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Author Topic: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Game over ; Mafia wins flawlessly)  (Read 176466 times)

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Swowl

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #175 on: August 31, 2019, 05:01:00 am »

silver, will we learn the for and against  breakdown of the votes, or just the result?

You will only learn whether or not the duel happens.

creating a pool of claims (as in "I voted yes" vs "I voted no" to the duel) could be useful down the road to isolate skum pools. They will obviously say what is beneficial to them at the time, but in later days it could come into play.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #176 on: August 31, 2019, 05:03:34 am »

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.

The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.

1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.

2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #177 on: August 31, 2019, 05:04:33 am »

silver, will we learn the for and against  breakdown of the votes, or just the result?

I think the answer is obviously just the result because it says we vote privately in our qt. I think you know that and asking is scummy.

I agree with MCMC.
So MCMC is probably skum and EFHW is either way.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #178 on: August 31, 2019, 05:21:12 am »

silver, will we learn the for and against  breakdown of the votes, or just the result?

I think the answer is obviously just the result because it says we vote privately in our qt. I think you know that and asking is scummy.

I agree with MCMC.
So MCMC is probably skum and EFHW is either way.
Not following you here
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Joseph2302

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #179 on: August 31, 2019, 05:27:57 am »

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else
Agreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Swowl

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #180 on: August 31, 2019, 05:28:31 am »

silver, will we learn the for and against  breakdown of the votes, or just the result?

I think the answer is obviously just the result because it says we vote privately in our qt. I think you know that and asking is scummy.

I agree with MCMC.
So MCMC is probably skum and EFHW is either way.
Not following you here

I never agree with MCMC so they are prob!skum. You, and everyone else, I could go either way one.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #181 on: August 31, 2019, 05:29:10 am »

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Robz hates day 1s
Robz rolls skum
Robz plays meta.

This is a bad idea.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #182 on: August 31, 2019, 05:29:34 am »

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else
Agreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs


Also skummy.

Duel Day 1 takes away Day 1 info. Horrible idea.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #183 on: August 31, 2019, 05:31:18 am »

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Robz hates day 1s
Robz rolls skum
Robz plays meta.

This is a bad idea.
If we dual D1 then we get to see how it works and how people play during the duel
If we don't duel D1, then we'll just have a boring D1 with a random crapshoot at the end like most D1s

PPE: 1
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #184 on: August 31, 2019, 05:32:47 am »

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else
Agreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs


Also skummy.

Duel Day 1 takes away Day 1 info. Horrible idea.
What D1 info? Every game I play we just pick random wagons, and near the deadline we just panic and kill the easiest person to get a lynch for

Or in plurality lunches like this, we just have  a number of random wagons, just without the random panic at the end
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #185 on: August 31, 2019, 05:34:27 am »

What D1 info? Every game I play we just pick random wagons, and near the deadline we just panic and kill the easiest person to get a lynch for

The D1 info that results in D2 not being "just pick random wagons, and near the deadline we just panic and kill the easiest person to get a lynch for".
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #186 on: August 31, 2019, 05:47:19 am »

What D1 info? Every game I play we just pick random wagons, and near the deadline we just panic and kill the easiest person to get a lynch for

The D1 info that results in D2 not being "just pick random wagons, and near the deadline we just panic and kill the easiest person to get a lynch for".
This
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MiX

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #187 on: August 31, 2019, 06:01:37 am »

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Stop. Playing. Your. Meta. Every. Single. Game.

Vote: Swan, pubby's so scum here I'm probably never moving this vote untill duel starts.
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MiX

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #188 on: August 31, 2019, 06:05:10 am »

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.

The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.

1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.

2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Actually I don't understand anything about this post. I fail to see how the non town vs town scenarios also drag on more than the average game.
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silverspawn

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #189 on: August 31, 2019, 06:15:59 am »

Vote Count 1.2

Robz888 (2): jotheonah, pubby
jotheonah (1): Robz888
pubby (2): MiX, mcmcscalot
MiX (3): Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302

Not Voting (6): DatSwan, e, Glooble, Debatepro, Uncleeurope, EFHW

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 1 ends at Sep 1, 06:30 forum time. That is in 24h 14m.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2019, 04:43:21 pm by silverspawn »
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Joseph2302

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #190 on: August 31, 2019, 06:38:48 am »

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.

The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.

1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.

2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Actually I don't understand anything about this post. I fail to see how the non town vs town scenarios also drag on more than the average game.
Me neither
And scum vs scum will just masquerade out like town vs town I guess?
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Glooble

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #191 on: August 31, 2019, 08:36:10 am »

vote: DatSwan

Hard to articulate exactly why  but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #192 on: August 31, 2019, 10:10:25 am »

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.

The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.

1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.

2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

So I disagree slightly with this. We find scum not scumhunting just as often as we find them pushing bad cases on town. TvT is going to force scum to take a stance instead of hiding behind day 1 is tough I don't have many reads i'll sheep x's case on y ect. TvS makes scum choose to bus or protect, instead of sitting around hoping the wagon on their partner just goes away. SvS what do you mean by absolve a player from lynch pool? I don't think we should make any assumptions about the player that survives a duel.

I think the main difference between day 1 duel and later duels is just we have way worse reads to make an informed vote.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

jotheonah

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #193 on: August 31, 2019, 10:10:55 am »

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else
Agreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs

We need to run some pure vanilla games so this town stops being so dependent on PRs.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #194 on: August 31, 2019, 10:11:58 am »

vote: DatSwan

Hard to articulate exactly why  but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.

Please try, do you disagree with his analysis? Do you think the analysis is pushing us in a direction? Do you think the analysis is redundant? Do you think town!swan is unlikely to make analysis like that? Do you think scum!swan benefits from that analysis post?
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #195 on: August 31, 2019, 10:12:35 am »

vote: DatSwan

Hard to articulate exactly why  but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.

I’m terrible at reading Swan, but I am strongly townreading him for his posts here.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #196 on: August 31, 2019, 10:16:03 am »

Vote Count 1.2

Robz888 (2): jotheonah, pubby
jotheonah (1): Robz888
pubby (1): MiX
MiX (3): Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302

Not Voting (7): DatSwan, e, mcmcsalot, Glooble, Debatepro, 0Ix, EFHW

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 1 ends at Sep 1, 06:30 forum time. That is in 24h 14m.

I am voting Pubby
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #197 on: August 31, 2019, 10:16:40 am »

Vote: Pubby

So is it a bad idea to vote yes on the duel d1?
I saw robz on TV a few weeks ago. At least, I think it was him.

vote: robz
I'm only going to vote yes on the duel today if it involves one of the fools wanting to duel so badly.

Three posts spaced very evenly throughout the day where decent conversations have been had inbetween and yet he doesn't participate in the conversation at all.
Poses a question instead of giving his own opinion (could be trying to start conversations but as a hard stance had already been taken by someone the pro town approach is to disect that stance not ask the group)
Then really doesn't take his question anywhere and posts a throwaway comment as well as a useless vote.
Then takes a hard stance on duel voting but gives a very jokey not serious reason.

Overall very anti town and engaged while still trying.

And I would like his response to this.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #198 on: August 31, 2019, 10:23:24 am »

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.

Correct math:

chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%

That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #199 on: August 31, 2019, 10:24:40 am »

In another topic, I’m locked in a pitched battle between my old “always suspect Robz day 1” meta and my new “always suspect MiX day 1” meta.
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