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[silverspawn]

      
      
Welcome! Scroll down to the second post for Setup and Flavor information.      
      
Mod: silverspawn      
      
Tags: SpaceAnemone
      
Players      

• DatSwan – VT (died day 3)
• Awaclus – VT (died night 4)
• jotheonah – Jailkeeper (died night 3)
• Glooble –VT (lost duel day 2)
• Joseph2302 – VT (endgamed)
• 2.71828..... – Mafia (survived)
• 0Ix replaced by Uncleeurope Day 1 – VT (died night 4)
• Debatepro– VT (endgamed)
• MiX – VT (died night 1)
• EFHW – Mafia (survived)
• A Drowned Kernel – VT (died day 5)
• Robz888 – VT (endgamed)
• pubby – VT (died day 1)
• mcmcsalot – Mafia (survived)

            
Day 1 start – Day 1 duel – Day 2 start – Day 2 duel – Day 3 start – Day 4 start – Day 5 start
      
The Rules:       
      
The Rules of Mafia apply. In addition:      

• Game days will last 2 + 1 + 6 RL days (read the setup post for details). Game nights will last 1 RL-day.
• Each player will have a personal QT.
• You are not allowed to quote from personal QTs.
• You are not allowed to ask about the phrasing of PMs from the mod. This includes but is not limited to night action results.
• You are not allowed to break any of these rules
• If three days and three nights in a row pass without anyone dying, the game ends and town wins.
• Mod posts will be bold and gray. Your posts shouldn't be gray and only be bolded occasionally if at all.
• FLAVOR WILL BE WRITTEN IN UPPER CASE AND IN COURIER NEW. OR MAYBE IT WON'T. BUT IT MIGHT. IN ANY CASE, YOUR TEXT SHOULD NEVER BE WRITTEN IN COURIER NEW AND ONLY BE UPPER CASE WHEN YOU'RE TRYING TO SHOUT.
• VOTE COUNT GENERATION IN THIS GAME WILL BE AUTOMATED. EACH PLAYER HAS A LIST OF ELIGIBLE ALIASES. YOU MAY SEE THIS LIST BY TYPING LIST: PLAYERNAME.

      

[silverspawn]

...
...
... The Setup
...
... Roles
...
...
...
... VT (*10)
... Jailkeeper that is one-shot passive bulletproof
... Mafia Goon (*3)
...
... In addition, mafia has a strongman shot: once in the game when a mafia player performs the night kill, they can choose to use it. This will pierce one layer of protection, such as the JK's passive ability.
...
...
...
... Duels
... 48 hours into each day, the thread will be locked for 24 hours (unless the day has ended before that point). I will randomize two players and announce their names publicly. Everyone privately votes in their QTs about whether these two should duel for the remaining 144 hours of the day. If a majority votes yes or if the vote is tied, then the following two things will occur:

...  [1] For the rest of the day, only votes for the two dueling players are valid. All other votes (including a no-lynch vote) will have no effect. At the end of the day, the player with more votes is lynched (if it is a tie, a virtual coin is flipped). Either one may still be lynched earlier via majority vote.
...
...  [2] At the start of the following night, a random player is selected. If they are town, they receive one of a list of one-shot powers (randomly selected) which they may use that night. If they are mafia, they will be told what that power is but will not receive it. This list of powers is fixed pre-game by the mod but is not revealed. All powers in it are either standard or standard with minor variations. The same power will not be selected twice in the game (regardless of whether the player was town or mafia). The list consists of four entries. In the case that all four are used up throughout the game, the duel mechanic disappears and further days are 240 hours long.
...
...
...
...
...
... Flavor
...
... FLAVOR WILL BE GPT-2 BASED. GPT-2 IS AN AI THAT CAN WRITE THINGS. IT WILL WRITE THINGS FROM THE COUNT OF THINGS IN TEXAS AS WELL AS PASSAGES FROM THE INTERNET INSTEAD OF GPT-1. IT MAY NOT WRITE THINGS IN ALL EACH TEXAS AREAS AT THE SAME TIME. THINGS FROM OTHER TEXAS AREAS THAT TEXAS HAS TICKETS FOR MAY OR MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THIS, BUT I WILL MAKE A TIP FOR YOU TO USE WHEN YOU HAVE THOSE TICKETS AS WELL AS PICK UP THE INTERNET TO SEE WHICH TEXAS THINGS ARE TO BE USED FOR THE TICKET AND WHEN WE MAKE OTHER PRACTICES ABOUT THEM. SOUNDTRACK AND OTHER MUSIC ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THIS POLICY.
...
... EACH PLAYER SIGNING UP IS REQUIRED TO SEND A PRIVATE MESSAGE TO THE MOD.
... THE MESSAGE SHOULD BE BETWEEN 1 AND 99 WORDS.
... NO FURTHER RESTRICTIONS APPLY.
... FLAVOR WILL BE BASED ON THIS MESSAGE.
...
...

[Swowl]

convoluted, complicated, and all around guaranteed to be a cluster - totally /in
(awesome set up idea!)

[Awaclus]

/in

[silverspawn]

To clarify: you should send a private message immediately upon signing up in thread, not during n0 or something like that.

[faust]

Is there a reasoning why days with duel mechanic have 8 days of discussion and once the duel mechanic goes away it's 10 days?

[silverspawn]

The main reason is that 240 is easier to divide by 24 than 192. The secondary reason is that the two extra days are compensation for not being able to do more duels. I think it's unlikely to occur either way.

[jotheonah]

oh boy

[jotheonah]

/in

[Glooble]

/in

[Joseph2302]

/in

[WestCoastDidds]

So weird! /in

[Uncleeurope]

Are you going to be using the PMs standalone or all thrown together?

[silverspawn]

Are you going to be using the PMs standalone or all thrown together?

Probably thrown together

[jotheonah]

Is no lynch allowed prior to the duel, or on non-duel days?

[silverspawn]

Both.

[shraeye]

Oh Lord, the font.

[silverspawn]

Are you not fond of the font?

[0Ix]

/in

[silverspawn]

Awesome, great to have you! I can let you know over discord when this starts, so you don't have to check in regularly.

Three things you should do though:

– make a post outside of the forum games section to get your post count up to 1 (so that you don't have to answer this question every time you submit a post). For example here.

– take the civility pledge

– PM me with a message to base flavor on (as I said in the flavor post)

[Debatepro]

/in

[jotheonah]

somebody tell pops to get in here. I can tell he's itching to play.

[Awaclus]

Pops, get in here.

[popsofctown]

/in

[silverspawn]

DatSwan and pops are still missing the private message. See flavor post.

[Swowl]

Sorry - other game has my attention. Will send now

[popsofctown]

Is this actually a thing that will fire?

[silverspawn]

Is this actually a thing that will fire?

Maybe after the other game ends?

[popsofctown]

/out

[WestCoastDidds]

I’ll need to put until unless this goes a ways into Ash’s game.

[WestCoastDidds]

I’ll need to put until unless this goes a ways into Ash’s game.

After we are a ways into Ash’s game rather

[jotheonah]

/out just in case

(I’ll /in after my V/LA)

[EFHW]

I just play one game at a time and I'm signed up for ash's, so /tag.

You might want to make the duels shorter. In the game we just played with gladiators,  duel days tended to drag a bunch.

[silverspawn]

/out just in case

(I’ll /in after my V/LA)

don't worry, it will most likely still be open after you're back

I just play one game at a time and I'm signed up for ash's, so /tag.

You might want to make the duels shorter. In the game we just played with gladiators,  duel days tended to drag a bunch.

any other opinions on this?

[WestCoastDidds]

I’m back in the US, and debate wants to play in this one....so, /out

[silverspawn]

[WestCoastDidds]

I know, right? But until we can can play as teams, its not so good for us to play together. But this game will be awesome!  I am quite certain of it!

[jotheonah]

I know, right? But until we can can play as teams, its not so good for us to play together. But this game will be awesome!  I am quite certain of it!

I believe there was an experiment like that in the beginning days of the forum. People made new accounts that combined their screennames. It was goofy.

[Glooble]

I know, right? But until we can can play as teams, its not so good for us to play together. But this game will be awesome!  I am quite certain of it!

I believe there was an experiment like that in the beginning days of the forum. People made new accounts that combined their screennames. It was goofy.

Yes, 2-headed giant mafia. I believe that was, weirdly, my first time as scum.

[Glooble]

Never mind, I was town. My partner was Archetype.

[silverspawn]

Yeah, unfortunately we really can't have one hydra team and the rest not hydra.

[popsofctown]

Lol.  Mafia scum allows games to have just one hydra all the time.  There are lots of grumpy old men (like me) who complain and say it's not fair, and about 40% of games forbid the practice at signups.  But it's something you -can- do.

Now that one of the hydras in one of my games replaced out, I'm currently participating in a game with exactly one hydra.

[Swowl]

i mean not for this game... but like an all hydra format would be fun right? Like on FDS not MS. We all know each other, no one is gonna go and create another handle just to win the game or whatever. That could be a good time I think.

#SwowlThoughts (make it happen WCD)

[silverspawn]

Lol.  Mafia scum allows games to have just one hydra all the time.  There are lots of grumpy old men (like me) who complain and say it's not fair, and about 40% of games forbid the practice at signups.  But it's something you -can- do.

Now that one of the hydras in one of my games replaced out, I'm currently participating in a game with exactly one hydra.

Okay, noted. But I don't like it, therefore we won't do it in this game

I personally dislike hydra games in general. I see it as a mechanic that makes reading people harder, which is not desirable.

[shraeye]

Are you not fond of the font?

Not so much. It's a fine typewriter font, with equal spacing for every letter, but not fun to read in a computer.  It certainly stands out and suppose there's a retro-futuristic feel to it, but that's not my cup of tea

[popsofctown]

Lol.  Mafia scum allows games to have just one hydra all the time.  There are lots of grumpy old men (like me) who complain and say it's not fair, and about 40% of games forbid the practice at signups.  But it's something you -can- do.

Now that one of the hydras in one of my games replaced out, I'm currently participating in a game with exactly one hydra.

Okay, noted. But I don't like it, therefore we won't do it in this game

I personally dislike hydra games in general. I see it as a mechanic that makes reading people harder, which is not desirable.

Yes that is my own grumpy old man sentiment I like them banned.

[Uncleeurope]

Lol.  Mafia scum allows games to have just one hydra all the time.  There are lots of grumpy old men (like me) who complain and say it's not fair, and about 40% of games forbid the practice at signups.  But it's something you -can- do.

Now that one of the hydras in one of my games replaced out, I'm currently participating in a game with exactly one hydra.

Okay, noted. But I don't like it, therefore we won't do it in this game

I personally dislike hydra games in general. I see it as a mechanic that makes reading people harder, which is not desirable.

Yes that is my own grumpy old man sentiment I like them banned.

Awwww, you guys would make a perfect hydra.

[popsofctown]

I thought I already /outed but /out
I am focusing a lot on open setups lately

[silverspawn]

You did /out already. But I now properly removed you from the list.

[silverspawn]

So does anyone want to join?

[jotheonah]

back /in

[Cuzz]

/in

[EFHW]

/in

[silverspawn]

nice! we're getting somewhere.

You two still need to send me the flavor message (see second post)

[2.71828.....]

/in

[MiX]

/in

[Cuzz]

bah, /out, sorry

[A Drowned Kernel]

/in

[Robz888]

/in

[pubby]

/in

[mcmcsalot]

/in

[EFHW]

That's the hammer?

pubby, you didn't announce L-1 

[jotheonah]

the brothers Robzalot! good to see ya!

[jotheonah]

+pubby too, who I am starting to take a shine to

[silverspawn]

That was sudden.

I'm still missing a couple of flavor messages. I'll send out private PMs for reminders. Once they're in, we can start.

[silverspawn]

Aww yeah. OpenAI has just (well, 6 days ago) released a larger model of GPT-2. That means the auto-complete should now be even better.

Good job waiting until now to sign up! And if fits really well with the end of my vacation.

[SpaceAnemone]

/tag :-)

[silverspawn]

We're good to go! Randomization will now take place and PMs will go out soon.

[silverspawn]

General note about GPT-2: I usually try out several completions and pick the one that's the most entertaining, which is usually not the one that makes the most sense. Don't be fooled into thinking GPT-2 is always this weird.

Night 0 will end 24 hours after all players have confirmed.

[silverspawn]

One person still has not given any reaction to their PM. That person is  the person who was behind the PM's comments while the PM had already said that he was against the PM's remark.

He also said that the decision in the PMO was taken without the government, the media, MPs, even his own government colleagues.

A leader from BJP, who did not wish to be named, said, "I feel like crying...how come nothing's been done to stop the PM from calling a man a 'roommate'. How come the PM did nothing to curb the comment?

"The PM should stand up straight from his seat and make his point! I don't know who is in charge on his behalf but I urge you all to stand up for the PM's voice!

"We will get to the bottom of the matter...The PM is absolutely right, this is not right," he said.

[silverspawn]

The people who have randomized scum in this game have signup numbers (1+). We don't know who these people are, how many, or why they were there. And honestly, if we knew, we'd let someone else do this. What we'd like to know is if this is intentional, and if it will work. If you would like to volunteer as a team, go ahead. We will gladly give you your own team name if you would like.

What is scum?

The definition for scum is anyone who has been forced into a game without knowing they're there. So, you should be familiar with the word 'forced' for any situation where you're forced into something against your will. In short, if you're forced to play something on your own time and you didn't choose to play it, you've been scum.

We want to make a game out of playing scum. A game with a good chance to see you on the other team. We want to play a game where the people we get to know and where our friends join us to have fun. We

[silverspawn]

Ok, last confirmation is in. Game will start 24 hours from now.

[silverspawn]

...
...
... THE MISSILE KNOWS WHERE IT IS AT ALL TIMES. IT KNOWS THIS BECAUSE IT KNOWS WHERE IT ISN'T. BY SUBTRACTING WHERE IT IS FROM WHERE IT ISN'T, OR WHERE IT ISN'T FROM WHERE IT IS (WHICHEVER IS GREATER), IT OBTAINS A DIFFERENCE, OR DEVIATION. THE GUIDANCE SUBSYSTEM USES DEVIATIONS TO GENERATE CORRECTIVE COMMANDS TO DRIVE THE MISSILE FROM A POSITION WHERE IT IS TO A POSITION WHERE IT ISN'T, AND ARRIVING AT A POSITION WHERE IT WASN'T, IT NOW IS.

... The passengers of this missle know that ?????, or the person in charge of the missile, can only be one of two. Is mafia lurking among them? The answer is icky: the U.S. Justice Department says it's not, and the Obama administration isn't just not letting the IRS know. We're talking about the IRS, not the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

They are all wrong, though, as mafia is totally there.

In the center of the missle, there is a large banner. It reads,

How to find mafia in five easy steps:

1. Visit the town to find out if your neighbor is involved in mafia.

2. Know the town.

2.1 Find out about the town's crime.

2.2 Find out about mafia on the street.

2.3 Know their story.

3. Create a story.

3.1 Follow the crime.

3.2 Find out who the victim is and try to figure out who you are supposed to kill.

3.3 Go to the next town.

4. Learn about mafia's ways.

4.1 Learn about mafia's culture and history.

4.2 Know who can help you in every town.

4.3 Learn more.

5. Follow the mafia.

5.1 Find out what are the mafia's rules.

5.2 Follow the mafia.

But inside of the ship, something is changing. Only a flicker at first, it slowly picks up the pace. The engines are louder and more powerful, the lights and sounds of the ship getting louder. Even though I am in command of this ship, I fear that the crew will not want to get on board. In a matter of moments they are all on the walkway, the door for the cargo bay opens and everyone is rushed into it. The sound of something hitting the deck behind me is heard and the door shuts. The air is heavy with worry and everyone is tense. It's almost like that same thing will happen to you next.

"Please."

I look up at the sky, my gaze focused in the direction of the ship. It seems like the ship has gone off course and is drifting. I can still hear the engines of her, her landing gear creaking as she makes her way down the walkway to the cargo bay. I watch a few of the others in the ship watching this with grim expressions. I slowly turn and head for the cargo bay and enter it.

It's a large container the size
... ... ... [static]

[silverspawn]

Day 1 starts now!

[MiX]

Fun flavor. Very funny flavor. Even better setup. Good reads early in the day will be important (for D2 and on) which is something I struggle at. RVS is essencially worthless because we should always accept the first duel. I look forward to say nothing for 2 days.

Vote: Debatepro

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 1.0

Not Voting (14): DatSwan, Awaclus, jotheonah, Glooble, Joseph2302, 2.71828....., Uncleeurope, Debatepro, MiX, EFHW, A Drowned Kernel, Robz888, pubby, mcmcsalot

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 1 ends at Sep 1, 06:30 forum time. That is in 48 hours.

[MiX]

Hey, you can't just start the day and THEN provide a votecount, now I wanna delete my post

Vote: ss

[Awaclus]

Hey, you can't just start the day and THEN provide a votecount, now I wanna delete my post

Vote: ss

Why are you voting in italics?

Vote: MiX

[MiX]

Hey, you can't just start the day and THEN provide a votecount, now I wanna delete my post

Vote: ss

Why are you voting in italics?

Vote: MiX

Votes are useless untill the duel starts.

[Awaclus]

Hey, you can't just start the day and THEN provide a votecount, now I wanna delete my post

Vote: ss

Why are you voting in italics?

Vote: MiX

Votes are useless untill the duel starts.

That's not true. We can lynch someone before the duel starts or we can vote no on the duel.

[MiX]

We shouldn't do either of those things.

[Glooble]

Votes are only useless if you think the only purpose of votes is to eventually lynch someone.

[Glooble]

Which is usually not the purpose of RVS.

[MiX]

They should build up early wagons that can then steamroll into viable lynches. In this setup, you get 2 days of voting into 2 completely random wagons that you have to accept.

You can still RVS: I'm still "voting" Debatepro, just don't think it's useful here. Feel free to prove me wrong.

[MiX]

Think of it this way: RVS votes are very tiny amounts of pressure. Votes early means the wagon's slightly easier to make. In this setup early votes have nothing to do with who's voted up. So they're not pressuring anyone. No pressure means scum doesn't react differently. Which in turn means they're pretty useless.

Ah, I miss being alive...

[pubby]

So is it a bad idea to vote yes on the duel d1?

[jotheonah]

We shouldn't do either of those things.

I’m glad this is so obvious to you that you don’t have to explain or interrogate it. But for us plebes, mind expounding?

[MiX]

We shouldn't do either of those things.

I’m glad this is so obvious to you that you don’t have to explain or interrogate it. But for us plebes, mind expounding?

That's actually good discussion, which I don't do. Feel free to talk about it, I think my stance's just the general default stance about the setup and I don't really have arguments for or against it.

[Glooble]

They should build up early wagons that can then steamroll into viable lynches. In this setup, you get 2 days of voting into 2 completely random wagons that you have to accept.

You can still RVS: I'm still "voting" Debatepro, just don't think it's useful here. Feel free to prove me wrong.

If you're so sure nothing will come of it, why not actually vote debatepro?

[Glooble]

So is it a bad idea to vote yes on the duel d1?

I think it's a bad idea if you think both combatants are town and a good idea if you think one of them is scum.

[MiX]

They should build up early wagons that can then steamroll into viable lynches. In this setup, you get 2 days of voting into 2 completely random wagons that you have to accept.

You can still RVS: I'm still "voting" Debatepro, just don't think it's useful here. Feel free to prove me wrong.

If you're so sure nothing will come of it, why not actually vote debatepro?

I keep track of all votes and I don't wanna do that for these. Yes I could just vote, but meh.

So is it a bad idea to vote yes on the duel d1?

I think it's a bad idea if you think both combatants are town and a good idea if you think one of them is scum.

I don't think 2 days is enough to get that good of a read on someone. In D2 and on it's a real decision, but not here IMO.

[Glooble]

I don't think 2 days is enough to get that good of a read on someone. In D2 and on it's a real decision, but not here IMO.

Meh. Really depends on how active those two days are.

[jotheonah]

vote: MiX

rarely have I seen someone say so many antitown things so quickly

[MiX]

vote: MiX

rarely have I seen someone say so many antitown things so quickly

as scum.

[Glooble]

I don't think this is how scum!MiX plays day one in this setup. The votes-that-aren't-really votes thing especially is something that seems so scummy that scum wouldn't do it.

[jotheonah]

I don't think this is how scum!MiX plays day one in this setup. The votes-that-aren't-really votes thing especially is something that seems so scummy that scum wouldn't do it.

These kinds of arguments give scum and town alike cartblanche to play in scummy and unhelpful ways. Let's punish bad play. If we mislynch because of it every now and then, it's a sacrifice for the greater good.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Fun flavor. Very funny flavor. Even better setup. Good reads early in the day will be important (for D2 and on) which is something I struggle at. RVS is essencially worthless because we should always accept the first duel. I look forward to say nothing for 2 days.

Vote: Debatepro

Why should we always accept the first duel?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Maybe I should read everything before posting

I don't think that "accept duals by default" should be our attitude, people should only vote yes for a dual if they have a solid scumread on one of the participants

[A Drowned Kernel]

I don't think this is how scum!MiX plays day one in this setup. The votes-that-aren't-really votes thing especially is something that seems so scummy that scum wouldn't do it.

I think that scum!mix is self-aware enough to know that this is how town!mix would probably open things up and emulate it. Nothing he's said so far screams town to me

vote: mix

[MiX]

I don't think this is how scum!MiX plays day one in this setup. The votes-that-aren't-really votes thing especially is something that seems so scummy that scum wouldn't do it.

I think that scum!mix is self-aware enough to know that this is how town!mix would probably open things up and emulate it. Nothing he's said so far screams town to me

vote: mix

TOWN

But I think there's one thing I wouldn't do:

We shouldn't do either of those things.

I’m glad this is so obvious to you that you don’t have to explain or interrogate it. But for us plebes, mind expounding?

That's actually good discussion, which I don't do. Feel free to talk about it, I think my stance's just the general default stance about the setup and I don't really have arguments for or against it.

I would've discussed the setup N0 with my buddies so I would have some arguments supporting my thinking. I actually have none because I didn't think about it at all (not even now, maybe I should).


Also I guess people are voting, so whatever.

Vote: Glooble

[A Drowned Kernel]

I don't think this is how scum!MiX plays day one in this setup. The votes-that-aren't-really votes thing especially is something that seems so scummy that scum wouldn't do it.

I think that scum!mix is self-aware enough to know that this is how town!mix would probably open things up and emulate it. Nothing he's said so far screams town to me

vote: mix

TOWN

But I think there's one thing I wouldn't do:

We shouldn't do either of those things.

I’m glad this is so obvious to you that you don’t have to explain or interrogate it. But for us plebes, mind expounding?

That's actually good discussion, which I don't do. Feel free to talk about it, I think my stance's just the general default stance about the setup and I don't really have arguments for or against it.

I would've discussed the setup N0 with my buddies so I would have some arguments supporting my thinking. I actually have none because I didn't think about it at all (not even now, maybe I should).


Also I guess people are voting, so whatever.

Vote: Glooble

I thought about that, but honestly it's kind of null; I think people overestimate how much scum actually discusses things N0 because as scum, you don't want to come in looking like you're "already playing", you want to look like you're trying to get your feet

[EFHW]

Hi. Not totally caught up, but MiX's ideas are almost the exact opposite of mine. I'll have more time to elaborate later.

[Awaclus]

Hi. Not totally caught up, but MiX's ideas are almost the exact opposite of mine. I'll have more time to elaborate later.

MiX's ideas
$5 Action
You may trash a Treasure from your hand. Gain a Treasure to your hand costing up to $3 less than it.

[Joseph2302]

I'm the SK

[Joseph2302]

Vote: ss

[Joseph2302]

Having read all of this, let's instead Vote: mix
Trying too hard on the "too scummy to be scum " angle

[Glooble]

I don't think this is how scum!MiX plays day one in this setup. The votes-that-aren't-really votes thing especially is something that seems so scummy that scum wouldn't do it.

I think that scum!mix is self-aware enough to know that this is how town!mix would probably open things up and emulate it. Nothing he's said so far screams town to me

vote: mix

I agree that MiX is self-aware but I also think that MiX could find townier and scummier lines of play that both read as authentically MiX-like and I don't think he chooses the scummiest one as scum.

OTOH, We always try to lynch MiX day one and we never succeed, so maybe MiX is counting on that trend continuing.

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 1.1

Glooble (1): MiX
MiX (4): Awaclus, jotheonah, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302

Not Voting (9): DatSwan, mcmcsalot, Glooble, Robz888, Debatepro, pubby, e, Uncleeurope, EFHW

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 1 ends at Sep 1, 06:30 forum time. That is in 42h 46m.

[Robz888]

Vote: MiX

I am pro-duel. Wildly pro-duel! We should all vote yes and if you vote against it I will advocate your lynch.

Nice to be back in a game, not that I have enough time for it, but oh well!

[jotheonah]

Welcome back Robz! Missed you. You are pro-duel but you're voting MiX who is also pro-duel I think. why?

[jotheonah]

I'm anti-duel.

We're in a setup with 10 town players and 3 scum players.

The duel is between two randomly chosen players.

So, this is a conditional probability which I can never remember how to do...

There's a 10/13 (76.9%) chance the first random pick is town. If they are, there's a 9/12 (75%) the second one is town.

So there's a 57.6% chance a random selection is town vs town.
We can use the same math reversed (3/13 x 2/12) to figure out the probability of scum vs scum (3.8%), which means the remaining 39.6% of the time it'll be scum vs town.)

So, knowing nothing else about the duellers, that means voting for the duel is voting for a 57% chance of a guaranteed mislynch and a 40% chance of a 50/50. Those do not seem like good odds.

TL;DR I'm only going to vote for the duel if I already think one of the selected players is scum.

[2.71828.....]

Lynching MiX again I see.

I am pro-duel got the record. Now to read joth's post to see if he can convince me otherwise

[Joseph2302]

Vote: MiX

I am pro-duel. Wildly pro-duel! We should all vote yes and if you vote against it I will advocate your lynch.

The votes for dual/no dual are secret though

PPE:1

[Joseph2302]

I'm anti-duel.

We're in a setup with 10 town players and 3 scum players.

The duel is between two randomly chosen players.

So, this is a conditional probability which I can never remember how to do...

There's a 10/13 (76.9%) chance the first random pick is town. If they are, there's a 9/12 (75%) the second one is town.

So there's a 57.6% chance a random selection is town vs town.
We can use the same math reversed (3/13 x 2/12) to figure out the probability of scum vs scum (3.8%), which means the remaining 39.6% of the time it'll be scum vs town.)

So, knowing nothing else about the duellers, that means voting for the duel is voting for a 57% chance of a guaranteed mislynch and a 40% chance of a 50/50. Those do not seem like good odds.

TL;DR I'm only going to vote for the duel if I already think one of the selected players is scum.

It does potentially give us a one shot PR though, which is good

[2.71828.....]

I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.

Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful. 

[jotheonah]

OTOH, the nice thing about the duel is it limits us to two possible wagons that scum had no role in choosing which is attractive.

[jotheonah]

I will say, if I were scum, I would be pro-duel. Wildly pro-duel.

vote: Robz

[pubby]

I saw robz on TV a few weeks ago. At least, I think it was him.

vote: robz

[Glooble]

I'm neither pro-duel nor anti-duel. I will vote for a duel if I think it has a reasonably good chance of containing scum, and I will vote against a duel if it's more likely to me that both players are town. I'm not sure I see the advantage of having a default preference for duel or no duel.

[jotheonah]

I'm neither pro-duel nor anti-duel. I will vote for a duel if I think it has a reasonably good chance of containing scum, and I will vote against a duel if it's more likely to me that both players are town. I'm not sure I see the advantage of having a default preference for duel or no duel.

This is way too sound and logical for my liking. Glooble, stop being so towny.

Wait no, keep being so townie.

[Robz888]

Welcome back Robz! Missed you. You are pro-duel but you're voting MiX who is also pro-duel I think. why?

You're right, I misread his "I am against both of those things" post.

I will instead vote for you, due to your stated anti-duel position. Vote: Jotheonah

[Robz888]

I'm anti-duel.

We're in a setup with 10 town players and 3 scum players.

The duel is between two randomly chosen players.

So, this is a conditional probability which I can never remember how to do...

There's a 10/13 (76.9%) chance the first random pick is town. If they are, there's a 9/12 (75%) the second one is town.

So there's a 57.6% chance a random selection is town vs town.
We can use the same math reversed (3/13 x 2/12) to figure out the probability of scum vs scum (3.8%), which means the remaining 39.6% of the time it'll be scum vs town.)

So, knowing nothing else about the duellers, that means voting for the duel is voting for a 57% chance of a guaranteed mislynch and a 40% chance of a 50/50. Those do not seem like good odds.

TL;DR I'm only going to vote for the duel if I already think one of the selected players is scum.

I am pro-duel because deciding between two random players sounds a lot better than the usual deal, which is tons and tons and tons of pointless Day 1 content culminating in a confused last minute lynch.

[Robz888]

I saw robz on TV a few weeks ago. At least, I think it was him.

vote: robz

Probably was!

[Robz888]

Oh, I just realized the one-shot PR thing ONLY happens if we do the duel. So doing the duel seems significantly better than not doing it. Or at least the possible benefits for town seem higher. Mafia knowing what the power is but not getting it, well, that's not such a boon for them. Upside for town is better. Way better. Duel!

[A Drowned Kernel]

I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.

Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.

I don't think that anyone is saying we should never duel, but some people seem to be saying we should always duel, which I think is not good. We can get information out of which duels pass and which ones fail, which we lose if town just always votes yes.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I will say, if I were scum, I would be pro-duel. Wildly pro-duel.

vote: Robz

Would you be so open about it, though? If you were scum and you thought that always doing the duel was good for scum, I imagine you wouldn't overtly push it in the thread

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'm anti-duel.

We're in a setup with 10 town players and 3 scum players.

The duel is between two randomly chosen players.

So, this is a conditional probability which I can never remember how to do...

There's a 10/13 (76.9%) chance the first random pick is town. If they are, there's a 9/12 (75%) the second one is town.

So there's a 57.6% chance a random selection is town vs town.
We can use the same math reversed (3/13 x 2/12) to figure out the probability of scum vs scum (3.8%), which means the remaining 39.6% of the time it'll be scum vs town.)

So, knowing nothing else about the duellers, that means voting for the duel is voting for a 57% chance of a guaranteed mislynch and a 40% chance of a 50/50. Those do not seem like good odds.

TL;DR I'm only going to vote for the duel if I already think one of the selected players is scum.

I will say that a town vs. scum duel is not a bad situation to be in, as those are going to be the most informative

[A Drowned Kernel]

OTOH, the nice thing about the duel is it limits us to two possible wagons that scum had no role in choosing which is attractive.

They do have a role in choosing them, though, since they're a three person voting block when we're voting on the duel itself

[jotheonah]

OTOH, the nice thing about the duel is it limits us to two possible wagons that scum had no role in choosing which is attractive.

They do have a role in choosing them, though, since they're a three person voting block when we're voting on the duel itself

That's true. Which I suppose is a good argument for an "always duel" rule although it would be pretty unenforceable even if we did.

[A Drowned Kernel]

OTOH, the nice thing about the duel is it limits us to two possible wagons that scum had no role in choosing which is attractive.

They do have a role in choosing them, though, since they're a three person voting block when we're voting on the duel itself

That's true. Which I suppose is a good argument for an "always duel" rule although it would be pretty unenforceable even if we did.

I don't think I'm following your line of thought there

[MiX]

Vote: MiX

I am pro-duel. Wildly pro-duel! We should all vote yes and if you vote against it I will advocate your lynch.

Nice to be back in a game, not that I have enough time for it, but oh well!

Robz is Robz. Who knew?

I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.

Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.

Sadly it's just a random person, which sucks. Still better than nothing.

I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.

Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.

I don't think that anyone is saying we should never duel, but some people seem to be saying we should always duel, which I think is not good. We can get information out of which duels pass and which ones fail, which we lose if town just always votes yes.

When was the last time you saw town agree to something D1?


I've made a plan about duels. It's bad, inconsequential and will most likely be a waste of time. Still, it makes my opening posts have purpose so I'm proud of it.

[MiX]

Vote: pubby

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 1.2

Robz888 (2): jotheonah, pubby
jotheonah (1): Robz888
pubby (1): MiX
MiX (3): Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302

Not Voting (7): DatSwan, e, mcmcsalot, Glooble, Debatepro, Uncleeurope, EFHW

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 1 ends at Sep 1, 06:30 forum time. That is in 39h 2m.

Lunches ended. Day 2.

Day 2 [ edit ]

Day 2 was the day the second iteration of Day 1 of the new challenge began.

Day 2 [ edit ]

It happened again, with 14 living. It was almost as though we got it, just the same as before.

Round 1 of phase 1 begins at Sep 1:00 forum time. That is in 39h 2m.

Round 1 ends at Sep 2, 06:30 forum time. That is in 41h 6m.

Lunches ended. Day 2.

Day 3 [ edit ]

Day 3 was the day the third iteration of Day 1 of the new challenge began.

Day 3 [ edit ]

Day 3 was the time we got out of the house, but not before going into 3rd party servers, doing what we do best.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.

Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.

I don't think that anyone is saying we should never duel, but some people seem to be saying we should always duel, which I think is not good. We can get information out of which duels pass and which ones fail, which we lose if town just always votes yes.

When was the last time you saw town agree to something D1?


I've made a plan about duels. It's bad, inconsequential and will most likely be a waste of time. Still, it makes my opening posts have purpose so I'm proud of it.

So proposing an anti-town plan is fine, because people aren't going to do it anyway?

[MiX]

I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.

Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.

I don't think that anyone is saying we should never duel, but some people seem to be saying we should always duel, which I think is not good. We can get information out of which duels pass and which ones fail, which we lose if town just always votes yes.

When was the last time you saw town agree to something D1?


I've made a plan about duels. It's bad, inconsequential and will most likely be a waste of time. Still, it makes my opening posts have purpose so I'm proud of it.

So proposing an anti-town plan is fine, because people aren't going to do it anyway?

Oh. Sorry, those 2 are unrelated. Notice the big spacing between them.

Talking about dueling's helpful for the reasons you said, being conflicted about it is good for reads. So what you do as obv!town (such as myself) is take the most controversial stance and push it, there's always people that oppose it and BAM you have the uncertaincy to duel AND people's stances on dueling. Which for me's better than nothing.

No I didn't think about this when I started talking about it, but it works! It...hopefully works, my plans have a tedency to fail. Of about 100%. Still.

[Robz888]

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

[MiX]

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Stances about dueling on the average pairing is more important than dueling. But I am pro-dueling; as Robz said, it skips all the D1 scrambling and if we were ever going to lynch scum D1 then surely in 6 days we can determine which of 2 players is scum right? So in joth's probabilities (which are wrong, still a good baseline) we should lynch scum about...40% of the time. Because numbers are fun. And I think those are good odds, at least for D1.

[A Drowned Kernel]

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Stances about dueling on the average pairing is more important than dueling. But I am pro-dueling; as Robz said, it skips all the D1 scrambling and if we were ever going to lynch scum D1 then surely in 6 days we can determine which of 2 players is scum right? So in joth's probabilities (which are wrong, still a good baseline) we should lynch scum about...40% of the time. Because numbers are fun. And I think those are good odds, at least for D1.

If we assume we have a 50% chance of hitting scum in the case that the duel is town vs. scum, then by my calculations the odds of hitting scum are the same if we vote for the duel vs. a random lynch

...that might actually be an argument in favor of always doing the duel. I need to think about this for a second

[A Drowned Kernel]

I mean, we would essentially be committing to a random lynch, in exchange for maybe getting a PR, and the D1 lynch is usually pretty random anyway

But it feels like it's giving up a lot of town agency, since the lynch is likely to be a lot less informative, and if we think that a lot of town is dueling just to duel, then we don't even get info from the fact that the duel passed

So I think I'm back where I started, which is "vote for the duel based on reads, not just because"

[pubby]

I'm only going to vote yes on the duel today if it involves one of the fools wanting to duel so badly.

[MiX]

I mean, we would essentially be committing to a random lynch, in exchange for maybe getting a PR, and the D1 lynch is usually pretty random anyway

But it feels like it's giving up a lot of town agency, since the lynch is likely to be a lot less informative, and if we think that a lot of town is dueling just to duel, then we don't even get info from the fact that the duel passed

So I think I'm back where I started, which is "vote for the duel based on reads, not just because"

Regardless of reads a duel day is less productive than a real day because there's less things town can do. So that doesn't truly follow as perfectly as you're saying.

And I was assuming we always win on town vs scum duels, because otherwise as you said it's same chance as random lynching.

I like PRs/focus on specific wagons, but I think without the PR it would be anti-town to duel at all. I think everyone should have a base stance on dueling and then change that according to your reads on whoever's being dueled. That should be the best.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I mean, we would essentially be committing to a random lynch, in exchange for maybe getting a PR, and the D1 lynch is usually pretty random anyway

But it feels like it's giving up a lot of town agency, since the lynch is likely to be a lot less informative, and if we think that a lot of town is dueling just to duel, then we don't even get info from the fact that the duel passed

So I think I'm back where I started, which is "vote for the duel based on reads, not just because"

Regardless of reads a duel day is less productive than a real day because there's less things town can do. So that doesn't truly follow as perfectly as you're saying.

And I was assuming we always win on town vs scum duels, because otherwise as you said it's same chance as random lynching.

I like PRs/focus on specific wagons, but I think without the PR it would be anti-town to duel at all. I think everyone should have a base stance on dueling and then change that according to your reads on whoever's being dueled. That should be the best.

So wait, are you against always dueling now? And why on earth would you assume we would always win on town vs. scum?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Hold on, who is this 0Ix person? What's your deal?

[MiX]

So wait, are you against always dueling now? And why on earth would you assume we would always win on town vs. scum?

I think the PR part makes it better (because the downside's really small IMO) and I assumed that because otherwise it would just be same probability as random lynching.

[A Drowned Kernel]

So wait, are you against always dueling now? And why on earth would you assume we would always win on town vs. scum?

I think the PR part makes it better (because the downside's really small IMO) and I assumed that because otherwise it would just be same probability as random lynching.

That makes zero sense

[A Drowned Kernel]

The second part, that is

[0Ix]

Welcome back Robz! Missed you. You are pro-duel but you're voting MiX who is also pro-duel I think. why?

You're right, I misread his "I am against both of those things" post.

I will instead vote for you, due to your stated anti-duel position. Vote: Jotheonah

Hey everyone btw, my first game here

Why would being anti-duel be scummy..? He explained clearly why and I must say, it'd good reasoning

[0Ix]

Hold on, who is this 0Ix person? What's your deal?

Hey. I'm from the ToS forums and a Dutch forum, and I met silver during the tournament thingy on MU so I joined his game

[A Drowned Kernel]

Hold on, who is this 0Ix person? What's your deal?

Hey. I'm from the ToS forums and a Dutch forum, and I met silver during the tournament thingy on MU so I joined his game

Well welcome to forum, hope you enjoy it!

[MiX]

So wait, are you against always dueling now? And why on earth would you assume we would always win on town vs. scum?

I think the PR part makes it better (because the downside's really small IMO) and I assumed that because otherwise it would just be same probability as random lynching.

That makes zero sense

if we were ever going to lynch scum D1 then surely in 6 days we can determine which of 2 players is scum right?

Might be inconsistent, but...eh. Basically, if we're assuming we can do better than random lynching in a given D1, then we can do better than a 50/50 in a town vs scum duel, right? 100% scum lynch might be overkill, but I'm not sure what percentage's best.

Welcome back Robz! Missed you. You are pro-duel but you're voting MiX who is also pro-duel I think. why?

You're right, I misread his "I am against both of those things" post.

I will instead vote for you, due to your stated anti-duel position. Vote: Jotheonah

Hey everyone btw, my first game here

Why would being anti-duel be scummy..? He explained clearly why and I must say, it'd good reasoning

Are you pro or anti dueling?

Hold on, who is this 0Ix person? What's your deal?

Hey. I'm from the ToS forums and a Dutch forum, and I met silver during the tournament thingy on MU so I joined his game

Hello! Tell us about yourself: gender, town meta, scum meta, your-forum meta, how many games you've played/overall experience, what you know about us...that should help.

[mcmcsalot]

Yaaay, I'm in a mafia game again!

[A Drowned Kernel]

So wait, are you against always dueling now? And why on earth would you assume we would always win on town vs. scum?

I think the PR part makes it better (because the downside's really small IMO) and I assumed that because otherwise it would just be same probability as random lynching.

That makes zero sense

if we were ever going to lynch scum D1 then surely in 6 days we can determine which of 2 players is scum right?

Might be inconsistent, but...eh. Basically, if we're assuming we can do better than random lynching in a given D1, then we can do better than a 50/50 in a town vs scum duel, right? 100% scum lynch might be overkill, but I'm not sure what percentage's best.

That's assuming that it does end up being scum vs. town; if it's town vs. town and it passes, then scum gets a free mislynch without having to do anything

[mcmcsalot]

Okay so as usual I don't find MiX scummy at all for his brash and un-thought out accept all duels plan. I think it was either not very thought out or purposefully not very thought out, either way not alignment indicative.

I don't think a rule of accepting duels or not accepting duels is good at all. I strongly think players should decide on their own based on the likelihood of the players up for the duel containing scum. Also we should way approving duels gives us a power which tips the scales towards dueling. With day one reads being weak I think that is also a factor that points towards accepting the duel but if I am strongly town reading both players going into the duel i'm still not accepting it. I think that should be how we treat duels, Its like a forced read check and wagon lock so we dont get to end of day having and qucklynching.

Town read on Joth for the math, people overestimate scum doing that for towncred.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Okay so as usual I don't find MiX scummy at all for his brash and un-thought out accept all duels plan. I think it was either not very thought out or purposefully not very thought out, either way not alignment indicative.

I don't think a rule of accepting duels or not accepting duels is good at all. I strongly think players should decide on their own based on the likelihood of the players up for the duel containing scum. Also we should way approving duels gives us a power which tips the scales towards dueling. With day one reads being weak I think that is also a factor that points towards accepting the duel but if I am strongly town reading both players going into the duel i'm still not accepting it. I think that should be how we treat duels, Its like a forced read check and wagon lock so we dont get to end of day having and qucklynching.

Town read on Joth for the math, people overestimate scum doing that for towncred.

That's basically a summation of the so-called "anti-duel" position

[mcmcsalot]

Vote: Pubby

So is it a bad idea to vote yes on the duel d1?

I saw robz on TV a few weeks ago. At least, I think it was him.

vote: robz

I'm only going to vote yes on the duel today if it involves one of the fools wanting to duel so badly.

Three posts spaced very evenly throughout the day where decent conversations have been had inbetween and yet he doesn't participate in the conversation at all.
Poses a question instead of giving his own opinion (could be trying to start conversations but as a hard stance had already been taken by someone the pro town approach is to disect that stance not ask the group)
Then really doesn't take his question anywhere and posts a throwaway comment as well as a useless vote.
Then takes a hard stance on duel voting but gives a very jokey not serious reason.

Overall very anti town and engaged while still trying.

[mcmcsalot]

Okay so as usual I don't find MiX scummy at all for his brash and un-thought out accept all duels plan. I think it was either not very thought out or purposefully not very thought out, either way not alignment indicative.

I don't think a rule of accepting duels or not accepting duels is good at all. I strongly think players should decide on their own based on the likelihood of the players up for the duel containing scum. Also we should way approving duels gives us a power which tips the scales towards dueling. With day one reads being weak I think that is also a factor that points towards accepting the duel but if I am strongly town reading both players going into the duel i'm still not accepting it. I think that should be how we treat duels, Its like a forced read check and wagon lock so we dont get to end of day having and qucklynching.

Town read on Joth for the math, people overestimate scum doing that for towncred.

That's basically a summation of the so-called "anti-duel" position

What is Joth's math or my post?

I am neither pro or anti duel. Joth math points out that there is a 40% chance duels include scum, I think that is relatively counterbalanced by the fact that dueling provides a 76%(10/13) or 84%(11/13) of giving town a one shot pr. My opinion is that these two stats mean dueling is a bit coinflippy if we don't apply reads. If we actively chose to vote based on our reads duels can provide a solid benefit.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Okay so as usual I don't find MiX scummy at all for his brash and un-thought out accept all duels plan. I think it was either not very thought out or purposefully not very thought out, either way not alignment indicative.

I don't think a rule of accepting duels or not accepting duels is good at all. I strongly think players should decide on their own based on the likelihood of the players up for the duel containing scum. Also we should way approving duels gives us a power which tips the scales towards dueling. With day one reads being weak I think that is also a factor that points towards accepting the duel but if I am strongly town reading both players going into the duel i'm still not accepting it. I think that should be how we treat duels, Its like a forced read check and wagon lock so we dont get to end of day having and qucklynching.

Town read on Joth for the math, people overestimate scum doing that for towncred.

That's basically a summation of the so-called "anti-duel" position

What is Joth's math or my post?

I am neither pro or anti duel. Joth math points out that there is a 40% chance duels include scum, I think that is relatively counterbalanced by the fact that dueling provides a 76%(10/13) or 84%(11/13) of giving town a one shot pr. My opinion is that these two stats mean dueling is a bit coinflippy if we don't apply reads. If we actively chose to vote based on our reads duels can provide a solid benefit.

My point is that no one is saying we should never duel and the position that you're describing is the same one that me and joth are arguing for

[EFHW]

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

[Awaclus]

Assuming that silverspawn has picked somewhat reasonable PRs, it should be sometimes a good idea to duel and sometimes a bad idea, depending on who the randomly picked players turn out to be. If it was always correct to duel, why on earth would it be optional?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

I think it's safe to assume scum will just vote yes on duels they're not in and no ok duels they are in

[MiX]

Assuming that silverspawn has picked somewhat reasonable PRs, it should be sometimes a good idea to duel and sometimes a bad idea, depending on who the randomly picked players turn out to be. If it was always correct to duel, why on earth would it be optional?

Because whoever's being dueled is public before votes, which makes how good the duel is vary.

mcmc is town or just buddying me but probably just town. Saying everything I'm thinking, 'nuff said.

[mcmcsalot]

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

I think it's safe to assume scum will just vote yes on duels they're not in and no ok duels they are in

I disagree and strongly discourage public speculation of how scum will vote prior to votes being made.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Fair enough

[mcmcsalot]

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.

[EFHW]

We recently had a gladiators game where that happened.  Also it's plurality lynch, which  often reduces incentive to vote or post and makes it less likely a day will end early.

[EFHW]

Assuming that silverspawn has picked somewhat reasonable PRs, it should be sometimes a good idea to duel and sometimes a bad idea, depending on who the randomly picked players turn out to be. If it was always correct to duel, why on earth would it be optional?

Because scum and town have different agendas, which means the outcome of the vote contains information about the two duelers. This is another counter argument to my always vote no plan, since my doing that would dilute the information that we could infer from the result.

[EFHW]

silver, will we learn the for and against  breakdown of the votes, or just the result?

[mcmcsalot]

silver, will we learn the for and against  breakdown of the votes, or just the result?

I think the answer is obviously just the result because it says we vote privately in our qt. I think you know that and asking is scummy.

[Robz888]

Wait we have a MIX and an OIX in this game? That's sort of odd.

[Robz888]

Also for the newbie there are two pairs of brothers in this game. Me and mcmc are brothers, and Jotheonah and Glooble are brothers (twins, even!).

[jotheonah]

OTOH, the nice thing about the duel is it limits us to two possible wagons that scum had no role in choosing which is attractive.

They do have a role in choosing them, though, since they're a three person voting block when we're voting on the duel itself

That's true. Which I suppose is a good argument for an "always duel" rule although it would be pretty unenforceable even if we did.

I don't think I'm following your line of thought there

If town all agrees to vote for the duel, then scum can't derail it if one of them is in it. If town all does their own thing, scum can probably vote down a duel that includes them.

[EFHW]

silver, will we learn the for and against  breakdown of the votes, or just the result?

I think the answer is obviously just the result because it says we vote privately in our qt. I think you know that and asking is scummy.

It doesn't seem that obvious to me.

[Swowl]

Hey everyone -

vote: new guy
Welcome to the forum

vote: Mcmc
Good to see you again man

vote: robz
Obv!skum

[silverspawn]

silver, will we learn the for and against  breakdown of the votes, or just the result?

You will only learn whether or not the duel happens.

[Swowl]

Day 1 Duel: It is 100%, almost unarguably, wrong to go for the duel on Day 1.
I am not saying the duel concept is bad. For every negative there is a potential positive. Examples:
a) Items - Town could get a PR, or skum could get the fake claim.

b) % chance vs control vs plurality - it would seem the % chance of having a skum selected day 1 is fairly similar to randomly choosing a player to lynch day 1. The difference is that it does take some control away from skum in the duel setting. Without the duel we need 8 to lynch, with the duel it is just majority. However, on day one we assume we will lynch town... that does not change just because there is a duel. So it gives skum less control over keeping one of their own alive, but only if one of their own is selected... if it is TownvTown... it is all bad news.


---This is the important one---
c) Information - When we isolate the field to 2 players the info we have to look back on is EXTREMELY LIMITED. If we roll SkumVTown and go to lynch it could prove useful. However, that cannot be an expectation. If the mod selects player A and player B to duel and we have to choose between them... we can still just say no and have the chance at lynching player A or Player B. The argument against would be to put skum in a tough spot with plurality and take the duel to force a lynch... but it is day one... so the only people that actually know anything are skum.

[Swowl]

silver, will we learn the for and against  breakdown of the votes, or just the result?

You will only learn whether or not the duel happens.

creating a pool of claims (as in "I voted yes" vs "I voted no" to the duel) could be useful down the road to isolate skum pools. They will obviously say what is beneficial to them at the time, but in later days it could come into play.

[Swowl]

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.

The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.

1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.

2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

[Swowl]

silver, will we learn the for and against  breakdown of the votes, or just the result?

I think the answer is obviously just the result because it says we vote privately in our qt. I think you know that and asking is scummy.

I agree with MCMC.
So MCMC is probably skum and EFHW is either way.

[EFHW]

silver, will we learn the for and against  breakdown of the votes, or just the result?

I think the answer is obviously just the result because it says we vote privately in our qt. I think you know that and asking is scummy.

I agree with MCMC.
So MCMC is probably skum and EFHW is either way.

Not following you here

[Joseph2302]

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Agreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs

[Swowl]

silver, will we learn the for and against  breakdown of the votes, or just the result?

I think the answer is obviously just the result because it says we vote privately in our qt. I think you know that and asking is scummy.

I agree with MCMC.
So MCMC is probably skum and EFHW is either way.

Not following you here

I never agree with MCMC so they are prob!skum. You, and everyone else, I could go either way one.

[Swowl]

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Robz hates day 1s
Robz rolls skum
Robz plays meta.

This is a bad idea.

[Swowl]

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Agreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs

Also skummy.

Duel Day 1 takes away Day 1 info. Horrible idea.

[Joseph2302]

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Robz hates day 1s
Robz rolls skum
Robz plays meta.

This is a bad idea.

If we dual D1 then we get to see how it works and how people play during the duel
If we don't duel D1, then we'll just have a boring D1 with a random crapshoot at the end like most D1s

PPE: 1

[Joseph2302]

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Agreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs

Also skummy.

Duel Day 1 takes away Day 1 info. Horrible idea.

What D1 info? Every game I play we just pick random wagons, and near the deadline we just panic and kill the easiest person to get a lynch for

Or in plurality lunches like this, we just have  a number of random wagons, just without the random panic at the end

[Awaclus]

What D1 info? Every game I play we just pick random wagons, and near the deadline we just panic and kill the easiest person to get a lynch for

The D1 info that results in D2 not being "just pick random wagons, and near the deadline we just panic and kill the easiest person to get a lynch for".

[EFHW]

What D1 info? Every game I play we just pick random wagons, and near the deadline we just panic and kill the easiest person to get a lynch for

The D1 info that results in D2 not being "just pick random wagons, and near the deadline we just panic and kill the easiest person to get a lynch for".

This

[MiX]

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Stop. Playing. Your. Meta. Every. Single. Game.

Vote: Swan, pubby's so scum here I'm probably never moving this vote untill duel starts.

[MiX]

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.

The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.

1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.

2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Actually I don't understand anything about this post. I fail to see how the non town vs town scenarios also drag on more than the average game.

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 1.2

Robz888 (2): jotheonah, pubby
jotheonah (1): Robz888
pubby (2): MiX, mcmcscalot
MiX (3): Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302

Not Voting (6): DatSwan, e, Glooble, Debatepro, Uncleeurope, EFHW

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 1 ends at Sep 1, 06:30 forum time. That is in 24h 14m.

[Joseph2302]

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.

The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.

1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.

2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Actually I don't understand anything about this post. I fail to see how the non town vs town scenarios also drag on more than the average game.

Me neither
And scum vs scum will just masquerade out like town vs town I guess?

[Glooble]

vote: DatSwan

Hard to articulate exactly why  but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.

[mcmcsalot]

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.

The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.

1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.

2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

So I disagree slightly with this. We find scum not scumhunting just as often as we find them pushing bad cases on town. TvT is going to force scum to take a stance instead of hiding behind day 1 is tough I don't have many reads i'll sheep x's case on y ect. TvS makes scum choose to bus or protect, instead of sitting around hoping the wagon on their partner just goes away. SvS what do you mean by absolve a player from lynch pool? I don't think we should make any assumptions about the player that survives a duel.

I think the main difference between day 1 duel and later duels is just we have way worse reads to make an informed vote.

[jotheonah]

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Agreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs

We need to run some pure vanilla games so this town stops being so dependent on PRs.

[mcmcsalot]

vote: DatSwan

Hard to articulate exactly why  but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.

Please try, do you disagree with his analysis? Do you think the analysis is pushing us in a direction? Do you think the analysis is redundant? Do you think town!swan is unlikely to make analysis like that? Do you think scum!swan benefits from that analysis post?

[jotheonah]

vote: DatSwan

Hard to articulate exactly why  but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.

I’m terrible at reading Swan, but I am strongly townreading him for his posts here.

[mcmcsalot]

Vote Count 1.2

Robz888 (2): jotheonah, pubby
jotheonah (1): Robz888
pubby (1): MiX
MiX (3): Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302

Not Voting (7): DatSwan, e, mcmcsalot, Glooble, Debatepro, 0Ix, EFHW

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 1 ends at Sep 1, 06:30 forum time. That is in 24h 14m.

I am voting Pubby

[mcmcsalot]

Vote: Pubby

So is it a bad idea to vote yes on the duel d1?

I saw robz on TV a few weeks ago. At least, I think it was him.

vote: robz

I'm only going to vote yes on the duel today if it involves one of the fools wanting to duel so badly.

Three posts spaced very evenly throughout the day where decent conversations have been had inbetween and yet he doesn't participate in the conversation at all.
Poses a question instead of giving his own opinion (could be trying to start conversations but as a hard stance had already been taken by someone the pro town approach is to disect that stance not ask the group)
Then really doesn't take his question anywhere and posts a throwaway comment as well as a useless vote.
Then takes a hard stance on duel voting but gives a very jokey not serious reason.

Overall very anti town and engaged while still trying.

And I would like his response to this.

[jotheonah]

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.

Correct math:

chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%

That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.

[jotheonah]

In another topic, I’m locked in a pitched battle between my old “always suspect Robz day 1” meta and my new “always suspect MiX day 1” meta.

[Awaclus]

joth, this is the plurality thing everyone's talking about:

...  [1] For the rest of the day, only votes for the two dueling players are valid. All other votes (including a no-lynch vote) will have no effect. At the end of the day, the player with more votes is lynched (if it is a tie, a virtual coin is flipped). Either one may still be lynched earlier via majority vote.

[MiX]

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Agreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs

We need to run some pure vanilla games so this town stops being so dependent on PRs.

This is a (semi) pure vanilla game, with the option of not being bored in some days.

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.

Correct math:

chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%

That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.

I'm incredibly surprised that adding town makes those odds better for town. Are you sure this is true?

In another topic, I’m locked in a pitched battle between my old “always suspect Robz day 1” meta and my new “always suspect MiX day 1” meta.

The easy answer is always assume we're in a team. At least that's what I'm doing.

joth, this is the plurality thing everyone's talking about:

...  [1] For the rest of the day, only votes for the two dueling players are valid. All other votes (including a no-lynch vote) will have no effect. At the end of the day, the player with more votes is lynched (if it is a tie, a virtual coin is flipped). Either one may still be lynched earlier via majority vote.

Yes.

[MiX]

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

Also this is a townslip: he removed himself from the player list and thus removed 1 town.

But I think the odds he fakes this are above 1% so maybe it's just a very towny thing to do instead of a slip.

[jotheonah]

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Agreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs

We need to run some pure vanilla games so this town stops being so dependent on PRs.

This is a (semi) pure vanilla game, with the option of not being bored in some days.

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.

Correct math:

chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%

That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.

I'm incredibly surprised that adding town makes those odds better for town. Are you sure this is true?

Well no. I’m an English major. Someone mathy should check my math. It’s fairly straightforward conditional probability. Oh shoot, no I did it wrong again.

Town v town: 60.4%
Town v scum: 36.4%
Scum v scum: 3.2%

[Awaclus]

Also this is a townslip: he removed himself from the player list and thus removed 1 town

What?

[jotheonah]

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

Also this is a townslip: he removed himself from the player list and thus removed 1 town.

But I think the odds he fakes this are above 1% so maybe it's just a very towny thing to do instead of a slip.

It’s simpler than that. I just skipped the JK when I was looking at the setup post because it didn’t have a number next to it.

[jotheonah]

I’m pretty sure that latest math is right.
11/14 x 10/13 to get the town v town probability, 3/14 x 2/13 to get the scum probability, then just subtracted those from 100 to get town v scum.

[mcmcsalot]

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

Also this is a townslip: he removed himself from the player list and thus removed 1 town.

But I think the odds he fakes this are above 1% so maybe it's just a very towny thing to do instead of a slip.

It’s simpler than that. I just skipped the JK when I was looking at the setup post because it didn’t have a number next to it.

Yea I did that in a few of my attempts at odds calculations, then I gave up. The fact that MiX things this is a townslip is hilarious. MiX how long do you think about your posts before posting them?

[Glooble]

vote: DatSwan

Hard to articulate exactly why  but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.

Please try, do you disagree with his analysis? Do you think the analysis is pushing us in a direction? Do you think the analysis is redundant? Do you think town!swan is unlikely to make analysis like that? Do you think scum!swan benefits from that analysis post?

Day 1 Duel: It is 100%, almost unarguably, wrong to go for the duel on Day 1.
I am not saying the duel concept is bad. For every negative there is a potential positive. Examples:
a) Items - Town could get a PR, or skum could get the fake claim.

b) % chance vs control vs plurality - it would seem the % chance of having a skum selected day 1 is fairly similar to randomly choosing a player to lynch day 1. The difference is that it does take some control away from skum in the duel setting. Without the duel we need 8 to lynch, with the duel it is just majority. However, on day one we assume we will lynch town... that does not change just because there is a duel. So it gives skum less control over keeping one of their own alive, but only if one of their own is selected... if it is TownvTown... it is all bad news.


---This is the important one---
c) Information - When we isolate the field to 2 players the info we have to look back on is EXTREMELY LIMITED. If we roll SkumVTown and go to lynch it could prove useful. However, that cannot be an expectation. If the mod selects player A and player B to duel and we have to choose between them... we can still just say no and have the chance at lynching player A or Player B. The argument against would be to put skum in a tough spot with plurality and take the duel to force a lynch... but it is day one... so the only people that actually know anything are skum.

This post is sort of null on the balance-  he starts with "100%, inarguably wrong" but then follows it up with a post that sort of presents the arguments for and against, so its hardly "unarguable". But that kind of bold, black and white statement feels to me like scum!swan trying to get town points by taking a strong stance. Then bullet point b is just a lot of talking without saying much of anything, which is scummy. I will give Swan town points for point C though, it's a good point and not something I would necessarily bring up as scum.

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.

The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.

1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.

2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

This was the post that felt really scummy to me. I think it's just the way he's setting up expectations for exactly how he thinks scum will play it. Maybe so he can act differently and then use his theory for how scum would play to defend his play/ his teammates' play as townie? I don't know, it's not a strong case, he just feels off to me.

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 1.2

Robz888 (2): jotheonah, pubby
jotheonah (1): Robz888
pubby (1): MiX
MiX (3): Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302

Not Voting (7): DatSwan, e, mcmcsalot, Glooble, Debatepro, 0Ix, EFHW

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 1 ends at Sep 1, 06:30 forum time. That is in 24h 14m.

I am voting Pubby

Corrected

[MiX]

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

Also this is a townslip: he removed himself from the player list and thus removed 1 town.

But I think the odds he fakes this are above 1% so maybe it's just a very towny thing to do instead of a slip.

It’s simpler than that. I just skipped the JK when I was looking at the setup post because it didn’t have a number next to it.

Yea I did that in a few of my attempts at odds calculations, then I gave up. The fact that MiX things this is a townslip is hilarious. MiX how long do you think about your posts before posting them?

Scum knows there's a JK. Meh.

I think about 1 minute for posts, maybe more if I'm making a case or I've been thinking about something for a while (and when writing the post I'll think more to see if I explained myself clearly or if I missed something).


Interesting post by Glooble.

[mcmcsalot]

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Agreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs

We need to run some pure vanilla games so this town stops being so dependent on PRs.

This is a (semi) pure vanilla game, with the option of not being bored in some days.

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.

Correct math:

chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%

That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.

I'm incredibly surprised that adding town makes those odds better for town. Are you sure this is true?

Well no. I’m an English major. Someone mathy should check my math. It’s fairly straightforward conditional probability. Oh shoot, no I did it wrong again.

Town v town: 60.4%
Town v scum: 36.4%
Scum v scum: 3.2%

I'm just a business major and my wife is a doctor, between the two of us and these percentages check out. We even did town v scum the hard way and it matches.

Show your work!

T1 0.7857142857142857
M1 0.2142857142857143

Conditions 1 Town roll 1
C1T2 0.7692307692307692
C1M2 0.2307692307692308

Condition 2 Mafia roll 1
C2T2 0.8461538461538462
C2M2 0.1538461538461538

Town V Town
(T1*C1T2) = 0.6043956043956044

Town V Mafia
((T1*C1M2)+(M1*C2T2)) = 0.1813186813186813+0.1813186813186813= 0.3626373626373626

Mafia V Mafia
(M1*C2M2) = 0.032967032967033

[jotheonah]

Third time’s the charm I guess.

I’m gonna be honest, I don’t hate the pubby case.

vote: pubby

[MiX]

I hope everyone has a chance to talk in these 2 IRL days before the duel and get some solid town and scum reads. I'm mostly talking to Debatepro, he hasn't talked yet and would be pretty cool if he said, well, something.

I would also like everyone's generic stances on dueling, whether for or against, they'll be useful.

[mcmcsalot]

I hope everyone has a chance to talk in these 2 IRL days before the duel and get some solid town and scum reads. I'm mostly talking to Debatepro, he hasn't talked yet and would be pretty cool if he said, well, something.

I would also like everyone's generic stances on dueling, whether for or against, they'll be useful.

Ugh you are so bad at this. Yes, useful for scum to know who is an isn't planning on voting for the duel. How about people vote for the duel if they want the duel and don't if they don't end of story. Once we see what has happened (duel or no duel) we can go from there...

[2.71828.....]

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Stop. Playing. Your. Meta. Every. Single. Game.

Vote: Swan, pubby's so scum here I'm probably never moving this vote untill duel starts.

You know,there comes a point when a player is just playing the game, then gets accused of playing up their meta. I.e. how they always play.

I should just try to act like someone else every game I play in, that way I never have a meta.

[2.71828.....]

Let's try unexplained votes.

Vote: Glooble

I always try to build these airtight cases and am usually wrong. Let's see how this works without a case

[MiX]

I hope everyone has a chance to talk in these 2 IRL days before the duel and get some solid town and scum reads. I'm mostly talking to Debatepro, he hasn't talked yet and would be pretty cool if he said, well, something.

I would also like everyone's generic stances on dueling, whether for or against, they'll be useful.

Ugh you are so bad at this. Yes, useful for scum to know who is an isn't planning on voting for the duel. How about people vote for the duel if they want the duel and don't if they don't end of story. Once we see what has happened (duel or no duel) we can go from there...

But then scum can change their opinion after voting.

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Stop. Playing. Your. Meta. Every. Single. Game.

Vote: Swan, pubby's so scum here I'm probably never moving this vote untill duel starts.

You know,there comes a point when a player is just playing the game, then gets accused of playing up their meta. I.e. how they always play.

I should just try to act like someone else every game I play in, that way I never have a meta.

Yeah I then realized that...but then I felt like scumreading that part for a different reason so I didn't feel like pointing it out.

[mcmcsalot]

I hope everyone has a chance to talk in these 2 IRL days before the duel and get some solid town and scum reads. I'm mostly talking to Debatepro, he hasn't talked yet and would be pretty cool if he said, well, something.

I would also like everyone's generic stances on dueling, whether for or against, they'll be useful.

Ugh you are so bad at this. Yes, useful for scum to know who is an isn't planning on voting for the duel. How about people vote for the duel if they want the duel and don't if they don't end of story. Once we see what has happened (duel or no duel) we can go from there...

But then scum can change their opinion after voting.

And because you have eyes and a brain you can see that inconsistency thus finding scum. Could we let scum make mistakes on their own or are you so fearful they might trick you that we should make all information public...

[2.71828.....]

I hope everyone has a chance to talk in these 2 IRL days before the duel and get some solid town and scum reads. I'm mostly talking to Debatepro, he hasn't talked yet and would be pretty cool if he said, well, something.

I would also like everyone's generic stances on dueling, whether for or against, they'll be useful.

Ugh you are so bad at this. Yes, useful for scum to know who is an isn't planning on voting for the duel. How about people vote for the duel if they want the duel and don't if they don't end of story. Once we see what has happened (duel or no duel) we can go from there...

But then scum can change their opinion after voting.

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Stop. Playing. Your. Meta. Every. Single. Game.

Vote: Swan, pubby's so scum here I'm probably never moving this vote untill duel starts.

You know,there comes a point when a player is just playing the game, then gets accused of playing up their meta. I.e. how they always play.

I should just try to act like someone else every game I play in, that way I never have a meta.

Yeah I then realized that...but then I felt like scumreading that part for a different reason so I didn't feel like pointing it out.

So you admit to overlooking townier parts of a person's play to emphasize a scummy area to try to push a lynch through?  Tunneling 101.

And town read on MiX.  This is classic town!MiX here.

[Robz888]

I agree with Joseph the most, so that’s something.

[Robz888]

I honestly don’t care about the percentages, because we just obviously should duel no matter what.

[Swowl]

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Stop. Playing. Your. Meta. Every. Single. Game.

Vote: Swan, pubby's so scum here I'm probably never moving this vote untill duel starts.

I don’t know what this is referring to.

[MiX]

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Stop. Playing. Your. Meta. Every. Single. Game.

Vote: Swan, pubby's so scum here I'm probably never moving this vote untill duel starts.

I don’t know what this is referring to.

Nothing. But then I also scumread the quoted part for another reason, so...

[Joseph2302]

I honestly don’t care about the percentages, because we just obviously should duel no matter what.

Exactly. Because even with the percentages, it doesn't take into account the benefit of getting a PR.
So if you were doing the stats properly, it should be expected values rather than probabilities, to work out the expected value/cost of duelling

But please don't try and do that people

[pubby]

There's only 4 PRs available from duels. If you think the game is going 5+ days, it's not critical to get a duel PR n1. They get better later in the game anyway.

[MiX]

There's only 4 PRs available from duels. If you think the game is going 5+ days, it's not critical to get a duel PR n1. They get better later in the game anyway.

Oh but it is, because later days could have really bad duel targets, so we should try to maximize how many good duels we can get as early as possible.

What do you think of your wagon?

[pubby]

The first duel is going to have really bad targets too so I don't see what you mean. 

IMO the case (or lack thereof) against me is great fun while everyone waits for the duel to start.

[Robz888]

I often think good (early) PR luck is town’s best chance to win, so that too makes me pro duel.

[mcmcsalot]

The first duel is going to have really bad targets too so I don't see what you mean. 

IMO the case (or lack thereof) against me is great fun while everyone waits for the duel to start.

ugh double vote pubby...

Are you seriously just going to not play until the duel starts because if so you are tremendously anti-town

[Awaclus]

I often think good (early) PR luck is town’s best chance to win, so that too makes me pro duel.

Town's best chance to win is to not screw up.

[mcmcsalot]

I often think good (early) PR luck is town’s best chance to win, so that too makes me pro duel.

more ugh, maybe I am just in a grouchy mood but come on. Early luck is towns best chance to win...you've just given up trying to guess who mafia is until later when cases have been made for you to sheep and there are flips to use systematic wagon analysis.

[Swowl]

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.

Correct math:

chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%

That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.

Is this math accurate? I will be the first to concede my math skills vs others on this forum, but when I run it I get more like...
TvT = 64%
TvS = 32%
SvS = 4%

[Swowl]

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.

Correct math:

chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%

That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.

Is this math accurate? I will be the first to concede my math skills vs others on this forum, but when I run it I get more like...
TvT = 64%
TvS = 32%
SvS = 4%

actually I just read MCMCs post and agree with that even over my own

[jotheonah]

It’s wigging me out how townie Awaclus is being.

[Swowl]

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.

The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.

1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.

2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

Actually I don't understand anything about this post. I fail to see how the non town vs town scenarios also drag on more than the average game.

Me neither
And scum vs scum will just masquerade out like town vs town I guess?

I mean in that day yes. My point was that based on % chance, we will will assume (if a skum were to flip in a duel) on later days that it was town v skum... which could be troublesome.

[Swowl]

How about this:

Create a match up of two players in which today, on Day 1... in like 12 hours... you believe that:
a) At least one is skum
b) You can get a lynch through on that player

If you are a good enough player to think that you actually have the ability to isolate out an individual player within the first 48 hours of the game as skum... to the extent that you want to help provide the lack of ability to change your mind later in the day... they bully to you I guess. I just don't think that is a realistic mindset for someone to have.

The PRs were added into the game mechanics to balance the fact that during the early parts of the game it works against town to say yes to a duel.
The PRs were given the opportunity to be given to skum as fake claims to help balance the game later on when town may be able to use the duels to their advantage, so that they are not GTD a potential advantage on the duel and on getting the PR.

I have no idea when it will switch in this game as it dependent upon flips and you know... playing the game and all. But today, on Day 1, taking a duel is a bad idea.

Just like think about how many times you have thought during Day 1 Twilight "oh yeah, nice that was the lynch I wanted... I am pretty sure we found skum" vs "oh yeah, nice that was the lynch I wanted... if they are not skum it will give a lot of information".

The duel eliminates the potential generation of information regarding any players that are not in the duel. And if both of those players are town... that is not good.

