Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 34 35 [36] 37 38 ... 62  All

Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 154840 times)

0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

2.71828.....

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • Shuffle iT Username: irrationalE
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #875 on: June 17, 2019, 03:13:19 pm »

MiX - I do not see him as part of the normal scum team at all.  Maybe he is a traitor, but if he is he doesn't know who they are.  MiX is playing like a team all of his own.  In a townie way though.  Knows what he is posting, knows people might find it scummy, but sticks to it because that is who he is.  I respect that.  And think it is townie.

Are we playing with the same MiX? Yikes.

I see a lot of similarities between my play and his, which makes me sympathetic to his cause.  And I feel like I understand where he is coming from, and it is a spot I have come from as town several times facing a lynch.  (I don't think he is in desperate trouble for a lynch though right now, is he?)
Logged
Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

2.71828.....

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • Shuffle iT Username: irrationalE
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #876 on: June 17, 2019, 03:14:57 pm »

EFHW because she claimed neighbor.
Logged
Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

2.71828.....

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • Shuffle iT Username: irrationalE
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #877 on: June 17, 2019, 03:15:33 pm »

EFHW because she claimed neighbor.

EFHW *next* because she claimed.   Words in my head vs. words I type.
Logged
Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

MiX

  • Navigator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 77
  • Shuffle iT Username: MiX
  • It's me.
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #878 on: June 17, 2019, 03:16:17 pm »

Clearly a scum slip because scum!joth knows that there is scum in the neighborhood.

Hoping this is sarcasm. But yes, the theory hinges on there being scum in the neighborhood.
If you are that convinced that there is scum in the neighborhood, why haven't you said so?

I think you're misunderstanding me. I think what MiX did only makes sense in one scenario: MiX is scum and there's scum in the neighborhood. If there's not scum in the neighborhood, then I have no explanation for MiX's scumslip. So scum in the neighborhood follows from my case, not the other way around. Which makes it less relevant right now, because I think we lynch MiX first. If he flips scum, then we start looking for his partner in the neighborhood?

But also, I've said, or at least implied, several times that I think there's scum in the neighborhood based on everyone's reactions to the neighbor reveal and the claim plans. I can quote those posts if you like.

So you lynch me hoping that I flip scum so that the scumslip makes sense? Let's fast forward in time to D3 after I flip scum:

ss(?): Oh look, MiX was scum.

joth: See, this proves I was right about the scumslip! Let's lynch in the neighborhood!

And then town spends a bunch of time lynching in hood because in this scenario me and joth are obviously buddies and no scum's in hood. If I flip town:

ss(?): Oh look, MiX was town.

joth: See, lynching outside the hood was bad, just like I said! Let's lynch in the neighborgood!

And...you get my point.


Anyway, you're hoping to prove that the scumslip is correct after I flip, which just sounds wrong.

Here's one:

Apparently this was confusingly written, but TL;DR if there's scum in the neighborhood I'd expect some energy to be expended toward getting us to lynch outside the neighborhood, and in fact that is happening. More importantly, if there's no scum in the neighborhood I'd expect there to be more energy toward getting us to lynch in the neighborhood. Therefore, I think scum in the neighborhood is more likely.

From my perspective I see the complete opposite, because we're in opposing sides. So cleeeearly scum's NOT in neighborhood and you know that.

MiX - I do not see him as part of the normal scum team at all.  Maybe he is a traitor, but if he is he doesn't know who they are.  MiX is playing like a team all of his own.  In a townie way though.  Knows what he is posting, knows people might find it scummy, but sticks to it because that is who he is.  I respect that.  And think it is townie.

Are we playing with the same MiX? Yikes.

Apparently he's playing with SK!MiX, which is understandable, given it might be the last one he's seen.

PPE a bunch. Unvote
Logged

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 5301
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #879 on: June 17, 2019, 03:18:38 pm »

Clearly a scum slip because scum!joth knows that there is scum in the neighborhood.

Hoping this is sarcasm. But yes, the theory hinges on there being scum in the neighborhood.

I think the module that was online when I wrote that didn't really run on concepts like sarcasm. It was more like a witty response that popped into my head and I posted it without thinking.

