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[EFHW]

Accidental post

d. I thought the pr argument for not claiming was really weak and was surprised ash went along with it. They both seemed like they didn't want everyone to know they were there.

3. *doesn't mean ash is survivor

5. I said I didn't like the pr argument and waited 12 hours. No one argued. silver independently made the same argument. So I claimed. Given that silver was ready to identify all the prs and a couple people were agreeing, I think I am not alone in finding the "protect the pr's" argument weak.
6. I never said what I thought should happen. I said I thought town should have the information.
7. DatSwan has been quite aggressive towards me both before and after I said his name.
8. ash has been not gruff, not crotchety, polite and careful. Not his town meta.

[EFHW]

We start with EFHW basically 100% convinced scum is in the neighborhood, then pushes for a neighborhood claim, throws some shade on fellow neighbors, then eventually says that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.

In my mind, the logical continuation to this sentence is, "That's obviously town play."

fair enough.  I think the logical conclusion is that EFHW came into the day knowing she wanted to pin a fellow neighbor as scum, which is a scum attitude not a town attitude.

I had the plan to claim coming in. Not a surprise, since it was a reaction to events during N1. I wasn't sure what to do with the information I had and wanted town to have the information. I didn't have a desire to lynch a neighbor no matter what.

Where did I say choosing a neighbor is a mistake? I don't remember saying anything like this.

[Glooble]

1. I went into N1 with no particular scum read on anyone, really.

If you didn’t have any particular scum reads, why did you suggest vig-killing me and joth?

[Glooble]

We start with EFHW basically 100% convinced scum is in the neighborhood, then pushes for a neighborhood claim, throws some shade on fellow neighbors, then eventually says that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.

In my mind, the logical continuation to this sentence is, "That's obviously town play."

fair enough.  I think the logical conclusion is that EFHW came into the day knowing she wanted to pin a fellow neighbor as scum, which is a scum attitude not a town attitude.

I had the plan to claim coming in. Not a surprise, since it was a reaction to events during N1. I wasn't sure what to do with the information I had and wanted town to have the information. I didn't have a desire to lynch a neighbor no matter what.

Where did I say choosing a neighbor is a mistake? I don't remember saying anything like this.

I agree that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.  But I think people in this group would find the idea appealing.

[pingpongsam]

Damn. Why is everyone town this game? 

That happens to scum who know town is town and don’t want to implicate their partners.

[EFHW]

1. I went into N1 with no particular scum read on anyone, really.

If you didn’t have any particular scum reads, why did you suggest vig-killing me and joth?

I was looking for reactions. I had a weak scumread on you, and other people had been making noises about joth.

[EFHW]

Oh, choosing neighbor in the first place. I thought you meant lynching within the neighborhood.  Yes, I realized during the day today that scum neighbor was not as desirable as I had assumed at first.

[ashersky]

I find the stance that multiple players are taking on the "protecting PRs" argument perplexing.

The setup is lopsided against town if we think of this in a vanilla fashion (goons vs. VTs).  Scum has 4-5 players with no way of being outed (anymore).  Our literal only hope is for a PGO to pick one off for us, if we even got a PGO.  Even then, scum could have gotten a PGO too and use that against us.

Outed neighbors are VTs with a QT.  The argument can be made (and was made) that if scum is in the neighborhood, they already know this, so there's no harm in publicly announcing it.  The counterargument was made that there was also a chance scum is not in the neighborhood, and claiming provided them that information separately.

I don't really care so much about it being known that I, specifically, am a neighbor.  I am somewhat annoyed that in the case that both of you are town, EFHW unwittingly told scum information they wanted, either to not target us to PR hunt or to definitely target us to PGO dodge.

The phrase "protect the PRs" doesn't necessarily mean keep them from being killed.  It just means keep their identity as secret as possible, including by limiting POE.  Now, three scum know to hunt from a limited number of town players and who are safe to kill.  In a game that may possibly be decided tonight, that's a terrible, terrible thing.

