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Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 155024 times)

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Swowl

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1150 on: June 22, 2019, 07:00:05 pm »

@ Joth - Feel my pain. Doesn't it suck to write all of it for nothing? Except... I expect it is not for nothing and it is just the weekend. I am home now and need to do my own re read and then I will let you know what I think of yours.

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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1151 on: June 22, 2019, 11:18:17 pm »

massclaim?

Maybe? Scum can already guarantee avoiding the PGO by just killing in the neighborhood, so that edge is diminished. The fact that they chose not to do that last night tells me they’re not that worried about it though.

On the other hand, if we do have a tracker reporter the massclaim might allow them to negotiate with scum for a shared victory.

This post has me thinking town on Glooble.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1152 on: June 22, 2019, 11:19:24 pm »

massclaim?

Maybe? Scum can already guarantee avoiding the PGO by just killing in the neighborhood, so that edge is diminished. The fact that they chose not to do that last night tells me they’re not that worried about it though.

Skum could be worried there is a Survivor.

If there is a Survivor and a Skum in the Hood then they would not of killed inside because they are 50-50 on hitting Survivor and then 50-50 on hitting themselves from that. That is a long shot, but just pointing it out.

And this post has me thinking town on DatSwan.
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Swowl

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1153 on: June 23, 2019, 12:53:50 am »

vote: joth

SERIOUSLY!?!? &@$@$”@$&@$”@&”@&&@@&@0”$9!

vote: joth

SERIOUSLY!?!? &@$@$”@$&@$”@&”@&&@@&@0”$9!

Just finished rereading pubby and at least this is consistent with his entire game.

That being said, he has expressed 2 real opinions: joth and ashersky are scum. Joth being scum was D1, then he added ashersky D2. I could easily see him as scum just tunneling as a lurker to maintain the ability to "contribute" while not posting

I could also say E! Is lurking and picking on easy lynch targets. The words you string together are not a case. Or at at least more of a case anyone can make in 10 seconds ./
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1154 on: June 23, 2019, 10:09:36 am »

Okay, as everyone has posted now, I think we can safely assume 3rd party chose Reporter.

No extra kills makes SK so highly unlikely that I’m just not considering it.
A Survivor would have claimed and won with scum by forcing a no lynch (survivor + traitor claim = 5 votes).
A second traitor would have claimed as in the survivor scenario.

The only issue I can see with this analysis is if the survivor prefers “trying to win with town” over “guaranteed win with mafia.”  In that case, it seems to me that claiming and stating as such would be a big boon to us.

Do folks agree that the survivor amongst EFHW, Datswan, and I should claim and pick a side?  Again, if they were against us, they would have already claimed anyway, so I see no downside (they can’t be killed at night so long as the other neighbors are alive) for anyone.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1155 on: June 23, 2019, 10:11:04 am »

(Note: per my own analysis I don’t actually think there is a survivor.)
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pingpongsam

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1156 on: June 23, 2019, 11:13:44 am »

Is Mafia targeted traitor not a good space for SK exists?
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1157 on: June 23, 2019, 12:00:21 pm »

I hope this isn’t scum!ash making sure the third-party traitor knows they have to claim to win...
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1158 on: June 23, 2019, 12:11:57 pm »

I hope this isn’t scum!ash making sure the third-party traitor knows they have to claim to win...

They don't actually, if there's a traitor scum already won.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1159 on: June 23, 2019, 03:57:23 pm »

I hope this isn’t scum!ash making sure the third-party traitor knows they have to claim to win...

They don't actually, if there's a traitor scum already won.

There’s always a traitor. Stop trying so hard to townslip.
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pingpongsam

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1160 on: June 23, 2019, 04:09:22 pm »

I hope this isn’t scum!ash making sure the third-party traitor knows they have to claim to win...

They don't actually, if there's a traitor scum already won.

There’s always a traitor. Stop trying so hard to townslip.

There is certainly 1 traitor. 3rd party could make it 2. It’s a valid point that should it be slapped down.
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1161 on: June 23, 2019, 04:50:21 pm »

I hope this isn’t scum!ash making sure the third-party traitor knows they have to claim to win...