I think it's about much of a scum slip as the Mix thing. Probably a bit more.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 5301
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #880 on: June 17, 2019, 03:21:56 pm »

Apparently this was confusingly written, but TL;DR if there's scum in the neighborhood I'd expect some energy to be expended toward getting us to lynch outside the neighborhood, and in fact that is happening. More importantly, if there's no scum in the neighborhood I'd expect there to be more energy toward getting us to lynch in the neighborhood. Therefore, I think scum in the neighborhood is more likely

This is a good point, by the way.

jotheonah

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 989
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #881 on: June 17, 2019, 03:22:51 pm »

Let's fast forward in time to D3 after I flip scum

Surely you'll admit this is a scumslip, right? /s
Logged
"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

He/him

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #882 on: June 17, 2019, 03:25:06 pm »

To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today

No. That depends on the survivor. Some survivors don't just have winning as a goal, but would rather win with town.

So has everyone reached the "lynch outside the hood" scenario?

No no no. We lynch DatSwan or ash

Are you high? Even if you want to lynch inside the hood there is wayyyyyy more of a skum narrative for EFHW than either Ash or myself

Why does scum!EFHW out the neighborhood? I'm struggling to see the narrative there, but open to the possibility that I'm missing something obvious.

I am not saying that Skum!EFHW does it like every time... but look at it from the negative of Town!EFHW.

1) EFHW is Town - They out the hood. They did this because they think there is skum in the hood, so they are gonna want to lynch 1 of the other 2 players. Coolio. Except, EFHW knows the ratio right now (or as best they can) of Town:Skum.... So, she is essentially hinging the game on a a) Day 1 read that skum is in the Hood, followed by b) praying we get that skum player the first try, because c) even if we were to lynch once incorrectly.... we have no way of knowing if we still have a chance of finding skum in the hood at all still.


2) EFHW is Skum - They out the hood. They did this because of all the bad reasons listed in the "if EFHW is Town" scenario, as well as the working proven fact that it gives them town cred when it comes to "who is skummiest" in the Hood.


So yeah, not like proven cases by any means on alignment... but as it is only Day 2 I find it harder to believe that Town!EFHW would be risking the game on essentially a gut read, over this being a potential Skum!EFHW attempt to push a skum angle. And again... all of that factored in... I still would rather lynch outside.
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #883 on: June 17, 2019, 03:28:56 pm »

Apparently this was confusingly written, but TL;DR if there's scum in the neighborhood I'd expect some energy to be expended toward getting us to lynch outside the neighborhood, and in fact that is happening. More importantly, if there's no scum in the neighborhood I'd expect there to be more energy toward getting us to lynch in the neighborhood. Therefore, I think scum in the neighborhood is more likely

This is a good point, by the way.

It is a good point. Don't forget that the grain of salt that comes with it though - If this mindset is to be expected, then it is also expected to be planned before it happened. Just to say, if we think energy is not being pushed in the direction that makes sense, that is probably because it was discussed by skum prior to it happening (or hell they could even have day chat and being doing in stride).
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

jotheonah

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 989
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #884 on: June 17, 2019, 03:32:45 pm »

MiX - I do not see him as part of the normal scum team at all.  Maybe he is a traitor, but if he is he doesn't know who they are.  MiX is playing like a team all of his own.  In a townie way though.  Knows what he is posting, knows people might find it scummy, but sticks to it because that is who he is.  I respect that.  And think it is townie.

Are we playing with the same MiX? Yikes.

Well, you have some OMGUS going for you.  I have the independent perspective having lurked this entire game.  Doesn't make my perspective any better/worse than yours, just different.

You can believe this or not, but I don't care AT ALL that MiX is voting for/has voted for me. Has nothing to do with my read or case on him.
Logged
"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

He/him

2.71828.....

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • Shuffle iT Username: irrationalE
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #885 on: June 17, 2019, 03:33:13 pm »

So, I could see EFHW as scum.  Nothing much to say about her D1, but then D2 let's look at this string of posts:

It seems to me extremely likely that scum would have chosen the neighbor option. Does anyone have a narrative where they might not have?
Ok, I'm home for the day and I've decided to claim. I am in the neighborhood. No one has taken issue with my PR argument and there's no other reason to withhold this information from town. There are three of us. I'll hold off on saying who, or they can.
@MiX, what is your question? We had a consensus on the vig.

That answers it. Did you propose that idea or had it in mind before N1?

I started with Glooble and joth. One person was hesitant about Glooble and suggested MiX. I didn't want MiX and brought up Eddie. There was consensus from there. The third neighbor didn't suggest or object to anyone. The ease of the consensus made me worry that Eddie was town, but I decided that a scum neighbor could be uncomfortable objecting to a partner. I also couldn't change the target on my own and didn't know the motivations of the non-scum neighbor.

