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[MiX]

Okay let's get PoEing, shall we?

Let's assume there's no Survivor+Scum in neighbor, because then they should probably have claimed and vigged the other neighbor (maybe, it's not as clear cut as EFHW thinks but it's close). Then out of (EFHW/ash/Swan) there's 2 town. Now, we know that joth is town because there's no way in hell scum!joth makes that much effort, his behavior comes from town!joth much more.

If I'm town, that leaves (pubby/pps/e/gkrieg/Glooble/Neighbor) for our 5 scum. This means that if we can determine even ONE town from these (well, from the first 5), we can PoE the entire scum team. The problem? I'm stuck between pubby and Glooble for town. However, this still means e/gkrieg is scum.

Vote: gkrieg

[EFHW]

You left out the neighbors as possible scum.

Why are you doing everything so fast?

[MiX]

You left out the neighbors as possible scum.

Why are you doing everything so fast?

Because PoE is amazing and rereading is haaaard. Besides pps/e/gkrieg have gotten zero pressure and, thus, have pretty much nothing to reread.

Only 1 neighbor can be scum if we believe survivor+scum would vig the other town, and even without that there must be 1 town in there.

[EFHW]

But you are assuming 5 scum for your POE, and treating yourself and joth as conf!town.
 

[MiX]

But you are assuming 5 scum for your POE, and treating yourself and joth as conf!town.
 

There's 5 scum (because why would I assume third-party wants to side with town?) and me/joth are conf!town from my perspective, so what's wrong? You can reach gkrieg is scum from other PoVs, but I only need mine to vote. It should work even if you don't have conf!town reads from anyone outside the hood, just from how towny joth/Glooble/pubby are.

[Glooble]

I'm townreading gkrieg, partially based on gut and partially based on something I don't really want to disclose.

Anyone have any idea what silverspawn was referring to here? I wrote it down in my notes and it looks like he saw a soft claim, but I didn’t find anything in any of gkrieg’s posts that looked like one.

I think I could get behind a gkrieg lynch. My townread on him was half that and half the fact that he seemed to have a genuine sense of urgency about the number of scum and how quickly the game might end, which seemed more towny than scummy to me.

[EFHW]

But you are assuming 5 scum for your POE, and treating yourself and joth as conf!town.
 

There's 5 scum (because why would I assume third-party wants to side with town?) and me/joth are conf!town from my perspective, so what's wrong? You can reach gkrieg is scum from other PoVs, but I only need mine to vote. It should work even if you don't have conf!town reads from anyone outside the hood, just from how towny joth/Glooble/pubby are.

It's just that it makes the POE not that useful for the rest of us.

[MiX]

I'm townreading gkrieg, partially based on gut and partially based on something I don't really want to disclose.

Anyone have any idea what silverspawn was referring to here? I wrote it down in my notes and it looks like he saw a soft claim, but I didn’t find anything in any of gkrieg’s posts that looked like one.

I think I could get behind a gkrieg lynch. My townread on him was half that and half the fact that he seemed to have a genuine sense of urgency about the number of scum and how quickly the game might end, which seemed more towny than scummy to me.

I also get that towny vibe, that whenever I look at him I go "yeah, yeah, he's town, let's move along". Makes me want him dead more. I can get behind a pps/e lynch as well, maybe even more. But I mostly want gkrieg to tell me why they're not scum.

But you are assuming 5 scum for your POE, and treating yourself and joth as conf!town.
 

There's 5 scum (because why would I assume third-party wants to side with town?) and me/joth are conf!town from my perspective, so what's wrong? You can reach gkrieg is scum from other PoVs, but I only need mine to vote. It should work even if you don't have conf!town reads from anyone outside the hood, just from how towny joth/Glooble/pubby are.

It's just that it makes the POE not that useful for the rest of us.

Just join the cool kids and sheep joth, that's the correct move here.

[MiX]

Okay, okay, I'll ISO my scumreads to show precisely how much they're not doing anything this game. Let's start with pps, that should be easy.


So, pps. Talks about how much I play like him. Then he says he doesn't like setup talk. He leaves his vote on me from RVS, and that's all there is for D1. In D2, he starts by lowering his scumread on me (which could be scum thinking I'm traitor, wouldn't that be fun), but really his play's summarized in this post:

I'm basically null on everyone.

