a D1 duel and it doesn't happen. Then we learn something. Or people expressed no duel and then a duel happens. Again, we learn something.

Here we learned that people didn't want to duel, and there was no duel.

Exciting
Most sensible post today I think. And exactly why I (unsurprisingly) vote for the duel.
Because it's more info, and we'd probably get a PR out of it
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #303 on: September 02, 2019, 03:15:55 pm »

Also for now I want to Vote: ADK

My theory being that if there's a duel with a scum on it, then that's 50/50 that the scum does, compared to 3/14 with no duel

So in my mind, the no duel makes it slightly more likely that one of the duellers were scum. And as I'm agreeing more with the e logic, ADK seems like a better vote
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

MiX

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #304 on: September 02, 2019, 03:17:47 pm »

Also for now I want to Vote: ADK

My theory being that if there's a duel with a scum on it, then that's 50/50 that the scum does, compared to 3/14 with no duel

So in my mind, the no duel makes it slightly more likely that one of the duellers were scum. And as I'm agreeing more with the e logic, ADK seems like a better vote

Scum easily votes on whatever here and we still get no duel, look at how many people were against it, so the fact that there's no duel means nothing. While publically they say whatever so neither of these point to ADK being scummier.

Vote: Joseph
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jotheonah

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #305 on: September 02, 2019, 03:21:17 pm »

7/7 split would default to no duel, right?
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MiX

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #306 on: September 02, 2019, 03:24:38 pm »

7/7 split would default to no duel, right?

Ties are duel.
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MiX

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #307 on: September 02, 2019, 03:25:58 pm »

7/7 split would default to no duel, right?

Ties are duel.

Also, I want Debatepro to claim their vote right now.
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Glooble

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #308 on: September 02, 2019, 03:45:01 pm »

Also for now I want to Vote: ADK

My theory being that if there's a duel with a scum on it, then that's 50/50 that the scum does, compared to 3/14 with no duel

So in my mind, the no duel makes it slightly more likely that one of the duellers were scum. And as I'm agreeing more with the e logic, ADK seems like a better vote

What you're missing is the fact that the scum in this scenario have two people who they know will vote for their opponent if necessary. That makes getting involved in the duel a lot safer for them. I think if I were scum I would vote for the duel unless the townie I was up against had a ton of towncred. And frankly, neither ADK nor e had that amount of towncred going into this vote.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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2.71828.....

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #309 on: September 02, 2019, 03:47:00 pm »

Also for now I want to Vote: ADK

My theory being that if there's a duel with a scum on it, then that's 50/50 that the scum does, compared to 3/14 with no duel

So in my mind, the no duel makes it slightly more likely that one of the duellers were scum. And as I'm agreeing more with the e logic, ADK seems like a better vote

What you're missing is the fact that the scum in this scenario have two people who they know will vote for their opponent if necessary. That makes getting involved in the duel a lot safer for them. I think if I were scum I would vote for the duel unless the townie I was up against had a ton of towncred. And frankly, neither ADK nor e had that amount of towncred going into this vote.

I mean, we didn't have "town cred" or "scum cred"

I hadn't really gotten into the game that well, I was very excited for the duel to be a forcing function to make that happen. And I suppose it did in a way
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Debatepro

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #310 on: September 02, 2019, 03:48:27 pm »

If someone other than MiX wants me to claim I will, but near zero is really zero.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #311 on: September 02, 2019, 03:53:07 pm »

I don't think claiming is that important since everything happened just as planned. A majority of people said they didn't want to duel in the first 48 hours and violà! No duel
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2.71828.....

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #312 on: September 02, 2019, 03:53:47 pm »

If something strange happened like the duel actually taking place a claim would definitely be in order.
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MiX

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #313 on: September 02, 2019, 04:02:36 pm »

If someone other than MiX wants me to claim I will, but near zero is really zero.

Pfft, you just don't want to follow my plans because I'm the one saying it? But if I sheep it off someone else then it's suddently a good plan? Think for yourself for once!

Yes I am pissed by this line of thought. Please give me a reason to not follow what I say.

