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Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 154871 times)

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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #925 on: June 18, 2019, 11:07:41 am »

Why are we not talking about the fact that, if we're in a 5-scum situation, we literally need every town player to vote as a block to hit scum without bussing? Conversely, scum only needs two townies to be on a wagon on town together before they can all jump on it. And if they picked daychat, then 3/5 of them can coordinate a quick hammer. Geeze, this setup is rough. I don't think I've been fully comprehending what a rough spot we're in. And if we mislynch today, we could be at 5 town-5 scum tomorrow, so we might be in MyLo right now.

And then it hit him: that one post MiX made about the setup D1 made sense. And it was important. And why did I get town this game. And how can third-party traitor coordinate? Why are we in a terrible position? Why are we lynching inside the neighbor when we have much better odds outside? Why is Glooble town? Why is pubby town? Why is mcmc not dead yet?

Vote: mcmc
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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #926 on: June 18, 2019, 11:10:21 am »

Why are we not talking about the fact that, if we're in a 5-scum situation, we literally need every town player to vote as a block to hit scum without bussing? Conversely, scum only needs two townies to be on a wagon on town together before they can all jump on it. And if they picked daychat, then 3/5 of them can coordinate a quick hammer. Geeze, this setup is rough. I don't think I've been fully comprehending what a rough spot we're in. And if we mislynch today, we could be at 5 town-5 scum tomorrow, so we might be in MyLo right now.

Yet I was somehow scummy for bringing this up D1
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #927 on: June 18, 2019, 11:14:16 am »

Why are we not talking about the fact that, if we're in a 5-scum situation, we literally need every town player to vote as a block to hit scum without bussing? Conversely, scum only needs two townies to be on a wagon on town together before they can all jump on it. And if they picked daychat, then 3/5 of them can coordinate a quick hammer. Geeze, this setup is rough. I don't think I've been fully comprehending what a rough spot we're in. And if we mislynch today, we could be at 5 town-5 scum tomorrow, so we might be in MyLo right now.

Yet I was somehow scummy for bringing this up D1


Not to all of us... but yeah let's maybe look at some of the players who kept saying "setup talk is bad" without any nuance. I'll note just from memory that one of those was silverspawn.
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #928 on: June 18, 2019, 11:15:34 am »

Why are we not talking about the fact that, if we're in a 5-scum situation, we literally need every town player to vote as a block to hit scum without bussing? Conversely, scum only needs two townies to be on a wagon on town together before they can all jump on it. And if they picked daychat, then 3/5 of them can coordinate a quick hammer. Geeze, this setup is rough. I don't think I've been fully comprehending what a rough spot we're in. And if we mislynch today, we could be at 5 town-5 scum tomorrow, so we might be in MyLo right now.

It's been mentioned.  No one seems worried.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #929 on: June 18, 2019, 11:18:21 am »

I'm worried! especially at T-23 hours.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #930 on: June 18, 2019, 11:30:38 am »

vote: gkrieg this is the kind of setup comment that can't possibly be good for town

This was in response to gkrieg's assertion that scum could theoretically win night 1. I questioned it here:

vote: gkrieg this is the kind of setup comment that can't possibly be good for town


Sorry, but why not? What exactly is wrong with making sure town is aware of how much or little time we might have, and how much leeway there is for making mistakes? I understand the underlying reason for not discussing the setup, but this seems like an exception to me. It's quite likely I'm missing something though. So if you can tell me why you think this particular line of questioning is anti-town I'd love to hear it.

That being said, if there's some reason why even explaining that is anti-town then please do not explain and I will abide by the consensus.

And silver never responded to me.

Ash and DatSwan then come in saying setup talk isn't bad per se and clarifying what specific types of setup talk are bad. Town points for both.

It seems to me like silverspawn was trying to shut down discussion that would actually have been very helpful for town, and when I asked him why he just kind of ignored me. Then day 2 he pushes for a mass claim (which as ash points out, could allow scum to avoid the PGO, which is one of the few ways town could survive another night in thew 5 v 7 scenario) then he really, really wants to lynch inside the neighborhood (which prevents the lynch from hitting the traitor, another way town could buy themselves an extra day.) And he excludes EFHW from the lynch pool.

vote: silverspawn

This is where we want to be if we're lynching off-wagon.

