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[faust]

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silverspawn has been killed! They were Surveillance Capitalism, the Vanilla Townie!

Day 3 begins!

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (10): Glooble, MiX, DatSwan, jotheonah, pingpongsam, EFHW, 2.71828....., ashersky, gkrieg13, pubby

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends on June 28, 2019, 10:10:00 am.

Thread unlocked!

[Glooble]

Well, the bad news is my theory was completely wrong.

The good news is we're not dead.

[jotheonah]

So the game is still going. That might mean there's only four scum. Or it might mean there are five, but the faust is accounting for the possibility of mafia and traitor voting for each other because of imperfect knowledge.

Either way, I'm kinda glad silver's gone because it's going to make for a very informative re-read. I was really expecting to come into today with the same WIFOM I was facing yesterday, but it looks like it's going to be a different WIFOM.

[jotheonah]

I'll do a re-read over the weekend.

[Glooble]

I want to apologize to everyone for that hammer. I shouldn't have dropped it. My only defense is I panicked.

[MiX]

I want to apologize to everyone for that hammer. I shouldn't have dropped it. My only defense is I panicked.

I love that hammer. Mcmc was super towny after D1 and it's a disgrace that we couldn't use it. Also we were between 2 town.

Scum killed ss because he's not third-party. In this glorious day we have a scum majority (since no SK).

We need a flawless town game from here on: it's offically worse than LyLo. I really wish I was scum.

Glooble's scum because everyone defended him and he feels guilt from a great hammer.

Vote: Glooble, can't bold just in case scum piles.

[Glooble]

Narcissistic as this sounds, I think a big part of why they killed silverspawn was to frame me. And to throw off any townies trying to predict their kill.

[ashersky]

So the game is still going. That might mean there's only four scum. Or it might mean there are five, but the faust is accounting for the possibility of mafia and traitor voting for each other because of imperfect knowledge.

Either way, I'm kinda glad silver's gone because it's going to make for a very informative re-read. I was really expecting to come into today with the same WIFOM I was facing yesterday, but it looks like it's going to be a different WIFOM.

Aren’t we guaranteed to be at only 4 scum?  If third party chose mafia, it’s 5v5 so town is endgamed. Town can’t lynch anyone without a scum vote, so game over.

It’s bleak, but there’s still a chance.

[Glooble]

Narcissistic as this sounds, I think a big part of why they killed silverspawn was to frame me. And to throw off any townies trying to predict their kill.

Actually never mind, this doesn't make any sense. Scum!Glooble just doesn't kill silverspawn. If I were on the scum team, they'd keep silverspawn alive so I could build on my case from yesterday and get him lynched.

[pubby]

joth and ash are obviously scum can we please lynch them already.

[MiX]

So the game is still going. That might mean there's only four scum. Or it might mean there are five, but the faust is accounting for the possibility of mafia and traitor voting for each other because of imperfect knowledge.

Either way, I'm kinda glad silver's gone because it's going to make for a very informative re-read. I was really expecting to come into today with the same WIFOM I was facing yesterday, but it looks like it's going to be a different WIFOM.

Aren’t we guaranteed to be at only 4 scum?  If third party chose mafia, it’s 5v5 so town is endgamed. Town can’t lynch anyone without a scum vote, so game over.

It’s bleak, but there’s still a chance.

Does this mean there's a reporter? Can town even win here? We need to lynch 4 scum in a row.

[jotheonah]

So the game is still going. That might mean there's only four scum. Or it might mean there are five, but the faust is accounting for the possibility of mafia and traitor voting for each other because of imperfect knowledge.

Either way, I'm kinda glad silver's gone because it's going to make for a very informative re-read. I was really expecting to come into today with the same WIFOM I was facing yesterday, but it looks like it's going to be a different WIFOM.

Aren’t we guaranteed to be at only 4 scum?  If third party chose mafia, it’s 5v5 so town is endgamed. Town can’t lynch anyone without a scum vote, so game over.

It’s bleak, but there’s still a chance.

I don't want to explain my thought process because that could be bad, but in this setup I'm not sure 5v5=endgamed. And I think we should stop talking about this.

[jotheonah]

joth and ash are obviously scum can we please lynch them already.

pubby's contributions continue to be as helpful as they are verbose

[jotheonah]

So the game is still going. That might mean there's only four scum. Or it might mean there are five, but the faust is accounting for the possibility of mafia and traitor voting for each other because of imperfect knowledge.

Either way, I'm kinda glad silver's gone because it's going to make for a very informative re-read. I was really expecting to come into today with the same WIFOM I was facing yesterday, but it looks like it's going to be a different WIFOM.

Aren’t we guaranteed to be at only 4 scum?  If third party chose mafia, it’s 5v5 so town is endgamed. Town can’t lynch anyone without a scum vote, so game over.

It’s bleak, but there’s still a chance.

Does this mean there's a reporter? Can town even win here? We need to lynch 4 scum in a row.