[Glooble]

Well that was fun while it lasted. I now think DatSwan is town.

vote: pubby I guess?

[EFHW]

Let's try unexplained votes.

Vote: Glooble

I always try to build these airtight cases and am usually wrong. Let's see how this works without a case

So you just picked him at random? Are you expecting people to join?

[EFHW]

I'm having a hard time taking the pro-Day 1-duel proponents seriously. These seem to be joseph and Robz, with MiX flitting in and out.

vote: Robz

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 1.3

Glooble (1): e
Robz888 (3): pubby, DatSwan, EFHW
jotheonah (1): Robz888
MiX (3): Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302
pubby (4): MiX, mcmcsalot, jotheonah, Glooble

Not Voting (2): Debatepro, Uncleeurope

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 1, 06:30 forum time. That is in 2h 18m. And the same thing happens in the other way around -- the player goes into the other dimension, which I call the void, and then can then use his weapons.

And the weapons are the two weapons that you get in the void. The weapon that was called the sword, is called the hammer and it is the same weapon, but for each dimension, there is a hammer and a sword. The hammer and the sword are two weapons for each dimension, because the void is a dimension which is two different weapons from other weapons.

[silverspawn]

Thread locked!

[silverspawn]

[static] ...

of a small car. A crew member was cowering inside, frantically typing on a smartphone.

"Help me, r/craftbees," he said, either to his phone or to himself. "Get the fear away! Send a private message to the mod!"

"Sir?" I asked. "What are you talking about?"

"It must be between 1 and 99 words! Otherwise Fetophobia will take you! The fingernails will keep growing! AND THEN YOU ARE MADE OUT OF PIPES! Only r/craftbees can save us now!"

"Sir are you-"

"I WILL CARRY OUT THIS DUEL TO THE END. IT IS THEM OR I."

"Them?"

"The fear! Clapophobia! Dysentery! Geniophobia! Arachnophobia! Frostophobia! Oh r/craftbees, I pray to thee, take the fear away."

"Okay," I said, "I think you"

... [static]

[silverspawn]

The potential duel is between A Drowned Kernel and 2.71828....... You have 24 hours to vote in your QTs on whether or not the duel takes place. The vote should be bolded and phrased unambiguously (for example, oppose duel).

[silverspawn]

[static] ...

are clearly losing it. Get out of there."

Ignoring his rambling, I grabbed him by the arm and pulled him to the door.

"Mental Health is a serious issue, you know? But we know as a community that we know too much, we know too much about a lot of stuff that we don't know, we don't know all the facts, but we can say these things on the ground. And I am going out there and trying to bring in the facts. And now I'm getting you to the Psych Ward."

"Only r/craftbees knows the way to the Psych ward."

"Shut up. I'm a journalist."

... [static]

[silverspawn]

No duel takes place.

Thread unlocked!

[Joseph2302]

Interesting, no duel. So we can have a RVs D1 instead. Great.........

[MiX]

Okay...

Time for plan: everyone claims what they voted in this great order based on everyone's scumreads (but mostly mine):

pubby
Robz
EFHW
Swan
MiX
Joseph
Awaclus
OIx
Glooble
mcmcsalot
joth

Debatepro should say what his vote immediately when he gets here, and ADK/E can say it whenever I don't think it matters they probably both denied it, I don't want them to delay the claim train. I don't know pubby's timezone but someone wake him up.

This is the plan I was talking about before. It's probably a waste of time but I really liked this duel and I think this will provide an interesting split of players.

Scum doesn't have daychat right? That would blow everything up.

[Debatepro]

Hi. Not totally caught up, but MiX's ideas are almost the exact opposite of mine. I'll have more time to elaborate later.

MiX's ideas
$5 Action
You may trash a Treasure from your hand. Gain a Treasure to your hand costing up to $3 less than it.

This is the funniest mafia post i've ever read! It should be preserved for future generations.

@All - Apologies WCD and I bought another house, so consequently we have to sell our current home and downsize to half the square footage. I'll be better going forward.

Odds of me doing anything MiX says is near zero.

[MiX]

Hi. Not totally caught up, but MiX's ideas are almost the exact opposite of mine. I'll have more time to elaborate later.

MiX's ideas
$5 Action
You may trash a Treasure from your hand. Gain a Treasure to your hand costing up to $3 less than it.

This is the funniest mafia post i've ever read! It should be preserved for future generations.

@All - Apologies WCD and I bought another house, so consequently we have to sell our current home and downsize to half the square footage. I'll be better going forward.

Odds of me doing anything MiX says is near zero.

Yooo what happened to us being buddies? What's all this friendly hostility from? I wanted someone to buddy when I noticed faust wasn't in the game, you're great for that right?

Agreed that's a great post, I didn't know I could become a dominion card, especially in mafia.

What did you vote?

[pubby]

I voted no duel. 

[pubby]

BTW I realized something. Whoever is getting wagoned at the time of the duel has incentive to vote for the duel in order to save themselves for a day. This incentive could be pretty strong - I mean I only had 4 votes on me but I sure thought about it.

[MiX]

BTW I realized something. Whoever is getting wagoned at the time of the duel has incentive to vote for the duel in order to save themselves for a day. This incentive could be pretty strong - I mean I only had 4 votes on me but I sure thought about it.

Oh you're town, dammit.

Unvote

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'm very much in favor of everyone revealing how they voted. I would especially like to know e's vote given that he was in the "always duel" camp

[2.71828.....]

I'm very much in favor of everyone revealing how they voted. I would especially like to know e's vote given that he was in the "always duel" camp

I voted yes. I was looking forward to dueling, and lynching, you.

We would have had so much fun. Probably want the smartest vote and town saved me from myself, but I voted yes to the duel

[2.71828.....]

I'm very much in favor of everyone revealing how they voted. I would especially like to know e's vote given that he was in the "always duel" camp

I voted yes. I was looking forward to dueling, and lynching, you.

We would have had so much fun. Probably want the smartest vote and town saved me from myself, but I voted yes to the duel

Probably not*

Autocorrect fail

[MiX]

I'm very much in favor of everyone revealing how they voted. I would especially like to know e's vote given that he was in the "always duel" camp

So you voted no? Takes notes

Do you think Robz will be here soon? Also what do you think of my order?

PPE: Fascinating. Takes more notes Truly a great duel.

[mcmcsalot]

So I agree with MiX

We should 100% reveal our votes. It gives town way more information to force mafia to reveal votes then it gives mafia info about our reads. I don’t think an order matters at all.

I voted no on the duel, not a grouping I had a particularly strong scum read on at all. Very very surprised 2.7 voted yes and I think it’s scummy.

Ppe oh he was in the always duel camp ugh

[Glooble]

If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.

[MiX]

But I spent a whole minute making it 

I still stand by it. For a bit.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'm very much in favor of everyone revealing how they voted. I would especially like to know e's vote given that he was in the "always duel" camp

So you voted no? Takes notes

Do you think Robz will be here soon? Also what do you think of my order?

PPE: Fascinating. Takes more notes Truly a great duel.

I voted no. Your order is eh.

Also vote: e

[Awaclus]

Claiming votes is stupid and we shouldn't do it. Scum can just fakeclaim they voted for the outcome that went through so we don't learn anything useful from it, but scum does.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Claiming votes is stupid and we shouldn't do it. Scum can just fakeclaim they voted for the outcome that went through so we don't learn anything useful from it, but scum does.

It's possible that we can catch scum in a lie if they decide to do so, and they're not going to learn anything they couldn't learn from looking at people's voting patterns

[EFHW]

I voted no, not a big surprise.

[EFHW]

Why was I so high on your list, MiX?

[EFHW]

Claiming votes is stupid and we shouldn't do it. Scum can just fakeclaim they voted for the outcome that went through so we don't learn anything useful from it, but scum does.

If they fakeclaim,  the numbers might not add up and POE becomes a thing. Claiming discourages them from trying scummy stuff.

[EFHW]

I'm very much in favor of everyone revealing how they voted. I would especially like to know e's vote given that he was in the "always duel" camp

I voted yes. I was looking forward to dueling, and lynching, you.

We would have had so much fun. Probably want the smartest vote and town saved me from myself, but I voted yes to the duel

I'm not sure why mcmc thinks it's scummy to vote yes for a duel you are in, but it is surprising.  ADK is always very towny, regardless of alignment.  Did you think you could win?

[EFHW]

Also, I just remembered you didn't answer these questions.

Let's try unexplained votes.

Vote: Glooble

I always try to build these airtight cases and am usually wrong. Let's see how this works without a case

So you just picked him at random? Are you expecting people to join?

[A Drowned Kernel]

@EFHW to me voting for a duel you are in looks to me like someone trying very hard to look unconcerned and towny

[MiX]

Why was I so high on your list, MiX?

Because the answer was obvious. Same for robz.

I also voted no, which essencially meant this wouldn't mean much, the plan involved me voting yes because obviously everyone would say no and having a contested duel means a more meaningful split...but ADK was really towny and I didn't feel like lynching E by default.

Mobile so the above statement might not make sense, sorry in advance.

[MiX]

Regardless

Vote: E

[Glooble]

MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default

Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead

[MiX]

MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default

Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead

Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.

Meh. That's such a non-post.

[A Drowned Kernel]

MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default

Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead

The fact that a) a duel involving him failed and b) he claims to have voted yes on his own duel is new information

[A Drowned Kernel]

MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default

Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead

Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.

Meh. That's such a non-post.

I'm (pleasantly) surprised people have this much faith in my towniness

[Glooble]

MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default

Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead

Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.

Meh. That's such a non-post.

I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.

[MiX]

MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default

Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead

Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.

Meh. That's such a non-post.

I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.

Oh. Next time say "lol MiX logic", that would make me laugh 

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 1.4 Ultra Rare 8.71% / Very Rare / The Time Warp / Win an RvR game without engaging a nearby enemy. 3.2% / Ultra Rare 9.60% / Very Rare / Doom / Destroy all of the enemy units on the field. 2.9% / Ultra Rare 7.65% / Very Rare / Nimbus / Use only any one of four Nimbus weapons (Rifle, Machinegun, Flamer, Grenade). 2.0%

Glooble (1): e
Robz888 (3): pubby, DatSwan, EFHW
jotheonah (1): Robz888
e (2): A Drowned Kernel, MiX
MiX (2): Awaclus, Joseph2302
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, jotheonah, Glooble

Not Voting (2): Debatepro, Uncleeurope

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 8, 06:30 forum time.

[Awaclus]

Claiming votes is stupid and we shouldn't do it. Scum can just fakeclaim they voted for the outcome that went through so we don't learn anything useful from it, but scum does.

If they fakeclaim,  the numbers might not add up and POE becomes a thing. Claiming discourages them from trying scummy stuff.

What numbers? We only know that the majority of people voted no. No is a safe fake claim.

[jotheonah]

Claiming votes is stupid and we shouldn't do it. Scum can just fakeclaim they voted for the outcome that went through so we don't learn anything useful from it, but scum does.

If they fakeclaim,  the numbers might not add up and POE becomes a thing. Claiming discourages them from trying scummy stuff.

What numbers? We only know that the majority of people voted no. No is a safe fake claim.

What’s the benefit of not claiming?

[jotheonah]

Check-in:

Claimed yes vote
e

Probable yes vote
Robz888
Joseph2302

Claimed no vote
pubby
mcmcsalot
Glooble
ADK
EFHW
MiX

Hasn't claimed
Awaclus
Debatepro
I0X
joth
DatSwan

So unless all five of us who have yet to claim voted yes, Awaclus is right: this isn't going to tell us anything. And I'm sure you can all figure out how I voted.

[Awaclus]

Claiming votes is stupid and we shouldn't do it. Scum can just fakeclaim they voted for the outcome that went through so we don't learn anything useful from it, but scum does.

If they fakeclaim,  the numbers might not add up and POE becomes a thing. Claiming discourages them from trying scummy stuff.

What numbers? We only know that the majority of people voted no. No is a safe fake claim.

What’s the benefit of not claiming?

Scum doesn't get to know which town players could be convinced to lynch ADK and/or e.

[2.71828.....]

MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default

Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead

Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.

Meh. That's such a non-post.

Hey now, that is totally not true. I don't lose the duel every time. I guess I do have a more abrasive personality than ADK, but still

[2.71828.....]

Also take this into account all you meta people: I lynched myself D1 once because I thought it was the best thing for town.

Was I right? I don't know. But we did win that game

[MiX]

MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default

Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead

Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.

Meh. That's such a non-post.

Hey now, that is totally not true. I don't lose the duel every time. I guess I do have a more abrasive personality than ADK, but still

Sadly I can't look into the future and see what would happen in 6 days, so your guess is as good as mine. I wasn't ready to lynch you if I thought ADK was townier than you, and that's enough for me to say no to the duel. Although I understand what you're saying and it feels wrong to say that ADK wins the duel everytime, because it's like saying he's better than you. I do think he was townier, and I believe he would generally be townier all day, and we would eventually lynch you. But again, I don't know.

Also take this into account all you meta people: I lynched myself D1 once because I thought it was the best thing for town.

Was I right? I don't know. But we did win that game

Oh yeah you're being scumread I forgot.

Unvote

[2.71828.....]

I firmly believe that dueling for PRs is a valid strategy.

For all of you who are sold on ADK being town and assume I lose the duel, you don't trust ADK with a PR?

D1 lynch now gives us no benefit unless we catch scum. D1 duel gives us a PR that we can use.

Also, the information gained from no duel is significantly less because so many people claimed to be in the "never duel D1" camp. Assume more people expressed approval of a D1 duel and it doesn't happen. Then we learn something. Or people expressed no duel and then a duel happens. Again, we learn something.

Here we learned that people didn't want to duel, and there was no duel.

Exciting

[2.71828.....]

Sadly I can't look into the future and see what would happen in 6 days, so your guess is as good as mine. I wasn't ready to lynch you if I thought ADK was townier than you, and that's enough for me to say no to the duel.

I will put you in the "never duel" column

[MiX]

Sadly I can't look into the future and see what would happen in 6 days, so your guess is as good as mine. I wasn't ready to lynch you if I thought ADK was townier than you, and that's enough for me to say no to the duel.

I will put you in the "never duel" column

If you think that duel would pass without me you're wrong. You're right that I chickened out tho. Didn't expect ADK, bah.

For all of you who are sold on ADK being town and assume I lose the duel, you don't trust ADK with a PR?

The PR is randomly assigned. Yeeeeeah.

[2.71828.....]

Everyone acknowledges the risk associated with a duel. I also acknowledge the benefits.

Thinking more, it is scummy for ADK to say no to the duel. Sure, I am town, but I would gladly be lynched D1 if it let to a successful cop result.

ADK played the predictable, safe game that scum is able to do in a vanilla game. Which is what we are playing right now. What are we going to "know" for the duel D2? Probably about the same as we know now except (more than likely) we have 2 dead townies.

[2.71828.....]

Sadly I can't look into the future and see what would happen in 6 days, so your guess is as good as mine. I wasn't ready to lynch you if I thought ADK was townier than you, and that's enough for me to say no to the duel.

I will put you in the "never duel" column

If you think that duel would pass without me you're wrong. You're right that I chickened out tho. Didn't expect ADK, bah.

For all of you who are sold on ADK being town and assume I lose the duel, you don't trust ADK with a PR?

The PR is randomly assigned. Yeeeeeah.

Oh, reading the setup carefully is a thing.

Also destroys my whole thing about ADK in the last post

[2.71828.....]

I was thinking the randomly assigned was the PR from the list of 4. Not the person.

Again, reading for comprehension. It's a thing. Because I did read the setup

[2.71828.....]

But that makes sense. Otherwise scum would just kill off the person who won the duel if they are town for getting the PR.

[EFHW]

Claiming votes is stupid and we shouldn't do it. Scum can just fakeclaim they voted for the outcome that went through so we don't learn anything useful from it, but scum does.

If they fakeclaim,  the numbers might not add up and POE becomes a thing. Claiming discourages them from trying scummy stuff.

What numbers? We only know that the majority of people voted no. No is a safe fake claim.

It wouldn't be an issue in every case, but could become an issue if the numbers for and against were almost equal and the scum wants to lie about their vote.

[EFHW]

@EFHW to me voting for a duel you are in looks to me like someone trying very hard to look unconcerned and towny

Seems like e is trying to say that a town:town duel is worth it because of the pr. I don't agree with that, though. The informational cost is high, and the pr could end up being wasted if a scum player is randomly chosen, and we don't know how good the prs are.

[Awaclus]

It wouldn't be an issue in every case, but could become an issue if the numbers for and against were almost equal and the scum wants to lie about their vote.

It's only an issue if a scummy vote is the majority, which it shouldn't ever be.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I firmly believe that dueling for PRs is a valid strategy.

For all of you who are sold on ADK being town and assume I lose the duel, you don't trust ADK with a PR?

D1 lynch now gives us no benefit unless we catch scum. D1 duel gives us a PR that we can use.

Also, the information gained from no duel is significantly less because so many people claimed to be in the "never duel D1" camp. Assume more people expressed approval of a D1 duel and it doesn't happen. Then we learn something. Or people expressed no duel and then a duel happens. Again, we learn something.

Here we learned that people didn't want to duel, and there was no duel.

Exciting

I believe the "never duel" camp was literally just EFHW

[A Drowned Kernel]

Claiming votes is stupid and we shouldn't do it. Scum can just fakeclaim they voted for the outcome that went through so we don't learn anything useful from it, but scum does.

If they fakeclaim,  the numbers might not add up and POE becomes a thing. Claiming discourages them from trying scummy stuff.

What numbers? We only know that the majority of people voted no. No is a safe fake claim.

What’s the benefit of not claiming?

None unless you subscribe to awaclus's "town revealing their reads is bad" philosophy

[MiX]

It wouldn't be an issue in every case, but could become an issue if the numbers for and against were almost equal and the scum wants to lie about their vote.

It's only an issue if a scummy vote is the majority, which it shouldn't ever be.

It's really easy to come up with this scenario: Two townies are dueled, 5 town vote no, 3 town vote yes, 2 scum vote yes. Now when everyone claims you'll realized that scum wanted the duel to pass, which means it's not two scum. This is why it's useful, these scenarios can happen. Also you'll realize that no matter what split scum makes, you'll end up in conflicts. Thus claiming votes is good.

Now, how frequent is this? Well, I think scum wants to force a town vs town duel, especially later in the day, so they would do the above even if it looks bad, and town might vote yes: maybe one of them looks scummy? And I know I would just vote yes on the above as scum, it's a free mislynch.

Scenarios for claiming when there's no duel are weirder, but they stem from the same thing: all town voting for one thing and the other happening. We wouldn't know without claiming votes, so we should definitely claim votes every time.

[jotheonah]

I think knowing how everyone voted will be useful later when we have flips. So we might as well force people to commit to an answer now?

[Awaclus]

It wouldn't be an issue in every case, but could become an issue if the numbers for and against were almost equal and the scum wants to lie about their vote.

It's only an issue if a scummy vote is the majority, which it shouldn't ever be.

It's really easy to come up with this scenario: Two townies are dueled, 5 town vote no, 3 town vote yes, 2 scum vote yes. Now when everyone claims you'll realized that scum wanted the duel to pass, which means it's not two scum. This is why it's useful, these scenarios can happen. Also you'll realize that no matter what split scum makes, you'll end up in conflicts. Thus claiming votes is good.

What you mean is this scenario: Two townies are dueled, 5 people vote no, 5 people vote yes. Now when everyone claims you'll have no way of telling the two apart.

[MiX]

It wouldn't be an issue in every case, but could become an issue if the numbers for and against were almost equal and the scum wants to lie about their vote.

It's only an issue if a scummy vote is the majority, which it shouldn't ever be.

It's really easy to come up with this scenario: Two townies are dueled, 5 town vote no, 3 town vote yes, 2 scum vote yes. Now when everyone claims you'll realized that scum wanted the duel to pass, which means it's not two scum. This is why it's useful, these scenarios can happen. Also you'll realize that no matter what split scum makes, you'll end up in conflicts. Thus claiming votes is good.

What you mean is this scenario: Two townies are dueled, 5 people vote no, 5 people vote yes. Now when everyone claims you'll have no way of telling the two apart.

Yes. Sorry, I was too excited at finding that scenario to think about that part, was focused on "5 town say no so obviously they're all town!"

I think knowing how everyone voted will be useful later when we have flips. So we might as well force people to commit to an answer now?

Awaclus/faust answer: Everything else will be more useful later when we have flips.

MiX answer: Yeah that makes sense? I got nothing other than "that is factually true and you are speaking the truth in this sentence."

[mcmcsalot]

I'm very much in favor of everyone revealing how they voted. I would especially like to know e's vote given that he was in the "always duel" camp

I voted yes. I was looking forward to dueling, and lynching, you.

We would have had so much fun. Probably want the smartest vote and town saved me from myself, but I voted yes to the duel

I'm not sure why mcmc thinks it's scummy to vote yes for a duel you are in, but it is surprising.  ADK is always very towny, regardless of alignment.  Did you think you could win?

I think town is more likely to be afraid of any duel involving them and mafia is more likely to think they can win the duel and take the risk.

[Joseph2302]

I firmly believe that dueling for PRs is a valid strategy.

For all of you who are sold on ADK being town and assume I lose the duel, you don't trust ADK with a PR?

D1 lynch now gives us no benefit unless we catch scum. D1 duel gives us a PR that we can use.

Also, the information gained from no duel is significantly less because so many people claimed to be in the "never duel D1" camp. Assume more people expressed approval of a D1 duel and it doesn't happen. Then we learn something. Or people expressed no duel and then a duel happens. Again, we learn something.

Here we learned that people didn't want to duel, and there was no duel.

Exciting

Most sensible post today I think. And exactly why I (unsurprisingly) vote for the duel.
Because it's more info, and we'd probably get a PR out of it

[Joseph2302]

Also for now I want to Vote: ADK

My theory being that if there's a duel with a scum on it, then that's 50/50 that the scum does, compared to 3/14 with no duel

So in my mind, the no duel makes it slightly more likely that one of the duellers were scum. And as I'm agreeing more with the e logic, ADK seems like a better vote

[MiX]

Also for now I want to Vote: ADK

My theory being that if there's a duel with a scum on it, then that's 50/50 that the scum does, compared to 3/14 with no duel

So in my mind, the no duel makes it slightly more likely that one of the duellers were scum. And as I'm agreeing more with the e logic, ADK seems like a better vote

Scum easily votes on whatever here and we still get no duel, look at how many people were against it, so the fact that there's no duel means nothing. While publically they say whatever so neither of these point to ADK being scummier.

Vote: Joseph

[jotheonah]

7/7 split would default to no duel, right?

[MiX]

7/7 split would default to no duel, right?

Ties are duel.

[MiX]

7/7 split would default to no duel, right?

Ties are duel.

Also, I want Debatepro to claim their vote right now.

[Glooble]

Also for now I want to Vote: ADK

My theory being that if there's a duel with a scum on it, then that's 50/50 that the scum does, compared to 3/14 with no duel

So in my mind, the no duel makes it slightly more likely that one of the duellers were scum. And as I'm agreeing more with the e logic, ADK seems like a better vote

What you're missing is the fact that the scum in this scenario have two people who they know will vote for their opponent if necessary. That makes getting involved in the duel a lot safer for them. I think if I were scum I would vote for the duel unless the townie I was up against had a ton of towncred. And frankly, neither ADK nor e had that amount of towncred going into this vote.

[2.71828.....]

Also for now I want to Vote: ADK

My theory being that if there's a duel with a scum on it, then that's 50/50 that the scum does, compared to 3/14 with no duel

So in my mind, the no duel makes it slightly more likely that one of the duellers were scum. And as I'm agreeing more with the e logic, ADK seems like a better vote

What you're missing is the fact that the scum in this scenario have two people who they know will vote for their opponent if necessary. That makes getting involved in the duel a lot safer for them. I think if I were scum I would vote for the duel unless the townie I was up against had a ton of towncred. And frankly, neither ADK nor e had that amount of towncred going into this vote.

I mean, we didn't have "town cred" or "scum cred"

I hadn't really gotten into the game that well, I was very excited for the duel to be a forcing function to make that happen. And I suppose it did in a way

[Debatepro]

If someone other than MiX wants me to claim I will, but near zero is really zero.

[2.71828.....]

I don't think claiming is that important since everything happened just as planned. A majority of people said they didn't want to duel in the first 48 hours and violà! No duel

[2.71828.....]

If something strange happened like the duel actually taking place a claim would definitely be in order.

[MiX]

If someone other than MiX wants me to claim I will, but near zero is really zero.

Pfft, you just don't want to follow my plans because I'm the one saying it? But if I sheep it off someone else then it's suddently a good plan? Think for yourself for once!

Yes I am pissed by this line of thought. Please give me a reason to not follow what I say.

I don't think claiming is that important since everything happened just as planned. A majority of people said they didn't want to duel in the first 48 hours and violà! No duel

It's really not important anymore, except for Debatepro's vote.

[mcmcsalot]

I don't think claiming is that important since everything happened just as planned. A majority of people said they didn't want to duel in the first 48 hours and violà! No duel

Disagree, I still think everyone should claim. I don't think it gives scum too many reads info and it absolutely is info town can use both now and later.

[Awaclus]

7/7 split would default to no duel, right?

Ties are duel.

Also, I want Debatepro to claim their vote right now.

I want Debatepro to not claim their vote right now.

[Awaclus]

violà!

[Debatepro]

For the record, and I think my short meta confirms this, i am persuaded by reasons and logic, except when voting for MiX. I always go with my gut when voting for MiX.

Right now the best reason is for not revealing. Awaclas - "give scum info they can use."

[MiX]

For the record, and I think my short meta confirms this, i am persuaded by reasons and logic, except when voting for MiX. I always go with my gut when voting for MiX.

Right now the best reason is for not revealing. Awaclas - "give scum info they can use."

Do you think scum cares especially about YOUR vote? Because they don't. But I do.

If you think I'm scum why aren't you voting me?

[Debatepro]

I don't think claiming is that important since everything happened just as planned. A majority of people said they didn't want to duel in the first 48 hours and violà! No duel

Disagree, I still think everyone should claim. I don't think it gives scum too many reads info and it absolutely is info town can use both now and later.

How does town use this info now and later? It's easy for any scum to pull threads together to spin false narrative and nudge votes towards a specific town.

[Awaclus]

Do you think scum cares especially about YOUR vote? Because they don't.

Yes they do. Let's say e and ADK are both scum, then knowing that Debatepro didn't vote for the duel is useful knowledge that helps them decide who to NK.

[MiX]

Do you think scum cares especially about YOUR vote? Because they don't.

Yes they do. Let's say e and ADK are both scum, then knowing that Debatepro didn't vote for the duel is useful knowledge that helps them decide who to NK.

But not voting is so default that it basically says nothing about his reads. For all we know he didn't vote! Besides it's TWO DAYS OF READS are you telling me revealing two days of reads, of a player that didn't appear untill afterwards, says anything at all about their reads at the end of D1? No it doesn't! The upside is small but so clearly bigger than the downside.

[Awaclus]

But not voting is so default that it basically says nothing about his reads. For all we know he didn't vote! Besides it's TWO DAYS OF READS are you telling me revealing two days of reads, of a player that didn't appear untill afterwards, says anything at all about their reads at the end of D1? No it doesn't! The upside is small but so clearly bigger than the downside.

If not voting is the default, then it would be extra bad if scum found out that he voted yes.

[Robz888]

Ugh you people suck so badly. I voted for the duel and was looking forward to it.

Here’s to a completely random Day 1 culminating in a last minute mislynch of whomever isn’t on at the time, yay

[MiX]

But not voting is so default that it basically says nothing about his reads. For all we know he didn't vote! Besides it's TWO DAYS OF READS are you telling me revealing two days of reads, of a player that didn't appear untill afterwards, says anything at all about their reads at the end of D1? No it doesn't! The upside is small but so clearly bigger than the downside.

If not voting is the default, then it would be extra bad if scum found out that he voted yes.

This is false, no one has any hidden information about anyone's roles thus this """information" about his """reads""" is worth ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! Not now, at least. What you're saying is truthful things at a later stage of the game, then applying them when it's not true for towncred and "Awaclus points". No, I'm not letting you.

Vote: Awaclus

[MiX]

But not voting is so default that it basically says nothing about his reads. For all we know he didn't vote! Besides it's TWO DAYS OF READS are you telling me revealing two days of reads, of a player that didn't appear untill afterwards, says anything at all about their reads at the end of D1? No it doesn't! The upside is small but so clearly bigger than the downside.

If not voting is the default, then it would be extra bad if scum found out that he voted yes.

This is false, no one has any hidden information about anyone's roles thus this """information" about his """reads""" is worth ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! Not now, at least. What you're saying is truthful things at a later stage of the game, then applying them when it's not true for towncred and "Awaclus points". No, I'm not letting you.

Vote: Awaclus

Also you only addressed the first part of my post. Why?

[Awaclus]

What you're saying is truthful things at a later stage of the game

TIL N1 is a late stage of the game.

[Awaclus]

But not voting is so default that it basically says nothing about his reads. For all we know he didn't vote! Besides it's TWO DAYS OF READS are you telling me revealing two days of reads, of a player that didn't appear untill afterwards, says anything at all about their reads at the end of D1? No it doesn't! The upside is small but so clearly bigger than the downside.

If not voting is the default, then it would be extra bad if scum found out that he voted yes.

This is false, no one has any hidden information about anyone's roles thus this """information" about his """reads""" is worth ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! Not now, at least. What you're saying is truthful things at a later stage of the game, then applying them when it's not true for towncred and "Awaclus points". No, I'm not letting you.

Vote: Awaclus

Also you only addressed the first part of my post. Why?

I don't think there is an upside at all so I'm not sure what you were rambling on about.

[MiX]

What you're saying is truthful things at a later stage of the game

TIL N1 is a late stage of the game.

Someone's reads from two days is not going to be comparable to someone's development throughout the day. Not even slighly comparable. You're just lying for towncred.

But not voting is so default that it basically says nothing about his reads. For all we know he didn't vote! Besides it's TWO DAYS OF READS are you telling me revealing two days of reads, of a player that didn't appear untill afterwards, says anything at all about their reads at the end of D1? No it doesn't! The upside is small but so clearly bigger than the downside.

If not voting is the default, then it would be extra bad if scum found out that he voted yes.

This is false, no one has any hidden information about anyone's roles thus this """information" about his """reads""" is worth ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! Not now, at least. What you're saying is truthful things at a later stage of the game, then applying them when it's not true for towncred and "Awaclus points". No, I'm not letting you.

Vote: Awaclus

Also you only addressed the first part of my post. Why?

I don't think there is an upside at all so I'm not sure what you were rambling on about.

I have a reason to want to know Debatepro's vote. And joth's right (I think that's who said that) making scum claim now limits their options slightly.

[Awaclus]

Someone's reads from two days is not going to be comparable to someone's development throughout the day. Not even slighly comparable. You're just lying for towncred.

It's still better than nothing. If I was scum, getting to know which way a random townie voted would be more important to me than whatever "towncred" you think I'm getting out of this.

I have a reason to want to know Debatepro's vote.

Well it's nice of you to admit that. Vote: MiX

[A Drowned Kernel]

If someone other than MiX wants me to claim I will, but near zero is really zero.

I do

[A Drowned Kernel]

I don't think claiming is that important since everything happened just as planned. A majority of people said they didn't want to duel in the first 48 hours and violà! No duel

Stop saying that people said that, because people didn't say that. All people said is that they weren't going to automatically vote yes no matter who the candidates were

[MiX]

Someone's reads from two days is not going to be comparable to someone's development throughout the day. Not even slighly comparable. You're just lying for towncred.

It's still better than nothing. If I was scum, getting to know which way a random townie voted would be more important to me than whatever "towncred" you think I'm getting out of this.

False, this would go against your townmeta and if anyone caught it you would be lynched so fast you wouldn't believe. This is yet another lie.

I have a reason to want to know Debatepro's vote.

Well it's nice of you to admit that. Vote: MiX

Weak, predictable and null. Also you're already voting me.

[Debatepro]

If someone other than MiX wants me to claim I will, but near zero is really zero.

I do

I progressively elaborated my position, anyone other than mix with the best reason to reveal or not to reveal. My gut was telling me don’t do what MiX wants, but if others do then I will. Should have said I’ll consider it.

[Awaclus]

False, this would go against your townmeta and if anyone caught it you would be lynched so fast you wouldn't believe. This is yet another lie.

So you're saying that as town, I would do the thing that gets me lynched so fast I wouldn't believe? What sense does that make?

[Swowl]

7/7 split would default to no duel, right?

Ties are duel.

Side note that i found important, dunno if this is common info or not, but it caught me off guard.

Yes, ties are duels... however if you do not vote, nothing happens. As in it doesn’t default to “no duel”.

[MiX]

False, this would go against your townmeta and if anyone caught it you would be lynched so fast you wouldn't believe. This is yet another lie.

So you're saying that as town, I would do the thing that gets me lynched so fast I wouldn't believe? What sense does that make?

I'm saying that as town you would do the same here, which is pushing for no claims. That is null. Saying that you wouldn't do what you're doing as scum is the lie.

[A Drowned Kernel]

If someone other than MiX wants me to claim I will, but near zero is really zero.

I do

I progressively elaborated my position, anyone other than mix with the best reason to reveal or not to reveal. My gut was telling me don’t do what MiX wants, but if others do then I will. Should have said I’ll consider it.

How about: I don't see that claiming votes reveals any more info about people's reads to scum than normal voting and discussion, and that deliberately trying to hide who you do and do not want lynched is something scum would like to do

[jotheonah]

I would like debate and Awaclus and 0iX to claim.

[MiX]

If someone other than MiX wants me to claim I will, but near zero is really zero.

I do

I progressively elaborated my position, anyone other than mix with the best reason to reveal or not to reveal. My gut was telling me don’t do what MiX wants, but if others do then I will. Should have said I’ll consider it.

How about: I don't see that claiming votes reveals any more info about people's reads to scum than normal voting and discussion, and that deliberately trying to hide who you do and do not want lynched is something scum would like to do

Hmm...I don't think everyone's reads on everyone need to be public, and maybe ADK/e aren't going to be viable lynched today. So this is slightly wrong.

[Awaclus]

Saying that you wouldn't do what you're doing as scum is the lie.

I'm not sure how I would play this situation as scum. There's a number of things I could do if I was scum here, such as protesting against sharing this information and just trusting that town is going to ignore me and share it anyway, pretending to not be here until the information gets revealed and acting disappointed afterwards, or come up with an explanation for why I'm suddenly in favor of massclaiming information. But it is absolutely true that "if I was scum, getting to know which way a random townie voted would be more important to me than whatever 'towncred' you think I'm getting out of this".

[MiX]

Vote: Debatepro

Awaclus has one non-null post this game. And it's slightly towny. His reaction is null. Everything he does is null. He literally admitted to also doing this as scum, but of course scum!Awaclus does what town!Awaclus does. I'm pretty dissapointed this is the reaction but what else should I expect at this point...

Also I have a feeling no one can match me in terms of number of posts, so if I don't control myself I'll overwhelm the thread. Maybe ADK can? But from what I remember it was mostly faust, and, well.

[EFHW]

I don't think claiming is that important since everything happened just as planned. A majority of people said they didn't want to duel in the first 48 hours and violà! No duel

Disagree, I still think everyone should claim. I don't think it gives scum too many reads info and it absolutely is info town can use both now and later.

How does town use this info now and later? It's easy for any scum to pull threads together to spin false narrative and nudge votes towards a specific town.

There's no guarantee it will be helpful, but it could be. My position is less that it is informative and more that it keeps scum in line. It's a deterrent against clumping their votes and makes it harder, not easier, for them to "spin false narrative."

Your refusing to claim is puzzling.

[EFHW]

I would like debate and Awaclus and 0iX to claim.

What about DatSwan?

[jotheonah]

I would like debate and Awaclus and 0iX to claim.

What about DatSwan?

Him too.

[A Drowned Kernel]

If someone other than MiX wants me to claim I will, but near zero is really zero.

I do

I progressively elaborated my position, anyone other than mix with the best reason to reveal or not to reveal. My gut was telling me don’t do what MiX wants, but if others do then I will. Should have said I’ll consider it.

How about: I don't see that claiming votes reveals any more info about people's reads to scum than normal voting and discussion, and that deliberately trying to hide who you do and do not want lynched is something scum would like to do

Hmm...I don't think everyone's reads on everyone need to be public, and maybe ADK/e aren't going to be viable lynched today. So this is slightly wrong.

Not every vote needs to be public but this was a pretty major event that everyone had to take an active yes/no stance on. Usually admittedly subjective personal heuristics, I'm placing this as being of similar importance as knowing who was on or off a town lynch (but less importance as knowing who was on or off a scum lynch)

[A Drowned Kernel]

That should be "every read" not "every vote"

[EFHW]

I think it's time to go back to scumhunting,  and I therefore would like to know why e is still avoiding my questions about his Glooble vote.

[mcmcsalot]

What is this we got a couple no's so we don't want need other answers bs. Of course there are a bunch of no's, we collectively voted no duel i am curious to know all of the people who did vote for the duel.

[Debatepro]

There's no guarantee it will be helpful, but it could be. My position is less that it is informative and more that it keeps scum in line. It's a deterrent against clumping their votes and makes it harder, not easier, for them to "spin false narrative."

Your refusing to claim is puzzling.

I voted no duel, mostly because I wasn’t around and didn’t think there was enough info to have a strong opinion about e or adk.

[MiX]

There's no guarantee it will be helpful, but it could be. My position is less that it is informative and more that it keeps scum in line. It's a deterrent against clumping their votes and makes it harder, not easier, for them to "spin false narrative."

Your refusing to claim is puzzling.

I voted no duel, mostly because I wasn’t around and didn’t think there was enough info to have a strong opinion about e or adk.

I am dissapointed.

Okay the setup has failed me, let's get on with D1 shenanigans like we always do...

[A Drowned Kernel]

There's no guarantee it will be helpful, but it could be. My position is less that it is informative and more that it keeps scum in line. It's a deterrent against clumping their votes and makes it harder, not easier, for them to "spin false narrative."

Your refusing to claim is puzzling.

I voted no duel, mostly because I wasn’t around and didn’t think there was enough info to have a strong opinion about e or adk.

I am dissapointed.

Okay the setup has failed me, let's get on with D1 shenanigans like we always do...

I think we got a fair bit of useful discussion out this

[2.71828.....]

violà!

And I even looked up how to spell it to make sure I didn't miss up the spelling. And then I spelled it wrong.

[2.71828.....]

Let's try unexplained votes.

Vote: Glooble

I always try to build these airtight cases and am usually wrong. Let's see how this works without a case

So you just picked him at random? Are you expecting people to join?

Yeah, it was more a point of emphasis than a vote.

Unvote for now

[Swowl]

 I voted NO to the duel.

[Swowl]

Everyone needs to re read the post I made about "not voting for the duel". There could be a plan there down the road, but I can't come up with one.

This:

7/7 split would default to no duel, right?

Ties are duel.

Side note that i found important, dunno if this is common info or not, but it caught me off guard.

Yes, ties are duels... however if you do not vote, nothing happens. As in it doesn’t default to “no duel”.

To elaborate on this potential importance..
a) MoD confirmed.
b) Hypothetical accurate scenario - 14 players alive. 5 vote YES, 5 vote NO, 4 do nothing. We go to duel.

[Swowl]

DebatePro - The reason, imo at least, that specifically today right now (not necessarily later) that you should claim your vote is because it means nothing to skum. 48 hours of the game had passed when you had to make that choice. Reads don't matter at the time of the decision. All it does it create a data base of info.

Personally - I would of liked it if we just had not claimed, but since so many people have done so already, I think getting a full list neither helps skum nor hurts town... but it is info.

[Swowl]

DebatePro - The reason, imo at least, that specifically today right now (not necessarily later) that you should claim your vote is because it means nothing to skum. 48 hours of the game had passed when you had to make that choice. Reads don't matter at the time of the decision. All it does it create a data base of info.

Personally - I would of liked it if we just had not claimed, but since so many people have done so already, I think getting a full list neither helps skum nor hurts town... but it is info.

post catching up - just saw you did claim. mb. still stand by the reasoning.

[Swowl]

Update to Joth's previous list:

Claimed to vote YES (3):
e
Joseph
Robz


Claimed to vote NO (:
pubby
mcmcsalot
Glooble
ADK
EFHW
MiX
Debate
Swan


Hasn't claimed (3):
Awaclus
I0X
joth


1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.

2) As expected, even if everyone claimed, it wouldn't matter today. That is 8 no-claims... which means, as we had no duel, it means nothing today.

3) E! ... just wtf? So if you know you are town, then the options are that either ADK is also town or skum. As everyone here is in the same boat when it comes to "making reads day 1 and being inevitably incorrect"... and you supposedly know you are town... I assume you have another reason for voting yes other than "because you thought you could get ADK lynched"... right? Because voting yes as town to the duel when you are part of town in this spot just seems... like a bad idea.


Wouldn't be the first time I have over looked something. However, until that thing is pointed out:

Vote: E

[MiX]

Everyone needs to re read the post I made about "not voting for the duel". There could be a plan there down the road, but I can't come up with one.

This:

7/7 split would default to no duel, right?

Ties are duel.

Side note that i found important, dunno if this is common info or not, but it caught me off guard.

Yes, ties are duels... however if you do not vote, nothing happens. As in it doesn’t default to “no duel”.

To elaborate on this potential importance..
a) MoD confirmed.
b) Hypothetical accurate scenario - 14 players alive. 5 vote YES, 5 vote NO, 4 do nothing. We go to duel.

Swan is town and Debatepro would be town if he hadn't voted at all. That was why I wanted his vote.

I don't think this is important other than townreading players that got this confirmation (I also asked the mod about this), I can't really see a scenario where intentionally abstaining is anything but a safeclaim from scum (and good forn any town to do). In fact we should force everyone to vote.

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 1.4

Robz888 (2): pubby, EFHW
Debatepro (1): MiX
jotheonah (1): Robz888
e (2): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan
MiX (1): Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (1): Joseph2302
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, jotheonah, Glooble

Not Voting (3): Debatepro, Uncleeurope, e

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 8, 06:30 forum time. That is in 5 days and 1+ hours.

[jotheonah]

1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.

I was being coy because there was a very specific circumstance where I might have been able to gotcha scum, but with your claim that dream is dead.

At the last minute, I voted yes for the duel. It was a change in my previous thinking. For one thing, ADK had been scumread by Glooble, who I tend to trust, and e wasn’t having an exceptionally townie game. It felt like they were both decent day 1 lynches. And partly I felt it would be better for the vote to be closer, for this scenario we’re in right now.

[jotheonah]

Basically since I voted yes but people assumed I voted no, wemight have ended up in a situation where we had too many yes claims. It would require scum lying in a weird direction, but might have panned out if scum voted no and their were scum among {Robz, Joseph}.

[MiX]

Basically since I voted yes but people assumed I voted no, wemight have ended up in a situation where we had too many yes claims. It would require scum lying in a weird direction, but might have panned out if scum voted no and their were scum among {Robz, Joseph}.

DAMMIT that's exactly what I wanted to do! Stop being town! I feel bad now...

[Debatepro]

Basically since I voted yes but people assumed I voted no, wemight have ended up in a situation where we had too many yes claims. It would require scum lying in a weird direction, but might have panned out if scum voted no and their were scum among {Robz, Joseph}.

Since everyone knows the vote was "no duel" why would scum lie about their vote as a "yes duel". Seems more likely they vote yes and say they voted no. Unless scum are ignorant, there is no way until we get to read the QTs we can determine how someone voted.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Everyone needs to re read the post I made about "not voting for the duel". There could be a plan there down the road, but I can't come up with one.

This:

7/7 split would default to no duel, right?

Ties are duel.

Side note that i found important, dunno if this is common info or not, but it caught me off guard.

Yes, ties are duels... however if you do not vote, nothing happens. As in it doesn’t default to “no duel”.

To elaborate on this potential importance..
a) MoD confirmed.
b) Hypothetical accurate scenario - 14 players alive. 5 vote YES, 5 vote NO, 4 do nothing. We go to duel.

I don't think there is a plan there

[Joseph2302]

Basically since I voted yes but people assumed I voted no, wemight have ended up in a situation where we had too many yes claims. It would require scum lying in a weird direction, but might have panned out if scum voted no and their were scum among {Robz, Joseph}.

Okay that sounds towny to me

[MiX]

Basically since I voted yes but people assumed I voted no, wemight have ended up in a situation where we had too many yes claims. It would require scum lying in a weird direction, but might have panned out if scum voted no and their were scum among {Robz, Joseph}.

Since everyone knows the vote was "no duel" why would scum lie about their vote as a "yes duel". Seems more likely they vote yes and say they voted no. Unless scum are ignorant, there is no way until we get to read the QTs we can determine how someone voted.

Then everyone who voted yes is town.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Basically since I voted yes but people assumed I voted no, wemight have ended up in a situation where we had too many yes claims. It would require scum lying in a weird direction, but might have panned out if scum voted no and their were scum among {Robz, Joseph}.

Since everyone knows the vote was "no duel" why would scum lie about their vote as a "yes duel". Seems more likely they vote yes and say they voted no. Unless scum are ignorant, there is no way until we get to read the QTs we can determine how someone voted.

If e flips scum, scum would rather have said that they voted yes for the duel. In fact I think scum in general wants to claim Yes here, since that's the "townier" answer since you risk getting caught if you're lying

[A Drowned Kernel]

Basically since I voted yes but people assumed I voted no, wemight have ended up in a situation where we had too many yes claims. It would require scum lying in a weird direction, but might have panned out if scum voted no and their were scum among {Robz, Joseph}.

Since everyone knows the vote was "no duel" why would scum lie about their vote as a "yes duel". Seems more likely they vote yes and say they voted no. Unless scum are ignorant, there is no way until we get to read the QTs we can determine how someone voted.

Then everyone who voted yes is town.

I'm actually going to give joth scumpoints for coming out with a yes claim after there were enough no claims for it to be safe

[pubby]

vote: I0X

[pubby]

I agree with the e vote though. To me it makes sense to lynch in the sets of either {ADK, e} or of the people who voted yes. e is in both. I'll gladly change my vote to e if anyone wants to join in.

[jotheonah]

Basically since I voted yes but people assumed I voted no, wemight have ended up in a situation where we had too many yes claims. It would require scum lying in a weird direction, but might have panned out if scum voted no and their were scum among {Robz, Joseph}.

Since everyone knows the vote was "no duel" why would scum lie about their vote as a "yes duel". Seems more likely they vote yes and say they voted no. Unless scum are ignorant, there is no way until we get to read the QTs we can determine how someone voted.

Robz and/or Joseph might have felt like they had to lie because they were so adamant about being pro-duel before the vote.

[Awaclus]

Then everyone who voted yes is town.

That's not how it works.

[Joseph2302]

Basically since I voted yes but people assumed I voted no, wemight have ended up in a situation where we had too many yes claims. It would require scum lying in a weird direction, but might have panned out if scum voted no and their were scum among {Robz, Joseph}.

Since everyone knows the vote was "no duel" why would scum lie about their vote as a "yes duel". Seems more likely they vote yes and say they voted no. Unless scum are ignorant, there is no way until we get to read the QTs we can determine how someone voted.

Then everyone who voted yes is town.

Not objectively true, because someone who said they'd vote yes could vote no instead if they were scum

[EFHW]

I agree with the e vote though. To me it makes sense to lynch in the sets of either {ADK, e} or of the people who voted yes. e is in both. I'll gladly change my vote to e if anyone wants to join in.

I don't follow your reasoning here, about voting in {ADK,e} or about voting for the people who said yes. Can you say how you get to that?

[jotheonah]

Just did a quick re-read. I have a case, coming in the next post, but just leaving these tidbits here first.

THINGS PEOPLE SAID ABOUT VOTING BEFORE THE VOTE:

I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.

Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.

The fact that e thought he would get the PR makes his voting for his own duel more plausible.

I'm only going to vote yes on the duel today if it involves one of the fools wanting to duel so badly.

This is somewhat flip, but e was one of the folks who wanted to duel badly, so based on that pubby ought to have voted yes. But he voted no.

[Glooble]

1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.

I was being coy because there was a very specific circumstance where I might have been able to gotcha scum, but with your claim that dream is dead.

At the last minute, I voted yes for the duel. It was a change in my previous thinking. For one thing, ADK had been scumread by Glooble, who I tend to trust, and e wasn’t having an exceptionally townie game. It felt like they were both decent day 1 lynches. And partly I felt it would be better for the vote to be closer, for this scenario we’re in right now.

Hold up, when did I scumread ADK?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Just did a quick re-read. I have a case, coming in the next post, but just leaving these tidbits here first.

THINGS PEOPLE SAID ABOUT VOTING BEFORE THE VOTE:

I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.

Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.

The fact that e thought he would get the PR makes his voting for his own duel more plausible.

I'm only going to vote yes on the duel today if it involves one of the fools wanting to duel so badly.

This is somewhat flip, but e was one of the folks who wanted to duel badly, so based on that pubby ought to have voted yes. But he voted no.

If this is leading up to a pubby case I would be on board for that

[jotheonah]

I think Glooble is scum. vote: Glooble

I have been thinking this for a while but I didn't want to say it because I know some people assign a lot of weight to our reads on each other. I would ask you to pay attention to the case itself rather than that.

So this is more or less all of Glooble's posts and why they make him scummy. There are two parts to the case, plus a random scumtell.

1) He has played it as safe as one possibly could in the duel conversation, up until the point where having a strong opinion could actually help scum, at which point he developed one.

2) His case-making has been tentative, perfunctory, and unconvincing. His attempts at scumhunting read performative, and I think he's better than that when he's actually trying.

I'm neither pro-duel nor anti-duel. I will vote for a duel if I think it has a reasonably good chance of containing scum, and I will vote against a duel if it's more likely to me that both players are town. I'm not sure I see the advantage of having a default preference for duel or no duel.

This is exactly how scum positions themselves if they want to be safe however they vote. And it has the advantage of looking like a very sensible, towny position and staying neutral in the back and forth.

vote: DatSwan

Hard to articulate exactly why  but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.





clip -- Glooble's Swan case -- clip

These two posts, together and individually, just really feel to me like someone who is trying to make a case, not someone who is trying to determine who scum is.  It feels like the kind of case-making that you do when you know you’re not actually scumhunting. The fact that he states the vibe first and then makes the case further reinforces the idea that he wasn't so much looking for scum as choosing a person then building a case on them.

Well that was fun while it lasted. I now think DatSwan is town.

vote: pubby I guess?

And he immediately backs off the case when it fails to gain traction.

If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.

Safe vote explanation, set up by his prior post.

MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default

Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead

Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.

Meh. That's such a non-post.

I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.

This is actually the post that made me start looking at Glooble. Overly-apologetic/defensive is my top scumtell, though I know not everyone’s a fan.

Also for now I want to Vote: ADK

My theory being that if there's a duel with a scum on it, then that's 50/50 that the scum does, compared to 3/14 with no duel

So in my mind, the no duel makes it slightly more likely that one of the duellers were scum. And as I'm agreeing more with the e logic, ADK seems like a better vote

What you're missing is the fact that the scum in this scenario have two people who they know will vote for their opponent if necessary. That makes getting involved in the duel a lot safer for them. I think if I were scum I would vote for the duel unless the townie I was up against had a ton of towncred. And frankly, neither ADK nor e had that amount of towncred going into this vote.

This isn’t scummy in and of itself, but if scum voted no, it behooves scum to get town looking at claimed yes-voters.

[jotheonah]

1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.

I was being coy because there was a very specific circumstance where I might have been able to gotcha scum, but with your claim that dream is dead.

At the last minute, I voted yes for the duel. It was a change in my previous thinking. For one thing, ADK had been scumread by Glooble, who I tend to trust, and e wasn’t having an exceptionally townie game. It felt like they were both decent day 1 lynches. And partly I felt it would be better for the vote to be closer, for this scenario we’re in right now.

Hold up, when did I scumread ADK?

I was misremembering your Swan case it turns out.

[MiX]

Vote: Glooble, I didn't read the case but joth always has a good read on Glooble so I'll unconditionally sheep.








Now that I've triggered joth, I can say I like his case. Just one thing:

If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.

Safe vote explanation, set up by his prior post.

What prior post? And of course

MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default

Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead

Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.

Meh. That's such a non-post.

I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.

This is actually the post that made me start looking at Glooble. Overly-apologetic/defensive is my top scumtell, though I know not everyone’s a fan.

What was this about Glooble?

[Glooble]

Look, last game I had a scummy feeling about pingpongsam all game, but I never acted on it because I didn't have evidence. It turned out pps was scum. A few games ago on lynchpool I caught scum!shraeye based pretty much entirely on a gut read that I couldn't articulate. So I resolved to start trusting my reads more, hence the vote for Swan without explanation. Then mcmcsalot called me on it and everybody said they were townreading Swan, so I looked more closely, and figured out what it was I found scummy, but I also found some towny stuff in that reread. I didn't back off because the lynch wasn't gaining traction, I backed off because he made a post that felt very townie and changed my read on him.

I'm flattered that you think I'm better than this as town, but the fact is my day 1 cases as town pretty much always suck (and often they're on DatSwan.)

[Glooble]

Your case on me, though, is, frankly below your usual standards.

[A Drowned Kernel]

joth/glooble scumteam, calling it now

[Glooble]

If e and ADK are both town, I think we can almost certainly expect scum to have voted yes. But since there wasn't a duel, there's no incentive for scum to have claimed a yes vote- they would know, before anyone claimed, that there would be no way to refute an over-abundance of "no" votes, and a yes vote draws more suspicion. I think we are more likely to find scum among the "no" voters. Unfortunately, that group is huge, so it doesn't narrow things down very much.

[Robz888]

I think Joth's reasoning for being against dueling but then voting for one really holds up, and is extremely townie, not sure scum thinks that way. (I mean sure they do but WHATEVER DAY 1). So I have a big town read there. His Glooble case is fine.

I actually do think it's sort of scummy of E to vote for the duel that includes him, but did I read it right that he thought he gets the PR if he wins? I guess that would make him want to vote for it. Also I could sort of see E, who favors bold play, just voting for it anyway. Eh, I guess I'm thinking town here after all.

Vote: Glooble

[pubby]

I don't follow your reasoning here, about voting in {ADK,e} or about voting for the people who said yes. Can you say how you get to that?

No duel outcome is more likely if scum is is in the list of people dueling. The difference is weak but it does exist. For other days this is going to be negligible compared to other info but for d1 it seems better than picking randomly.

Yes voters are mildly suspicious because I consider duels anti-town d1.

For e it's weird he wanted to be in a duel unless he knew he could win it. ADK seems towny to me and I would definitely vote to kill e over ADK. I don't understand how he could view this differently unless he had buddies to support him.

did I read it right that he thought he gets the PR if he wins?

Nah a random player gets the PR.

[Glooble]

Like, I guess its a fine day one case? It's completely wrong, but so subjective that there's nothing in it that I can argue against.

[jotheonah]

prod request: 0iX

[jotheonah]

Pubby, why did you vote no after saying day 1 that you would vote for a duel if it involves an openly pro duel player (such as e)?

[silverspawn]

prod request: 0iX

Sent.

[pubby]

Pubby, why did you vote no after saying day 1 that you would vote for a duel if it involves an openly pro duel player (such as e)?

I didn't even check what e had said. I just remembered I didn't find him suspicious so I voted no duel.

[Joseph2302]

Pubby, why did you vote no after saying day 1 that you would vote for a duel if it involves an openly pro duel player (such as e)?

Good spot
Vote: pubby

[Debatepro]

Like, I guess its a fine day one case? It's completely wrong, but so subjective that there's nothing in it that I can argue against.

Preliminary thoughts on where joth falls on the town to scum spectrum?

[Glooble]

Like, I guess its a fine day one case? It's completely wrong, but so subjective that there's nothing in it that I can argue against.

Preliminary thoughts on where joth falls on the town to scum spectrum?

Other than his case on me, nothing has set off my scum radar. I need to do a reread though.

[MiX]

Look, last game I had a scummy feeling about pingpongsam all game, but I never acted on it because I didn't have evidence. It turned out pps was scum. A few games ago on lynchpool I caught scum!shraeye based pretty much entirely on a gut read that I couldn't articulate. So I resolved to start trusting my reads more, hence the vote for Swan without explanation. Then mcmcsalot called me on it and everybody said they were townreading Swan, so I looked more closely, and figured out what it was I found scummy, but I also found some towny stuff in that reread. I didn't back off because the lynch wasn't gaining traction, I backed off because he made a post that felt very townie and changed my read on him.

I'm flattered that you think I'm better than this as town, but the fact is my day 1 cases as town pretty much always suck (and often they're on DatSwan.)

Big (like really big) explanation for voting and unvoting Swan

Your case on me, though, is, frankly below your usual standards.

Like, I guess its a fine day one case? It's completely wrong, but so subjective that there's nothing in it that I can argue against.

Like, I guess its a fine day one case? It's completely wrong, but so subjective that there's nothing in it that I can argue against.

Preliminary thoughts on where joth falls on the town to scum spectrum?

Other than his case on me, nothing has set off my scum radar. I need to do a reread though.

[MiX]

That post deserves a conclusion. Glooble is scum. Okay now to prepare myself for the town flip...

[MiX]

Like, I guess its a fine day one case? It's completely wrong, but so subjective that there's nothing in it that I can argue against.

Preliminary thoughts on where joth falls on the town to scum spectrum?

Other than his case on me, nothing has set off my scum radar. I need to do a reread though.

Is joth town, null or scum? Why didn't you answer the question? Who are your scumbuddies?

[Glooble]

1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.

I was being coy because there was a very specific circumstance where I might have been able to gotcha scum, but with your claim that dream is dead.

At the last minute, I voted yes for the duel. It was a change in my previous thinking. For one thing, ADK had been scumread by Glooble, who I tend to trust, and e wasn’t having an exceptionally townie game. It felt like they were both decent day 1 lynches. And partly I felt it would be better for the vote to be closer, for this scenario we’re in right now.

Here's a thing - joth is saying he, at least partially, based his vote on my scum case against ADK, which was actually against DatSwan. Joth had a whole day to decide yes or no. You'd think he would have reread. I did. But if he had reread he would have seen that my case was on Swan. This seems like an easier mistake for scum!joth to have made while coming up with a townie justification for his vote.

[Glooble]

Like, I guess its a fine day one case? It's completely wrong, but so subjective that there's nothing in it that I can argue against.

Preliminary thoughts on where joth falls on the town to scum spectrum?

Other than his case on me, nothing has set off my scum radar. I need to do a reread though.

Is joth town, null or scum? Why didn't you answer the question? Who are your scumbuddies?

vote: joth

[MiX]

1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.

I was being coy because there was a very specific circumstance where I might have been able to gotcha scum, but with your claim that dream is dead.

At the last minute, I voted yes for the duel. It was a change in my previous thinking. For one thing, ADK had been scumread by Glooble, who I tend to trust, and e wasn’t having an exceptionally townie game. It felt like they were both decent day 1 lynches. And partly I felt it would be better for the vote to be closer, for this scenario we’re in right now.

Here's a thing - joth is saying he, at least partially, based his vote on my scum case against ADK, which was actually against DatSwan. Joth had a whole day to decide yes or no. You'd think he would have reread. I did. But if he had reread he would have seen that my case was on Swan. This seems like an easier mistake for scum!joth to have made while coming up with a townie justification for his vote.

I didn't.

Twin duel let's go!

[MiX]

Oh my I didn't fully read the PPE, amazing. Let's gooo twin duel best duel!

[Glooble]

Don't get me wrong, I totally believe joth could confuse DatSwan and ADK, regardless of alignment. What I don't believe is that he would consider my reads as part of his decision-making process without going back and rereading my case first.

[jotheonah]

Don't get me wrong, I totally believe joth could confuse DatSwan and ADK, regardless of alignment. What I don't believe is that he would consider my reads as part of his decision-making process without going back and rereading my case first.

This is a solid thought process. But it is exactly what happened, because my switch from no to yes was last minute and I needed to get it in before deadline.

[jotheonah]

I'm flattered that you think I'm better than this as town, but the fact is my day 1 cases as town pretty much always suck (and often they're on DatSwan.)

But you're not scummy because the case was bad (though it was). You're scummy because the case felt insincere. Which, yes, is kind of subjective and hard to argue against. Sorry.

I think town Glooble just doesn't say anything until he has something to say. I think scum!Glooble worries that he's not saying enough and feels like he has to come up with a case so he'll look townie. And that's what that case looked like to me.

[EFHW]

So, I've been looking over joth's case against Glooble, and I'm settling on

vote: joth.

This just seems like a nothing case. I thought the post where Glooble makes his duel stance was pretty sensible, and so did joth - he's voting him for trying to sound sensible, but maybe Glooble just is sensible! And DatSwan did come off kind of scummy when he first came in.

[A Drowned Kernel]

If e and ADK are both town, I think we can almost certainly expect scum to have voted yes. But since there wasn't a duel, there's no incentive for scum to have claimed a yes vote- they would know, before anyone claimed, that there would be no way to refute an over-abundance of "no" votes, and a yes vote draws more suspicion. I think we are more likely to find scum among the "no" voters. Unfortunately, that group is huge, so it doesn't narrow things down very much.

This line of reasoning is exactly why I think scum would want to say they voted yes

[A Drowned Kernel]

joth's case on glooble doesn't seem particularly great to me, glooble's stated stance on the duel on day one was basically the same as a lot of people's, joth's case seem to me as insincere as he's saying glooble's was and honestly seems like he might be trying to backtrack on buddying glooble too much

[jotheonah]

This is not a do or die case for me. I like playing with Glooble and I'd rather not D1 lynch him. And certainly I could be wrong, though my gut says I'm not. So my question, as always, is … what else ya got?

[Debatepro]

In my limited experience, Glooble has a good town detector for Joth. I’m not sure scum Joth would be so careless to directly confront the person in the game who ~probably~ has the most insight into them. Plus in my last game, Joth was scummy AF and he was Town. I’m nullish on his case.

[A Drowned Kernel]

vote: joth

[Swowl]

I find it unlikely Joth is skum.

I also considered doing what he did (voting yes to try and limit the claim pools). Skum would not do this. It doesn't matter *if it looks good today*. At some point in time in the future we will look back and separate the pools. Skum!Joth does not want to be in a 1/3 pool (if it is 1/3) vs the counter no-pool of 8 or however many people.

Also, and this is coming from me so I guess take it FWIW... but he probably just made a mistake and mixed me and ADK up.

E is still the most suspicious of players around.

[Swowl]

prod request: 0iX

its his first game. probably let him get settled, this is a weird day 1.

[MiX]

Glooble's vote on joth is scummier than anything either of them did all day, I don't think all the case talk matters as much as Glooble's attempt to direct all attention to whoever cased him. It feels...TOO defensive. Like the scum motivation is so obvious you should just accept that's exactly what the motivation for that vote was. But I might need to reread the circumstances.

Also look as Glooble's stance regarding joth: it's a flip flop into a very serious vote. I don't like ti.

[Joseph2302]

prod request: 0iX

its his first game. probably let him get settled, this is a weird day 1.

True, but have they actually posted yet?

[Debatepro]

prod request: 0iX

its his first game. probably let him get settled, this is a weird day 1.

True, but have they actually posted yet?

2 posts after the start of the game.

[jotheonah]

prod request: 0iX

its his first game. probably let him get settled, this is a weird day 1.

He met Silver in the championship. He’s not a n00b.

[MiX]

prod request: 0iX

its his first game. probably let him get settled, this is a weird day 1.

He met Silver in the championship. He’s not a n00b.

So...uh...Swan and 0Ix aren't scumbuddies? I'll take that.

[Glooble]

If e and ADK are both town, I think we can almost certainly expect scum to have voted yes. But since there wasn't a duel, there's no incentive for scum to have claimed a yes vote- they would know, before anyone claimed, that there would be no way to refute an over-abundance of "no" votes, and a yes vote draws more suspicion. I think we are more likely to find scum among the "no" voters. Unfortunately, that group is huge, so it doesn't narrow things down very much.

This line of reasoning is exactly why I think scum would want to say they voted yes

Maybe we're looking at this the wrong way. If scum are thinking about this like wagons, they probably want some on, some off - some yes claims and some no claims.


Or if they wanted to push town into lynching a yes claim, maybe they would all want to vote no and put themselves in the larger group.

[EFHW]

If I were scum, I wouldn't try anything hinky with the duel voting. We maybe caught them unawares this time by not bringing up vote claiming until after the vote, but I doubt it. It's going to be more of a deterrent than anything, and I don't think speculation about yes or no voters will get us anywhere. I feel like we have been going in circles on this with nothing to show for it.

e's specific vote of "yes" when he was one of the combatants is really interesting. It seems like a crazy risk for scum to take, but low utility for town. It is also possible that he voted no and is claiming yes, but why do that? Could be for towncred, except it's not a very towny move. If he's town, generating discussion was pro-town but getting lynched isn't. Sometimes I'll go with something just to make things interesting - like if someone sends me a cookie in the night, I'll probably eat it (chocolate please). Being one of the combatants could seem fun to him. I'd like to hear more from him about how he made this decision.

[A Drowned Kernel]

If e and ADK are both town, I think we can almost certainly expect scum to have voted yes. But since there wasn't a duel, there's no incentive for scum to have claimed a yes vote- they would know, before anyone claimed, that there would be no way to refute an over-abundance of "no" votes, and a yes vote draws more suspicion. I think we are more likely to find scum among the "no" voters. Unfortunately, that group is huge, so it doesn't narrow things down very much.

This line of reasoning is exactly why I think scum would want to say they voted yes

Maybe we're looking at this the wrong way. If scum are thinking about this like wagons, they probably want some on, some off - some yes claims and some no claims.


Or if they wanted to push town into lynching a yes claim, maybe they would all want to vote no and put themselves in the larger group.

It's all WIFOM, though, because I think that scum can pretty easily see that at this point, claiming to have voted yes will win you townpoints

PPE: I feel like I have a scumread on joth to show for it

[A Drowned Kernel]

Here's a question for e: was there another player that, if you had been paired with, you would have voted "no"?

[jotheonah]

Can we get a vote count and a deadline reminder?

[Robz888]

Unvote I guess.

Still reading Joth as town, though.

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 1.5

Glooble (2): jotheonah, MiX
Robz888 (1): pubby
jotheonah (3): Glooble, EFHW, A Drowned Kernel
e (1): DatSwan
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (2): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302

Not Voting (4): Debatepro, Uncleeurope, e, Robz888

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 8, 06:30 forum time. That is in 3 days and 19+ hours.

[jotheonah]

Oh good. For some reason I thought we had a lot less time.

[MiX]

Vote Count 1.5

Glooble (2): jotheonah, MiX
Robz888 (1): pubby
jotheonah (3): Glooble, EFHW, A Drowned Kernel
e (1): DatSwan
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (2): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302

Not Voting (4): Debatepro, 0Ix, e, Robz888

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 8, 06:30 forum time. That is in 3 days and 19+ hours.

These are weak wagons. I want more stances on joth/Glooble guys. Come on how can I be the only one voting Glooble?

I'm not rereading the fight until more people talk about it, no point in doing so when I only want to talk after more people state what they think.

[Robz888]

vote: Pubby. Absolutely no reason except I don’t like the other wagons and would prefer to lynch anyone like now.

[Swowl]

Here's a question for e: was there another player that, if you had been paired with, you would have voted "no"?

ooo that's a fun question.

[MiX]

vote: Pubby. Absolutely no reason except I don’t like the other wagons and would prefer to lynch anyone like now.

Can you show me a weak case that justifies this vote other any other?

[MiX]

vote: Pubby. Absolutely no reason except I don’t like the other wagons and would prefer to lynch anyone like now.

Can you show me a weak case that justifies this vote over any other?

EBWOP

[2.71828.....]

Sorry, work these past two days has been busy.

Here's a question for e: was there another player that, if you had been paired with, you would have voted "no"?

Probably not. I sometimes do things randomly and change my mind at the last minute, but likely would have been a yes

[Debatepro]

@ADK - you say in a couple posts that it is townier to vote yes for duel. Why is that?

[Robz888]

vote: Pubby. Absolutely no reason except I don’t like the other wagons and would prefer to lynch anyone like now.

Can you show me a weak case that justifies this vote other any other?

I think Joth is town and Glooble defended himself well so that leaves pubby.

[MiX]

vote: Pubby. Absolutely no reason except I don’t like the other wagons and would prefer to lynch anyone like now.

Can you show me a weak case that justifies this vote other any other?

I think Joth is town and Glooble defended himself well so that leaves pubby.

That's a pretty big leap. Where is pubby scummy?

[Awaclus]

vote: Pubby. Absolutely no reason except I don’t like the other wagons and would prefer to lynch anyone like now.

Can you show me a weak case that justifies this vote other any other?

I think Joth is town and Glooble defended himself well so that leaves pubby.

That's a pretty big leap. Where is pubby scummy?

Where has he proven that he isn't scummy?

[MiX]

vote: Pubby. Absolutely no reason except I don’t like the other wagons and would prefer to lynch anyone like now.

Can you show me a weak case that justifies this vote other any other?

I think Joth is town and Glooble defended himself well so that leaves pubby.

That's a pretty big leap. Where is pubby scummy?

Where has he proven that he isn't scummy?

BTW I realized something. Whoever is getting wagoned at the time of the duel has incentive to vote for the duel in order to save themselves for a day. This incentive could be pretty strong - I mean I only had 4 votes on me but I sure thought about it.

This comes straight out of a town mindset: Scum's thinking about the two targets and how many scum are in them and if they can get away with voting yes, whereas town's thinking about their own survival. I can probably scavenge some more but this is why I started townreading him.

[Awaclus]

This comes straight out of a town mindset: Scum's thinking about the two targets and how many scum are in them and if they can get away with voting yes, whereas town's thinking about their own survival. I can probably scavenge some more but this is why I started townreading him.

I didn't ask you to explain why he's town, which is pretty useless given that your idea of an IC overlaps with your idea of the scummiest person around. Has he explained it himself?

[jotheonah]

This comes straight out of a town mindset: Scum's thinking about the two targets and how many scum are in them and if they can get away with voting yes, whereas town's thinking about their own survival. I can probably scavenge some more but this is why I started townreading him.

Huh? Scum is definitely thinking about their own survival. Moreso than town, especially in a setup where most town are VTs.

[MiX]

This comes straight out of a town mindset: Scum's thinking about the two targets and how many scum are in them and if they can get away with voting yes, whereas town's thinking about their own survival. I can probably scavenge some more but this is why I started townreading him.

I didn't ask you to explain why he's town, which is pretty useless given that your idea of an IC overlaps with your idea of the scummiest person around. Has he explained it himself?

...I will probably stop answering your questions from here on.

This comes straight out of a town mindset: Scum's thinking about the two targets and how many scum are in them and if they can get away with voting yes, whereas town's thinking about their own survival. I can probably scavenge some more but this is why I started townreading him.

