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Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 15982 times)

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1450 on: July 09, 2019, 09:47:23 pm »

gkrieg's language made it seem like the traitor was already found

Quote
If there is a second traitor, you should have claimed a long time ago.

Regardless of that, if PPS is the traitor, then who is the PGO? I think PPS is SK.

vote: PPS for now

There isn’t one. The PGO is a possible role. The only role’s town has to have are vanilla cop (which was ADK) and one neighbor. Everything else is random, with a number of roles equal to the number of bonuses scum decided to take.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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pubby

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1451 on: July 09, 2019, 09:49:58 pm »

Oh nevermind I'm stupid  :'(

I'm still gonna vote for him though  8)
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DatSwan

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1452 on: July 10, 2019, 12:38:48 am »

OK so... this is all very strange.

1) PPS+Hood -  PGO would be the obv claim if the other player that is skum in is the Hood, because it allows the last remaining Mafia to not kill themselves at night (i.e. they claim and nothing happens they look good, they claim and get CCd then they know the real PGO. PPS gets lynched. Skum Hood shoot *NOT* the PGO. Has us wake up final day 3 Hood and 1 Not.

2) PPS+Pubby - Possible if Pubby is Traitor.

3) PPS+Glooble - Unlikely.

4) Glooble+Hood - Again, not a fan of Glooble lynch. I suppose if this was the set up though, as they were last to claim they could fake over claim knowing it would not skew odds for skum in hood. Also, their claim is obviously un-verifiable at this point. But stilllllllll - gut says not a great option.

5) Glooble+Pubby - Unlikely.

6) Pubby+Hood - Didn't want to claim because?... I guess not risk getting CC'd?  Makes as much sense as it doesn't so null on that.


I honestly do not know what to do with this. No one hammer while I think please.

PPS could be traitor waving off a potential Night Kill? Is that a thing that makes sense at all?
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1453 on: July 10, 2019, 01:11:01 am »

Would scum!pubby be paying so little attention to the game? Would scum!pubby have been able to fake so many town slips all at once?

I've never played with pubby before. What is his town meta?
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DatSwan

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1454 on: July 10, 2019, 01:15:07 am »

Would scum!pubby be paying so little attention to the game? Would scum!pubby have been able to fake so many town slips all at once?

I've never played with pubby before. What is his town meta?

Pretty much this - but it could also be their skum meta.
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DatSwan

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1455 on: July 10, 2019, 02:49:33 am »

Suuuuupppeeerrr Summarized VCA because I kinda got know where to go but broad strokes at this point:

Day 1:

1) GK, E!, and Glooble are all on the same wagon... a lot, over different wagons. Really leaning against Glooble here. Absolute only option is they are Traitor - and that is a stretch x 1000.

2) This is the the Final Vote Count:
MiX (3): pingpongsam, debatepro
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, gkrieg13, 2.71828.....
Debatepro (8): jotheonah, EFHW, MiX, pubby, ADK, Glooble, silverspawn, Uncleeurope
Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky
----So either EFHW, Pubby, and Glooble are all Town, or 1 of them is skum. Leaning towards 1 is skum. Since I find it unlikely at this point that there is NOT skum in the hood, and I do not think it is Glooble... that leaves either Pubby, EFHW...or Pubby!EFHW.----

3) The run up and jump off of the Pubby wagon Day 1 here actually kind of makes sense if he is Traitor. If no one else was at risk at the time it jumped off (which they weren't), it could of been double skum on a lynch just thinking they could be town.


Day 2:

1) Final Vote Count:
mcmcsalot (7): gkrieg13, DatSwan, silverspawn, PPS, MiX, Ashes, Glooble
ashersky (1): pubby
EFHW (1): 2.71828.....
silverspawn (1): jotheonah
MiX (1): EFHW
Not Voting (1): mcmcsalot

- This is pretty much the polar opposite. GK on wagon with PPS, Ashes, and Glooble.
- Removing Glooble for now, they are not an option for me today.
- PPS picked to go to MCMC over silver when they were tied (and both Town). This would be kind of odd timing if PPS was skum with GK, as it is alone just suspicious placement on the wagon. SS had Glooble and Ashes, but in the end, Glooble jumps on the MCMC wagon. I think that makes me give town points to PPS.
- The wagon was weak as shit (first to admit it). Ashes jumping on could be skum, but today I am not worrying about it as we are lynching outside the hood.