I don't think claiming is that important since everything happened just as planned. A majority of people said they didn't want to duel in the first 48 hours and violà! No duel

It's really not important anymore, except for Debatepro's vote.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #314 on: September 02, 2019, 04:21:40 pm »

I don't think claiming is that important since everything happened just as planned. A majority of people said they didn't want to duel in the first 48 hours and violà! No duel

Disagree, I still think everyone should claim. I don't think it gives scum too many reads info and it absolutely is info town can use both now and later.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Awaclus

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #315 on: September 02, 2019, 04:30:12 pm »

7/7 split would default to no duel, right?

Ties are duel.

Also, I want Debatepro to claim their vote right now.

I want Debatepro to not claim their vote right now.
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Awaclus

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #316 on: September 02, 2019, 04:31:31 pm »

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Debatepro

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #317 on: September 02, 2019, 04:37:06 pm »

For the record, and I think my short meta confirms this, i am persuaded by reasons and logic, except when voting for MiX. I always go with my gut when voting for MiX.

Right now the best reason is for not revealing. Awaclas - "give scum info they can use."
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MiX

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #318 on: September 02, 2019, 04:43:18 pm »

For the record, and I think my short meta confirms this, i am persuaded by reasons and logic, except when voting for MiX. I always go with my gut when voting for MiX.

Right now the best reason is for not revealing. Awaclas - "give scum info they can use."

Do you think scum cares especially about YOUR vote? Because they don't. But I do.

If you think I'm scum why aren't you voting me?
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Debatepro

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #319 on: September 02, 2019, 04:45:28 pm »

I don't think claiming is that important since everything happened just as planned. A majority of people said they didn't want to duel in the first 48 hours and violà! No duel

Disagree, I still think everyone should claim. I don't think it gives scum too many reads info and it absolutely is info town can use both now and later.

How does town use this info now and later? It's easy for any scum to pull threads together to spin false narrative and nudge votes towards a specific town.
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Awaclus

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #320 on: September 02, 2019, 04:58:36 pm »

Do you think scum cares especially about YOUR vote? Because they don't.

Yes they do. Let's say e and ADK are both scum, then knowing that Debatepro didn't vote for the duel is useful knowledge that helps them decide who to NK.
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MiX

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #321 on: September 02, 2019, 05:04:07 pm »

Do you think scum cares especially about YOUR vote? Because they don't.

Yes they do. Let's say e and ADK are both scum, then knowing that Debatepro didn't vote for the duel is useful knowledge that helps them decide who to NK.

But not voting is so default that it basically says nothing about his reads. For all we know he didn't vote! Besides it's TWO DAYS OF READS are you telling me revealing two days of reads, of a player that didn't appear untill afterwards, says anything at all about their reads at the end of D1? No it doesn't! The upside is small but so clearly bigger than the downside.
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Awaclus

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #322 on: September 02, 2019, 05:09:10 pm »

But not voting is so default that it basically says nothing about his reads. For all we know he didn't vote! Besides it's TWO DAYS OF READS are you telling me revealing two days of reads, of a player that didn't appear untill afterwards, says anything at all about their reads at the end of D1? No it doesn't! The upside is small but so clearly bigger than the downside.

If not voting is the default, then it would be extra bad if scum found out that he voted yes.
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Robz888

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #323 on: September 02, 2019, 05:09:30 pm »

Ugh you people suck so badly. I voted for the duel and was looking forward to it.

Here’s to a completely random Day 1 culminating in a last minute mislynch of whomever isn’t on at the time, yay
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MiX

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #324 on: September 02, 2019, 05:16:36 pm »

But not voting is so default that it basically says nothing about his reads. For all we know he didn't vote! Besides it's TWO DAYS OF READS are you telling me revealing two days of reads, of a player that didn't appear untill afterwards, says anything at all about their reads at the end of D1? No it doesn't! The upside is small but so clearly bigger than the downside.

If not voting is the default, then it would be extra bad if scum found out that he voted yes.

This is false, no one has any hidden information about anyone's roles thus this """information" about his """reads""" is worth ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! Not now, at least. What you're saying is truthful things at a later stage of the game, then applying them when it's not true for towncred and "Awaclus points". No, I'm not letting you.

Vote: Awaclus
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