Where I think he "scumreads" joth and Glooble and townreads the neighbors. And then he votes on mcmc in EoD. That's all for D2.


So as you can see, very eloquent. Now E, our next scum!lurker:


D1 he does the following: scumreads ss, townreads ash, scumreads Swan, votes pubby (L-1) and that's all.

D2 he goes against hood claiming, townreads MiX, scumreads joth, townreads Glooble, makes a case on EFHW (oh look, effort) and...yep, that's all.


As you can see, these 2 don't really have a lot more than reads. Really, the only real case in these 2 players in e's EFHW case, which was a bunch of quotes, essencially. They don't even vote that often. But surely there's a lot for gkrieg right? Please?


RVS votes Eddie, disencourages me from voting him, scumreads ash, something about me wanting to join the townblock, defending against my "gkrieg's helping traitor" vote by deflecting onto EFHW (that was smart, good job gkrieg), scumreads Swan, actually provides a good case for Swan (scummy because I think Swan's town), townreads mcmc, pushes pps a little (pps doesn't really respond), townreads MiX, I think he townreads debate? Regardless he votes pubby and that ends D1.

Okay, I shouldn't had done the same to gkrieg as I did to the others, he's not really lurking. Still, his D1 is deflecting votes, making cases for town, "pushing" scum that leads to nothing and voting for pubby, who I think is town right now. Now, D2:

Well, I'm not going to detail everything, but gkrieg essencially starts scumreading joth and townreading me, then he supports lynching outside the hood, in his popsquiz he has "MiX, Swan, mcmc, pubby" in "scummy/null" (Swan's mostly there because he townreads ash and EFHW), then he votes mcmc.


What do I get from this? gkrieg is trying. And he really doesn't like votes on him. Not much else to say.


So there's the scumteam in its glory. Or at least part of it, maybe 1's traitor/third-party. They're all lurking. No great cases. None of them go for debatepro, none of them go for ss, which seems to be what town's been doing. They either put votes on lynch wagons (e/gkrieg in D1, pps/gkrieg in D2) or they push cases on town (e pushed EFHW D2, gkrieg pushed Swan D1 with E's support). But I think the evidence all comes crashing down on E here, more than the other 2. So,

Vote: E instead. But really it's all 3 of them.

[Glooble]

What do we make of gkrieg pointing out the possibility of the PGO causing an early MYLO? I think that's the most memorable thing he's done this game. Joth found it slightly scummy whereas I think it's slightly towny.

[MiX]

What do we make of gkrieg pointing out the possibility of the PGO causing an early MYLO? I think that's the most memorable thing he's done this game. Joth found it slightly scummy whereas I think it's slightly towny.

We didn't need PGO to do that, for all we know we're endgamed already. I think it was null, his specific "D1 is MyLo" scenario is completely useless whereas my "D2 is MyLo" is useful, given that it might've happened this game and we're not endgamed due to a formality.

[jotheonah]

What do we make of gkrieg pointing out the possibility of the PGO causing an early MYLO? I think that's the most memorable thing he's done this game. Joth found it slightly scummy whereas I think it's slightly towny.

Setup talk is the easiest way to contribute early. It often comes from scum.

[faust]

Vote Count 3.2

gkrieg13 (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (2): pingpongsam, pubby
2.71828..... (1): MiX

Not Voting (6): DatSwan, EFHW, 2.71828....., ashersky, gkrieg13, Glooble

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends on June 28, 2019, 10:10:00 am.

[Glooble]

What do we make of gkrieg pointing out the possibility of the PGO causing an early MYLO? I think that's the most memorable thing he's done this game. Joth found it slightly scummy whereas I think it's slightly towny.

Setup talk is the easiest way to contribute early. It often comes from scum.

I understand that in theory, but I think people on this board like to say that without actually looking into the nuances of the specific setup points raised and whether they are actually pro-town.

I think gkrieg's was, because it was, in my mind, fully possible that the town PGO, if they exist, hadn't considered this angle.

[ashersky]

Hey all, sorry for only flitting in and out.  I have a huge thing on Friday for which I must prepare which is taking most of my attention and energy. I like the thinking coming out of some nice analysis posts. Of the wagons, I find joth’s the worst, and wonder if that’s not the easy one to pile on.