Day 3 Final Vote Count:
2.71828..... (6): MiX, jotheonah, DatSwan, Glooble, EFHW, pubby
pingpongsam (2): 2.71828....., gkrieg13
pubby (1): ashersky

- Have been waiting to bring this one up. It could go either way. When GK chose to came out, I suppose this probably had a bit to do with it. We already got E!. Then he chose to throw the towel when he and E! were both pushing PPS. So either they did it like knowing they would throw the towel (unlikely), or it was defense combined with not wanting to get on a wagon that already had skum on it.
- I personally do not believe that NO ONE was bussing. So it could be one of those three, and if I had to pick I pick Pubby.
- GK selection of PPS is odd however. They could of gone pubby, but did not. They could of gone E!, but obv did not. Instead they joined E! on PPS. EFHW and Pubby (again), both get on E! instead of elsewhere. If one is Mafia and one is Traitor that knows skum, their options were either to try to counter wagon E! (putting all 4 skum on the same wagon) or to bus. The double bus is strange, but the point stands that their other option would not be ideal either.
- Or the wagon is all town and it is [GK, E, PPS, Ashes] - which could be possible.


Day 4 obviously there is the towel throw, so yeah not a ton of VCA there. The one noticeable thing is that Pubby did open the day voting for GK. Can't decide how I feel about that.



And then all of that leads to where I was already at - either PPS or Pubby. I think I am also leaning on Pubby. I believe I would be hammer if I voted now so I am holding off until people chime in.
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DatSwan

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1456 on: July 10, 2019, 03:28:25 am »

Never mind. Vote count is:

Pubby (2) - PPS, Ashes
PPS (3) - Glooble, EFHW, Pubby
Not Voting (1) - Swan




Vote: Pubby
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faust

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1457 on: July 10, 2019, 05:27:30 am »

Vote Count 5.2

pubby (3): pingpongsam, ashersky, DatSwan
pingpongsam (3): Glooble, EFHW, pubby

Not Voting (0)

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 5 ends on July 10, 2019, 03:00:00 pm.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1458 on: July 10, 2019, 07:35:10 am »

We discussed voting as a bloc at one point. Thoughts on usefulness here?
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1459 on: July 10, 2019, 07:45:15 am »

We discussed voting as a bloc at one point. Thoughts on usefulness here?
I guess you're talking to me. Convince me that pubby would be this disconnected from the game as scum.

Do you think pps is really the pgo?
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1460 on: July 10, 2019, 07:56:30 am »

Would scum!pubby be paying so little attention to the game? Would scum!pubby have been able to fake so many town slips all at once?

I've never played with pubby before. What is his town meta?

Pretty much this - but it could also be their skum meta.
It's a lot harder to let down your partners than it is to let down a whole bunch of town, some of whom are scum.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1461 on: July 10, 2019, 09:04:41 am »

Hang on. We might have something here.

Having 2 wagons at L-1 eliminates several possible scum teams.

If pps is town, and ashersky or DatSwan is scum, they would have already hammered. So if we do believe one of pps or pubby has to be scum:

pubby/ash and pubby/DatSwan are impossible.

By the same logic, pps/EFHW is impossible.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1462 on: July 10, 2019, 09:25:39 am »

ashersky, DatSwan, EFHW, glooble, pubby, pps

asherky/Datwan only one scum in neighborhood
ashersky/EFHW see above
ashersky/glooble
ashersky/pubby ash would have hammered pps
ashersky/pingpongsam
DatSwan/EFHW only one scum in Neighborhood
DatSwan/Glooble
DatSwan/pubby pubby would have hammered pps
DatSwan/pps
EFHW/ Glooble
EFHW/pubby
EFHW/pps EFHW would have hammered
Glooble/ pubby
Glooble/pps I would definitely have hammered pubby by now
pubby/pps

So if you're not me, the only possible scum teams are:

ashersky/Glooble
ashersky/pingpongsam
DatSwan/Glooble
DatSwan/pps
EFHW/ Glooble
EFHW/pubby
Glooble/pubby
pubby/pps

If you are me, or are convinced I'm town, it's down to:

ashersky/pps
DatSwan/pps
EFHW/pubby
pubby/pps


That's three teams that contain pingpongsam, and only one that doesn't.