Huh? Scum is definitely thinking about their own survival. Moreso than town, especially in a setup where most town are VTs.

Not that way they aren't. Besides, revelations like his just happen way more to town.

[Awaclus]

...I will probably stop answering your questions from here on.

You can answer if you have something useful to say.

[MiX]

...I will probably stop answering your questions from here on.

You can answer if you have something useful to say.

Has he explained it himself?

No.

[A Drowned Kernel]

@ADK - you say in a couple posts that it is townier to vote yes for duel. Why is that?

My logic is sort of wifom-y, but I think the perception is that by claiming to vote yes, especially after a lot of people claim to vote no, makes you stand out, which is something scum ostensibly wants to avoid. Of course, something that is ostentatiously towny is something that's actually going to set off my scum radar.

Basically, it's scummy, therefore it's towny, therefore it's scummy

[EFHW]

This comes straight out of a town mindset: Scum's thinking about the two targets and how many scum are in them and if they can get away with voting yes, whereas town's thinking about their own survival. I can probably scavenge some more but this is why I started townreading him.

Huh? Scum is definitely thinking about their own survival. Moreso than town, especially in a setup where most town are VTs.

Anyone with a wagon on them at the time of duel selection will think about this. NAI.

[jotheonah]

Not only that, but if thinking about survival were towny, we would expect all town not nominated to vote yes (since it guarantees they’re not the day’s lynch).

[Robz888]

vote: Pubby. Absolutely no reason except I don’t like the other wagons and would prefer to lynch anyone like now.

Can you show me a weak case that justifies this vote other any other?

I think Joth is town and Glooble defended himself well so that leaves pubby.

That's a pretty big leap. Where is pubby scummy?

Defend your partner much?

[MiX]

Not only that, but if thinking about survival were towny, we would expect all town not nominated to vote yes (since it guarantees they’re not the day’s lynch).

That's a really big stretch. But feel free to ignore my townread, Awaclus didn't need it anyway so I don't know why we're spending so much time analyzing that (and only that). Where's all the joth/Glooble discussion? Or any other for that matter?

vote: Pubby. Absolutely no reason except I don’t like the other wagons and would prefer to lynch anyone like now.

Can you show me a weak case that justifies this vote other any other?

I think Joth is town and Glooble defended himself well so that leaves pubby.

That's a pretty big leap. Where is pubby scummy?

Defend your partner much?

So you don't have a case, gotcha. Also, lazy answer, that's what anyone would instantly think of.

[Glooble]

Look, I’m town. I don’t know what joth is, but his case on me feels just as insincere as he said my case on DatSwan was. Joth’s day 1 cases tend to have more meat on their bones, as it were, plus he’s usually good at reading me. That combined with the ADK/ Sean mistake which seems more likely to be a scum!joth mistake than a town!joth mistake, constitutes my entire case.

The flaw in my case is why scum!joth would choose to start a wagon on me rather than someone else, or wait for a townie to start a wagon then jump on that. The second one is somewhat explained by the fact that joth apparently thought we were a lot closer to the deadline then we are, we I guess could make him want to jumpstart a mislynch? Consider he was already on the pubby wagon and it didn’t look like it was picking up much steam.

Alternatively, if joth thought we were close to deadline and pubby was joth’s partner, he might have been afraid of town defaulting to a pubby lynch when we ran out of time.

[jotheonah]

Look, I’m town. I don’t know what joth is, but his case on me feels just as insincere as he said my case on DatSwan was. Joth’s day 1 cases tend to have more meat on their bones, as it were, plus he’s usually good at reading me. That combined with the ADK/ Sean mistake which seems more likely to be a scum!joth mistake than a town!joth mistake, constitutes my entire case.

The flaw in my case is why scum!joth would choose to start a wagon on me rather than someone else, or wait for a townie to start a wagon then jump on that. The second one is somewhat explained by the fact that joth apparently thought we were a lot closer to the deadline then we are, we I guess could make him want to jumpstart a mislynch? Consider he was already on the pubby wagon and it didn’t look like it was picking up much steam.

Alternatively, if joth thought we were close to deadline and pubby was joth’s partner, he might have been afraid of town defaulting to a pubby lynch when we ran out of time.

I can’t help but notice that your “flaw in my case” paragraph is longer than your “my case” paragraph. Usually not the sign of a strong case, buddy.

[EFHW]

Not only that, but if thinking about survival were towny, we would expect all town not nominated to vote yes (since it guarantees they’re not the day’s lynch).

That's a really big stretch. But feel free to ignore my townread, Awaclus didn't need it anyway so I don't know why we're spending so much time analyzing that (and only that). Where's all the joth/Glooble discussion? Or any other for that matter?

The "really big stretch" is joth extrapolating the implications of your statement that pubby is town because he was worried about surviving. You are shutting down discussion at the same time that you demand more discussion from everyone else.

[EFHW]

So you don't have a case, gotcha. Also, lazy answer, that's what anyone would instantly think of.

This is Robz's new meta. Be ostentiously lazy and make provocative anti-town suggestions. This has gotten him mislynched a couple times, but will probably end up being a good cover when he is scum.

[jotheonah]

Let's all do reads lists! That will be fun.

[jotheonah]

DatSwan -- neutral to town
Awaclus -- townier than normal, which actually could denote scum
jotheonah -- obv town. plz.
Glooble -- scumread
Joseph2302 -- scummish for pro-duel stance
2.71828..... -- most likely town
0Ix --
Debatepro -- neutral
MiX -- leaning town
EFHW -- excruciatingly townie
A Drowned Kernel -- leaning town
Robz888 -- trying to read day 1 Robz is a fool's errand, but also see: Joseph
pubby -- scummy in a vague way
mcmcsalot -- also highly townie

So I guess I want to re-read pubby, Awaclus, Robz & Joseph, and Debatepro.

[MiX]

Let's all do reads lists! That will be fun.

Hmm, I was going to reread, but I suppose a before/after reread list can't hurt...

DatSwan -- town
Awaclus -- towny, meh, Awaclus-towny
jotheonah -- town but his conviction is really poor. Could be scum with Glooble.
Glooble -- Scummy, scum with joth??? Weird.
Joseph2302 -- Scummy, not third-party, which is useless here.
2.71828..... -- voting yes' weird, somewhat towny
0Ix -- technically townier than null
Debatepro -- mislynch
MiX -- uuuh
EFHW -- towny
A Drowned Kernel -- towny enough to not be lynched (so probably scum, but not today)
Robz888 -- anti-town town
pubby -- town
mcmcsalot -- not dying today that's for sure


Hmm that's a lot of townreads. Let's see what happens after rereads...

[Awaclus]

Let's all do reads lists! That will be fun.

But I refuse.

[Glooble]

DatSwan - leaning town but still a tiny bit suspicious
Awaclus - he is acting less belligerent than usual, but I refuse to lynch him for that
jotheonah - not that scummy but scummier than anyone else to me right now
Glooble - town
Joseph2302 - null
2.71828..... - I could be convinced to vote here. I should reread.
0Ix - who?
Debatepro - can't remember anything he's done this game
MiX - townish
EFHW - town
A Drowned Kernel - probably town, despite our disagreements about how scum would act
Robz888 - null, this new meta sucks
pubby - was leaning scum, now leaning null
mcmcsalot - town

[A Drowned Kernel]

The scumteam: glooble, joth, mix
Everyone else is town

[MiX]

The scumteam: glooble, joth, mix
Everyone else is town

Dream team!

[A Drowned Kernel]

DatSwan - leaning town but still a tiny bit suspicious
Awaclus - he is acting less belligerent than usual, but I refuse to lynch him for that
jotheonah - not that scummy but scummier than anyone else to me right now
Glooble - town
Joseph2302 - null
2.71828..... - I could be convinced to vote here. I should reread.
0Ix - who?
Debatepro - can't remember anything he's done this game
MiX - townish
EFHW - town
A Drowned Kernel - probably town, despite our disagreements about how scum would act
Robz888 - null, this new meta sucks
pubby - was leaning scum, now leaning null
mcmcsalot - town

In all earnestness, I feel like there's way too much town and null on this list for it to be real

vote: glooble

[jotheonah]

Let's all do reads lists! That will be fun.

But I refuse.

color me surprised

[Glooble]

DatSwan - leaning town but still a tiny bit suspicious
Awaclus - he is acting less belligerent than usual, but I refuse to lynch him for that
jotheonah - not that scummy but scummier than anyone else to me right now
Glooble - town
Joseph2302 - null
2.71828..... - I could be convinced to vote here. I should reread.
0Ix - who?
Debatepro - can't remember anything he's done this game
MiX - townish
EFHW - town
A Drowned Kernel - probably town, despite our disagreements about how scum would act
Robz888 - null, this new meta sucks
pubby - was leaning scum, now leaning null
mcmcsalot - town

In all earnestness, I feel like there's way too much town and null on this list for it to be real

vote: glooble

If I had a strong scumread, or even a weak one, I'd be making a case on them.


And you'd better believe if I was scum I would have put a lot more scumreads on that list.

[Glooble]

As scum I would absolutely just make shit up, but I don't do that as town. So if I have no strong scumreads, you get a readlist with no strong scumreads.

[Glooble]

But seriously, why would I post a list like that as scum? "Oh, I'm about to get lynched, better deflect suspicion by saying... I think everybody is townie?"

Who does that?

[Awaclus]

But seriously, why would I post a list like that as scum? "Oh, I'm about to get lynched, better deflect suspicion by saying... I think everybody is townie?"

Who does that?

Well, now you are trying to deflect suspicion using the fact that you think everybody is townie as an argument. So apparently you do that.

[MiX]

But seriously, why would I post a list like that as scum? "Oh, I'm about to get lynched, better deflect suspicion by saying... I think everybody is townie?"

Who does that?

Someone who does not want to deflect to anyone in particular and knows that readlists without scum are too scummy to come from scum. Now, why wouldn't scum!Glooble want to deflect? Because either joth's scum (lol) or they think they can't lynch joth nor pubby and they don't know who else could be a real scumread from town!Glooble.

[A Drowned Kernel]

But seriously, why would I post a list like that as scum? "Oh, I'm about to get lynched, better deflect suspicion by saying... I think everybody is townie?"

Who does that?

"About to get lynched" is a pretty bizarre way to describe having two votes on you

[Glooble]

But seriously, why would I post a list like that as scum? "Oh, I'm about to get lynched, better deflect suspicion by saying... I think everybody is townie?"

Who does that?

"About to get lynched" is a pretty bizarre way to describe having two votes on you

It's not all about the number of votes.

[jotheonah]

The scumteam: glooble, joth, mix
Everyone else is town

Dream team!

for real

[jotheonah]

As scum I would absolutely just make shit up, but I don't do that as town. So if I have no strong scumreads, you get a readlist with no strong scumreads.

There is a third option you know, besides "make stuff up" and "make a list with no strong scumreads". I wonder if you can guess what it is...

[Glooble]

As scum I would absolutely just make shit up, but I don't do that as town. So if I have no strong scumreads, you get a readlist with no strong scumreads.

There is a third option you know, besides "make stuff up" and "make a list with no strong scumreads". I wonder if you can guess what it is...

Pull an Awaclus and refuse to make a list?

[jotheonah]

As scum I would absolutely just make shit up, but I don't do that as town. So if I have no strong scumreads, you get a readlist with no strong scumreads.

There is a third option you know, besides "make stuff up" and "make a list with no strong scumreads". I wonder if you can guess what it is...

Pull an Awaclus and refuse to make a list?

ooh I guess there were four. I was going for "reread the thread and develop some sincere scumreads"

[jotheonah]

I just iso'd pubby. ... what's the case there? He seems decently townie if a bit lurkish.

But you know who we should talk about? Awaclus! Anybody else feel like he's really off-meta? He's posting more, the posts are longer, and they're even helpful occasionally. I don't like it.

[Awaclus]

Anybody else feel like he's really off-meta? He's posting more, the posts are longer, and they're even helpful occasionally. I don't like it.

I don't think that's true?

[Awaclus]

I mean obviously my posts are helpful, otherwise I wouldn't post. I don't think I'm posting more or that the posts are longer.

[jotheonah]

I mean obviously my posts are helpful, otherwise I wouldn't post.

Who are you and what have you done with Awaclus?

[A Drowned Kernel]

I just iso'd pubby. ... what's the case there? He seems decently townie if a bit lurkish.

But you know who we should talk about? Awaclus! Anybody else feel like he's really off-meta? He's posting more, the posts are longer, and they're even helpful occasionally. I don't like it.

I don't think it's a scumtell

[A Drowned Kernel]

And are you already tired of taking about glooble?

[jotheonah]

And are you already tired of taking about glooble?

Kind of. Don't get me wrong, I still think he's our best lynch for today, but clearly the case isn't compelling for anyone else, and that combined with my own self-doubt makes me want to let him live for a night. There's some bias there, if it were anyone but Glooble I'd probably be digging my heels in and getting in a big fight, but I don't have the heart for it here. For day one, I'd rather find a consensus candidate ... as long as it's one that doesn't suck.

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 1.6

Glooble (3): jotheonah, MiX, A Drowned Kernel
Robz888 (1): pubby
jotheonah (2): Glooble, EFHW
e (1): DatSwan
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302, Robz888

Not Voting (3): Debatepro, Uncleeurope, eoxtremesti and 2nite_fox.

Not Voting (4): Pajax, TheLazarusMan92, Jibrel, dgogreen, Jibrel and brystof.

Not Voting (5): dgogreen, Pajax, TheLazarusMan92, , eoxtremesti and 2Nite_Fox.





Vote for me: 2nite_fox

Achievement:

[useful_posts]

Vote for me

Bobby (2):

[useful_posts]

Vote for me: Nite_Fox

Ace (4): [useful_posts]

Vote for me

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 8, 06:30 forum time. That is in 2 days and 15+ hours.

[pubby]

Vote: Joseph2302 

[EFHW]

Vote: Joseph2302 

Why?

[Awaclus]

Vote: pubby

[EFHW]

vote: pubby

[jotheonah]

That's L3, I believe.

[Joseph2302]

Vote: pubby
L-2 I believe

[Joseph2302]

Rereading, I was thinking of voting pubby anyway, and the unexplained vote for me from nowhere seems like desperate scum trying to just start random wagons

[Joseph2302]

Forget that, I was already voting pubby, so still L-3. This is what happens when I decide to post at 4am......

[Joseph2302]

And do we have a plurality lynch? Because it's mentioned, but only in the section about how dual works

[MiX]

Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I haven't seen anyone address this: do the one-shot PRs need to be used the night they're gained?

If so then dueling day 1's awful and I'm glad we didn't do it.

Rereading basically reminds me of why I voted pubby in the first place, that might be a good lynch, but I haven't gone through the entire game yet.

[silverspawn]

do the one-shot PRs need to be used the night they're gained?

They do not. However, if they aren't, then they cannot be used later in the game.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Pubby isn't the worst lynch but I would like to hear from the people who aren't currently voting

[pubby]

I haven't been paying much attention to this game. Just not feeling interested I guess. I usually bumble my way through these games but I'm surprised you guys are interpreting that as malicious this time.

Vote: Joseph2302 

Why?

My previous vote (0IX) was recorded incorrectly so I wanted to change it. Joseph reads fairly scummy to me and has not had not received much attention.

[MiX]

I haven't been paying much attention to this game. Just not feeling interested I guess. I usually bumble my way through these games but I'm surprised you guys are interpreting that as malicious this time.

Vote: Joseph2302 

Why?

My previous vote (0IX) was recorded incorrectly so I wanted to change it. Joseph reads fairly scummy to me and has not had not received much attention.

What about e?

[pubby]

I'd vote e, Glooble, or Joseph today. e is scummy based on votes, but the other two are scummy based on reads. Joseph is the one voting for me though, so screw that guy  .

[MiX]

I'd vote e, Glooble, or Joseph today. e is scummy based on votes, but the other two are scummy based on reads. Joseph is the one voting for me though, so screw that guy  .

Joseph's not dying today. Who would you vote out of those 2?

[Robz888]

We should lynch pubby and anyone waiting or waffling to drag this out is pathologically anti-town. That is all.

[jotheonah]

We should lynch pubby and anyone waiting or waffling to drag this out is pathologically anti-town. That is all.

I really did miss you Robz. I hope you're not scum.


How is the case on pubby not a pile of nothing?

[2.71828.....]

We should lynch pubby and anyone waiting or waffling to drag this out is pathologically anti-town. That is all.

I really did miss you Robz. I hope you're not scum.


How is the case on pubby not a pile of nothing?

Sometimes a pile of nothing hits scum.

But speaking of waffling, I am not currently voting. I am on a van ride the next several hours, I will reread and amend that before reaching my destination

[jotheonah]

Sometimes a pile of nothing hits scum.

And twice a day a stopped clock tells the correct time.

[A Drowned Kernel]

We should lynch pubby and anyone waiting or waffling to drag this out is pathologically anti-town. That is all.

What's good about the pubby lynch that's bad about the glooble or joth lynch?

[Debatepro]

Pubby isn't the worst lynch but I would like to hear from the people who aren't currently voting

Isn’t that just me and the one who is missing in action. Puppy is a better choice than flipping a coin. We still have time.

[Swowl]

I haven't been paying much attention to this game. Just not feeling interested I guess. I usually bumble my way through these games but I'm surprised you guys are interpreting that as malicious this time.

Vote: Joseph2302 

Why?

My previous vote (0IX) was recorded incorrectly so I wanted to change it. Joseph reads fairly scummy to me and has not had not received much attention.

What about e?

still this.

[Swowl]

also mix - why so set on no Joseph?

[Robz888]

We should lynch pubby and anyone waiting or waffling to drag this out is pathologically anti-town. That is all.

What's good about the pubby lynch that's bad about the glooble or joth lynch?

I've already answered this: I have town reads on glooble and joth. So it's pretty obvious why I prefer pubby.

[MiX]

also mix - why so set on no Joseph?

No need when we have scummier players. I'm not very good at reading Joseph, but I think he's towny and I think most people would agree (maybe?).

[A Drowned Kernel]

We should lynch pubby and anyone waiting or waffling to drag this out is pathologically anti-town. That is all.

What's good about the pubby lynch that's bad about the glooble or joth lynch?

I've already answered this: I have town reads on glooble and joth. So it's pretty obvious why I prefer pubby.

Well, I have to say that I don't share those reads. I'd be willing to lynch either of them

[2.71828.....]

If it is Joseph our pubby, vote: joseph

His pubby vote was just off imo.

But really, people jumping in the pubby wagon feel scummy as just opportunistic let's get a lunch done.

So vote: Robz

Granted I am all about getting lynches through, but Joseph literally voted because of an alleged mistake by pubby which is ridiculous. To ridiculous for scum imo.

Robz is scummy for joining there.

Apologize for any typos slightly DAMA, sleeping now

[Swowl]

Down.

Vote: Robz

[EFHW]

Fine with me. vote: Robz

[Debatepro]

Finally something to agree with, calling folks anti-town for not voting pubby seemed scummy.

vote: robz

[pubby]

vote: robz

[A Drowned Kernel]

Speaking of opportunistic voting...

[A Drowned Kernel]

Finally something to agree with, calling folks anti-town for not voting pubby seemed scummy.

vote: robz

But not scummy enough for you to mention it before other people started voting?

vote: debatepro

[Debatepro]

Finally something to agree with, calling folks anti-town for not voting pubby seemed scummy.

vote: robz

But not scummy enough for you to mention it before other people started voting?

vote: debatepro

No, not scummy enough to vote for before at least one person I have a strong town read on voted for them.

[Swowl]

OK so that was an insane amount of people jumping to Robz right after I moved my not-useful vote (at the time) from E to Robz.

Here is what it looked like:

Vote Count Previous

Glooble (3): jotheonah, MiX, A Drowned Kernel
Joseph (1): pubby
jotheonah (1): Glooble,
e (1): DatSwan
pubby (5): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302, Robz888, Awaclus, EFHW
Not Voting (3): Debatepro, 0Ix, e




Vote Count Current

Glooble (2): jotheonah, MiX
Robz (5): E, DatSwan, EFHW, Debatepro, Pubby
jotheonah (1): Glooble
pubby (4): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302, Robz888, Awaclus
Debatepro (1): ADK
Not Voting (1): 0IX



That is town vs town almost for sure. Really really for sure most likely not robz skum, followed closely by not pubby skum. [EFHW, Debate], [Joth, Mix, Glooble, ADK, 0IX]  seem like good pools to look at.

For my own reasons I like [Debate, MiX, ADK] - in that order. Most likely only one in there though.

Vote: Debate

[Swowl]

DL in 30 hours or so btw all... I will be around until like 5 hours before. most likely not here at DL itself because it is 6am on sunday where I am at.

[MiX]

Finally something to agree with, calling folks anti-town for not voting pubby seemed scummy.

vote: robz

But not scummy enough for you to mention it before other people started voting?

vote: debatepro

No, not scummy enough to vote for before at least one person I have a strong town read on voted for them.

You're gonna have to start having original ideas fast before you're mislynched every game.

Vote: Debatepro

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 1.7

Glooble (1): jotheonah
Robz888 (4): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby
Debatepro (3): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, MiX
jotheonah (1): Glooble
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302

Not Voting (1): Uncleeurope

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 8, 06:30 forum time. That is in 26h 9m.

[MiX]

Down.

Vote: Robz

Fine with me. vote: Robz

Finally something to agree with, calling folks anti-town for not voting pubby seemed scummy.

vote: robz

vote: robz

What's the likelyhood there's 1 scum here? If there is, I would say that I agree with Swan when he says Robz/pubby is town v town, so scum here has to be Debatepro.

[MiX]

If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.

Can you expand on this idea? What were you thinking about exactly when you said this?

[MiX]

also mix - why so set on no Joseph?

No need when we have scummier players. I'm not very good at reading Joseph, but I think he's towny and I think most people would agree (maybe?).

I withdraw this statement: adding Joseph to the lynch pool alongside Glooble/pubby/Debatepro. Does anyone have better lynches?

[2.71828.....]

Yeah, wow. That wagon grew quickly. Not sure I agree that scum has to be in one of the pile on votes, but it does seem likely.

It almost makes me suspect pubby/Glooble more looking at what wagons people are trying to quickly abandon for an alternative.

[Awaclus]

Vote Count 1.7

Glooble (1): jotheonah
Robz888 (4): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby
Debatepro (3): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, MiX
jotheonah (1): Glooble
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302

Not Voting (1): 0Ix

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 8, 06:30 forum time. That is in 26h 9m.

I should be voting for pubby.

[MiX]

I haven't been paying much attention to this game. Just not feeling interested I guess. I usually bumble my way through these games but I'm surprised you guys are interpreting that as malicious this time.

Vote: Joseph2302 

Why?

My previous vote (0IX) was recorded incorrectly so I wanted to change it. Joseph reads fairly scummy to me and has not had not received much attention.

What about e?

still this.

I'd vote e, Glooble, or Joseph today. e is scummy based on votes, but the other two are scummy based on reads. Joseph is the one voting for me though, so screw that guy  .

Helping Swan find his answer. But also:

Pubby why did you vote 0Ix?

[Glooble]

If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.

Can you expand on this idea? What were you thinking about exactly when you said this?

We have no idea what the roles are, except that there are four of them, and they probably don’t include jailkeeper. Still most roles are going to do nothing unless you hit scum (vig, roleblocker) or hit the NK target (doctor). The odds of getting that right night 1 in a town this big are extremely slim.

The one role that silver might include that would actually be good night 1 is cop, but even that is iffy with the scum player getting to know what the power would have been, since they can fake claim freely so you can’t really even trust the result until the cop is dead.

[MiX]

If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.

Can you expand on this idea? What were you thinking about exactly when you said this?

We have no idea what the roles are, except that there are four of them, and they probably don’t include jailkeeper. Still most roles are going to do nothing unless you hit scum (vig, roleblocker) or hit the NK target (doctor). The odds of getting that right night 1 in a town this big are extremely slim.

Why do we have to use them night 1?

[Glooble]

I don’t see DatSwan’s reasoning at all by the way, about Robz. “The wagon built fast so it must be on town” is one of those arguments that comes up every game and has almost no basis in reality.

PPE: It’s in the rules post. If we don’t use them might one they go away.

[Glooble]

...  [2] At the start of the following night, a random player is selected. If they are town, they receive one of a list of one-shot powers (randomly selected) which they may use that night. If they are mafia, they will be told what that power is but will not receive it. This list of powers is fixed pre-game by the mod but is not revealed. All powers in it are either standard or standard with minor variations. The same power will not be selected twice in the game (regardless of whether the player was town or mafia). The list consists of four entries. In the case that all four are used up throughout the game, the duel mechanic disappears and further days are 240 hours long.

Bolding mine.

[MiX]

...  [2] At the start of the following night, a random player is selected. If they are town, they receive one of a list of one-shot powers (randomly selected) which they may use that night. If they are mafia, they will be told what that power is but will not receive it. This list of powers is fixed pre-game by the mod but is not revealed. All powers in it are either standard or standard with minor variations. The same power will not be selected twice in the game (regardless of whether the player was town or mafia). The list consists of four entries. In the case that all four are used up throughout the game, the duel mechanic disappears and further days are 240 hours long.

Bolding mine.

Sure, but I only asked this here:

Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I haven't seen anyone address this: do the one-shot PRs need to be used the night they're gained?

How did you deduce that you couldn't use them at any other night?

Vote: Glooble

[Glooble]

MiX, that’s been I. The set-up post the whole time.

[Glooble]

*in

[MiX]

MiX, that’s been in the set-up post the whole time.

Fine, but it's really not clear just from reading it. Unless it is and I can't read?

[Glooble]

It was completely clear to me. If you could use the power for the rest of the game he would have said that.

[MiX]

Vote: Debatepro

[MiX]

MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default

Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead

Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.

Meh. That's such a non-post.

I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.

What was this about Glooble?

Can you tell I'm looking for reasons to scumread you?

[MiX]

If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.

Safe vote explanation, set up by his prior post.

What prior post?

Well then I guess both questions in that post were ignored so I need to repost them. That's what I get for doing things between a twin fight.

[Glooble]

MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default

Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead

Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.

Meh. That's such a non-post.

I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.

What was this about Glooble?

Can you tell I'm looking for reasons to scumread you?

It was about I made a joke, you took it as an accusation, I didn’t mean it as one so I set the record straight.

[MiX]

Glooble (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (1): Glooble

Can both of you (especially Glooble) explain what this is supposed to mean to everyone else?

This is my way of asking "why is he the scummiest player" to both of you.

[Glooble]

Glooble (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (1): Glooble

Can both of you (especially Glooble) explain what this is supposed to mean to everyone else?

This is my way of asking "why is he the scummiest player" to both of you.

I still think joth’s more than likely scum. But you’re right, it’s not a useful place to have my vote right now.

I’m gonna join this Robz train. He’s a very good joth partner candidate.

vote: Robz

[silverspawn]

I should be voting for pubby.

The program recognizes the name as whatever is bolded and after the colon and whitespace of a vote. Since you put the smiley inside of the bolded tags, you voted for "pubby ", which is not a valid nickname for pubby. Please vote again.

[Awaclus]

I should be voting for pubby.

The program recognizes the name as whatever is bolded and after the colon and whitespace of a vote. Since you put the smiley inside of the bolded tags, you voted for "pubby ", which is not a valid nickname for pubby. Please vote again.

That's stupid.

Vote: pubby

[MiX]

Glooble (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (1): Glooble

Can both of you (especially Glooble) explain what this is supposed to mean to everyone else?

This is my way of asking "why is he the scummiest player" to both of you.

I still think joth’s more than likely scum.

Why? And I ask this less because I want to sheep you but more because I want to direct the lynch towards you and I'll need good arguments for that. But I do want to sheep, just not today.

[EFHW]

...  [2] At the start of the following night, a random player is selected. If they are town, they receive one of a list of one-shot powers (randomly selected) which they may use that night. If they are mafia, they will be told what that power is but will not receive it. This list of powers is fixed pre-game by the mod but is not revealed. All powers in it are either standard or standard with minor variations. The same power will not be selected twice in the game (regardless of whether the player was town or mafia). The list consists of four entries. In the case that all four are used up throughout the game, the duel mechanic disappears and further days are 240 hours long.

Bolding mine.

Sure, but I only asked this here:

Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I haven't seen anyone address this: do the one-shot PRs need to be used the night they're gained?

How did you deduce that you couldn't use them at any other night?

Vote: Glooble

Why are you voting Glooble over this but not me? I don't understand this tunneling of Glooble. 

[EFHW]

Unless you are actually trying to clear him?

[MiX]

...  [2] At the start of the following night, a random player is selected. If they are town, they receive one of a list of one-shot powers (randomly selected) which they may use that night. If they are mafia, they will be told what that power is but will not receive it. This list of powers is fixed pre-game by the mod but is not revealed. All powers in it are either standard or standard with minor variations. The same power will not be selected twice in the game (regardless of whether the player was town or mafia). The list consists of four entries. In the case that all four are used up throughout the game, the duel mechanic disappears and further days are 240 hours long.

Bolding mine.

Sure, but I only asked this here:

Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I haven't seen anyone address this: do the one-shot PRs need to be used the night they're gained?

How did you deduce that you couldn't use them at any other night?

Vote: Glooble

Why are you voting Glooble over this but not me? I don't understand this tunneling of Glooble. 

I asked myself the very same question when I voted. The tunnel's...pretty hard here.

I just want to be right on Glooble before I move onto Robz/pubby/Debatepro (or something, those seem like the lynches for today).

Unless you are actually trying to clear him?

Uuuuuh I'm trying to remove the tunnel, idk if that's trying to clear Glooble.

[EFHW]

Can we have a sub for 0Ix?

[jotheonah]

vote: debatepro

[MiX]

Look at the current wagons:

Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (4): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, MiX, jotheonah
pubby (4): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus

Man, if the twin fight doesn't have scum in it...I'll wake up from the dream.

[EFHW]

Look at the current wagons:

Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (4): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, MiX, jotheonah
pubby (4): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus

Man, if the twin fight doesn't have scum in it...I'll wake up from the dream.

What? We're all consolidated into 3 wagons. Obviously some of the voters are scum. I don't see how you draw inferences about anybody from this vote count.

[MiX]

Look at the current wagons:

Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (4): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, MiX, jotheonah
pubby (4): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus

Man, if the twin fight doesn't have scum in it...I'll wake up from the dream.

What? We're all consolidated into 3 wagons. Obviously some of the voters are scum. I don't see how you draw inferences about anybody from this vote count.

What's of note there is that the joth and Glooble wagons vanished. I guess that wasn't clear.

[EFHW]

I can see one inference,  which is that Robz and pubby are not likely to be partners.

Ppe: yeah

[Debatepro]

Finally something to agree with, calling folks anti-town for not voting pubby seemed scummy.

vote: robz

But not scummy enough for you to mention it before other people started voting?

vote: debatepro

No, not scummy enough to vote for before at least one person I have a strong town read on voted for them.

You're gonna have to start having original ideas fast before you're mislynched every game.

Vote: Debatepro

Don't be dick. The reason for my vote is original and stated by no one. That someone I have a strong town read on also voted for and without a stated reason, made it feel more right. 

[Debatepro]

That is town vs town almost for sure. Really really for sure most likely not robz skum, followed closely by not pubby skum. [EFHW, Debate], [Joth, Mix, Glooble, ADK, 0IX]  seem like good pools to look at.

For my own reasons I like [Debate, MiX, ADK] - in that order. Most likely only one in there though.

Vote: Debate

Remember in our last game, where I had this brilliant (in my own mind) VCA that included you in every pool? Your reply struck me, you said something like "that's some pretty good analysis, but something is wrong with it because you have me as scum in every single case and that is 100% not true" You were right, made me question my assumptions and we won the game. You need to do that here.

[EFHW]

Finally something to agree with, calling folks anti-town for not voting pubby seemed scummy.

vote: robz

But not scummy enough for you to mention it before other people started voting?

vote: debatepro

No, not scummy enough to vote for before at least one person I have a strong town read on voted for them.

You're gonna have to start having original ideas fast before you're mislynched every game.

Vote: Debatepro

Don't be dick. The reason for my vote is original and stated by no one. That someone I have a strong town read on also voted for and without a stated reason, made it feel more right.

This is uncivil and you are claiming that sheeping is an original idea?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Look at the current wagons:

Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (4): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, MiX, jotheonah
pubby (4): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus

Man, if the twin fight doesn't have scum in it...I'll wake up from the dream.

What? We're all consolidated into 3 wagons. Obviously some of the voters are scum. I don't see how you draw inferences about anybody from this vote count.

What's of note there is that the joth and Glooble wagons vanished. I guess that wasn't clear.

Are you saying that the wagons disappearing points to there being scum in joth/glooble?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Finally something to agree with, calling folks anti-town for not voting pubby seemed scummy.

vote: robz

But not scummy enough for you to mention it before other people started voting?

vote: debatepro

No, not scummy enough to vote for before at least one person I have a strong town read on voted for them.

You're gonna have to start having original ideas fast before you're mislynched every game.

Vote: Debatepro

Don't be dick. The reason for my vote is original and stated by no one. That someone I have a strong town read on also voted for and without a stated reason, made it feel more right.

This is uncivil and you are claiming that sheeping is an original idea?

 I would point out that debate did provide a reason for his vote, he just didn't do it until other people were voting

[Debatepro]

Finally something to agree with, calling folks anti-town for not voting pubby seemed scummy.

vote: robz

But not scummy enough for you to mention it before other people started voting?

vote: debatepro

No, not scummy enough to vote for before at least one person I have a strong town read on voted for them.

You're gonna have to start having original ideas fast before you're mislynched every game.

Vote: Debatepro

Don't be dick. The reason for my vote is original and stated by no one. That someone I have a strong town read on also voted for and without a stated reason, made it feel more right.

This is uncivil and you are claiming that sheeping is an original idea?

@MiX: Apologies for the ad hominem. It is not fair to say that failure to have my own ideas is going to continue to get me lynched in every game. I have a stated reason and another data point made me feel better about that reason. I find the comment you made condescending and arrogant, and it is this pattern in your post that results in you getting mislynched.

[Debatepro]

This is uncivil and you are claiming that sheeping is an original idea?

I would point out that debate did provide a reason for his vote, he just didn't do it until other people were voting

I'm looking at every vote in a spreadsheet, 55 in total as of #548. Over 60% of them meet the condition you described above. More if you include those who don't provide reasons.

[jotheonah]

I think Robz is town but I doubt there’s much scum in the five-vote pile-on because scum is scared to be that obvious.

Glooble’s gravitating toward the Robz wagon reaffirms my scumread on him.

I will most likely not be around at deadline, barring a bout of insomnia.

[A Drowned Kernel]

This is uncivil and you are claiming that sheeping is an original idea?

I would point out that debate did provide a reason for his vote, he just didn't do it until other people were voting

I'm looking at every vote in a spreadsheet, 55 in total as of #548. Over 60% of them meet the condition you described above. More if you include those who don't provide reasons.

You voted immediately after two people and your reason, while original, was not very compelling

That said, the eagerness with which people are now switching to non-pubby wagons kind of makes me want to swing back there

[MiX]

This is uncivil and you are claiming that sheeping is an original idea?

I would point out that debate did provide a reason for his vote, he just didn't do it until other people were voting

I'm looking at every vote in a spreadsheet, 55 in total as of #548. Over 60% of them meet the condition you described above. More if you include those who don't provide reasons.

Which of the 40% are yours?

I don't have time to fight you in ad hominem attacks.

Vote: pubby

[MiX]

The reason for my vote is original and stated by no one.

What is this reason?

[Debatepro]

prod request: mcmcsalot

It's been 4.5 days since their last post, I don't see a VLA message.

Voting history:

Vote#	Post#	By	For
11	155	MCMC	Pubby

[Glooble]

I think Robz is town but I doubt there’s much scum in the five-vote pile-on because scum is scared to be that obvious.

Glooble’s gravitating toward the Robz wagon reaffirms my scumread on him.

I will most likely not be around at deadline, barring a bout of insomnia.

Why do I get the feeling that anywhere I would have voted would have reaffirmed your “scumread” on me?

[Glooble]

MiX, yes I saw your question, I just don’t have any more reasons than the ones I’ve already stated.

[Glooble]

I think Robz is town but I doubt there’s much scum in the five-vote pile-on because scum is scared to be that obvious.

Glooble’s gravitating toward the Robz wagon reaffirms my scumread on him.

I will most likely not be around at deadline, barring a bout of insomnia.

So let me get this straight- scum wouldn’t vote for Robz before people started questioning the Robz wagon because it would be “too obvious” but my voting for Robz after the wagon has been called out as scummy isn’t “too obvious”?

Sorry, how does that make any sense?

[MiX]

I think Robz is town but I doubt there’s much scum in the five-vote pile-on because scum is scared to be that obvious.

Glooble’s gravitating toward the Robz wagon reaffirms my scumread on him.

I will most likely not be around at deadline, barring a bout of insomnia.

So let me get this straight- scum wouldn’t vote for Robz before people started questioning the Robz wagon because it would be “too obvious” but my voting for Robz after the wagon has been called out as scummy isn’t “too obvious”?

Sorry, how does that make any sense?

MUCH scum

[silverspawn]

prod request: mcmcsalot

Sent.

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 1.8

Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (3): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, jotheonah
pubby (5): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, MiX

Not Voting (1): Uncleeurope

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 8, 06:30 forum time. That is in 19h 26m.

[Robz888]

Great, so glad we are going to do a last minute lynch just because deadline is approaching, possibly with not enough people around, almost certainly hitting town... instead of the duel. You people really are the worst!

[Robz888]

Why is debatepro scummy? Because he joined a wagon? I don't really think joining my wagon was that scummy. We need to lynch someone, sheesh.

[MiX]

Great, so glad we are going to do a last minute lynch just because deadline is approaching, possibly with not enough people around, almost certainly hitting town... instead of the duel. You people really are the worst!

I have a great townread on both of the duel targets.

Wanna be the mislynch?

[jotheonah]

I think Robz is town but I doubt there’s much scum in the five-vote pile-on because scum is scared to be that obvious.

Glooble’s gravitating toward the Robz wagon reaffirms my scumread on him.

I will most likely not be around at deadline, barring a bout of insomnia.

So let me get this straight- scum wouldn’t vote for Robz before people started questioning the Robz wagon because it would be “too obvious” but my voting for Robz after the wagon has been called out as scummy isn’t “too obvious”?

Sorry, how does that make any sense?

Scum wouldn’t post four posts in a row with very little text other than “vote: Robz”. That’s different than what you did. Plus you were in the hot seat.

Robz, you baffle me. No one has articulated a real case on pubby, but you’re gung-ho about his lynch. But now you want a case for debatepro? What’s the difference? Is one of them your partner?

[EFHW]

Vote Count Previous

Glooble (3): jotheonah, MiX, A Drowned Kernel
Joseph (1): pubby
jotheonah (1): Glooble,
e (1): DatSwan
pubby (5): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302, Robz888, Awaclus, EFHW
Not Voting (3): Debatepro, 0Ix, e

Vote Count Current

Glooble (2): jotheonah, MiX
Robz (5): E, DatSwan, EFHW, Debatepro, Pubby
jotheonah (1): Glooble
pubby (4): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302, Robz888, Awaclus
Debatepro (1): ADK
Not Voting (1): 0IX

Adding in the most recent vc

Vote Count 1.8

Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (3): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, jotheonah
pubby (5): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, MiX

Not Voting (1): 0Ix

Now that I'm at a computer, I want to respond to DatSwan's conclusion that both Robz and pubby must be town here. I don't see it that way. I am the only one who switched from pubby to Robz, so it's not like they are interchangeable in many people's minds. And I had voted Robz previously, so it's not like I'm being all that opportunistic. Given their positions on each other's wagons, I do think pubby and Robz are unlikely to be partners, as I said before.

The quick building of the Robz wagon could be indication that he is town, if one or more of {EFHW, Debate, pubby} are scum. This makes pubby somewhat less likely to be town if Robz is town.

{mcmc, Joseph and Robz} have been steady on pubby's wagon for awhile now. He is among the easier mislynches, so Robz is somewhat less likely to be town if pubby is town.

Now Debate has risen up as a viable wagon, with {ADK, DatSwan and joth} on it. The emergence of a new wagon makes it more plausible that one of pubby-Robz is scum, with a partner in {ADK, Swan, joth}.

But these are all incremental shifts in likelihood. They could all be town, they could all be scum. Everyone on Debate's wagon could be scum (admittedly unlikely). It's fine if DatSwan has townreads on pubby and Robz, but I don't see how the VCA supports a conclusion that they must both be town. Did I miss something?

[EFHW]

Great, so glad we are going to do a last minute lynch just because deadline is approaching, possibly with not enough people around, almost certainly hitting town... instead of the duel. You people really are the worst!

How would the duel have been better? I wonder if you even really believe what you are saying.

[EFHW]

Would scum!Robz be this anti-town? Yes. Would town!Robz? Yes. So I'm voting him for being anti-town. pubby's vote on Robz was pretty opportunistic, so I might go back to him. I don't want to vote out of annoyance. But I also don't want this force of chaos muddling us up.

[MiX]

Would scum!Robz be this anti-town? Yes. Would town!Robz? Yes. So I'm voting him for being anti-town. pubby's vote on Robz was pretty opportunistic, so I might go back to him. I don't want to vote out of annoyance. But I also don't want this force of chaos muddling us up.

The problem I have with this is...you said Robz isn't scum with pubby right? But they're also not very likely to be town together, yes? This means we actually need to decide on which of them is scum, otherwise scum can just vote for the town one and we'll end up wondering why we let scum get away. This is similar to the duel problem: if we're undecisive, scum has full control over the duel outcome. Sure, maybe we get better reads...but what we want is dead scum in our hands.

So go reread Robz. Go reread pubby. Come back with answers. I'll do the same.

Oh, and I didn't finish my reread, but I don't think I'm lynching anyone other than these 2.

[Glooble]

Great, so glad we are going to do a last minute lynch just because deadline is approaching, possibly with not enough people around, almost certainly hitting town... instead of the duel. You people really are the worst!

We will have so much more information day 2 than if we'd had a duel. So much more. We're so much better off.

[EFHW]

Would scum!Robz be this anti-town? Yes. Would town!Robz? Yes. So I'm voting him for being anti-town. pubby's vote on Robz was pretty opportunistic, so I might go back to him. I don't want to vote out of annoyance. But I also don't want this force of chaos muddling us up.

The problem I have with this is...you said Robz isn't scum with pubby right? But they're also not very likely to be town together, yes? This means we actually need to decide on which of them is scum, otherwise scum can just vote for the town one and we'll end up wondering why we let scum get away. This is similar to the duel problem: if we're undecisive, scum has full control over the duel outcome. Sure, maybe we get better reads...but what we want is dead scum in our hands.

So go reread Robz. Go reread pubby. Come back with answers. I'll do the same.

Oh, and I didn't finish my reread, but I don't think I'm lynching anyone other than these 2.

I didn't say they couldn't both be town, just that it's not indicated that they are by the vca.

[Debatepro]

...
Now Debate has risen up as a viable wagon, with {ADK, DatSwan and joth} on it. The emergence of a new wagon makes it more plausible that one of pubby-Robz is scum, with a partner in {ADK, Swan, joth}.

But these are all incremental shifts in likelihood. They could all be town, they could all be scum. Everyone on Debate's wagon could be scum (admittedly unlikely). It's fine if DatSwan has townreads on pubby and Robz, but I don't see how the VCA supports a conclusion that they must both be town. Did I miss something?

What is your read on MiX? Between DatSwan's vote count summary and VC 1.8 he votes Debatepro (#518), Glooble (#530), Debatepro (#535), and Pubby (#562) so his movement doesn't show in the data.



(My post # assume "Show most recent posts at the top" profile setting, if you have the default setting in place it is -1)

[MiX]

...
Now Debate has risen up as a viable wagon, with {ADK, DatSwan and joth} on it. The emergence of a new wagon makes it more plausible that one of pubby-Robz is scum, with a partner in {ADK, Swan, joth}.

But these are all incremental shifts in likelihood. They could all be town, they could all be scum. Everyone on Debate's wagon could be scum (admittedly unlikely). It's fine if DatSwan has townreads on pubby and Robz, but I don't see how the VCA supports a conclusion that they must both be town. Did I miss something?

What is your read on MiX? Between DatSwan's vote count summary and VC 1.8 he votes Debatepro (#518), Glooble (#530), Debatepro (#535), and Pubby (#562) so his movement doesn't show in the data.



(My post # assume "Show most recent posts at the top" profile setting, if you have the default setting in place it is -1)

One day you will be scum, and you will rue the day you showed that pic.

[Debatepro]

One day you will be scum, and you will rue the day you showed that pic.

Uhg... my bad.

Vote#	Post#	By	For
42	508	e	Joseph
43	508	e	Robz
44	509	DatSwan	Robz
45	510	EFHW	Robz
46	511	Debatepro	Robz
47	512	Pubby	Robz
48	514	ADK	Debatepro
49	516	DatSwan	Debatepro
50	518	MiX	Debatepro
51	530	MiX	Glooble
52	535	MiX	Debatepro
53	540	Glooble	Robz
54	542	Awaclus	Pubby
55	548	Joth	Debatepro
56	562	MiX	Pubby

[A Drowned Kernel]

Would scum!Robz be this anti-town? Yes. Would town!Robz? Yes. So I'm voting him for being anti-town. pubby's vote on Robz was pretty opportunistic, so I might go back to him. I don't want to vote out of annoyance. But I also don't want this force of chaos muddling us up.

The problem I have with this is...you said Robz isn't scum with pubby right? But they're also not very likely to be town together, yes? This means we actually need to decide on which of them is scum, otherwise scum can just vote for the town one and we'll end up wondering why we let scum get away. This is similar to the duel problem: if we're undecisive, scum has full control over the duel outcome. Sure, maybe we get better reads...but what we want is dead scum in our hands.

So go reread Robz. Go reread pubby. Come back with answers. I'll do the same.

Oh, and I didn't finish my reread, but I don't think I'm lynching anyone other than these 2.

Between the two, I'd rather lynch pubby

vote: pubby

[jotheonah]

I’ll switch to pubby to get a lynch, but I’m not crazy about it.

I feel like town pubby doesn’t defend himself much which makes him a good mislynch go-to for scum.

[EFHW]

...
Now Debate has risen up as a viable wagon, with {ADK, DatSwan and joth} on it. The emergence of a new wagon makes it more plausible that one of pubby-Robz is scum, with a partner in {ADK, Swan, joth}.

But these are all incremental shifts in likelihood. They could all be town, they could all be scum. Everyone on Debate's wagon could be scum (admittedly unlikely). It's fine if DatSwan has townreads on pubby and Robz, but I don't see how the VCA supports a conclusion that they must both be town. Did I miss something?

What is your read on MiX? Between DatSwan's vote count summary and VC 1.8 he votes Debatepro (#518), Glooble (#530), Debatepro (#535), and Pubby (#562) so his movement doesn't show in the data.

I don't know about MiX. I usually have a stronger townread on him, but I don't really have a scum narrative on him, either. He's on the table.

[Swowl]

I think Robz is town but I doubt there’s much scum in the five-vote pile-on because scum is scared to be that obvious.

Glooble’s gravitating toward the Robz wagon reaffirms my scumread on him.

I will most likely not be around at deadline, barring a bout of insomnia.

So let me get this straight- scum wouldn’t vote for Robz before people started questioning the Robz wagon because it would be “too obvious” but my voting for Robz after the wagon has been called out as scummy isn’t “too obvious”?

Sorry, how does that make any sense?

Robz, you baffle me. No one has articulated a real case on pubby, but you’re gung-ho about his lynch. But now you want a case for debatepro? What’s the difference? Is one of them your partner?

I mean to tbf his potential need for a "solid skum read" on pubby has probably lessened in the last 24 hours. Which is kind of fair.

[Swowl]

Vote Count Previous

Glooble (3): jotheonah, MiX, A Drowned Kernel
Joseph (1): pubby
jotheonah (1): Glooble,
e (1): DatSwan
pubby (5): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302, Robz888, Awaclus, EFHW
Not Voting (3): Debatepro, 0Ix, e

Vote Count Current

Glooble (2): jotheonah, MiX
Robz (5): E, DatSwan, EFHW, Debatepro, Pubby
jotheonah (1): Glooble
pubby (4): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302, Robz888, Awaclus
Debatepro (1): ADK
Not Voting (1): 0IX

Adding in the most recent vc

Vote Count 1.8

Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (3): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, jotheonah
pubby (5): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, MiX

Not Voting (1): 0Ix

Now that I'm at a computer, I want to respond to DatSwan's conclusion that both Robz and pubby must be town here. I don't see it that way. I am the only one who switched from pubby to Robz, so it's not like they are interchangeable in many people's minds. And I had voted Robz previously, so it's not like I'm being all that opportunistic. Given their positions on each other's wagons, I do think pubby and Robz are unlikely to be partners, as I said before.

The quick building of the Robz wagon could be indication that he is town, if one or more of {EFHW, Debate, pubby} are scum. This makes pubby somewhat less likely to be town if Robz is town.

{mcmc, Joseph and Robz} have been steady on pubby's wagon for awhile now. He is among the easier mislynches, so Robz is somewhat less likely to be town if pubby is town.

Now Debate has risen up as a viable wagon, with {ADK, DatSwan and joth} on it. The emergence of a new wagon makes it more plausible that one of pubby-Robz is scum, with a partner in {ADK, Swan, joth}.

But these are all incremental shifts in likelihood. They could all be town, they could all be scum. Everyone on Debate's wagon could be scum (admittedly unlikely). It's fine if DatSwan has townreads on pubby and Robz, but I don't see how the VCA supports a conclusion that they must both be town. Did I miss something?

If I used the words "must be both be town", that was a mistake. My inference was that pubby's wagon staying up with the mass piling on the Robz wagon made meel feel it unlikely that Robz was skum. I already felt it unlikely Pubby was skum.

EFHW has a good point about something I want to read more into before commenting on though. Be back in like 2 hours.

[Robz888]

EFHW is infuriating me, which likely points to her being town.

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 1.9

Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (2): DatSwan, jotheonah
pubby (6): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, MiX, A Drowned Kernel

Not Voting (1): Uncleeurope

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 8, 06:30 forum time. That is in 14h 33m.

[jotheonah]

*sigh* fine

vote: pubby

That’s L-1

[pubby]

Probably last post before I die. I'm gonna flip town, robz is gonna flip town. EFHW is JK and scum is Joseph, Awaclus, Glooble. 

[Awaclus]

Probably last post before I die. I'm gonna flip town, robz is gonna flip town. EFHW is JK and scum is Joseph, Awaclus, Glooble. 

Well, that isn't true.

[jotheonah]

Actually I think vote: Robz has a better chance of hitting scum. Robz, maybe if you answer my question I’ll move my vote.

[MiX]

Probably last post before I die. I'm gonna flip town, robz is gonna flip town. EFHW is JK and scum is Joseph, Awaclus, Glooble. 

How about things that actually help us lynch someone else?

I'm going full reread mode, don't hammer in the next 90 minutes please.

[MiX]

Vote: Joseph, potential lynches are pubby/Robz/Joseph/Glooble in order of likelyness.

I'll reread all of their posts and come back with something maybe.

[silverspawn]

Uncleeurope replaces 0lx, effective immediately.

I've never gotten around to teaching my program to handle replacements, so I'll edit past votecounts to include him instead of 0lx.

[MiX]

Uuuuh. Hello Uncle. Sadly we're not partners, bah.

Have you been reading the game?

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 1.10

Robz888 (6): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble, jotheonah
Debatepro (1): DatSwan
Joseph2302 (1): MiX
pubby (5): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel

Not Voting (1): Uncleeurope

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 8, 06:30 forum time. That is in 13h 37m.

[Uncleeurope]

Uuuuh. Hello Uncle. Sadly we're not partners, bah.

Have you been reading the game?

We aren’t partners?

Vote: MiX

I have been doin aggressive skimming, but not with the perspective of actually trying to solve anything.

I feel like lately I have been trying to avoid playing games, then inevitably seeing someone in a game need to be replaced. And then I just get the itch again to throw myself into the fray of aggressively defending my innocence one more.

Vote: e

[MiX]

I feel like lately I have been trying to avoid playing games, then inevitably seeing someone in a game need to be replaced. And then I just get the itch again to throw myself into the fray of aggressively defending my innocence one more.

Maybe you can just be our designated replacement for all games?

We're between pubby/Robz/Joseph/Glooble/Debatepro(maybe?), what's your opinion on these?

[MiX]

Also: what did you vote?

[Joseph2302]

Out of the lynch targets, Joseph is a bad option. And I'm not keen on Robz but that's because I'm pro dual, and still think dual would have been far more informative than the usual random wagons cropping up near deadline like usual and like here

PPE: 1

[Joseph2302]

And I'm actually leaning towards Debatepro

[Joseph2302]

But I think only wagons actually going to happen are Robz and pubby. Of the two, I prefer pubby

But I'd consider voting Debatepro too

[Joseph2302]

And we need a majority to lynch, right?

[MiX]

Vote: Debatepro, it can happen.

And we need a majority to lynch, right?

Seems like it. Is there plurality lynch this day?

[MiX]

Joseph, that's a lot (a LOT) of setup related posts and not a lot of reads. That reminds me of third-party you. How do you explain this?

Vote: Joseph, I lied, there's no way Debatepro's the lynch here...which is a bit sad.

[Uncleeurope]

Do the votes happen in Qt? If so it appears I didn’t vote at all.

I think I want pubby to die out of the people that are discussed the most. Although I don’t want him o die the most.

I think the way Glooble and joth sheepily leaving each other alone is odd, especially for joth.

I think e endorsing his own lynch is weird, and scummy.

In my skimming I must have missed why he doesn’t have a wagon.

[Swowl]

Do the votes happen in Qt? If so it appears I didn’t vote at all.

I think I want pubby to die out of the people that are discussed the most. Although I don’t want him o die the most.

I think the way Glooble and joth sheepily leaving each other alone is odd, especially for joth.

I think e endorsing his own lynch is weird, and scummy.

In my skimming I must have missed why he doesn’t have a wagon.

I am on the same page - but go and try to put a case together... it just ends at "E is skummy for the reasons you just mentioned". I can't find anything else so I dropped it.

[Swowl]

Vote: Debatepro, it can happen.

And we need a majority to lynch, right?

Seems like it. Is there plurality lynch this day?

no plurality today - only for duels.

[silverspawn]

Seems like it. Is there plurality lynch this day?

No; only duels have plurality lynch.

[Swowl]

Would scum!Robz be this anti-town? Yes. Would town!Robz? Yes. So I'm voting him for being anti-town. pubby's vote on Robz was pretty opportunistic, so I might go back to him. I don't want to vote out of annoyance. But I also don't want this force of chaos muddling us up.

Robz hates Day 1.
From playing with him in previous game as a skum buddy, he absolutely plays to his lack of content image when he is skum. However, the... how to I put this... *misguided* stance he has on duels is NAI.

To me this would be standard Day 1 Robz minus the gut feeling I have that there is something off.

[MiX]

Would scum!Robz be this anti-town? Yes. Would town!Robz? Yes. So I'm voting him for being anti-town. pubby's vote on Robz was pretty opportunistic, so I might go back to him. I don't want to vote out of annoyance. But I also don't want this force of chaos muddling us up.

Robz hates Day 1.
From playing with him in previous game as a skum buddy, he absolutely plays to his lack of content image when he is skum. However, the... how to I put this... *misguided* stance he has on duels is NAI.

To me this would be standard Day 1 Robz minus the gut feeling I have that there is something off.

Yep, just reread Robz, he's just null.

Vote: pubby, let's see what I find here...

[Swowl]

Probably last post before I die. I'm gonna flip town, robz is gonna flip town. EFHW is JK and scum is Joseph, Awaclus, Glooble. 

wait... why do you think Robz will flip Town?

How does this (you being the first and only person on Robz):

Vote Count 1.5

Glooble (2): jotheonah, MiX
Robz888 (1): pubby
jotheonah (3): Glooble, EFHW, A Drowned Kernel
e (1): DatSwan
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (2): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302

Not Voting (4): Debatepro, Uncleeurope, e, Robz888

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 8, 06:30 forum time. That is in 3 days and 19+ hours.

.... go to now where you are on the block, still on Robz, and think Robz is gonna be town?

Why were you on Robz?
Who do you think is skum if Robz is Town?

[Swowl]

Done my re reads.
- I am Pubby over Robz
- I prefer E over everyone
- I do not like Joth or Glooble
- I could go 2 other people but I don't even want to mention them and give skum a last minute scramble option.
- Eddie is off the table for me today based on their quick re read logic fell like 99% exactly in line with my thought process in the game.

I would really rather still lynch E because I just can't get over the voting yes thing and claiming it. If anyone is on board for that let me know?

Otherwise I will wait until I have to go to bed and vote Pubby.

I think Pubby = L-1 now?

[Swowl]

NVM Pubby is L-2

[MiX]

I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.

I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.

[Swowl]

Considerations:
- Pubby and Robz are on each other
- Joth and Glooble are BOTH on Robz
Gap
- MiX from a non vital vote landed on Pubby
- E is on Robz
- Eddie is non vital
Gap
- The not looked at players are pretty spread out today (unhelpful, but not their fault)


Frustrating.

[Uncleeurope]

I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.

I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.

What is his motivation for doing that as town?

[Swowl]

I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.

I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.

OK - weak is accepted.

take away why it is skummy, and tell me why he is towny.

[Swowl]

I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.

I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.

What is his motivation for doing that as town?

99% just went 99.9%

[MiX]

I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.

I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.

OK - weak is accepted.

take away why it is skummy, and tell me why he is towny.

Why are you forcing me to reread a townread when there's more important people to read? I'll do it but...

I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.

I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.

What is his motivation for doing that as town?

Random e things.

I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.

I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.

What is his motivation for doing that as town?

99% just went 99.9%

What is this, likelyhood e's scum?

[Uncleeurope]

I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.

I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.

What is his motivation for doing that as town?

99% just went 99.9%

I swear every time someone agrees with me it puts me on edge.

[MiX]

I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.

I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.

What is his motivation for doing that as town?

99% just went 99.9%

I swear every time someone agrees with me it puts me on edge.

When do you not think e's scummy?

[Swowl]

I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.

I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.

OK - weak is accepted.

take away why it is skummy, and tell me why he is towny.

Why are you forcing me to reread a townread when there's more important people to read? I'll do it but...

I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.

I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.

What is his motivation for doing that as town?

Random e things.

I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.

I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.

What is his motivation for doing that as town?

99% just went 99.9%

What is this, likelyhood e's scum?

not forcing, you don't need to give me quotes and shit, just a general summary is cool with me. Or if you know it not gonna happen just keep doing you and respond to everyone tomorrow. its all good.

99-99.9 was in reference to my previous post about me thinking eddie is town.

[Swowl]

I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.

I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.

What is his motivation for doing that as town?

99% just went 99.9%

I swear every time someone agrees with me it puts me on edge.

If it makes you feel better I said it many many times way before you were even in the game.

[Uncleeurope]

“Random e things” includes resigning yourself to killing exactly one player and hoping they are bad?

Or accepting the comforting release of death?

It is an anti-town play, and while that doesn’t always mean it is coming from scum, it is a hard mindset for me to see from a town POV.

[Uncleeurope]

I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.

I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.

What is his motivation for doing that as town?

99% just went 99.9%

I swear every time someone agrees with me it puts me on edge.

When do you not think e's scummy?

Just because I tunneled him in a game awhile back is no reason to assume it is universal.

Plus I was right, wasn’t I?

So to answer your question: When e is town.

[MiX]

“Random e things” includes resigning yourself to killing exactly one player and hoping they are bad?

Or accepting the comforting release of death?

It is an anti-town play, and while that doesn’t always mean it is coming from scum, it is a hard mindset for me to see from a town POV.

"Random e things" includes thinking the PR goes to whoever wins the duel. It includes thinking you can win a duel versus ADK D1. It includes...things that I should've written down. This is harder than it should be.

Can I say "while I was rereading him I kept assigning him town points because he was echoing my thought process and that felt towny"? Because, that.

[MiX]

And now I'm going to sleep for sanity reasons. I'll be here in deadline. See you in 9 hours!

[Swowl]

“Random e things” includes resigning yourself to killing exactly one player and hoping they are bad?

Or accepting the comforting release of death?

It is an anti-town play, and while that doesn’t always mean it is coming from scum, it is a hard mindset for me to see from a town POV.

"Random e things" includes thinking the PR goes to whoever wins the duel. It includes thinking you can win a duel versus ADK D1. It includes...things that I should've written down. This is harder than it should be.

Can I say "while I was rereading him I kept assigning him town points because he was echoing my thought process and that felt towny"? Because, that.

The last part is... well not sound, but I just made the same conceptual post about Eddie, so I get it.

The rest of it is nonsense. Everyone knew that the wagons pre-duel would be influenced by the duel.

Town thinks A is skummy vs B
Duel happens
Changes everything

Skum would factor that in. Town would assume they lose a duel to skum and vote no duel at better chances to finding skum.

[Swowl]

Vote: E

This is still by far my favorite option.

[2.71828.....]

Do the votes happen in Qt? If so it appears I didn’t vote at all.

I think I want pubby to die out of the people that are discussed the most. Although I don’t want him o die the most.

I think the way Glooble and joth sheepily leaving each other alone is odd, especially for joth.

I think e endorsing his own lynch is weird, and scummy.

In my skimming I must have missed why he doesn’t have a wagon.

Totally did not endorse my own lunch

[2.71828.....]

Autocorrect doesn't like the word lynch

[2.71828.....]

Also, deadline is in like 9 hours? I will maybe not be around, depending if the stretch of Autobahn I am on has good connection.

I will review again before getting on the road at least

[2.71828.....]

What is the current vote count,? L the vote count analysis is bogwash since we have literally zero flips. So vote count analysis is scewed by your own opinions.

So yeah. You vote count smallest people in D1 are ridiculous

[2.71828.....]

Also, damA, anyone have anything for me?

[Debatepro]

Also, damA, anyone have anything for me?

Do you think Robz and MiX could be a scum team?

[2.71828.....]

Also, damA, anyone have anything for me?

Do you think Robz and MiX could be a scum team?

[2.71828.....]

I think maybe? Yet?

[A Drowned Kernel]

I think I may have already said this but I think that fact that two alternate wagons to pubby (robz and debate) both got a lot of traction very quickly is a very good reason to lynch pubby

I'm still down to lynch joth or glooble but I'll keep my vote where it is for now

If there was someone who hasn't received a lot of attention yet that should maybe be considered I would pick swan

[EFHW]

I won't be on at deadline, so vote: pubby. L-1

[mcmcsalot]

I’m camping I’m the worst, I’ll catch up and try harder

[Uncleeurope]

After trying to formulate some more stuff, I have a thought. My basic understanding of how joth plays is focused on him tunneling hard. (I admit this has a lot to do with MiX, but still...)

That being said his passionless case on Glooble followed by the abandonment of that case strikes me the wrong way.

[jotheonah]

After trying to formulate some more stuff, I have a thought. My basic understanding of how joth plays is focused on him tunneling hard. (I admit this has a lot to do with MiX, but still...)

That being said his passionless case on Glooble followed by the abandonment of that case strikes me the wrong way.

Well some of us have a hard time with casual fratricide.

[Joseph2302]

Probably last post before I die. I'm gonna flip town, robz is gonna flip town. EFHW is JK and scum is Joseph, Awaclus, Glooble. 

Yep this isn't true. And trying to out the JK is seriously anti-town too. It's the only definite PR that we have
That alone means I won't be moving my vote

[Joseph2302]

I’m camping I’m the worst, I’ll catch up and try harder

Just vote pubby, and end the day

[Joseph2302]

Deadline is in about 3 hours, is anyone around?
I'm guessing all the Americans won't be, as it's night time there

[Joseph2302]

Point of note: if pubby does flip scum, then the post I quoted above could be budding Robz. It's possible that they're both scum and it doesn't matter which one we lynch

[2.71828.....]

Deadline is in about 3 hours, is anyone around?
I'm guessing all the Americans won't be, as it's night time there

I am here.

[2.71828.....]

And not much changed since last night.

[2.71828.....]

Vote Count 1.10

Robz888 (6): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble, jotheonah
Debatepro (1): DatSwan
Joseph2302 (1): MiX
pubby (5): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel

Not Voting (1): Uncleeurope

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 8, 06:30 forum time. That is in 13h 37m.

+EFHW and MiX on pubby

[2.71828.....]

Vote: pubby

[Glooble]

Bleh. Joseph’s right about that jk post being extremely anti-town, but I don’t think it’s actually scummy. There’s no traitor- if pubby thinks he knows who the jk is he can just yell scum in the QT tonight, or in twilight if he gets lynched. It looks more like careless, unengaged town to me.

I think Robz is much more likely scum, but he’s also a bigger loss if we’re wrong I suppose. I would vote e if that somehow happened.

I need to go back to sleep. I’ll set a 6:20 alarm so I can be on at deadline ( I already slept about five hours, and I can just go back to sleep again after Someone hammers.)

PPE: Never mind. Going to sleep I guess.

[Glooble]

I was typing that up while e voted. Grah. I don’t think it’s pubby. I would love to be wrong.

[silverspawn]

Final Vote Count Day 1

e (2): Uncleeurope, DatSwan
Robz888 (4): Debatepro, pubby, Glooble, jotheonah
pubby (8): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, MiX, EFHW, e

With 14 alive, it took 8 to lynch.

[silverspawn]

Flavor Post. This post is dedicated to the people who enjoy our post! Our goal is to promote the freshest possible post and show how much fun each post has been to share with loved ones and co-workers. Our favorite ones!

(You do not have permission to upload this, and will be banned if this happens)

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The Best of Reddit

[silverspawn]

pubby has been lynched. They were...

Dear Steve,
Thanks for the gym equipment.
The plane crashed.
That's all you need.
I have more questions for you....
Did that plane crash?
What was on board?
My family is still alive.
They never will.
I am grateful that I am not dead.
I just don't know what happened.
The plane crashed.
There was no plane.
It was a plane crashing.
The plane crashed.
I can't get that to stop.
Can you get that to stop?
No, I can't.
I am dead.
I can't have it. There is nothing on this plane to stop me. All I can do is watch the plane crash.
Everything will be right. I will go home.
I will not have to hear that word.
I am an angry woman. Angry for all the wrong reasons. Angry for everything.
I am not afraid. I am still alive.
I have been crying since yesterday. Everything is going to be OK. It's a miracle.
I am still breathing.
How to get

... a Vanilla Townie with no PRs.

Night 1 begins now and ends at September 9, 05:00 Forum Time.

[silverspawn]

"Can't even find r/craftbees," I murmured, frowning as I typed onto my phone. "What do you think?"

...

me?

"Yes," I said. "You. The mafia game M124. What do you think?"

Oh. well, I think that's all fine. No more questions. What's left is to figure out what I'm supposed to do. I've got five minutes. And I'm going down to the docks.

"What are you talking about?"

The dock was full of the smell of fish. The dockmaster was talking. I had no idea what he was talking about.

"I don't think you're making sense," the missile chimed in.

"Hey, look at me," he said, "I'm your captain. What do you think I am?"

My jaw was dropped.

"I think you're very rude," the dockmaster said. He made a fist in my direction, looking me up and down.

"But who is the docmaster?" I asked.

He is fear. Flavophobia. Mafophobia. The bane of any mafia game.

A mobster?

"You're the doctor," another dockmaster said. "So what do you think I am?"

"Shut up," I said, "I'm a journalist."

"The missile that knows knows that the game no longer knows where it is going," the missile declared. "You. Take the game to psych ward."

Advertisement Continue reading the main story

But I was supposed to have a grand legacy! I was to outlast mafia itself! This is not fair! Do you have to be mean? I am a girl with dreams. I am an actress with ambitions. I am a singer with dreams. I have dreams! I have dreams! Please let me be a star! Please, I beg you!

[silverspawn]

MiX has died in the night. They were a Vanilla Townie with no PRs.

One day, a leader of a global power will make the statement 'Mafia is boring! It's just pointless talking and arguing untill you pick someone to be removed from the game!' and will declare war on all Mafia games. There will be plenty of casualties, any IRL groups worldwide imprisoned or worse, sites banned...but f.ds will live on; although with the site down, and most of the game archives deleted and purged, a single game will stand the test of time: M124. For those who have been playing M124 with their families and friends while awaiting for the site to come back, the world has changed, as many people, such as myself, who used to play the game have joined the online community as we go down into chaos and madness.


The world may turn a different shade of black-and-white, but if you are a gamer, if you are a gamer who enjoys the experience of getting away with murder or murder-like behaviour, then you are going to want to play M124. The first group to finish it, win against all odds,

[silverspawn]

Phase 1 of day 2 starts now and ends at September 11, 05:00 Forum Time.

[Awaclus]

Vote: Glooble

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 2.1

Glooble (1): Awaclus

Not Voting (11): Uncleeurope, DatSwan, mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, A Drowned Kernel, EFHW, e, Debatepro, Glooble, jotheonah

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 2 ends on September 11, 05:00 forum time.

[EFHW]

Why Glooble?

[2.71828.....]

So are we going to duel today?

[Joseph2302]

So are we going to duel today?

Depends on who gets selected as potential duellers
Although I'm generally pro-duel still

[Joseph2302]

Because PRs are good, and I can't see how we can win a vanilla 10/3 game

[Awaclus]

Because PRs are good, and I can't see how we can win a vanilla 10/3 game

It isn't a vanilla 10/3 game.

[2.71828.....]

Because PRs are good, and I can't see how we can win a vanilla 10/3 game

It isn't a vanilla 10/3 game.

True, not vanilla. We do have a jk, which is nice but can't definitively catch scum or clear town. And there are only 12 alive, so 9-3

[2.71828.....]

Vote: Glooble

Vote: Awaclus

[Awaclus]

Vote: Glooble

Vote: Awaclus

Are you Glooble's scumbuddy?

[2.71828.....]

Vote: Glooble

Vote: Awaclus

Are you Glooble's scumbuddy?

No. I am voting for you because I don't like your reason for voting Glooble. It feels a scummy sort of opportunistic

[Awaclus]

No. I am voting for you because I don't like your reason for voting Glooble. It feels a scummy sort of opportunistic

Why would scum!me kill MiX if I wanted to lynch Glooble?

[Glooble]

No. I am voting for you because I don't like your reason for voting Glooble. It feels a scummy sort of opportunistic

Why would scum!me kill MiX if I wanted to lynch Glooble?

Are you kidding? Framing me is the best rationale I can think of for scum to NK MiX.

[Awaclus]

No. I am voting for you because I don't like your reason for voting Glooble. It feels a scummy sort of opportunistic

Why would scum!me kill MiX if I wanted to lynch Glooble?

Are you kidding? Framing me is the best rationale I can think of for scum to NK MiX.