On the other hand, we have a 40% chance of hitting scum if we just throw a dart, and we have two new town flips and 45 pages of mafia to analyze. So I think there's reason for optimism!

[jotheonah]

actually, with a max of 1 scum in the neighborhood and now only 7 living players not in the neighborhood, we have either a 3/7 or a 4/7 chance of hitting scum if we lynch outside the neighborhood. so today I'm feeling a lot better about DatSwan's math that I was arguing with him about yesterday.

OTOH silver was the main advocate for lynching in the neighborhood and they killed him, so either scum is really worried about us lynching in the neighborhood, or they want us to think they are because there's no scum in the neighborhood. So ... that's not that helpful.

[jotheonah]

With 4 scum

Lynching randomly = 40% chance of hitting scum
Lynching randomly in neighborhood = either 0% or 33% chance of hitting scum
Lynching randomly outside the neighborhood = either 43% or 57% chance of hitting scum

With 5 scum

Lynching randomly = 50% chance of hitting scum
Lynching randomly in neighborhood = either 0% or 33% chance of hitting scum
Lynching randomly outside the neighborhood = either 57% or 71% chance of hitting scum

So there's literally no universe in which lynching in the neighborhood today makes sense from a purely mathematic standpoint.

[MiX]

So the game is still going. That might mean there's only four scum. Or it might mean there are five, but the faust is accounting for the possibility of mafia and traitor voting for each other because of imperfect knowledge.

Either way, I'm kinda glad silver's gone because it's going to make for a very informative re-read. I was really expecting to come into today with the same WIFOM I was facing yesterday, but it looks like it's going to be a different WIFOM.

Aren’t we guaranteed to be at only 4 scum?  If third party chose mafia, it’s 5v5 so town is endgamed. Town can’t lynch anyone without a scum vote, so game over.

It’s bleak, but there’s still a chance.

I don't want to explain my thought process because that could be bad, but in this setup I'm not sure 5v5=endgamed. And I think we should stop talking about this.

This is correct, I hate that this is correct, and there is exactly one scenario where this is right and it involves scum misplay (however, the misplay's due to lack of information, so it's fair that said misplay happens).

joth and ash are obviously scum can we please lynch them already.

pubby's contributions continue to be as helpful as they are verbose

pubby's scum that cultivated a bad town meta and is reaping it this game.

actually, with a max of 1 scum in the neighborhood and now only 7 living players not in the neighborhood, we have either a 3/7 or a 4/7 chance of hitting scum if we lynch outside the neighborhood. so today I'm feeling a lot better about DatSwan's math that I was arguing with him about yesterday.

The math was already really good, you were just blind before. Anyway, welcome to the club.

OTOH silver was the main advocate for lynching in the neighborhood and they killed him, so either scum is really worried about us lynching in the neighborhood, or they want us to think they are because there's no scum in the neighborhood. So ... that's not that helpful.

ss claimed non-third-party. That would be enough for me to think they're not third party. I assume it would also be enough for scum.

On the other hand, we have a 40% chance of hitting scum if we just throw a dart, and we have two new town flips and 45 pages of mafia to analyze. So I think there's reason for optimism!

If we get a reporter claim we can PoE everything (and say how much of a mistake it was to pick reporter, a traitor would've won by now), without one we have basically lost. So, can they claim? Pretty please? Worst case scenario we get a conflict.

So there's literally no universe in which lynching in the neighborhood today makes sense from a purely mathematic standpoint.

Never was, even yesterday.

[EFHW]

That's funny, I was thinking maybe you chose reporter. You seemed so hopeless Day 2.

[EFHW]

Reporter is only one result better than Even Night Tracker, and the tracker would be town-aligned. But having tracker results doesn't guarantee POE. Why are you focused on that in particular?

[MiX]

Reporter is only one result better than Even Night Tracker, and the tracker would be town-aligned. But having tracker results doesn't guarantee POE. Why are you focused on that in particular?

There's no other possible third-party that allows us to win. Which means we know it exists. That's all, I trust them to know what they're doing so they can reveal whenever.

That's funny, I was thinking maybe you chose reporter. You seemed so hopeless Day 2.

Just no good reads. And we could've lost if the third-party had chosen...pretty much any other role. So yeah I think I was justified.

[Glooble]

Reporter is only one result better than Even Night Tracker, and the tracker would be town-aligned. But having tracker results doesn't guarantee POE. Why are you focused on that in particular?

There's no other possible third-party that allows us to win. Which means we know it exists. That's all, I trust them to know what they're doing so they can reveal whenever.

That's not technically true. We could have a Serial Killer who was somehow blocked both nights.

[Glooble]

Or even got through one night but the scum kill was blocked that night.

[jotheonah]

Or keeps choosing the same targets as scum.

[EFHW]

Right, so why is MiX so sure there is only one possibility?

[jotheonah]

I would love it if we finally lynched MiX today. But I want to do a reread and see if a slam dunk case emerges.

But yeah, MiX continues to say things and jump to conclusions that are just a little off.