Both felt strongly that we shouldn't claim. I didn't say anything one way or the other.

The way things happened made me concerned that there was indeed scum in the neighborhood and that is why I claimed.
I'm not saying names yet because I want to hear from town about whether they think scum was there.

I had a really great theory that didn't pan out. I thought if there was a survivor in the neighborhood they could claim and if there was scum, too, they would claim. The two of them would vig me and then survivor would ally with mafia.
ashersky not coming forward after I claimed and after the pr argument was negated without protest makes me think he doesn't want it known that he is in the neighborhood,  either.
I agree that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.  But I think people in this group would find the idea appealing.
DatSwan,  you keep criticizing me for claiming, but in the qt analysis you are referencing, you said (paraphrasing here) that in the case of scum in neighborhood, claiming is good. I felt there was a good chance of one of you being scum. I don't have a town read on ash, either. He feels more careful than usual.

Also, protecting prs is usually a high priority, but the prs in this game don't seem worth the importance you are giving them.

I'm sorry if you felt betrayed.  I carefully didn't actually promise or agree to anything in the qt. Sharing a qt feels like comraderie, but with unknown alignments it can't really be that.


We start with EFHW basically 100% convinced scum is in the neighborhood, then pushes for a neighborhood claim, throws some shade on fellow neighbors, then eventually says that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.

It just feels like EFHW is scum in the neighborhood who thought that claiming first would give her the extra town cred to push through a lynch against a fellow neighbor.

So let's just go vote: EFHW

and see how things develop
Logged
Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

Glooble

  • Bishop
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 113
    • View Profile
    • Solutions to Problems
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #886 on: June 17, 2019, 03:48:02 pm »

e's making a lot of sense. So is Datswan.

I still think MiX is scummier, but that wagon's going nowhere so...

vote: EFHW
Logged

I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

He/ Him

Check out my podcast: www.stppodcast.com

Glooble

  • Bishop
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 113
    • View Profile
    • Solutions to Problems
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #887 on: June 17, 2019, 03:50:47 pm »

To elaborate, I went to reread EFHW after Datswan's post because I wanted to see if her behavior was consistent with the narrative he proposed and it really kinda was. Then I went back to now and saw e's post and I didn't really have anything to add.
Logged

I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

He/ Him

Check out my podcast: www.stppodcast.com

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 5301
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #888 on: June 17, 2019, 03:51:15 pm »

DatSwan ISO

– I hate the "could of" thing. Always have. Why are you doing this?  :'(
– Traitor is a shit role. Not knowing mafia is an advantage because then they are basically town. Traitor knows mafia is a disadvantage for scum. I'm assuming scum didn't choose that option, so traitor doesn't know mafia, so they're impossible to find, so all traitor talk is useless. Seriously though traitor is such an awful role. /rant
E!

I don't think that operator is defined for integers, let alone rationals, let alone reals. But if it is, I'm interested to hear it.

I'll get to real points eventuallyell.

– I think DatSwan is town. Damn. Why is everyone town this game?  :(

This is kind of hilarious to me because I did all this on-the-side sponteneous low informed random stuff and DatSwan is trying to take it really seriously. But they do reach the correct conclusion, which is nice.

– I continue to think that DatSwan's ISO posts read very genuine, although I am aware that he does these a lot and probably has good practice in fabricating them as scum. But nonetheless, I'm going to give town points for now (until they flip scum in a game where I gave town points and I conclude that it's NAI).

There's too much, I'll do the rest later.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 5301
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #889 on: June 17, 2019, 03:53:22 pm »

We start with EFHW basically 100% convinced scum is in the neighborhood, then pushes for a neighborhood claim, throws some shade on fellow neighbors, then eventually says that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.

In my mind, the logical continuation to this sentence is, "That's obviously town play."

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 5301
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #890 on: June 17, 2019, 03:54:48 pm »

vote: ash

I am absolutely incapable of reading ash but DatSwan is towny and EFHW is very towny and I want to lynch within the neighborhood.

2.71828.....

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • Shuffle iT Username: irrationalE
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #891 on: June 17, 2019, 04:01:55 pm »

We start with EFHW basically 100% convinced scum is in the neighborhood, then pushes for a neighborhood claim, throws some shade on fellow neighbors, then eventually says that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.

In my mind, the logical continuation to this sentence is, "That's obviously town play."

fair enough.  I think the logical conclusion is that EFHW came into the day knowing she wanted to pin a fellow neighbor as scum, which is a scum attitude not a town attitude.
Logged
Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

2.71828.....

