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Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 14231 times)

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1475 on: July 10, 2019, 11:21:16 am »

Another data point- EFHW and pubby are the last two votes on e. I buy that as a superbus if they both thought the e lynch was inevitable. But was it?
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1476 on: July 10, 2019, 11:23:26 am »

At the point when EFHW switches from pps to e, they're both at 3 votes. Do we really think scum!EFHW buses in that situation? I don't. Not when a mislynch is a game win.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1477 on: July 10, 2019, 11:32:49 am »

I have done my read through and I don't have a hell of a lot. I will post some conclusions when I have them written up.

Summary for now:

I think MiX is either Town or Traitor - I can't decide which.
I think there is Skum in [Joth, PPS]
I think there is Mafia in [Glooble, GK, E!]

So...
- [Mix, Joth, PPs] - Traitor(s)/Mafia at a absolute max of 2 (either 2 Traitors, 1 Traitor and 1 Mafia, 1 Traitor, or 1 Mafia) ... but there has to be 2 Traitors for that to be a real option... so that is not the best jumping off point.

- [MiX, Glooble, GK, E!] - Traitors(s)/Mafia at an absolute max of 3 (either 2 Traitor and 1 Mafia, 1 Traitor and 2 Mafia, or 1 Traitor and 1 Mafia) ... so, 1-2 Skum in [Glooble, GK, E!, MiX] most likely... kind of my favorite at this point.

- If MiX is NOT a Traitor, then I thin kit is either Joth or PPS. That leaves the same scenario as above, but replace MiX with Joth/PPS. Again, because of the unlikelihood of 2 Traitors, I don;t think this is the best pool to choose from.


If none of those 5 above are Skum, that means the entire Skum team would have to consist of [EFHW, Pubby, Ashes, Swan]... which is impossible because EFHW, Ashes, Swan are all in the Hood (this is assuming only 1 traitor, but still either way it doesn't make sense).

There can also only be one maximum skum in [EFHW, Ashes, Swan], and none of them can be a Traitor.

So there are a minimum of 3 Skum in [PPS, GK, E!, Joth, MiX, Pubby, Glooble].


Again, notes will follow. But right now I am at:
E!->Glooble->GK in that order.

That is mainly based on VCA. My main pool is [Glooble, GK, E!]. Day 1 ended with Glooble on the lynch and GK/E! off. Day 2 ended with Glooble and GK on the lynch and E! off.

I think there is Mafia in those three, but I want to believe there are 2/3 in regards to Skum.
Glooble and GK were on the same wagons all the times. E! was at some points and ended up always off. Adding in how many unknowns/towns there were to hammer all the wagons, and the E! L-1 vote on Day 1... I am left wanting to lynch E! today.

No way in hell scum!DatSwan makes a list like that and includes 2 of his partners.

I'm reasonably sure if there's scum in the neighborhood its ash.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1478 on: July 10, 2019, 11:49:03 am »

Given that pubby came right into today wanting to lynch ash, I really think pps is the best lynch. I know this is kind of a house of cards, but its the best I've got.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1479 on: July 10, 2019, 12:05:38 pm »

If Glooble is scum, he deserves the win. DatSwan is also towny, but if ash is the scum then who is the third party? This brings me back to DatSwan scum, ash survivor. This is hard!

ppe: Yeah, that post was what switched me to a townread on DatSwan.
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1480 on: July 10, 2019, 12:08:00 pm »

DatSwan could be survivor. Would he do a silverspawn?
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DatSwan

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1481 on: July 10, 2019, 12:30:03 pm »

We discussed voting as a bloc at one point. Thoughts on usefulness here?

I mean Iím already voting with you... not on purpose but the question is more posed to EFHW at this point.

The whole mafia not knowing traitor but makes this all very strange.
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DatSwan

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1482 on: July 10, 2019, 12:30:46 pm »

Given that pubby came right into today wanting to lynch ash, I really think pps is the best lynch. I know this is kind of a house of cards, but its the best I've got.

Or it is Pubby/EFHW or Pubby/PPS
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DatSwan

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1483 on: July 10, 2019, 12:33:33 pm »

Gotta make breakfast and stuff - will be around with an hour left or so.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1484 on: July 10, 2019, 12:35:34 pm »

Given that pubby came right into today wanting to lynch ash, I really think pps is the best lynch. I know this is kind of a house of cards, but its the best I've got.

Or it is Pubby/EFHW or Pubby/PPS

I am worried about pubby/EFHW. But I don't think scum!EFHW votes for e when she did. Her vote took the wagons from pps 3, e 3 to pps 2, e 4. That's not just a bus, that's locking in the lynch. If pps is town there and EFHW is town, the pps lynch wins them the game. I really don't see scum EFHW bussing in that scenario. Do you? What's the logic?
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1485 on: July 10, 2019, 12:36:05 pm »

Sorry I meant to say "if pps is town and EFHW is scum"
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1486 on: July 10, 2019, 01:01:45 pm »

We discussed voting as a bloc at one point. Thoughts on usefulness here?

