If we have five scum, we're in MYLO (not true MYLO, I guess since PRs might interfere with the NK, but we don't even know which PRs we have so... mislynch is bad.) But scum doesn't actually know if the third party picked traitor, right? So in terms of whether of not we're in MYLO, the only player who knows that for sure is the third-party player, right?
To this point it should be noted how much the "inside the hood" pool is being looked at.
From a Skum PoV, the options of the Hood Players are:
1) All Town - So, that is just an obv win for Skum, they would always want to push that case.
2) Town - Town - Skum - Isolate the lynch pool to people inside the Hood. Assuming Traitor knows Mafia, that is 3 votes of the 6 needed to lynch that can be maneuvered against a Skum lynch. (only 3 of 6 bc if third party picked traitor it is stated they will not know skum)
2) Town - Town - Survivor - Another obv win for skum. They know they have 100% non-Skum lynch if the lynch is in the Hood. Add in the discourse it could supply for future mislynches, yeah that is a pretty good play.
3) Town - Skum - Survivor - Isolate the lynch pool to people inside the Hood. Assuming Traitor knows Mafia that is 3 votes of the 6 needed to lynch that can be maneuvered against a Skum lynch. Then add in a Survivor, who wouldn't actually care if Town got lynched at this point. Then add in if they are worried about a Survivor being in the hood they def don't want to shoot there if skum is in the Hood. so they want a 50-50 lynch to try to get rid of that player.
So alllll of that is skum pov. and I think it is true and I stand by it. I do not know for certain if there is skum or not in the hood. But I do know that the Hood is now known and it is not going anywhere.
So like...
Today(a) - we can lynch in the hood having 0% of finding skum, or we can lynch outside and have a minimum of a 57% of finding some form of skum.
Today(b) - we can lynch in the hood having a 33% of finding skum, or we can lynch outside and have a minimum of a 42% chance of finding some form of skum.
Day3(a) - we can continue to lynch in the hood having a 0% of finding skum, or we can lynch outside the hood having essentially the same odds of finding skum as the day before.
Day3(b) - we found skum Day 1, awesome... amazing... miracle of RnG.... We will wake up with 1 IC and be able to lynch the outside pool with a minimum of a 42% chance of skum.
Day3(c) - we didn't find skum Day 1. Do we take the 50-50 vs 0% chance on the Hood pool, or do we take the 42% vs 57% chance on the outside?
It all starts with the fact that even if skum is inside the Hood there is still only a 33% chance of hitting skum. And honestly, from that point forward... we are kind of screwed if we dont find skum. So, for the love of whatever... why do we want to take a 0%-33% leading to a 0%-50% chance, rather than taking a 42%-57% chance right the hell now? We DO NOT KNOW skum is in the Hood, but we sure as hell know that skum is OUTSIDE the Hood. I seriously just don't even get the push back on this.