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[pubby]

There's only 4 PRs available from duels. If you think the game is going 5+ days, it's not critical to get a duel PR n1. They get better later in the game anyway.

[MiX]

There's only 4 PRs available from duels. If you think the game is going 5+ days, it's not critical to get a duel PR n1. They get better later in the game anyway.

Oh but it is, because later days could have really bad duel targets, so we should try to maximize how many good duels we can get as early as possible.

What do you think of your wagon?

[pubby]

The first duel is going to have really bad targets too so I don't see what you mean. 

IMO the case (or lack thereof) against me is great fun while everyone waits for the duel to start.

[Robz888]

I often think good (early) PR luck is town’s best chance to win, so that too makes me pro duel.

[mcmcsalot]

The first duel is going to have really bad targets too so I don't see what you mean. 

IMO the case (or lack thereof) against me is great fun while everyone waits for the duel to start.

ugh double vote pubby...

Are you seriously just going to not play until the duel starts because if so you are tremendously anti-town

[Awaclus]

I often think good (early) PR luck is town’s best chance to win, so that too makes me pro duel.

Town's best chance to win is to not screw up.

[mcmcsalot]

I often think good (early) PR luck is town’s best chance to win, so that too makes me pro duel.

more ugh, maybe I am just in a grouchy mood but come on. Early luck is towns best chance to win...you've just given up trying to guess who mafia is until later when cases have been made for you to sheep and there are flips to use systematic wagon analysis.

[Swowl]

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.

Correct math:

chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%

That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.

Is this math accurate? I will be the first to concede my math skills vs others on this forum, but when I run it I get more like...
TvT = 64%
TvS = 32%
SvS = 4%

[Swowl]

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.

Correct math:

chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%

That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.

Is this math accurate? I will be the first to concede my math skills vs others on this forum, but when I run it I get more like...
TvT = 64%
TvS = 32%
SvS = 4%

actually I just read MCMCs post and agree with that even over my own

[jotheonah]

It’s wigging me out how townie Awaclus is being.

[Swowl]

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.

The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.

1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.

2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Actually I don't understand anything about this post. I fail to see how the non town vs town scenarios also drag on more than the average game.

Me neither
And scum vs scum will just masquerade out like town vs town I guess?

I mean in that day yes. My point was that based on % chance, we will will assume (if a skum were to flip in a duel) on later days that it was town v skum... which could be troublesome.

[Swowl]

How about this:

Create a match up of two players in which today, on Day 1... in like 12 hours... you believe that:
a) At least one is skum
b) You can get a lynch through on that player

If you are a good enough player to think that you actually have the ability to isolate out an individual player within the first 48 hours of the game as skum... to the extent that you want to help provide the lack of ability to change your mind later in the day... they bully to you I guess. I just don't think that is a realistic mindset for someone to have.

The PRs were added into the game mechanics to balance the fact that during the early parts of the game it works against town to say yes to a duel.
The PRs were given the opportunity to be given to skum as fake claims to help balance the game later on when town may be able to use the duels to their advantage, so that they are not GTD a potential advantage on the duel and on getting the PR.

I have no idea when it will switch in this game as it dependent upon flips and you know... playing the game and all. But today, on Day 1, taking a duel is a bad idea.

Just like think about how many times you have thought during Day 1 Twilight "oh yeah, nice that was the lynch I wanted... I am pretty sure we found skum" vs "oh yeah, nice that was the lynch I wanted... if they are not skum it will give a lot of information".

The duel eliminates the potential generation of information regarding any players that are not in the duel. And if both of those players are town... that is not good.

[Glooble]

Well that was fun while it lasted. I now think DatSwan is town.

vote: pubby I guess?

[EFHW]

Let's try unexplained votes.

Vote: Glooble

I always try to build these airtight cases and am usually wrong. Let's see how this works without a case

So you just picked him at random? Are you expecting people to join?

[EFHW]

I'm having a hard time taking the pro-Day 1-duel proponents seriously. These seem to be joseph and Robz, with MiX flitting in and out.

vote: Robz

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 1.3

Glooble (1): e
Robz888 (3): pubby, DatSwan, EFHW
jotheonah (1): Robz888
MiX (3): Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302
pubby (4): MiX, mcmcsalot, jotheonah, Glooble

Not Voting (2): Debatepro, Uncleeurope

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 1, 06:30 forum time. That is in 2h 18m. And the same thing happens in the other way around -- the player goes into the other dimension, which I call the void, and then can then use his weapons.