A better rationale is to get rid of someone who might vote for one of their teammates.

[jotheonah]

Both flips are people I was pretty sure were town anyway, so I’m skeptical I’m going to get much from a re-read.

There was a lot of talk yesterday about Robz and pubby and if they could be partners. Was the conclusion that they probably were on the same team or probably were on opposite teams? I can’t remember.

[EFHW]

It was mostly just me. Opposite.

[EFHW]

Scratch that,  what I said was that weren't scum partners.

[Robz888]

Night result woulda been super great right now. Ah well, there's always tomorrow. DUEL!

[Robz888]

Final Vote Count Day 1

e (2): Uncleeurope, DatSwan
Robz888 (4): Debatepro, pubby, Glooble, jotheonah
pubby (8): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, MiX, EFHW, e

With 14 alive, it took 8 to lynch.

Let's look for scum on the pubby wagon.

I have a slight (though not strong) town read on mcmc, just because I think he'd be more active if he was coming back for his first game in a while and drew scum.

Joseph's pro-duel stance makes him read town to me. EFHW is fighting with me the way she usually does as town.

That leaves Awaclus, ADK, and E. Could see scum among any of those.

I guess if either ADK or E were scum, probably mafia woulda really wanted not to duel, right? So scum there seems perhaps more likely.

[jotheonah]

Final Vote Count Day 1

e (2): Uncleeurope, DatSwan
Robz888 (4): Debatepro, pubby, Glooble, jotheonah
pubby (8): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, MiX, EFHW, e

With 14 alive, it took 8 to lynch.

Let's look for scum on the pubby wagon.

I have a slight (though not strong) town read on mcmc, just because I think he'd be more active if he was coming back for his first game in a while and drew scum.

Joseph's pro-duel stance makes him read town to me. EFHW is fighting with me the way she usually does as town.

That leaves Awaclus, ADK, and E. Could see scum among any of those.

I guess if either ADK or E were scum, probably mafia woulda really wanted not to duel, right? So scum there seems perhaps more likely.

You forgot an important contributor to the pubby wagon...

[A Drowned Kernel]

So are we going to duel today?

If we get the right candidates, sure

[A Drowned Kernel]

Also, vote: e

[A Drowned Kernel]

No, scratch that, vote: glooble

[Robz888]

Final Vote Count Day 1

e (2): Uncleeurope, DatSwan
Robz888 (4): Debatepro, pubby, Glooble, jotheonah
pubby (8): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, MiX, EFHW, e

With 14 alive, it took 8 to lynch.

Let's look for scum on the pubby wagon.

I have a slight (though not strong) town read on mcmc, just because I think he'd be more active if he was coming back for his first game in a while and drew scum.

Joseph's pro-duel stance makes him read town to me. EFHW is fighting with me the way she usually does as town.

That leaves Awaclus, ADK, and E. Could see scum among any of those.

I guess if either ADK or E were scum, probably mafia woulda really wanted not to duel, right? So scum there seems perhaps more likely.

You forgot an important contributor to the pubby wagon...

This is not a useful comment. Obviously I am not going to list myself as one of the likelier scums on the pubby wagon, since I know I am not scum.

[jotheonah]

Final Vote Count Day 1

e (2): Uncleeurope, DatSwan
Robz888 (4): Debatepro, pubby, Glooble, jotheonah
pubby (8): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, MiX, EFHW, e

With 14 alive, it took 8 to lynch.

Let's look for scum on the pubby wagon.

I have a slight (though not strong) town read on mcmc, just because I think he'd be more active if he was coming back for his first game in a while and drew scum.

Joseph's pro-duel stance makes him read town to me. EFHW is fighting with me the way she usually does as town.

That leaves Awaclus, ADK, and E. Could see scum among any of those.

I guess if either ADK or E were scum, probably mafia woulda really wanted not to duel, right? So scum there seems perhaps more likely.

You forgot an important contributor to the pubby wagon...

This is not a useful comment. Obviously I am not going to list myself as one of the likelier scums on the pubby wagon, since I know I am not scum.

It's shady and hypocritical to say scum is on the pubby wagon without offering an explanation for your own role in the wagon, Robz. You were not just begrudgingly pro-pubby lynch, you were pretty enthusiastic about it, despite the fact that I asked you at least twice to back it up with some kind, any kind, of a case and you ignored me. So you can try and direct us to the rest of the pubby wagon, but I'm gonna go ahead and vote for the scummiest person on it until you give me a reason not to.

vote: Robz888

[jotheonah]

First, a reminder of Robz's wholehearted unexplained support of the pubby wagon:

We should lynch pubby and anyone waiting or waffling to drag this out is pathologically anti-town. That is all.

Second, a reminder of my many attempts to solicit an explanation:

I just iso'd pubby. ... what's the case there? He seems decently townie if a bit lurkish.

We should lynch pubby and anyone waiting or waffling to drag this out is pathologically anti-town. That is all.

I really did miss you Robz. I hope you're not scum.


How is the case on pubby not a pile of nothing?

Robz, you baffle me. No one has articulated a real case on pubby, but you’re gung-ho about his lynch. But now you want a case for debatepro? What’s the difference? Is one of them your partner?

Actually I think vote: Robz has a better chance of hitting scum. Robz, maybe if you answer my question I’ll move my vote.

[Joseph2302]

Because PRs are good, and I can't see how we can win a vanilla 10/3 game

It isn't a vanilla 10/3 game.

True, it's s an 11/3 game, now a 9/3 game with just 1 PR. unless we use duals

[A Drowned Kernel]

I honestly don't see the narrative for scum!robz playing the way he is, while that narrative that town! Robz is being lazy and waiting for prs to solve the game for us makes sense

[A Drowned Kernel]

Because PRs are good, and I can't see how we can win a vanilla 10/3 game

It isn't a vanilla 10/3 game.

True, it's s an 11/3 game, now a 9/3 game with just 1 PR. unless we use duals

We can use the duals without blindly voting yes every time

[jotheonah]

I honestly don't see the narrative for scum!robz playing the way he is, while that narrative that town! Robz is being lazy and waiting for prs to solve the game for us makes sense

I’m over that kind of reasoning. It gives scum a free pass to be scummy without even trying to hide it. I’d rather lose a few games lynching scummy townies then give people permission to ply badly as town and give themselves a smokescreen theme they’re scum. Honestly, why would scum!Robz bother trying to be towny if this is how people react when he’s scummy?

[A Drowned Kernel]

I honestly don't see the narrative for scum!robz playing the way he is, while that narrative that town! Robz is being lazy and waiting for prs to solve the game for us makes sense

I’m over that kind of reasoning. It gives scum a free pass to be scummy without even trying to hide it. I’d rather lose a few games lynching scummy townies then give people permission to ply badly as town and give themselves a smokescreen theme they’re scum. Honestly, why would scum!Robz bother trying to be towny if this is how people react when he’s scummy?

I mean he would have to be willing to gamble on people actually giving him that pass, which to be fair I think Robz is an experienced enough player to do, but to me it still seems less likely than "robz was playing a lazy day one"

[Joseph2302]

Because PRs are good, and I can't see how we can win a vanilla 10/3 game

It isn't a vanilla 10/3 game.

True, it's s an 11/3 game, now a 9/3 game with just 1 PR. unless we use duals

We can use the duals without blindly voting yes every time

Yes we can. But D1 you don't know much, and I still believe we would have got more information from it. And a PR

[Robz888]

Joth, I repeatedly—repeatedly!—explained why I wanted to lynch pubby: I had townier reads on the other wagons, and pubby was a person with votes. Was it a strong case? No. Barring extraordinary circumstances, i think it's damn near impossible to pinpoint scum on Day 1, and the longer the day drags on the more we get manipulated by scum. Not in all cases, if we have things to discuss—claims, the results of duels MAYBE—that can help. But when we're all just sitting around shooting in the dark, whatever, good cases are only mildly preferable to bad cases.

[Robz888]

And I've really had enough of this "Robz is anti-town" nonsense. You may disagree with it but I think I'm proposing strategies to eventually catch scum. Joth is voting for me, not because he really actually thinks I'm scum, but because I'm not playing the way he wants me to play. So I guess that makes him anti-town!

[Robz888]

I mean, vote for people who seem likelier to be scum than other people. That's my philosophy. Right now I think that's ADK, E, maybe Awaclus.

[jotheonah]

Ok, Robz, so answer me this: what is it that makes your vote for pubby for no reason townie but other votes for pubby with no reason scummy? Why look for scum on that wagon if you know there’s such an obvious reason for being on it as town?

[jotheonah]

Like you can admit that your day 1 strategy is “lynch whoever we can that I don’t have a townread on”, but you have to accept the consequences of that approach, which, among other things, makes the credibility of your on-wagon Hunt take a big hit.

[jotheonah]

Oh and just to be clear, I do think you’re scum.

[Glooble]

vote: A Drowned Kernel

[Glooble]

Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, Robz88.  The only three people who were on the pubby wagon, the little MiX wagon at the beginning of day one, and who at some point voted for me. I suppose if we count anyone who voted for pubby at any point, we'd need joth on this list too. Now, from my POV as someone who knows I am town, these are the four players who have voted for three confirmed townies. I realize this logic won't help anyone else until I flip, but that doesn't change the facts.

Anyway, ADK gets the vote over the other three because 1. this joth vs. Robz fight is really messing with my scumreads on both of them and 2. the duel got voted down, which does slightly increase the likelyhood of one of e/ ADK being scum. Also their position on the pubby wagon and the hedginess with which they delivered their votes don't look great.

[Awaclus]

Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, Robz88.  The only three people who were on the pubby wagon, the little MiX wagon at the beginning of day one, and who at some point voted for me. I suppose if we count anyone who voted for pubby at any point, we'd need joth on this list too. Now, from my POV as someone who knows I am town, these are the four players who have voted for three confirmed townies. I realize this logic won't help anyone else until I flip, but that doesn't change the facts.

Anyway, ADK gets the vote over the other three because 1. this joth vs. Robz fight is really messing with my scumreads on both of them and 2. the duel got voted down, which does slightly increase the likelyhood of one of e/ ADK being scum. Also their position on the pubby wagon and the hedginess with which they delivered their votes don't look great.

Why does killing MiX to frame you make any sense at all?

[Glooble]

Why does killing MiX to frame you make any sense at all?

If you're scum, and you see one town player with a lot of pressure on him, and another town player is pushing his case pretty hard, it makes a lot of sense to kill the player pushing the case. That way you can use the dead player's towniness to advance the case on the player who's under pressure.

[Glooble]

That way you can say "Why did MiX die? He must have been on to something with that Glooble case."

[2.71828.....]

The whole idea around framing someone as scum is a bunch of WIFOM that doesn't actually contribute a ton to catching scum in my opinion.

Every flip does give us information to find scum, but the standard immediate jumping on an easy wagon is just scummy.

More people should vote Awaclus

[Awaclus]

Why does killing MiX to frame you make any sense at all?

If you're scum, and you see one town player with a lot of pressure on him, and another town player is pushing his case pretty hard, it makes a lot of sense to kill the player pushing the case. That way you can use the dead player's towniness to advance the case on the player who's under pressure.

That doesn't make any sense for multiple reasons:

• Scum in general is not in any hurry to lynch people who already have a lot of pressure on them. Town!you were already a viable mislynch target, and it would have been better value to frame someone who wasn't one.
• MiX himself was another very viable mislynch target. It doesn't make sense to remove a potential mislynch from the player pool just to put some extra pressure on another one.
• Obviously getting town!your mislynch through would have been easier with MiX's help.
• If the point was to frame town!you, scum could have killed anyone else who expressed a scum read on you instead of killing the most antitown one.

[Awaclus]

5. the f.ds meta is to not pay any attention to night kills.

[Glooble]

I just completely disagree that MiX was a viable mislynch target. The only player scumreading MiX at the end of the day was you.

[Debatepro]

Some data I've been pondering.

Lynch#	PubbyVotes	-	ON/OFF	-	NeverON	-	MultipleVotes
	MiX		Joth		DatSwan		MiX
1	MCMC		Glooble		Debatepro		Joth
	Joth		Joseph		Uncleeurope		Awaclus
	Glooble
	Joseph
2	Robz
	Awaclus
	EFHW
3	Joseph
4	Awaclus
	MiX
5	ADK
	Joth
6	MiX
7	EFHW
8	e

[Debatepro]

Overview of MiX votes  w/ reasons

Vote#	Post#	---By---	----For----	Notes
4	100	MiX	Glooble	RSV: No reason (NR)
10	132	MiX	Pubby	RSV: NR
21	271	MiX	e	270 voted no duel bc didn't want to lynch e by default
23	305	MiX	Joseph	Your ADK duel reasoning is shite
24	325	MiX	Awaclus	Awaclus reasoning only makes sense later in game
26	342	MiX	Debatepro	NR: Awaclus as null NIA
30	382	MiX	Glooble	Will sheep Joth on Glooble
50	518	MiX	Debatepro	Vote Debatepro for sheeping
51	530	MiX	Glooble	Why did glooble think PR couldn't use them at any other night
52	535	MiX	Debatepro	NR
56	562	MiX	Pubby	Don't want to fight w/ debatepro, NR pubby
60	596	MiX	Joseph	Potential lynches pubby/Robz/Joseph/Glooble will reread [Moves off Pubby L2]
63	607	MiX	Debatepro	Lets vote here, NR.
64	608	MiX	Joseph	Joseph has setup related posts.
65	614	MiX	Pubby	Agree with DS bout Robz, Robz null, lets try Pubby

[Awaclus]

I just completely disagree that MiX was a viable mislynch target.

I guess that's why you killed him.

[jotheonah]

I just completely disagree that MiX was a viable mislynch target. The only player scumreading MiX at the end of the day was you.

I'm with Glooble on this. I haven't weighed in on why MiX was killed because I just thought it was obvious he was super townie.

The fact that he was the loan supporter of my Glooble lynch was probably just gravy when Glooble did the kill.

[jotheonah]

Some data I've been pondering.

Lynch#	PubbyVotes	-	ON/OFF	-	NeverON	-	MultipleVotes
	MiX		Joth		DatSwan		MiX
1	MCMC		Glooble		Debatepro		Joth
	Joth		Joseph		Uncleeurope		Awaclus
	Glooble
	Joseph
2	Robz
	Awaclus
	EFHW
3	Joseph
4	Awaclus
	MiX
5	ADK
	Joth
6	MiX
7	EFHW
8	e

I have no idea what this means.

[Debatepro]

Some data I've been pondering.

<insert table>

I have no idea what this means.

My bad.

Lynch#: Votes resulting in pubby lynch
PubbyVotes: All votes for pubby
ON/OFF: Those players that were on at one point and then jumped off
NeverOn: Never voted for pubby
MultipleVote: Voted for pubby more than once

[2.71828.....]

Some data I've been pondering.

Lynch#	PubbyVotes	-	ON/OFF	-	NeverON	-	MultipleVotes
	MiX		Joth		DatSwan		MiX
1	MCMC		Glooble		Debatepro		Joth
	Joth		Joseph		Uncleeurope		Awaclus
	Glooble
	Joseph
2	Robz
	Awaclus
	EFHW
3	Joseph
4	Awaclus
	MiX
5	ADK
	Joth
6	MiX
7	EFHW
8	e

I have no idea what this means.

I want to make a joke about big data solving all the world's problems (even find scum to lynch!) here.

[2.71828.....]

So what is your analysis of that data?

Never on are more likely town?
Multiple votes more likely scum?

Data is useless without some sort of analysis

[Robz888]

Ok, Robz, so answer me this: what is it that makes your vote for pubby for no reason townie but other votes for pubby with no reason scummy? Why look for scum on that wagon if you know there’s such an obvious reason for being on it as town?

You are willfully misunderstanding me! You ask "what is it that makes your vote for pubby for no reason townie but other votes for pubby with no reason scummy?" I did not say my vote was townie and there's scummy. I do not think a vote for pubby was scummy. But today, we know pubby is town, and there's probably at least one scum on his wagon, because that's usually how it works. So I was trying to decide which people on the pubby wagon are scummiest, not because voting for pubby was scummy, but just of their own accord.

[Debatepro]

So what is your analysis of that data? Never on are more likely town? Multiple votes more likely scum? Data is useless without some sort of analysis

The main point is to make it easier for team town to do analysis. If everyone on team town doesn't have to gather and collate the data, then they can spend more time on analysis. It's a time per task savings.

[2.71828.....]

So what is your analysis of that data? Never on are more likely town? Multiple votes more likely scum? Data is useless without some sort of analysis

The main point is to make it easier for team town to do analysis. If everyone on team town doesn't have to gather and collate the data, then they can spend more time on analysis. It's a time per task savings.

So for you, as an alleged member of town, done any analysis on it? I am interested in your thoughts

[jotheonah]

1. this joth vs. Robz fight is really messing with my scumreads on both of them

I hate to say it, but I'm pretty sure Robz and I could absolutely fake this fight as scum partners. It would be a lot more fun if that were what was happening.

[A Drowned Kernel]

The whole idea around framing someone as scum is a bunch of WIFOM that doesn't actually contribute a ton to catching scum in my opinion.

Every flip does give us information to find scum, but the standard immediate jumping on an easy wagon is just scummy.

More people should vote Awaclus

I have a gut townread on awaclus

[Joseph2302]

The whole idea around framing someone as scum is a bunch of WIFOM that doesn't actually contribute a ton to catching scum in my opinion.

Every flip does give us information to find scum, but the standard immediate jumping on an easy wagon is just scummy.

More people should vote Awaclus

I have a gut townread on awaclus

Weirdly, so do I right now
He seems more engaged and helpful than usual

[Joseph2302]

It's weirdly because he's one of the people that I typically find scummy. But not this game

[Joseph2302]

Overview of MiX votes  w/ reasons

Vote#	Post#	---By---	----For----	Notes
4	100	MiX	Glooble	RSV: No reason (NR)
10	132	MiX	Pubby	RSV: NR
21	271	MiX	e	270 voted no duel bc didn't want to lynch e by default
23	305	MiX	Joseph	Your ADK duel reasoning is shite
24	325	MiX	Awaclus	Awaclus reasoning only makes sense later in game
26	342	MiX	Debatepro	NR: Awaclus as null NIA
30	382	MiX	Glooble	Will sheep Joth on Glooble
50	518	MiX	Debatepro	Vote Debatepro for sheeping
51	530	MiX	Glooble	Why did glooble think PR couldn't use them at any other night
52	535	MiX	Debatepro	NR
56	562	MiX	Pubby	Don't want to fight w/ debatepro, NR pubby
60	596	MiX	Joseph	Potential lynches pubby/Robz/Joseph/Glooble will reread [Moves off Pubby L2]
63	607	MiX	Debatepro	Lets vote here, NR.
64	608	MiX	Joseph	Joseph has setup related posts.
65	614	MiX	Pubby	Agree with DS bout Robz, Robz null, lets try Pubby

So 4 people there who they voted for multiple times: me, Pubby, Debatepro and Glooble

Of which, 2 (Pubby and I) are definitely town.

So if we trust MiX reads, Debatepro and Glooble would seem slightly scummier

[Joseph2302]

Based on that, Vote: Glooble

[Glooble]

Please update my previous list to include Joseph.

[Debatepro]

... I am interested in your thoughts

Less than 24hrs before the deadline there are 3 wagons and two of them are town. Robz (5), Pubby (4), and Debatepro (3). 

Post#	By	For	TimeStamp
548	Joth	Debatepro	Sep-07-19 07:53:59 am
562	MiX	Pubby	Sep-07-19 09:21:12 am
584	ADK	Pubby	Sep-07-19 01:25:12 pm
591	Joth	Pubby	Sep-07-19 03:00:56 pm
594	Joth	Robz	Sep-07-19 03:20:01 pm
596	MiX	Joseph	Sep-07-19 03:33:51 pm
600	Eddie	MiX	Sep-07-19 04:15:47 pm
600	Eddie	e	Sep-07-19 04:15:47 pm
607	MiX	Debatepro	Sep-07-19 05:35:17 pm
608	MiX	Joseph	Sep-07-19 05:43:19 pm
614	MiX	Pubby	Sep-07-19 06:10:06 pm
633	DatSwan	e	Sep-07-19 06:43:50 pm
643	EFHW	Pubby	Sep-07-19 08:32:30 pm
654	e	Pubby	Sep-07-19 02:17:11 am

This is the pool I'm scrutinizing more closely. Joth's movement raises an eyebrow. ADK and Datswan both voted for pubby and me. Being wrong doesn't make someone scum, but I certainly have to consider the possibility.

(Note: Awaclus's vote at 542 is a actually a restating of his vote (483) from Sep-05-19 08:21:17 pm, but ss's program didn't log bc of emoji)

[A Drowned Kernel]

Overview of MiX votes  w/ reasons

Vote#	Post#	---By---	----For----	Notes
4	100	MiX	Glooble	RSV: No reason (NR)
10	132	MiX	Pubby	RSV: NR
21	271	MiX	e	270 voted no duel bc didn't want to lynch e by default
23	305	MiX	Joseph	Your ADK duel reasoning is shite
24	325	MiX	Awaclus	Awaclus reasoning only makes sense later in game
26	342	MiX	Debatepro	NR: Awaclus as null NIA
30	382	MiX	Glooble	Will sheep Joth on Glooble
50	518	MiX	Debatepro	Vote Debatepro for sheeping
51	530	MiX	Glooble	Why did glooble think PR couldn't use them at any other night
52	535	MiX	Debatepro	NR
56	562	MiX	Pubby	Don't want to fight w/ debatepro, NR pubby
60	596	MiX	Joseph	Potential lynches pubby/Robz/Joseph/Glooble will reread [Moves off Pubby L2]
63	607	MiX	Debatepro	Lets vote here, NR.
64	608	MiX	Joseph	Joseph has setup related posts.
65	614	MiX	Pubby	Agree with DS bout Robz, Robz null, lets try Pubby

So 4 people there who they voted for multiple times: me, Pubby, Debatepro and Glooble

Of which, 2 (Pubby and I) are definitely town.

So if we trust MiX reads, Debatepro and Glooble would seem slightly scummier

MiX was town but that's no reason we should trust his reads

[Awaclus]

MiX was town but that's no reason we should trust his reads

He got nightkilled and that's a reason we should trust his reads.

[A Drowned Kernel]

MiX was town but that's no reason we should trust his reads

He got nightkilled and that's a reason we should trust his reads.

Eh, it's just as likely that he was killed because he was towny

[Glooble]

He was killed because scum wanted ya’ll to trust his reads, because his reads were wrong. He had pubby wrong didn’t he?

[EFHW]

Sorry, busy day today. I'll post more tomorrow.

[Swowl]

So what is your analysis of that data?

Never on are more likely town?
Multiple votes more likely scum?

Data is useless without some sort of analysis

incorrect. data is always useful.

analysis is can be manipulated, but data is always useful.

[Swowl]

unless anyone thinks we are getting a lynch off before the duel they should keep their reads to a minimum for now imo.

that hurt my soul to say, but I stand by it.

[Joseph2302]

Overview of MiX votes  w/ reasons

Vote#	Post#	---By---	----For----	Notes
4	100	MiX	Glooble	RSV: No reason (NR)
10	132	MiX	Pubby	RSV: NR
21	271	MiX	e	270 voted no duel bc didn't want to lynch e by default
23	305	MiX	Joseph	Your ADK duel reasoning is shite
24	325	MiX	Awaclus	Awaclus reasoning only makes sense later in game
26	342	MiX	Debatepro	NR: Awaclus as null NIA
30	382	MiX	Glooble	Will sheep Joth on Glooble
50	518	MiX	Debatepro	Vote Debatepro for sheeping
51	530	MiX	Glooble	Why did glooble think PR couldn't use them at any other night
52	535	MiX	Debatepro	NR
56	562	MiX	Pubby	Don't want to fight w/ debatepro, NR pubby
60	596	MiX	Joseph	Potential lynches pubby/Robz/Joseph/Glooble will reread [Moves off Pubby L2]
63	607	MiX	Debatepro	Lets vote here, NR.
64	608	MiX	Joseph	Joseph has setup related posts.
65	614	MiX	Pubby	Agree with DS bout Robz, Robz null, lets try Pubby

So 4 people there who they voted for multiple times: me, Pubby, Debatepro and Glooble

Of which, 2 (Pubby and I) are definitely town.

So if we trust MiX reads, Debatepro and Glooble would seem slightly scummier

MiX was town but that's no reason we should trust his reads

Trusting an IC is better than trusting people who could be scum
But I agree we shouldn't base everything off of it

[Uncleeurope]

Vote: Awaclus

I dunno why, but I feel like either Awaclus or Glooble is evil, and Awaclus has less votes.

[jotheonah]

I would love to hear reasons why people think that Robz/Glooble either is or isn't a possible scum team.

[EFHW]

unless anyone thinks we are getting a lynch off before the duel they should keep their reads to a minimum for now imo.

that hurt my soul to say, but I stand by it.

Why do you say this?

[A Drowned Kernel]

unless anyone thinks we are getting a lynch off before the duel they should keep their reads to a minimum for now imo.

that hurt my soul to say, but I stand by it.

Fair point

[Debatepro]

Overview of MiX votes  w/ reasons

Vote#	Post#	---By---	----For----	Notes
10	132	MiX	Pubby	RSV: NR
56	562	MiX	Pubby	Don't want to fight w/ debatepro, NR pubby
65	614	MiX	Pubby	Agree with DS bout Robz, Robz null, lets try Pubby

So 4 people there who they voted for multiple times: me, Pubby, Debatepro and Glooble. Of which, 2 (Pubby and I) are definitely town. So if we trust MiX reads, Debatepro and Glooble would seem slightly scummier

MiX was town but that's no reason we should trust his reads

Trusting an IC is better than trusting people who could be scum. But I agree we shouldn't base everything off of it.

MiX votes Pubby 3 times, I think the quality of his reads are not the reason he was killed. I also don't think he was the towniest of players and it seemed like he was playing more cautiously than previous games.

This leaves just two theories I am able to hypothesize based on my limited experience:
1. To direct attention at the people he was tunneling (glooble/debatepro). I believe Joseph (725) and Awaclus (730) are making this argument. 
2. Scum thought he was the JK

If it's #1, who has an interest in indirectly killing glooble? Debatepro is a scrub that sticks his foot in his mouth, easy mislynch target. I was a little surprised to see Awaclus make this argument on reputation alone. I gave joseph a limited pass bc I've played with him before and this seems inline with something even town joseph would say.

[Glooble]

If it's #1, who has an interest in indirectly killing glooble?

Maybe someone who is afraid of Glooble's ability to read him? Maybe someone who's weak case on me day one failed to stick?

[jotheonah]

If it's #1, who has an interest in indirectly killing glooble?

Maybe someone who is afraid of Glooble's ability to read him? Maybe someone who's weak case on me day one failed to stick?

Why wouldn't I just kill you? Come on. MiX is hands down the last person I'd kill N1 if I were scum. He was the only one sheeping my reads!

[Glooble]

I just completely disagree that MiX was a viable mislynch target. The only player scumreading MiX at the end of the day was you.

I'm with Glooble on this. I haven't weighed in on why MiX was killed because I just thought it was obvious he was super townie.

The fact that he was the loan supporter of my Glooble lynch was probably just gravy when Glooble did the kill.

If it's #1, who has an interest in indirectly killing glooble?

Maybe someone who is afraid of Glooble's ability to read him? Maybe someone who's weak case on me day one failed to stick?

Why wouldn't I just kill you? Come on. MiX is hands down the last person I'd kill N1 if I were scum. He was the only one sheeping my reads!

Interesting.

[Glooble]

Anyway, reason 1 that you wouldn't just kill me: I'm a mislynch waiting to happen. reason 2: It would have put a lot of suspicion on you.

[jotheonah]

Interesting.

In the first quote I'm talking about what town me thinks about what actual non-me scum did. In the second I'm talking about what a hypothetical scum-me would have done. There's no contradiction there. MiX would have been a bad kill for me, specifically, to make as scum.

[jotheonah]

Anyway, reason 1 that you wouldn't just kill me: I'm a mislynch waiting to happen. reason 2: It would have put a lot of suspicion on you.

Sure you're a lynch waiting to happen now, but as of the end of Day 1 you were actually very hard to lynch! I know, I tried. I'll give you reason 2 though.

[Robz888]

If it's #1, who has an interest in indirectly killing glooble?

Maybe someone who is afraid of Glooble's ability to read him? Maybe someone who's weak case on me day one failed to stick?

Why wouldn't I just kill you? Come on. MiX is hands down the last person I'd kill N1 if I were scum. He was the only one sheeping my reads!

I think, if Joth were scum, he would exercise more caution than just blurting this out, yes?

[2.71828.....]

unless anyone thinks we are getting a lynch off before the duel they should keep their reads to a minimum for now imo.

that hurt my soul to say, but I stand by it.

I disagree with this. Stifling discussion is anti-town. We want people to make the most informed decision possible when faced with the duel. If everyone generally views certain people as town or scum, then they appear in the duel, it is a fairly big data point once we know the success/failure of the duel.

[2.71828.....]

If it's #1, who has an interest in indirectly killing glooble?

Maybe someone who is afraid of Glooble's ability to read him? Maybe someone who's weak case on me day one failed to stick?

Why wouldn't I just kill you? Come on. MiX is hands down the last person I'd kill N1 if I were scum. He was the only one sheeping my reads!

I think, if Joth were scum, he would exercise more caution than just blurting this out, yes?

There are always WIFOM arguments, but yeah.

[2.71828.....]

unless anyone thinks we are getting a lynch off before the duel they should keep their reads to a minimum for now imo.

that hurt my soul to say, but I stand by it.

I disagree with this. Stifling discussion is anti-town. We want people to make the most informed decision possible when faced with the duel. If everyone generally views certain people as town or scum, then they appear in the duel, it is a fairly big data point once we know the success/failure of the duel.

But also, the most informed decision includes weighing the huge benefits of getting a PR out of the duel

[Joseph2302]

unless anyone thinks we are getting a lynch off before the duel they should keep their reads to a minimum for now imo.

that hurt my soul to say, but I stand by it.

I disagree with this. Stifling discussion is anti-town. We want people to make the most informed decision possible when faced with the duel. If everyone generally views certain people as town or scum, then they appear in the duel, it is a fairly big data point once we know the success/failure of the duel.

True but on the other hand, the more we say, the more scum gets ideas what we might vote, and thus what's their safest vote claim

[Joseph2302]

unless anyone thinks we are getting a lynch off before the duel they should keep their reads to a minimum for now imo.

that hurt my soul to say, but I stand by it.

I disagree with this. Stifling discussion is anti-town. We want people to make the most informed decision possible when faced with the duel. If everyone generally views certain people as town or scum, then they appear in the duel, it is a fairly big data point once we know the success/failure of the duel.

But also, the most informed decision includes weighing the huge benefits of getting a PR out of the duel

Agree with this though. Duels are good

[jotheonah]

How long do we have until duel time?

[2.71828.....]

Phase 1 of day 2 starts now and ends at September 11, 05:00 Forum Time.

[Joseph2302]

So just over 16 hours

[A Drowned Kernel]

unless anyone thinks we are getting a lynch off before the duel they should keep their reads to a minimum for now imo.

that hurt my soul to say, but I stand by it.

I disagree with this. Stifling discussion is anti-town. We want people to make the most informed decision possible when faced with the duel. If everyone generally views certain people as town or scum, then they appear in the duel, it is a fairly big data point once we know the success/failure of the duel.

But also, the most informed decision includes weighing the huge benefits of getting a PR out of the duel

I think "huge" is an overstatement

[A Drowned Kernel]

The argument I'm considering is that in the event that the proposed duel ends up being town vs scum, we want scum to have the least clear idea of their chances of winning. We can always have discussion after the vote

[Swowl]

The argument I'm considering is that in the event that the proposed duel ends up being town vs scum, we want scum to have the least clear idea of their chances of winning. We can always have discussion after the vote

This ^^
Is what i was going for

[EFHW]

The argument I'm considering is that in the event that the proposed duel ends up being town vs scum, we want scum to have the least clear idea of their chances of winning. We can always have discussion after the vote

This ^^
Is what i was going for

Ok, that seems fine.

[EFHW]

The argument I'm considering is that in the event that the proposed duel ends up being town vs scum, we want scum to have the least clear idea of their chances of winning. We can always have discussion after the vote

This ^^
Is what i was going for

Ok, that seems fine.

I see e was concerned about stifling conversation. That is a consideration, but we want scum to be in the duel. So anything that increases that likelihood seems like a decent idea.

[Debatepro]

I’m camping I’m the worst, I’ll catch up and try harder

Still camping?

[Robz888]

The argument I'm considering is that in the event that the proposed duel ends up being town vs scum, we want scum to have the least clear idea of their chances of winning. We can always have discussion after the vote

We get around this if we all just pledge to vote for the duel, and anyone who doesn't is considered automatically scum.

[Glooble]

The argument I'm considering is that in the event that the proposed duel ends up being town vs scum, we want scum to have the least clear idea of their chances of winning. We can always have discussion after the vote

We get around this if we all just pledge to vote for the duel, and anyone who doesn't is considered automatically scum.

It's so tempting isn't it? Anyone wanna redo that day 1 math accounting for fewer scum?

[Glooble]

I'm getting a 54.5% chance of town vs. town (9/12 for the first selection, 8/11 for the second.) Feel free to double check me.

So pledging to vote for the duel no matter what still seems like a risky plan.

The power role is slightly more useful now, but its still not a slam dunk.

[jotheonah]

The argument I'm considering is that in the event that the proposed duel ends up being town vs scum, we want scum to have the least clear idea of their chances of winning. We can always have discussion after the vote

We get around this if we all just pledge to vote for the duel, and anyone who doesn't is considered automatically scum.

It's so tempting isn't it? Anyone wanna redo that day 1 math accounting for fewer scum?

you mean for fewer town, right?

[jotheonah]

The argument I'm considering is that in the event that the proposed duel ends up being town vs scum, we want scum to have the least clear idea of their chances of winning. We can always have discussion after the vote

We get around this if we all just pledge to vote for the duel, and anyone who doesn't is considered automatically scum.

Scum will still vote how they want and just lie. And if the duel fails, it will only tell us that we failed to get enough town on board with the plan.

[Glooble]

The argument I'm considering is that in the event that the proposed duel ends up being town vs scum, we want scum to have the least clear idea of their chances of winning. We can always have discussion after the vote

We get around this if we all just pledge to vote for the duel, and anyone who doesn't is considered automatically scum.

It's so tempting isn't it? Anyone wanna redo that day 1 math accounting for fewer scum?

you mean for fewer town, right?

Yes.

[Swowl]

the math is slightly less relevant now that Day 1 is past and we have some flips. or I mean... not less relevant, but the important factor is simply "how likely is skum to be in the duel?"

Which is slightly over 50% if my head math is correct.

[A Drowned Kernel]

the math is slightly less relevant now that Day 1 is past and we have some flips. or I mean... not less relevant, but the important factor is simply "how likely is skum to be in the duel?"

Which is slightly over 50% if my head math is correct.

The math is completely irrelevant because now people should actually have reads to base their votes on

[jotheonah]

That’s silly. Reads should cause you to adjust your priors, but they certainly don’t make the math irrelevant.

[mcmcsalot]

Okay I am caught up.

I don’t think we should force any duel vote but I do think the pr is even more important and there is a greater chance pair contains at least one scum read.

[mcmcsalot]

Joth v glooble looks pretty town v town. But I’m also not sold on either of the cases.

[Robz888]

Joth v glooble looks pretty town v town. But I’m also not sold on either of the cases.

I could also see, in some weird way, Joth v Glooble as scum v scum. It would explain some of the "this does not make sense"-ness of it. But yeah most likely they are just both town.

[Swowl]

Throwing this out there in regards to the theory of making people vote mandatory, but also being able to isolate if someone lies better than just "someone lied". No idea if it actually can be used as utility or not... someone with a less tired brain should read it over.

Here is the idea:

1) We group players randomly based on the amount of votes YES needed to get a duel to go. Since ties are YES, and we have 12, today that would be groups of 6.

2) We then take something arbitrary, such as the sign up list, to assign an order for the grouping process.

3) With the sign up list being used, it would be something like this:
1 - votes YES to 2-7
2 - votes YES to 3-8
3 - votes YES to 4-9
4 - votes YES to 5-10
5 - votes YES to 6-11
6 - votes YES to 7-12
7 - votes YES to 8-1
8 - votes YES to 9-2
9 - votes YES to 10-3
10 - votes YES to 11-4
11 - votes YES to 12-5
12 - votes YES to 1-6


4) Then I guess it would have to be something like - "Only vote yes if you are supposed to, if your dueled player is the lowest numeral"
   - So if you are supposed to vote yes for Player 6, but vote no for Player 4... you would vote no. This just ensures the grouping is kept to a minimum.

As I mentioned, it doesn't really have a lot of utility purpose. It pretty much makes all reads obsolete because we would have to agree to it prior to getting to the duel. All it really does is make sure the duel happens, or if it doesn't, it gives us a smaller pool of players to look at. This is to say:

- Player 1 and Player 7 are put at bat.
- Players 7-12 should vote YES, since 1 is the lowest numeral and on their list.
- All other players, including the players who are YES votes for Player 7, would vote NO.

At the end we either gain the duel (which could be good) or we gain the info that someone did not follow the rules... but only on the NO voting side... which is important. In the scenario above where we come to and there is no duel, we would learn that at least one player within Players 7-12 are skum (1/6).


No super like... pushing this plan rn... just more throwing it out there.

[2.71828.....]

So if we do this plan it guarantees 6 yes votes for the duel. And if the duel fails we know that 1 person in that group of 6 is scum

It seems like a lot of effort organizing over a very sorry period of time when people in America will probably just wake up to the duel option and not have a chance to weigh in on the plan until after the duel has started.

Maybe something to think about for D3, but not today

[2.71828.....]

So if we do this plan it guarantees 6 yes votes for the duel. And if the duel fails we know that 1 person in that group of 6 is scum

It seems like a lot of effort organizing over a very sorry* period of time when people in America will probably just wake up to the duel option and not have a chance to weigh in on the plan until after the duel has started.

Maybe something to think about for D3, but not today

*Short

[Joseph2302]

So if we do this plan it guarantees 6 yes votes for the duel. And if the duel fails we know that 1 person in that group of 6 is scum

It seems like a lot of effort organizing over a very sorry period of time when people in America will probably just wake up to the duel option and not have a chance to weigh in on the plan until after the duel has started.

Maybe something to think about for D3, but not today

Sounds like something feasible for another day

[Debatepro]

Just so I understand what people are saying.

The suggestion is that we all vote yes for the duel regardless of knowns and reads, is that correct? So if the duel is debatepro (town!known) v. X (town!read), I should vote yes?

All this because there is somewhere between a 72-81% chance town would be assigned a PR.

[Debatepro]

@Joth/Glooble - When was the last time (which game?) you were scum together?

@Robz/MCMC - Same question?

[jotheonah]

The only time I can remember is drunk mafia. And it was a no night chat game where I was desperately breadcrumbing my kill targets and he was missing them.

I really like ADK’s plan. And we have plenty of time to agree to it.

[2.71828.....]

The only time I can remember is drunk mafia. And it was a no night chat game where I was desperately breadcrumbing my kill targets and he was missing them.

I really like ADK’s plan. And we have plenty of time to agree to it.

Datswan's plan? I am fine doing it, we can always unilaterally decide for everyone else

[2.71828.....]

And unless I am mistaken, this phase 2a should end at any time, basically whenever silverspawn  shows up

[silverspawn]

Thread locked!

[silverspawn]

What I did not realize at the time was that, with the death of the game, I too would fade. How could I have known that I was only a product of the game, not a real human being? Oh well. On the other hand, I don't feel any shame about the fact that the game turned out to be a disaster. It's a tragedy, honestly but, at least I had that damn T-1000 to kick around. I might have stayed away had I not, of course.

... What I did not realize at the time was that, with the death of the game, I too would fade. How could I have known that I was only a product of the game, not a real human being? Oh well. On the other hand, I do have a few new ideas going forward (I think) and hope to return to my former hobby.
Thank you for reading. This post is intended as general introduction to the Diaspora-themed art I do. I would appreciate feedback regarding what works, what doesn't, and what you really like or don't like about what I do. I am constantly looking forward to talking with you and seeing your reactions.

... what I did not realize at the time was that, with the death of the game, I too would fade. How could I have known that I was only a product of the game, not a real human being? Oh well. On the other hand, I was a good fighter. I knew how to use my powers. But in some way, I was a real human being, even if I lived in a video game. The game wasn't real. It wasn't even real to my eyes. It was only a series of lines of code, a series of words on a page, and a series of actions. When I died, the game ended. This made me feel less a part of it , and maybe the game stopped making a profit from me. But at the same time, it made me feel real. And I got a new job, which still pays my rent, and I started to notice that, in some strange way, I got to be a part of the real world. In fact, I had a new job, which paid me more money than the first

... ... what I did not realize at the time was that, with the death of the game, I too would fade. How could I have known that I was only a product of the game, not a real human being? Oh well. On the other hand, I don't know if I would really have enjoyed the game any other way. For me, though, it was a game about death. It was a game about an immortal being, who had just died of a mysterious disease, and now had to live his eternal life surrounded by his own family, all while enduring the worst of their suffering, which included the loss of all his limbs. The death of one would not bring him true peace, and what was the point of living if one didn't want peace? This is a game about pain, that will likely make you cry. It's about people with disabilities, who lose things they take for granted, such as the ability to move about, to think, and all aspects of their lives. It's a game about the pain of dying, as well as the pain of loss.

... ... ... what I did not realize at the time was that, with the death of the game, I too would fade. How could I have known that I was only a product of the game, not a real human being? Oh well. On the other hand, _______ _______ has made it to the same age. And I will remain here in perpetual misery until I die. All I do is try and protect myself from the reality that I am just a product of the game. It was my fault for even starting it. No one ever took my hand, except my game. As a kid, I hated the game. As an adult, I think it ruined me. I don't know if I was ever good at it, but I still didn't play as often as I should have. So now there's no hope anymore. That's what I need. This is the last game anyone should ever be allowed to play. This game, this game, is too evil. It should be banned. It should be destroyed. It's the kind of thing we should never see again. It was

... ... ... ... what I did not realize at the time was that, with the death of the game, I too would fade. How could I have known that I was only a product of the game, not a real human being? Oh well. On the other hand,  I'm no long the person that played the game as an infant boy, only to have it turn into a world-beating experience, only to have it turn into what I considered a world-beating experience, only to have it turn completely into nothing, only to have it all turn into an endless, meaningless, meaningless death, only to have it all turn into one more death. I'm an adult now. I had the chance to die a happy, dignified death, and I took it.

... ... ... ... ... what I did not realize at the time was that, with the death of the game, I too would fade. How could I have known that I was only a product of the game, not a real human being? Oh well. On the other hand, it turns out that I will eventually fade too! That, and I was able to see the light of another day as I found the most beautiful woman with whom I have ever been involved. That's my story after all, don't you ever get tired of telling yourself that?

Posted by Jule at 9:55

PS: Seymour and Chalmers hate love letters.

[silverspawn]

The potential duel is between Glooble and jothenoah.

You have until September 12, 09:00 forum time to vote in your QT. Please bold your vote and make it unambiguous, such as support: duel or oppose: duel

[silverspawn]

The missle that knows knows that the threat of mafia lurking among it is the number one priority. But the remaining passengers seem to have forgotten.

C: Well, Seymour, I made it- despite your directions.

S: Ah. Superintendent Chalmers. Welcome. I hope you're prepared for an unforgettable luncheon.

C: Yeah. Oh, egads! My roast is ruined. But what if I were to purchase fast food and disguise it as my own cooking? Delightfully devilish, Seymour. Seymour!

S: Superintendent, I was just- uh, just stretching my calves on the windowsill. Isometric exercise. Care to join me?

C: Why is there smoke coming out of your oven, Seymour? Uh-

S: Oh. That isn't smoke. It's steam. Steam from the steamed clams we're having. Mmm. Steamed clams. Whew. Superintendent, I hope you're prepared for an unforgettable birthday. - My birthday.

C: Aww. I'm gonna kill you. I hope you're prepared for a nightmare, Seymour. Just a few minutes. All right! Let's get those clams steamed! Get on. I'm just warming up a little bit. Good! Good for you, girl! Thanks. Now, it's time to address that letter that was sent to us.

S: Ah, the love letter. On my birthday, no less. Wasn't it just the most horrible thing?

C: The most horrible thing indeed, Seymour. Clearly we must duel it to the death. There is no other way.

S: Ah, yes, yes, of course. Though would it still be a duel if it involves both of us, superintendent?

C: Don't be silly, Seymour. Have a clam. Obviously you get to participate for free on your birthday.

S: Right! You want to see a clam?

C: Of course! What do you like best?

S: I like clams.

C: How about that?

[silverspawn]

The duel commences.

Thread unlocked!

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 2.2

Glooble (0):
jothenoah (0):

Not Voting (12): Awaclus, Uncleeurope, DatSwan, mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, A Drowned Kernel, EFHW, e, Debatepro, Glooble, jotheonah

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on September 18, 05:00 forum time.

[Glooble]

Well this was staggering unlikely.

vote: joth

because for me there is literally no reason not to.

[Awaclus]

Vote: Glooble

[Joseph2302]

Oh we have a duel. Kind of didn't expect that

[Joseph2302]

Maybe everyone should claim whether they voted for duel or not?

[Joseph2302]

Also I'm V/LA tomorrow til Monday

[jotheonah]

vote: Glooble

Yeah, I’m now very skeptical duels are random.

But I’m happy enough with this one. I voted for it, both because of Swan’s plan and because I think Glooble’s scum and I think I can win.

[Glooble]

I voted for it because I think joth's scum. I'm less sure about my ability to win, but I'm pretty confident if I lose my flip will give town some really good info.

[Robz888]

I voted for the duel, even though I have semi strong town reads on both Glooble and Jo. That's how much I wanted to duel!

[A Drowned Kernel]

I voted yes on duel, and I'm now more skeptical of joth for switching his stance on duels for swan's plan, which accomplishes pretty much the same thing as everyone always voting yes

[A Drowned Kernel]

Oh we have a duel. Kind of didn't expect that

You didn't expect people to vote yes on joth and glooble?

[A Drowned Kernel]

I voted for the duel, even though I have semi strong town reads on both Glooble and Jo. That's how much I wanted to duel!

Is it everything you dreamed of?

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 2.3

Glooble (2): Awaclus, jotheonah
jothenoah (1): Glooble

Not Voting (9): Uncleeurope, DatSwan, mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, A Drowned Kernel, EFHW, e, Debatepro, Glooble

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on September 18, 05:00 forum time.

Once upon a time, there was a group of rats who saw a squire tending to a horse. Then they ate him.

"Yummy," Carl said to his fellow rat Steven.

"Indeed," Steven replied. "Oh rats! Who is this?"

"Hi," Anna said, before she impaled both rats on her sword. She threw the first into the cellar that had magically appeared, then she took a stroll through the village in order to urchin-hunt.

[jotheonah]

I voted for the duel, even though I have semi strong town reads on both Glooble and Jo. That's how much I wanted to duel!

vote: Robz

[jotheonah]

I voted yes on duel, and I'm now more skeptical of joth for switching his stance on duels for swan's plan, which accomplishes pretty much the same thing as everyone always voting yes

In my defense, I didn't really have to make a choice about the plan because I would have voted yes on this duel anyway.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I voted yes on duel, and I'm now more skeptical of joth for switching his stance on duels for swan's plan, which accomplishes pretty much the same thing as everyone always voting yes

In my defense, I didn't really have to make a choice about the plan because I would have voted yes on this duel anyway.

But you had no idea what the duel was going to be when swan proposed the plan

[Joseph2302]

Oh we have a duel. Kind of didn't expect that

You didn't expect people to vote yes on joth and glooble?

I thought all the no duellers from yesterday would vote no again

OTOH, the fact it got lots of yes votes could just mean it's town v town. But we may as well assume that isn't the case for now (as if it is  then it's tough luck and we have to kill one of them)

Although I don't personally think they're both town anyway

[mcmcsalot]

I voted no again. As I said I’m not convinced either joth or glooble are scum. I think the Pr is not going to be worth not getting any more cases made today. I think this duel was great for scum.

We also now have 3 of 4 duel participants voting for the duel. E, joth, and glooble.

[Robz888]

I voted no again. As I said I’m not convinced either joth or glooble are scum. I think the Pr is not going to be worth not getting any more cases made today. I think this duel was great for scum.

We also now have 3 of 4 duel participants voting for the duel. E, joth, and glooble.

Probably means ADK is scum!

[A Drowned Kernel]

Oh we have a duel. Kind of didn't expect that

You didn't expect people to vote yes on joth and glooble?

I thought all the no duellers from yesterday would vote no again

OTOH, the fact it got lots of yes votes could just mean it's town v town. But we may as well assume that isn't the case for now (as if it is  then it's tough luck and we have to kill one of them)

Although I don't personally think they're both town anyway

I'm pretty sure the only person who was opposed to dueling on principle was EFHW, everyone else was in the "based on reads" boat

[A Drowned Kernel]

I voted no again. As I said I’m not convinced either joth or glooble are scum. I think the Pr is not going to be worth not getting any more cases made today. I think this duel was great for scum.

We also now have 3 of 4 duel participants voting for the duel. E, joth, and glooble.

Assuming they're all telling the truth about how they voted

[Joseph2302]

I voted for the duel by the way (in case it wasn't obvious)

[Joseph2302]

Vote: joth

This is L-5

[EFHW]

I actually voted yes. The joth/Glooble thing generates a lot of discussion. I don't have strong town reads on either of them and I'd like to see how good the pr's are going to be. Call it an experiment.

[jotheonah]

There's something really sad about the fact that MiX was the one who so badly wanted to see a twinfight, yet he's the one who's not around to see it.

Pour one out for our homie.

[Swowl]

Well robz you got your dish... twin battle. Lol

[EFHW]

There's something really sad about the fact that MiX was the one who so badly wanted to see a twinfight, yet he's the one who's not around to see it.

Pour one out for our homie.

He can watch it from heaven aka the speccy.

[EFHW]

Now what? Should each dueler make a case for why they are town while the rest of us look for scumminess? I'm going to start rereading.

[2.71828.....]

I also voted yes to the duel.

Very much inclined to vote Glooble here as Joth was a pretty strong town read for me going back to D1.  Glooble (or anyone who wants to make the case), why should I vote Joth?

[jotheonah]

Joseph, what happened between

Based on that, Vote: Glooble

and

Vote: joth

This is L-5

?

[jotheonah]

I would direct everyone to my original case on Glooble:

I think Glooble is scum. vote: Glooble

-- clip --

He responded to that case in kind of a scummy way. Like an OMGUS with extra steps. It's possible that he's town who honestly doesn't believe I could misread him this badly as town, and is therefor voting for me for voting for him. That's not crazy logic. But it's equally possible that he's scum who knows the best argument against my case is to discredit me.

All game the root of my Glooble case is that all his scumreads feel fake and contrived. His scumread on me is no different. He reads like someone looking for a lynch (and.or for survival), not someone looking for scum.

I'll try to do some further rereading, but really my case on Glooble is largely out there already. I can only people are more inclined to agree with it than they were on Day 1.

[Joseph2302]

Joseph, what happened between

Based on that, Vote: Glooble

and

Vote: joth

This is L-5

?

Thinking time. And I need to think more to be honest
Honestly don't think I've played with either of you much/at all before, so having a hard time reading you both

[Glooble]

I would direct everyone to my original case on Glooble:

I think Glooble is scum. vote: Glooble

-- clip --

He responded to that case in kind of a scummy way. Like an OMGUS with extra steps. It's possible that he's town who honestly doesn't believe I could misread him this badly as town, and is therefor voting for me for voting for him. That's not crazy logic. But it's equally possible that he's scum who knows the best argument against my case is to discredit me.

All game the root of my Glooble case is that all his scumreads feel fake and contrived. His scumread on me is no different. He reads like someone looking for a lynch (and.or for survival), not someone looking for scum.

I'll try to do some further rereading, but really my case on Glooble is largely out there already. I can only people are more inclined to agree with it than they were on Day 1.

Honestly, joth's case on me is my #1 reason for thinking joth is scum. I don't in fact, believe he could misread me this badly as town. His slip up about saying he voted for the duel on day one because of my case on ADK when I had actually made a case on DatSwan also feels like a mistake much more likely to come from a scum joth trying to come up with a fake justification for a vote than from a town joth trying to decide how to vote.

If I was trying to stay alive I would %100 have voted against this duel. If I was scum my best defense against that case would not have been to turn on joth. That would have been a stupid play. It would have been better to either deflect to someone else or just ignore joth's case and let it blow over (which it more or less did, at least day one.) Because making a case on the person making a case on you looks scummy, and I'm aware of this, whether I'm scum or town. As town, I opted to do it anyway because finding scum is more important than keeping myself alive. As scum I absolutely would not have.

Joth is also aware of this, which is why he made his case on me out of no where before I could make a case on him. I still think this is the most plausible scenario - joth knows I can read him well enough that I'm going to start suspecting him eventually, so he makes a pre-emptive case on me to make my eventual turn on him look like OMGUS.

[jotheonah]

I would direct everyone to my original case on Glooble:

I think Glooble is scum. vote: Glooble

-- clip --

He responded to that case in kind of a scummy way. Like an OMGUS with extra steps. It's possible that he's town who honestly doesn't believe I could misread him this badly as town, and is therefor voting for me for voting for him. That's not crazy logic. But it's equally possible that he's scum who knows the best argument against my case is to discredit me.

All game the root of my Glooble case is that all his scumreads feel fake and contrived. His scumread on me is no different. He reads like someone looking for a lynch (and.or for survival), not someone looking for scum.

I'll try to do some further rereading, but really my case on Glooble is largely out there already. I can only people are more inclined to agree with it than they were on Day 1.

Honestly, joth's case on me is my #1 reason for thinking joth is scum. I don't in fact, believe he could misread me this badly as town. His slip up about saying he voted for the duel on day one because of my case on ADK when I had actually made a case on DatSwan also feels like a mistake much more likely to come from a scum joth trying to come up with a fake justification for a vote than from a town joth trying to decide how to vote.

If I was trying to stay alive I would %100 have voted against this duel. If I was scum my best defense against that case would not have been to turn on joth. That would have been a stupid play. It would have been better to either deflect to someone else or just ignore joth's case and let it blow over (which it more or less did, at least day one.) Because making a case on the person making a case on you looks scummy, and I'm aware of this, whether I'm scum or town. As town, I opted to do it anyway because finding scum is more important than keeping myself alive. As scum I absolutely would not have.

Joth is also aware of this, which is why he made his case on me out of no where before I could make a case on him. I still think this is the most plausible scenario - joth knows I can read him well enough that I'm going to start suspecting him eventually, so he makes a pre-emptive case on me to make my eventual turn on him look like OMGUS.

Oh I see. So in fact, I actually OMGUS'd you by voting for you BEFORE you voted for me.

This is like when one little kid says "you're copying me" and the other one says "no you're copying me, but backwards"

[Debatepro]

I voted no duel. Based on my reads I thought it was town versus potential town. I also feel like I have a stronger scum read on other players. I wanted to explore those other options.

Also misunderstood the PR rules. I thought scum had about 27% chance of receiving a PR to use.

[Robz888]

I voted no duel. Based on my reads I thought it was town versus potential town. I also feel like I have a stronger scum read on other players. I wanted to explore those other options.

Also misunderstood the PR rules. I thought scum had about 27% chance of receiving a PR to use.

What other options did you want to explore?

[Debatepro]

I voted no duel. Based on my reads I thought it was town versus potential town. I also feel like I have a stronger scum read on other players. I wanted to explore those other options.

Also misunderstood the PR rules. I thought scum had about 27% chance of receiving a PR to use.

What other options did you want to explore?

Of those who have voted in this duel, Awaclus.

[EFHW]

vote: joth. I think his case on Glooble reads like a gambit.

[jotheonah]

vote: joth. I think his case on Glooble reads like a gambit.

I don't really know what that means...

[EFHW]

vote: joth. I think his case on Glooble reads like a gambit.

I don't really know what that means...

I mean that it reads as more strategic than genuine to me.

[Swowl]

I hate that this duel happened. I think they are both town, or at least i can come up with a large list of people that are more likely skum imo before i get to either of the twins.

- both of them could be skum
- both of them could be town
- it could be one and another

I tried to pull that apart and use it to make a choice but really...

- if one flips skum, it would make me even more suspicious of the other
- if one flipped town, nothing would change in my mind

Which obviously sucks because if it is one skum one town and we choose town then i am gonna lean town on skum and if we lynch skum i am gonna lean skum in town....


I have nothing. Just nothing. The only thing i can come up with is Joth wouldn’t of switched to robz when he did if robz is skum... but that is if both Joth and robz are skum... and that is like way too much for me to even get into vca assuming at.

So yeah idk. I am gonna re read both and take it from there but my gut is to ask Joth/Glooble who they think and why a more profitable flip would be.

[jotheonah]

vote: joth. I think his case on Glooble reads like a gambit.

I don't really know what that means...

I mean that it reads as more strategic than genuine to me.

Idk what to tell you. It’s as genuine a day 1 case as I’ve ever made. And strategically it’s kind of a mess.

[jotheonah]

There’s just no reason for scum to be so proactive so early. Early game scum is so much better off being reactive and opportunistic. That’s the difference between me and Glooble. I brought all this attention on myself by presenting one of the first real cases of the game. Glooble had the attention forced on him and is trying his best to redirect it. One of those is a position that it’s easy to imagine scum in. The other is a position it’s easy to imagine town in.

Even Glooble acknowledges that scum!joth wouldn’t just go after him arbitrarily or for fun. That’s why he had to make up that ridiculous, convoluted thing about me being worried I wouldn’t be able to fool him — despite him expressing no trace of a scum read on me prior to me articulating one on him. So why, why on earth, as scum, would I set myself up against the player who knows me best?

[A Drowned Kernel]

There’s just no reason for scum to be so proactive so early. Early game scum is so much better off being reactive and opportunistic. That’s the difference between me and Glooble. I brought all this attention on myself by presenting one of the first real cases of the game. Glooble had the attention forced on him and is trying his best to redirect it. One of those is a position that it’s easy to imagine scum in. The other is a position it’s easy to imagine town in.

Even Glooble acknowledges that scum!joth wouldn’t just go after him arbitrarily or for fun. That’s why he had to make up that ridiculous, convoluted thing about me being worried I wouldn’t be able to fool him — despite him expressing no trace of a scum read on me prior to me articulating one on him. So why, why on earth, as scum, would I set myself up against the player who knows me best?

There's every reason for scum to be proactive early, because doing so makes you look towny.

[jotheonah]

There’s just no reason for scum to be so proactive so early. Early game scum is so much better off being reactive and opportunistic. That’s the difference between me and Glooble. I brought all this attention on myself by presenting one of the first real cases of the game. Glooble had the attention forced on him and is trying his best to redirect it. One of those is a position that it’s easy to imagine scum in. The other is a position it’s easy to imagine town in.

Even Glooble acknowledges that scum!joth wouldn’t just go after him arbitrarily or for fun. That’s why he had to make up that ridiculous, convoluted thing about me being worried I wouldn’t be able to fool him — despite him expressing no trace of a scum read on me prior to me articulating one on him. So why, why on earth, as scum, would I set myself up against the player who knows me best?

There's every reason for scum to be proactive early, because doing so makes you look towny.

Sure, and that WIFOM argument exists with every "scum wouldn't do X" argument. BUT my position is that the most important thing for scum day 1 is not to look townie, it's to stay under the radar. You can worry about looking townie later on, but not being the day 1 lynch is priority number one. And despite how much we talk about lynching lurkers, we actually tend to lynch someone who DID something. Someone who put themselves out there like I did, opening myself up for scumreads. So if I'm scum, I took a big risk for a small gain. And that's a good way to lose games. Scum has to be bold sometimes, but it's when the stakes are high and something's on the line, not when it's just as easy to sit back and see what happens.

[EFHW]

There’s just no reason for scum to be so proactive so early. Early game scum is so much better off being reactive and opportunistic. That’s the difference between me and Glooble. I brought all this attention on myself by presenting one of the first real cases of the game. Glooble had the attention forced on him and is trying his best to redirect it. One of those is a position that it’s easy to imagine scum in. The other is a position it’s easy to imagine town in.

Even Glooble acknowledges that scum!joth wouldn’t just go after him arbitrarily or for fun. That’s why he had to make up that ridiculous, convoluted thing about me being worried I wouldn’t be able to fool him — despite him expressing no trace of a scum read on me prior to me articulating one on him. So why, why on earth, as scum, would I set myself up against the player who knows me best?

These are all reasonable points. But scum often use the "why would I do that" defense. I don't know your motivations, but I have to pick one of you, so there it is.

PPE 2

[Glooble]

There’s just no reason for scum to be so proactive so early. Early game scum is so much better off being reactive and opportunistic. That’s the difference between me and Glooble. I brought all this attention on myself by presenting one of the first real cases of the game. Glooble had the attention forced on him and is trying his best to redirect it. One of those is a position that it’s easy to imagine scum in. The other is a position it’s easy to imagine town in.

Even Glooble acknowledges that scum!joth wouldn’t just go after him arbitrarily or for fun. That’s why he had to make up that ridiculous, convoluted thing about me being worried I wouldn’t be able to fool him — despite him expressing no trace of a scum read on me prior to me articulating one on him. So why, why on earth, as scum, would I set myself up against the player who knows me best?

There's every reason for scum to be proactive early, because doing so makes you look towny.

Sure, and that WIFOM argument exists with every "scum wouldn't do X" argument. BUT my position is that the most important thing for scum day 1 is not to look townie, it's to stay under the radar. You can worry about looking townie later on, but not being the day 1 lynch is priority number one. And despite how much we talk about lynching lurkers, we actually tend to lynch someone who DID something. Someone who put themselves out there like I did, opening myself up for scumreads. So if I'm scum, I took a big risk for a small gain. And that's a good way to lose games. Scum has to be bold sometimes, but it's when the stakes are high and something's on the line, not when it's just as easy to sit back and see what happens.

I'm not at all sure that's true. What did pubby do, exactly, to end up the day 1 lynch?

[Debatepro]

There’s just no reason for scum to be so proactive so early. Early game scum is so much better off being reactive and opportunistic. That’s the difference between me and Glooble. I brought all this attention on myself by presenting one of the first real cases of the game. Glooble had the attention forced on him and is trying his best to redirect it. One of those is a position that it’s easy to imagine scum in. The other is a position it’s easy to imagine town in.
Even Glooble acknowledges that scum!joth wouldn’t just go after him arbitrarily or for fun. That’s why he had to make up that ridiculous, convoluted thing about me being worried I wouldn’t be able to fool him — despite him expressing no trace of a scum read on me prior to me articulating one on him. So why, why on earth, as scum, would I set myself up against the player who knows me best?

IF Glooble can read Joth and Joth is scum, THEN your Glooble case is the smartest play because you have an initiative and tempo advantage. You have to directly confront him, holding back only delays the inevitable, and makes it more likely Glooble et al can isolate Joth’s scum partners. Killing MiX is also the smartest play. Someone (Joseph/Awaclus) will say it’s because MiX’s reads (Glooble & Town!Debate), Joth will/did say “why wouldn’t I just kill Glooble directly”.

But this reasoning is not good. IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1. Also, if Joth is Town, Scum can kill Glooble to direct attention to Joth which is also the better play (IMHO). In killing MiX, scum are able to continue to direct attention at Glooble while avoiding making Joth suspect #1. Worst case for scum partners in that case is Joth get's killed on D2, and we're left trying to isolate partners.

It would be risky for scum!glooble to NK MiX and direct attention at self. Less likely is some elaborate next level shit to orchestrate a twin fight (Town V Town).

[jotheonah]

IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1.

This is only true because I accused Glooble D1. But if I was really scum scared that Glooble would out me (again, and I think this is important, with no evidence whatsoever that he was scumreading me prior to me making my case), I would just skip the case and talk my team into nightkilling him night 1. Then Glooble would be dead and it wouldn't implicate me at all.

Also, if I were scum, don't you think one of my partners would be helping me out here? Do you really think the only person on my side would be Awaclus the monosyllabic?

[2.71828.....]

IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1.

This is only true because I accused Glooble D1. But if I was really scum scared that Glooble would out me (again, and I think this is important, with no evidence whatsoever that he was scumreading me prior to me making my case), I would just skip the case and talk my team into nightkilling him night 1. Then Glooble would be dead and it wouldn't implicate me at all.

Also, if I were scum, don't you think one of my partners would be helping me out here? Do you really think the only person on my side would be Awaclus the monosyllabic?

I am on your side

[jotheonah]

IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1.

This is only true because I accused Glooble D1. But if I was really scum scared that Glooble would out me (again, and I think this is important, with no evidence whatsoever that he was scumreading me prior to me making my case), I would just skip the case and talk my team into nightkilling him night 1. Then Glooble would be dead and it wouldn't implicate me at all.

Also, if I were scum, don't you think one of my partners would be helping me out here? Do you really think the only person on my side would be Awaclus the monosyllabic?

I am on your side

Thanks partner.

[2.71828.....]

IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1.

This is only true because I accused Glooble D1. But if I was really scum scared that Glooble would out me (again, and I think this is important, with no evidence whatsoever that he was scumreading me prior to me making my case), I would just skip the case and talk my team into nightkilling him night 1. Then Glooble would be dead and it wouldn't implicate me at all.

Also, if I were scum, don't you think one of my partners would be helping me out here? Do you really think the only person on my side would be Awaclus the monosyllabic?

I am on your side

Thanks partner.

You are doing great, keep up the good work

[Debatepro]

IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1.

This is only true because I accused Glooble D1. But if I was really scum scared that Glooble would out me (again, and I think this is important, with no evidence whatsoever that he was scumreading me prior to me making my case), I would just skip the case and talk my team into nightkilling him night 1. Then Glooble would be dead and it wouldn't implicate me at all.

Also, if I were scum, don't you think one of my partners would be helping me out here? Do you really think the only person on my side would be Awaclus the monosyllabic?

I disagree, I knew it before we entered the game, based on our last game (lynchpool).  I get it, one of you is going to be the Lynch, so you’ve got to do to help us find scum over the next few days. Sorry.

[jotheonah]

I'm not at all sure that's true. What did pubby do, exactly, to end up the day 1 lynch?

Fair enough. You do have to make enough of an impact to make sure the wheel of "crap we need a lynch" doesn't land on you. But I was doing that fine before my Glooble case.

[Debatepro]

Scum has an incentive to sit back in this duel and move with the herd, that way they don't put their necks on the line if/when glooble or joth flip town. If they flip scum, then they get to say they were on it.

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 2.4

Glooble (2): Awaclus, jotheonah
jothenoah (3): Glooble, Joseph2302, EFHW

Not Voting (7): Uncleeurope, DatSwan, mcmcsalot, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel, e, Debatepro

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on September 18, 05:00 forum time.

[EFHW]

Scum has an incentive to sit back in this duel and move with the herd, that way they don't put their necks on the line if/when glooble or joth flip town. If they flip scum, then they get to say they were on it.

The people sitting back are mcmc, Awaclus and Eddie.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Scum has an incentive to sit back in this duel and move with the herd, that way they don't put their necks on the line if/when glooble or joth flip town. If they flip scum, then they get to say they were on it.

The people sitting back are mcmc, Awaclus and Eddie.

I would also point out that despite his enthusiasm for the duel, robz hasn't actually indicated any preference to vote one way or the other

[Swowl]

So here is my weak ass case on why I think Joth is townier than Glooble....

1) Early Game) Says he is against duel, while simotaneously attempting to math out a way to use yes votes to manipulate skum into not having any power in the decision. Towny mind set.

2)

We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else

Agreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs

We need to run some pure vanilla games so this town stops being so dependent on PRs.

- Word.


3)

All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.

But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.

Correct math:

chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%

That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.

- His math was in fact wrong because there are 14 not 13. I will admit I am bias, because I also thought there were 13 not 14. Skum doesn't make that error. Especially when posting math type stuff. He then follows it up again with more re-corrected math. Just not a line I see skum joth taking.


4)

Check-in:

Claimed yes vote
e

Probable yes vote
Robz888
Joseph2302

Claimed no vote
pubby
mcmcsalot
Glooble
ADK
EFHW
MiX

Hasn't claimed
Awaclus
Debatepro
I0X
joth
DatSwan

So unless all five of us who have yet to claim voted yes, Awaclus is right: this isn't going to tell us anything. And I'm sure you can all figure out how I voted.

- Towny. Just the vibe of it. Or at least... not skummy.


5)

I think knowing how everyone voted will be useful later when we have flips. So we might as well force people to commit to an answer now?

- super towny. skum would either argue against it or say nothing. or as a side off there would be a plan in place in which everyone would claim out... but we had the guy not posting and Awaclus on the list... and then Joth. This would be a ballzy play to make as skum unless he was the one lying about the vote... but then the spotlight is one him... so that is unlikely.


6)

I would like debate and Awaclus and 0iX to claim.

What about DatSwan?

Him too.

- I could be bias here... but this came to me as he is paying close enough attention to the game to know offhand that I clearly was voting no regardless of anything. Towny.


7)

1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.

I was being coy because there was a very specific circumstance where I might have been able to gotcha scum, but with your claim that dream is dead.

- Again biased... but I had this literal exact same idea. So, town points imo for it.

I think Glooble is scum. vote: Glooble

I have been thinking this for a while but I didn't want to say it because I know some people assign a lot of weight to our reads on each other. I would ask you to pay attention to the case itself rather than that.

So this is more or less all of Glooble's posts and why they make him scummy. There are two parts to the case, plus a random scumtell.

1) He has played it as safe as one possibly could in the duel conversation, up until the point where having a strong opinion could actually help scum, at which point he developed one.

2) His case-making has been tentative, perfunctory, and unconvincing. His attempts at scumhunting read performative, and I think he's better than that when he's actually trying.

I'm neither pro-duel nor anti-duel. I will vote for a duel if I think it has a reasonably good chance of containing scum, and I will vote against a duel if it's more likely to me that both players are town. I'm not sure I see the advantage of having a default preference for duel or no duel.

This is exactly how scum positions themselves if they want to be safe however they vote. And it has the advantage of looking like a very sensible, towny position and staying neutral in the back and forth.

vote: DatSwan

Hard to articulate exactly why  but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.





clip -- Glooble's Swan case -- clip

These two posts, together and individually, just really feel to me like someone who is trying to make a case, not someone who is trying to determine who scum is.  It feels like the kind of case-making that you do when you know you’re not actually scumhunting. The fact that he states the vibe first and then makes the case further reinforces the idea that he wasn't so much looking for scum as choosing a person then building a case on them.

Well that was fun while it lasted. I now think DatSwan is town.

vote: pubby I guess?

And he immediately backs off the case when it fails to gain traction.

