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Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 154804 times)

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1250 on: June 27, 2019, 02:42:46 pm »

I don't think we're going to win this game. In fact, I don't know if there's anything to be done to prevent handing scum a flawless victory. Maybe we should massclaim and try to catch scum more definitively.

That's a very defeatist attitude, but a mass claim is a very bad idea. If we have a tracker-reporter, then the moment they know who exactly they need to kill to win, they will make a deal with scum to make that happen.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1251 on: June 27, 2019, 02:52:52 pm »

I don't think we're going to win this game. In fact, I don't know if there's anything to be done to prevent handing scum a flawless victory. Maybe we should massclaim and try to catch scum more definitively.

That's a very defeatist attitude, but a mass claim is a very bad idea. If we have a tracker-reporter, then the moment they know who exactly they need to kill to win, they will make a deal with scum to make that happen.

What I want to say is "the only way we win is if everyone votes for who I'm voting for" but I feel like that's not going to fly. I guess I just need every town player to internalize that this lynch is going to be very, very hard and if for even a minute it starts to feel not hard that means it's probably a mislynch. I'm in a spot where, if even one of my scumreads votes for someone I immediately reconsider my vote on them (MiX is driving me crazy in this regard).

I keep coming back to e and gkrieg. I think they are our best bets. PPS could be scum but very well could be town. Same with ash. Same with, loathe as I am to say it at this point, MiX. pubby is definitely town. Glooble might be scum but I really doubt it.

gkrieg, for whatever reason, seems to be a nonstarter. That's why I think everyone should join me on e. It seems like our only hope for an achievable lynch that hits scum. But I know that pubby still thinks I'm scum for whatever reason, so he's not going to show up and join my wagon, assuming he even logs on between now and deadline. And we literally can't win without him.

So, yes, I'm being defeatist. But only because I'm pretty sure we're defeated. If you disagree, vote for e and restore my faith in humanity. I dare you.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1252 on: June 27, 2019, 02:54:02 pm »

pubby, come dialogue with me. let me try to convince you not to throw away this game. ask me anything.
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1253 on: June 27, 2019, 03:08:49 pm »

We lynch e and that's it. No I'm not scum. Scum's pps/e/gkrieg with neighbor being scum (probably ash after that vote) and someone's a third-party (maybe even myself) that is not traitor (because if it's traitor then we already lost so let's assume not). So let's do e.

Also, can we not wait untill deadline? We're not getting more information here.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1254 on: June 27, 2019, 03:24:00 pm »

I ISO'd pps and e, and I didn't get any more clarity. pps still feels slightly scummier to me, but I'm happy to trust joth and vote for e.


But first:

Can a friendly town person please give me a high-level explanation of what the traitor is and how it works? I've never played with one and read the mafia wiki on it, but I'm still unsure how it works in or could work in this game.

friendly - check
high level - very questionable

Traitor is a member of the mafia (NOT a 3rd party).  So in this game just think of it as we have 4 mafia, 1 third party

In a vanilla run of this setup (no modifications) the 3 normal mafia will share the mafia qt, they do not know the traitor, and the traitor doesn't know them.  If the mafia NK the traitor, instead of the traitor dying the traitor becomes a regular member of the mafia and has access to the qt.  If modifications are selected then they occur as stated, but just think of the vanilla style and modify from there.


What do we make of this explanation by e day 1? (bolding mine.) It seems weird to me that he would give this explanation without acknowledging the possibility of the third party choosing to be a second traitor. Does anyone else agree this is a weird omission? Is it any more likely for scum!e than for town!e?
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1255 on: June 27, 2019, 03:31:33 pm »

I ISO'd pps and e, and I didn't get any more clarity. pps still feels slightly scummier to me, but I'm happy to trust joth and vote for e.


But first:

Can a friendly town person please give me a high-level explanation of what the traitor is and how it works? I've never played with one and read the mafia wiki on it, but I'm still unsure how it works in or could work in this game.

friendly - check
high level - very questionable

Traitor is a member of the mafia (NOT a 3rd party).  So in this game just think of it as we have 4 mafia, 1 third party

In a vanilla run of this setup (no modifications) the 3 normal mafia will share the mafia qt, they do not know the traitor, and the traitor doesn't know them.  If the mafia NK the traitor, instead of the traitor dying the traitor becomes a regular member of the mafia and has access to the qt.  If modifications are selected then they occur as stated, but just think of the vanilla style and modify from there.


What do we make of this explanation by e day 1? (bolding mine.) It seems weird to me that he would give this explanation without acknowledging the possibility of the third party choosing to be a second traitor. Does anyone else agree this is a weird omission? Is it any more likely for scum!e than for town!e?

It sounds like hopeful town dreaming of a life without third-party just being scum. Or, you know, it's scum looking at the worst case scenario. I would disregard it.
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Swowl

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1256 on: June 27, 2019, 04:28:22 pm »

Vote: E!