They don't actually, if there's a traitor scum already won.

There’s always a traitor. Stop trying so hard to townslip.

You know what I mean, stop thinking I'm trying to townslip when I just mentioned something very important. In theory we're not endgamed, but in practice if the thirdparty's a traitor we have already lost.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1162 on: June 23, 2019, 06:17:00 pm »

Unvote
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1163 on: June 23, 2019, 08:16:59 pm »

Okay, as everyone has posted now, I think we can safely assume 3rd party chose Reporter.

No extra kills makes SK so highly unlikely that I’m just not considering it.
A Survivor would have claimed and won with scum by forcing a no lynch (survivor + traitor claim = 5 votes).
A second traitor would have claimed as in the survivor scenario.

The only issue I can see with this analysis is if the survivor prefers “trying to win with town” over “guaranteed win with mafia.”  In that case, it seems to me that claiming and stating as such would be a big boon to us.

Do folks agree that the survivor amongst EFHW, Datswan, and I should claim and pick a side?  Again, if they were against us, they would have already claimed anyway, so I see no downside (they can’t be killed at night so long as the other neighbors are alive) for anyone.

So I have this thing regarding the survivor claims and skum wins thing. I don't really know how to word it super well, but here it goes. Scenario:
Let's say you are a Skum player, and then a non-Skum player comes out today at this point and claims to be the Survivor.

From a skum players POV... I mean... they are gonna be suspicious right? I don't even know what exactly they could be suspicious about.

I am throwing around things in my head like "the claimed survivor could be a Traitor" but that would make no sense unless they somehow knew there were 2 Traitors, which can't happen... or like "A random VT could do it to just try to get Skum to out themselves" but then of course they could just do the same plan and if there IS a Survivor or a Traitor... skum would still win.

So all in all... I doubt at this point that skum would just all "raise their hands" if someone claimed Traitor or Survivor. IDK what I think they would do, but at a minimum I think they would hold one identity back.

Which leads me into the thought of the Survivor claiming.... If there is ever a point where a Survivor thought they were a 100% lock on a win with Skum -I imagine they would take it. This is for sure not a 100% lock. I am not going to speak of the defense that town could play, and neither should anyone else... but if you have not considered it... you should give it a moment's thought.

I also think that given the third party would have to pick Survivor over Traitor, that if there is a Survivor, they would prefer to win with Town. That may be naive, but it is my opinion.

However, because a Survivor's wincon is to BE ALIVE, and not to have a certain faction end up winning... I agree with ashes assessment of the situation in regards to claiming, because it helps Town. However, if me, Ash, or EFHW are a survivor... they don't really care if it helps town right now. So I don't think we will get a claim whether or not there is a Survivor.


@ Ashes - not trying to knock your plan, just pointing a thought out.

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1164 on: June 23, 2019, 09:55:15 pm »

Alright, the day 2 reread was not as helpful as day 1. The one thing it did was made me less sure that the Hood is all town, and made me think that if there's non-town in it it's most likely EFHW, and she might be third party, not mafia. Notes below.

After everything, I feel like it confirmed most of my reads from day 1. Here's where I am now:

Scum
gkrieg
e
pingpongsam

Traitor
MiX

Survivor-Neighbor
EFHW

Town
joth
Glooble
ash
DatSwan
pubby

pps continues to be the scumread I'm least sure of. If I'm wrong about him, there's either scum in the neighborhood or it's Glooble. But I really doubt it's Glooble.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1165 on: June 23, 2019, 09:56:06 pm »

day 2 reread notes (skip if you want)

MiX's #556 is interesting, and gives more evidence toward him being the traitor. Glooble suggests that ADK is the scum kill and Eddie is the neighborhood kill, and MiX says it's obvious it's the other way around.