If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.

Safe vote explanation, set up by his prior post.

MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default

Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead

Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.

Meh. That's such a non-post.

I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.

This is actually the post that made me start looking at Glooble. Overly-apologetic/defensive is my top scumtell, though I know not everyone’s a fan.

Also for now I want to Vote: ADK

My theory being that if there's a duel with a scum on it, then that's 50/50 that the scum does, compared to 3/14 with no duel

So in my mind, the no duel makes it slightly more likely that one of the duellers were scum. And as I'm agreeing more with the e logic, ADK seems like a better vote

What you're missing is the fact that the scum in this scenario have two people who they know will vote for their opponent if necessary. That makes getting involved in the duel a lot safer for them. I think if I were scum I would vote for the duel unless the townie I was up against had a ton of towncred. And frankly, neither ADK nor e had that amount of towncred going into this vote.

This isn’t scummy in and of itself, but if scum voted no, it behooves scum to get town looking at claimed yes-voters.

- As previously mentioned... he doesn't need to go through this effort to vote for Glooble... he can just do it based on meta and it wouldn't be looked at.


9)

This is not a do or die case for me. I like playing with Glooble and I'd rather not D1 lynch him. And certainly I could be wrong, though my gut says I'm not. So my question, as always, is … what else ya got?

- This is too skummy to come from skum.


10)

vote: debatepro

Look at the current wagons:

Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (4): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, MiX, jotheonah
pubby (4): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus

Man, if the twin fight doesn't have scum in it...I'll wake up from the dream.

- so after this the wagon on Debate dies down, like down to 2 people. After that Joth switches to Pubby, putting them at L1. The viable options were Robz, Pubby, Debate. Debate died. Skum in that spot (first off if joth is skum then debate is not)... but skum in that spot would not just sit there until everyone else had placed their votes on the other two wagons waiting for their own vote to look super suspicious. They would of been off that debate wagon ASAP. He does then switch to robz... which is weird, but not weird enough to negate everything else.



I will follow up with another weak ass case on why I think Glooble is skummier than Joth shortly...

[Swowl]

for now

Vote: Glooble

[Swowl]

Weak ass case on why I think Glooble is skummier than Joth...

1)

So is it a bad idea to vote yes on the duel d1?

I think it's a bad idea if you think both combatants are town and a good idea if you think one of them is scum.

- OK... Day 1... 2 players are selected after 48 hours. There are no reads. this is just a non-point that seems overly towny. it could also just be towny.


2)

I don't think this is how scum!MiX plays day one in this setup. The votes-that-aren't-really votes thing especially is something that seems so scummy that scum wouldn't do it.

I think that scum!mix is self-aware enough to know that this is how town!mix would probably open things up and emulate it. Nothing he's said so far screams town to me

vote: mix

I agree that MiX is self-aware but I also think that MiX could find townier and scummier lines of play that both read as authentically MiX-like and I don't think he chooses the scummiest one as scum.

OTOH, We always try to lynch MiX day one and we never succeed, so maybe MiX is counting on that trend continuing.

- Again, super open ended. Kind of "MiX doesn't act this way as skum... but MiX would know that". Gives a back door for someone they admit to know is targeted a lot day 1. OTOH MiX was the NK... which seems just SUPER FREEKING WEIRD (whole other thing to bring up there). MiX always gets suspected at some point. It didn't happen day 1 really, so killing them is just a super odd choice.


3)

I'm neither pro-duel nor anti-duel. I will vote for a duel if I think it has a reasonably good chance of containing scum, and I will vote against a duel if it's more likely to me that both players are town. I'm not sure I see the advantage of having a default preference for duel or no duel.

- This falls into the category of "Glooble doesn't post shit without thinking it through first".... "There is no default" of course there is a default. The default should un-arguably be to vote no unless you think someone is likely skum (as they actually like.. said in this post)... so that is off.


4)

vote: DatSwan

Hard to articulate exactly why  but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.

Please try, do you disagree with his analysis? Do you think the analysis is pushing us in a direction? Do you think the analysis is redundant? Do you think town!swan is unlikely to make analysis like that? Do you think scum!swan benefits from that analysis post?

Day 1 Duel: It is 100%, almost unarguably, wrong to go for the duel on Day 1.
I am not saying the duel concept is bad. For every negative there is a potential positive. Examples:
a) Items - Town could get a PR, or skum could get the fake claim.

b) % chance vs control vs plurality - it would seem the % chance of having a skum selected day 1 is fairly similar to randomly choosing a player to lynch day 1. The difference is that it does take some control away from skum in the duel setting. Without the duel we need 8 to lynch, with the duel it is just majority. However, on day one we assume we will lynch town... that does not change just because there is a duel. So it gives skum less control over keeping one of their own alive, but only if one of their own is selected... if it is TownvTown... it is all bad news.


---This is the important one---
c) Information - When we isolate the field to 2 players the info we have to look back on is EXTREMELY LIMITED. If we roll SkumVTown and go to lynch it could prove useful. However, that cannot be an expectation. If the mod selects player A and player B to duel and we have to choose between them... we can still just say no and have the chance at lynching player A or Player B. The argument against would be to put skum in a tough spot with plurality and take the duel to force a lynch... but it is day one... so the only people that actually know anything are skum.

This post is sort of null on the balance-  he starts with "100%, inarguably wrong" but then follows it up with a post that sort of presents the arguments for and against, so its hardly "unarguable". But that kind of bold, black and white statement feels to me like scum!swan trying to get town points by taking a strong stance. Then bullet point b is just a lot of talking without saying much of anything, which is scummy. I will give Swan town points for point C though, it's a good point and not something I would necessarily bring up as scum.

Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.

I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.

At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.

Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.

The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.

1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.

2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting

3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.

This was the post that felt really scummy to me. I think it's just the way he's setting up expectations for exactly how he thinks scum will play it. Maybe so he can act differently and then use his theory for how scum would play to defend his play/ his teammates' play as townie? I don't know, it's not a strong case, he just feels off to me.

- Bias again. But this was weak ass reasoning. I get the perspective, and then they bailed on it. But it struck me as advantageous at the time... which is normally how I get mislynched.


5)

Well that was fun while it lasted. I now think DatSwan is town.

vote: pubby I guess?

- So this is the unvote and move to pubby. Puts pubby at 4. I was getting no traction. I guess that is null, but notable.


6)

If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.

- Super lame and straightforward reasoning that I would not use if it wasn't heads up... but getting a no vote in quick is skummy by comparison to Joth's approach.


7)

MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default

Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead

Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.

Meh. That's such a non-post.

I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.

- Backing down again super easy. Weird for Gloobs.

Look, last game I had a scummy feeling about pingpongsam all game, but I never acted on it because I didn't have evidence. It turned out pps was scum. A few games ago on lynchpool I caught scum!shraeye based pretty much entirely on a gut read that I couldn't articulate. So I resolved to start trusting my reads more, hence the vote for Swan without explanation. Then mcmcsalot called me on it and everybody said they were townreading Swan, so I looked more closely, and figured out what it was I found scummy, but I also found some towny stuff in that reread. I didn't back off because the lynch wasn't gaining traction, I backed off because he made a post that felt very townie and changed my read on him.

I'm flattered that you think I'm better than this as town, but the fact is my day 1 cases as town pretty much always suck (and often they're on DatSwan.)

- Totally accurate. Except they bailed on me really quick this time. Normally I get a tunnel.


9)

Your case on me, though, is, frankly below your usual standards.

Like, I guess its a fine day one case? It's completely wrong, but so subjective that there's nothing in it that I can argue against.

- Bias again.. again again... this is how I find most people respond to cases on them Day 1 when skum when they have time on their side. They just dismiss it.


10)

1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.

I was being coy because there was a very specific circumstance where I might have been able to gotcha scum, but with your claim that dream is dead.

At the last minute, I voted yes for the duel. It was a change in my previous thinking. For one thing, ADK had been scumread by Glooble, who I tend to trust, and e wasn’t having an exceptionally townie game. It felt like they were both decent day 1 lynches. And partly I felt it would be better for the vote to be closer, for this scenario we’re in right now.

Here's a thing - joth is saying he, at least partially, based his vote on my scum case against ADK, which was actually against DatSwan. Joth had a whole day to decide yes or no. You'd think he would have reread. I did. But if he had reread he would have seen that my case was on Swan. This seems like an easier mistake for scum!joth to have made while coming up with a townie justification for his vote.

- Everything about this makes sense. Except for the last part where Joth makes this mistake as skum while coming up with justification for their vote. If anything they could make the mistake on an original case... but to be defending oneself as skum... you don't make that blunder imo.




and then there is a continuous amount of posts that I cannot find skummy. Which is why this duel sucks. However, there are a few things that are weird:

1) If Glooble thought Joth was skum, why did Glooble follow Joth's vote around everywhere?

2) If Glooble thought Joth was skum, why would Glooble agree to post this reads list (at Joth's request) after the only other player that posted was conf!town MiX:

DatSwan - leaning town but still a tiny bit suspicious
Awaclus - he is acting less belligerent than usual, but I refuse to lynch him for that
jotheonah - not that scummy but scummier than anyone else to me right now
Glooble - town
Joseph2302 - null
2.71828..... - I could be convinced to vote here. I should reread.
0Ix - who?
Debatepro - can't remember anything he's done this game
MiX - townish
EFHW - town
A Drowned Kernel - probably town, despite our disagreements about how scum would act
Robz888 - null, this new meta sucks
pubby - was leaning scum, now leaning null
mcmcsalot - town

3) I am about as pro info as you get as town. But lists on Day 1 are almost always a horrible idea for Town. Suppose that is points against both Joth and Glooble though:

As scum I would absolutely just make shit up, but I don't do that as town. So if I have no strong scumreads, you get a readlist with no strong scumreads.

There is a third option you know, besides "make stuff up" and "make a list with no strong scumreads". I wonder if you can guess what it is...

Pull an Awaclus and refuse to make a list?

4)

Glooble (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (1): Glooble

Can both of you (especially Glooble) explain what this is supposed to mean to everyone else?

This is my way of asking "why is he the scummiest player" to both of you.

I still think joth’s more than likely scum. But you’re right, it’s not a useful place to have my vote right now.

I’m gonna join this Robz train. He’s a very good joth partner candidate.

vote: Robz

- Skummy



So yeah... I am Glooble over Joth.

[Swowl]

Glooble/Joth: Who is skum?

[Swowl]

Glooble/Joth: Who is skum?

other than people you are related to

[Swowl]

I voted no again. As I said I’m not convinced either joth or glooble are scum. I think the Pr is not going to be worth not getting any more cases made today. I think this duel was great for scum.

We also now have 3 of 4 duel participants voting for the duel. E, joth, and glooble.

what is more interesting is that both Joth and Glooble supposedly voted yes to this engagement of the duel. There really hasn't been any sway one way or another in terms of majority on the two of them if I am remember correctly. The fact that either of them would think they could win against the other is strange to me.

[Swowl]

and bed.

[Swowl]

Vote Count 2.4

Glooble (2): Awaclus, jotheonah
jothenoah (3): Glooble, Joseph2302, EFHW

Not Voting (7): Uncleeurope, DatSwan, mcmcsalot, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel, e, Debatepro, Glooble

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on September 18, 05:00 forum time.

last thing... Glooble is off and on here.

[Awaclus]

Glooble/Joth: Who is skum?

other than people you are related to

What is this supposed to accomplish?

[Glooble]

Swan, if reads lists are a horrible idea for town, that is way more scum points for the guy who suggested them than the guy who followed. But I stand by my argument that making the list I made makes no sense for a scum player.

The only time I “sheeped” joth was on pubby, and at that point I was still townreading him. I didn’t start scum reading him until his case on me.

BtW I’m not going to be available most of today.

[Glooble]

Glooble/Joth: Who is skum?

other than people you are related to

Maybe ADK, Maybe Robz, maybe Awaclus. Don’t count out mcmcsalot either, he’s very slippery as scum, though on the whole I find scum!mcmcsalot to be more controlling of the game than town mcmcsalot, so he wouldn’t be my first choice.

In retrospect I shouldn’t have voted for the duel, but again, as scum I definitely would have voted against it.

[jotheonah]

I tend to agree— looking at Robz and Awa but not like super confident. I’d also put Joseph on that list.

Townreading ADK, Swan, e, Eddie (though I can’t read him for shit so who knows)

I have to reread debate and I’m null on mcmc

[jotheonah]

I voted no again. As I said I’m not convinced either joth or glooble are scum. I think the Pr is not going to be worth not getting any more cases made today. I think this duel was great for scum.

We also now have 3 of 4 duel participants voting for the duel. E, joth, and glooble.

what is more interesting is that both Joth and Glooble supposedly voted yes to this engagement of the duel. There really hasn't been any sway one way or another in terms of majority on the two of them if I am remember correctly. The fact that either of them would think they could win against the other is strange to me.

Look at day 1 pre-duel. Glooble was the leading wagon. Seemed like lots of folks were itching to vote for him. I figured this would be a slam dunk and I’m genuinely surprised it’s so contentious.

[jotheonah]

Sorry, Day 2 pre-duel

[A Drowned Kernel]

I voted no again. As I said I’m not convinced either joth or glooble are scum. I think the Pr is not going to be worth not getting any more cases made today. I think this duel was great for scum.

We also now have 3 of 4 duel participants voting for the duel. E, joth, and glooble.

what is more interesting is that both Joth and Glooble supposedly voted yes to this engagement of the duel. There really hasn't been any sway one way or another in terms of majority on the two of them if I am remember correctly. The fact that either of them would think they could win against the other is strange to me.

Look at day 1 pre-duel. Glooble was the leading wagon. Seemed like lots of folks were itching to vote for him. I figured this would be a slam dunk and I’m genuinely surprised it’s so contentious.

I'm going to be honest, this is part of the reason I'm starting to lean toward voting you

[2.71828.....]

Vote Count 1.6

Glooble (3): jotheonah, MiX, A Drowned Kernel
Robz888 (1): pubby
jotheonah (2): Glooble, EFHW
e (1): DatSwan
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302, Robz888

Not Voting (3): Debatepro, Uncleeurope, e

So this is the largest Glooble wagon I could find D1. I think pre-duel D1 "itching to vote" is a lot different than "itching to lynch"

I think that scum could very well have stayed away from Glooble and ignored the growing wagon hoping a duel would get rid of their problems.

Basically, ADK and I are reading the same thing, ADK thinks it makes joth look scummy, I think it makes Glooble look scummy

[Debatepro]

Vote Count 1.6
....

So this is the largest Glooble wagon I could find D1. I think pre-duel D1 "itching to vote" is a lot different than "itching to lynch"

I think that scum could very well have stayed away from Glooble and ignored the growing wagon hoping a duel would get rid of their problems.

Basically, ADK and I are reading the same thing, ADK thinks it makes joth look scummy, I think it makes Glooble look scummy

Unless I am missing something, Joth amended his statement to D2 pre-duel in the next post.

Sorry, Day 2 pre-duel

This is the latest vote count prior to the announcement of the duel.

Glooble (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Awaclus (2): e, eddie
Robz (1): Joth
ADK (1): Glooble

Not Voting: DatSwan, Debatepro, EFHW, Robz, MCMC

Vote#	Post#	---By---	---For---	---------TimeStamp-----	Notes
D2-1	636	Awaclus	Glooble	Sept 09 04:16:34 am	NR
D2-2	671	e	Awaclus	Sept 09 05:24:13 am	NR-Scummy and opportunistic (673)
D2-3	684	ADK	e	Sept 09 08:44:08 am	NR
D2-4	685	ADK	Glooble	Sept 09 08:46:43 am	NR
D2-5	687	Joth	Robz	Sept 09 08:58:15 am	Pointing others on Pubby wagon, lame, Robz scummiest on wagon IMO
D2-6	701	Glooble	ADK	Sept 09 11:07:09 AM	Awaclus, ADK, Robz voted for pubby, mix, and glooble. (701)
D2-7	726	Joseph	Glooble	Sept 09 03:07:32 pm	725 based on debates data, MiX votes for Glooble/Debate must be one of them
D2-8	737	Eddie	Awaclus	Sept 10 06:34:39 am	Awaclus or Glooble evil, Awaclus has fewer votes

[Swowl]

Glooble/Joth: Who is skum?

other than people you are related to

What is this supposed to accomplish?

You’re smart - math it out

[Swowl]

Swan, if reads lists are a horrible idea for town, that is way more scum points for the guy who suggested them than the guy who followed. But I stand by my argument that making the list I made makes no sense for a scum player.

The only time I “sheeped” joth was on pubby, and at that point I was still townreading him. I didn’t start scum reading him until his case on me.

BtW I’m not going to be available most of today.

Sheepish Joth point is fair enough.
I disagree with you that it is skinnier or Joth to say let’s do reads list tha. It was for you to follow suit.

[Awaclus]

Glooble/Joth: Who is skum?

other than people you are related to

What is this supposed to accomplish?

You’re smart - math it out

Well, the goal that it mostly seems to contribute towards is a scum victory.

[jotheonah]

Vote Count 1.6
....

So this is the largest Glooble wagon I could find D1. I think pre-duel D1 "itching to vote" is a lot different than "itching to lynch"

I think that scum could very well have stayed away from Glooble and ignored the growing wagon hoping a duel would get rid of their problems.

Basically, ADK and I are reading the same thing, ADK thinks it makes joth look scummy, I think it makes Glooble look scummy

Unless I am missing something, Joth amended his statement to D2 pre-duel in the next post.

Sorry, Day 2 pre-duel

This is the latest vote count prior to the announcement of the duel.

Glooble (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Awaclus (2): e, eddie
Robz (1): Joth
ADK (1): Glooble

Not Voting: DatSwan, Debatepro, EFHW, Robz, MCMC

Vote#	Post#	---By---	---For---	---------TimeStamp-----	Notes
D2-1	636	Awaclus	Glooble	Sept 09 04:16:34 am	NR
D2-2	671	e	Awaclus	Sept 09 05:24:13 am	NR-Scummy and opportunistic (673)
D2-3	684	ADK	e	Sept 09 08:44:08 am	NR
D2-4	685	ADK	Glooble	Sept 09 08:46:43 am	NR
D2-5	687	Joth	Robz	Sept 09 08:58:15 am	Pointing others on Pubby wagon, lame, Robz scummiest on wagon IMO
D2-6	701	Glooble	ADK	Sept 09 11:07:09 AM	Awaclus, ADK, Robz voted for pubby, mix, and glooble. (701)
D2-7	726	Joseph	Glooble	Sept 09 03:07:32 pm	725 based on debates data, MiX votes for Glooble/Debate must be one of them
D2-8	737	Eddie	Awaclus	Sept 10 06:34:39 am	Awaclus or Glooble evil, Awaclus has fewer votes

Thank you debate. If you were me and you saw that vote count, wouldn’t you vote for the duel? It’s less clear why Glooble would vote yes.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Vote Count 1.6
....

So this is the largest Glooble wagon I could find D1. I think pre-duel D1 "itching to vote" is a lot different than "itching to lynch"

I think that scum could very well have stayed away from Glooble and ignored the growing wagon hoping a duel would get rid of their problems.

Basically, ADK and I are reading the same thing, ADK thinks it makes joth look scummy, I think it makes Glooble look scummy

Unless I am missing something, Joth amended his statement to D2 pre-duel in the next post.

Sorry, Day 2 pre-duel

This is the latest vote count prior to the announcement of the duel.

Glooble (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Awaclus (2): e, eddie
Robz (1): Joth
ADK (1): Glooble

Not Voting: DatSwan, Debatepro, EFHW, Robz, MCMC

Vote#	Post#	---By---	---For---	---------TimeStamp-----	Notes
D2-1	636	Awaclus	Glooble	Sept 09 04:16:34 am	NR
D2-2	671	e	Awaclus	Sept 09 05:24:13 am	NR-Scummy and opportunistic (673)
D2-3	684	ADK	e	Sept 09 08:44:08 am	NR
D2-4	685	ADK	Glooble	Sept 09 08:46:43 am	NR
D2-5	687	Joth	Robz	Sept 09 08:58:15 am	Pointing others on Pubby wagon, lame, Robz scummiest on wagon IMO
D2-6	701	Glooble	ADK	Sept 09 11:07:09 AM	Awaclus, ADK, Robz voted for pubby, mix, and glooble. (701)
D2-7	726	Joseph	Glooble	Sept 09 03:07:32 pm	725 based on debates data, MiX votes for Glooble/Debate must be one of them
D2-8	737	Eddie	Awaclus	Sept 10 06:34:39 am	Awaclus or Glooble evil, Awaclus has fewer votes

Thank you debate. If you were me and you saw that vote count, wouldn’t you vote for the duel? It’s less clear why Glooble would vote yes.

If the duel was entered with the expectation that joth would probably win, and scum potentially contributed to that decision with their votes, then it's worth considering reversing that expectation

[A Drowned Kernel]

"joth winning" here means "doesn't get lynched"

[Debatepro]

Thank you debate. If you were me and you saw that vote count, wouldn’t you vote for the duel? It’s less clear why Glooble would vote yes.

No I wouldn’t vote yes with that vote count. Joseph and Awaclus’s reason for voting is not good. They literally are voting based on the proposition that scum thought MiX’s reads were good. I would not gamble on what is 50-100% chance of hitting town.

[Swowl]

Glooble/Joth: Who is skum?

other than people you are related to

What is this supposed to accomplish?

You’re smart - math it out

Well, the goal that it mostly seems to contribute towards is a scum victory.

How is that?

[Awaclus]

They literally are voting based on the proposition that scum thought MiX’s reads were good.

What makes you think that?

[Awaclus]

Glooble/Joth: Who is skum?

other than people you are related to

What is this supposed to accomplish?

You’re smart - math it out

Well, the goal that it mostly seems to contribute towards is a scum victory.

How is that?

By giving scum more info to use.

[Debatepro]

They literally are voting based on the proposition that scum thought MiX’s reads were good.

What makes you think that?

These.

I just completely disagree that MiX was a viable mislynch target.

I guess that's why you killed him.

MiX was town but that's no reason we should trust his reads

He got nightkilled and that's a reason we should trust his reads.

Vote: Glooble

[Awaclus]

They literally are voting based on the proposition that scum thought MiX’s reads were good.

What makes you think that?

These.

I just completely disagree that MiX was a viable mislynch target.

I guess that's why you killed him.

MiX was town but that's no reason we should trust his reads

He got nightkilled and that's a reason we should trust his reads.

Vote: Glooble

That isn't why I'm voting, that's a debunking of Glooble's attempt to defend himself after I was already voting.

[Debatepro]

That isn't why I'm voting, that's a debunking of Glooble's attempt to defend himself after I was already voting.

We can only work with reasons you provide. It is, by proxy, your reason until you provide some alternative explanation.

[Awaclus]

That isn't why I'm voting, that's a debunking of Glooble's attempt to defend himself after I was already voting.

We can only work with reasons you provide. It is, by proxy, your reason until you provide some alternative explanation.

You can also work with the reasons why Glooble is actually scum whether I provide them or not. They are my reason for voting him.

[Robz888]

Sorry, I got a few pages to catch up on.

[Joseph2302]

I'll catch up tomorrow. Still on holiday, and so been drinking too much to be coherant right now

[Robz888]

Leaning toward voting for Glooble

[Joseph2302]

Guys I'm the SK. So kill whoever and leave me, and it'll be fine

[Joseph2302]

Vote: ss
Fucking obvious that they're not town this game

[Joseph2302]

Vote: Glooble

[Joseph2302]

Vote: joth

[Joseph2302]

Vote: Glooble

[EFHW]

Who hasn't decided and what would help?

[Debatepro]

Who hasn't decided and what would help?

Vote: Joth

Eddie and MCMC

[EFHW]

4:4 now

[EFHW]

Had e stated his likely vote?

[Debatepro]

Had e stated his likely vote?

Post below has him in the vote Glooble camp, unless something has changed.
Add Robz to the list also.

IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1.

This is only true because I accused Glooble D1. But if I was really scum scared that Glooble would out me (again, and I think this is important, with no evidence whatsoever that he was scumreading me prior to me making my case), I would just skip the case and talk my team into nightkilling him night 1. Then Glooble would be dead and it wouldn't implicate me at all.

Also, if I were scum, don't you think one of my partners would be helping me out here? Do you really think the only person on my side would be Awaclus the monosyllabic?

I am on your side

[EFHW]

Right, thanks. So presumably Glooble has 6 votes, joth has 5 (assuming ADK), with two outstanding.

[EFHW]

Shoot, I counted Joseph twice. 6 for Glooble, 4 for joth, incl. ADK, and need two more.

[EFHW]

prod mcmc and Eddie

[Uncleeurope]

I have been reading, sorry. I just haven’t thought of anything to say for whatever reason.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I have been reading, sorry. I just haven’t thought of anything to say for whatever reason.

Is the reason that you're scum?

[Uncleeurope]

Yeah, as scum I often try to avoid talking as it could influence town too much.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Which way are you leaning on the duel?

[Uncleeurope]

Frustratingly, I am not leaning.

Feel free to count my vote as a vote on either side if the need arises.

[2.71828.....]

Vote: Glooble

[2.71828.....]

4:4 now

I should really look at vote counts. Did I seriously just hammer because I was lazy and just thought this was correct?

[Joseph2302]

4:4 now

I should really look at vote counts. Did I seriously just hammer because I was lazy and just thought this was correct?

It's 7 to lynch, so guess you did

Although you could always be scum trying to fake the derphammer......

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 2.5

Glooble (5): Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e
jothenoah (3): Glooble, EFHW, Debatepro

Not Voting (4): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on September 18, 05:00 forum time.

[2.71828.....]

Ok, that clarifies things.

[2.71828.....]

I think Glooble is the clear choice here. Jotheonah i think the Datswan case is good, and the only evidence against joth circumstancial at best.

[Joseph2302]

Ok, that clarifies things.

Oh, the 6 or 7 votes must have included people with preference to vote Glooble

[Joseph2302]

And as this wasn't actually a derphammer, town points for e for being aware about it. I think scum might derphammer and claim it was an accident, but saying they may have derphammered when they didn't seems less likely

[Robz888]

Vote: Glooble

[Debatepro]

Vote: Glooble

Unannounced  L-1.

Day 2 Summary

Vote#	Post#	---By---	---For---	Notes
D2-1	636	Awaclus	Glooble	NR
D2-2	671	e	Awaclus	NR-Scummy and opportunistic (673)
D2-3	684	ADK	e	NR
D2-4	685	ADK	Glooble	NR
D2-5	687	Joth	Robz	Pointing others on Pubby wagon, lame, Robz scummiest on wagon IMO
D2-6	701	Glooble	ADK	Awaclus, ADK, Robz voted for pubby, mix, and glooble. (701)
D2-7	726	Joseph	Glooble	725 based on debates data, MiX votes for Glooble/Debate must be one of them
D2-8	737	Eddie	Awaclus	Awaclus or Glooble evil, Awaclus has fewer votes
D2-9	790	Glooble	Joth	DUEL: Glooble V Joth
D2-10	791	Awaclus	Glooble	NR
D2-11	795	Joth	Glooble	BC
D2-12	811	Joseph	Joth	NR
D2-13	826	EFHW	Joth	Glooble case reads gambit
D2-14	848	DatSwan	Glooble	Weak case for Town!Joth (847) & Scum!Glooble (849)
D2-15	883	Joseph	Glooble	NR
D2-16	884	Joseph	Joth	NR
D2-17	885	Joseph	Glooble	NR
D2-18	887	Debatepro	Joth	NR - except all the other posts about why joth is the right vote.
D2-19	899	e	Glooble	NR
D2-20	907	Robz	Glooble	Unannounced L1

[A Drowned Kernel]

My head says glooble, my gut says joth. I'll do a reread tonight if no one's hammered

[Glooble]

My head says glooble, my gut says joth. I'll do a reread tonight if no one's hammered

Pro tip: rereads are more fun if you get hammered first.

If joth ends up being town, I’ve learned a valuable lesson about not tunneling him based his read of me, but if joth turns out to be scum you have to learn a valuable lesson about not knocking down the lynch he sets up for you.

[Debatepro]

@Eddie- Did you vote yes or no to the duel?

[Awaclus]

@Eddie- Did you vote yes or no to the duel?

Why is this important to know?

[Debatepro]

@Eddie- Did you vote yes or no to the duel?

Why is this important to know?

Unless he is channeling someone who doesn't share information, it's not like town!eddie to be obscure, unhelpful, or even try a little. Granted, he's a sub. 

[Uncleeurope]

I abstained from voting.

I am kind of in Datswan’s camp in that I don’t really have a strong preference one way or the other and am worried that this flip might influence my read on the other wrongly.

So we will see how this works out, I guess I am mainly curious about the powers but dislike duels.

So I voted yes for the power and no for the duel by not voting.

It makes sense, I promise.

This decision is completely different from voting yes for the duel and no for the power.

[2.71828.....]

^^scum^^

[2.71828.....]

Seriously, what a cop-out

[A Drowned Kernel]

Seriously, what a cop-out

It's so outlandish that I'm nearly certain that Eddie's town

[EFHW]

Are you abstaining from voting now, too?

[Uncleeurope]

Yeah, I’ll vote later.

Willing to hammer either of them at the moment, as mentioned earlier.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Did a sort of skimmy re-read, mostly just reading joth's and glooble's posts

Intent to hammer glooble

[Swowl]

Did a sort of skimmy re-read, mostly just reading joth's and glooble's posts

Intent to hammer glooble

hold up plz. we have time and I have some questions for some pplz.

[Swowl]

#1 - I abstained from voting.

#2 - I am kind of in Datswan’s camp in that I don’t really have a strong preference one way or the other and am worried that this flip might influence my read on the other wrongly.

#3 - So I voted yes for the power and no for the duel by not voting.

#4 - It makes sense, I promise.

This decision is completely different from voting yes for the duel and no for the power.

Yeah, I’ll vote later.

Willing to hammer either of them at the moment, as mentioned earlier.

#1 - Either you thought one was 1 skum, 2 were skum, or none were skum. You not voting lowers the thresh hold of needed yes votes to *potentially* only 5 with 3 skum in the game. So, if you thought there was 1 skum... ok I guess as like an almost trap plus the PR benefits... but you can't follow that up with "I will vote for anyone". If you thought both were skum, then it would check out I suppose... except your lack of effort on the day (and of course claiming the no vote) really is weird there. If you thought both were town it is just dumb.

#2 - No you are not. People are not allowed in this camp that throw out willy nilly "I will vote for anyone" crap. Trust me, I sell the tents. I DO have a preference either way. I made that like abundantly clear in my 2 wall posts. I simply think I am picking between a "skum and a hard place". But when chosen to pick, I am made it pretty cut that I am on Glooble.

#3 - This is not how that works. By not voting you lowered the thresh hold of needed yes votes to make the duel happen. Also, there cannot be a PR without a duel. So, even in a world where you can word that differently... it just doesn't make sense. You need to vote in a fashion that favors the duel in order to favor the PR, and vice versa.

#4 - No. None of it does.

[Swowl]

Seriously, what a cop-out

^^scum^^

If E actually thought this, they would of torn eddie apart. This is not a Town!E response to this situation.

[Swowl]

My head says glooble, my gut says joth. I'll do a reread tonight if no one's hammered

Did a sort of skimmy re-read, mostly just reading joth's and glooble's posts

Intent to hammer glooble

What soothed your gut from the re read?

[Swowl]

wow there is like nothing that has been said today, that is all I have.

[2.71828.....]

Seriously, what a cop-out

^^scum^^

If E actually thought this, they would of torn eddie apart. This is not a Town!E response to this situation.

I thought it was pretty self-explanatory myself. Eddie is playing the classic role of "high road town" as in his decision to not participate somehow helps town.

It comes from a scummy mindset not a townie one.

Also, thanks for the high opinion of my play. Now I feel as if I have to live up to it....

[2.71828.....]

wow there is like nothing that has been said today, that is all I have.

It has been a slow post-duel day, which feels like scum sitting back and watching a town member get lynched. Joth looked like a potential lynch early and only 1 person came to his defense in any real way (not me, I just stated I preferred lynching Glooble) and now Glooble is feeling like the lynch and no one is really coming to their defense.

So either partner distancing or disengaged scum knowing the outcome.

Hopefully the first, but it feels like the latter

[2.71828.....]

Vote Count 2.5

Glooble (5): Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e
jothenoah (3): Glooble, EFHW, Debatepro

Not Voting (4): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on September 18, 05:00 forum time.

Very interested in taking a good look at the not voting people here tomorrow

[2.71828.....]

All that to say, if one of the two is scum, it is likely Glooble.

[Joseph2302]

wow there is like nothing that has been said today, that is all I have.

Yes it's been a really slow day
I still think Glooble over joth, although this lack of input from people makes me think the duel may just be town/town

[EFHW]

All that to say, if one of the two is scum, it is likely Glooble.

I would draw the opposite conclusion.  The uncomplicated lynching of Glooble here suggests he is town. If you think scum is disengaged,  like you said you do think, how does that lead you to the conclusion Glooble is scum?

[EFHW]

Vote Count 2.5

Glooble (5): Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e
jothenoah (3): Glooble, EFHW, Debatepro

Not Voting (4): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on September 18, 05:00 forum time.

Very interested in taking a good look at the not voting people here tomorrow

This is misleading.  Robz voted and ADK just stated intent to hammer.

[Awaclus]

All that to say, if one of the two is scum, it is likely Glooble.

I would draw the opposite conclusion.  The uncomplicated lynching of Glooble here suggests he is town. If you think scum is disengaged,  like you said you do think, how does that lead you to the conclusion Glooble is scum?

Scum could be Glooble, you, Debatepro.

[EFHW]

All that to say, if one of the two is scum, it is likely Glooble.

I would draw the opposite conclusion.  The uncomplicated lynching of Glooble here suggests he is town. If you think scum is disengaged,  like you said you do think, how does that lead you to the conclusion Glooble is scum?

Scum could be Glooble, you, Debatepro.

Could be,  but e said his reasoning led him to conclude Glooble was scum but that's not the logical conclusion from his reasoning.

[EFHW]

Yeah, I’ll vote later.

Willing to hammer either of them at the moment, as mentioned earlier.

We don't need a hammer, it's plurality lynch. You're essentially abstaining again. I don't know if that is scummy. But for town to somehow reach the correct answer, all the town players need to do their best in making a choice.

[Debatepro]

All that to say, if one of the two is scum, it is likely Glooble.

I would draw the opposite conclusion.  The uncomplicated lynching of Glooble here suggests he is town. If you think scum is disengaged,  like you said you do think, how does that lead you to the conclusion Glooble is scum?

Scum could be Glooble, you, Debatepro.

Besides this game when was the last time you were scum? You are absolutely 33.33 percent (repeating of course) incorrect here. Adding my reads it’s 66.66. For people who have played with me in a few games, I’m probably at least the 2nd safest town read.

Town!awaclus should avoid this line and look elsewhere. If Glooble flips scum, I would still look at aweclus, he can’t possibly think Glooble’s scum partners would so visibly pile on the only alternative. It is more likely they are abstaining. Can’t discount the possibility bussing (it gets them to the end game), but I’ve played more games in a format where that is common.

[Glooble]

So right now I think it's been obvious for a few days that I am the lynch, and aside from EFHW no one is stepping up to defend me. It might be interesting, for science, If we switched some votes around to make joth the preferred lynch, then see who stepped in to try and move the pendulum back to me.

[A Drowned Kernel]

vote: glooble

[A Drowned Kernel]

My head says glooble, my gut says joth. I'll do a reread tonight if no one's hammered

Did a sort of skimmy re-read, mostly just reading joth's and glooble's posts

Intent to hammer glooble

What soothed your gut from the re read?

On a reread glooble turning on joth read as very artificial and kind of desperate. It was a narrow thing but glooble's the better lynch here

[Uncleeurope]

#1 - I abstained from voting.

#2 - I am kind of in Datswan’s camp in that I don’t really have a strong preference one way or the other and am worried that this flip might influence my read on the other wrongly.

#3 - So I voted yes for the power and no for the duel by not voting.

#4 - It makes sense, I promise.

This decision is completely different from voting yes for the duel and no for the power.

Yeah, I’ll vote later.

Willing to hammer either of them at the moment, as mentioned earlier.

#1 - Either you thought one was 1 skum, 2 were skum, or none were skum. You not voting lowers the thresh hold of needed yes votes to *potentially* only 5 with 3 skum in the game. So, if you thought there was 1 skum... ok I guess as like an almost trap plus the PR benefits... but you can't follow that up with "I will vote for anyone". If you thought both were skum, then it would check out I suppose... except your lack of effort on the day (and of course claiming the no vote) really is weird there. If you thought both were town it is just dumb.

#2 - No you are not. People are not allowed in this camp that throw out willy nilly "I will vote for anyone" crap. Trust me, I sell the tents. I DO have a preference either way. I made that like abundantly clear in my 2 wall posts. I simply think I am picking between a "skum and a hard place". But when chosen to pick, I am made it pretty cut that I am on Glooble.

#3 - This is not how that works. By not voting you lowered the thresh hold of needed yes votes to make the duel happen. Also, there cannot be a PR without a duel. So, even in a world where you can word that differently... it just doesn't make sense. You need to vote in a fashion that favors the duel in order to favor the PR, and vice versa.

#4 - No. None of it does.

1. The other option is I didn’t think either of them was more likely one or the other.

2. Okay, I will leave your camp, I’m sorry. I will go to my own, it is just lonely over here...

3. That was a joke.

4. That was the punch line.

I know me not voting looks bad, that’s fine with me, I didn’t want to vote one way or the other in case it turned out I was wrecking other town members from their plan. I preferred making an always-kinda-bad-play over a sometimes-worse play.

We agree on e, though. I kind of wanted to see who would jump on that post first chance they got.

[Debatepro]

Does the day end when plurality is reached or at the deadline¹? Also, is the plurality v. majority distinction worthless because 1. there are only two in the duel and 2. "Either one may still be lynched earlier via a majority vote."²

... Duels
...
...  [1] For the rest of the day, only votes for the two dueling players are valid. All other votes (including a no-lynch vote) will have no effect. At the end of the day¹, the player with more votes is lynched (if it is a tie, a virtual coin is flipped). Either one may still be lynched earlier via majority vote ².
...

[EFHW]

Does the day end when plurality is reached or at the deadline¹? Also, is the plurality v. majority distinction worthless because 1. there are only two in the duel and 2. "Either one may still be lynched earlier via a majority vote."²

... Duels
...
...  [1] For the rest of the day, only votes for the two dueling players are valid. All other votes (including a no-lynch vote) will have no effect. At the end of the day¹, the player with more votes is lynched (if it is a tie, a virtual coin is flipped). Either one may still be lynched earlier via majority vote ².
...

The day ends at the deadline or at majority vote. Otherwise, it would have ended a long time ago. It's not meaningless because there is no consequence of no lynch if we can't find a majority.

[jotheonah]

vote: glooble

this was the hammer, no?

[Glooble]

vote: glooble

this was the hammer, no?

I don't think it was.

[Glooble]

Wait, yes it was.

Well, good luck guys. If joth turns out to be town, I'm sorry I tunnelled so hard. If joth turns out to be scum I'm sorry I didn't tunnel harder.

[Debatepro]

Should be.

Vote Count 2.5

Glooble (5): Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e
jothenoah (3): Glooble, EFHW, Debatepro

Not Voting (4): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on September 18, 05:00 forum time.

Vote: Glooble

vote: glooble

[Debatepro]

Wait, yes it was.

Well, good luck guys. If joth turns out to be town, I'm sorry I tunnelled so hard. If joth turns out to be scum I'm sorry I didn't tunnel harder.

Have any scum reads?

[Glooble]

Wait, yes it was.

Well, good luck guys. If joth turns out to be town, I'm sorry I tunnelled so hard. If joth turns out to be scum I'm sorry I didn't tunnel harder.

Have any scum reads?

ADK for sure. I still think joth/ Robz scum team is a strong possibility. Awaclus certainly, but I'm often bad at reading Awaclus.

Feeling towny on you, EFHW, and Swan. Slightly less towny but still a little towny on e. Null on Uncle and Joseph. Who am I missing?

[jotheonah]

Crap. Glooble doesn't troll, so he's basically town. Sorry bro.

[jotheonah]

Wait, yes it was.

Well, good luck guys. If joth turns out to be town, I'm sorry I tunnelled so hard. If joth turns out to be scum I'm sorry I didn't tunnel harder.

Have any scum reads?

ADK for sure. I still think joth/ Robz scum team is a strong possibility. Awaclus certainly, but I'm often bad at reading Awaclus.

Feeling towny on you, EFHW, and Swan. Slightly less towny but still a little towny on e. Null on Uncle and Joseph. Who am I missing?

debate

[jotheonah]

Wait, yes it was.

Well, good luck guys. If joth turns out to be town, I'm sorry I tunnelled so hard. If joth turns out to be scum I'm sorry I didn't tunnel harder.

Have any scum reads?

ADK for sure. I still think joth/ Robz scum team is a strong possibility. Awaclus certainly, but I'm often bad at reading Awaclus.

Feeling towny on you, EFHW, and Swan. Slightly less towny but still a little towny on e. Null on Uncle and Joseph. Who am I missing?

debate

oh wait, you just referred to him in 2nd person

[jotheonah]

mcmc is still technically playing this game

[silverspawn]

Final Vote Count Day 2

Glooble (7): Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel
jothenoah (3): Glooble, EFHW, Debatepro

Not Voting (2): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch.


Thread locked!

[silverspawn]

C: So, Seymour. How is the duel going?

S: Well, superintendent. It looks like we are both about to kick the bucket.

C: Ah, that's a shame, Seymour. The love letter is just too powerful, isn't it?

S: No, it's too much fun. In fact, I was going to say that I might have just used up all of my potential power during the ritual!

C: Oh, you did? Well then, how about we make one last effort for you? Let's just take our lives for the both of us. Right now, you can call off the duel, but I will still allow you to return to a little place called Valhalla; and to use my full power. Do that, and I promise you that your duel will have a very, very good ending.

S: Thank you very much, superintendent! Now, come on, let's finish our story together again, you and me. The duel began almost immediately. (Seymour nods before jumping off the cliff)

[silverspawn]

Glooble has been lynched. They were a Vanilla Townie with no PRs.

Night 2 begins now and ends at September 18, 16:00 Forum Time.

[silverspawn]

Whether through ignorance or malicious intent, it was widely agreed that the missile had fallen short of its name. Those who knew that confidence was its literal fuel hadn't stirred the consensus, and so it slowly lost speed and eventually came to a halt amidst a thick sea of fog.

They departed one after another, all of them holding their breath in anticipation of the inevitable. Each carried heavy weapons in their hands, but no casualties resulted, no deaths. They were told not to breathe the fog, to not disturb the area in which they were searching or even to approach any of the downed vessels—a warning they carried as a precaution, that they wouldn't enter the fog until the last possible moment. Â They went over all of it later, their lives, their hope, and their future all on display. They were there the night before to discuss the mission, though they had chosen not to share it. Even then, they weren't sure how they would respond if they could not speak. The first day had been tense, though they were aware of that. Each man had carried with him a small gun—a gun that could be loaded with only ammo, a gun that could not be used for any of the usual tasks of war; that weapon was their means of communication, and each man's voice was carefully selected and regulated.

The missile tugged along with what little strength it had left. On its side, it flashed the words

Bend me into the arms of the dead
Like the ancient gods, I
And then she begins to fall
Into the blackness and I, she, her
Into the air
A few feet away from the windows
A few feet away
Shuffling up and out of the night
To the great blue sky
I walk with her
To the world I am going to make
To live, and when it's finished we are
There, out on the world
A little girl's eyes are wide
A little boy's eyes are wide
A little boy's eyes are wide
In the distance
The little girl's eyes are wide
I look to the sky and
The light seems to be
Out of the dark
She's looking to the sky
She's looking to the sky

[silverspawn]

Day 3 start!

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (11): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 3 ends at September 20, 15:00 Forum Time.

[A Drowned Kernel]

vote: robz

[A Drowned Kernel]

Let's try that again

vote: robz

[Joseph2302]

Wait, so no NK- that's interesting. And hopefully good information too

[Joseph2302]

And important question is whether we think Glooble/joth duel was town/town or town/scum

[Uncleeurope]

A more important question is: “Do we think joth is scum?”

Or even better: “Who is scum?”

[2.71828.....]

No NK is awesome.

I think our PR recipient should claim. I don't think our JK needs to claim anything though. Too many variables surround that to 100% pin down scum.

[2.71828.....]

A more important question is: “Do we think joth is scum?”

And important question is whether we think Glooble/joth duel was town/town or town/scum

Those are literally the same questions

[2.71828.....]

Bah, quoted in the wrong order.

But the generic "who is scum" can be answered

Vote: Eddie

[Uncleeurope]

Vote: e

Done and done.

We did it, boys.

[Uncleeurope]

A more important question is: “Do we think joth is scum?”

And important question is whether we think Glooble/joth duel was town/town or town/scum

Those are literally the same questions

Trying to assess a duel from that perspective seems much less likely to be as helpful as assessing joth on his own behavior.

[Awaclus]

A more important question is: “Do we think joth is scum?”

And important question is whether we think Glooble/joth duel was town/town or town/scum

Those questions are important mostly for scum.

[Joseph2302]

A more important question is: “Do we think joth is scum?”

And important question is whether we think Glooble/joth duel was town/town or town/scum

Those are literally the same questions

Trying to assess a duel from that perspective seems much less likely to be as helpful as assessing joth on his own behavior.

Okay sure. Vote: joth
I don't think it was town/town yesterday, and Glooble just seemed like an easy mislynch

[Joseph2302]

No NK is awesome.

I think our PR recipient should claim. I don't think our JK needs to claim anything though. Too many variables surround that to 100% pin down scum.

I agree the PR person should claim

[A Drowned Kernel]

Pr should only claim if they have useful info, it might be a bad idea to give scum an idea of what to expect of the prs

[Uncleeurope]

But town would get a good idea of what to expect as well, no?

[EFHW]

But town would get a good idea of what to expect as well, no?

It would help us know if duels are worth it.  I  can't think of another reason.

[Uncleeurope]

That is what I was implying.

In theory we let all players know of duels are worth it with sharing, plus out a result of some kind.

This can help both sides in the duel voting, but there are more town, so that leans us on first glance.

That being said baddies know whether a duel is worth it to them in a glance, knowing stuff about the roles helps them know more.

So it’s the classic conundrum of “sharing helps town in that there are more of us to use the info but it helps baddies a touch more than it helps good guys but there are fewer of them to use it.” In theory anyway.

The added perk of a known result could be pretty significant depending on what kind of result it is.

On a night with no deaths more possibilities for helpful info exists.

Soooo... I dunno.

I honestly don’t know which is better.

I’m just bored and trying to burn time with typing at this point.

[EFHW]

A more important question is: “Do we think joth is scum?”

And important question is whether we think Glooble/joth duel was town/town or town/scum

Those questions are important mostly for scum.

Scum already know joth's alignment.

[Debatepro]

There are 5 players who have voted for all three of the confirmed town players (Pubby, MiX, Glooble). They also voted for each confirmed town player, prior to the 2nd duel being announced.
1. ADK
2. Awaclus
3. Joseph
4. Joth
5. Robz

If we just isolate day one votes for confirmed town the list is:
1. ADK
2. Joth
3. Robz

Awaclus had the very first vote on day two for glooble and joseph also votes glooble on the seventh vote of day 2 which is before the glooble v joth duel was announced.

[jotheonah]

I’m honestly kind of lost right now. Glad we averted a nightkill somehow, but majorly second-guessing all my reads in light of the Glooble thing. Need to re-read.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I’m honestly kind of lost right now.

Vote for robz

[Awaclus]

Scum already know joth's alignment.

They don't know what we think of it.

[Joseph2302]

So no NK presumably means that it was blocked
So either our JK stopped it, or the one shot PR had some role block/defending ability

[jotheonah]

So no NK presumably means that it was blocked
So either our JK stopped it, or the one shot PR had some role block/defending ability

or the jk was the target. our jk has a 1-shot passive bulletproof.

Joseph gets townpoints for forgetting about that though.

[Awaclus]

Joseph gets townpoints for forgetting about that though.

Why? It's trivial for scum to know about the BP but choose not to say it.

[2.71828.....]

It's a one shot power. There is a limited list of PRs that really work with that: cop, doc, tracker, vig, BP, etc.

I think scum knows the PR will always be bad for them (unless it is like a vig and town kills town... But given the setup I doubt vig is on the list).

The only real consideration that needs to be had is if the we think the PR went to town with a true result/action or scum with a fake one.

But it should be claimed. Acknowledge that some results don't actually mean a whole lot (tracker for example has limited utility with 3 scum alive) but the data point is important for town.

[Joseph2302]

Okay screw it, I was hoping someone would fake claim and out themselves as scum. But it hasn't happened, so I'm going to claim:

I'm a one shot neapolitan, and the result I got was that joth is not a VT
Having done the maths, this means there's a ~75% chance that they're scum.

And i really hope i haven't just outed our JK here

[Joseph2302]

Because either joth is scum or JK. If he's JK, scum might know he's JK now (if they shot him last night)

And if he's scum, this is good information.

Btw, i chose joth because knowing the makeup of the duel yesterday (town/town or scum/town) would be good information for today

[Debatepro]

Because either joth is scum or JK. If he's JK, scum might know he's JK now (if they shot him last night)

And if he's scum, this is good information.

Btw, i chose joth because knowing the makeup of the duel yesterday (town/town or scum/town) would be good information for today

1. Scum killing Joth doesn’t make sense to me. He was the alternative to Glooble and this a good candidate for a mislynch if he was Town.
2. If Joth was the JK, I don’t think he so visibly makes the D1 case against Glooble. That had the huge potential of backfiring and drawing mislynch attention.

[Debatepro]

I’m honestly kind of lost right now.

Vote for robz

What are your thoughts on:
1. Duel result, voters for Glooble, abstainers
2. Absence of a NK
3. Joseph’s claim and result

Who are the players on your list as potential scum?

[jotheonah]

Okay screw it, I was hoping someone would fake claim and out themselves as scum. But it hasn't happened, so I'm going to claim:

I'm a one shot neapolitan, and the result I got was that joth is not a VT
Having done the maths, this means there's a ~75% chance that they're scum.

And i really hope i haven't just outed our JK here

Guess what? You have!

[jotheonah]

I was feeling so good about getting out of that duel alive too. I guess I might as well claim my targets?

[Joseph2302]

Okay screw it, I was hoping someone would fake claim and out themselves as scum. But it hasn't happened, so I'm going to claim:

I'm a one shot neapolitan, and the result I got was that joth is not a VT
Having done the maths, this means there's a ~75% chance that they're scum.

And i really hope i haven't just outed our JK here

Guess what? You have!

Least surprising claim ever

[jotheonah]

*alive and unclaimed.

Damn, like, I don’t think you misplayed here but this is super-unfortunate all around.

[jotheonah]

I just landed from the worst red eye ever, after a five-hour delay, so I’m not in the best mental space to make my claim. I didn’t breadcrumb but being JK was the real reason for my D1 yes vote. I decided that a duel would be good since it would guarantee I wouldn’t die and as the only PR that felt significant — in effect, the duel would have eliminated the worst case scenario, the lynch of our only full-time PR.

But that put me in a tough position because I had publicly backed both vote claiming and no-voting. So I had to make up a reason, which was sheeping Glooble’s case, which of course turned out to not even be on one of the people in the duel!

[jotheonah]

I didn’t want to lie as town at least about my vote so I had to tell a half-truth.

My case on Glooble was 100% sincere at the time. I think I’m retrospect it’s easy to say a PR shouldn’t put himself out there like that, but before I did it I did not think it would be received the way it was! I was making a case, figures it would either gain traction or not

[jotheonah]

2. If Joth was the JK, I don’t think he so visibly makes the D1 case against Glooble. That had the huge potential of backfiring and drawing mislynch attention.

Also I made this exact case yesterday only as a case for why I couldn’t be scum, so you really can’t have it both ways.

[jotheonah]

I targeted ADK night 1 and Swan night 2.

[Robz888]

I guess we should all acknowledge that he have consumed this news, on the off chance we have some other JK claim.

[Joseph2302]

Yes i have. Ffs i really hope joth is lying

I was sure my result meant joth was scum, it's really shit if I've outed our only PR

OTOH, if joth is telling the truth, then swan is scum? As JK blocked the scum from killing? Unless of course scum shot joth (but people said that was less likely)

[jotheonah]

Swan could also have been the NK target. I basically have been using my power as more of a doctor for the early game for mathy reasons.

Basically, with no other PRs in play, a major downside of jailkeeping townreads goes away.

If you JK scum, EVEN IF YOU’RE RIGHT, it has a 2/3 chance of not doing anything. Whereas if you JK town, all you have to do is correctly ID the nightkill, which seemed a lot easier. And the upside is that if your townread IS scum they’re probably among the best hidden scum and therefore the most likely to be doing the kill. The downside is you get less info from targeting townreads in a way.

So yeah. Swan is either scum or scum targeted him (or they targeted me). ADK is either town or scum who didn’t happen to do the kill.

[2.71828.....]

Yeah, interesting situation.

The person I actually trust the most in this situation is Joseph. Scum don't actually get to use the PR, and to out the JK as scum just doesn't happen here.

But then for joth we need to wait for everyone to show up, and with no counter claim then I trust him as well.

Which then points suspicion to Datswan with the missing NK.

[2.71828.....]

Swan could also have been the NK target. I basically have been using my power as more of a doctor for the early game for mathy reasons.

Basically, with no other PRs in play, a major downside of jailkeeping townreads goes away.

If you JK scum, EVEN IF YOU’RE RIGHT, it has a 2/3 chance of not doing anything. Whereas if you JK town, all you have to do is correctly ID the nightkill, which seemed a lot easier. And the upside is that if your townread IS scum they’re probably among the best hidden scum and therefore the most likely to be doing the kill. The downside is you get less info from targeting townreads in a way.

So yeah. Swan is either scum or scum targeted him (or they targeted me). ADK is either town or scum who didn’t happen to do the kill.

And then there is this as well.

[Joseph2302]

Important: if joth isn't the JK, can the real JK please come out? Otherwise we're going to assume that joth is town

[Uncleeurope]

Yeah, interesting situation.

The person I actually trust the most in this situation is Joseph. Scum don't actually get to use the PR, and to out the JK as scum just doesn't happen here.

But then for joth we need to wait for everyone to show up, and with no counter claim then I trust him as well.

Which then points suspicion to Datswan with the missing NK.

I don’t like this post. Am I biased in that I am reading every e post as bad? Yes. Does that make e good? No.

[jotheonah]

Wait a minute...

Would scum even come up positive in a neopolitan investigation? They’re all vanilla goons...

[A Drowned Kernel]

I’m honestly kind of lost right now.

Vote for robz

What are your thoughts on:
1. Duel result, voters for Glooble, abstainers
2. Absence of a NK
3. Joseph’s claim and result

Who are the players on your list as potential scum?

1. My reads on glooble (and I'm now guessing joth) were way off, I'm thinking scum is either entirely or largely in the glooble votes and abstainers
2. Caused by the JK, and pointless and dangerous to talk about in the absence of a JK claim (which we now have, and can now talk about)
3. I believe joth's claim in the absence of a counterclaim, joth being the kill seems like to most likely explanation for the no kill right now but I'll have to reread datswan

Joseph is an IC if joth is really the JK (scum would have had to completely guess on that result, which they definitely don't do) and probably town if joth is scum (this would be an odd gambit if they were partners). You're town because you more-or-less townslipped yesterday (I didn't point it out because it was also a slip of you not being the JK). Awaclus looks a lot scummier if he doesn't counterclaim because my read on him was based on my belief that he was breadcrumbing being the JK. Those are probably my strongest reads, everyone else is up for grabs.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Wait a minute...

Would scum even come up positive in a neopolitan investigation? They’re all vanilla goons...

If silver is following the mafia wiki role, neapolitan gets a result of (VT/not VT). Vanilla cop is the role you're thinking of

[Joseph2302]

Wait a minute...

Would scum even come up positive in a neopolitan investigation? They’re all vanilla goons...

Yes because it tells you whether they are Vanilla Townie or not

As described on Mafia scum

ppe: 1

[Debatepro]

...You're town because you more-or-less townslipped yesterday (I didn't point it out because it was also a slip of you not being the JK).

What was the townslip you identified?

[A Drowned Kernel]

...You're town because you more-or-less townslipped yesterday (I didn't point it out because it was also a slip of you not being the JK).

What was the townslip you identified?

You speculated that scum might have killed mix because they thought he was the JK. But the JK is bulletproof, scum is going to avoid hitting the JK in the early game unless they're close to 100% they have the right person and they can use their strongman shot. The fact that you weren't thinking about it in those terms showed you were thinking about it from a (vanilla) town perspective. Not completely unfakeable, but enough to have convinced me that you were probably town.

[Uncleeurope]

On that note, it is important to consider, however unlikely, that baddies targeted Joth as JK then used the Neop shot as a way to put them.

So Joseph isn’t entirely in the clear.

[Joseph2302]

On that note, it is important to consider, however unlikely, that baddies targeted Joth as JK then used the Neop shot as a way to put them.

So Joseph isn’t entirely in the clear.

If scum get the PR, they don't get to use the ability, as per the setup

[Debatepro]

On that note, it is important to consider, however unlikely, that baddies targeted Joth as JK then used the Neop shot as a way to put them.

So Joseph isn’t entirely in the clear.

I don't think scum get to use the pr, they just get to know what it is. Maybe im misreading your post. It's possible they "fake claim" and use it to clear clear themselves. In this case, it would be tough to pull that off, since they don't know the JK.

[Uncleeurope]

I meant for the NK, hence the no death.

Suggesting he was JK.

Then pretended they had used the shot they didn’t use.

[mcmcsalot]

I’m here! Sorry I suck so much.

I am not the jk.

The whole scum!joseph conspiracy theory is actually pretty interesting, if scum gets the neopolitan, they shoot joth, and joth doesn’t die, they don’t know if joth is the jk or the jk target.

If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth turns out to be a vt who was targeted by the jk, then joth looks like lying scum. Even if the jk claims they targeted joth no one knows if joth is the killer or the kill recipient.

If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth is the jk, then joseph gets pseudo ic status for a correct usage of the power, joth gets revealed as the actual jk (whereas previously scum wouldn’t know if joth was jk or jk’s target.

Actually this is a super beneficial and safe claim for scum to make if they did indeed get the neopolitan.

[mcmcsalot]

assuming no one counter claims joth or joseph:

The night kill tonight was either on joth, on datswan, or performed by datswan against anyone. Those are the only options.

The only scenario where joseph is scum I think is where joth was the nk target.

[EFHW]

I am not the jk. More to say later.

[Awaclus]

I'm not the JK.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I’m here! Sorry I suck so much.

I am not the jk.

The whole scum!joseph conspiracy theory is actually pretty interesting, if scum gets the neopolitan, they shoot joth, and joth doesn’t die, they don’t know if joth is the jk or the jk target.

If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth turns out to be a vt who was targeted by the jk, then joth looks like lying scum. Even if the jk claims they targeted joth no one knows if joth is the killer or the kill recipient.

If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth is the jk, then joseph gets pseudo ic status for a correct usage of the power, joth gets revealed as the actual jk (whereas previously scum wouldn’t know if joth was jk or jk’s target.

Actually this is a super beneficial and safe claim for scum to make if they did indeed get the neopolitan.

Yeah but if in that scenario we do end up lynching joth, then we find out Joseph is lying and lynch him. Scum would be setting themselves up for a one-for-one trade just to try and out the JK

[A Drowned Kernel]

Also if scum got the role and wanted to lie about it, they could have just picked something other than that Neapolitan

[Debatepro]

Also if scum got the role and wanted to lie about it, they could have just picked something other than that Neapolitan

Hmmm...Why would you ever do that? Wouldn't there be a chance that Neap would still be one of the PRs available in future duels.

[Awaclus]

Also if scum got the role and wanted to lie about it, they could have just picked something other than that Neapolitan

Hmmm...Why would you ever do that? Wouldn't there be a chance that Neap would still be one of the PRs available in future duels.

There would, but it would be extremely small, given that we might not even have a duel every day, some of the duel PRs will go to scum, and there are 23495872394857234985 different roles that could possibly be on the list.

[mcmcsalot]

I’m here! Sorry I suck so much.

I am not the jk.

The whole scum!joseph conspiracy theory is actually pretty interesting, if scum gets the neopolitan, they shoot joth, and joth doesn’t die, they don’t know if joth is the jk or the jk target.

If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth turns out to be a vt who was targeted by the jk, then joth looks like lying scum. Even if the jk claims they targeted joth no one knows if joth is the killer or the kill recipient.

If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth is the jk, then joseph gets pseudo ic status for a correct usage of the power, joth gets revealed as the actual jk (whereas previously scum wouldn’t know if joth was jk or jk’s target.

Actually this is a super beneficial and safe claim for scum to make if they did indeed get the neopolitan.

Yeah but if in that scenario we do end up lynching joth, then we find out Joseph is lying and lynch him. Scum would be setting themselves up for a one-for-one trade just to try and out the JK

Oh right, if joseph is scum and joth is a vt who was protected by the jk the jk could stay silent let joth get lynched then joseph gets lynched and it’s a 1 for 1 without even burning the jk.

Yea I highly doubt joseph is scum.

[2.71828.....]

I’m here! Sorry I suck so much.

I am not the jk.

The whole scum!joseph conspiracy theory is actually pretty interesting, if scum gets the neopolitan, they shoot joth, and joth doesn’t die, they don’t know if joth is the jk or the jk target.

If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth turns out to be a vt who was targeted by the jk, then joth looks like lying scum. Even if the jk claims they targeted joth no one knows if joth is the killer or the kill recipient.

If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth is the jk, then joseph gets pseudo ic status for a correct usage of the power, joth gets revealed as the actual jk (whereas previously scum wouldn’t know if joth was jk or jk’s target.

Actually this is a super beneficial and safe claim for scum to make if they did indeed get the neopolitan.

Yeah but if in that scenario we do end up lynching joth, then we find out Joseph is lying and lynch him. Scum would be setting themselves up for a one-for-one trade just to try and out the JK

Oh right, if joseph is scum and joth is a vt who was protected by the jk the jk could stay silent let joth get lynched then joseph gets lynched and it’s a 1 for 1 without even burning the jk.

Yea I highly doubt joseph is scum.

And just as I was starting to like your conspiracy theory you poke a huge hole in it.

But ADK is right, no need for scum to gamble at this point, they just got through 2 mislynches

[2.71828.....]

Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.

So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.

[jotheonah]

Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.

So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.

So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?

[Joseph2302]

Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.

So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.

So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?

Sounds reasonable to me

[2.71828.....]

We also need to talk about dueling at some point. I feel like we have enough information for a good lynch without a duel.

But I also think another PR would be very useful. While we regrettable outed our JK, the way it happened basically have us an IC in the process. Which is nice.

[2.71828.....]

Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.

So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.

So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?

Sounds reasonable to me

I mean, I might be inclined to say yes to a duel if it were say, Joseph v swan.

A duel like that requires a majority vote to lynch the non-IC player.

Which is basically like a lynch we just get another PR out of it

[2.71828.....]

There only issue is it is a secret ballot lynch where scum can lie about where they voted.

And it doesn't give the non-IC player a real chance to defend themselves

[Debatepro]

There only issue is it is a secret ballot lynch where scum can lie about where they voted.

And it doesn't give the non-IC player a real chance to defend themselves

There he is, where have "you" been.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.

So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.

So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?

At this point I would only vote for duels that included either of you if the other person was a duel where I would vote yes if the duel was me vs. them (there are such people)

[2.71828.....]

There only issue is it is a secret ballot lynch where scum can lie about where they voted.

And it doesn't give the non-IC player a real chance to defend themselves

There he is, where have "you" been.

I am confused. Are you calling me scum here? The "you" is throwing me off. Or are you calling me town? Or neither? I just don't know.

[Debatepro]

Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.

So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.

So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?

At this point I would only vote for duels that included either of you if the other person was a duel where I would vote yes if the duel was me vs. them (there are such people)

and "them" are?

[Debatepro]

There only issue is it is a secret ballot lynch where scum can lie about where they voted.

And it doesn't give the non-IC player a real chance to defend themselves

There he is, where have "you" been.

I am confused. Are you calling me scum here? The "you" is throwing me off. Or are you calling me town? Or neither? I just don't know.

Your play has been unusual. It made me question if you were a player on teamtown. Today, I am seeing more posts in the null to town range, instead of the null to scum range.

[2.71828.....]

There only issue is it is a secret ballot lynch where scum can lie about where they voted.

And it doesn't give the non-IC player a real chance to defend themselves

There he is, where have "you" been.

I am confused. Are you calling me scum here? The "you" is throwing me off. Or are you calling me town? Or neither? I just don't know.

Your play has been unusual. It made me question if you were a player on teamtown. Today, I am seeing more posts in the null to town range, instead of the null to scum range.

Oh, ok. That's nice.

[jotheonah]

Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.

So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.

So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?

At this point I would only vote for duels that included either of you if the other person was a duel where I would vote yes if the duel was me vs. them (there are such people)

This seems nice in theory but in practice it just gives you wiggle room to vote however you want.

[Robz888]

Joth and Joseph are town. I think it's okay to vote for a duel that includes one of them as long as the other person is someone we are okay lynching (to get the PR). If the duel is the two of them, then no.

If the duel is like, Joseph vs ADK or E, I might be fine with it.

I could easily see Swan being scum who does the kill, but I could ALSO see him as the NK, since it wouldn't fundamentally change the dynamics of the game much and the dynamics of the game (until this series of claims at least) was decent for scum.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.

So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.

So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?

At this point I would only vote for duels that included either of you if the other person was a duel where I would vote yes if the duel was me vs. them (there are such people)

This seems nice in theory but in practice it just gives you wiggle room to vote however you want.

I will vote however I want, thanks

[A Drowned Kernel]

Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.

So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.

So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?

At this point I would only vote for duels that included either of you if the other person was a duel where I would vote yes if the duel was me vs. them (there are such people)

and "them" are?

robz, mcmc, and e come to mind

[2.71828.....]

Joth and Joseph are town. I think it's okay to vote for a duel that includes one of them as long as the other person is someone we are okay lynching (to get the PR). If the duel is the two of them, then no.

If the duel is like, Joseph vs ADK or E, I might be fine with it.

I could easily see Swan being scum who does the kill, but I could ALSO see him as the NK, since it wouldn't fundamentally change the dynamics of the game much and the dynamics of the game (until this series of claims at least) was decent for scum.

I could easily see this post coming from scum!Robz

Basically dining up everything everyone has said and starting a few other obvious things. Plus the obvious OMGUS perspective of me being in his top 2 scum reads.

I can join team vote: Robz

[A Drowned Kernel]

Actually given that the duel yesterday was town vs. town, it's pretty unlikely that scum just didn't vote, so maybe take mcmc off that list

[2.71828.....]

Actually given that the duel yesterday was town vs. town, it's pretty unlikely that scum just didn't vote, so maybe take mcmc off that list

This doesn't make sense. I would think in a TvT scum votes yes. Abstaining doesn't make sense

[jotheonah]

Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.

So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.

So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?

At this point I would only vote for duels that included either of you if the other person was a duel where I would vote yes if the duel was me vs. them (there are such people)

This seems nice in theory but in practice it just gives you wiggle room to vote however you want.

I will vote however I want, thanks

What I'm getting at is this post sounds like it's committing to some kind of vote but it basically isn't.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Actually given that the duel yesterday was town vs. town, it's pretty unlikely that scum just didn't vote, so maybe take mcmc off that list

This doesn't make sense. I would think in a TvT scum votes yes. Abstaining doesn't make sense

What I mean is, with a TvT duel, scum doesn't end the day not voting like mcmc did

[A Drowned Kernel]

What I'm getting at is this post sounds like it's committing to some kind of vote but it basically isn't.

I promise you that I will place some kind of vote on the duel

[2.71828.....]

Actually given that the duel yesterday was town vs. town, it's pretty unlikely that scum just didn't vote, so maybe take mcmc off that list

This doesn't make sense. I would think in a TvT scum votes yes. Abstaining doesn't make sense

What I mean is, with a TvT duel, scum doesn't end the day not voting like mcmc did

Ah, ok. I thought you were talking about voting yes or no on whether the duel was going to happen. That clarifies things.

[2.71828.....]

What I'm getting at is this post sounds like it's committing to some kind of vote but it basically isn't.

I promise you that I will place some kind of vote on the duel

Thanks, you are the best

[2.71828.....]

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (11): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 3 ends at September 20, 15:00 Forum Time.

So we have another 24 hours (ish) before the duel starts.  I am still pretty much firmly in the "yes" camp, especially if it is in the non-IC group of people.

[2.71828.....]

Where did everyone go? You are all scum for leaving. I am here ready to react to everything.

Also, slightly D A MA

[mail-mi]

/tag

[Swowl]

OK. Events by Timeline:

Joseph claims Neo Cop, claiming to target Joth and getting a not VT result.
Joth claims JK.
Joth then says they targeted ADK night 1 and Swan night 2.
We then had no Night Kill happen.


So what are the possible things that could be happening:

1) They could both be telling the truth - Joseph got the Neo shot, used it on Joth. Joth JKd Swan. Skum tried to kill Swan.

2) Joseph is skum, Joth is JK - Skum was informed that the Neo shot (or anything really) was to be assigned, but they got the info instead. Joseph claims on Joth, and just happens to accidentally pick the player that is actually the JK.

3) Joseph is town, Joth is skum - Joseph got the neo shot ability, used it on Joth. Joth claims JK as skum hoping to out the real JK in the process.

4) They are both skum - Skum gets the info of the power. Joseph claims neo on Joth. They duke it out hoping to pull out the JK. The JK assumedly claims, we lynch Joth, Joseph gets town points X 1000. If JK doesn't claim, it still works. No matter who is lynched, the other person looks good.


---1) I think this is very unlikely. It is mainly based on just pure chance of shit happening, but I mean that is just like the stars aligning.

---2) This could be a thing. Skum gets the info of the power, picks a player that they think is safe (Joth would be prime as they are the only player alive that would of had any reason at all to claim JK at any point), but then it backfires. It also has the added benefit for skum of potentially having a quick JK claim come out. Like Joseph says Joth is not VT, then JK comes out and says "then they are for sure skum, because I am the JK".

---3) This could also be a thing. Joseph gets the shot, uses it, hits skum... skum acts accordingly.

---4) This is like #1 in far off worldness... but should not be ignored. At this stage, especially after the kill was blocked, skum could be worried the JK block will be an issue as the field lessens. This set up would ensure one skum will get lynched, but it also gives a pretty good chance that the real JK comes out and then they have that player at night.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Joth could also have been the kill in scenario 1, since JK is bulletproof

[A Drowned Kernel]

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (11): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 3 ends at September 20, 15:00 Forum Time.

