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Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 154884 times)

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2.71828.....

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1225 on: June 25, 2019, 04:06:50 pm »

Re-framing scummy play as "bait for scum to jump on"

I don't know, is this bait for me to vote you here as well? How can I know what is bait and what is just scummy?

I think it's town bait so that he dies instead of you. That's the only thing that's keeping me from voting pps right now.

So you think we are both scum but he decided to get himself lynched instead of me? That doesn't make any sense. Why would an alleged partner of mine try to redirect a lynch onto themself?
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1226 on: June 25, 2019, 04:07:48 pm »

I mean it is a creative thought to fit things nicely into the narrative that you have created
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1227 on: June 25, 2019, 04:26:06 pm »

Re-framing scummy play as "bait for scum to jump on"

I don't know, is this bait for me to vote you here as well? How can I know what is bait and what is just scummy?

I think it's town bait so that he dies instead of you. That's the only thing that's keeping me from voting pps right now.

So you think we are both scum but he decided to get himself lynched instead of me? That doesn't make any sense. Why would an alleged partner of mine try to redirect a lynch onto themself?

Pps does weird things for weird reasons, I'm not sure why he wants to die, but he sure does, so there has to be a good reason for it.

I mean it is a creative thought to fit things nicely into the narrative that you have created

Thank you.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1228 on: June 25, 2019, 05:13:17 pm »

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps


Uh, I don't follow this analysis at all..., like what? Someone sitting at L-4 does not mean that someone is scum at this point.

And what about that wagon makes you think pubby is town?

Quote fail:

I could be missing something from context.. but I believe the quoted would be 7 votes on Pubby putting him at L-1 at that time right? Not L-4?

Sorry, there were two thoughts in the post I quoted. One was saying that joth sitting at L-4 for more than a day indicates that someone on the wagon or joth himself is scum, which is what the first comment was.

The second thought was the thing about pubby, who was indeed at L-1.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1229 on: June 25, 2019, 05:14:44 pm »

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps


Uh, I don't follow this analysis at all..., like what? Someone sitting at L-4 does not mean that someone is scum at this point.

And what about that wagon makes you think pubby is town?
Quicklynch + nk = scum win.

Re pubby, there was no reason to bus at that point and several of the scummier players are on that wagon. Chances of you, MiX, e, and Glooble all being town?

My argument is that at the time scum thought debate was the traitor, so we’ll find them amongst the people who stayed on pubby and didn’t want to move to debate. Bolstering this is the fact that the derailing of the pubby wagon was done by conf!town Eddie pretty singlehandedly.

Why would scum think that debatepro was the traitor? I guess I just don't think this is a very strong argument. Town derail wagons on scum more often than scum do IMO.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1230 on: June 25, 2019, 05:15:59 pm »

Re-framing scummy play as "bait for scum to jump on"

I don't know, is this bait for me to vote you here as well? How can I know what is bait and what is just scummy?

I think it's town bait so that he dies instead of you. That's the only thing that's keeping me from voting pps right now.

So you think we are both scum but he decided to get himself lynched instead of me? That doesn't make any sense. Why would an alleged partner of mine try to redirect a lynch onto themself?

Pps does weird things for weird reasons, I'm not sure why he wants to die, but he sure does, so there has to be a good reason for it.

I mean it is a creative thought to fit things nicely into the narrative that you have created

Thank you.

Ya, this makes no sense from MiX.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1231 on: June 25, 2019, 07:07:58 pm »

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps


Uh, I don't follow this analysis at all..., like what? Someone sitting at L-4 does not mean that someone is scum at this point.

And what about that wagon makes you think pubby is town?
Quicklynch + nk = scum win.

Re pubby, there was no reason to bus at that point and several of the scummier players are on that wagon. Chances of you, MiX, e, and Glooble all being town?

My argument is that at the time scum thought debate was the traitor, so we’ll find them amongst the people who stayed on pubby and didn’t want to move to debate. Bolstering this is the fact that the derailing of the pubby wagon was done by conf!town Eddie pretty singlehandedly.

Why would scum think that debatepro was the traitor? I guess I just don't think this is a very strong argument. Town derail wagons on scum more often than scum do IMO.

There was a lot of discussion about it at the time. That some of his setup y’all could be traitor signaling.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1232 on: June 26, 2019, 03:07:40 am »

I have done my read through and I don't have a hell of a lot. I will post some conclusions when I have them written up.

Summary for now:

I think MiX is either Town or Traitor - I can't decide which.
I think there is Skum in [Joth, PPS]
I think there is Mafia in [Glooble, GK, E!]

So...
- [Mix, Joth, PPs] - Traitor(s)/Mafia at a absolute max of 2 (either 2 Traitors, 1 Traitor and 1 Mafia, 1 Traitor, or 1 Mafia) ... but there has to be 2 Traitors for that to be a real option... so that is not the best jumping off point.

- [MiX, Glooble, GK, E!] - Traitors(s)/Mafia at an absolute max of 3 (either 2 Traitor and 1 Mafia, 1 Traitor and 2 Mafia, or 1 Traitor and 1 Mafia) ... so, 1-2 Skum in [Glooble, GK, E!, MiX] most likely... kind of my favorite at this point.

- If MiX is NOT a Traitor, then I thin kit is either Joth or PPS. That leaves the same scenario as above, but replace MiX with Joth/PPS. Again, because of the unlikelihood of 2 Traitors, I don;t think this is the best pool to choose from.