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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1463 on: July 10, 2019, 09:34:08 am »

I guess I'm more or less just appealing to whichever of ashersky and DatSwan is town.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1464 on: July 10, 2019, 09:38:40 am »

If you are me, or are convinced I'm town, it's down to:

ashersky/pps
DatSwan/pps
EFHW/pubby
pubby/pps

That's three teams that contain pingpongsam, and only one that doesn't.
Guess I'm staying put, then!
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1465 on: July 10, 2019, 09:43:39 am »


Day 1:

2) This is the the Final Vote Count:
MiX (3): pingpongsam, debatepro
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, gkrieg13, 2.71828.....
Debatepro (8): jotheonah, EFHW, MiX, pubby, ADK, Glooble, silverspawn, Uncleeurope
Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky
----So either EFHW, Pubby, and Glooble are all Town, or 1 of them is skum. Leaning towards 1 is skum. Since I find it unlikely at this point that there is NOT skum in the hood, and I do not think it is Glooble... that leaves either Pubby, EFHW...or Pubby!EFHW.----


DatSwan, how sure are you about this conclusion? Because your thing + my thing would make EFHW/pubby the only possible scum team.

It comes down to "is it possible town lynched debatepro all by ourselves with no scum help?" I need to reread the end of day one to answer that question.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1466 on: July 10, 2019, 10:00:52 am »

Bleh.

I forgot about debate's "how does a traitor work" question. If the scum team all thought that was a softclaim, it's totally possible town could have lynched debatepro with no scum help.

On the other hand, EFHW was vote #2 on that wagon, which isn't nothing.

Also if pubby is scum he's the traitor, so, for example, e putting him to unannounced L-1 tells us nothing.


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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1467 on: July 10, 2019, 10:15:32 am »

If traitor doesn’t know mafia, does your team POE thing work?
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1468 on: July 10, 2019, 10:16:38 am »

@EFHW: if pubby is traitor, his seeming disconnectedness works fine.  He wouldn’t want to try to hard, right?
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1469 on: July 10, 2019, 10:24:05 am »

If traitor doesn’t know mafia, does your team POE thing work?

Dammit.

I hate traitor. It's the worst role.

My whole POE thing is bunk because scum!ash or scum!DatSwan has as much of a clue whether the traitor is pps or pubby as the town players do.

Ignore that whole f**king wall of text, I just wasted everyone's time.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1470 on: July 10, 2019, 10:48:39 am »

Pardon my French, just getting a little frustrated with making the same mistake over and over again.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1471 on: July 10, 2019, 11:05:54 am »

@EFHW: if pubby is traitor, his seeming disconnectedness works fine.  He wouldn’t want to try to hard, right?

Wouldn't he want to get nk'd so he could join the qt?
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1472 on: July 10, 2019, 11:07:36 am »

@EFHW: if pubby is traitor, his seeming disconnectedness works fine.  He wouldn’t want to try to hard, right?

Wouldn't he want to get nk'd so he could join the qt?

That also costs the scum their kill for that night though.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1473 on: July 10, 2019, 11:11:15 am »

@EFHW: if pubby is traitor, his seeming disconnectedness works fine.  He wouldn’t want to try to hard, right?

Wouldn't he want to get nk'd so he could join the qt?
But, yeah, neither of them is trying much at all, so my point is not helpful. He wouldn't want to be nk'd now, because of the lost kill, but I would have expected the traitor to want to be nk'd early on.

gkrieg explicitly told the traitor not to claim by saying how he himself overclaimed and got caught in another game. I think the traitor knows mafia.

But that would mean pubby and pps are not both scum, since they are each voting the other one.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1474 on: July 10, 2019, 11:11:58 am »

*told the traitor not to breadcrumb
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