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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1257 on: June 27, 2019, 04:30:34 pm »

Okay lets do this. vote: e
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1258 on: June 27, 2019, 04:34:36 pm »

I ISO'd pps and e, and I didn't get any more clarity. pps still feels slightly scummier to me, but I'm happy to trust joth and vote for e.


But first:

Can a friendly town person please give me a high-level explanation of what the traitor is and how it works? I've never played with one and read the mafia wiki on it, but I'm still unsure how it works in or could work in this game.

friendly - check
high level - very questionable

Traitor is a member of the mafia (NOT a 3rd party).  So in this game just think of it as we have 4 mafia, 1 third party

In a vanilla run of this setup (no modifications) the 3 normal mafia will share the mafia qt, they do not know the traitor, and the traitor doesn't know them.  If the mafia NK the traitor, instead of the traitor dying the traitor becomes a regular member of the mafia and has access to the qt.  If modifications are selected then they occur as stated, but just think of the vanilla style and modify from there.


What do we make of this explanation by e day 1? (bolding mine.) It seems weird to me that he would give this explanation without acknowledging the possibility of the third party choosing to be a second traitor. Does anyone else agree this is a weird omission? Is it any more likely for scum!e than for town!e?

I don't see why scum would make that omission. I actually think scum is less likely to make that omission because they would have talked about the second traitor in their QT I think.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1259 on: June 27, 2019, 04:36:20 pm »

vote: e

This seems like the best consensus wagon and I think it has an extremely good chance of hitting scum.

Ash, Friday morning is the deadline. So we're at about T-48 hours.

Isn't the consensus wagon not where we want to lynch today? With 5 town and 5 non-town, consensus is more likely to come on a candidate that is town.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1260 on: June 27, 2019, 04:37:24 pm »

vote: PPS
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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1261 on: June 27, 2019, 04:38:25 pm »

I think scum lurks to a victory here, which is not what e has been doing.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1262 on: June 27, 2019, 04:39:34 pm »

I think scum lurks to a victory here, which is not what e has been doing.

I think scum half-heartedly defends their partner after voting for the scummiest townie here.
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Swowl

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1263 on: June 27, 2019, 04:45:07 pm »

@ Joth - Where are you now currently at on who you think is Traitor? I am assuming at this point there is only 1.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1264 on: June 27, 2019, 04:48:23 pm »

@ Joth - Where are you now currently at on who you think is Traitor? I am assuming at this point there is only 1.

MiX.
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1265 on: June 27, 2019, 04:52:39 pm »

@ Joth - Where are you now currently at on who you think is Traitor? I am assuming at this point there is only 1.

MiX.

Yet you're voting for the wagon I started? No wonder you think we're gonna lose.
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1266 on: June 27, 2019, 04:56:20 pm »

vote: e. L-1
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1267 on: June 27, 2019, 04:56:44 pm »

@ Joth - Where are you now currently at on who you think is Traitor? I am assuming at this point there is only 1.

MiX.

Yet you're voting for the wagon I started? No wonder you think we're gonna lose.

1. We don’t know if Traitor knows mafia.
2. I’m less sure about you than about others.
3. gkrieg remains my first choice
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Swowl

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1268 on: June 27, 2019, 04:59:35 pm »

Literally only skum quick hammers here - everyone else needs to wait for E! to check in.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1269 on: June 27, 2019, 05:01:38 pm »

Now seems like as good a time as any to say that I am more or less expecting to be nightkilled, and if I am you should know that I have not been holding anything back; all my thoughts and reads are in my posts from today. The only thing that's changed is I've become more suspicious of ash, which makes me think the team is {ash, e, gkrieg} with the traitor among {MiX, pps, Glooble, pubby} in that order of likelihood. My best guess on third party is Survivor!EFHW who has decided to win with town, or Tracker/Reporter {MiX, pps, pubby}. I don't think that can be Glooble because he's the one who keeps reminding us not to do a mass claim and let them win.
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Swowl

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1270 on: June 27, 2019, 05:02:56 pm »

@ MiX - What is your read on GK?
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1271 on: June 27, 2019, 05:04:12 pm »

@ MiX - What is your read on GK?

Scum or traitor. I believe I said this already, but scum's in (gkrieg/e/pps) and neighbor, which I have narrowed down to (efhw/ash). I have no idea what third-party is doing.
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pubby

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1272 on: June 27, 2019, 05:35:09 pm »

vote: e
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1273 on: June 27, 2019, 05:36:19 pm »

Well, time for the big reveal: what scum PR was he?
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Swowl

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1274 on: June 27, 2019, 07:12:18 pm »

Well, time for the big reveal: what scum PR was he?

I suppose this is comforting... I think.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss
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