If none of those 5 above are Skum, that means the entire Skum team would have to consist of [EFHW, Pubby, Ashes, Swan]... which is impossible because EFHW, Ashes, Swan are all in the Hood (this is assuming only 1 traitor, but still either way it doesn't make sense).

There can also only be one maximum skum in [EFHW, Ashes, Swan], and none of them can be a Traitor.

So there are a minimum of 3 Skum in [PPS, GK, E!, Joth, MiX, Pubby, Glooble].


Again, notes will follow. But right now I am at:
E!->Glooble->GK in that order.

That is mainly based on VCA. My main pool is [Glooble, GK, E!]. Day 1 ended with Glooble on the lynch and GK/E! off. Day 2 ended with Glooble and GK on the lynch and E! off.

I think there is Mafia in those three, but I want to believe there are 2/3 in regards to Skum.
Glooble and GK were on the same wagons all the times. E! was at some points and ended up always off. Adding in how many unknowns/towns there were to hammer all the wagons, and the E! L-1 vote on Day 1... I am left wanting to lynch E! today.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1233 on: June 26, 2019, 08:51:24 am »

Still crazy swamped this week, basically until Friday night my time. When is deadline?

I am reading any chance I get.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Night 2)
« Reply #1234 on: June 26, 2019, 10:10:20 am »

Vote Count 3.3

gkrieg13 (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (1): pubby
2.71828..... (1): MiX
pingpongsam (1): EFHW
pubby (1): 2.71828.....

Not Voting (5): DatSwan, ashersky, gkrieg13, Glooble, pingpongsam

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends on June 28, 2019, 10:10:00 am, in 48 hours.
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1235 on: June 26, 2019, 10:55:17 am »

5 wagons, zero overlap. That’s something.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1236 on: June 26, 2019, 11:07:38 am »

vote: e

This seems like the best consensus wagon and I think it has an extremely good chance of hitting scum.

Ash, Friday morning is the deadline. So we're at about T-48 hours.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1237 on: June 26, 2019, 11:08:01 am »

5 wagons, zero overlap. That’s something.

Some of that is due to your own caution against providing the opportunity for quickhammers...
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Swowl

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1238 on: June 26, 2019, 01:47:45 pm »

holding off until until after work today (10 hours from now or so) then will be placing a vote.
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real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1239 on: June 26, 2019, 02:46:19 pm »

vote: e

This seems like the best consensus wagon and I think it has an extremely good chance of hitting scum.

Ash, Friday morning is the deadline. So we're at about T-48 hours.

No, vote: PPS is better
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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1240 on: June 26, 2019, 08:35:14 pm »

Won’t get to this until tomorrow unfortunately.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1241 on: June 26, 2019, 10:29:17 pm »

Switching to e tomorrow,  when I can monitor for quicklynch.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1242 on: June 27, 2019, 09:42:12 am »

vote: pubby

To ensure I have a vote down. I should be around at deadline; my huge test is in 15 or so hours.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1243 on: June 27, 2019, 11:35:31 am »

vote: pubby

To ensure I have a vote down. I should be around at deadline; my huge test is in 15 or so hours.

Ugh, why pubby? Is it because you’re scum?
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1244 on: June 27, 2019, 11:38:14 am »

Pubby is obvtown for myriad reasons. Please put your vote somewhere real.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1245 on: June 27, 2019, 12:10:03 pm »

I'm happy with e or pps, but I was hoping to ISO them and decide which was scummier. But I don't know when I'll have both the time and the mental energy to do that (primary debate kept me up past my bedtime last night and I'm running on fumes.)
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1246 on: June 27, 2019, 01:55:41 pm »

I'm happy with e or pps, but I was hoping to ISO them and decide which was scummier. But I don't know when I'll have both the time and the mental energy to do that (primary debate kept me up past my bedtime last night and I'm running on fumes.)

This is where I am as well. E has been townier lately but I feel like I really need to reread but I’m not sure it is going to happen. Chances are they are both scum anyways.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1247 on: June 27, 2019, 02:18:55 pm »

I don't think we're going to win this game. In fact, I don't know if there's anything to be done to prevent handing scum a flawless victory. Maybe we should massclaim and try to catch scum more definitively.
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1248 on: June 27, 2019, 02:34:15 pm »

I don't think we're going to win this game. In fact, I don't know if there's anything to be done to prevent handing scum a flawless victory. Maybe we should massclaim and try to catch scum more definitively.

We kill e/pps, one of them is clearly scum, and there's a good chance both are. Trust me, we're not leaving this game empty handed. We're going to lose, however. That said, with lynching the towniest man alive (mcmc) I'd say we deserve it, so meh.

vote: pubby

To ensure I have a vote down. I should be around at deadline; my huge test is in 15 or so hours.

Ugh, why pubby? Is it because you’re scum?

Yes. Yes it is.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1249 on: June 27, 2019, 02:40:13 pm »

We’re going to kill the wrong one. We need every. Single. Town. Player, PLUS the third party to vote together to lynch scum here. Scum won’t bus because they don’t need to. They will make super lame excuses to vote for town players. It’s happening already.

I don’t think there’s any way in hell this town can vote all as a block. So at the last minute, desperate to get a lynch, we’ll lynch someone we can successfully lynch, which will be the scummiest town player who has a few scum votes on them. And then we’ll lose.
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