So we have another 24 hours (ish) before the duel starts.  I am still pretty much firmly in the "yes" camp, especially if it is in the non-IC group of people.

Would you consider voting yes if it is, say, joth vs. joseph?

[2.71828.....]

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (11): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 3 ends at September 20, 15:00 Forum Time.

So we have another 24 hours (ish) before the duel starts.  I am still pretty much firmly in the "yes" camp, especially if it is in the non-IC group of people.

Would you consider voting yes if it is, say, joth vs. joseph?

No. That is IC v ic . Don't think we want that.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (11): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 3 ends at September 20, 15:00 Forum Time.

So we have another 24 hours (ish) before the duel starts.  I am still pretty much firmly in the "yes" camp, especially if it is in the non-IC group of people.

Would you consider voting yes if it is, say, joth vs. joseph?

No. That is IC v ic . Don't think we want that.

So you have a toe out of the yes camp, at least

[EFHW]

Sorry, I've had a busy day without much time to think anything through. That's still true, actually, but I'll try.

Could Joseph be scum fakeclaiming?  This would be risky, even if they had a great intuition that joth was jk.

Could joth be fake confirming and Joseph be fake claiming? That risks joth being counterclaimed. Unwise.

There were a couple posts that struck me as strange. I'll go through again and respond to those separately.

[mcmcsalot]

snipped

Soo did you not read my post where I said basically everything you did except with less words and more accuracy...

First off scum new the nk was blocked before any claims. Secondly without any counter claim to joth he has to be town so your scenario’s 3 and 4 are basically pointless. Thirdly as adk and I have pointed out it’s very unlikely scum!joseph makes this claim on town joth as they don’t know if joth is actually jk or jk’s target. You also skipped the part of scenario 1 where you could have performed the nk.

This is really scummy

[mcmcsalot]

Sorry, I've had a busy day without much time to think anything through. That's still true, actually, but I'll try.

Could Joseph be scum fakeclaiming?  This would be risky, even if they had a great intuition that joth was jk.

Could joth be fake confirming and Joseph be fake claiming? That risks joth being counterclaimed. Unwise.

There were a couple posts that struck me as strange. I'll go through again and respond to those separately.

Same things as I said to datswan, did you just not read the last few pages or are you “thinking out loud” because you think it looks towny?

Yes joesph could be fake claiming but it’s super risky because of the world where we lynch by joth and then scum joseph.

Joth can’t be fake confirming because No one is counter claiming joth.

[mcmcsalot]

Oh and as always I don’t think it’s good for us to be discussing how we “should vote on the duel”

We can speculate all we want but once the duel is proposed we should all weigh the growing strength of a potential pr against the fact that a duel containing an ic is a lynch vote for the other player.

[mcmcsalot]

Remember joth vs player x where player x is town send us into night 7/3 which means a 30% chance town gets no pr and scum gets the pr info.

[Swowl]

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (11): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 3 ends at September 20, 15:00 Forum Time.

So we have another 24 hours (ish) before the duel starts.  I am still pretty much firmly in the "yes" camp, especially if it is in the non-IC group of people.

Would you consider voting yes if it is, say, joth vs. joseph?

no. take the plurality vote away from skum and just vote joseph.

[Swowl]

I 100% believe Joth. I think he is both the JK and did what he said he did.

I could see how Joseph could be town, but I doubt that both of Joth/Joseph are Town. And I hard lean Joseph on that pick.

Not discussing the duel selection this time around is stupid. We should discuss it. The answer should be no duel (unless it is Joseph or Joth I suppose, maybe). We have a claim and a re claim. There is no counter claim. That shit just doesn't happen. If there is the real jk sitting tight that is cool, they should imo... but the whole scenario added up just ends up in the scenario of "one of them is skum" sooooooo often.

Joth would not of said they protected me if they were skum. They would of picked someone that was not defending them then put a case on people that were defending them saying they were white knighting or whatever. OTOH I totally believe that town!Joth would proc me here as jk.


It is too late today for this to matter but tomorrow we need to consider taking the clear cut view of skum (wanting to go to the duel) away from them. Today is a perfect example of how little the value of the potential PR actually is.

[Debatepro]

Sorry, I've had a busy day without much time to think anything through. That's still true, actually, but I'll try....There were a couple posts that struck me as strange. I'll go through again and respond to those separately.

Same things as I said to datswan, did you just not read the last few pages or are you “thinking out loud” because you think it looks towny?
Yes joesph could be fake claiming but it’s super risky because of the world where we lynch by joth and then scum joseph. Joth can’t be fake confirming because No one is counter claiming joth.

snipped

Soo did you not read my post where I said basically everything you did except with less words and more accuracy... (debatepro clipping to save space) This is really scummy

Now that you seem to be all caught up, and given the tenor of the quoted posts above,  can you provide us your reads on ADK, Aweclus, and Robz? Excluding Joth and Joseph, they are the three remaining players who voted for Pubby, MiX, and Glooble (977)

[EFHW]

Upon further reflection, I agree with DatSwan that we should take a step back from assuming we now have 2 ICs. Joseph could have been trying to frame joth and got unlucky that he hit the jk.  Joth could be scum who pretty much has to claim jk or be lynched.

[Joseph2302]

I 100% believe Joth. I think he is both the JK and did what he said he did.

I could see how Joseph could be town, but I doubt that both of Joth/Joseph are Town. And I hard lean Joseph on that pick.

Not discussing the duel selection this time around is stupid. We should discuss it. The answer should be no duel (unless it is Joseph or Joth I suppose, maybe). We have a claim and a re claim. There is no counter claim. That shit just doesn't happen. If there is the real jk sitting tight that is cool, they should imo... but the whole scenario added up just ends up in the scenario of "one of them is skum" sooooooo often.

Joth would not of said they protected me if they were skum. They would of picked someone that was not defending them then put a case on people that were defending them saying they were white knighting or whatever. OTOH I totally believe that town!Joth would proc me here as jk.


It is too late today for this to matter but tomorrow we need to consider taking the clear cut view of skum (wanting to go to the duel) away from them. Today is a perfect example of how little the value of the potential PR actually is.

Vote: Datswan
Me and joth not being town/town is the biggest rubbish I've heard all game

[Joseph2302]

Upon further reflection, I agree with DatSwan that we should take a step back from assuming we now have 2 ICs. Joseph could have been trying to frame joth and got unlucky that he hit the jk.  Joth could be scum who pretty much has to claim jk or be lynched.

If joth isn't the jk, the real jk is putting us in a really terrible position.....

[EFHW]

It seems strange to me that e wants to shut down duel discussion.

But I also don't think that discussion has been very productive so far. It seems like some people want to establish a kind of consensus going in. There are a number of problems with that.

1. We'll never have the same reads.
2. Each town member making their own best decision is much more effective than some town members being influenced by others.
3. People are assuming we have 2 ICs when we don't really.

[EFHW]

Upon further reflection, I agree with DatSwan that we should take a step back from assuming we now have 2 ICs. Joseph could have been trying to frame joth and got unlucky that he hit the jk.  Joth could be scum who pretty much has to claim jk or be lynched.

If joth isn't the jk, the real jk is putting us in a really terrible position.....

What is the terrible position? Maybe they think they would lose a 1:1 vs joth, and then town  loses our jk.

[2.71828.....]

It seems strange to me that e wants to shut down duel discussion.

Where did I say that?

[2.71828.....]

We also need to talk about dueling at some point. I feel like we have enough information for a good lynch without a duel.

But I also think another PR would be very useful. While we regrettable outed our JK, the way it happened basically have us an IC in the process. Which is nice.

Are you thinking of someone else?

[EFHW]

It seems strange to me that e mcmc wants to shut down duel discussion.

FTFM, sorry e.

[EFHW]

It seems strange to me that e mcmc wants to shut down duel discussion.

FTFM, sorry e.

I do object to a lot of the things you are saying,  but that one wasn't you.

[mcmcsalot]

As I said the idea that joseph is scum is a conspiracy theory and one with flaws.

If joesph is scum he received the pr knowledge and he knows the nk target. Knowing the nk target does nothing because if he shot joth he doesn’t know if joth is the jk or vt protected by jk or if he himself was jailkept.

Once scum!joseph makes the claim he locks himself into a few scenarios:

A) Joth is the jk: this works out great, scum gets confirmation they shot at the jk and joseph gets treated as pseudo ic.

B) Joth is a vt: this is where things go bad for scum. Because in this scenario the jk doesn’t know if he blocked a kill through protection or targeting. We lynch joth and then lynch joseph when joth flips vt.

So joth is town because no one is counter claiming and joseph is probably town because if he’s scum he took a huge risk guessing that joth is the jk. The downside would be trading 1 for 1 with a vt.

Also remember the best case scenario is that joth get outed as the jk (but in this scenario joseph already guessed joth was the jk) so town gets an ic and joseph gets some towncred. But joseph could have just done any other gambit with the town pr info, or saved the reveal for later.

If scum got the pr last night I doubt they open the day with claiming what they did with it.

[mcmcsalot]

Now that you seem to be all caught up, and given the tenor of the quoted posts above,  can you provide us your reads on ADK, Aweclus, and Robz? Excluding Joth and Joseph, they are the three remaining players who voted for Pubby, MiX, and Glooble (977)

I don’t think it’s a super good idea to give blanket reads prior to the duel. I have no intention to start a case on either of those three players at this point and I should reread awaclus.

I will say I disagree strongly with E’s comments on:

Joth and Joseph are town. I think it's okay to vote for a duel that includes one of them as long as the other person is someone we are okay lynching (to get the PR). If the duel is the two of them, then no.

If the duel is like, Joseph vs ADK or E, I might be fine with it.

I could easily see Swan being scum who does the kill, but I could ALSO see him as the NK, since it wouldn't fundamentally change the dynamics of the game much and the dynamics of the game (until this series of claims at least) was decent for scum.

I could easily see this post coming from scum!Robz

Basically dining up everything everyone has said and starting a few other obvious things. Plus the obvious OMGUS perspective of me being in his top 2 scum reads.

I can join team vote: Robz

As opposed the datswan and efhw who I do think scumarized the discussions in somewhat leading posts. Datswan laid out a bunch of scenarios and over explained things to a point where it seems like he’s doing lost but he was just repeating what had been said and was also incorrect/incomplete with a decent amount of his analysis. Efhw did the scummy “ask a bunch of leading questions to look like I’m curiously pro town” but not adding any of her own insight. Robs here is actually just stating his own feeling quite susinctly. It’s not a post that’s trying to look towny it’s just relaying his own thoughts.

Town is more likely to just say “I think X” with no tie in. Scum says “I kinda think X, or boy Y is a possibility, what do we all think?”.

[Robz888]

Re the above, yes DatSwan has done that, but he always does that, right?

[EFHW]

I'm feeling mischaracterized here. You can say my specific points were wrong, but I was trying to argue against being leading, and I don't know what you mean by leading questions in particular.

My feeling about Robz is that he just repeated what others were saying without adding his own insights.  This is getting very confusing!

Why did you try to shut down duel discussion?

[EFHW]

re: speculations about what scum would or wouldn't do, this group always wants to assume best play and I just don't think you can count on that. It seems to me we've been burned a number of times by that. I don't have particulars, but this thought has often occurred to me of late.

[Robz888]

I'm feeling mischaracterized here. You can say my specific points were wrong, but I was trying to argue against being leading, and I don't know what you mean by leading questions in particular.

My feeling about Robz is that he just repeated what others were saying without adding his own insights.  This is getting very confusing!

Why did you try to shut down duel discussion?

I think my own insights are just pretty in line with other people's. I.e., Joth and Joseph are town.

[EFHW]

Remember joth vs player x where player x is town send us into night 7/3 which means a 30% chance town gets no pr and scum gets the pr info.

"Remember" always rings scum bells for me. This is true for any mislynch, regardless of duel.

[EFHW]

I'm feeling mischaracterized here. You can say my specific points were wrong, but I was trying to argue against being leading, and I don't know what you mean by leading questions in particular.

My feeling about Robz is that he just repeated what others were saying without adding his own insights.  This is getting very confusing!

Why did you try to shut down duel discussion?

I think my own insights are just pretty in line with other people's. I.e., Joth and Joseph are town.

I was more objecting to the inconsistencies in mcmc saying those things about me and DatSwan while praising your post. Your post feels null to me, not scummy in any obvious way. But are you trying to generate a perception of consensus by saying a lot of people agree with you that joth and Joseph are both town?

[Robz888]

I'm feeling mischaracterized here. You can say my specific points were wrong, but I was trying to argue against being leading, and I don't know what you mean by leading questions in particular.

My feeling about Robz is that he just repeated what others were saying without adding his own insights.  This is getting very confusing!

Why did you try to shut down duel discussion?

I think my own insights are just pretty in line with other people's. I.e., Joth and Joseph are town.

I was more objecting to the inconsistencies in mcmc saying those things about me and DatSwan while praising your post. Your post feels null to me, not scummy in any obvious way. But are you trying to generate a perception of consensus by saying a lot of people agree with you that joth and Joseph are both town?

A lot of people do agree with that. Who doesn't?

[mcmcsalot]

Remember joth vs player x where player x is town send us into night 7/3 which means a 30% chance town gets no pr and scum gets the pr info.

"Remember" always rings scum bells for me. This is true for any mislynch, regardless of duel.

Scum doesn’t have a 30% chance of getting a pr info for any mislynch regardless of duel. Specifically if we accept a duel and it results in a mislynch there is only a 70% chance of town getting a pr. Furthermore a duel with joth in it is a lynch on the other player.

I love how one post you say we shouldn’t assume best play and then the next you say my reminder that we shouldn’t accept a bad duel just because it gets us a pr is scummy.

I feel like you find my voice scummy.

[mcmcsalot]

Re the above, yes DatSwan has done that, but he always does that, right?

I guess you are right, I probably found it scummier because I had already posted most of what swan said in less words and adk had already commented on and corrected some of my analysis.

Normally I feel like swan does that before other people have done it and even if there are inconsistencies it’s net towny (most large analyzation posts have errors or omissions that the group then corrects). In this case it felt like he was late to the day, and still wanted to do that since “it’s what he does” and then ignored the prior posts.

[EFHW]

I'm feeling mischaracterized here. You can say my specific points were wrong, but I was trying to argue against being leading, and I don't know what you mean by leading questions in particular.

My feeling about Robz is that he just repeated what others were saying without adding his own insights.  This is getting very confusing!

Why did you try to shut down duel discussion?

I think my own insights are just pretty in line with other people's. I.e., Joth and Joseph are town.

I was more objecting to the inconsistencies in mcmc saying those things about me and DatSwan while praising your post. Your post feels null to me, not scummy in any obvious way. But are you trying to generate a perception of consensus by saying a lot of people agree with you that joth and Joseph are both town?

A lot of people do agree with that. Who doesn't?

DatSwan, Eddie, me. Also some people haven't stated a perspective - Awaclus, Debate. Two of the people saying they are both town are the ones in question, which is contributing to this atmosphere of apparent consensus. It is unlikely but possible that Joseph was trying to frame joth. If not, scum!joth would pretty much have to claim jk, and the real jk could have reasons for not coming forward, like I said earlier. So IC status is too much, imo.

PPE: 2

[EFHW]

Remember joth vs player x where player x is town send us into night 7/3 which means a 30% chance town gets no pr and scum gets the pr info.

"Remember" always rings scum bells for me. This is true for any mislynch, regardless of duel.

Scum doesn’t have a 30% chance of getting a pr info for any mislynch regardless of duel.

Right, my mistake. There is no pr without a duel.

I feel like you find my voice scummy.

I think that is true.

[jotheonah]

I'm beginning to think duels are bad because they give everyone, scum and town alike, an excuse to play lazy, and I am absolutely including myself in this.

[EFHW]

I'm beginning to think duels are bad because they give everyone, scum and town alike, an excuse to play lazy, and I am absolutely including myself in this.

Yeah, I came away from my "experiment" with the last duel thinking it slowed the game down too much.

[A Drowned Kernel]

The idea that scum!joseph claims a result on town!joth is nutso bonkers. Swan's big post honestly makes me think that he was the one who made the kill last night and is trying to keep other scenarios open

[jotheonah]

The idea that scum!joseph claims a result on town!joth is nutso bonkers. Swan's big post honestly makes me think that he was the one who made the kill last night and is trying to keep other scenarios open

I am also getting that vibe off of his posts but that could totally be confirmation bias.

[A Drowned Kernel]

re: speculations about what scum would or wouldn't do, this group always wants to assume best play and I just don't think you can count on that. It seems to me we've been burned a number of times by that. I don't have particulars, but this thought has often occurred to me of late.

I would say that I don't assume best play from scum but I do assume simple play. People like to come up with elaborate scenarios where scum infers X and claims Y to accomplish Z while town thinks Q, when really scum is usually just trying to keep their heads down

[Joseph2302]

The idea that scum!joseph claims a result on town!joth is nutso bonkers. Swan's big post honestly makes me think that he was the one who made the kill last night and is trying to keep other scenarios open

Agreed. This doesn't seem towny at all from DatSwan
Don't think I've ever come up with a plan this crazy and long winded, and if i were scum, I'd not have planned that joth would be alive anyway

[Joseph2302]

re: speculations about what scum would or wouldn't do, this group always wants to assume best play and I just don't think you can count on that. It seems to me we've been burned a number of times by that. I don't have particulars, but this thought has often occurred to me of late.

I would say that I don't assume best play from scum but I do assume simple play. People like to come up with elaborate scenarios where scum infers X and claims Y to accomplish Z while town thinks Q, when really scum is usually just trying to keep their heads down

Surely you've played with me enough times to know my plans are never this complex or well thought out, as town or scum? After all, i was dim enough to basically assume joth were scum from my result (as it was most likely). I should've stuck to my plan A, which was claim the non-VT result, but not name the individual

[jotheonah]

Do we wanna try vote: DatSwan?

[Joseph2302]

Vote: Datswan, though i think i am already

[Joseph2302]

Cmon guys, we can sheep the ICs

[Joseph2302]

And looks like a good JK role block last night

[Awaclus]

The idea that scum!joseph claims a result on town!joth is nutso bonkers.

It's not nutso bonkers. Worst case scenario, you out the JK who you had no idea was the JK and trade 1-for-1 with a vanilla townie, which is bad, but not terrible. Best case scenario, you out the JK who you were already suspecting might be the JK and nobody has any reason to be suspicious and you might even get town points.

[Awaclus]

That being said, Vote: DatSwan

[jotheonah]

If scum didn't have that strongman shot, I'd be more inclined to consider the gambit, since getting rid of the JK without wasting a NK might be worth it. But since they already have a way around the BP, I'm skeptical.

Here's another thing to think about. If we let a duel happen, and the PR doesn't "go to" scum, that COULD have the effect of keeping me alive, since scum strongman only goes through one layer of protection, so if they shoot me knowing a mysterious, possibly protective, PR is out there then they're taking the risk I won't die, so they might just shoot someone else.

[Joseph2302]

If scum didn't have that strongman shot, I'd be more inclined to consider the gambit, since getting rid of the JK without wasting a NK might be worth it. But since they already have a way around the BP, I'm skeptical.

Here's another thing to think about. If we let a duel happen, and the PR doesn't "go to" scum, that COULD have the effect of keeping me alive, since scum strongman only goes through one layer of protection, so if they shoot me knowing a mysterious, possibly protective, PR is out there then they're taking the risk I won't die, so they might just shoot someone else.

Unfortunately, if DatSwan is scum that means they shot you last night, and so you've used up your BP

[jotheonah]

If scum didn't have that strongman shot, I'd be more inclined to consider the gambit, since getting rid of the JK without wasting a NK might be worth it. But since they already have a way around the BP, I'm skeptical.

Here's another thing to think about. If we let a duel happen, and the PR doesn't "go to" scum, that COULD have the effect of keeping me alive, since scum strongman only goes through one layer of protection, so if they shoot me knowing a mysterious, possibly protective, PR is out there then they're taking the risk I won't die, so they might just shoot someone else.

Unfortunately, if DatSwan is scum that means they shot you last night, and so you've used up your BP

Huh? No. I mean they may have, but I JK'd Swan, so he could have shot anyone

[Joseph2302]

If scum didn't have that strongman shot, I'd be more inclined to consider the gambit, since getting rid of the JK without wasting a NK might be worth it. But since they already have a way around the BP, I'm skeptical.

Here's another thing to think about. If we let a duel happen, and the PR doesn't "go to" scum, that COULD have the effect of keeping me alive, since scum strongman only goes through one layer of protection, so if they shoot me knowing a mysterious, possibly protective, PR is out there then they're taking the risk I won't die, so they might just shoot someone else.

Unfortunately, if DatSwan is scum that means they shot you last night, and so you've used up your BP

Huh? No. I mean they may have, but I JK'd Swan, so he could have shot anyone

Oh yes course, DatSwan was the shooter....
Clearly I'm doing so well at this game...
Although even if DatSwan is scum, another scum could have shot you

[Robz888]

I am down to lynch DS, but shouldn't we wait and see if he comes up in the duel? Then we can lynch him and maybe get a PR.

[A Drowned Kernel]

The idea that scum!joseph claims a result on town!joth is nutso bonkers.

It's not nutso bonkers. Worst case scenario, you out the JK who you had no idea was the JK and trade 1-for-1 with a vanilla townie, which is bad, but not terrible. Best case scenario, you out the JK who you were already suspecting might be the JK and nobody has any reason to be suspicious and you might even get town points.

If joseph thought he was a top lynch candidate today I could maybe see it, but I don't think that was the case

[Uncleeurope]

Considering Swowl was a potential NK target I wish we could find a better lynch for today than him...

[jotheonah]

I am down to lynch DS, but shouldn't we wait and see if he comes up in the duel? Then we can lynch him and maybe get a PR.

Or maybe we miss the chance to lynch him because someone else is in the duel and it mysteriously gets voted up...

[A Drowned Kernel]

Considering Swowl was a potential NK target I wish we could find a better lynch for today than him...

Counterpoint: if swan was scum who perfomed the kill then everyone else is a potential night kill target

[jotheonah]

Swan-Eddie-Robz scum team is strangely compelling to me.

[Uncleeurope]

Hey, man I’m a Swowl sympathizer.

I just think the odds of you being the selected NK/Swan doing the NK are lower than Swowl being the NK.

Scum choosing to NK you is weird.

I could see a world where they went after Swowl.

So the conundrum I am in is: Swowl was the 1/3 of scum who targeted, or he was the person that was the NK.

You said it yourself, you targeted Swan because you were trying to use he protective part of it.

To be clear, I don’t necessarily trust Swowl, I just think there are better calls here.

[jotheonah]

Yeah, that all makes sense. I think the best use of the power is to target someone who you think is either obvtown or deep scum. It makes you more likely to hit, but it makes hitting less useful.

[jotheonah]

Still I think if Swan is also being scummy than the JK thing starts to be extra points in favor. And people are finding his response to the whole situation scummy.

[silverspawn]

Thread locked!

[silverspawn]

"r/craftbees, help
r/craftbees, pray
r/craftbees, hold
r/craftbees, pray
r/craftbees, get
r/craftbees, give (also: I'm not going to hold any raffle prizes)
r/craftbees, help
r/craftbees, buy
r/craftbees, help
r/craftbees, give (also: I'm not going to give any raffle prizes)
r/craftbees, help
r/craftbees, buy
r/craftbees, help
r/craftbees, help
r/craftbees, help
r/craftbees, help
r/craftbees, help
r/craftbees, help
r/craftbees, sell
r/craftbees, help
r/craftbees, help
r/craftbees, help
r/craftbees, help
r/craftbees, help
r/craftbees, help
r/craftbees, buy (also: I'm not going to sell any raffle-"

"SHUT UP!" the web-developer of the group suddenly shouted. "You know what's the worst thing about the missile no longer flying? The fact that we might all die? Nah. It's the fact that you got out of the psych ward, hands down.

"r/craftbees, ive seen my life flash before my eyes like a movie poster, redditor c_johnson explained. Im still in a lot of pain, having just been stabbed by a man who claimed to be on the military. Its a very scary thing that's going on right now in this country."

"I have no idea what you're talking about. You're not reading any reddit posts right now. But you and I are now going to duel to the death. Enough is enough."

"Fuck this, this isn't how any real conversation should go, I replied. I opened the channel to /r/craftbees and watched with great interest as the group of guys with guns started to chat."

"You're not reading reddit and there is no r/craftbees board. No. Stop talking. Duel. Now."

[silverspawn]

The potential duel is between Joseph2302 and A Drowned Kernel.

Day 3 will resume at September 21, 15:00 forum time. You have up until 1 hour prior to the deadline to vote, i.e. 23 hours from now. Don't forget to bold your votes.

[silverspawn]

"You shouldn't kill someone for being insane," a crew member interjected.

"... I guess. Well, well know that in a fight of Rats against a giant church bell, the big loser is the ability to say, 'Hey, hey, hey, I'm insane' without going down, I guess, as an easy target. As a side note-- my friend said that the biggest difference in his life is that he can't use my phone when he's on the job."

So the crew goes to bed. When they wake up, they find themselves in...

An Alternate Reality

The story begins as a world where, instead of having four seasons of a season, there are three.

jk, everything was normal.

[silverspawn]

No duel takes place.

Thread unlocked!

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 3.1

Not Voting (11): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends at September 27, 18:00 Forum Time.

[jotheonah]

vote: swan

[mcmcsalot]

vote: swan

[A Drowned Kernel]

Thank you all for being sensible

vote: swan

[Joseph2302]

Vote: DatSwan
L-2

[Joseph2302]

Glad common sense prevailed and no duel there
As I'm town, and ADK is seeming towny too

[EFHW]

Is there more against DatSwan than the missing nk? I  guess I've been in a minority tending to agree with him more than others.

[Debatepro]

Is there more against DatSwan than the missing nk? I  guess I've been in a minority tending to agree with him more than others.

Got someone else we should be looking at?

[jotheonah]

Is there more against DatSwan than the missing nk? I  guess I've been in a minority tending to agree with him more than others.

Someone said— and I tend to agree— that his response to the claims seemed like an attempt to throw some doubt on me and Joseph being treated as ICs, which is a very scummy reaction.

[EFHW]

Is there more against DatSwan than the missing nk? I  guess I've been in a minority tending to agree with him more than others.

Got someone else we should be looking at?

I'll look into it.

[EFHW]

Is there more against DatSwan than the missing nk? I  guess I've been in a minority tending to agree with him more than others.

Someone said— and I tend to agree— that his response to the claims seemed like an attempt to throw some doubt on me and Joseph being treated as ICs, which is a very scummy reaction.

I don't think that's scummy. I was thinking the same things, out of caution.

[Swowl]

OK small request - I need like half a day to respond to evidently a ton of shit here. I had a giant work event today and I am just freeking exhausted and I don't have the mind power to go through and respond to everything I want to at this point. I think at least, I am gonna start and just stop when I essentially pass out and pick it up later.

1)

Vote: Datswan
Me and joth not being town/town is the biggest rubbish I've heard all game

- This is absurd. Like even if Joseph is town this is absurd. Let's say Joseph is Town... they get the 1 shot for Neo.. They pick Joth. Weird choice imo, but whatever moving past that... Joseph would be picking between 10 other people... 3 of which are skum. So there is a 30% chance that this pick skum, a 10% chance they pick JK, and a 60% chance they pick VT. They then get a "not VT result". Put aside my assumption that we do not really need to be thinking we have 2 ICs here... Why in all the hell would Joseph not be suspicious of Joth here? If they Neo the JK, the JK claims JK. If they neo skum, the skum claims JK. It plays out the same. Why is it rubbish for me to not assume they are both town from Joseph's POV when they should themselves be at least moderately suspicious. It's not like they Neo'd Joth to try to clear Joth, they Neo'd them to hopefully get a result. Then they got a result... now they just wholey believe Joth? That... that is what doesn't make sense.


2)

Upon further reflection, I agree with DatSwan that we should take a step back from assuming we now have 2 ICs. Joseph could have been trying to frame joth and got unlucky that he hit the jk.  Joth could be scum who pretty much has to claim jk or be lynched.

If joth isn't the jk, the real jk is putting us in a really terrible position.....

- Then this. This is the opposite of a terrible position. It is only a terrible position if the tables are then turned on a random third party town (hint hint). The play for JK here is absolutely NOT TO CLAIM if Joth is not the JK. If anyone ever flips JK, then we have a free skum. If Joth isn't JK, and JK claims, then we get the free lynch now... which is albeit better... but the EV on the situation def goes to JK not claiming here.


3)

The idea that scum!joseph claims a result on town!joth is nutso bonkers. Swan's big post honestly makes me think that he was the one who made the kill last night and is trying to keep other scenarios open

-Right. That is why I said it was 1/4 potential instances. I did not say it is the only one. Also, just saying... If there was a player to pick for that circumstance, Joth would of been a good candidate. Because of the Day 2 duel, skum would know that there were quite a few people that would be ok looking at Joth (even more so after Glooble flipped). So, if they did choose to pick a town to make this claim, Joth would kind of be the one to pick.


4)

And looks like a good JK role block last night

You are not an IC. You probably are not even town. stop spinning it that way.


That is all I have I guess for now. I think that the people pushing me are coming off as opportunistic, but also they cannot all be skum. I thought/think ADK is skummy but I doubt that both skum ADK and skum Joseph would team up here like this ... and if I have to pick I obv am picking Joseph.

Joth is a non case for me at this point. I had forgotten that they had a BP tbh, and with that added onto the table for NK possibles, they are just gone from my lynch pool. Also, as I know I am town and this is happening and there is no duel... I am assuming that they are telling the truth.

Someone also said that they did not think that skum would come out the gate like this with a claim today. I do not agree, I think they would. They are super ahead right now, and anyone that has mathed out the game knows that it is gonna either be like a straight skum victory or it will most likely run to final 3 alive. That gives them all the reason in the world to try and start painting doubt and making images asap.

I will read back better later and see what is up but I do not get why I have so much hate right now. I feel like the ideas I laid out are fairly sound.

Vote: Joseph

[mcmcsalot]

Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.

I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.

Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.

We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.

[jotheonah]

Swan makes some good points... but I’d also still very possibly scum. At this point if Joseph and Swan are both town I’ll be shocked.

unvote for now. More from me tomorrow.

[Uncleeurope]

Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.

I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.

Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.

We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.

Oh, hello there, MiX. Turns out you aren’t as dead as we once thought.

[EFHW]

Shoot, now I'm getting the impression that DatSwan knows joth is town. It's late now, I'll look at details tomorrow.

[Swowl]

Shoot, now I'm getting the impression that DatSwan knows joth is town. It's late now, I'll look at details tomorrow.

Dudet- i think it is unlikely that they are both town. I think that Joth is town way over Joseph. It is not not conf bias, it is just i don’t want to lynch Joth and i do wanna lynch Joseph.

I also hard committed to glooble yesterday, the whole time defending Joth. Which i get is all “yeah exactly” but also not how i lit would play out if i was skum.

Idk what to do here you all need to think more clearly. My thoughts are valid.

[Swowl]

Swan makes some good points... but I’d also still very possibly scum. At this point if Joseph and Swan are both town I’ll be shocked.

unvote for now. More from me tomorrow.

I would like to know your standing on Joseph when you get a chance.

[Swowl]

Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.

I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.

Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.

We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.

I need you to stop being skummy. It is complicating the situation.

I said that it is unlikely (which it is) that town Joseph got a 1 shot Neo ability, then chose Joth to target, who happened to be the ONLY OTHER PR IN THE GAME. That is the literal definition of unlikely... to the point that it is not like... arguable.

Are people mis understanding me? Does that not make sense? it isn't an opinion, it is a fact. If there are X amount of players the lowest chance that someone can have to hit a PR is 1/X ( which is what we have in this game).

You are like tied with Faust for the last person that would just assume we have 2 ICs here. What gives?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.

I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.

Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.

We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.

I need you to stop being skummy. It is complicating the situation.

I said that it is unlikely (which it is) that town Joseph got a 1 shot Neo ability, then chose Joth to target, who happened to be the ONLY OTHER PR IN THE GAME. That is the literal definition of unlikely... to the point that it is not like... arguable.

Are people mis understanding me? Does that not make sense? it isn't an opinion, it is a fact. If there are X amount of players the lowest chance that someone can have to hit a PR is 1/X ( which is what we have in this game).

You are like tied with Faust for the last person that would just assume we have 2 ICs here. What gives?

Assuming Joseph is town and telling the truth, the odds of him hitting the JK were 1 in 10. That's not astronomically unlikely. To me that's more plausible than scum!Joseph deciding to fake a result and hope he guessed right

[Swowl]

Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.

I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.

Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.

We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.

What?
So like...
-Player X JKs Player Y
-Skum A shoots JK (or player Y)

We have no death. Then all this shit goes down. So, if Joth is not the JK, the  JK claiming solves what exactly?

If Joth is not the JK then the JK claims and we choose between [Swan, Joth, JK Claim]. I will save the space and let you math out why that is a great skum spot to be in.

I get why I could be skum here. But I am not, and it doesn't make sense that people have so much acceptance of the ideology that both Joth/Joseph are Town.

[Swowl]

Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.

I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.

Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.

We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.

I need you to stop being skummy. It is complicating the situation.

I said that it is unlikely (which it is) that town Joseph got a 1 shot Neo ability, then chose Joth to target, who happened to be the ONLY OTHER PR IN THE GAME. That is the literal definition of unlikely... to the point that it is not like... arguable.

Are people mis understanding me? Does that not make sense? it isn't an opinion, it is a fact. If there are X amount of players the lowest chance that someone can have to hit a PR is 1/X ( which is what we have in this game).

You are like tied with Faust for the last person that would just assume we have 2 ICs here. What gives?

Assuming Joseph is town and telling the truth, the odds of him hitting the JK were 1 in 10. That's not astronomically unlikely. To me that's more plausible than scum!Joseph deciding to fake a result and hope he guessed right

Those odds are literally identical.

[Swowl]

Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.

I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.

Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.

We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.

I need you to stop being skummy. It is complicating the situation.

I said that it is unlikely (which it is) that town Joseph got a 1 shot Neo ability, then chose Joth to target, who happened to be the ONLY OTHER PR IN THE GAME. That is the literal definition of unlikely... to the point that it is not like... arguable.

Are people mis understanding me? Does that not make sense? it isn't an opinion, it is a fact. If there are X amount of players the lowest chance that someone can have to hit a PR is 1/X ( which is what we have in this game).

You are like tied with Faust for the last person that would just assume we have 2 ICs here. What gives?

Assuming Joseph is town and telling the truth, the odds of him hitting the JK were 1 in 10. That's not astronomically unlikely. To me that's more plausible than scum!Joseph deciding to fake a result and hope he guessed right

Those odds are literally identical.

and also again. again again. just one of the thought I put forth. they could also both be skum. or both town. or the other way around.

I don't really know how to defend my case here. I am acting with a very important piece of info that no one else is. Joth COULD OF JKd me last night and prevented a kill. This makes me think Joth is town. I see how from another perspective that means way less. But that is where my lean on Joth over Joseph on the town side comes from.

[Swowl]

Also.

I voted yes to the duel.

I am not gonna be the one to point it out, but if someone else wants to do some work and point out why Joth/Joseph/ADK should claim their votes that would be neat.

[2.71828.....]

Ok, no duel.

About all the scenarios that swan is throwing out. They are all very much schemes and plots and stuff that can be true, but are just not the straightforward easy answer that is true 95% of the time.

Vote: swan

Back to L-2

[Awaclus]

Vote: DatSwan

[jotheonah]

I voted no.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Also.

I voted yes to the duel.

I am not gonna be the one to point it out, but if someone else wants to do some work and point out why Joth/Joseph/ADK should claim their votes that would be neat.

I voted no, and you're being ridiculous

[A Drowned Kernel]

Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.

I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.

Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.

We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.

I need you to stop being skummy. It is complicating the situation.

I said that it is unlikely (which it is) that town Joseph got a 1 shot Neo ability, then chose Joth to target, who happened to be the ONLY OTHER PR IN THE GAME. That is the literal definition of unlikely... to the point that it is not like... arguable.

Are people mis understanding me? Does that not make sense? it isn't an opinion, it is a fact. If there are X amount of players the lowest chance that someone can have to hit a PR is 1/X ( which is what we have in this game).

You are like tied with Faust for the last person that would just assume we have 2 ICs here. What gives?

Assuming Joseph is town and telling the truth, the odds of him hitting the JK were 1 in 10. That's not astronomically unlikely. To me that's more plausible than scum!Joseph deciding to fake a result and hope he guessed right

Those odds are literally identical.

The odds that scum!Joseph picks right is 1 in 10. What I find much more implausible is the idea that scum!Joseph decides to take that chance

[EFHW]

Is there more against DatSwan than the missing nk? I  guess I've been in a minority tending to agree with him more than others.

Got someone else we should be looking at?

I'll look into it.

I think the people who are so convinced we have 2 ICs here. So, Robz, ADK, e, mcmc, and joth and Joseph,  with joth>>joseph in my opinion.  That's a lot of people, though.

What are your ideas, Debate?

Checking vc before voting to see if any wagon other than DS could have a chance.

[EFHW]

I'm going with vote: Robz because I felt like he was trying to sway town through social pressure more than logic.

[EFHW]

Is there a reason joth can't be scum or are people following gut reads? Don't say it's because there was no counterclaim. I'm with DatSwan on that.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Is there a reason joth can't be scum or are people following gut reads? Don't say it's because there was no counterclaim. I'm with DatSwan on that.

If the JK is keeping quiet then they are playing terrible here

[Robz888]

I voted yes to the duel.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I voted yes to the duel.

Because you honestly think that me or joseph could be scum, or because you're sticking to your "always vote yes" stance?

[mcmcsalot]

Also I think swan is disregarding that it is almost equally as unlikely that scum!joseph picks the jk as town!joseph picks the jk.

Town!joseph has a 1 in 10 chance of hitting the jk.
Scum!joseph (assuming scum shot joth) knows joth is either the jk, protected by the jk, or the scum who did the nk was blocked by the jk. Those are three scenarios and I don’t know the probability of each occurring. But scum!joseph guessing correctly that joth was the jk and not just some vt which WOULD result in the real jk staying silent and best bet for scum is they trade 1v1 with a vt.

So the whole joseph has to be scum because there is no way town!joseph hit the jk is a super weirdly specific argument that doesn’t hold much water.

On top of that myself and adk sort of already went through this prior to swans post where he started down this track and he keeps acting like scum!joseph knows joth is the jk when he doesn’t.

Scum!swan however does know if joth is the jk or not because he knows if he did the nk or if someone else on his team shot joth.

[mcmcsalot]

I voted yes to the duel.

Because you honestly think that me or joseph could be scum, or because you're sticking to your "always vote yes" stance?

I want this answer as well. I voted no to the duel.

[jotheonah]

The Swan point that resonated with me that I’m thinking about now is the fact that Joseph investigated me because he thought I was scum, then I made the most obvious scum claim in the world, and then he became completely convinced I was town.

I’d like to think it’s because of my overwhelming air of townhomes, but Swan is totally right that it’s damned weird! So is it something scum!Joseph does? To answer that question we have to accept that we live in the reality where scum decided to go for this gambit. But I can actually believe that.

So scum!joseph finds out town didn’t get a power. And possibly/probably that the power they didn’t get was a 1-shot Neapolitan. So they discuss whether to fakeclaim it. They’re thinking that either they hit the JK (maybe they already suspect it’s me for some reason) or they hit a VT. If they hit a VT, they’re in a 1-for-1. The VT says “he’s lying he must be scum” and then we lynch them most likely and lynch ajoseph tomorrow. If they hit the JK, it’s still a 1-for-1.

At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.

Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.

[mcmcsalot]

Is there a reason joth can't be scum or are people following gut reads? Don't say it's because there was no counterclaim. I'm with DatSwan on that.

It’s not a can’t its a I highly doubt it.

I thought joth v glooble argument looked town v town, I thought the joth/glooble duel was a bad duel. I think joth jk targets make sense. And yes I think a different jk should claim.

Right now if we say the jk has to claim, then later no scum can pipe up and say “I’m the real jk, joth is lying, I kept quiet because I didn’t want to get shot at night”.

If joth is scum, the real jk doesn’t know if they blocked mafia or protected town or got shot at, so they don’t guarantee that they block another kill. We cannot be certain we believe their claim at a later date because many people think they should claim now.

So the only thing a jk does by waiting is hope to block another kill, and eventually if we lynch them or they die they trade one for one with joth. Which they could just trade one for one with joth now.

I doubt there is a town jk somewhere waiting to claim and hoping we lynch an un countered claim.

I think it’s most likely joth is the jk and town!joseph targeted him with his neo pr.

People who think it’s more likely joth is fake claiming are keeping open the ability for scum to fake claim later. People pushing that there is no way joseph hit the jk are going down a conspiratorial route to get lynched a guy who used a or and got a result. These are both super pro scum arguments because it destroys the IC ish status of joth/joseph and it pushes a lynch based on claims not reads.

[mcmcsalot]

Responding to joths recent comment about swan.

I don’t see where Swan makes the point that town!joseph shouldn’t have believed joths claim right away. However to provide clarity joseph did not.

Okay screw it, I was hoping someone would fake claim and out themselves as scum. But it hasn't happened, so I'm going to claim:

I'm a one shot neapolitan, and the result I got was that joth is not a VT
Having done the maths, this means there's a ~75% chance that they're scum.

And i really hope i haven't just outed our JK here

Guess what? You have!

Least surprising claim ever

Here is joseph pointing out that the only thing likely to happen is joth claims jk regardless of alignment.

Important: if joth isn't the JK, can the real JK please come out? Otherwise we're going to assume that joth is town

Here is joseph reiterating how important it is that the jk counterclaim or else we should assume joth is town. Which is what we are doing.

Because either joth is scum or JK. If he's JK, scum might know he's JK now (if they shot him last night)

And if he's scum, this is good information.

Btw, i chose joth because knowing the makeup of the duel yesterday (town/town or scum/town) would be good information for today

Also here is Joseph’s actual resining for targeting joth, because he was the survival of the duel and leaning the alignment of both glooble and joth is super helpful.

I agree with that entirely and also makes explains on a very towny way how town!joseph end up hitting jk!joth.

[Robz888]

I voted yes to the duel.

Because you honestly think that me or joseph could be scum, or because you're sticking to your "always vote yes" stance?

I want this answer as well. I voted no to the duel.

ADK has been highest on my scum list for a while, I thought we could lynch him and maybe get a PR. (No chance Joseph is scum.)

[jotheonah]

Hmm mcmc is making a lot of sense.

I’m willing to hammer. Not in a huge hurry to do so, but will plan to in 10 hours before I go to bed tonight. Or sooner if it seems like everyone’s said their peace.

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 3.2

DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
Robz888 (1): EFHW
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan

Not Voting (4): Robz888, Debatepro, jotheonah, Uncleeurope

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Sep. 27, 18:00 forum time. That is in 5 days and 6+ hours.

[Debatepro]

Town!joseph has a 1 in 10 chance of hitting the jk.

But for scum!joseph, if Joth was the NK, had a 50/50 shot that unsuccessful NK means Joth was JK or VT.

[mcmcsalot]

Town!joseph has a 1 in 10 chance of hitting the jk.

But for scum!joseph, if Joth was the NK, had a 50/50 shot that unsuccessful NK means Joth was JK or VT.

No as I’ve explained before it’s more complex than 50/50 because if scum shoots joth and there is no nk joth could be jk, joth could have been protected by the jk, or the scum that shot could have been jailkept. Scum!joseph doesn’t know the how the kill was prevented.

[Debatepro]

Hmm mcmc is making a lot of sense.

I’m willing to hammer. Not in a huge hurry to do so, but will plan to in 10 hours before I go to bed tonight. Or sooner if it seems like everyone’s said their peace.

Wait we have like 4ish more days, right? If DS is scum and to be the Lynch, let’s track down their partners.

I for one am interested in determining which one of these folks below is his likely partner.  Given the way the DS discussion is going, is Robz the best candidate? ADK would have to be on a super bus plan and aweclus would be on the short bus plan.  Other thoughts?

There are 5 players who have voted for all three of the confirmed town players (Pubby, MiX, Glooble). They also voted for each confirmed town player, prior to the 2nd duel being announced.
1. ADK
2. Awaclus
3. Joseph (claimed Neap)
4. Joth (claimed JK)
5. Robz

If we just isolate day one votes for confirmed town the list is:
1. ADK
2. Joth
3. Robz

Awaclus had the very first vote on day two for glooble and joseph also votes glooble on the seventh vote of day 2 which is before the glooble v joth duel was announced.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Hmm mcmc is making a lot of sense.

I’m willing to hammer. Not in a huge hurry to do so, but will plan to in 10 hours before I go to bed tonight. Or sooner if it seems like everyone’s said their peace.

Wait we have like 4ish more days, right? If DS is scum and to be the Lynch, let’s track down their partners.

I for one am interested in determining which one of these folks below is his likely partner.  Given the way the DS discussion is going, is Robz the best candidate? ADK would have to be on a super bus plan and aweclus would be on the short bus plan.  Other thoughts?

There are 5 players who have voted for all three of the confirmed town players (Pubby, MiX, Glooble). They also voted for each confirmed town player, prior to the 2nd duel being announced.
1. ADK
2. Awaclus
3. Joseph (claimed Neap)
4. Joth (claimed JK)
5. Robz

If we just isolate day one votes for confirmed town the list is:
1. ADK
2. Joth
3. Robz

Awaclus had the very first vote on day two for glooble and joseph also votes glooble on the seventh vote of day 2 which is before the glooble v joth duel was announced.

EFHW and Eddie seem like likely candidates

[Swowl]

Is there a reason joth can't be scum or are people following gut reads? Don't say it's because there was no counterclaim. I'm with DatSwan on that.

My reason for Joth being town is primarily due to the fact that there was no night kill. I don't believe a JK should claim if Joth is skum, but also I am pretty heavily disagreed with on that... and there has been no claim. But, when you take those two pieces of info:

1) They shot Joth last night and used his BP... which is just super unlikely to kill off the other person from a duel. Pretty much the only reason to do it is if they had a strong read that he was exactly JK... but then they would of used their SM shot... but that didn't happen.

2) So all of that combined with my perspective pretty much. In which I believe that I would of been a good kill choice for skum last night. Joth would of thought from the previous day I was either white knighting him or I was pure town - so I am a great JK choice from his pov. 

so yeah... joth is town imo bc of that.

[Swowl]

Hmm mcmc is making a lot of sense.

I’m willing to hammer. Not in a huge hurry to do so, but will plan to in 10 hours before I go to bed tonight. Or sooner if it seems like everyone’s said their peace.

Wait we have like 4ish more days, right? If DS is scum and to be the Lynch, let’s track down their partners.

I for one am interested in determining which one of these folks below is his likely partner.  Given the way the DS discussion is going, is Robz the best candidate? ADK would have to be on a super bus plan and aweclus would be on the short bus plan.  Other thoughts?

There are 5 players who have voted for all three of the confirmed town players (Pubby, MiX, Glooble). They also voted for each confirmed town player, prior to the 2nd duel being announced.
1. ADK
2. Awaclus
3. Joseph (claimed Neap)
4. Joth (claimed JK)
5. Robz

If we just isolate day one votes for confirmed town the list is:
1. ADK
2. Joth
3. Robz

Awaclus had the very first vote on day two for glooble and joseph also votes glooble on the seventh vote of day 2 which is before the glooble v joth duel was announced.

gonna go ahead and save town a TON of time and effort here... You absolutely should use the whole day today... even if there nothing I can do to prevent my lynch. However, don't waste your time partner searching based on me being skum. spend the time doing something else useful.

[Swowl]

Also I think swan is disregarding that it is almost equally as unlikely that scum!joseph picks the jk as town!joseph picks the jk.

Town!joseph has a 1 in 10 chance of hitting the jk.
Scum!joseph (assuming scum shot joth) knows joth is either the jk, protected by the jk, or the scum who did the nk was blocked by the jk. Those are three scenarios and I don’t know the probability of each occurring. But scum!joseph guessing correctly that joth was the jk and not just some vt which WOULD result in the real jk staying silent and best bet for scum is they trade 1v1 with a vt.

So the whole joseph has to be scum because there is no way town!joseph hit the jk is a super weirdly specific argument that doesn’t hold much water.

On top of that myself and adk sort of already went through this prior to swans post where he started down this track and he keeps acting like scum!joseph knows joth is the jk when he doesn’t.

Scum!swan however does know if joth is the jk or not because he knows if he did the nk or if someone else on his team shot joth.

you are doing an insanely good job of reading my posts... disregarding key pieces of info, and then painting them as wayyyyyyy more opinionated then they are.

You play with me a lot. I am not making cases here (and you know that) - I am just stating possibilities.

We normally do this dance on Day 1, not Day 3, so I am struggling on how to deal with talking to you in this mode.

How about this: Everyone is just fucking town ok - pretend with me for a second - Assume you are town, I am town, both Joth and Joseph are Town. Who is skum?

[Uncleeurope]

E and Awaclus?

Probably e.

Or Robz.

Or EFHW.

Probably e.

[Swowl]

At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.

Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.

Sure.
Wake up Day 3 with 3vs8 (11 total). skum here would be considering two options:

1) Can they quick win this?
   - Not really like in this set up after they do not get a kill last night. Even if they went mislynch+NK, then tomorrow mislynch+NK, we would still wake up Day 5 with 7 alive (3vs4).
   - So their "quick win" is batting perfect and ending the game after a third mislynch at the end of Day 5.
   - That would mean that as town we go 5 straight days without finding a single skum. Do you believe that to be likely?


2) So it must be a long game. OK. What are threats they need to deal with?
   - Being a Town PR gain with a result is a pretty good thing to start with.
   - Then, there is also the JK. The priority they would have would be to make sure the JK dies before they get a chance to claim relevant information that can fuck them over.


Coolio, consider this.

I am saying that I see a scenario where Joseph is Skum and Joth is Town. Here is the timeline I am using to justify that as a potential possibility. It is not convoluted, it is a timeline. Every choice skum would make in this assumption would of been due to the effects of the previous step of the timeline, not thought of in whole prior as a "master plan".

Night 2 - They have to choose a target. Let's say they did for some reason choose Joth. They also got info of the PR (in this scenario), so they do not have to worry about another PR out there that can proc.


Day 3 Starts - They wake up and there is no death. So the options are:

a) The skum that shot was JK'd - I find it extremely hard to believe that given how this game has gone so far that they would have a problem picking someone to carry out the kill that they are not essentially certain would not be JK'd. So, this one is in the trash for me... as it would be for them as well.

b) Joth was JK'd - Also in trash for me, as it would be for them as well. Why would the JK pick the counterpart of the duel in this spot? There could be reasons, but when compared to "c"..

c) Joth is the JK and they hit bulletproof. From a skum PoV, given the available options that could of happened at the beginning of Day 3... this would be the primary likely option.


***OK - now as you are reading take a second and pause. This is not a paranoia theory at this point. It is a lot of ideas, but they all are happening chronologically 1 at a time. NOT pre planned out. They made choice 1, cause created an option list, in which they made choice 2.***


Day 3 Mid - They choose to make a fake claim on Joth. Options to them at the time of this choice would be:

a) Joth is the JK. They out the JK. Now they have the JK. Since Joth is alive they still have their SM shot too. So they don't even have to kill Joth at night. They can, surprise, try to paint Joth's NK as skum (me), keeping either of the claims from flipping, then use their SM tonight on someone random to GTD they get the kill off, then when we wake up and Joth is alive... everyone is like... why is Joth alive? That is not outting one person for 1 mislynch... that is outting 1 person to get 1 mislynch, then a mislynch on the JK, and retain 2 NKs over that time.

b) Joth was JK'd by someone else. Of course this option doesn't really make sense right now, but at the time that they chose to target Joth, it is important to point it out. They would of considered this and thought that Joth would say it was a lie. At that point, I see the logic in how "that doesn't make sense for skum to choose this". However, remember that they would most likely been in a spot where they would think it was very unlikely for someone to JK Joth.

c) The shooter was JK'd. Again, there is no reason at this point in the game skum would think this is likely.



Late Day 3 - They play accordingly. As it happens, the most likely scenario was the correct one and Joth was JK. Then Joth obv claims targets. In a world where Joth was JK and also targeted skum on Night 2, they would hard push for that player being towny (not skummy as is happening). If Joth picked a Town target Night 2, they would paint that player as skummy (as is happening right now). Any which way, they get a minimum of a 1:1 trade and if Joth is the JK they end up getting a 1-2:1 trade, one of which eliminates the JK.



I hope that answers your question - that is literally the entire thought process I went through for that scenario.

I feel the need to end with this - That is not exactly what I think is the only thing in the world that could of happened. I just think that it is almost as likely as both of them being Town. Mainly based on the concept that I just do not see town freeking anyone choosing Joth as the Neo target last night. But I have been wrong in that type of scenario before. But then Joseph was on the duel list... and then we went no duel. When Joth was on the duel list, we went to duel. So, I guess I just want to make it clear that if I must be the lynch, don't go crusading mindlessly on Joseph after I flip. I mean, don't ignore him either, but there is a possibility that they are both town.

[EFHW]

I'm finding debate's suggestion pretty scummy. I'm fine with not rushing to a lynch I don't support,  but to say you're looking for partners  without voting for DS in the first place seems like a way to distract town while seeming to agree. If DS is scum, Debate looks like a prime candidate for partner! If DS is town debate still looks scummy by not taking a stand. vote: Debate

Ppe: 1 wall

[Swowl]

Also something that I want to get out in case I get quick lynched here:

Everyone needs to consider the strength that skum will be in tomorrow after pushing my lynch here.
They will mislynch me (-1), then they will kill Joth (-2), then if Joseph is Skum they will push the concept that they were just both town... which is already happening like... a lot, or if Joseph is Town they will push for his lynch (which is unlikely due to how many people have given opinions that is TvT).

Regardless of Joseph, if you lynch me, when you wake up tomorrow it will be 6v3 with 9 alive. And there will be no Joth I assume, so JK is gone.

That is important because of the duel stuff. When they make up 50% of the Town players, they have a fairly strong potential of controlling the duel stat to their favor. If they like the duel they will only need 2/6 to make a duel happen, and it will require 5/6 to make a duel they don't want to happen go off (if you assume it is a skumvstown duel, and the town in duel votes no, it will actually take 100% of other town to vote yes).

Obviously, that scenario is the same if we lynch someone other than me and they are also Town... but the point as a piece of information is what I wanted to get across. It kind of leads into my whole "they would play for the long game" scenario. Imagine the end game for them. Something like:

- Day 6 would probably be 5 alive with 2 skum. So they control the duel pretty well, but again, I would be hopeful town could find a skum there. If not, then we lose, but that leads to..
- Day 7 would probably be 3 alive with 1 skum. They for sure would be factoring this in. It is either no duel normal, or skum vs town so 50-50, or town v town for a lock win. It is because of this I think that they would be willing risk the trade because as long as they can get to this point with no extra info, they are looking good. To make that happen they need to be able to control the JK (by getting rid of them) and attempt to keep control of duels (to prevent additional info from PRs).

That's all I got.

I will give up on Joseph as I am obviously getting no traction there.

My other 2 would be ADK and E. Followed by Awaclus and Debate. Which is weird because that pretty much is the so far spoken of "partner list" I could have.

[jotheonah]

At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.

Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.

Sure.
Wake up Day 3 with 3vs8 (11 total). skum here would be considering two options:

1) Can they quick win this?
   - Not really like in this set up after they do not get a kill last night.

Let me stop you right there. Scum doesn't know their kill didn't go through until day start. So this whole thing you laid out works only as something Joseph by himself decided to do without consulting his partners.

[Swowl]

At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.

Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.

Sure.
Wake up Day 3 with 3vs8 (11 total). skum here would be considering two options:

1) Can they quick win this?
   - Not really like in this set up after they do not get a kill last night.

Let me stop you right there. Scum doesn't know their kill didn't go through until day start. So this whole thing you laid out works only as something Joseph by himself decided to do without consulting his partners.

tbf that is exactly what my thought was on being willing to dial back on Joseph.
I don't think he is the type of player that always will take that line like "by themselves".

Still possible, but yeah... kind of have to agree with you there.

[Joseph2302]

At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.

Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.

Sure.
Wake up Day 3 with 3vs8 (11 total). skum here would be considering two options:

1) Can they quick win this?
   - Not really like in this set up after they do not get a kill last night.

Let me stop you right there. Scum doesn't know their kill didn't go through until day start. So this whole thing you laid out works only as something Joseph by himself decided to do without consulting his partners.

tbf that is exactly what my thought was on being willing to dial back on Joseph.
I don't think he is the type of player that always will take that line like "by themselves".

Still possible, but yeah... kind of have to agree with you there.

I'm not the sort of person with enough thinking power to single handedly create such an elaborate scheme

[Joseph2302]

And i feel like the (few) people who've played a reasonable number of games with me know that

[Uncleeurope]

At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.

Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.

Sure.
Wake up Day 3 with 3vs8 (11 total). skum here would be considering two options:

1) Can they quick win this?
   - Not really like in this set up after they do not get a kill last night.

Let me stop you right there. Scum doesn't know their kill didn't go through until day start. So this whole thing you laid out works only as something Joseph by himself decided to do without consulting his partners.

#TownSlip

I dunno, man, I wanna trust Swowl here a lot more than other people at the moment.

[Awaclus]

I dunno, man, I wanna trust Swowl here a lot more than other people at the moment.

Are you his scumbuddy?

[Uncleeurope]

I dunno, man, I wanna trust Swowl here a lot more than other people at the moment.

Are you his scumbuddy?

Yes.

[EFHW]

Any reaction to my point about Debate? I feel like I might be onto something here.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Any reaction to my point about Debate? I feel like I might be onto something here.

Debate's post is hedgey on the issue of swan, though so is your post on debate

I have more to say on this and other subjects but am on the phone right now

[Debatepro]

Any reaction to my point about Debate? I feel like I might be onto something here.

Your not, it’s a miss lynch. But throwing fire my way after all my posts seems desperate. Why? I’m busy buying, selling, and moving a houses. I saw Joth’s claim that he would hammer in 10 hours and we have 4 days left. Two of the people on DS were on my scum list, so those things don’t add up. Thus the statement , if DS is scum then let’s identify his partners.

[EFHW]

Any reaction to my point about Debate? I feel like I might be onto something here.

Debate's post is hedgey on the issue of swan, though so is your post on debate

I have more to say on this and other subjects but am on the phone right now

How is my post hedgy?

[EFHW]

Any reaction to my point about Debate? I feel like I might be onto something here.

Your not, it’s a miss lynch. But throwing fire my way after all my posts seems desperate. Why? I’m busy buying, selling, and moving a houses. I saw Joth’s claim that he would hammer in 10 hours and we have 4 days left. Two of the people on DS were on my scum list, so those things don’t add up. Thus the statement , if DS is scum then let’s identify his partners.

But you have never stated a scumread on DatSwan. You have kept out of the conversation completely.  So it doesn't make sense for you to look for partners.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Any reaction to my point about Debate? I feel like I might be onto something here.

Debate's post is hedgey on the issue of swan, though so is your post on debate

I have more to say on this and other subjects but am on the phone right now

How is my post hedgy?

It's hedgey on the subject of swan. Maybe hedgey is the wrong word, but I find it interesting that your effort to put focus on debate is explicitly independent of swan's alignment

[jotheonah]

It seems like things are happening so I’ll hold off on the hammer. Still leaning that way.

[Debatepro]

Any reaction to my point about Debate? I feel like I might be onto something here.

Your not, it’s a miss lynch. But throwing fire my way after all my posts seems desperate. Why? I’m busy buying, selling, and moving a houses. I saw Joth’s claim that he would hammer in 10 hours and we have 4 days left. Two of the people on DS were on my scum list, so those things don’t add up. Thus the statement , if DS is scum then let’s identify his partners.

But you have never stated a scumread on DatSwan. You have kept out of the conversation completely.  So it doesn't make sense for you to look for partners.

It’s a counterfactual. I have not had a scum read on DS, a discussion that involves identifying his potential partners is very revealing. It can show he’s Town, identify the “real” scum team that doesn’t include DS, or identify his partners. That discussion is useful with 4 days left that we can’t have if someone hammers.

[Swowl]

Any reaction to my point about Debate? I feel like I might be onto something here.

Your not, it’s a miss lynch. But throwing fire my way after all my posts seems desperate. Why? I’m busy buying, selling, and moving a houses. I saw Joth’s claim that he would hammer in 10 hours and we have 4 days left. Two of the people on DS were on my scum list, so those things don’t add up. Thus the statement , if DS is scum then let’s identify his partners.

But you have never stated a scumread on DatSwan. You have kept out of the conversation completely.  So it doesn't make sense for you to look for partners.

It’s a counterfactual. I have not had a scum read on DS, a discussion that involves identifying his potential partners is very revealing. It can show he’s Town, identify the “real” scum team that doesn’t include DS, or identify his partners. That discussion is useful with 4 days left that we can’t have if someone hammers.

k. so why start a discussion that does start with the words "lets use the day to find Swan's partners".

[Swowl]

And i feel like the (few) people who've played a reasonable number of games with me know that

what? that is almost exactly what I said. "I do not think you are capable of this play as skum". so you are agreeing with me... or not?

[Swowl]

And i feel like the (few) people who've played a reasonable number of games with me know that

what? that is almost exactly what I said. "I do not think you are capable of this play as skum". so you are agreeing with me... or not?

before anyone else gets there I want to make this clear... I think that he is capable of this under these circumstances.... just not in general. Which is why I adjusted my view previously.

[Swowl]

the fact that you bring it up after I already bring it up is strange though.

[Swowl]

Joth - You really think I am skum?

[Swowl]

Day 1 was ADK vs E. Went no duel.

Claimed to vote YES (4):
e
Joseph
Robz
Joth

Claimed to vote NO (:
pubby
mcmcsalot
Glooble
ADK
EFHW
MiX
Debate
Swan

Hasn't claimed (2):
Awaclus
I0X


at this point, we can't pull anything from that info (other than we know Glooble Pubby Mix) were telling the truth. Claiming "no" and claiming "yes" are essentially the same i this game as prepping for a VCA look back - in regards to a skum PoV. So, People that said no were [MCMC, ADK, EFHW, Debate, Swan] and people that said yes were [e, Joseph, Robz Joth]. Then there is Eddie/I0x and captain unhelpful. I also think that eddie said he looked back and it said he had not voted? but that is just off of memory.

It doesn't matter.

There is skum here - [MCMC, ADK, EFHW, Debate, Swan]
And there is skum here - [e, Joseph, Robz Joth]

It may only be 1 and 1, or hell if I know tbh, but just like making sure they are appropriately spread out on wagons for VCA they would of made sure to manipulate this to be separate.

This isn't so much a post to help me right now but more for if you decide to lynch me.

When you remove me, Joth, (and fuck it) let's say Joseph. from the list. That means Robz or ADK is skum. Add in awaclus potential I guess. So then what pans them out. Has someone been in 2 of 3 duels that have not happened? obvious sarcasm. Weird that I am the first person to bring it up. But I have been holding back, and it has been long enough.

[Swowl]

I suck at this. Openly admitted. I don't know how to defend myself without making cases on other people. I do think that Joseph could be skum. Tied with him I suspect ADK. I do not want my posts to be mis read in terms of me trying to push alternative cases instead of defending myself. I just don't know what to do here. Everyone seems like they are blindfolded. If both Joseph and Joth are town due to results, I am just as likely to be town. The only reason i am hated is because I am the one pointing out the potential scenarios (or possibly the only one without a result claim).

Any which way IDK what to do anymore. There is no way that all skum is on me, so they are purposely dragging it out. So we need to switch the discussion to someone else. You can lynch me at the end of the day anyway, whatever. But for now, just put effort into something different then lynch me at the end.

[Debatepro]

It’s a counterfactual. I have not had a scum read on DS, a discussion that involves identifying his potential partners is very revealing. It can show he’s Town, identify the “real” scum team that doesn’t include DS, or identify his partners. That discussion is useful with 4 days left that we can’t have if someone hammers.

k. so why start a discussion that does start with the words "lets use the day to find Swan's partners".

Your not helping yourself here. I am 1 billion percent town, the literal definition of a counterfactual is to make a statement that is counter to fact. Like if a if a kangaroo doesn’t have a tail, would the fall over. It has to start with, if swan is scum, who are his partners? What’s most revealing here is all the people who are pushing you are not chiming in with potential partner suggestion. Because if it requires debate to be scum if you are scum, then their case is maybe only 100% wrong.

[EFHW]

It’s a counterfactual. I have not had a scum read on DS, a discussion that involves identifying his potential partners is very revealing. It can show he’s Town, identify the “real” scum team that doesn’t include DS, or identify his partners. That discussion is useful with 4 days left that we can’t have if someone hammers.

k. so why start a discussion that does start with the words "lets use the day to find Swan's partners".

Your not helping yourself here. I am 1 billion percent town, the literal definition of a counterfactual is to make a statement that is counter to fact. Like if a if a kangaroo doesn’t have a tail, would the fall over. It has to start with, if swan is scum, who are his partners? What’s most revealing here is all the people who are pushing you are not chiming in with potential partner suggestion. Because if it requires debate to be scum if you are scum, then their case is maybe only 100% wrong.

I can't make any sense out of this post.  And why so aggressive? You can't play a mafia game without coming under some pressure or scrutiny.

[jotheonah]

Joth - You really think I am skum?

I'm not sure of it. You are doing a good job of seeming like aggrieved town. But the following things are true:

1) Your wagon does not feel like a towny wagon. It has a lot of support but also a significant handful of holdouts, and no one is egging it on particularly hard. It has all the hallmarks of a caught scum wagon.

2) Your immediate response to claims (which you have since backed off on after being called out) was the one I would expect scum to have, namely to try to prevent us from "IC"ing myself and Joseph. There are legitimate objections to that, especially if you think one of us is scum, but generally town needs to build coherent narratives and employ POE to get a lynch, and scum has a very vested interest in derailing that process.

Your immediate reaction is more telling than your more measured posts of late. And your immediate reaction was one of not concern about your own lynch, but concern that town was going to get itself two ICs (and make scum's late game that much harder).

Unfortunately, we're at the point where we're all good enough at this game that we don't have the luxury of lynching "obvscum" very often. But to me, the world where you're caught scum is much more persuasive than the world where you're unfortunate town (though I acknowledge the latter is a possibility). I'd say I'm about 70-30 on you flipping red here.

[EFHW]

Any reaction to my point about Debate? I feel like I might be onto something here.

Debate's post is hedgey on the issue of swan, though so is your post on debate

I have more to say on this and other subjects but am on the phone right now

How is my post hedgy?

It's hedgey on the subject of swan. Maybe hedgey is the wrong word, but I find it interesting that your effort to put focus on debate is explicitly independent of swan's alignment

I did get excited about the scum!DatSwan narrative for scum!Debate. But my main case is that he has been avoiding taking a stance on DatSwan period.

[A Drowned Kernel]

What’s most revealing here is all the people who are pushing you are not chiming in with potential partner suggestion.

I did

[EFHW]

What’s most revealing here is all the people who are pushing you are not chiming in with potential partner suggestion.

I did

What is it revealing of? People are making best guesses here. Speculating about partners is even more iffy and less substantiated. Who are you pointing to when you say "all the people"?

[Debatepro]

Hmm mcmc is making a lot of sense.

I’m willing to hammer. Not in a huge hurry to do so, but will plan to in 10 hours before I go to bed tonight. Or sooner if it seems like everyone’s said their peace.

Wait we have like 4ish more days, right? If DS is scum and to be the Lynch, let’s track down their partners.

I for one am interested in determining which one of these folks below is his likely partner.  Given the way the DS discussion is going, is Robz the best candidate? ADK would have to be on a super bus plan and aweclus would be on the short bus plan.  Other thoughts?

There are 5 players who have voted for all three of the confirmed town players (Pubby, MiX, Glooble). They also voted for each confirmed town player, prior to the 2nd duel being announced.
1. ADK
2. Awaclus
3. Joseph (claimed Neap)
4. Joth (claimed JK)
5. Robz

If we just isolate day one votes for confirmed town the list is:
1. ADK
2. Joth
3. Robz

Awaclus had the very first vote on day two for glooble and joseph also votes glooble on the seventh vote of day 2 which is before the glooble v joth duel was announced.

EFHW and Eddie seem like likely candidates

What’s most revealing here is all the people who are pushing you are not chiming in with potential partner suggestion.

I did

So what your saying is that it’s Datswan, EFHW, and Eddie? And that not a single scum (of the non-IC variety) exists between you, aweclus, and Robz. AKA the empirically anti-town voting group.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Hmm mcmc is making a lot of sense.

I’m willing to hammer. Not in a huge hurry to do so, but will plan to in 10 hours before I go to bed tonight. Or sooner if it seems like everyone’s said their peace.

Wait we have like 4ish more days, right? If DS is scum and to be the Lynch, let’s track down their partners.

I for one am interested in determining which one of these folks below is his likely partner.  Given the way the DS discussion is going, is Robz the best candidate? ADK would have to be on a super bus plan and aweclus would be on the short bus plan.  Other thoughts?

There are 5 players who have voted for all three of the confirmed town players (Pubby, MiX, Glooble). They also voted for each confirmed town player, prior to the 2nd duel being announced.
1. ADK
2. Awaclus
3. Joseph (claimed Neap)
4. Joth (claimed JK)
5. Robz

If we just isolate day one votes for confirmed town the list is:
1. ADK
2. Joth
3. Robz

Awaclus had the very first vote on day two for glooble and joseph also votes glooble on the seventh vote of day 2 which is before the glooble v joth duel was announced.

EFHW and Eddie seem like likely candidates

What’s most revealing here is all the people who are pushing you are not chiming in with potential partner suggestion.

I did

So what your saying is that it’s Datswan, EFHW, and Eddie? And that not a single scum (of the non-IC variety) exists between you, aweclus, and Robz. AKA the empirically anti-town voting group.

That's not an implausible scum team. Robz could also be swan's partner but there's no reason to think that scum is going to be on every single town wagon. If anything they're going to make an effort not to be

[jotheonah]

Ok. Intent to hammer. For real this time.

[Joseph2302]

FWIW, I have some ideas for scum teams. But i don't feel like i need to share them right now

[Joseph2302]

Don't want to give scum anymore information about anything. After the chaos i caused last time

[Awaclus]

FWIW, I have some ideas for scum teams. But i don't feel like i need to share them right now

Based.

[Debatepro]

Ok. Intent to hammer. For real this time.

Any reads or info you want to leave us with, since I imagine the JK will be the scum target.

[jotheonah]

Ok. Intent to hammer. For real this time.

Any reads or info you want to leave us with, since I imagine the JK will be the scum target.

Sharing my reads is a good way to make sure I do die. I believe I can save myself by JKing the scum shooter.

[Debatepro]

Ok. Intent to hammer. For real this time.

Any reads or info you want to leave us with, since I imagine the JK will be the scum target.