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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #931 on: June 18, 2019, 01:08:32 pm »

In the interest of consolidating around a lynch in the next 23 hours, vote: silverspawn

And ok, apparently people have been talking about this but at a level that I just sort of filtered out because it seemed like boring mathy setup talk, so I guess that's on me.

I hate to be the one to say it but, if we don't have broad consensus, is there any value in no lynch here? If we're at 7-5 now, that guarantees we don't lose tonight, and gives us a slightly smaller pool to choose from tomorrow and slightly more information.
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #932 on: June 18, 2019, 01:13:09 pm »

thinking math arguments are lazy is mostly just a symptom of being overconfident in one's ability to read people and/or misunderstanding how updating on evidence works

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #933 on: June 18, 2019, 01:20:16 pm »

vote: gkrieg this is the kind of setup comment that can't possibly be good for town

This was in response to gkrieg's assertion that scum could theoretically win night 1. I questioned it here:

vote: gkrieg this is the kind of setup comment that can't possibly be good for town


Sorry, but why not? What exactly is wrong with making sure town is aware of how much or little time we might have, and how much leeway there is for making mistakes? I understand the underlying reason for not discussing the setup, but this seems like an exception to me. It's quite likely I'm missing something though. So if you can tell me why you think this particular line of questioning is anti-town I'd love to hear it.

That being said, if there's some reason why even explaining that is anti-town then please do not explain and I will abide by the consensus.

And silver never responded to me.

Ash and DatSwan then come in saying setup talk isn't bad per se and clarifying what specific types of setup talk are bad. Town points for both.

It seems to me like silverspawn was trying to shut down discussion that would actually have been very helpful for town, and when I asked him why he just kind of ignored me. Then day 2 he pushes for a mass claim (which as ash points out, could allow scum to avoid the PGO, which is one of the few ways town could survive another night in thew 5 v 7 scenario) then he really, really wants to lynch inside the neighborhood (which prevents the lynch from hitting the traitor, another way town could buy themselves an extra day.) And he excludes EFHW from the lynch pool.

The reason I ignored you is that I concluded that setup discussion day 1 was anti town, and if I engage in a discussion about why that is, that's most likely going to lead to setup discussion (because then I have to explain why it's anti town).

I did not think particularly hard about why it's anti town. What I quickly realized was that there was no way we would ever do anything special based on the setup on day 1. Claiming on day 1 is bad, neighborhood discussion is bad, etc. All setup discussion that is helpful for town on day 1 is equally helpful on day 2. (Please either find a counterexample or acknowledge that there was no reason to discuss the setup on day 1.) Lots of setup discussion, like neighborhood claims, are only helpful on day 2. And as you can observe, I wasn't at all opposed to doing setup stuff on day 2. In fact I proposed the massclaim – which we should do.

Quote
which as ash points out, could allow scum to avoid the PGO
I was proposing a VT / non-VT claim. If scum avoids the PGO it means they're not targeting a non-VT, which means there is no downside to claiming, which means claiming was trivially correct.

Quote
And he excludes EFHW from the lynch pool.

What kind of complaint even is that? There's a player I'm townreading and therefore I'm scummy?

silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #934 on: June 18, 2019, 01:21:39 pm »

I remember now how it feels to get upset about crappy cases.

Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #935 on: June 18, 2019, 01:27:51 pm »

That specific comment from gkrieg, the one you voted for him over, was a setup comment that was helpful for day 1 though. Since the worst-case scenario for town was predicated on the actions of town players (mainly the PGO if we have one, but also really any player who might theoretically target another player D1) knowing about that scenario allowed those players to make informed decisions about whether to use their shots night 1. I did not see that possibility until ash pointed it out (hence my argument with gkrieg.)
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #936 on: June 18, 2019, 01:28:29 pm »

Assuming that there is 4 scum total and one in the neighborhood –which is the best case for lynching in-neighborhood – it is indeed true that the prior chance to hit scum when lynching inside is slightly worse than that of hitting scum when lynching outside, from my PoV. There are 12 players left, 3 in the neighborhood, 9 outside, 8 of them aren't me. So outside it's 3/8 and inside it's 1/3 = 3/9, which is lower. The reason why I want to lynch inside anway is threefold

a) most people have been pushing for a lynch outside, which is a sign that scum is inside

b) I strongly townread EFHW and townread DatSwan which makes for excellent PoE.

c) This is the most important point: if we lynch scum in the neighborhood, we create 2 ICs. If we lynch scum outside the neighborhood, we create 0 ICs. Creating 2 ICs is super awesome. If scum targets them, great, they're not targeting PRs. If scum does not target them, great, we have 2 ICs.