My lynch choices are probably MiX and pubby right now?  I admit to not knowing them as well as some vets (well, MiX is always just an enigma, which I assume is on purpose for scum reasons).

[EFHW]

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps

[EFHW]

Would also vote e.

[jotheonah]

Hey all, sorry for only flitting in and out.  I have a huge thing on Friday for which I must prepare which is taking most of my attention and energy. I like the thinking coming out of some nice analysis posts. Of the wagons, I find joth’s the worst, and wonder if that’s not the easy one to pile on.

My lynch choices are probably MiX and pubby right now?  I admit to not knowing them as well as some vets (well, MiX is always just an enigma, which I assume is on purpose for scum reasons).

I’ll lynch MiX but strongly prefer gkrieg, e, or pps. Any thoughts on those three?

[Glooble]

If we're consolidating, I think I would my preferences would be thus:

{e, pps} --> {gkrieg}--> {MiX}

[jotheonah]

I mean we DO have four days. So we're not scrambling for a lynch. But why drag it out?

[MiX]

If we're consolidating, I think I would my preferences would be thus:

{e, pps} --> {gkrieg}--> {MiX}

That's my idea right now (damn you gkrieg and your scummy townieness), with a caveat that lynching me ends the game. But if the other 3 are somehow town, then yeah.

I mean we DO have four days. So we're not scrambling for a lynch. But why drag it out?

I would like for them to defend themselves, post their reads and why they're super town and they have done nothing but help town throughout the game. I mean, let's face it, one of them might be town, right? But I actually want them all dead. E first because they haven't flinched once. Ever.

[2.71828.....]

If we're consolidating, I think I would my preferences would be thus:

{e, pps} --> {gkrieg}--> {MiX}

That's my idea right now (damn you gkrieg and your scummy townieness), with a caveat that lynching me ends the game. But if the other 3 are somehow town, then yeah.

I mean we DO have four days. So we're not scrambling for a lynch. But why drag it out?

I would like for them to defend themselves, post their reads and why they're super town and they have done nothing but help town throughout the game. I mean, let's face it, one of them might be town, right? But I actually want them all dead. E first because they haven't flinched once. Ever.

What does flinch mean in this context? It sounds like something I wouldn't do as town or scum. Have you ever seen me flinch? Ever?

[2.71828.....]

I don't have a lot that I can do to defend my play, but I can try to lynch scum.

Joth and Ash are my top two town reads
Then Glooble.

That leaves me 4 scum in
PPS
pubby
MiX
Gkrieg
Datswan
EFHW

I totally reject the idea that scum takes zero enhancements, and I also think scum wants to know all the information. Which means even if neighborhood isn't mathematically (or whatever you all decided) the best, I think they took it.

So one scum in EFHW, Datswan, Ash. I choose you, EFHW! D2 came out looking to pin a fellow neighbor as scum, when that didn't work backed off the idea and somehow no one thinks that is scummy. It also makes Datswan town. So now....

3 scum in
Pubby
PPS
MiX
Gkrieg

Pubby is getting some town reads from the active folk, but guess what? Activity does not mean accuracy. Pubby's tunneling is a perfect way to hide scum play, then I bring it up and they mention going back and relooking things. And where is that relook?

PPS is getting some scum reads, but they feel more PoE driven than anything. But then again, PoE is strong here.

Gkrieg and MiX I am the most undecided on. I feel fairly confident that gkrieg is scum, I just don't trust it. And I feel fairly confident that MiX is town, I just don't trust that either.

But I will vote what I do think is our best option right now.

Vote: pubby

I prefer EFHW but there is still too much lingering "neighbors are masons" sentiment going around for that right now.

[gkrieg13]

#117 gkrieg points out that scum doesn’t have any control over whether we’re in Lylo day 2

“If you look at the setup, scum has no way of influencing this set of things to happen, so I don't know why it has any affect good or bad for town.

this is the sort of info scum is more likely to have at their fingertips than town…

This is also the sort of info that someone who had posted about us being in MYLO D2 would have at their fingertips because they literally just looked at the setup.

[gkrieg13]

oh and vote: gkrieg

I may do a day 2 reread later this weekend, but I'm wiped out for tonight. That was legit like more than an hour of work.

I'm confused how this came out of your reread of D1.