So yes, I argued against claiming last night, and continue to argue that I was 10000000% correct.  It's all moot, though, because players will do what they want, based on their own win conditions and beliefs.

She was completely right about one thing -- the neighborhood may have felt like a place of camaraderie, but it definitely turned out not to be.

[jotheonah]

Well that felt extremely performative.

vote: ash

[Swowl]

@ EFHW - What was your opinion on my idea of how to select who carried out the vig? If I didn't bring it up, who would of you wanted to carry the vig?

[Swowl]

I see only upsides to bringing this out, if it hasn't been already:

The Hood randomized who would carry out the vig shot by all of us selecting "self targets Eddie" after Eddie was agreed upon.

We do not know who actually carried out the shot.

[Swowl]

vote: ash

I am absolutely incapable of reading ash but DatSwan is towny and EFHW is very towny and I want to lynch within the neighborhood.

in an alternate reality where you had to pick someone not in the Hood - who are like your top-whatever #?

Also, if we lynch ash, and ash flips town. What is your game plan? You think I am towny and EFHW is super towny... so then we lynch ash and its just like "oh well, I guess Swan was right, there is no skum?" or is it more "EFHW is townier than Swan, so Swan must be skum"?

There is a mild amount of sarcasm in the above question, I do not expect you as any alignment to actually answer it truthfully - but on the chance you are town just making a mistake, I would request you consider the repercussions put forth in the scenario where all of the hood is town.

[Swowl]

If we have five scum, we're in MYLO (not true MYLO, I guess since PRs might interfere with the NK, but we don't even know which PRs we have so... mislynch is bad.) But scum doesn't actually know if the third party picked traitor, right? So in terms of whether of not we're in MYLO, the only player who knows that for sure is the third-party player, right?

To this point it should be noted how much the "inside the hood" pool is being looked at.

From a Skum PoV, the options of the Hood Players are:

1) All Town - So, that is just an obv win for Skum, they would always want to push that case.

2) Town -  Town - Skum - Isolate the lynch pool to people inside the Hood. Assuming Traitor knows Mafia, that is 3 votes of the 6 needed to lynch that can be maneuvered against a Skum lynch. (only 3 of 6 bc if third party picked traitor it is stated they will not know skum)

2) Town - Town - Survivor - Another obv win for skum. They know they have 100% non-Skum lynch if the lynch is in the Hood. Add in the discourse it could supply for future mislynches, yeah that is a pretty good play.

3) Town - Skum - Survivor - Isolate the lynch pool to people inside the Hood. Assuming Traitor knows Mafia that is 3 votes of the 6 needed to lynch that can be maneuvered against a Skum lynch. Then add in a Survivor, who wouldn't actually care if Town got lynched at this point. Then add in if they are worried about a Survivor being in the hood they def don't want to shoot there if skum is in the Hood. so they want a 50-50 lynch to try to get rid of that player.


So alllll of that is skum pov. and I think it is true and I stand by it. I do not know for certain if there is skum or not in the hood. But I do know that the Hood is now known and it is not going anywhere.
So like...

Today(a) - we can lynch in the hood having 0% of finding skum, or we can lynch outside and have a minimum of a 57% of finding some form of skum.
Today(b) - we can lynch in the hood having a 33% of finding skum, or we can lynch outside and have a minimum of a 42% chance of finding some form of skum.

Day3(a) - we can continue to lynch in the hood having a 0% of finding skum, or we can lynch outside the hood having essentially the same odds of finding skum as the day before.
Day3(b) - we found skum Day 1, awesome... amazing... miracle of RnG.... We will wake up with 1 IC and be able to lynch the outside pool with a minimum of a 42% chance of skum.
Day3(c) - we didn't find skum Day 1. Do we take the 50-50 vs 0% chance on the Hood pool, or do we take the 42% vs  57% chance on the outside?