#576 is pubby's seventh post of the game and guess what he does? if you guessed "votes for me and doesn't meaningfully contribute", you get 1000 obvious points

a lot of day 2 so far is neighborhood claiming discussion and it's not particularly enlightening. I am townreading ash and Swan pretty hard, which makes me feel good about things.

e pops in at #627 to express a townread on MiX, who had been getting a lot of heat from me and ash. could be partner-y.

pubby's seventh and eighth posts of the game are a nice break from the pattern. pubby expresses some suspicion on MiX. doesn't vote though. then answers a question posed to him directly.

#645 Swan starts the mcmc wagon. Not particularly scummy, seems like legitimately stumped town defaulting to a lurker, but worth noting.

#655 don't like e's vote for me. seems opportunistic and insincere. As does gkrieg jumping on it 3 posts later. And gkrieg's #659 (would lynch pubby, wouldn't lynch MiX) scans with my reads.

#685 is pubby's ninth post of the game, asking if anyone else finds ash and pps suspicious. I really think pubby's town.

As of #687, his 10th post of the game, he is starting to actually play mafia. So I'm going to stop noting every pubby post.

This is weird:

Good, now scum thinks I'm traitor which means I live another day. Or at least they don't know who the real traitor is, which means they can't protect them. But seriously I don't think there's a way for third-party traitor to signal.

Like, why specify third-party traitor there? Kind of a nonsequitor. MiX could be really pushing his luck here with his joke-claim/real-claim.

Ok, if MiX WAS claiming traitor, PPS's #703 could be a "message received"

Unvote

The whole traitor thing leaves a pretty towny impression on MiX. I think I am going to get a solid chance to reread and post up tomorrow since I can play the father’s day leave me alone for a while card.

MiX at #714 is the first person post-claim to express the idea that the hood is all town.

Is it possible scum killed silverspawn because they're scared of a mass claim? He was the big advocate for one... gkrieg at least came out strongly anti-claim.

there's an ash-silver fight that gets pretty heated, but feels town v town. I'm getting sleepy.

e's #868 could also be "message received"

Swan's #882 has an interesting omission. He presents two counterfactuals (EFHW is Town and EFHW is Scum) in the process of discussing why she might out the neighborhood. But leaves out "EFHW is Survivor". Why? Because he's the survivor?

Remember this case?

If mafia thinks the 5 v. 7 scenario is likely, then the "EFHW claims neighbor and tries to get ash or Swan lynched" theory makes a lot of sense. Because they need to ensure a mislynch, which means limiting the lynch candidates to a group that they know doesn't include the traitor. It also has the side effect of preventing the lynch from outing a power role, but if you think you can concievably win that night, who cares?

This was smart and is still possible. And EFHW's response to it is pretty scummy.

gkrieg's #1003 is yet another opportunistic scummy jump onto a town mislynch close to deadline. Honestly we should be lynching gkreig just based on his voting record.
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1166 on: June 23, 2019, 11:34:43 pm »

I agree that e, gkrieg and pps are the least towny players. ash is towny, but idk if I buy it. Those 4 are probably my lynch pool. joth is going the extra mile.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1167 on: June 24, 2019, 01:18:51 am »

Pretty much agree with joth here except his assumption that the neighborhood is all town. Switch me with EFHW and we are good
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1168 on: June 24, 2019, 02:02:41 am »

I agree that e, gkrieg and pps are the least towny players. ash is towny, but idk if I buy it. Those 4 are probably my lynch pool. joth is going the extra mile.
Thoughts on MiX?
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1169 on: June 24, 2019, 02:50:46 am »

I agree that e, gkrieg and pps are the least towny players. ash is towny, but idk if I buy it. Those 4 are probably my lynch pool. joth is going the extra mile.
Thoughts on MiX?
He's been kind of off. He doesn't feel like scum, but doesn't feel like town, so 3rd party is probably the best guess for him right now.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1170 on: June 24, 2019, 02:54:02 am »

If he's reporter, then I assume lynching him would be equivalent to a mislynch in terms of non-acum vs scum numbers. Do we know scum's wincon? I'll check.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1171 on: June 24, 2019, 03:00:31 am »

If he's reporter, then I assume lynching him would be equivalent to a mislynch in terms of non-acum vs scum numbers. Do we know scum's wincon? I'll check.
I couldn't find it. 