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • Shuffle iT Username: irrationalE
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #892 on: June 17, 2019, 04:02:32 pm »

vote: ash

I am absolutely incapable of reading ash but DatSwan is towny and EFHW is very towny and I want to lynch within the neighborhood.

I should iso the other neighbors.  I will start with Ash.
Logged
Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 5301
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #893 on: June 17, 2019, 04:03:43 pm »

I think it's just too chaotic to be scum play

Glooble

  • Bishop
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 113
    • View Profile
    • Solutions to Problems
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #894 on: June 17, 2019, 04:17:42 pm »

We start with EFHW basically 100% convinced scum is in the neighborhood, then pushes for a neighborhood claim, throws some shade on fellow neighbors, then eventually says that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.

In my mind, the logical continuation to this sentence is, "That's obviously town play."

fair enough.  I think the logical conclusion is that EFHW came into the day knowing she wanted to pin a fellow neighbor as scum, which is a scum attitude not a town attitude.

This is consistent with EFHWs behavior on Day 2...

but is it something scum would do, in this game, going into day 2? Or is it too much of a gambit for a scum team that is, objectively, in a pretty good position?
Logged

I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

He/ Him

Check out my podcast: www.stppodcast.com

Glooble

  • Bishop
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 113
    • View Profile
    • Solutions to Problems
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #895 on: June 17, 2019, 04:41:04 pm »

If we have five scum, we're in MYLO (not true MYLO, I guess since PRs might interfere with the NK, but we don't even know which PRs we have so... mislynch is bad.) But scum doesn't actually know if the third party picked traitor, right? So in terms of whether of not we're in MYLO, the only player who knows that for sure is the third-party player, right?
Logged

I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

He/ Him

Check out my podcast: www.stppodcast.com

2.71828.....

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • Shuffle iT Username: irrationalE
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #896 on: June 17, 2019, 04:50:13 pm »

As for me as a person, I probably do come off as a grouchy old veteran more often than necessary. 

I think Ashersky sums up his game pretty well with this statement.  I don't know that it makes him scum, but it definitely doesn't clear him.  I think EFHW is far scummier if we are comparing members of the neighborhood (not having read datswan yet), but definitely scummier than MiX or Glooble.
Logged
Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

Glooble

  • Bishop
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 113
    • View Profile
    • Solutions to Problems
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #897 on: June 17, 2019, 04:50:39 pm »

If mafia thinks the 5 v. 7 scenario is likely, then the "EFHW claims neighbor and tries to get ash or Swan lynched" theory makes a lot of sense. Because they need to ensure a mislynch, which means limiting the lynch candidates to a group that they know doesn't include the traitor. It also has the side effect of preventing the lynch from outing a power role, but if you think you can concievably win that night, who cares?
Logged

I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

He/ Him

Check out my podcast: www.stppodcast.com

jotheonah

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 989
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #898 on: June 17, 2019, 05:00:18 pm »

If mafia thinks the 5 v. 7 scenario is likely, then the "EFHW claims neighbor and tries to get ash or Swan lynched" theory makes a lot of sense. Because they need to ensure a mislynch, which means limiting the lynch candidates to a group that they know doesn't include the traitor. It also has the side effect of preventing the lynch from outing a power role, but if you think you can conceivably win that night, who cares?

This is also much more feasible if scum has daychat and can plan and coordinate on the fly.
Logged
"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

He/him

EFHW

  • Spy
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 81
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #899 on: June 17, 2019, 06:20:44 pm »

I think I laid my train of thought out pretty straightforwardly. Here it is laid out in one place, with some extra I didn't say before:

1. I went into N1 with no particular scum read on anyone, really.
2. I felt both ash and DatSwan behaved scummily in the qt.
     a. They both advocated against claiming, saying that claiming was scummy.
     b. They both expressed town reads of the rest of us.
     c. DatSwan didn't suggest or object to anyone.

3. I was of the personal opinion that scum would choose neighbor and that ash would absolutely choose survivor neighbor as third party. Doesn't mean that ash is neighbor, of course, but I really did expect there to be scum in the neighborhood.
4. I have recently misread DatSwan as scummy when he was town. So I wanted to be cautious and see if other town people thought what he did sounded scummy, before they knew who did it.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 34 35 [36] 37 38 ... 62  All
 

Page created in 0.066 seconds with 20 queries.