The fact that we're in a tough spot should be an argument to do high risk play.

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #937 on: June 18, 2019, 01:29:36 pm »

thinking math arguments are lazy is mostly just a symptom of being overconfident in one's ability to read people and/or misunderstanding how updating on evidence works

Arguments that rely primarily or exclusively on math are lazy.
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #938 on: June 18, 2019, 01:31:27 pm »

That specific comment from gkrieg, the one you voted for him over so early that it would be asinine to take it seriously was a setup comment that was helpful for day 1 though. Since the worst-case scenario for town was predicated on the actions of town players (mainly the PGO if we have one, but also really any player who might theoretically target another player D1) knowing about that scenario allowed those players to make informed decisions about whether to use their shots night 1. I did not see that possibility until ash pointed it out (hence my argument with gkrieg.)

Aside from my red edit, sure, that makes sense. I didn't think that far when I made the reply.

silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #939 on: June 18, 2019, 01:33:44 pm »

thinking math arguments are lazy is mostly just a symptom of being overconfident in one's ability to read people and/or misunderstanding how updating on evidence works

Arguments that rely primarily or exclusively on math are lazy.

I mean, you can call them lazy if you want, but if you trust reads – which we know are extremely unreliable – over strong math evidence, then you're just playing bad. That is a fact. If something has like 4:1 odds then the correct play is to throw your reads out the window.

In this case, the math only gives fairly mild evidence so it doesn't apply, but in past games it has, and afaik there was only one example of the math being wrong.

Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #940 on: June 18, 2019, 01:35:18 pm »

That specific comment from gkrieg, the one you voted for him over so early that it would be asinine to take it seriously was a setup comment that was helpful for day 1 though. Since the worst-case scenario for town was predicated on the actions of town players (mainly the PGO if we have one, but also really any player who might theoretically target another player D1) knowing about that scenario allowed those players to make informed decisions about whether to use their shots night 1. I did not see that possibility until ash pointed it out (hence my argument with gkrieg.)

Aside from my red edit, sure, that makes sense. I didn't think that far when I made the reply.

So you're acknowledging that the comment that you yourself said "Couldn't possibly be good for town" as actually good for town?


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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #941 on: June 18, 2019, 01:36:42 pm »

I'm curious as to why you're townreading DatSwan but scumreading ash? Just because on the whole they read very similar to me.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #942 on: June 18, 2019, 01:37:09 pm »

Assuming that there is 4 scum total and one in the neighborhood –which is the best case for lynching in-neighborhood – it is indeed true that the prior chance to hit scum when lynching inside is slightly worse than that of hitting scum when lynching outside, from my PoV. There are 12 players left, 3 in the neighborhood, 9 outside, 8 of them aren't me. So outside it's 3/8 and inside it's 1/3 = 3/9, which is lower. The reason why I want to lynch inside anway is threefold

a) most people have been pushing for a lynch outside, which is a sign that scum is inside

b) I strongly townread EFHW and townread DatSwan which makes for excellent PoE.

c) This is the most important point: if we lynch scum in the neighborhood, we create 2 ICs. If we lynch scum outside the neighborhood, we create 0 ICs. Creating 2 ICs is super awesome. If scum targets them, great, they're not targeting PRs. If scum does not target them, great, we have 2 ICs.

The fact that we're in a tough spot should be an argument to do high risk play.

But we don't really make 2 ICs, we probably make 1 IC with the other being dead. There is also a chance that scum is not in the neighborhood, which would mean that the higher chances of you hitting scum outside the neighborhood combined with there being a chance that there are 4 scum outside the neighborhood makes it a higher chance we hit scum outside the neighborhood.

I also don't have a strong scum read inside the neighborhood, which points me to thinking there might not be scum in the neighborhood.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #943 on: June 18, 2019, 01:47:02 pm »

I've said all of this already in smaller pieces, but I feel like I need to lay it all out.

I think there's scum in the neighborhood. I think it's EFHW, and I think one of her partners is silverspawn.