This isn't a blatant attempt for town cred.
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1172 on: June 24, 2019, 03:37:39 am »

Okay, as everyone has posted now, I think we can safely assume 3rd party chose Reporter.

No extra kills makes SK so highly unlikely that I’m just not considering it.
A Survivor would have claimed and won with scum by forcing a no lynch (survivor + traitor claim = 5 votes).
A second traitor would have claimed as in the survivor scenario.

The only issue I can see with this analysis is if the survivor prefers “trying to win with town” over “guaranteed win with mafia.”  In that case, it seems to me that claiming and stating as such would be a big boon to us.

Do folks agree that the survivor amongst EFHW, Datswan, and I should claim and pick a side?  Again, if they were against us, they would have already claimed anyway, so I see no downside (they can’t be killed at night so long as the other neighbors are alive) for anyone.

So I have this thing regarding the survivor claims and skum wins thing. I don't really know how to word it super well, but here it goes. Scenario:
Let's say you are a Skum player, and then a non-Skum player comes out today at this point and claims to be the Survivor.

From a skum players POV... I mean... they are gonna be suspicious right? I don't even know what exactly they could be suspicious about.

I am throwing around things in my head like "the claimed survivor could be a Traitor" but that would make no sense unless they somehow knew there were 2 Traitors, which can't happen... or like "A random VT could do it to just try to get Skum to out themselves" but then of course they could just do the same plan and if there IS a Survivor or a Traitor... skum would still win.

So all in all... I doubt at this point that skum would just all "raise their hands" if someone claimed Traitor or Survivor. IDK what I think they would do, but at a minimum I think they would hold one identity back.

Which leads me into the thought of the Survivor claiming.... If there is ever a point where a Survivor thought they were a 100% lock on a win with Skum -I imagine they would take it. This is for sure not a 100% lock. I am not going to speak of the defense that town could play, and neither should anyone else... but if you have not considered it... you should give it a moment's thought.

I also think that given the third party would have to pick Survivor over Traitor, that if there is a Survivor, they would prefer to win with Town. That may be naive, but it is my opinion.

However, because a Survivor's wincon is to BE ALIVE, and not to have a certain faction end up winning... I agree with ashes assessment of the situation in regards to claiming, because it helps Town. However, if me, Ash, or EFHW are a survivor... they don't really care if it helps town right now. So I don't think we will get a claim whether or not there is a Survivor.


@ Ashes - not trying to knock your plan, just pointing a thought out.

Thanks for the thoughtful response. I’m not sure about your “town defense” against a survivor plan, though. You don’t want to make it public, but if you don’t vocalize the threat, not sure it works.

For example, if we say “we will lynch the survivor if they claim and go with scum...” it doesn’t work unless scum participates. I mean, maybe they do since not voting is just giving themselves away, but at that point it is a full scum claim away from just forcing survivor to win with them.

I don’t see any other “defense” against them, given we have no other real power.

A non-claimed survivor or the reporter are our only hopes, not considering a claimed town-only SS style survivor, which I doubt would exist, so I think we just go with that and hope for the best?

I for one would love to see a VT claim traitor to see if it works, by the way.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1173 on: June 24, 2019, 03:39:06 am »

Joth’s efforts basically make him town for me at this point, so I trust his reads, whether correct or not, to be honest.

I think MiX is the wild card that’s messing with my reads the most.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1174 on: June 24, 2019, 06:01:15 am »

What if all the "message recieved" posts that joth was talking about is actually scum thinking I'm traitor and acknowledging as such? Think about it, if traitor doesn't know scum, then I can't signal more than "I am traitor" (if I did know scum I could namedrop them in a very obvious way or something).

Joth’s efforts basically make him town for me at this point, so I trust his reads, whether correct or not, to be honest.

I'm basically here right now, but I don't know who's scummier: gkrieg or e. Does anyone have a preference?
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