I mean Iím already voting with you... not on purpose but the question is more posed to EFHW at this point.

The whole mafia not knowing traitor but makes this all very strange.
Why do you think that?
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DatSwan

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1487 on: July 10, 2019, 01:47:39 pm »

We discussed voting as a bloc at one point. Thoughts on usefulness here?

I mean Iím already voting with you... not on purpose but the question is more posed to EFHW at this point.

The whole mafia not knowing traitor but makes this all very strange.
Why do you think that?

Sorry - strange as in hard to solve. Like for an example you and Ash are on pps and Pubby split - but if one of you are skum you actually donít know if you are on a good wagon.

Makes Glooble a analysis harder to utilize.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1488 on: July 10, 2019, 02:06:54 pm »

If you and I are town, and EFHW is town, the scum team is either pps/ash, pubby/ash, or pubby/pps. So all we have to do is rule out pubby/ash and we can safely lynch pps. We can worry about his partner tomorrow when we have more time.

Well, pubby started the day voting for ash. So either mafia didn't select the mafia knows traitor option, or the team isn't ash/pubby. Maybe scum!pubby votes his partner to sow confusion, but I don't think so because it paints him into a corner, especially since pubby's meta is tunneling and sticking to his guns.


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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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DatSwan

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1489 on: July 10, 2019, 02:11:10 pm »

If you and I are town, and EFHW is town, the scum team is either pps/ash, pubby/ash, or pubby/pps. So all we have to do is rule out pubby/ash and we can safely lynch pps. We can worry about his partner tomorrow when we have more time.

Well, pubby started the day voting for ash. So either mafia didn't select the mafia knows traitor option, or the team isn't ash/pubby. Maybe scum!pubby votes his partner to sow confusion, but I don't think so because it paints him into a corner, especially since pubby's meta is tunneling and sticking to his guns.

Kay color me convinced. Hammer time?
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1490 on: July 10, 2019, 02:12:00 pm »

Fine by me.
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DatSwan

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1491 on: July 10, 2019, 02:31:58 pm »

OK well you are clearly Town to me and I have been on PPS like 100% since eod 1 and then just kind of dialed it off today after all the flips.... so I could go either way and I am honestly just surprised I did not get out of the shower this morning to a hammer - so screw it lol

Vote: PPS
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1492 on: July 10, 2019, 02:34:18 pm »

Thanks. If we lose its 100% on me. But I feel pretty confident.
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faust

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1493 on: July 10, 2019, 02:53:56 pm »

Day 5 Final Vote Count

pubby (2): pingpongsam, ashersky
pingpongsam (4): Glooble, EFHW, pubby, DatSwan

Not Voting (0)

With 6 alive, it took 4 to lynch.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1494 on: July 10, 2019, 03:08:35 pm »

The Mont PŤlerin addendum to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 2068

Article 13, revision
(1) Everyone has the right to own property alone as well as in association with others.
(2) No one shall ever be deprived of their property.
(3) Everyone has the right to freely invest their property.
(4) Noone shall be hindered in moving their property to other countries.

Article 31
Everyone has the right to found a corporation, and to buy and sell legal products and services without interference.

Article 32
Everyone has the right to accumulate wealth.


pingpongsam has been lynched! They were Communist Utopia, the Mafia Traitor!

Night 6 begins now and lasts until July 12, 2019, 03:00:00 pm. Night actions due in 36 hours.

Thread locked!
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Night 5)
« Reply #1495 on: July 12, 2019, 04:07:04 pm »

The commissioning of the first fusion power plant marked a new era of abundance for human civilization. While resources were still limited, easily accessible vast pools of energy allowed for near complete recycling that would otherwise have been unprofitable. For a while, tension and competition around the globe slowed.

pubby has been killed! They were Resource Wars, the Vanilla Townie!

Day 6 begins!


Vote Count 6.0


Not Voting (4): Glooble, DatSwan, EFHW, ashersky

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 6 ends on July 19, 2019, 04:00:00 pm.

Thread unlocked!
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1496 on: July 12, 2019, 04:14:22 pm »

I am very surprised to be alive.

Itís got to be ash, right? But why would ash kill pubby? Heís the only other person who he could have conceivably convinced us to lynch.

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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1497 on: July 12, 2019, 04:16:30 pm »

Whichever one of you is the survivor should claim now I guess.
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1498 on: July 12, 2019, 04:26:00 pm »

Well, that is an interesting turn of events. I was going to suggest no lynch today, since mislynching pubby would be a town loss. I need to think through the options here, but my first instinct is that survivor should not claim.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1499 on: July 12, 2019, 04:30:13 pm »

Really? If the survivor wanted to win with scum they could have done it days ago. They claim it lowers our lynch choices to 2 (since Iím pretty sure it makes me an actual IC.)
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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