I think the reason she outed the neighborhood was so her partner could push for a lynch in the neighborhood and she would look towny for having outed them. Why does scum do this? Because they don't know who the traitor is, and they absolutely need to not lynch the traitor if they want to win today.

What could keep them from winning other than accidentally getting the traitor lynched? Having their kill stopped. A PR/ not PR claim, as silverspawn suggested, lets them 1. avoid the PGO, and 2. have much better POE if they have a roleblocker (to block the rolestopper, the only other role that could prevent their victory.)
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #944 on: June 18, 2019, 02:02:32 pm »

Not in hood: Glooble/pubby/mcmc/gkrieg/pps/ss/e/joth/(MiX)

Not lynching today: Glooble/gkrieg

Nully I guess: pps/joth/e (got townier I think)

Scummy: mcmc/ss/pubby?


I'm looking at lynching ss or mcmc today, I think. Reads today have been terrible with me scumreading Glooble all day for things...well...that his town self does. Sadly it's true, what I was scumreading him for is normal Glooble and the rest's town Glooble. I don't like it but it's true. I wish Glooble had a different meta because I keep finding them scummy when they're town.

I'll sheep pretty much any case. Feeling somewhat useless today. How long do we have to deadline?
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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #945 on: June 18, 2019, 02:04:27 pm »

I've said all of this already in smaller pieces, but I feel like I need to lay it all out.

I think there's scum in the neighborhood. I think it's EFHW, and I think one of her partners is silverspawn.

I think the reason she outed the neighborhood was so her partner could push for a lynch in the neighborhood and she would look towny for having outed them. Why does scum do this? Because they don't know who the traitor is, and they absolutely need to not lynch the traitor if they want to win today.

What could keep them from winning other than accidentally getting the traitor lynched? Having their kill stopped. A PR/ not PR claim, as silverspawn suggested, lets them 1. avoid the PGO, and 2. have much better POE if they have a roleblocker (to block the rolestopper, the only other role that could prevent their victory.)

This is possible. I think you mixed up who gets roleblocker and rolestopper?
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #946 on: June 18, 2019, 02:05:57 pm »

I did misread slightly. Mafia can have either, but it looks like town only gets roleblocker.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #947 on: June 18, 2019, 02:07:28 pm »

I've said all of this already in smaller pieces, but I feel like I need to lay it all out.

I think there's scum in the neighborhood. I think it's EFHW, and I think one of her partners is silverspawn.

I think the reason she outed the neighborhood was so her partner could push for a lynch in the neighborhood and she would look towny for having outed them. Why does scum do this? Because they don't know who the traitor is, and they absolutely need to not lynch the traitor if they want to win today.

What could keep them from winning other than accidentally getting the traitor lynched? Having their kill stopped. A PR/ not PR claim, as silverspawn suggested, lets them 1. avoid the PGO, and 2. have much better POE if they have a roleblocker (to block the rolestopper, the only other role that could prevent their victory.)

Thinking more about this. My problem with it is that I find EFHW very townie, and I feel like I normally read EFHW pretty well. She doesn't seem calculated like she does when she is scum.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #948 on: June 18, 2019, 02:07:54 pm »

unvote

I think the twins are town.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #949 on: June 18, 2019, 02:23:21 pm »

I've said all of this already in smaller pieces, but I feel like I need to lay it all out.

I think there's scum in the neighborhood. I think it's EFHW, and I think one of her partners is silverspawn.

I think the reason she outed the neighborhood was so her partner could push for a lynch in the neighborhood and she would look towny for having outed them. Why does scum do this? Because they don't know who the traitor is, and they absolutely need to not lynch the traitor if they want to win today.

What could keep them from winning other than accidentally getting the traitor lynched? Having their kill stopped. A PR/ not PR claim, as silverspawn suggested, lets them 1. avoid the PGO, and 2. have much better POE if they have a roleblocker (to block the rolestopper, the only other role that could prevent their victory.)

Thinking more about this. My problem with it is that I find EFHW very townie, and I feel like I normally read EFHW pretty well. She doesn't seem calculated like she does when she is scum.

Even if EFHW is town, scum!silverspawn could still have latched onto the "lynch in the hood" plan for the reasons I specified. In fact if the hood *is* all town, scum know this, and pushing for a hood lynch is an even better plan for them.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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