And the weapons are the two weapons that you get in the void. The weapon that was called the sword, is called the hammer and it is the same weapon, but for each dimension, there is a hammer and a sword. The hammer and the sword are two weapons for each dimension, because the void is a dimension which is two different weapons from other weapons.

[silverspawn]

Thread locked!

[silverspawn]

[static] ...

of a small car. A crew member was cowering inside, frantically typing on a smartphone.

"Help me, r/craftbees," he said, either to his phone or to himself. "Get the fear away! Send a private message to the mod!"

"Sir?" I asked. "What are you talking about?"

"It must be between 1 and 99 words! Otherwise Fetophobia will take you! The fingernails will keep growing! AND THEN YOU ARE MADE OUT OF PIPES! Only r/craftbees can save us now!"

"Sir are you-"

"I WILL CARRY OUT THIS DUEL TO THE END. IT IS THEM OR I."

"Them?"

"The fear! Clapophobia! Dysentery! Geniophobia! Arachnophobia! Frostophobia! Oh r/craftbees, I pray to thee, take the fear away."

"Okay," I said, "I think you"

... [static]

[silverspawn]

The potential duel is between A Drowned Kernel and 2.71828....... You have 24 hours to vote in your QTs on whether or not the duel takes place. The vote should be bolded and phrased unambiguously (for example, oppose duel).

[silverspawn]

[static] ...

are clearly losing it. Get out of there."

Ignoring his rambling, I grabbed him by the arm and pulled him to the door.

"Mental Health is a serious issue, you know? But we know as a community that we know too much, we know too much about a lot of stuff that we don't know, we don't know all the facts, but we can say these things on the ground. And I am going out there and trying to bring in the facts. And now I'm getting you to the Psych Ward."

"Only r/craftbees knows the way to the Psych ward."

"Shut up. I'm a journalist."

... [static]

[silverspawn]

No duel takes place.

Thread unlocked!

[Joseph2302]

Interesting, no duel. So we can have a RVs D1 instead. Great.........

[MiX]

Okay...

Time for plan: everyone claims what they voted in this great order based on everyone's scumreads (but mostly mine):

pubby
Robz
EFHW
Swan
MiX
Joseph
Awaclus
OIx
Glooble
mcmcsalot
joth

Debatepro should say what his vote immediately when he gets here, and ADK/E can say it whenever I don't think it matters they probably both denied it, I don't want them to delay the claim train. I don't know pubby's timezone but someone wake him up.

This is the plan I was talking about before. It's probably a waste of time but I really liked this duel and I think this will provide an interesting split of players.

Scum doesn't have daychat right? That would blow everything up.

[Debatepro]

Hi. Not totally caught up, but MiX's ideas are almost the exact opposite of mine. I'll have more time to elaborate later.

MiX's ideas
$5 Action
You may trash a Treasure from your hand. Gain a Treasure to your hand costing up to $3 less than it.

This is the funniest mafia post i've ever read! It should be preserved for future generations.

@All - Apologies WCD and I bought another house, so consequently we have to sell our current home and downsize to half the square footage. I'll be better going forward.

Odds of me doing anything MiX says is near zero.

[MiX]

Hi. Not totally caught up, but MiX's ideas are almost the exact opposite of mine. I'll have more time to elaborate later.

MiX's ideas
$5 Action
You may trash a Treasure from your hand. Gain a Treasure to your hand costing up to $3 less than it.

This is the funniest mafia post i've ever read! It should be preserved for future generations.

@All - Apologies WCD and I bought another house, so consequently we have to sell our current home and downsize to half the square footage. I'll be better going forward.

Odds of me doing anything MiX says is near zero.

Yooo what happened to us being buddies? What's all this friendly hostility from? I wanted someone to buddy when I noticed faust wasn't in the game, you're great for that right?

Agreed that's a great post, I didn't know I could become a dominion card, especially in mafia.

What did you vote?