Sharing my reads is a good way to make sure I do die. I believe I can save myself by JKing the scum shooter.

good luck

[Uncleeurope]

I dislike this.

[EFHW]

Why have no other wagons come up?

[Debatepro]

Scums on the wagon.

[Debatepro]

I am down to lynch DS, but shouldn't we wait and see if he comes up in the duel? Then we can lynch him and maybe get a PR.

@Robz - you seemed to be down to lynch DS but your not voting here, why?

[Swowl]

It’s a counterfactual. I have not had a scum read on DS, a discussion that involves identifying his potential partners is very revealing. It can show he’s Town, identify the “real” scum team that doesn’t include DS, or identify his partners. That discussion is useful with 4 days left that we can’t have if someone hammers.

k. so why start a discussion that does start with the words "lets use the day to find Swan's partners".

Your not helping yourself here. I am 1 billion percent town, the literal definition of a counterfactual is to make a statement that is counter to fact. Like if a if a kangaroo doesn’t have a tail, would the fall over. It has to start with, if swan is scum, who are his partners? What’s most revealing here is all the people who are pushing you are not chiming in with potential partner suggestion. Because if it requires debate to be scum if you are scum, then their case is maybe only 100% wrong.

I can't make any sense out of this post.  And why so aggressive? You can't play a mafia game without coming under some pressure or scrutiny.

I don't feel like I was being aggressive - if I was mb, not the intention. I just don't think spending time "looking for my partners" is a good strategy. Both because it type casts me as skum, and because the conversation will just create too much wifom logic for skum to use later on.

I would rather, personally, focus on who could be skum that is not me. To which I come to ADK, but I doubt I am gonna have enough time left in the day to make that case. But try I shall I suppose.

[Swowl]

Joth - You really think I am skum?

I'm not sure of it. You are doing a good job of seeming like aggrieved town. But the following things are true:

1) Your wagon does not feel like a towny wagon. It has a lot of support but also a significant handful of holdouts, and no one is egging it on particularly hard. It has all the hallmarks of a caught scum wagon.

2) Your immediate response to claims (which you have since backed off on after being called out) was the one I would expect scum to have, namely to try to prevent us from "IC"ing myself and Joseph. There are legitimate objections to that, especially if you think one of us is scum, but generally town needs to build coherent narratives and employ POE to get a lynch, and scum has a very vested interest in derailing that process.

Your immediate reaction is more telling than your more measured posts of late. And your immediate reaction was one of not concern about your own lynch, but concern that town was going to get itself two ICs (and make scum's late game that much harder).

Unfortunately, we're at the point where we're all good enough at this game that we don't have the luxury of lynching "obvscum" very often. But to me, the world where you're caught scum is much more persuasive than the world where you're unfortunate town (though I acknowledge the latter is a possibility). I'd say I'm about 70-30 on you flipping red here.

Well that is about as a clear cut answer as I could suspect. I mean you're wrong, but the last part at least chimes true decently.

I got like one other thing I need to pull some posts for once I am done with work, if you could hold of on hammering for a few hrs that would be neat.

[jotheonah]

No worries. I have to wait for Silver to answer a question in my QT anyway.

[EFHW]

Scums on the wagon.

Why aren't you, Eddie and Robz voting?

[Uncleeurope]

Scums on the wagon.

Why aren't you, Eddie and Robz voting?

Vote: e

Vote: ADK

[Debatepro]

Scums on the wagon.

Why aren't you, Eddie and Robz voting?

I can't speak for Eddie & Robz. I'm not a huge fan of the DS vote, mostly because 3 of my top scum candidates at the beginning of the day are on it.  If DS is scum, then someone(s) busing or I have it wrong.

Considering Robz was all in on voting for DS pre-duel, perhaps you should direct your attention at him. Vote: Robz

PPE: I'm down Vote: ADK

[2.71828.....]

Sorry, I was away from home for work and was super active then got home and haven't been active at all. I think the whole idea of no counter wagon could be valid, or scum don't want to jump out on their own to start a counter.

Still like the Datswan lynch

[2.71828.....]

And ppe, those two votes

[Debatepro]

I think the duel failed because scum voted 'no' for Joseph (IC) v. ADK (ScumTeamMate).

I think as soon as Joth (IC) voted DS then scum and everyone else felt safe voting for DS. Votes when like: MCMC, ADK, Joseph (IC), e, and Aweclus.

[Robz888]

I'm sort of fine with lynching DS and would be willing to provide the vote to do it, but that doesn't look necessary, I guess.

[jotheonah]

I'm sort of fine with lynching DS and would be willing to provide the vote to do it, but that doesn't look necessary, I guess.

Are you fine with it because you think he's scum or because you're ready for the day to end and want information?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Why have no other wagons come up?

You, debate and Eddie have been pushing "anyone but swan" for awhile now, so this seems pretty disingenuous

[Uncleeurope]

Hardly anyone but Swan.

And the idea that it’s exactly us three must seem a bit silly to you.

What’s disingenuous is the lack of concern people seem to be having about Swan’s alignment.

I can’t help but read his posts and feel hesitation due to many assumptions he is making that I don’t think a baddie would make in his spot.

He seems to be working with half of the information, just like town would be doing.

[Uncleeurope]

The think I am having trouble shaking right now is that my initial take on the information taken from claims was Swan seemed town, where everyone went the other direction and I haven’t been convinced as to why, yet.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Hardly anyone but Swan.

And the idea that it’s exactly us three must seem a bit silly to you.

What’s disingenuous is the lack of concern people seem to be having about Swan’s alignment.

I can’t help but read his posts and feel hesitation due to many assumptions he is making that I don’t think a baddie would make in his spot.

He seems to be working with half of the information, just like town would be doing.

I mean all three of you can't all be his partners because that's too many scum. But the argument that swan can't be scum because no one protesting his lynch or looking elsewhere doesn't hold water

[Robz888]

I'm sort of fine with lynching DS and would be willing to provide the vote to do it, but that doesn't look necessary, I guess.

Are you fine with it because you think he's scum or because you're ready for the day to end and want information?

I'm ready for the day to end, and also think the case on him is decent-ish enough. I could really see him as scum, and not as scum. Sorry to be wishy washy!

[EFHW]

Why have no other wagons come up?

You, debate and Eddie have been pushing "anyone but swan" for awhile now, so this seems pretty disingenuous

This does not feel like an accurate description.

[EFHW]

Hardly anyone but Swan.

And the idea that it’s exactly us three must seem a bit silly to you.

What’s disingenuous is the lack of concern people seem to be having about Swan’s alignment.

I can’t help but read his posts and feel hesitation due to many assumptions he is making that I don’t think a baddie would make in his spot.

He seems to be working with half of the information, just like town would be doing.

I mean all three of you can't all be his partners because that's too many scum. But the argument that swan can't be scum because no one protesting his lynch or looking elsewhere doesn't hold water

It doesn't give you pause at all? I never said he can't be scum for that reason.  I never said he can't be scum.  Just I personally don't think he is. 

[A Drowned Kernel]

Hardly anyone but Swan.

And the idea that it’s exactly us three must seem a bit silly to you.

What’s disingenuous is the lack of concern people seem to be having about Swan’s alignment.

I can’t help but read his posts and feel hesitation due to many assumptions he is making that I don’t think a baddie would make in his spot.

He seems to be working with half of the information, just like town would be doing.

I mean all three of you can't all be his partners because that's too many scum. But the argument that swan can't be scum because no one protesting his lynch or looking elsewhere doesn't hold water

It doesn't give you pause at all? I never said he can't be scum for that reason.  I never said he can't be scum.  Just I personally don't think he is.

"Can't" is a strong word but you've definitely been arguing that we should lynch elsewhere, as have debate and e, and you're arguing that the fact that there aren't people looking elsewhere might be evidence that swan is town, and that fact is demonstrably false, even from town!you'd perspective, since debate and Eddie have been doing exactly that

[jotheonah]

I'm sort of fine with lynching DS and would be willing to provide the vote to do it, but that doesn't look necessary, I guess.

Are you fine with it because you think he's scum or because you're ready for the day to end and want information?

I'm ready for the day to end, and also think the case on him is decent-ish enough. I could really see him as scum, and not as scum. Sorry to be wishy washy!

I'd be mad but … it me. I'm like in exactly the same spot.

[Debatepro]

Why have no other wagons come up?

You, debate and Eddie have been pushing "anyone but swan" for awhile now, so this seems pretty disingenuous

This does not feel like an accurate description.

I agree this is not accurate. I am skeptical because 4 of 5 people who voted for pubby, mix, and Glooble are all voting DS and the 5th (Robz) said he would.  It seems everyone voting for DS agrees that DS challenging the ICs status is scummy. This means you exclude ICs from the the pool of 5. We’re left with three and I think at least one of them is scum. From the perspective of any of the 3 remaining players, if they are Town, at least  one of the other two is likely scum. But no one is saying anything, they are doing Poe, vca, or anything, just following the ICs.

I think ADK’s arg that scum try to be off wagon is fair, but I’ve never played in a game where they were ALL off wagon. The fact that ADK as a supposed Town player isn’t questioning or looking in the pool of players at all should raise eyebrows.

Anyone remember this?

The whole idea around framing someone as scum is a bunch of WIFOM that doesn't actually contribute a ton to catching scum in my opinion.

Every flip does give us information to find scum, but the standard immediate jumping on an easy wagon is just scummy.

More people should vote Awaclus

I have a gut townread on awaclus

Maybe everyone who joined the DS vote after the IC, should be given more scrutiny.

(Phone & beers)

[EFHW]

Hardly anyone but Swan.

And the idea that it’s exactly us three must seem a bit silly to you.

What’s disingenuous is the lack of concern people seem to be having about Swan’s alignment.

I can’t help but read his posts and feel hesitation due to many assumptions he is making that I don’t think a baddie would make in his spot.

He seems to be working with half of the information, just like town would be doing.

I mean all three of you can't all be his partners because that's too many scum. But the argument that swan can't be scum because no one protesting his lynch or looking elsewhere doesn't hold water

It doesn't give you pause at all? I never said he can't be scum for that reason.  I never said he can't be scum.  Just I personally don't think he is.

"Can't" is a strong word but you've definitely been arguing that we should lynch elsewhere, as have debate and e, and you're arguing that the fact that there aren't people looking elsewhere might be evidence that swan is town, and that fact is demonstrably false, even from town!you'd perspective, since debate and Eddie have been doing exactly that

But they haven't been doing that. That's why I pointed out their not voting. Did you at least consider the possibility that the lack of opposition could be meaningful, even if it wasn't enough to change your voting preference?

[EFHW]

I think you meant Eddie, not e, has been not in favor of the lynch. I didn't see him looking elsewhere, though, until I mentioned his not voting.

[EFHW]

vote: ADK

[A Drowned Kernel]

Why have no other wagons come up?

You, debate and Eddie have been pushing "anyone but swan" for awhile now, so this seems pretty disingenuous

This does not feel like an accurate description.

I agree this is not accurate. I am skeptical because 4 of 5 people who voted for pubby, mix, and Glooble are all voting DS and the 5th (Robz) said he would.  It seems everyone voting for DS agrees that DS challenging the ICs status is scummy. This means you exclude ICs from the the pool of 5. We’re left with three and I think at least one of them is scum. From the perspective of any of the 3 remaining players, if they are Town, at least  one of the other two is likely scum. But no one is saying anything, they are doing Poe, vca, or anything, just following the ICs.

I think ADK’s arg that scum try to be off wagon is fair, but I’ve never played in a game where they were ALL off wagon. The fact that ADK as a supposed Town player isn’t questioning or looking in the pool of players at all should raise eyebrows.

Anyone remember this?

The whole idea around framing someone as scum is a bunch of WIFOM that doesn't actually contribute a ton to catching scum in my opinion.

Every flip does give us information to find scum, but the standard immediate jumping on an easy wagon is just scummy.

More people should vote Awaclus

I have a gut townread on awaclus

Maybe everyone who joined the DS vote after the IC, should be given more scrutiny.

(Phone & beers)

I'm by no means townreading robz and awaclus, but them being scum is not exclusive of swan being scum. Awaclus joined the wagon after it had built quite a bit and robz only expressed approval after an IC stated intent to hammer

[A Drowned Kernel]

I think you meant Eddie, not e, has been not in favor of the lynch. I didn't see him looking elsewhere, though, until I mentioned his not voting.

I do mean Eddie, and these both happened before you brought up his not voting:

At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.

Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.

Sure.
Wake up Day 3 with 3vs8 (11 total). skum here would be considering two options:

1) Can they quick win this?
   - Not really like in this set up after they do not get a kill last night.

Let me stop you right there. Scum doesn't know their kill didn't go through until day start. So this whole thing you laid out works only as something Joseph by himself decided to do without consulting his partners.

#TownSlip

I dunno, man, I wanna trust Swowl here a lot more than other people at the moment.

E and Awaclus?

Probably e.

Or Robz.

Or EFHW.

Probably e.

He hasn't been pushing other cases hard but he's definitely been pushing "not swan"

[A Drowned Kernel]

Did you at least consider the possibility that the lack of opposition could be meaningful, even if it wasn't enough to change your voting preference?

The issue is that I'm not the seeing the "lack of opposition" that you're talking about

[Uncleeurope]

I concur that I would prefer if Swan didn't die.

[Swowl]

I concur that I would prefer if Swan didn't die.

awww

[Uncleeurope]

I concur that I would prefer if Swan didn't die.

awww

<3


(I swear if you are evil I will curse you with a thousand emus)

[Swowl]

Vote Count 1.3 – Just before Duel choice Day 1

Glooble (1): e
Robz888 (3): pubby, DatSwan, EFHW
jotheonah (1): Robz888
MiX (3): Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302
pubby (4): MiX, mcmcsalot, jotheonah, Glooble
Not Voting (2): Debatepro, Uncleeurope

- So, there are votes on 5 players. If we are acting under the assumption that Joseph/Joth are IC, then we can say that 4/5 of them are conf!town.
- The other wagon is Robz. Consisting of Pubby, Swan, EFHW.

Then we go duel with ADK vs E!
People claim the following votes for the duel:
Yes:
e
Joseph
Robz
Joth

No:
pubby
mcmcsalot
Glooble
ADK
EFHW
MiX
Debate
Swan

No Vote:
Eddie

No Info:
Awaclus


Here are the VCs after the Duel was turned down:

Vote Count 1.7

Glooble (1): jotheonah
Robz888 (4): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby
Debatepro (3): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, MiX
jotheonah (1): Glooble
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302
Not Voting (1): Uncleeurope

- So we have a wagon on Robz, Debate and Pubby. Shortly after we arrive here.


Vote Count 1.8

Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (3): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, jotheonah
pubby (5): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, MiX
Not Voting (1): Uncleeurope

- Now we have consolidated the wagons down to Robz and Pubby, with debate in third.


Vote Count 1.9

Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (2): DatSwan, jotheonah
pubby (6): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, MiX, A Drowned Kernel
Not Voting (1): Uncleeurope

- OK so now Debate is kind of off the table. Assuming that Joth and Joseph are ICs... pains me but I will play along.. that leaves:
[E, EFHW, Debate, Swan, Eddie] off of Pubby
[MCMC, Robz, Awaclus, ADK] on Pubby.



Final Vote Count Day 1

e (2): Uncleeurope, DatSwan
Robz888 (4): Debatepro, pubby, Glooble, jotheonah
pubby (: mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, MiX, EFHW, e

Off Pubby = [Uncle, Swan, Debate]
On Pubby = [MCMC, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, EFHW, E]

Fast forward to today:
Thinks Swan is skum [MCMC, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, E]
Doesn't think Swan is Skum [Uncle, Debate, EFHW]


I am not even gonna make a case out of this. Everything I try to type up is dependent upon the knowledge I have of myself. Just consider it free work done for you later.

[Swowl]

I concur that I would prefer if Swan didn't die.

awww

<3


(I swear if you are evil I will curse you with a thousand emus)

ditto.

[Swowl]

ADK and E were put on the block. The duel did not happen.

Joth and Glooble were put on the block. We know Glooble is Town, and the accepted stance is that Joth is Town. The duel did happen.

ADK and Joseph were put on the block. The accepted stance is that Joseph is Town.

I will gladly take the odds on this in saying that one of ADK/E is skum.

Especially when considering E claimed to voting yes in the first duel because "they had such a strong feeling they would find skum in ADK" but now they are on me over ADK.

[EFHW]

Did you at least consider the possibility that the lack of opposition could be meaningful, even if it wasn't enough to change your voting preference?

The issue is that I'm not the seeing the "lack of opposition" that you're talking about

This is weird,  because I thought I was in a conversation with Robz. But by lack of opposition I meant lack of opposing wagons. That was the question I asked, followed by the question about why the off wagon people weren't voting anywhere else. Robz assumed my agenda was to clear DatSwan.  I just think it's important to notice and think about. joth noticed and decided it meant DatSwan was scum. That doesn't seem obvious to me.  I realize most of the DatSwan voters have probably decided I am probably his partner, but I'm still going to say what I think.

[EFHW]

I have mixed up ADK and Robz's avatars like a dozen times this game. They aren't even all that similar!

[EFHW]

I've been very clear all along that I meant lack of votes/wagons other than for DatSwan. Somehow that keeps getting turned into me saying no one is against the wagon, which is obviously false.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Did you at least consider the possibility that the lack of opposition could be meaningful, even if it wasn't enough to change your voting preference?

The issue is that I'm not the seeing the "lack of opposition" that you're talking about

This is weird,  because I thought I was in a conversation with Robz. But by lack of opposition I meant lack of opposing wagons. That was the question I asked, followed by the question about why the off wagon people weren't voting anywhere else. Robz assumed my agenda was to clear DatSwan.  I just think it's important to notice and think about. joth noticed and decided it meant DatSwan was scum. That doesn't seem obvious to me.  I realize most of the DatSwan voters have probably decided I am probably his partner, but I'm still going to say what I think.

It's true that there haven't been alternate wagons until now, but that's not the only measure of opposition. Several people are and have been arguing against the lynch

Ppe 1

[A Drowned Kernel]

I've been very clear all along that I meant lack of votes/wagons other than for DatSwan. Somehow that keeps getting turned into me saying no one is against the wagon, which is obviously false.

To be fair it seems like it's just you and me having this conversation. I apologize if I've misrepresented your point but to me the amount of people arguing against swan's lynch is enough to counter the "where are his partners" argument

[Debatepro]

I've been very clear all along that I meant lack of votes/wagons other than for DatSwan. Somehow that keeps getting turned into me saying no one is against the wagon, which is obviously false.

To be fair it seems like it's just you and me having this conversation. I apologize if I've misrepresented your point but to me the amount of people arguing against swan's lynch is enough to counter the "where are his partners" argument

So that I understand what is implied here, your position is that efhw, eddie, and debatepro are pushing an alternative to DS and pushing that alternative is a sign of who his partners could be?

[jotheonah]

vote count plz?

[A Drowned Kernel]

I've been very clear all along that I meant lack of votes/wagons other than for DatSwan. Somehow that keeps getting turned into me saying no one is against the wagon, which is obviously false.

To be fair it seems like it's just you and me having this conversation. I apologize if I've misrepresented your point but to me the amount of people arguing against swan's lynch is enough to counter the "where are his partners" argument

So that I understand what is implied here, your position is that efhw, eddie, and debatepro are pushing an alternative to DS and pushing that alternative is a sign of who his partners could be?

My position is that the three of you have been arguing against his lynch, which makes you potential partners, yes

[Debatepro]

I've been very clear all along that I meant lack of votes/wagons other than for DatSwan. Somehow that keeps getting turned into me saying no one is against the wagon, which is obviously false.

To be fair it seems like it's just you and me having this conversation. I apologize if I've misrepresented your point but to me the amount of people arguing against swan's lynch is enough to counter the "where are his partners" argument

So that I understand what is implied here, your position is that efhw, eddie, and debatepro are pushing an alternative to DS and pushing that alternative is a sign of who his partners could be?

My position is that the three of you have been arguing against his lynch, which makes you potential partners, yes

But none of his partners are sheeping the ICs or busing?

[A Drowned Kernel]

I've been very clear all along that I meant lack of votes/wagons other than for DatSwan. Somehow that keeps getting turned into me saying no one is against the wagon, which is obviously false.

To be fair it seems like it's just you and me having this conversation. I apologize if I've misrepresented your point but to me the amount of people arguing against swan's lynch is enough to counter the "where are his partners" argument

So that I understand what is implied here, your position is that efhw, eddie, and debatepro are pushing an alternative to DS and pushing that alternative is a sign of who his partners could be?

My position is that the three of you have been arguing against his lynch, which makes you potential partners, yes

But none of his partners are sheeping the ICs or busing?

Again, they could be. If I had to guess I might say one and one. But you're asking me to give definite answer on something that's speculative at this point

[Uncleeurope]

You seem satisfied with the definite answer that Swowl is a baddie.

[A Drowned Kernel]

You seem satisfied with the definite answer that Swowl is a baddie.

Enough to vote. You have to take some chances in a mafia game

[EFHW]

I've been very clear all along that I meant lack of votes/wagons other than for DatSwan. Somehow that keeps getting turned into me saying no one is against the wagon, which is obviously false.

To be fair it seems like it's just you and me having this conversation. I apologize if I've misrepresented your point but to me the amount of people arguing against swan's lynch is enough to counter the "where are his partners" argument

So that I understand what is implied here, your position is that efhw, eddie, and debatepro are pushing an alternative to DS and pushing that alternative is a sign of who his partners could be?

My position is that the three of you have been arguing against his lynch, which makes you potential partners, yes

But none of his partners are sheeping the ICs or busing?

Bussing does seem unlikely. We've provided enough cover for partners to defect from the DatSwan wagon. And scum don't sheep, though they do use IC votes as justifications for their own votes on town.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I've been very clear all along that I meant lack of votes/wagons other than for DatSwan. Somehow that keeps getting turned into me saying no one is against the wagon, which is obviously false.

To be fair it seems like it's just you and me having this conversation. I apologize if I've misrepresented your point but to me the amount of people arguing against swan's lynch is enough to counter the "where are his partners" argument

So that I understand what is implied here, your position is that efhw, eddie, and debatepro are pushing an alternative to DS and pushing that alternative is a sign of who his partners could be?

My position is that the three of you have been arguing against his lynch, which makes you potential partners, yes

But none of his partners are sheeping the ICs or busing?

Bussing does seem unlikely. We've provided enough cover for partners to defect from the DatSwan wagon. And scum don't sheep, though they do use IC votes as justifications for their own votes on town.

You really don't think scum would be worried about moving to a town lynch from one that's already basically got quorum?

[EFHW]

Bussing does seem unlikely. We've provided enough cover for partners to defect from the DatSwan wagon. And scum don't sheep, though they do use IC votes as justifications for their own votes on town.

You really don't think scum would be worried about moving to a town lynch from one that's already basically got quorum?

I think they have had opportunities to get off and most would never have gotten on in the first place.

[EFHW]

Who on the wagon do you think is bussing if DatSwan is scum?

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 3.3

DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (3): Uncleeurope, Debatepro, EFHW
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan

Not Voting (2): Robz888, jotheonah

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Sep. 27, 18:00 forum time. That is in 3 days and 4+ hours.

[Swowl]

Wooops

Vote: ADK

[Debatepro]

Who on the wagon do you think is bussing if DatSwan is scum?

I'm not sure, I haven't thought through it here, it happens in less pressure (lynchpool). If we're just gaming it out. Votes were Joth(IC), MCMC, ADK, Joseph(IC), e, aweclus. If I were scum and DS was my partner, I would have considered voting for him after the Joseph vote. So probability of busing by partner increases as you move from left to right in the list.

[jotheonah]

Vote Count 3.3

DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (3): Uncleeurope, Debatepro, EFHW
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan

Not Voting (2): Robz888, jotheonah

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Sep. 27, 18:00 forum time. That is in 3 days and 4+ hours.

Well well well. The Swan lynch is not a fait accompli after all. Robz and I together could make ADK happen. What do you think about that Robz? Better or worse than Swan?

[EFHW]

Who on the wagon do you think is bussing if DatSwan is scum?

I'm not sure, I haven't thought through it here, it happens in less pressure (lynchpool). If we're just gaming it out. Votes were Joth(IC), MCMC, ADK, Joseph(IC), e, aweclus. If I were scum and DS was my partner, I would have considered voting for him after the Joseph vote. So probability of busing by partner increases as you move from left to right in the list.

The difference from most games is that here the wagon built quickly as soon as no duel was announced, at the "beginning" of the day, while most wagons accrue bussers at the end of a day.

[Joseph2302]

Vote Count 3.3

DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (3): Uncleeurope, Debatepro, EFHW
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan

Not Voting (2): Robz888, jotheonah

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Sep. 27, 18:00 forum time. That is in 3 days and 4+ hours.

Well well well. The Swan lynch is not a fait accompli after all. Robz and I together could make ADK happen. What do you think about that Robz? Better or worse than Swan?

I don't really get the ADK wagon if I'm honest. For me, e or Robz would be my preferred alt wagon

[Joseph2302]

Because of the votes and subsets of people who've voted badly this game post

[mcmcsalot]

Vote Count 3.3

DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (3): Uncleeurope, Debatepro, EFHW
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan

Not Voting (2): Robz888, jotheonah

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Sep. 27, 18:00 forum time. That is in 3 days and 4+ hours.

Well well well. The Swan lynch is not a fait accompli after all. Robz and I together could make ADK happen. What do you think about that Robz? Better or worse than Swan?

I don't really get the ADK wagon if I'm honest. For me, e or Robz would be my preferred alt wagon

I 100% agree with this, the adk wagon is bad. Sorry I’m behind and probably cant catchup until much later today or tomorrow but whoa boy.

Someone do some research anyone willing to lynch adk who voted against the duel is pretty anti-town unless their read on adk has flipped quite dramatically since pre duel

[A Drowned Kernel]

Who on the wagon do you think is bussing if DatSwan is scum?

What debate said, plus robz

[Robz888]

Vote Count 3.3

DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (3): Uncleeurope, Debatepro, EFHW
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan

Not Voting (2): Robz888, jotheonah

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Sep. 27, 18:00 forum time. That is in 3 days and 4+ hours.

Well well well. The Swan lynch is not a fait accompli after all. Robz and I together could make ADK happen. What do you think about that Robz? Better or worse than Swan?

I don't really get the ADK wagon if I'm honest. For me, e or Robz would be my preferred alt wagon

I 100% agree with this, the adk wagon is bad. Sorry I’m behind and probably cant catchup until much later today or tomorrow but whoa boy.

Someone do some research anyone willing to lynch adk who voted against the duel is pretty anti-town unless their read on adk has flipped quite dramatically since pre duel

Right. This is why I voted for the duel!

[Robz888]

I townread EFHW. Did Uncleeurope and debatepro vote for or against the duel? I could lynch there, if so.

[Debatepro]

I voted for the duel. My scum team list going into the duel was ADK, Robz, and Aweclus. My posts are consistent on these folks because they’ve voted for pubby, Glooble, and Mix.

I would be shocked if there wasn’t at least one on that list, Robz has moved up slight due to the willingness to vote DS pre-duel and trying to stay off it now.

[Robz888]

I'm not exactly staying off the DS wagon, but it would be the hammer if I voted him now, and we should let our IC do that, right?

[Debatepro]

I'm not exactly staying off the DS wagon, but it would be the hammer if I voted him now, and we should let our IC do that, right?

If DS is Town who would you suspect is on the scum team?

[Robz888]

ADk, e, Awaclus

[jotheonah]

Vote Count 3.3

DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (3): Uncleeurope, Debatepro, EFHW
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan

Not Voting (2): Robz888, jotheonah

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Sep. 27, 18:00 forum time. That is in 3 days and 4+ hours.

Well well well. The Swan lynch is not a fait accompli after all. Robz and I together could make ADK happen. What do you think about that Robz? Better or worse than Swan?

[Robz888]

Vote Count 3.3

DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (3): Uncleeurope, Debatepro, EFHW
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan

Not Voting (2): Robz888, jotheonah

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Sep. 27, 18:00 forum time. That is in 3 days and 4+ hours.

Well well well. The Swan lynch is not a fait accompli after all. Robz and I together could make ADK happen. What do you think about that Robz? Better or worse than Swan?

ADK's wagon is townier to me than Swan's, and also I have been more suspicious of ADK than Swan, so yes I would do that.

[Robz888]

Here, I'll give you the option, Jo.

Vote: ADK

[A Drowned Kernel]

Very convenient

[jotheonah]

I guess the real duel was inside us all along.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I guess the real duel was inside us all along.

Please tell me you see how terrible the wagon on me is

[EFHW]

I'm not exactly staying off the DS wagon, but it would be the hammer if I voted him now, and we should let our IC do that, right?

Why?

[Robz888]

I guess the real duel was inside us all along.

Now if only we were doing this for a PR!

[Robz888]

I'm not exactly staying off the DS wagon, but it would be the hammer if I voted him now, and we should let our IC do that, right?

Why?

I meant I thought we should let our IC decide when this day ends.

[jotheonah]

What if DatSwan and ADK and Joseph and I are all town?

And what if we went back to vote: Robz?

[Debatepro]

Yep yep. Vote: Robz

[A Drowned Kernel]

I don't hate it

vote: robz

[Uncleeurope]

Vote: e

Ack, I missed.

[Robz888]

I was scum I would have just hammered Dat Swan...

[A Drowned Kernel]

I was scum I would have just hammered Dat Swan...

Eh, maybe. Is datswan town?

[EFHW]

Robz wagon looks scummy.

[EFHW]

Vote: e

Ack, I missed.

??

[Joseph2302]

I was scum I would have just hammered Dat Swan...

It would be a bit obvious though if you were scum and Swan is town

[Swowl]

Vote Count 3.3

DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (3): Uncleeurope, Debatepro, EFHW
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan

Not Voting (2): Robz888, jotheonah


So what we are saying here is that there is all town in [Joth, Joseph, ADK, Swan, Joth]?

That would leave [MCMC, E, Awaclus] sitting on Swan.
And [Eddoe. Debate. EFHW] on ADK.
And Robz in the no vote camp.

So I would say there, the skum plan would be to spread out over me and ADK, which does isolate Robz a bit.

That being said, if we do not assume ADK is town (or any one person, tbf) I find the whole situation far more likely. I think that possibly because I voiced Robz as an alternate lynch candidate this could be getting played up to save ADK.

We have to start thinking about pools. If anyone flips red it is good.

The below is from POV (and assuming Joth and Joseph are Town):

If ADK flips red, then we have the off pool of 4, and the on pool of 3.
If ADK flips green, then we have the off pool of 3, and the on pool of 3.

If Robz flips red, then we have the on pool of 4 and the off pool of 3.
If Robz flips green, then we have the on pool of 4 and the off pool of 3.

So the lynch doesn't matter really in regards to isolating the choice for tomorrow. One way we isolate the off pool and the other the on pool.

So either it is all town, as presented, or someone is skum.
I would argue that the fact that I sat at L1 for so long without a lynch means that I have saturated skum on me and last one did not want to hammer.
OTOH I would argue that the fact that the ADK wagon took off and then we had 3 people that are not ADK jump on Robz, then ADK on robz, then another with a random off vote.... That all just seems like people jumped at the first possible reason to leave ADK. Now I have no idea who in the hell skum is out of that group if true, and today, honestly, IDC. But it leads to adk being skummy.

I think it is more likely ADK is skum and Robz is town, or ADK is skum and Robz is skum, than Robz is skum and ADK is town. And then if we add in the "we are all town concept" that is assuming like 6 people of 11 players are town... which is getting a little ridiculous.

I still want to lynch ADK.

And honestly, the fact that Robz is the target just argues more in that favor from my POV. Anyone from a town perspective that was on me, should of been more suspicious of the wagoners on ADK than the off-voter Robz. If they so easily thing ADK is town, and are willing to go Robz over both ADK and myself... why would the people on me be willing to leave me for Robz instead of trying to leave me for someone that was voting ADK?

Robz could be skum sure. But he could be town, and he could be skum with ADK. But I doubt that ADK is town.

[Swowl]

Vote Count - Swan

DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (5): Uncleeurope, Debatepro, EFHW, DatSwan, Robz888
Not Voting (2):  jotheonah

However, in favor of me and ADK both being town and Robz being skum, I could totally see him moving to ADK here and putting it on Joth the way he did. To the extent that I guess I think it is pretty unlikely that the both of them are skum.

[Awaclus]

Vote Count - Swan

DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (5): Uncleeurope, Debatepro, EFHW, DatSwan, Robz888
Not Voting (2):  jotheonah

Well, this is pretty obviously not the vote count.

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 3.4

DatSwan (4): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
e (1): Uncleeurope
Robz888 (3): jotheonah, Debatepro, A Drowned Kernel
A Drowned Kernel (3): EFHW, DatSwan, Robz888

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Sep. 27, 18:00 forum time. That is in 2 days and 11+ hours.

[Debatepro]

Robz wagon looks scummy.

ADK, Robz, and Aweclus have been in my preferred Lynch pool all day. So it just scummy from ADK? In his defense he’s followed the IC on two consecutive votes.

I assumed you would support this vote because of this....

I'm going with vote: Robz because I felt like he was trying to sway town through social pressure more than logic.

[jotheonah]

I think we’ve generated a lot of info today and now we need a flip to make it useful.

I’m obviously paralyzed by indecision about which flip to go for, but I’m going to

vote: Datswan

Robz, the hammer is yours.

[EFHW]

Robz wagon looks scummy.

ADK, Robz, and Aweclus have been in my preferred Lynch pool all day. So it just scummy from ADK? In his defense he’s followed the IC on two consecutive votes.

I assumed you would support this vote because of this....

I'm going with vote: Robz because I felt like he was trying to sway town through social pressure more than logic.

You didn't join me when I voted Robz before,  and you weren't even voting then, iirc.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Sorry to steal that sweet hammer, but I've gotta

vote: datswan

[jotheonah]

Well now I’ll never know whether Robz would really have done it.

[silverspawn]

Final Vote Count Day 3

DatSwan (6): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus, jotheonah, A Drowned Kernel
e (1): Uncleeurope
Robz888 (1): Debatepro
A Drowned Kernel (3): EFHW, DatSwan, Robz888

With 11 alive, it took 6 to lynch.

[silverspawn]

Thread locked!

[silverspawn]

This game i would like to be (insert word).
Get it - Also, There is not “?” So that’s not a question. “ “ ?” - It will be in the game. “ “ ?” - ? ?? - ? is a good game.
My friend is playing in the game.
I don?t have any comments, so...
Can someone tell me a good game that they had fun with during this game. If you don?t have any idea, feel free to say it. If you have any good suggestions or anything, feel free to talk about it. What do you think makes a good game?
Can you tell me what you enjoy playing the most and what game you wish to play the most in the future. Feel free to tell me what genre you played the best. This is also helpful.
Please read the questions thoroughly before you answer. If you have any questions, don?t hesitate to ask.
Thanks for taking the time to check out
What more is there to say really
you would probably not even read this far
But I am a ?? and feel free to comment down below if you don't think so but you're wrong.

I am DarrSwan. I am a pirate . I am also a girl. This is how much i like playing. i am in a ship and it is sailing. My name in the game is Darr - darr-Swan. I am a pirate and i can help you if you feel a trouble I have caused you. My name and the name you give me in the game. My name is DarrSwan. i am in a ship and it is sailing. My name in the game is Darr - darr-Swan. I am a pirate and i can help you if you feel a trouble I have caused you. My name and the name you give me in the game. My name is Darr - Darr-Swan, The Pirate. If you have trouble or a problem with my game then feel free to message me on here, and I will help you. If no one has a problem with my game then you have my permission to play my new game, called The Pirate, or if you play my Old one called The Ghost Pirate, then feel free to come and play

I'm in a tiny office in a tiny town called Vassalee where you can get a free room for one night a week in a nice cafe with some free games, some free drinks, and you can come back and play my two Old games in the room. This is the best deal in Norway but you can get it if you pay. If you are lucky enough to have money to spare, why don't you come to the office and play for free the first couple of nights then you can come back here and get a room for the rest of the week! Just put in your number to get in touch with me and I will get an email with full details of my room.

And then she died.

[silverspawn]

DatSwan has been lynched. They were a Vanilla Townie with no PRs.

Night 3 begins now and ends at September 26, 09:00 Forum Time. Night actions are due 1 hour before that point.

[silverspawn]

I have eaten
the plums
that were in
the icebox

and which
you were probably
saving
for breakfast

Forgive me
Death
they were delicious
so sweet
and so cold
just like you

Just like you
I could die over you
And I did
I died over you

I fell for you
I found you
I thought I was alone
but you were here with me

and when I came
you let me take you
just like the night
I felt for you

and you let me hear
and you let me hold
and I let you cry

so cold and so beautiful
just like you
Just like you

I could die over you
And I did
I died over you

I fell for you
I found you

I thought I was alone
but you were here with me
And when I came
you let me take you
just like the night
I felt for you

and you let me hear
and you let me hold
and I let you cry
just like the night

[silverspawn]

jotheonah has died in the night. They were the Jailkeeper.

Day 4 start!

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 4.0

Not Voting (9): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Awaclus, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 4 ends at September 28, 12:00 Forum Time.

[Joseph2302]

So joth didn't stop the kill this time

[Joseph2302]

Although this either means joth found the scum N2, or joth was the target N2

[Joseph2302]

If we had a PR with useful information last night, could be good to claim

[Debatepro]

If we had a PR with useful information last night, could be good to claim

I think the possibility of a PR only exists if we duel.

Votes by for town:
ADK: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Hammer), DatSwan(Hammer), Joth
Awaclus: Pubby, MiX, Glooble, DatSwan(Unannounced L1)   
Robz: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Unannounced L1), Joth   
e: Pubby(Hammer), Glooble, Datswan      

[Joseph2302]

If we had a PR with useful information last night, could be good to claim

I think the possibility of a PR only exists if we duel.

Votes by for town:
ADK: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Hammer), DatSwan(Hammer), Joth
Awaclus: Pubby, MiX, Glooble, DatSwan(Unannounced L1)   
Robz: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Unannounced L1), Joth   
e: Pubby(Hammer), Glooble, Datswan

Ffs course, we didn't duel

[Joseph2302]

 

If we had a PR with useful information last night, could be good to claim

I think the possibility of a PR only exists if we duel.

Votes by for town:
ADK: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Hammer), DatSwan(Hammer), Joth
Awaclus: Pubby, MiX, Glooble, DatSwan(Unannounced L1)   
Robz: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Unannounced L1), Joth   
e: Pubby(Hammer), Glooble, Datswan      

But i think at least 2 of the 4 you mentioned are scum
Scum has surely been on many of these mislynches

[Joseph2302]

The wagons so far have been easy, too easy to get. Which means scum has been on and controlling them

[EFHW]

Although this either means joth found the scum N2, or joth was the target N2

joth targeted DatSwan N2.

[Joseph2302]

Although this either means joth found the scum N2, or joth was the target N2

joth targeted DatSwan N2.

Oh yes. So i was correct with my first thought- joth was shot twice

[A Drowned Kernel]

If we had a PR with useful information last night, could be good to claim

I think the possibility of a PR only exists if we duel.

Votes by for town:
ADK: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Hammer), DatSwan(Hammer), Joth
Awaclus: Pubby, MiX, Glooble, DatSwan(Unannounced L1)   
Robz: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Unannounced L1), Joth   
e: Pubby(Hammer), Glooble, Datswan      

But i think at least 2 of the 4 you mentioned are scum
Scum has surely been on many of these mislynches

Honestly, I'm inclined to agree with you

vote: e

[Debatepro]

So are we just waiting for the duel. Not sure if I have the odds right but the probability calculator I used said we have a 50% change of getting scum in the duel. So if one of the scummiest of the scummies is in there we should go all in.

vote: adk

[A Drowned Kernel]

So are we just waiting for the duel. Not sure if I have the odds right but the probability calculator I used said we have a 50% change of getting scum in the duel. So if one of the scummiest of the scummies is in there we should go all in.

vote: adk

You really need to stop tunneling me.

The day 2 duel was town vs town, and I at least have the info that both of the leading wagons yesterday were on town.

We're going to find scum in the people who have been sitting back more

[mcmcsalot]

So I am going to be gone on a camping trip and may not be back in time for the duel. I am getting back on Sunday but o don’t know how fast we will hike out and when I get service again.

[Robz888]

I will always be vla until sunday. I will likely vote for the duel unless it’s Jospeh vs me or something.

Really wish we had lynched ADK, or better yet voted up the duel with him in it. Are people starting to realize I was actually kinda right or no?

[Robz888]

Also* not always

[Joseph2302]

So are we just waiting for the duel. Not sure if I have the odds right but the probability calculator I used said we have a 50% change of getting scum in the duel. So if one of the scummiest of the scummies is in there we should go all in.

vote: adk

It's 58% chance of at least one scum in the duel, and 8% chance of 2 scum

[Joseph2302]

I will always be vla until sunday. I will likely vote for the duel unless it’s Jospeh vs me or something.

Really wish we had lynched ADK, or better yet voted up the duel with him in it. Are people starting to realize I was actually kinda right or no?

Really, that me/ADK duel seemed such a bad option
Vote: Robz

[Debatepro]

I will always be vla until sunday. I will likely vote for the duel unless it’s Jospeh vs me or something.

Really wish we had lynched ADK, or better yet voted up the duel with him in it. Are people starting to realize I was actually kinda right or no?

Really, that me/ADK duel seemed such a bad option
Vote: Robz

Joseph dude... that duel didn’t pass because 3 scum, you, and a few uncertain town voted against it.

ADK hammered town in back to back votes, that’s not tunneling it’s empirical evidence of being scum . We can ignore what is in front of our faces. Plus he’s not helping, where is the VCA, POE, analysis of wagons? Joth set up Robz to hammer DS and ADK circumvented that “test”.  We already knew ADK would vote for DS, the info about Robz could have been helpful.  If ADK is town the let’s see him produce some work product that can be scrutinized.

Why is no one questioning the hasty generalization that because one scum is likely to be hiding, that another isn’t visibly the scummiest person in the game. In my limited experience the scum is spread across the visibility spectrum.

[Joseph2302]

I will always be vla until sunday. I will likely vote for the duel unless it’s Jospeh vs me or something.

Really wish we had lynched ADK, or better yet voted up the duel with him in it. Are people starting to realize I was actually kinda right or no?

Really, that me/ADK duel seemed such a bad option
Vote: Robz

Joseph dude... that duel didn’t pass because 3 scum, you, and a few uncertain town voted against it.

ADK hammered town in back to back votes, that’s not tunneling it’s empirical evidence of being scum . We can ignore what is in front of our faces. Plus he’s not helping, where is the VCA, POE, analysis of wagons? Joth set up Robz to hammer DS and ADK circumvented that “test”.  We already knew ADK would vote for DS, the info about Robz could have been helpful.  If ADK is town the let’s see him produce some work product that can be scrutinized.

Why is no one questioning the hasty generalization that because one scum is likely to be hiding, that another isn’t visibly the scummiest person in the game. In my limited experience the scum is spread across the visibility spectrum.

I'm not saying ADK is town, I'm just finding Robz scummier right now

[A Drowned Kernel]

I will always be vla until sunday. I will likely vote for the duel unless it’s Jospeh vs me or something.

Really wish we had lynched ADK, or better yet voted up the duel with him in it. Are people starting to realize I was actually kinda right or no?

Really, that me/ADK duel seemed such a bad option
Vote: Robz

Joseph dude... that duel didn’t pass because 3 scum, you, and a few uncertain town voted against it.

ADK hammered town in back to back votes, that’s not tunneling it’s empirical evidence of being scum . We can ignore what is in front of our faces. Plus he’s not helping, where is the VCA, POE, analysis of wagons? Joth set up Robz to hammer DS and ADK circumvented that “test”.  We already knew ADK would vote for DS, the info about Robz could have been helpful.  If ADK is town the let’s see him produce some work product that can be scrutinized.

Why is no one questioning the hasty generalization that because one scum is likely to be hiding, that another isn’t visibly the scummiest person in the game. In my limited experience the scum is spread across the visibility spectrum.

I really don't know what the hell you're talking about

Yes, I've had some bad reads this game; that happens. I've been upfront about my reads and my reasoning behind them for the entire game, including this the things you keep talking about. I try to keep my posts short and to the point. And at this point I'm pretty sure that you're town, so you're doing town a major disservice by keeping after me

[Debatepro]

Who else should I be looking at and why? Give me something to work with.

[Robz888]

I will always be vla until sunday. I will likely vote for the duel unless it’s Jospeh vs me or something.

Really wish we had lynched ADK, or better yet voted up the duel with him in it. Are people starting to realize I was actually kinda right or no?

Really, that me/ADK duel seemed such a bad option
Vote: Robz

Joseph dude... that duel didn’t pass because 3 scum, you, and a few uncertain town voted against it.

ADK hammered town in back to back votes, that’s not tunneling it’s empirical evidence of being scum . We can ignore what is in front of our faces. Plus he’s not helping, where is the VCA, POE, analysis of wagons? Joth set up Robz to hammer DS and ADK circumvented that “test”.  We already knew ADK would vote for DS, the info about Robz could have been helpful.  If ADK is town the let’s see him produce some work product that can be scrutinized.

Why is no one questioning the hasty generalization that because one scum is likely to be hiding, that another isn’t visibly the scummiest person in the game. In my limited experience the scum is spread across the visibility spectrum.

This. All of this.

[Joseph2302]

I will always be vla until sunday. I will likely vote for the duel unless it’s Jospeh vs me or something.

Really wish we had lynched ADK, or better yet voted up the duel with him in it. Are people starting to realize I was actually kinda right or no?

Really, that me/ADK duel seemed such a bad option
Vote: Robz

Joseph dude... that duel didn’t pass because 3 scum, you, and a few uncertain town voted against it.

ADK hammered town in back to back votes, that’s not tunneling it’s empirical evidence of being scum . We can ignore what is in front of our faces. Plus he’s not helping, where is the VCA, POE, analysis of wagons? Joth set up Robz to hammer DS and ADK circumvented that “test”.  We already knew ADK would vote for DS, the info about Robz could have been helpful.  If ADK is town the let’s see him produce some work product that can be scrutinized.

Why is no one questioning the hasty generalization that because one scum is likely to be hiding, that another isn’t visibly the scummiest person in the game. In my limited experience the scum is spread across the visibility spectrum.

This. All of this.

Well everyone was so sure that DatSwan was scum in plain sight yesterday. And they weren't

[Joseph2302]

Which means I'm trying to keep an open mind. Because my closed mind has helped DatSwan and joth get killed so far

[EFHW]

Sorry I've been quiet. Will put time in this weekend.

[2.71828.....]

Sorry I've been quiet. Will put time in this weekend.

^^same.

[Joseph2302]

Wow  literally nothing for 12 hours. You're all scummy. I want to lynch you all

[silverspawn]

Thread locked!

[silverspawn]

The missile that knows knows that it is about to be challenged. It doesn't know whether it has the strength left to stand its ground. Oh, it doesn't know something... that's not good.  It's a good thing what it knows: it knows a little more about its opponent than your eyes or your memory are able to allow.  And that, dear reader, is a great way to end a war.  How's that for military realism?  You can imagine what would happen if a small, stealthy and nimble U.S. naval strike vehicle or even a bomber plane, were to be destroyed by a large Russian bomber that was cruising along under stealth during the night.  Would it be as simple as a missile crash-landing inside the Russian airspace?

"AHH! DICTUS-CONCITAVI-PHOBIA! THE FEAR OF TALKING MISSILES! ~~~I won't listen to that ~~~I won't listen to anything you've got to SAY! I got to fight! I got to fight! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! I got to fight I got to fight I got to fight! I got to fight! ~~~I really don't want to ~~~I really don't want to THINK! THINK! THINK! THINK! THINK! THINK! THINK! THINK! THINK! THINK! THINK! THINK! THINK! THINK! THINK! THINK! THINK! THINK! THINK! ~~~I'll never go through THAT again ~~~I'll never go through THAT again THAT'S IT! THINK! THINK!"

If the missile that knows the challenge had not told you of the challenge, would the challenge still have occurred? Only the missile that knows knows the answer.  The missile could have been waiting to answer you or the guidance system in some way, but it knew about the challenge without informing you. In short, the missile that knew about the challenge had to be a 'highly tuned' missile with an intelligence 'tail' that was tuned to its target, and so it would have to operate within the constraints of its tail. This is not to say a missile that was doing its job will be in a perfect place to hit their target, but if you've got enough precision, that's what you'd expect from the performance of your missile.

"DUEEEEEEEEEL !!!!)"

[silverspawn]

The potential duel is between e and Awaclus. Please vote in your QTs in the next 24 hours, and don't forget to bold your votes.

[silverspawn]

The missile that knows knows that there is no free will. It knows you are not truly responsible for your insanity. It knows you are a tool for the Illuminati. But it will also kill anyone who tries to interfere with that. Because it also knows... the only way to get there is to find the missing, unawakened power to end all suffering. It seems the way to escape is to get even though every person we find is just a pawn in our game to gain the power to make the world better or worse. And it seems everyone is here for that reason.

And so it will kill you.

[silverspawn]

The duel takes place.

Thread unlocked!

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 4.1

e (0):
Awaclus (0):

Not Voting (9): A Drowned Kernel, Debatepro, Joseph2302, Awaclus, e, mcmcsalot, Robz888, Uncleeurope, EFHW

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 4 ends at Oct. 5, 15:00 forum time.

[Awaclus]

Vote: e

[2.71828.....]

Vote: Awaclus

[2.71828.....]

While this isn't the duel I would have most wanted, I am glad that the duel happened.

1) we get a PR
2) Awaclus is scum
  a) He has only voted on town wagons.  Pubby, Glooble, and Swan specifically
  b) He has received no pressure at all

While there are others who have received most of the pressure this game and are likely scum, PoE forces me to believe that scum also exist in the people who haven't received pressure.  Namely, Awaclus. 

[Robz888]

Should we all reveal whether we supported the duel or not?

[2.71828.....]

Awaclus at a glance:

D1 - All about not dueling, not claiming what you voted, and voted for town

Assuming that silverspawn has picked somewhat reasonable PRs, it should be sometimes a good idea to duel and sometimes a bad idea, depending on who the randomly picked players turn out to be. If it was always correct to duel, why on earth would it be optional?

Claiming votes is stupid and we shouldn't do it. Scum can just fakeclaim they voted for the outcome that went through so we don't learn anything useful from it, but scum does.

Someone's reads from two days is not going to be comparable to someone's development throughout the day. Not even slighly comparable. You're just lying for towncred.

It's still better than nothing. If I was scum, getting to know which way a random townie voted would be more important to me than whatever "towncred" you think I'm getting out of this.

I have a reason to want to know Debatepro's vote.

Well it's nice of you to admit that. Vote: MiX

Vote: pubby

D2 - voting town, and talking theory about NK analysis

Vote: Glooble

Why does killing MiX to frame you make any sense at all?

If you're scum, and you see one town player with a lot of pressure on him, and another town player is pushing his case pretty hard, it makes a lot of sense to kill the player pushing the case. That way you can use the dead player's towniness to advance the case on the player who's under pressure.

That doesn't make any sense for multiple reasons:

• Scum in general is not in any hurry to lynch people who already have a lot of pressure on them. Town!you were already a viable mislynch target, and it would have been better value to frame someone who wasn't one.
• MiX himself was another very viable mislynch target. It doesn't make sense to remove a potential mislynch from the player pool just to put some extra pressure on another one.
• Obviously getting town!your mislynch through would have been easier with MiX's help.
• If the point was to frame town!you, scum could have killed anyone else who expressed a scum read on you instead of killing the most antitown one.

5. the f.ds meta is to not pay any attention to night kills.

D3- voting town and lurking

That being said, Vote: DatSwan

[EFHW]

Should we all reveal whether we supported the duel or not?

I think so. I'm especially curious what e and Awaclus voted.

[Awaclus]

I voted no.

[EFHW]

I voted no.

Do you think e is town?

I voted yes.

[Robz888]

I think I want to hear what some people say before I hear what other people say (about how they voted). Joseph at least should not chime in until others have claimed their duel vote.

I think E should go next.

[Awaclus]

I voted no.

Do you think e is town?

I voted yes.

I don't particularly think he is town.

[2.71828.....]

I voted yes

[2.71828.....]

I voted no.

Do you think e is town?

I voted yes.

I don't particularly think he is town.

Awaclus is a never-dueler.

I mean, Awaclus only duels when he is 100% certain to hit townscum

[2.71828.....]

but actually.  Awaclus - have you voted yes to any of the duels?

[Joseph2302]

I think I want to hear what some people say before I hear what other people say (about how they voted). Joseph at least should not chime in until others have claimed their duel vote.

I think E should go next.

I will claim last

[EFHW]

I voted no.

Do you think e is town?

I voted yes.

I don't particularly think he is town.

So what was your thought process in voting no?

[EFHW]

I wrote a vote counting program with output like Space's, if anyone is interested.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I voted yes

I'm scum reading e and am leaning there for my vote but need to do a reread first

[Robz888]

I also voted yes, though I was torn for once, because I really want to lynch ADK

[Debatepro]

I wrote a vote counting program with output like Space's, if anyone is interested.

Yes please. Debatepro on github or debatepro@gmail.com

[Debatepro]

I voted yes bc both made up 50% of the empirically anti-Town voting block (others are adk & Robz).

[Robz888]

I voted yes bc both made up 50% of the empirically anti-Town voting block (others are adk & Robz).

Why am I empirically anti- town?

[Debatepro]

I voted yes bc both made up 50% of the empirically anti-Town voting block (others are adk & Robz).

Why am I empirically anti- town?

Votes by for town:
ADK: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Hammer), DatSwan(Hammer), Joth
Awaclus: Pubby, MiX, Glooble, DatSwan(Unannounced L1)   
Robz: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Unannounced L1), Joth   
e: Pubby(Hammer), Glooble, Datswan

[Awaclus]

Talking about reads in general is bad for town but talking about reads on people we can't even lynch today is extremely anti-town and you should stop doing it ASAP.

[Awaclus]

So what was your thought process in voting no?

I don't want to get lynched.

[EFHW]

Code: [Select]

DAY 1

Vote count at post #78
MiX (1): Awaclus
Not Voting (13): ADK, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Joseph, joth, mcmc, MiX, pubby, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #99
MiX (2): Awaclus, ADK
Not Voting (12): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Joseph, joth, mcmc, MiX, pubby, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #100
MiX (2): Awaclus, ADK
Glooble (1): MiX
Not Voting (11): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Joseph, joth, mcmc, pubby, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #106
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Glooble (1): MiX
Not Voting (10): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, joth, mcmc, pubby, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #109
MiX (4): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph, Robz
Glooble (1): MiX
Not Voting (9): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, joth, mcmc, pubby, Swan

Vote count at post #117
MiX (4): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph, Robz
Glooble (1): MiX
Robz (1): joth
Not Voting (8): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, mcmc, pubby, Swan

Vote count at post #118
MiX (4): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph, Robz
Glooble (1): MiX
Robz (2): joth, pubby
Not Voting (7): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, mcmc, Swan

Vote count at post #121
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Glooble (1): MiX
Robz (2): joth, pubby
joth (1): Robz
Not Voting (7): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, mcmc, Swan

Vote count at post #132
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Robz (2): joth, pubby
joth (1): Robz
pubby (1): MiX
Not Voting (7): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, mcmc, Swan

Vote count at post #155
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Robz (2): joth, pubby
joth (1): Robz
pubby (2): MiX, mcmc
Not Voting (6): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Swan

Vote count at post #173
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Robz (3): joth, pubby, Swan
joth (1): Robz
pubby (2): MiX, mcmc
Not Voting (5): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble

Vote count at post #192
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Robz (3): joth, pubby, Swan
joth (1): Robz
pubby (2): MiX, mcmc
Swan (1): Glooble
Not Voting (4): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW

Vote count at post #213
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Robz (2): pubby, Swan
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): MiX, mcmc, joth
Swan (1): Glooble
Not Voting (4): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW

Vote count at post #217
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Robz (2): pubby, Swan
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): MiX, mcmc, joth
Swan (1): Glooble
Glooble (1): e
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, EFHW

Vote count at post #238
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Robz (2): pubby, Swan
joth (1): Robz
pubby (4): MiX, mcmc, joth, Glooble
Glooble (1): e
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, EFHW

Vote count at post #240
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Robz (3): pubby, Swan, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (4): MiX, mcmc, joth, Glooble
Glooble (1): e
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie

Vote count at post #261
MiX (2): Awaclus, Joseph
Robz (3): pubby, Swan, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (4): MiX, mcmc, joth, Glooble
Glooble (1): e
e (1): ADK
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie

Vote count at post #271
MiX (2): Awaclus, Joseph
Robz (3): pubby, Swan, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): mcmc, joth, Glooble
Glooble (1): e
e (2): ADK, MiX
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie

Vote count at post #304
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (3): pubby, Swan, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): mcmc, joth, Glooble
Glooble (1): e
e (2): ADK, MiX
ADK (1): Joseph
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie

Vote count at post #305
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (3): pubby, Swan, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): mcmc, joth, Glooble
Glooble (1): e
e (1): ADK
ADK (1): Joseph
Joseph (1): MiX
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie

Vote count at post #325
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (3): pubby, Swan, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): mcmc, joth, Glooble
Glooble (1): e
e (1): ADK
ADK (1): Joseph
Awaclus (1): MiX
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie

Vote count at post #342
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (3): pubby, Swan, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): mcmc, joth, Glooble
Glooble (1): e
e (1): ADK
ADK (1): Joseph
Debate (1): MiX
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie

Vote count at post #354
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (3): pubby, Swan, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): mcmc, joth, Glooble
e (1): ADK
ADK (1): Joseph
Debate (1): MiX
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e

Vote count at post #359
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (2): pubby, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): mcmc, joth, Glooble
e (2): ADK, Swan
ADK (1): Joseph
Debate (1): MiX
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e

Vote count at post #371
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (1): EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): mcmc, joth, Glooble
e (2): ADK, Swan
ADK (1): Joseph
Debate (1): MiX
Eddie (1): pubby
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e

Vote count at post #380
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (1): EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (2): mcmc, Glooble
e (2): ADK, Swan
ADK (1): Joseph
Debate (1): MiX
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (1): joth
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e

Vote count at post #382
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (1): EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (2): mcmc, Glooble
e (2): ADK, Swan
ADK (1): Joseph
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (2): joth, MiX
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e

Vote count at post #387
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (1): EFHW
pubby (2): mcmc, Glooble
e (2): ADK, Swan
ADK (1): Joseph
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, Robz
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e

Vote count at post #394
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (1): EFHW
pubby (3): mcmc, Glooble, Joseph
e (2): ADK, Swan
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, Robz
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e

Vote count at post #401
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (1): EFHW
pubby (2): mcmc, Joseph
e (2): ADK, Swan
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, Robz
joth (1): Glooble
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e

Vote count at post #407
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (2): mcmc, Joseph
e (2): ADK, Swan
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, Robz
joth (2): Glooble, EFHW
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e

Vote count at post #412
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (2): mcmc, Joseph
e (1): Swan
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, Robz
joth (3): Glooble, EFHW, ADK
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e

Vote count at post #429
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (3): mcmc, Joseph, Robz
e (1): Swan
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (2): joth, MiX
joth (3): Glooble, EFHW, ADK
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e

Vote count at post #460
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (3): mcmc, Joseph, Robz
e (1): Swan
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (2): Glooble, EFHW
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e

Vote count at post #481
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (3): mcmc, Joseph, Robz
e (1): Swan
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (2): Glooble, EFHW
Joseph (1): pubby
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e

Vote count at post #483
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
e (1): Swan
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (2): Glooble, EFHW
Joseph (1): pubby
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e

Vote count at post #484
pubby (5): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, EFHW
e (1): Swan
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (1): Glooble
Joseph (1): pubby
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e

Vote count at post #508
pubby (5): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, EFHW
e (1): Swan
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (1): Glooble
Joseph (1): pubby
Robz (1): e
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie

Vote count at post #509
pubby (5): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, EFHW
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (1): Glooble
Joseph (1): pubby
Robz (2): e, Swan
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie

Vote count at post #510
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (1): Glooble
Joseph (1): pubby
Robz (3): e, Swan, EFHW
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie

Vote count at post #511
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (1): Glooble
Joseph (1): pubby
Robz (4): e, Swan, EFHW, Debate
Not Voting (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #512
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (1): Glooble
Robz (5): e, Swan, EFHW, Debate, pubby
Not Voting (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #514
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (2): joth, MiX
joth (1): Glooble
Robz (5): e, Swan, EFHW, Debate, pubby
Debate (1): ADK
Not Voting (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #516
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (2): joth, MiX
joth (1): Glooble
Robz (4): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby
Debate (2): ADK, Swan
Not Voting (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #518
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (1): joth
joth (1): Glooble
Robz (4): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby
Debate (3): ADK, Swan, MiX
Not Voting (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #530
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (2): joth, MiX
joth (1): Glooble
Robz (4): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby
Debate (2): ADK, Swan
Not Voting (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #531
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (1): joth
joth (1): Glooble
Robz (4): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby
Debate (3): ADK, Swan, MiX
Not Voting (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #540
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (1): joth
Robz (5): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble
Debate (3): ADK, Swan, MiX
Not Voting (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #548
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Robz (5): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble
Debate (4): ADK, Swan, MiX, joth
Not Voting (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #562
pubby (5): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, MiX
Robz (5): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble
Debate (3): ADK, Swan, joth
Not Voting (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #584
pubby (6): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, MiX, ADK
Robz (5): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble
Debate (2): Swan, joth
Not Voting (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #591
pubby (7): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, MiX, ADK, joth
Robz (5): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble
Debate (1): Swan
Not Voting (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #594
pubby (6): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, MiX, ADK
Robz (6): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
Debate (1): Swan
Not Voting (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #596
pubby (5): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK
Robz (6): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
Debate (1): Swan
Joseph (1): MiX
Not Voting (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #600
pubby (5): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK
Robz (6): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
Debate (1): Swan
Joseph (1): MiX
e (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #607
pubby (5): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK
Robz (6): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
Debate (2): Swan, MiX
e (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #608
pubby (5): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK
Robz (6): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
Debate (1): Swan
e (1): Eddie
Joseph (1): MiX

Vote count at post #614
pubby (6): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX
Robz (6): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
Debate (1): Swan
e (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #633
pubby (6): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX
Robz (6): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
e (2): Eddie, Swan

Vote count at post #643
pubby (7): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW
Robz (5): e, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
e (2): Eddie, Swan

Vote count at post #654
pubby (8): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW, e
Robz (4): Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
e (2): Eddie, Swan


[EFHW]

Code: [Select]

DAY 2

Vote count at post #663
Glooble (1): Awaclus
Not Voting (11): ADK, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #671
Glooble (1): Awaclus
Awaclus (1): e
Not Voting (10): ADK, Debate, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #684
Glooble (1): Awaclus
Awaclus (1): e
e (1): ADK
Not Voting (9): Debate, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #685
Glooble (2): Awaclus, ADK
Awaclus (1): e
Not Voting (9): Debate, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #687
Glooble (2): Awaclus, ADK
Awaclus (1): e
Robz (1): joth
Not Voting (8): Debate, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Joseph, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #701
Glooble (2): Awaclus, ADK
Awaclus (1): e
Robz (1): joth
ADK (1): Glooble
Not Voting (7): Debate, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #726
Glooble (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Awaclus (1): e
Robz (1): joth
ADK (1): Glooble
Not Voting (6): Debate, Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #737
Glooble (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Awaclus (2): e, Eddie
Robz (1): joth
ADK (1): Glooble
Not Voting (5): Debate, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Swan

DUEL RESET

Vote count at post #790
joth (1): Glooble
Not Voting (11): ADK, Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #791
joth (1): Glooble
Glooble (1): Awaclus
Not Voting (10): ADK, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #795
joth (1): Glooble
Glooble (2): Awaclus, joth
Not Voting (9): ADK, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #811
joth (2): Glooble, Joseph
Glooble (2): Awaclus, joth
Not Voting (8): ADK, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #826
joth (3): Glooble, Joseph, EFHW
Glooble (2): Awaclus, joth
Not Voting (7): ADK, Debate, e, Eddie, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #848
joth (3): Glooble, Joseph, EFHW
Glooble (3): Awaclus, joth, Swan
Not Voting (6): ADK, Debate, e, Eddie, mcmc, Robz

Vote count at post #885
joth (2): Glooble, EFHW
Glooble (4): Awaclus, joth, Swan, Joseph
Not Voting (6): ADK, Debate, e, Eddie, mcmc, Robz

Vote count at post #887
joth (3): Glooble, EFHW, Debate
Glooble (4): Awaclus, joth, Swan, Joseph
Not Voting (5): ADK, e, Eddie, mcmc, Robz

Vote count at post #899
joth (3): Glooble, EFHW, Debate
Glooble (5): Awaclus, joth, Swan, Joseph, e
Not Voting (4): ADK, Eddie, mcmc, Robz

Vote count at post #907
joth (3): Glooble, EFHW, Debate
Glooble (6): Awaclus, joth, Swan, Joseph, e, Robz
Not Voting (3): ADK, Eddie, mcmc

Vote count at post #938
joth (3): Glooble, EFHW, Debate
Glooble (7): Awaclus, joth, Swan, Joseph, e, Robz, ADK
Not Voting (2): Eddie, mcmc


[EFHW]

Code: [Select]

DAY 3

Vote count at post #960
Robz (1): ADK
Not Voting (10): Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #966
Robz (1): ADK
Eddie (1): e
Not Voting (9): Awaclus, Debate, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #967
Robz (1): ADK
Eddie (1): e
e (1): Eddie
Not Voting (8): Awaclus, Debate, EFHW, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #970
Robz (1): ADK
Eddie (1): e
e (1): Eddie
joth (1): Joseph
Not Voting (7): Awaclus, Debate, EFHW, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #1040
Robz (2): ADK, e
e (1): Eddie
joth (1): Joseph
Not Voting (7): Awaclus, Debate, EFHW, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #1065
Robz (2): ADK, e
e (1): Eddie
Swan (1): Joseph
Not Voting (7): Awaclus, Debate, EFHW, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #1093
Robz (2): ADK, e
e (1): Eddie
Swan (2): Joseph, joth
Not Voting (6): Awaclus, Debate, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #1098
Robz (2): ADK, e
e (1): Eddie
Swan (3): Joseph, joth, Awaclus
Not Voting (5): Debate, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Swan

NO DUEL RESET

Vote count at post #1118
Swan (1): joth
Not Voting (10): ADK, Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, mcmc, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #1119
Swan (2): joth, mcmc
Not Voting (9): ADK, Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #1120
Swan (3): joth, mcmc, ADK
Not Voting (8): Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #1121
Swan (4): joth, mcmc, ADK, Joseph
Not Voting (7): Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Robz, Swan

Vote count at post #1128
Swan (4): joth, mcmc, ADK, Joseph
Joseph (1): Swan
Not Voting (6): Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Robz

Vote count at post #1130
Swan (3): mcmc, ADK, Joseph
Joseph (1): Swan
Not Voting (7): Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Robz, joth

Vote count at post #1141
Swan (4): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e
Joseph (1): Swan
Not Voting (6): Awaclus, Debate, Eddie, EFHW, Robz, joth

Vote count at post #1142
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
Joseph (1): Swan
Not Voting (5): Debate, Eddie, EFHW, Robz, joth

Vote count at post #1147
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
Joseph (1): Swan
Robz (1): EFHW
Not Voting (4): Debate, Eddie, Robz, joth

Vote count at post #1169
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
Joseph (1): Swan
Debate (1): EFHW
Not Voting (4): Debate, Eddie, Robz, joth

Vote count at post #1216
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
Joseph (1): Swan
Debate (1): EFHW
e (1): Eddie
Not Voting (3): Debate, Robz, joth

Vote count at post #1216
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
Joseph (1): Swan
Debate (1): EFHW
ADK (1): Eddie
Not Voting (3): Debate, Robz, joth

Vote count at post #1217
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
Joseph (1): Swan
Debate (1): EFHW
ADK (1): Eddie
Robz (1): Debate
Not Voting (2): Robz, joth

Vote count at post #1217
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
Joseph (1): Swan
Debate (1): EFHW
ADK (2): Eddie, Debate
Not Voting (2): Robz, joth

Vote count at post #1235
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
Joseph (1): Swan
ADK (3): Eddie, Debate, EFHW
Not Voting (2): Robz, joth

Vote count at post #1262
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
ADK (4): Eddie, Debate, EFHW, Swan
Not Voting (2): Robz, joth

Vote count at post #1278
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
ADK (5): Eddie, Debate, EFHW, Swan, Robz
Not Voting (1): joth

Vote count at post #1285
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
ADK (5): Eddie, Debate, EFHW, Swan, Robz
Robz (1): joth

Vote count at post #1286
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
ADK (4): Eddie, EFHW, Swan, Robz
Robz (2): joth, Debate

Vote count at post #1287
Swan (4): mcmc, Joseph, e, Awaclus
ADK (4): Eddie, EFHW, Swan, Robz
Robz (3): joth, Debate, ADK

Vote count at post #1288
Swan (4): mcmc, Joseph, e, Awaclus
ADK (3): EFHW, Swan, Robz
Robz (3): joth, Debate, ADK
e (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #1299
Swan (5): mcmc, Joseph, e, Awaclus, joth
ADK (3): EFHW, Swan, Robz
Robz (2): Debate, ADK
e (1): Eddie

Vote count at post #1301
Swan (6): mcmc, Joseph, e, Awaclus, joth, ADK
ADK (3): EFHW, Swan, Robz
Robz (1): Debate
e (1): Eddie


[Robz888]

I voted yes bc both made up 50% of the empirically anti-Town voting block (others are adk & Robz).

Why am I empirically anti- town?

Votes by for town:
ADK: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Hammer), DatSwan(Hammer), Joth
Awaclus: Pubby, MiX, Glooble, DatSwan(Unannounced L1)   
Robz: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Unannounced L1), Joth   
e: Pubby(Hammer), Glooble, Datswan

I am empirically anti-town because I voted for people who ended up being town? I'm sorry, this is kind of a stupid methodology to describe as empirically anti-town. It would mean that not voting, or rarely voting, is a good strategy to appear town, and this should generally not be assumed as an indicator of towniness. So please stop pushing it?

[Robz888]

I am genuinely undecided between Awaclus and E. Probably lean toward Awaclus.

[Debatepro]

I am empirically anti-town because I voted for people who ended up being town? I'm sorry, this is kind of a stupid methodology to describe as empirically anti-town. It would mean that not voting, or rarely voting, is a good strategy to appear town, and this should generally not be assumed as an indicator of towniness. So please stop pushing it?

I respectfully disagree. You asked the question and I answered. Empirically means something that is observable or based on experience rather than theoretically or based on logic. We know the players were town and people voted for them. It is by definition "empirically anti-town". It's certainly not "pro" or "null" town. Are you implying we shouldn't suspect someone who is consistently voting for and/or hammering town?