It all starts with the fact that even if skum is inside the Hood there is still only a 33% chance of hitting skum. And honestly, from that point forward... we are kind of screwed if we dont find skum. So, for the love of whatever... why do we want to take a 0%-33% leading to a 0%-50% chance, rather than taking a 42%-57% chance right the hell now? We DO NOT KNOW skum is in the Hood, but we sure as hell know that skum is OUTSIDE the Hood. I seriously just don't even get the push back on this.

[Swowl]

Also, it doesn't even matter what the third party player knows.

1) They are Traitor - So skum, so it doesn't matter.

2) Survivor - This is the swing day based on numbers, they will do whatever is best. so it doesn't matter.

3) Researcher - This one I guess matters. I have not checked, but assuming that Neighbors don't count as a PR they would probably want to push outside the pool.

4) SK - They just want to live, so it doesn't matter. They will say whatever suits them at this point.


If we get a Third Party flip, it matters. Right now, it is a distraction.

[Swowl]

PPS. GK, Pubby - want to chime in at all?

[silverspawn]

Where are you getting the 42% number from?

[ashersky]

I see only upsides to bringing this out, if it hasn't been already:

The Hood randomized who would carry out the vig shot by all of us selecting "self targets Eddie" after Eddie was agreed upon.

We do not know who actually carried out the shot.

You might have mentioned whose idea the randomization was. Objectively it was a towny idea, given we all equally shared the risk.

[pubby]

PPS. GK, Pubby - want to chime in at all?

I've mostly been skimming. EFHW seems super towny. e seems mildly suspicious and joth, ash, MiX are still solid lynch votes.

Not really following the neighborhood strategy. Like this for example:

1) All Town - So, that is just an obv win for Skum, they would always want to push that case.

Can someone explain this I'm confused.

[silverspawn]

Stop skimming and start reading.

[faust]

Vote Count 2.5

jotheonah (1): gkrieg13
mcmcsalot (1): DatSwan
ashersky (3): pubby, silverspawn, jtoheonah
EFHW (2): 2.71828....., Glooble

Not Voting (5): mcmcsalot, EFHW, ashersky, pingpongsam, MiX

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on June 19, 2019, 10:10:00 am, in about 29 hours.

[pingpongsam]

Null to scum on joth. Would vote. Will not vote inside the hood. Scum points for everyone supporting that.

[jotheonah]

The phony math in DatSwan’s argument is the implicit assumption that scum in the hood and no scum in the hood are equally likely. So when you say “why would we pick 33% OR 42% over 0% or whatever percent” that makes sense in a world where we have no idea whether there’s scum.

But that’s just lazy, just like all probability arguments are lazy, because we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not there’a scum in the hood, just like we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not someone is scum. We’re not choosing at random.

At the end of the day, I don’t care if we lynch inside or outside. We win by lynching the scummiest player. I still think that’s MiX, who made a blatant scumslip. But I also think that pst ost by Ash was an over the top appeal to emotion that screams scum. I mean look at that last sentence for crying out loud, it’s like a bad TV lawyer.

So both my top scumreads are consistent with a scum-in-the-hood theory. EFHW has her own reasons for thinking there’s scum in the hood and, again, they are better and more solid than brimless math.

[jotheonah]

*brainless math

[ashersky]

If it was an appeal to emotion, it clearly worked, since you seemed to have been moved by it.  Don't blame your emotional fickleness on me, though.

(Ironically, or not, your appeal to emotion attack is, in an of itself, an appeal to emotion attack.  So it's at least a well-played meta joke, which I can appreciate.)

(A second ironic point, of course, is joth's propensity for over-the-top emotional exasperation at the play of certain players, or the actions and words of others.  See basically any previous game with MiX for examples.)

[jotheonah]

Why are we not talking about the fact that, if we're in a 5-scum situation, we literally need every town player to vote as a block to hit scum without bussing? Conversely, scum only needs two townies to be on a wagon on town together before they can all jump on it. And if they picked daychat, then 3/5 of them can coordinate a quick hammer. Geeze, this setup is rough. I don't think I've been fully comprehending what a rough spot we're in. And if we mislynch today, we could be at 5 town-5 scum tomorrow, so we might be in MyLo right now.