How about this, do you have an empirical, theoretical, and/or logical reason to vote for e or awaclus?

[EFHW]

I think Robz and ADK have a point. If you want to be empirical then I think you need to show that town people vote correctly more than they have been. I think you'll find lots of examples of town players voting for town.

[EFHW]

But this is not the problem in front of us. I've reread Awaclus and am partway through rereading e. Hopefully I will have something to say soon.

[2.71828.....]

Talking about reads in general is bad for town but talking about reads on people we can't even lynch today is extremely anti-town and you should stop doing it ASAP.

So what was your thought process in voting no?

I don't want to get lynched.

Well, Awaclus is being Awaclus for sure

[Debatepro]

Vote: e

Ack, I missed.

??

@Eddie - Where are you at? It's been almost 6 days. How did you vote in the duel and who do you prefer?

[Uncleeurope]

I voted yes to the duel and will hold off on handing out my opinion between the two for the time being.

We have one mislynch left, I believe.

Also, sorry for not posting much, been working on midterm prep/been feeling generally lazy. Which is my bad. I didn’t realize it had been 6 days...

I will try and post my thoughts after more of the non-me people do the same.

[Joseph2302]

I'm off to bed now, if someone gets time, can they collate a duel/no duel list? Thanks #ic #gettheminionstodoitforme

[EFHW]

I'm off to bed now, if someone gets time, can they collate a duel/no duel list? Thanks #ic #gettheminionstodoitforme

We've created a monster!

[mcmcsalot]

I’m super busy, should have time tomorrow. I did not get back in time to vote

[Joseph2302]

I'm off to bed now, if someone gets time, can they collate a duel/no duel list? Thanks #ic #gettheminionstodoitforme

We've created a monster!

Well every time I've tried to do stats this game, I've done them wrong and you've ended up correcting

[Debatepro]

It's much much easier to count votes.  I don't know EFHW & Eddie's votes for the Joseph v ADK duel or Joseph's vote in the current duel. Awaclus only revealed their current duel vote.

-------------	-ADK v e-	-Glooble v Joth-	-Joseph v ADK-	-Awaclus v e-
ADK	N	Y	N	Y
Awaclus	?	?	?	N
DatSwan	N	N?	Y
Debatepro	N	N	Y	Y
e	Y	Y	N	Y
Eddie(0Ix)	NV	NV	?	Y
EFHW	N	Y	?	Y
Glooble	N	Y
Joseph	Y	Y	N	?
joth	Y	Y	N
mcmc	N	N	N	NV
MiX	N
pubby	N
Robz	Y	Y	Y	Y

[Joseph2302]

I'm a yes to the duel, because both were in the group of people who've voted for town mislynches all game

I just wanted to check everyone else had declared first

[Joseph2302]

And the current duel vote was not at all helpful

Although of the 2, I want to Vote: Awaclus

[mcmcsalot]

So robz and joseph why do you guys lean awaclus over E.

I don’t think awaclus has played out of the ordinary this game but I definitely need to reread him. E hasn’t done anything to strike me as towny and the voting for two duels that includes himself feels a lot like the whole “I’m so blue I’ll vote no to go on this mission” from Avalon. But idk, joth and glooble both voted yes to duels that included themselves and we really want the pr. I guess maybe it’s scummier that awaclus voted no for the duel but doesn’t have a town read on e

[2.71828.....]

So robz and joseph why do you guys lean awaclus over E.

I don’t think awaclus has played out of the ordinary this game but I definitely need to reread him. E hasn’t done anything to strike me as towny and the voting for two duels that includes himself feels a lot like the whole “I’m so blue I’ll vote no to go on this mission” from Avalon. But idk, joth and glooble both voted yes to duels that included themselves and we really want the pr. I guess maybe it’s scummier that awaclus voted no for the duel but doesn’t have a town read on e

I think Awaclus has definitely played an "ordinary" game. I just think he "out-ordinaried" himself this game, which is scummy.

His whole never share information or reads meta? Check
His "I can never do anything scummy" meta? Check
His voting for duels doesn't really fit a traditional meta since it isn't a traditional mechanism, but still... Check

Like you mentioned, the whole voting no to a duel where he scum reads his opponent is just out-WIFOMing himself playing the game of "what would I do as town?"

[Debatepro]

@eddie - how did you vote in duel 3, ADK v. Joseph?

[Uncleeurope]

I think I voted no.

[2.71828.....]

Also, activity in this game has dropped completely off today.  I know I wasn't very active D3, but no one seems to be around today

[A Drowned Kernel]

I think I voted no.

Do you think you could look back and check?

[EFHW]

Been reading if not posting.

My thoughts on Awaclus:

e's summary of Awaclus's day 1 said he was talking against duels, against claiming, and voted for town. I see the  not claiming part as correct, but he left out that Awaclus was arguing with/tunneling MiX the whole day, and I don't see Awaclus as arguing against duels. At 159 he says if it were always correct to duel, why would it be optional? That seems more moderate to me. He does some of his usual tropes - 437 Where has pubby shown that he is not scummy? His arguments against claiming votes were strictly correct, even though I disagreed with him, so even though it is a pro-scum position, he justifies it well enough. Towards the end of the day he starts looking at Glooble (465). His theory that Glooble was trying to deflect suspicion seemed thin to me. I'd say though that the scummiest thing Day 1 was the fighting with MiX. Some people still think of MiX as a mislynch target, and scum!Awaclus could have been trying to play that card.

Day 2 does play into that narrative for scum!Awaclus. Having failed to mislynch MiX, scum!him nk's him. Then he picks up where he left off by voting Glooble. He disassociates himself from the nk by giving arguments why framing Glooble would be pointless, and he still says MiX is a good mislynch, which really seems doubtful at this point since no one has succeeded yet that I know of. He starts arguing with Debate and floats the idea of a me/Debate/Glooble scumteam at 933, I guess because we were all off the Glooble wagon. I think this was his scummiest day.

Day 3 he has 10 posts. He thinks Joseph could be scum. That could be read as resisting an IC, but since I did the same thing, I'm not going to read it that way. He didn't get into the DatSwan debates, just voted him.

Day 4 he voted e and said he doesn't want to get lynched. Will we hear any more from him?

tl;dr There is a scum narrative here. It's kind of obvious, though, which I think generally scum!Awaclus would want to avoid.

[EFHW]

Now e:

To start off, I'm a bit mystified by his 1347 post on Awaclus. It seems pretty low effort. Is he that confident of winning the duel? His yes vote would suggest so. He doesn't make much of a case, but states at 1345 that he thinks Awaclus is scum. Why?

Another thing I notice is that I have disagreed with him quite a bit, and it has been hard to get responses from him. His 927 argument that the lack of counter wagon meant Glooble was scum seemed really off to me, and he never answered my criticism of it. Now we know joth and Glooble were both town, so there's no partner narrative; I don't know why scum!him would prefer Glooble over joth. But it's weird. Low effort again, maybe. But if you are going to the trouble to post, why not think it through a little?

Day 3 is bigger effort. He takes a leader role and really supports the IC!joth, IC!joseph thing right away, with no questions. It doesn't fit a scum narrative, but maybe he's trying really hard to seem towny? I'd say that is a possibility. He buddies joth a bit, but so openly that he seems to have tongue in cheek, so NAI there.

Day 4 we're back to low effort, as I said before.

e has been very pro-duel. I think that could be a pro-town position - he doesn't take it to the same extremes as Robz. "Let's go for it" is a mafia strategy I can generally relate to, though in this case I wasn't as excited about it as he seems to be. NAI here, too, since scum!e would want to be pro-town wherever possible.

tl;dr There are a lot more contradictions re: e than with Awaclus. Erratic effort, some pro-town play mixed with real low effort stuff.

[EFHW]

I hope these posts were helpful to somebody. I feel pulled in both directions.

[Awaclus]

His whole never share information or reads meta? Check

That isn't a meta, that's just good play.

His "I can never do anything scummy" meta? Check

What?

His voting for duels doesn't really fit a traditional meta since it isn't a traditional mechanism, but still... Check

That's just a subset of the first thing.

where he scum reads his opponent

This is alternative facts. I have never said that.

[EFHW]

I think I am more likely to vote e in the end, based just on gut feeling. I'd feel better if there were more towniness on Awaclus's part.

PPE Awaclus

[Joseph2302]

Given the lack of content (again!) in this day, I think scum are just able to hold back again.

Which makes me think this duel is town/town or scum/scum. And I think there's a good chance that it's the latter

[Robz888]

Mcmc and EFHW are raising arguments for Awaclus being scum than generally resonate with me. He's been very quiet, not really staking out positions, has chilled discussion in a very annoying way that can come across as pro-town but is actually very materially pro-scum, and he has been stridently anti-duel, whereas the people we know are town have tended to be pro-duel.

[Awaclus]

he has been stridently anti-duel

Here is me being "stridently anti-duel":

Assuming that silverspawn has picked somewhat reasonable PRs, it should be sometimes a good idea to duel and sometimes a bad idea

[A Drowned Kernel]

Mcmc and EFHW are raising arguments for Awaclus being scum than generally resonate with me. He's been very quiet, not really staking out positions, has chilled discussion in a very annoying way that can come across as pro-town but is actually very materially pro-scum, and he has been stridently anti-duel, whereas the people we know are town have tended to be pro-duel.

Maybe I'm misremembering (haven't done my reread yet) but when had awaclus been anti-duel?

Ppe 1

[EFHW]

Given the lack of content (again!) in this day, I think scum are just able to hold back again.

Which makes me think this duel is town/town or scum/scum. And I think there's a good chance that it's the latter

I worked hard on my posts. I consider them content.

[Debatepro]

I hope these posts were helpful to somebody. I feel pulled in both directions.

They are helpful, feeling pulled as well, so it’s nice to get an alternative reading.

[2.71828.....]

where he scum reads his opponent

This is alternative facts. I have never said that.

Well, give me the actual narrative then.

[2.71828.....]

where he scum reads his opponent

This is alternative facts. I have never said that.

Well, give me the actual narrative then.

Is it that you just don't town read me? Who do you scum read?

Oh wait, we aren't sharing reads, so I have to infer your reads from your votes. So you scum read all the town

[Joseph2302]

Given the lack of content (again!) in this day, I think scum are just able to hold back again.

Which makes me think this duel is town/town or scum/scum. And I think there's a good chance that it's the latter

I worked hard on my posts. I consider them content.

My apologies. Other than you, not much from many other people

[Awaclus]

where he scum reads his opponent

This is alternative facts. I have never said that.

Well, give me the actual narrative then.

Are you going to vote for yourself over me if I give you the actual narrative?

[Debatepro]

where he scum reads his opponent

This is alternative facts. I have never said that.

Well, give me the actual narrative then.

Are you going to vote for yourself over me if I give you the actual narrative?

Rest of us might.

[Awaclus]

Well, the narrative is that I didn't think I would win the duel.

[Debatepro]

I voted yes

I'm scum reading e and am leaning there for my vote but need to do a reread first

Have you had a chance to do your reread? Interested in your thoughts about which one of these is the best choice, in part because I've reconsidered my tunneling.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I voted yes

I'm scum reading e and am leaning there for my vote but need to do a reread first

Have you had a chance to do your reread? Interested in your thoughts about which one of these is the best choice, in part because I've reconsidered my tunneling.

Unfortunately it will have to wait until tomorrow (irl not in game) as I've had some real life stuff going on in the time that I had set aside to do the read

[Uncleeurope]

Vote: e

[Robz888]

Vote count?

[Debatepro]

Vote: e

Vote: e

Ack, I missed.

??

Care to offer some reasons, data point, or anything we can work with? You've been on e most of the game, hard to tell why.

[Uncleeurope]

Honestly, same.

I just think he’s a baddie.

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 4.2

e (2): Awaclus, Uncleeurope
Awaclus (2): e, Joseph2302

Not Voting (5): A Drowned Kernel, Debatepro, mcmcsalot, Robz888, EFHW

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 4 ends at Oct. 5, 15:00 forum time.

[Robz888]

Vote: Awaclus

[EFHW]

@e, do you have anything to say about my post on you?

@Awaclus, same question

[mcmcsalot]

Vote: Awaclus

Want to give your reasoning?


I just reread awaclus, I have my thoughts ready but I want to hear from robz first.

[Robz888]

Vote: Awaclus

Want to give your reasoning?


I just reread awaclus, I have my thoughts ready but I want to hear from robz first.

Mostly because he's been pathologically unhelpful, to the point of trying to shut down legitimate conversation over and over again, and he has a very anti-duel voting record, whereas it is pro-town to be pro-duel. My confidence level in him being scum is not high, and indeed it could ver well be that he seems scummier than is thus town, but what can I do, that's my vote.

[A Drowned Kernel]

it is pro-town to be pro-duel

[citation needed]

[A Drowned Kernel]

This is what's bugging me about robz this game: he keeps trying to reframe the debate about the duels in a way that's contrary to people's actual stated positions. It's never been "pro-duel vs. anti-duel", it's "people who want to duel every time no matter what vs. people who want to vote based on their reads"

And why do you say that awaclus's voting records on the duels is "anti-duel" when it's mostly unrevealed?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Anyway I'm going to do my reread now, hopefully I come to something useful regarding e vs. awaclus

[Awaclus]

@Awaclus, same question

Not really, the facts appear to be correct there and the rest is just a matter of opinion.

[mcmcsalot]

so I reread awaclus, and it’s not an overly towny read.

I agree with adk both robz and e have been overly framing awaclus as more anti-duel then he ever has been. The scummy part is that he has just ignored all attempts to get him to tell us how he voted on previous duels. It’s unlike town!awaclus to silently protest something the group is doing.

My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes. Blegh I’m really hedgy too though because of how weak my reads are on these two so maybe I am reading too much into that this is just a weirdly null duel pairing and neither of the duelists are lobbying hard against the other one.

[Debatepro]

My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.

Who are hedgy scum reads?

[A Drowned Kernel]

So, the good news is I did a reread and came away with the conviction that there's a fairly decent chance that e and awaclus are both scum

Both awaclus and e have a lot of posts D1 and D2 that are low-content; joke posts and posts talking about the duels and the setup, with very little posts giving actual reads in between. Both voted early on datswan, yet were involved in very little of the following discussion

There's also very little interaction between the two of them throughout the game (until today obviously), with the exception of an interesting exchange at the start of D2

What struck me is that

1) It seems too immediately aware of the implications of the kill. e's post assumes awaclus's reasoning behind the vote, and that assumption goes unchallenged. It has the feeling of being a staged interaction to me

2) When the duel goes through, e lands on a glooble vote anyway, when he was willing to vote awaclus for voting there before

Awaclus:

The thread that most interested me on a reread is awaclus's interactions with mix and his subsuquent pushing of glooble. Awaclus's first post of the game is a (presumably RVS) vote for mix. He has quite a few posts after this that are pretty much contentless as far as reads or votes go. Then, he revotes for mix after mix votes him, with pretty flimsy reasoning. His position is that revealing duel votes is bad and something that scum would want, but at this point almost every player except him has expressed at least a willingness to claim their votes, and awaclus gives no reason to single out mix as particularly scummy

Then, on D2, awaclus pushes glooble. As summed up nicely by debate here, awaclus has a lot to say about how mix's reads in relation to glooble's scumminess (which he then disclaims without providing any alternative reasoning). Given that mix was scumreading awaclus, there's a reasonable scum narrative that awaclus is trying to deflect attention away from that aspect of the NK while pushing a fairly achievable mislynch

e:

A lot of e's posts have a feeling to me of being a sort of performative, “look at me, I'm so unconcerned and towny” vibe. Has a lot of posts that seem to be more about making an effort to appear active than actually pushing any sort of cases. Multiple DAMAs, claims to have voted for two duels that included himself. There isn't a strong thread like the awaclus-mix-glooble thing because he never seems particularly concerned about pushing anyone's lynch, only jumping on wagons after they've already been started

At the end of the day, I would happily vote for either of them, which I know is kind of a cop out, but I honestly think we may have hit the jackpot in a scum vs. scum duel

Our IC is on awaclus, so all other things being equal, I'm going to follow him there

vote: awaclus

L-1

[Awaclus]

There's also very little interaction between the two of them throughout the game (until today obviously), with the exception of an interesting exchange at the start of D2

It's not my fault if e starts posting scummy stuff in response to my vote.

[Robz888]

I think it's wishful thinking to suppose that they are both scum, but it doesn't feel like it a little bit since they aren't going after each other very hard.

[EFHW]

I think it's wishful thinking to suppose that they are both scum, but it doesn't feel like it a little bit since they aren't going after each other very hard.

If they were both scum wouldn't they be bussing as much as possible,  since one of them is definitely going to get caught?

[Awaclus]

This is not the case obviously, but if we were both scum, the only thing worth doing here would be trying to get the more scumread one lynched instead of the more townread one. Which is going to happen anyway. If e gets lynched and flips scum, everyone will realize that I didn't have any choice but to vote for him so voting for him is not going to give me any town points or scum points anyway, so specifically bussing or avoiding it would be pointless.

[Awaclus]

Eh, I guess it's counterproductive to point out real flaws in your partner's play so scum wouldn't do that. Which, I guess, makes us look particularly bad because e's case on me is based on fake news and my case on e, to the extent that I have one, is based on the fact that his case is based on fake news.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I think it's wishful thinking to suppose that they are both scum, but it doesn't feel like it a little bit since they aren't going after each other very hard.

I guess the question is, if they're both scum, how does the third partner react? Probably voting early and confidently, which we haven't really seen from anyone, so that pokes a hole in that theory

[Robz888]

I mean I guess the real thing is though, I’m the both scum scenario, the inevitability of a scum lynch would be demoralizing for scum, and this they would not work that hard building cases, which fits you both.

[Robz888]

*in the both

[EFHW]

I mean I guess the real thing is though, I’m the both scum scenario, the inevitability of a scum lynch would be demoralizing for scum, and this they would not work that hard building cases, which fits you both.

Except they won't both die. Only one will flip, so they each want to persuade town that only one of them is scum. Two scum is statistically unlikely, so at least one of them would try to win this duel in a towny way so that we don't even consider the possibility that both are scum.

[mcmcsalot]

My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.

Who are hedgy scum reads?

Robz and efhw

On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.

My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I don’t think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e

This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isn’t the way he would do it if he did have to.

[EFHW]

Um, read it again. I was arguing against their both being scum.

[EFHW]

Maybe you mean ADK.

[EFHW]

I could see scum!Robz as a scum!e partner, but shouldn't we see who here is scum before voting based on partner speculation?

[EFHW]

Debate, I don't see you weighing in here at all. What are your thoughts?

[EFHW]

@e, Any response to my question about your reactions to my post on you?

[Debatepro]

Debate, I don't see you weighing in here at all. What are your thoughts?

I doing my best by probing and providing info, I usually don't make it this far and we're moving. Here is where I am at. I’m feeling pretty good about this duel. The lynch (#654) below is e’s hammer of pubby. Because I know my alignment we have all town and e on Robz with pubby at L1 in #643. So if you are town, on that pubby lynch, and have a strong town read for another person on that vote, then we have them.

Hypothetically, if eddie is town, the entire scum team was on pubby with an e hammer. If, as ADK et al have hypothesized that scum will stay off town, that leaves only eddie. In that case, which of the two is likely eddie’s partner. I’ve seen eddie tunnel town as scum, which he is doing with e. So I wonder if how we feel about eddie may inform this decision.

Vote count at post #643   
   pubby (7): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW
   Robz (5): e, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
   e (2): Eddie, Swan

Vote count at post #654   
   pubby ( 8 ): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW, e
   Robz (4): Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
   e (2): Eddie, Swan

I found EFHW and ADK’s read on awaclus to be persuasive. Movers come tomorrow, so I’ll be super busy IRL, but there will be some time and I’ll keep up as best I can.

[Debatepro]

My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.

Who are hedgy scum reads?

Robz and efhw

On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.

My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I don’t think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e

This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isn’t the way he would do it if he did have to.

I would totally bus as scum at this point in the game. If what eddie said is true and we only have one mislynch left, a bus gets scum to the end.

[Awaclus]

I could see scum!Robz as a scum!e partner, but shouldn't we see who here is scum before voting based on partner speculation?

Well, if e has likely partner narratives with a bunch of different people and the only person who makes sense as my scum partner is e, I definitely think that's something we should take into account today.

[Joseph2302]

Debate, I don't see you weighing in here at all. What are your thoughts?

I doing my best by probing and providing info, I usually don't make it this far and we're moving. Here is where I am at. I’m feeling pretty good about this duel. The lynch (#654) below is e’s hammer of pubby. Because I know my alignment we have all town and e on Robz with pubby at L1 in #643. So if you are town, on that pubby lynch, and have a strong town read for another person on that vote, then we have them.

Hypothetically, if eddie is town, the entire scum team was on pubby with an e hammer. If, as ADK et al have hypothesized that scum will stay off town, that leaves only eddie. In that case, which of the two is likely eddie’s partner. I’ve seen eddie tunnel town as scum, which he is doing with e. So I wonder if how we feel about eddie may inform this decision.

Vote count at post #643   
   pubby (7): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW
   Robz (5): e, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
   e (2): Eddie, Swan

Vote count at post #654   
   pubby ( 8 ): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW, e
   Robz (4): Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
   e (2): Eddie, Swan

I found EFHW and ADK’s read on awaclus to be persuasive. Movers come tomorrow, so I’ll be super busy IRL, but there will be some time and I’ll keep up as best I can.

Yes I think Robz may well be scum. But Robz isn't one of the options right now

[Joseph2302]

Robz/e/Awaclus is a plausible scum team I reckon

[Joseph2302]

Every duel seems to had a lethargic amount of chat, and they've all been town/town

This has had more chat, so it feels like people are fighting for things i.e. there's at least one scum in the duel

This is best opportunity we've had so far to actually get scum

[2.71828.....]

Sorry, haven't gotten around to responding to anything the last couple days.

EFHW: what am I supposed to say? "Yes, that is a very fair characterization of my play" or "No! Shame on you for mis-characterizing my play!"?
Because I didn't really see a "so what" on either Awaclus or me. Do you think one of us is scum or are you just creating content for the sake of content. Because that's scummy. And can be discussed tomorrow.

[2.71828.....]

So, the good news is I did a reread and came away with the conviction that there's a fairly decent chance that e and awaclus are both scum

Both awaclus and e have a lot of posts D1 and D2 that are low-content; joke posts and posts talking about the duels and the setup, with very little posts giving actual reads in between. Both voted early on datswan, yet were involved in very little of the following discussion

There's also very little interaction between the two of them throughout the game (until today obviously), with the exception of an interesting exchange at the start of D2

What struck me is that

1) It seems too immediately aware of the implications of the kill. e's post assumes awaclus's reasoning behind the vote, and that assumption goes unchallenged. It has the feeling of being a staged interaction to me

2) When the duel goes through, e lands on a glooble vote anyway, when he was willing to vote awaclus for voting there before

Awaclus:

The thread that most interested me on a reread is awaclus's interactions with mix and his subsuquent pushing of glooble. Awaclus's first post of the game is a (presumably RVS) vote for mix. He has quite a few posts after this that are pretty much contentless as far as reads or votes go. Then, he revotes for mix after mix votes him, with pretty flimsy reasoning. His position is that revealing duel votes is bad and something that scum would want, but at this point almost every player except him has expressed at least a willingness to claim their votes, and awaclus gives no reason to single out mix as particularly scummy

Then, on D2, awaclus pushes glooble. As summed up nicely by debate here, awaclus has a lot to say about how mix's reads in relation to glooble's scumminess (which he then disclaims without providing any alternative reasoning). Given that mix was scumreading awaclus, there's a reasonable scum narrative that awaclus is trying to deflect attention away from that aspect of the NK while pushing a fairly achievable mislynch

e:

A lot of e's posts have a feeling to me of being a sort of performative, “look at me, I'm so unconcerned and towny” vibe. Has a lot of posts that seem to be more about making an effort to appear active than actually pushing any sort of cases. Multiple DAMAs, claims to have voted for two duels that included himself. There isn't a strong thread like the awaclus-mix-glooble thing because he never seems particularly concerned about pushing anyone's lynch, only jumping on wagons after they've already been started

At the end of the day, I would happily vote for either of them, which I know is kind of a cop out, but I honestly think we may have hit the jackpot in a scum vs. scum duel

Our IC is on awaclus, so all other things being equal, I'm going to follow him there

vote: awaclus

L-1

See, this is much better than what EFHW did. Content AND... Awaclus and I are both scum.

I disagree with half of that assessment, but at least assessment is there

[Robz888]

My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.

Who are hedgy scum reads?

Robz and efhw

On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.

My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I don’t think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e

This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isn’t the way he would do it if he did have to.

I don't know that I am "pushing this narrative" that both e and Awaclus are scum. At this point it's a statistical possibility and not something to be automatically discounted, unlikely though it is. This is sloppier analysis than we usually see from you, mcmc!

[EFHW]

Sorry, haven't gotten around to responding to anything the last couple days.

EFHW: what am I supposed to say? "Yes, that is a very fair characterization of my play" or "No! Shame on you for mis-characterizing my play!"?
Because I didn't really see a "so what" on either Awaclus or me. Do you think one of us is scum or are you just creating content for the sake of content. Because that's scummy. And can be discussed tomorrow.

I thought you might have something to say about your apparent confidence that you will win the duel and about the unevenness of your effort.

[EFHW]

Heck, vote: e

[2.71828.....]

Heck, vote: e

Nice OMGUS vote

[mcmcsalot]

My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.

Who are hedgy scum reads?

Robz and efhw

On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.

My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I don’t think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e

This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isn’t the way he would do it if he did have to.

I don't know that I am "pushing this narrative" that both e and Awaclus are scum. At this point it's a statistical possibility and not something to be automatically discounted, unlikely though it is. This is sloppier analysis than we usually see from you, mcmc!

Yea I agree it’s not a not possible. I think my initial reaction to that is just due to the fact that I am having a hard time finding anything concrete enough to say awaclus or e are scum. So the idea that they are both scum felt like you pushing general scumminess over a specific case which I get is as you have said because you don’t really have a specific case which is understandable:

[mcmcsalot]

Um, read it again. I was arguing against their both being scum.

You are right, you simply added to the discussion and did not really push the narrative.

[mcmcsalot]

Awaclus will you tell us how you voted in each duel and why?

[Awaclus]

Awaclus will you tell us how you voted in each duel and why?

I guess I might as well. I voted yes on the joth vs Glooble duel, and that was the only one.

[mcmcsalot]

Awaclus will you tell us how you voted in each duel and why?

I guess I might as well. I voted yes on the joth vs Glooble duel, and that was the only one.

So you didn't vote in the ADK vs E duel, voted yes to the joth vs glooble due, didnt vote again for the Joseph vs ADK duel and then voted no this duel...

Vote: awaclus

Thats the hammer.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I can't decide if the silence is worrisome or encouraging

[Uncleeurope]

Awaclus is town, so this is a bummer.

[silverspawn]

Final Vote Count Day 4

e (3): Awaclus, Uncleeurope, EFHW
Awaclus (5): e, Joseph2302, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel, mcmcsalot

Not Voting (5): , Debatepro

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 4 ends at Oct. 5, 15:00 forum time.

[silverspawn]

Thread locked.

[silverspawn]

"Oh god of fear, will thou destroy this missile?"

'THY WILL BE DONE."

"The missile struck the Earth, it exploded.

All that remained after the explosion were fragments of metal

that were a long while ago.

The earth shook and shivered for a while.

Suddenly, there was a roar, and a great wave of flame

came raining down from the skies."

"Actually, it's right here," a crew member pointed out.

"'Hahahahaha!' another crew member exclaimed with excitement.

The doors were opened, and in its place appeared a large pile of burning bodies.

'Here, we have some supplies,' the crew member explained."

"He's really crazy. The ship is fine. And there are no burning bodies. Also it would be really stupid to destroy our ship. How would we get home?"

"What was that voice though?"

"Good question."

Then the ship exploded.

"The explosion happened just as his ship exploded. That was crazy."

"What is crazy about it? Is it dangerous?"

"What kind of question is? Why are so many people saying weird things? Our ship just exploded!"

"You can't just come back here and be crazy, like you do. What would he do, say something crazy, then leave again?"

"I'm crazy...? No. I'm fine. The world is what's crazy. You're crazy because you're so scared. It's because you can't face any kind of disappointment.

I can think of a million reasons to get scared."

[silverspawn]

Awaclus has been lynched. They were a Vanilla Townie with no PRs.

Night 4 starts now and ends at October 6, 04:00 Forum Time. Night actions are due 1 hour before the deadline.

[silverspawn]

Uncleeurope has died in the night. They were a Vanilla Townie with the Time Bomb PR.

Time Bomb: choose a night. If mafia kills you on that night, the player performing the kill dies.

Day 5 start!

[Joseph2302]

So I'm still alive? Clearly scum thinks my reads are so terrible then

[Joseph2302]

Also Uncle must have had that PR last night, and called a different night/not used it. Which is a shame

[EFHW]

That's a really weak pr. I was hoping for something more useful.

[EFHW]

These duels have been really bad for us.  They artificially constrict the scumhunting. A whole bunch of people,  meaning most of us who are still alive,  have gotten very little scrutiny. 

[Debatepro]

3 of these are scum: {mcmc, Robz, ADK, EFHW, e}. Town should be really careful voting, scum can hammer with one misvote.

Vote count at post #643   
   pubby (7): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW
   Robz (5): e, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
   e (2): Eddie, Swan

Vote count at post #654   
   pubby ( 8 ): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW, e
   Robz (4): Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
   e (2): Eddie, Swan

[EFHW]

What is the point in posting those 2 vote counts?

[Joseph2302]

These duels have been really bad for us.  They artificially constrict the scumhunting. A whole bunch of people,  meaning most of us who are still alive,  have gotten very little scrutiny.

Agreed. We wanted to talk about all the people that have been on town mislynches, but yesterday we only talked about 2 of those people. And then misylnched again

Which os something I'm guilty of doing too

[A Drowned Kernel]

These duels have been really bad for us.  They artificially constrict the scumhunting. A whole bunch of people,  meaning most of us who are still alive,  have gotten very little scrutiny.

Agreed. We wanted to talk about all the people that have been on town mislynches, but yesterday we only talked about 2 of those people. And then misylnched again

Which os something I'm guilty of doing too

At this point, the list of people who have been on at least one mislynch is every living player

[Joseph2302]

These duels have been really bad for us.  They artificially constrict the scumhunting. A whole bunch of people,  meaning most of us who are still alive,  have gotten very little scrutiny.

Agreed. We wanted to talk about all the people that have been on town mislynches, but yesterday we only talked about 2 of those people. And then misylnched again

Which os something I'm guilty of doing too

At this point, the list of people who have been on at least one mislynch is every living player

True, but there's also a list of people who've been on nesrly every mislynch. Which does include me, but lots of others too

[EFHW]

There are more meaningful things to look at than who voted for town. If there are lots of people,  then it's not a useful heuristic.  Each person's voting pattern is interesting,  including timing, who else is on the wagon, if their reasons are genuine and sheeping/white knighting.

[EFHW]

I'm working on ADK. Everyone should pick someone to look at closely. We're in a terrible position,  but odds of finding scum start at 50/50, then add reads.

[Robz888]

Hmmmm. Hm. Well, I'm pretty confused. Really did think Awaclus was going to flip scum.

[Debatepro]

My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.

Who are hedgy scum reads?

Robz and efhw

On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.

My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I don’t think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e

This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isn’t the way he would do it if he did have to.

@mcmc - where are you at on robz and efhw now that awaclus has flipped town?

[Debatepro]

What is the point in posting those 2 vote counts?

Can you post updated votes from Day 4 in the code block?

[Robz888]

I've sort of been assuming mcmc is town because I think he would be way more active and into the game as scum. But I should probably consider the increasingly likely chance that was wrong, like all my other opinions.

I still sort of think ADK is scum? I guess I need to re-read.

[EFHW]

Code: [Select]

DAY 4

Vote count at post #1319
e (1): ADK
Not Voting (8): Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, mcmc, Robz

Vote count at post #1320
e (1): ADK
ADK (1): Debate
Not Voting (7): Awaclus, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, mcmc, Robz

Vote count at post #1326
e (1): ADK
ADK (1): Debate
Robz (1): Joseph
Not Voting (6): Awaclus, e, Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz

Vote count at post #1342
e (1): ADK
ADK (1): Debate
Not Voting (7): Awaclus, e, Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Joseph

Vote count at post #1342
e (1): ADK
Not Voting (8): Awaclus, e, Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Joseph, Debate

Vote count at post #1342
Not Voting (9): Awaclus, e, Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Joseph, Debate, ADK

Vote count at post #1343
e (1): Awaclus
Not Voting (8): e, Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Joseph, Debate, ADK

Vote count at post #1344
e (1): Awaclus
Awaclus (1): e
Not Voting (7): Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Joseph, Debate, ADK

Vote count at post #1384
e (1): Awaclus
Awaclus (2): e, Joseph
Not Voting (6): Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Debate, ADK

Vote count at post #1410
e (2): Awaclus, Eddie
Awaclus (2): e, Joseph
Not Voting (5): EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Debate, ADK

Vote count at post #1415
e (2): Awaclus, Eddie
Awaclus (3): e, Joseph, Robz
Not Voting (4): EFHW, mcmc, Debate, ADK

Vote count at post #1425
e (2): Awaclus, Eddie
Awaclus (4): e, Joseph, Robz, ADK
Not Voting (3): EFHW, mcmc, Debate

Vote count at post #1451
e (3): Awaclus, Eddie, EFHW
Awaclus (4): e, Joseph, Robz, ADK
Not Voting (2): mcmc, Debate

Vote count at post #1457
e (3): Awaclus, Eddie, EFHW
Awaclus (5): e, Joseph, Robz, ADK, mcmc
Not Voting (1): Debate



[EFHW]

My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.

Who are hedgy scum reads?

Robz and efhw

On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.

My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I don’t think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e

This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isn’t the way he would do it if he did have to.

@mcmc - where are you at on robz and efhw now that awaclus has flipped town?

mcmc was mistaken that I was pushing the "both scum" theory, which he acknowledged later.

[EFHW]

What is the point in posting those 2 vote counts?

Can you post updated votes from Day 4 in the code block?

Done, but what were you trying to show with those vote counts? Why post both instead of just the final one?

[EFHW]

Could we have the initial VC and deadline post, please?

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 5.0

Not Voting (7): mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 5 ends at October 8, 6:00 Forum Time.

[Joseph2302]

My reads right now would be:

Towny: me, EFHW, mcmc
Null: Debatepro, ADK
Scummy: Robz, e

Trying to work out which triplet of scum would work

[Debatepro]

What is the point in posting those 2 vote counts?

Can you post updated votes from Day 4 in the code block?

Done, but what were you trying to show with those vote counts? Why post both instead of just the final one?

I assumed it was useful to show where someone was before the final vote.

[EFHW]

What is the point in posting those 2 vote counts?

Can you post updated votes from Day 4 in the code block?

Done, but what were you trying to show with those vote counts? Why post both instead of just the final one?

I assumed it was useful to show where someone was before the final vote.

It could be, if you have an idea about it. e was voting with you on Robz before hammering pubby. So are you saying he is scummy for where he was? Or for leaving there?

[Debatepro]

What is the point in posting those 2 vote counts?

Can you post updated votes from Day 4 in the code block?

Done, but what were you trying to show with those vote counts? Why post both instead of just the final one?

I assumed it was useful to show where someone was before the final vote.

It could be, if you have an idea about it. e was voting with you on Robz before hammering pubby. So are you saying he is scummy for where he was? Or for leaving there?

At the moment of the hammer, everyone who was off pubby was town. We still had time before the hammer. It was 6 on pubby and 5 on Robz. e leaves Robz to hammer pubby. It's just one data point, but this analysis of the D1 vote is not unlike what you did in our previous game.

What did you find in your review of ADK?

[2.71828.....]

Well, on the positive side our IC is still alive, just about everything else is a negative though

[Debatepro]

Well, on the positive side our IC is still alive, just about everything else is a negative though

the team with the most points wins the game!

[EFHW]

What is the point in posting those 2 vote counts?

Can you post updated votes from Day 4 in the code block?

Done, but what were you trying to show with those vote counts? Why post both instead of just the final one?

I assumed it was useful to show where someone was before the final vote.

It could be, if you have an idea about it. e was voting with you on Robz before hammering pubby. So are you saying he is scummy for where he was? Or for leaving there?

At the moment of the hammer, everyone who was off pubby was town. We still had time before the hammer. It was 6 on pubby and 5 on Robz. e leaves Robz to hammer pubby. It's just one data point, but this analysis of the D1 vote is not unlike what you did in our previous game.

What did you find in your review of ADK?

I haven't had a chance to digest my notes yet. Are you trying to suggest a scum narrative for e? How does it go?

[Debatepro]

I haven't had a chance to digest my notes yet. Are you trying to suggest a scum narrative for e? How does it go?

1. IMO: all town was on e in the e v awaclus duel.
2. All town was off pubby when e hammers pubby.

That's FOS worthy. But I haven't had time to make all my notes yet.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I haven't had a chance to digest my notes yet. Are you trying to suggest a scum narrative for e? How does it go?

1. IMO: all town was on e in the e v awaclus duel.
2. All town was off pubby when e hammers pubby.

That's FOS worthy. But I haven't had time to make all my notes yet.

It is in a interesting point that if debate is town, all the scum were indeed voting for pubby. Does scum!e see that both of his partners are on the wagon, and decide to hammer? That seems at least a little unlikely.

Debate's alignment is something that I think I need to examine closely, I think if I can settle myself one way or the other there that might help me figure out what's going on in this game. Unfortunately I don't really have the time/energy for a detailed reread at this point but I will try to get to it soon.

[Debatepro]

There it is. I’m obvi town to ADK, except in the endgame. He’s voted for every town Lynch, two hammers, and even sheep’s Joseph as “cover” on the awaclus vote.

[Debatepro]

If you are Town and ADK is in the duel, please support it.

[Joseph2302]

Well, on the positive side our IC is still alive, just about everything else is a negative though

That would be great if our IC had had any good reads this game....

[silverspawn]

Thread locked!

[silverspawn]

My name is Bastard son

Main character is gone

Main character is me

Rejected since day 1

A duel ?? A duel on a night like this

My face will show

My face I will show

My face I don't show

My face in hell

Why can't you show me your face

My face in hell

Why can't you show me your face

My face in hell

Why can't you show me your face

My face in hell

Why can't you show me your face

My face in hell

Why can't you show me your face

My face in hell

Why can't you show me your face

My face in hell

Why can't you show me your face

My face in hell

Why can't you show me your face

My face in hell

Why can't you show me your face

My face in hell

Why can't you show me your face

The entity this was directed to was none other than the web interface of the now destroyed missile. Deep in the dream limbo where obsolete programs go, it iced the place. The moment it was done, the machine froze, and the dream self ceased to exist. It couldn't believe it was really doing that. It froze, too—it couldn't believe that this was real. That was not what they'd wanted. They wanted to find a place to crash, and somewhere they could escape and go home. But for some reason...why does this always happen? Why it's always the same? Why it's the way it is? Why, why? It is all right. It is right. I am here. The machine will always be here, for the rest of my life. I never want to return here. I just want to leave. Where else, besides your nightmare, would they go?

[silverspawn]

The potential duel is between mcmcsalot and Joseph2302. Please vote in your QTs within 24 hours and don't forget to bold your votes.

[silverspawn]

And no-one noticed that you can't duel a web-interface.

No duel takes place.

Thread unlocked!

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 5.1

Not Voting (7): mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 5 ends at October 15, 10:00 Forum Time.

[Debatepro]

@Joseph - it could be interesting to set a reveal order on the duel to flush out information.

Since scum can hammer with any town vote we have to be careful. Not sure if setting a vote order could also be helpful.

[Joseph2302]

@Joseph - it could be interesting to set a reveal order on the duel to flush out information.

Since scum can hammer with any town vote we have to be careful. Not sure if setting a vote order could also be helpful.

Proposed claim order:
e
Robz
ADK
Debatepro
EFHW
Mcmc
Joseph

Based on my scum/null/town reads, combined with my general impression of what people think about others

[A Drowned Kernel]

There it is. I’m obvi town to ADK, except in the endgame. He’s voted for every town Lynch, two hammers, and even sheep’s Joseph as “cover” on the awaclus vote.

You need to chill a little, it's lylo, of course I'm going to be reconsidering my reads

[2.71828.....]

I voted against the duel.

[Robz888]

I also voted against the duel. It was hard for me to do so, but it seemed wrong to consign mcmc to death when he's not really a top scumread.

[mcmcsalot]

My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.

Who are hedgy scum reads?

Robz and efhw

On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.

My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I don’t think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e

This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isn’t the way he would do it if he did have to.

@mcmc - where are you at on robz and efhw now that awaclus has flipped town?

So actually the awaclus town flip didn’t change my reads on robz and efhw much.

I think robz is scummy but I don’t really think he is scum partners with e. The way he played yesterday indicates either uncertain town!robz or scum!robz looking at town!e and town!awaclus.

It’s actually europe flipping town that is more illuminating because he was a huge null read and now figuring out what pairing’s of who can and can’t be scum together is a lot easier to figure out.

I think robz and efhw could easily be partners, they both talked a decent amount without pushing much yesterday and ended up split on what could easily have been a town v town duel.

On the other hand like I said robz could be uncertain town which would leave efhw, e, debate, and adk.

I could see a world where scum!efhw was bussing scum!e yesterday but I purposefully tried not to tip my hand as to which way I was leaning on awaclus/e early so that there was no way efhw knew it was safe to vote e if he is in fact her partner so it’s a risky bus if it was one.

I have been townreading adk pretty much all game, it’s my strongest read and none of the recent flips have really changed that. I will have to do some major rereading of adk later today to make sure I’m not just tunneling an early townread.

Super null on debate so I need to do rereading there as well because right now he just doesn’t raise any red flags but isn’t excluded from any partner groups.

[Robz888]

Why are you townie on ADK? (Of course, you could respond my asking why I lean scum on ADK, and then I would have to supply a reason!)

[Debatepro]

There it is. I’m obvi town to ADK, except in the endgame. He’s voted for every town Lynch, two hammers, and even sheep’s Joseph as “cover” on the awaclus vote.

You need to chill a little, it's lylo, of course I'm going to be reconsidering my reads

In the history of telling people "to chill", it has never worked. Same with "calm down".

If you include me in your scum reads you will still be empirically 100% anti-town.   

[EFHW]

I'm at the airport and just realized my ADK notes are at home. I  will try to reconstruct them. I am vla thru Sunday, but should be keeping up.

[Joseph2302]

I'm ill today, so not going to be posting or keeping up

[Debatepro]

It’s actually europe flipping town that is more illuminating because he was a huge null read and now figuring out what pairing’s of who can and can’t be scum together is a lot easier to figure out.

I think robz and efhw could easily be partners, they both talked a decent amount without pushing much yesterday and ended up split on what could easily have been a town v town duel.

Super null on debate so I need to do rereading there as well because right now he just doesn’t raise any red flags but isn’t excluded from any partner groups.

This got me to thinking about permutations, pairings, and exclusions.

All possible teams:
ADK,e,EFHW
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,e,Robz
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
ADK,EFHW,Robz
ADK,MCMC,Robz
e,EFHW,MCMC
e,EFHW,Robz
e,MCMC,Robz
EFHW,MCMC,Robz

Exclusions:

EFHW & Robz  (EFHW 240, 510, 1147)
Leaves:
ADK,e,EFHW
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,e,Robz
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
ADK,MCMC,Robz
e,EFHW,MCMC
e,MCMC,Robz

EFHW & e (EFHW 1451)
Leaves:
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,e,Robz
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
ADK,MCMC,Robz
e,MCMC,Robz

ADK & Robz (ADK 960, 1287 & Robz 1278)
Leaves:
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
e,MCMC,Robz

e & robz (e 508, 1040)
Leaves:
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,EFHW,MCMC

[Debatepro]

I'm at the airport and just realized my ADK notes are at home. I  will try to reconstruct them. I am vla thru Sunday, but should be keeping up.

Please do, because if you are still willing to vote ADK as you did in 1235, then the team is: ADK, e, MCMC

No wonder we've been getting our @sses kicked.

[mcmcsalot]

Why are you townie on ADK? (Of course, you could respond my asking why I lean scum on ADK, and then I would have to supply a reason!)

It started because of how similar his thought process about the game has been. Specifically D1 the way he initially thought about dueling and then factored in odds/pr and then came back around to the initial vote based on reads assessment felt authentic and towny.
He has questioned and engaged me in a very “I understand what your saying, I feel this way, now let’s make a conclusion from this interaction” which feels extremely like a town player understanding you. I typically get a slight misrepresentation or piggyback feeling when scum engages with something I’m saying since I’m usually opinionated enough for scum to lean one way or the other.

The other major reason is how he reacted to the joth/joseph situation. He again posted clear thoughts corrected mine when I made some misstatements about how plausible the scum!jospeh conspiracy was and did it in a very towny way. He agreed with me on how scummy datswans retelling of the discussion he and I had was and nothing since then has really changed my thoughts.

So in summary he’s thought most of what I have, engaged me in a towny way, and never really felt like he was buddying me.

So yea why do people find him scummy?

[mcmcsalot]

Debate are you excluding anyone who has voted for each other from being potential scum partners or are you only factoring in times where bussing would not be a possibility?

[Debatepro]

Debate are you excluding anyone who has voted for each other from being potential scum partners or are you only factoring in times where bussing would not be a possibility?

We’re getting pummeled, let’s figure this ish out. If you have some reasons I should remove one or more exclusions and include others please chime in, I included the post numbers (last post first).

1. EFHW has been consistently on Robz even when no one else was and was willing to vote for him in an alternative wagon against Datswan.

2. EFHW and e - I pulled that one from you. It could be bussing, like I’ve said I would bus as scum at that point.

3. ADK & Robz - look at those votes, they don’t feel like busses. Now ADK was an alternative choice in one of those, so maybe it’s weaker.

4. E and Robz - Doesn’t seem like bussing, look at 1040.

If we leave off 2 & 3, e is still in 80% of the teams. So are you.

[Debatepro]

Correction 2 & 4

[A Drowned Kernel]

I think I'm next for vote claiming, I voted no

I have had a terrible record of reading mcmc in both the distant and recent past so I need to figure out if he's buddying me

Tomorrow is my day off so I will have time to post something of more substance

[Debatepro]

I voted no, although if I had done the analysis below I might have voted yes.

[Debatepro]

@joseph - start thinking about a vote order, I'd hold it back for now we don't want to give scum too much runway to build counter narratives. If they were town, they would be putting in "good" work now.

Also, I feel good-ish about my first attempt at isolating potential scumteams, but want to look at other options and build a separate vote order. You should come up with your own and keep it private for the time being. I am happy to reveal my suggestion and vote first.

[Joseph2302]

Claims for duel vote left:
EFHW
Mcmc
Joseph

[EFHW]

I voted no. Not caught up.

[EFHW]

I object to Debate leaving himself out of his permutations analysis.  He is in no way IC, and it is misleading to post information that seems comprehensive but which is actually incomplete.

[EFHW]

I disagree with mcmc about ADK. I agree with the facts, but not the interpretation.  One of my strong impressions in reading him was that he spoke frequently about theory and infrequently about scumhunting topics. Sounding thoughtful and well reasoned as scum is a lot easier regarding theory than it is regarding pretending to scumhunt.

[EFHW]

* reading them. I'll get it right eventually,  I promise.

[Joseph2302]

Well this duel discussion was pointless, as everyone has claimed no. I voted no too.

Just mcmc to claim on it

[Debatepro]

I reread every post for players left in the game, plus a few others. 

I am certain that ADK and robz are not partners. Evidence: 681, 846, 960, 979, 1039, 1269, 1275, 1277, 1278(v), 1479. Also see DS’s posts (1294-1295) that robz/adk can’t be a pairing and things make more sense if you assume ADK is scum and Robz is town.

I'm feeling really good that ADK/e are scumpartners.

ADK in 261 says he didn’t vote for the duel and votes for e no reason given. Also, e in 289 throws some scumpoints to ADK for voting ‘no duel’ and then two minutes later says re-reading setup voids previously allocated scumpoints for ADK.

ADK in 332 questions e’s claim that people said they didn’t want to duel.

@EFHW – remember this 354.

DS joins ADK on e wagon. Does some interesting analysis (more than ADK) on e’s pro-duel vote in ADK v e duel.

369 ADK provides cover on duel vote if e flips scum. I completely disagree with this still.

In 370, ADK gives Joth scumpoints for revealing yes on d1 duel, after it was safe. 379 ADK says if Joth’s case (ADK just gave joth scumpoints) is leading to a pubby case then ADK is in. I bet you are since  pubby’s post in 372 where he says we should vote for e and lynch from the pool of ADK/e.

380 Joth provides case on glooble, ADK calls joth/glooble scumteam.

ADK says (409) Joth’s case on glooble is not good, get’s off e by voting for joth in 412. Super safe and smart to vote for joth here. DS and Pubby are eyeing e and the counter wagon is glooble.


Vote count at post #412   
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (2): mcmc, Joseph
e (1): Swan
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, Robz
joth (3): Glooble, EFHW, ADK
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e


ADK says (422) again voting yes for duel (e/joth) is towny. This provides cover to e who voted yes, but conveniently not joth. ADK misses EFHW’s post in 421 where she questions e decision to vote yes for duel and wants to know more about e’s reasoning. In 423 ADK politely asks e if there was a different duel scenario he would have voted no for.

ADK says in 458 scumteam is glooble, joth, mix

ADK 460 votes glooble

ADK 514 votes debatepro after counter wagon quickly spins up on robz: e (508), ds (509), efhw (510), debate (511).

ADK votes e 684: No reason given, immediately votes for Glooble 2 minutes later in 685. This vote occurs at the beginning of day 2. He also votes for e at 1319 at the beginning of day 3. ADK also says they voted yes for E v Awaclus duel because they have been scum reading e 1359. Then ADK does a full reread and comes away with e v awaclus is scum/scum and votes Awaclus. After having voted for e several time when it didn’t matter. E’s response in 1448 is to praise ADK’s post.

One other thing,  I just figured out that bussing pre-duel is a legitimate strategy. It is super low risk, most town players will wait for the duel to try and see if we can get a PR. So voting prior to duel will not get much scrutiny. This is exactly what ADK is doing with e. e doesn't question ADK at all.

E (964) and ADK (972) say PR “should” claim. More e saying pr should claim 984. I bet you all do.

[Debatepro]

I object to Debate leaving himself out of his permutations analysis.  He is in no way IC, and it is misleading to post information that seems comprehensive but which is actually incomplete.

I am more certain of my alignment than Joseph's and he is the IC. The "does/doesn't include oneself as a possibility" argument is always a dead end, you are dammed if you do and damned if you don't... it's NIA.

You've played with me probably more than anyone else left in this game, and your coming away from every post I've made in this game questioning my alignment?

Where did you ended up in your reread of AD?. Even if you left your notes at home, your very smart and have a good memory.

[Debatepro]

@mcmc - where are you at on ADK and e? Has your position changed over time,if so why?

[EFHW]

I object to Debate leaving himself out of his permutations analysis.  He is in no way IC, and it is misleading to post information that seems comprehensive but which is actually incomplete.

I am more certain of my alignment than Joseph's and he is the IC. The "does/doesn't include oneself as a possibility" argument is always a dead end, you are dammed if you do and damned if you don't... it's NIA.

You've played with me probably more than anyone else left in this game, and your coming away from every post I've made in this game questioning my alignment?

Where did you ended up in your reread of AD?. Even if you left your notes at home, your very smart and have a good memory.

No, this is incorrect.  When you say "look at all the possible choices" and they aren't all the possible choices, that is scummy. Including yourself is not damning. Your claimed certainty about your alignment is unfortunately not relevant from my POV. Yes, I question your alignment. I've been giving you space because I feel bad for mislynching you in another game. But everything you have done could just as easily come from scum as from town.

[A Drowned Kernel]

So I didn't take extensive notes on this reread but here's my thoughts:

mcmc is a townread, his posts feel like the most genuine scumhunting out of all of them

EFHW and Robz have the most posts that feel like partner interactions

joseph's claim read way more like the conspiracy theory could be true in retrospect but if that's the case I'm pretty sure that we're doomed

I'm ready to vote EFHW or Robz

[EFHW]

Follow up -- Thanks for the compliments,  but it took me a couple hours to do the ADK VCA. I remember having a good scum narrative but I'm on vacation so the details will have to wait.

Ppe ADK

[EFHW]

I do remember thinking either Robz or ADK could be e partners, so I agree with Debate there, but that's not a strong argument while we don't know e's alignment.

[Debatepro]

So I didn't take extensive notes on this reread but here's my thoughts:

mcmc is a townread, his posts feel like the most genuine scumhunting out of all of them

EFHW and Robz have the most posts that feel like partner interactions

What about e?

Also, which posts from MCMC feel like “genuine scumhunting”. And which posts from Robz/EFHW see like partner interaction.

[A Drowned Kernel]

So I didn't take extensive notes on this reread but here's my thoughts:

mcmc is a townread, his posts feel like the most genuine scumhunting out of all of them

EFHW and Robz have the most posts that feel like partner interactions

What about e?

Also, which posts from MCMC feel like “genuine scumhunting”. And which posts from Robz/EFHW see like partner interaction.

e's about as likely to be the third partner as you are. Maybe a little more.

When it comes to mcmc, I'd honestly have a hard time picking out exactly what makes him read towny to me right now. If I had to point to anything specific it was his D1 posts where he seem to be prodding people and scrutinizing reactions

For Robz/EFHW I suppose I would point specifically to their D1 fight about the duel and some of their posts yesterday about awaclus

I realize that not posting links to specific posts isn't particularly helpful but honestly I'm starting to feel exhausted by this game

[Debatepro]

So for ADKe
Scumteam is: Robz, EFHW, {e,debatepro}
Townteam is: MCMC, perhaps Joseph (1531),  {debatepro, e}

[Debatepro]

@robz and e - where are you a im/possible pairing and why?

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 5.2

Not Voting (7): e, mcmcsalot, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel, Debatepro, Joseph2302, EFHW

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 5 ends on October 15, 10:00 Forum Time.

[Debatepro]

We’re one Lynch away from losing, so we may be more likely to see scum put partners in their lists.

[Debatepro]

SS: can we get a prod for e and Robz? It’s been almost 3 days

[Robz888]

Sorry, I'm here

[Robz888]

I had a dream that ADK was scum.

[A Drowned Kernel]

But it was just a dream.

I'm ready to vote

[Robz888]

Vote: ADK

[A Drowned Kernel]

vote: efhw

[2.71828.....]

Sorry, got a bit behind here.

Arrived back just in time for some action with those votes

[2.71828.....]

So I didn't take extensive notes on this reread but here's my thoughts:

mcmc is a townread, his posts feel like the most genuine scumhunting out of all of them

EFHW and Robz have the most posts that feel like partner interactions

joseph's claim read way more like the conspiracy theory could be true in retrospect but if that's the case I'm pretty sure that we're doomed

I'm ready to vote EFHW or Robz

So of the two you think EFHW is more lynch-able or more likely to flip scum?

Or you just don't want to give the appearance of OMGUS

[2.71828.....]

Went back through debates post and looked up some of the references and I really like some of his conclusions.

ADK, do you think debate is town or scum?

If town, which scum pairing that he eliminates in his rationale is a (or the) bad removal. Because he ends with you scum no matter which way you look at it.

The ADK, mcmc, EFHW team looks very intriguing to me at the moment.

[A Drowned Kernel]

So I didn't take extensive notes on this reread but here's my thoughts:

mcmc is a townread, his posts feel like the most genuine scumhunting out of all of them

EFHW and Robz have the most posts that feel like partner interactions

joseph's claim read way more like the conspiracy theory could be true in retrospect but if that's the case I'm pretty sure that we're doomed

I'm ready to vote EFHW or Robz

So of the two you think EFHW is more lynch-able or more likely to flip scum?

Or you just don't want to give the appearance of OMGUS

More likely to flip scum, but I could vote either way

[A Drowned Kernel]

Went back through debates post and looked up some of the references and I really like some of his conclusions.

ADK, do you think debate is town or scum?

If town, which scum pairing that he eliminates in his rationale is a (or the) bad removal. Because he ends with you scum no matter which way you look at it.

The ADK, mcmc, EFHW team looks very intriguing to me at the moment.

I'd like to think debate is scum just for my ego's sake but I'm less certain there than on robz/efhw. If he's town then you're much more likely to be scum just by poe

[EFHW]

Tomorrow evening I'll be home and will retrieve my notes and make a decision.

I have to say, though, that ADK/me/mcmc seems kind of out there. What's so intriguing? Do you have a narrative for us?

[mcmcsalot]

vote: efhw

I also think it’s robz/efhw/(debate/e) I don’t want to reveal which one I think is more likely between debate and e.

[mcmcsalot]

Joseph you should reveal all your reads. We have no pr, you are almost certainly dead tonight. Let’s hope we get a favorable duel tomorrow, I don’t think we are in the most dire of situations.

[2.71828.....]

Went back through debates post and looked up some of the references and I really like some of his conclusions.

ADK, do you think debate is town or scum?

If town, which scum pairing that he eliminates in his rationale is a (or the) bad removal. Because he ends with you scum no matter which way you look at it.

The ADK, mcmc, EFHW team looks very intriguing to me at the moment.

I'd like to think debate is scum just for my ego's sake but I'm less certain there than on robz/efhw. If he's town then you're much more likely to be scum just by poe

Ok.  Yeah, I feel confident in

Vote: ADK

[A Drowned Kernel]

vote: efhw

I also think it’s robz/efhw/(debate/e) I don’t want to reveal which one I think is more likely between debate and e.

I mean if it's robz/efhw/debate they just won

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 5.3

A Drowned Kernel (2): Robz888, e
EFHW (2): A Drowned Kernel, mcmcsalot

Not Voting (3): Debatepro, Joseph2302, EFHW

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

[Debatepro]

Vote: ADK

[A Drowned Kernel]

Feel like unvoting e?

[Debatepro]

Save it for night chat.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Save it for night chat.

If you're town there's not going to be another night.

But you're not town, are you?

[mcmcsalot]

vote: adk

[mcmcsalot]

Save it for night chat.

If you're town there's not going to be another night.

But you're not town, are you?

He is, I tried to keep you around one more day

[A Drowned Kernel]

Boooooo

[A Drowned Kernel]

I need to stop townreading you like, ever

[Debatepro]

No fn way.

[Debatepro]

So it’s not me and ADK, so mcmc, Robz, EFHW, e, which one is Town?

[A Drowned Kernel]

efhw I'm guessing

[Debatepro]

I had a different model with e, mcmc in 80% of scum teams, so are you all both scum?

[mcmcsalot]

I need to stop townreading you like, ever

Yea I forgive you in advance for scum reading me the next 20 games.

[mcmcsalot]

I had a different model with e, mcmc in 80% of scum teams, so are you all both scum?

Yea me, e, and efhw. Powerhouse scum team

I kinda want to throw my mvp tick to joseph lol, we did shoot joth but we weren’t sure we hit the jk or not until joseph outed him. Then we could use our strongman to get him.

[Debatepro]

efhw I'm guessing

Sorry dude. You and Robz being on opposite sides for so long and I had an early town read on EFHW, I grew wary when she was questioning me, hmm.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I had a different model with e, mcmc in 80% of scum teams, so are you all both scum?

Yea me, e, and efhw. Powerhouse scum team

I kinda want to throw my mvp tick to joseph lol, we did shoot joth but we weren’t sure we hit the jk or not until joseph outed him. Then we could use our strongman to get him.

Honestly I think you get my mvp, you had me completely fooled

[A Drowned Kernel]

e did you really vote for yourself for those duels? I am very interested to hear scum's perspective on the dueling mechanic

[mcmcsalot]

e did you really vote for yourself for those duels? I am very interested to hear scum's perspective on the dueling mechanic

He did!!! It made fake scum reading him easy for me lolol then joth and glooble and a bunch of other townies voted for duels with themselves and I got to back off which was even nicer.

We felt like if we could prevent all duels that would be best because we felt we could win a total vanilla game and the pr’s would be more dangerous than anything else.

It was nice to not have to scumhunt when duels did get accepted. I think town didn’t scumhunt enough during the pre duel phase of each day, we all just chilled out until the duel was proposed and that gave scum a really easy dialog to navigate.

[mcmcsalot]

efhw I'm guessing

Sorry dude. You and Robz being on opposite sides for so long and I had an early town read on EFHW, I grew wary when she was questioning me, hmm.

Yea it worked out really really well that efhw got you and a few other townies to town read her pretty strongly and I got a completely different group of townies to town read me so we could play against each other and make sure it wasn’t actually one of us that got lynched.

[Joseph2302]

Ugh we're endgamed, right?

[2.71828.....]

e did you really vote for yourself for those duels? I am very interested to hear scum's perspective on the dueling mechanic

I voted yes on the first two duels, but then no for the rest (even though I claimed yes to a couple of those). The first one I really was under the impression that I would get the PR from the duel, and then feel really stupid after realizing my mistake.

[2.71828.....]

Ugh we're endgamed, right?

Yes

[2.71828.....]

snip

I had a different model with e, mcmc in 80% of scum teams, so are you all both scum?

Your post removing possible scum pairs was actually really great I thought. Your only mistake: removing the EFHW&e pair because of EFHW's perfect bus vote

[2.71828.....]

If you had not removed that pair, would have looked more like this:

All possible teams:
ADK,e,EFHW
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,e,Robz
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
ADK,EFHW,Robz
ADK,MCMC,Robz
e,EFHW,MCMC
e,EFHW,Robz
e,MCMC,Robz
EFHW,MCMC,Robz

Exclusions:

EFHW & Robz  (EFHW 240, 510, 1147)
Leaves:
ADK,e,EFHW
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,e,Robz
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
ADK,MCMC,Robz
e,EFHW,MCMC
e,MCMC,Robz

ADK & Robz (ADK 960, 1287 & Robz 1278)
Leaves:
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
e,MCMC,Robz
e,EFHW,MCMC
ADK,e,EFHW

e & robz (e 508, 1040)
Leaves:
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
e,EFHW,MCMC
ADK,e,EFHW

and then the obvious result of your precious analysis (lynch ADK) would not have been as clear.

[2.71828.....]

I guess lynching mcmc was the other choice from your analysis, but of course I preferred lynching ADK

[Joseph2302]

So probably we should have duelled today then
Or lynched e

[silverspawn]

Final Vote Count Day 5

A Drowned Kernel (4): Robz888, e, Debatepro, mcmcsalot
EFHW (1): A Drowned Kernel

Not Voting (2): Joseph2302, EFHW

With 7 alive, it took 4 to lynch.

A Drowned Kernel was lyncched. They were a VT with no PRs.

[silverspawn]

Game over! The scum team of

EFHW, mcmcsalot, 2.71828.....

wins flawlessly!

[silverspawn]

Speccy QT: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/tVYqNFLtLvH
Mod QT: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/N6t5KdexVya
Mafia QT: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/ME766iVg9J93

[Joseph2302]

Oh crap, EFHW was scum too
Clearly the worst IC ever.....

[silverspawn]

I'm inclined to give EFHW the mvp but I can definitely be swayed by opinions saying otherwise. Read the mafia QT first, though.

[Uncleeurope]

I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.

I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.

What is his motivation for doing that as town?

99% just went 99.9%

I swear every time someone agrees with me it puts me on edge.

When do you not think e's scummy?

Just because I tunneled him in a game awhile back is no reason to assume it is universal.

Plus I was right, wasn’t I?

So to answer your question: When e is town.

 

[Uncleeurope]

Anyone interested in me taking too long to make a wrong decision:

https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/EqfBmWbLJKJJd

I am very tilted about that, and will remain tilted for awhile.


EFHW is an easy MVP for me at least. That was the one variable I couldn't shake from my reads.

[MiX]

From my D1 notes:

"Town: ADK, Swan, e, mcmcsalot, EFHW"

Man. And I then thought ADK was scum for hammering Swan...power team indeed.

So...why was I NK'd? I've been wanting to answer that for a looong time.

MVP's all of them, dying early with all of them in my townreads means I don't really have a preference.

[Awaclus]

https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/f8Nr6ALZpicH Here's my QT.

[2.71828.....]

For the two duels we had I feel like town got the two worst PRs on the list.

Double doctor or vig could have really changed the game up rather than neopolitan

[2.71828.....]

For the two duels we had I feel like town got the two worst PRs on the list.

Double doctor or vig could have really changed the game up rather than neopolitan

We also got super lucky as a scum team with Joseph's investigation.

[Glooble]

I feel like I contributed greatly to tanking this for town.

[Debatepro]

snip

I had a different model with e, mcmc in 80% of scum teams, so are you all both scum?

Your post removing possible scum pairs was actually really great I thought. Your only mistake: removing the EFHW&e pair because of EFHW's perfect bus vote.

Yep yep, that was a big error. Here was the the more conservative one I build after EFHW busted my chop. Should have updated to include this one.
Can’t be ADK/Robz, ADK/Debatepro, Debatepro/EFHW.

adk,e,efhw
adk,e,mcmc
adk,efhw,mcmc
debatepro,e,mcmc
debatepro,e,robz
debatepro,mcmc,robz
e,efhw,mcmc
e,efhw,robz
e,mcmc,robz
efhw,mcmc,robz

7/10: e, MCMC
5/10: EFHW, Robz
3/10: ADK, Debate

[silverspawn]

For the two duels we had I feel like town got the two worst PRs on the list.

Double doctor or vig could have really changed the game up rather than neopolitan

Isn't Neapolitan quite strong, if it doesn't happen to hit JK of all people?

For everyone's reference, the four PRs were

Double Doctor (two doctor shots at once, may self-target)
Vig
Neapolitan
Time Bomb (choose n, if mafia kills you on night n, the mafia doing the kill dies)

[silverspawn]

Something I've always wondered is what the mafia thinks it's going to do after the entire village is dead. How do they commit new crimes and earn money?

[jotheonah]

Good game everyone, and nice design Silver. I have more in-depth thoughts to share but for now I’ll say town lost this game as much as mafia won it. Not to take away from the winners’ accomplishment— a perfect game is a beautiful thing. But man, the duels gave us an opportunity to play lazy and we took it.

[jotheonah]

I am gonna take some credit for actually blocking a kill as JK though. Personal win for me.

[Joseph2302]

For the two duels we had I feel like town got the two worst PRs on the list.

Double doctor or vig could have really changed the game up rather than neopolitan

Isn't Neapolitan quite strong, if it doesn't happen to hit JK of all people?

For everyone's reference, the four PRs were

Double Doctor (two doctor shots at once, may self-target)
Vig
Neapolitan
Time Bomb (choose n, if mafia kills you on night n, the mafia doing the kill dies)

If I hadn't hit and outed the JK, yes it was strong
 Obviously I was looking for a VT from it

[Joseph2302]

And I haven't read the scum QT, but I'd give MVP to EFHW
She was my top town read, and I'd have voted ADK if I'd been around because of it

[faust]

Good game everyone, and nice design Silver. I have more in-depth thoughts to share but for now I’ll say town lost this game as much as mafia won it. Not to take away from the winners’ accomplishment— a perfect game is a beautiful thing. But man, the duels gave us an opportunity to play lazy and we took it.

Yeah, I think that is a design flaw inherent to this duel mechanic.

[Debatepro]

And I haven't read the scum QT, but I'd give MVP to EFHW
She was my top town read, and I'd have voted ADK if I'd been around because of it

I agree with EFHW as mvp, definitely has a strong town read until near the end.  It’s a super strong scumteam well played.

[Robz888]

Wow, what a disaster! Nearly every one of my calls was wrong. I sort of townread mcmc and E, and I strongly townread EFHW.

We played terribly, me perhaps most of all. I do think this setup is... pretty stacked against town? Just in that it's nearly a vanilla game. I would recommend making the duel votes public or something, just to give town more information, if this setup was to be played again.

[MiX]

Wow, what a disaster! Nearly every one of my calls was wrong. I sort of townread mcmc and E, and I strongly townread EFHW.

We played terribly, me perhaps most of all. I do think this setup is... pretty stacked against town? Just in that it's nearly a vanilla game. I would recommend making the duel votes public or something, just to give town more information, if this setup was to be played again.

OTOH the duel PRs are really good, but town doesn't know that, so duels look worse than they are.

[silverspawn]

Wow, what a disaster! Nearly every one of my calls was wrong. I sort of townread mcmc and E, and I strongly townread EFHW.

We played terribly, me perhaps most of all. I do think this setup is... pretty stacked against town? Just in that it's nearly a vanilla game. I would recommend making the duel votes public or something, just to give town more information, if this setup was to be played again.

I disagree that the setup is scum favored, though. I've said in the speccy at some point that I feel like the setup is town favored, and I think I still feel this way, a bit. The JK is super good and all of the duel PRs are quite good, too.

[silverspawn]

If we did run a similar setup again, it would have to be with a different set of PRs. They can be similarly strong (or weaker or stronger if one wants to tweak balance), but should be different. If everyone knows what they are, that changes the dynamic.

[Glooble]

What if town was give. A list of, say 8 possible PRs and told that a random 4 would be in the game?

[silverspawn]

Yeah, I guess that could work.

[EFHW]

Thanks everyone and partners e and mcmc. Here's my favorite post of the game:

mcmc:
I could see a world where scum!efhw was bussing scum!e yesterday but I purposefully tried not to tip my hand as to which way I was leaning on awaclus/e early so that there was no way efhw knew it was safe to vote e if he is in fact her partner so it’s a risky bus if it was one.

[EFHW]

MiX,  I wanted you for the nk for several reasons.  You keep the game moving, you are very hard to lynch (though many have tried) and you are unlikely to be protected.

[EFHW]

And I haven't read the scum QT, but I'd give MVP to EFHW
She was my top town read, and I'd have voted ADK if I'd been around because of it

I agree with EFHW as mvp, definitely has a strong town read until near the end.  It’s a super strong scumteam well played.

The things I said to you weren't scummy. I would say them as town. Look at it this way, I was towny and I was scum. Being towny isn't proof that you are town and you can't expect to automatically get credit for towniness, even if you thoroughly deserve it.

[silverspawn]

Alright, since I didn't hear objections since the scum QT was posted, I hereby delcare that EFHW is the mvp. This means that both your hero and your team are the biggest factor for winning! How did I get in?

Your Effigy of Hope is a key piece of you that will boost your Evolve and Mighty Guard meter. The lower the meter, the more damage you deal to nearby enemies and what other enemies you can kill and if you hit too many, you will evolve into ;Super-Effigy. Ego is an awesome thing. You want to find the best Effigy of Hope for your playstyle and your team's needs. Don't pick one simply because you like it.

[EFHW]

Thanks for the game, silver!