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Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 154838 times)

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #850 on: June 17, 2019, 02:15:03 pm »

I did read it, and I thought not mentioning what the second person (ash) thought of joth meant it was joth.

What?
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #851 on: June 17, 2019, 02:15:13 pm »

The degree to which that scum slip is not a scum slip is quite enormous.

And why is that? Tell me how town makes that mistake.

They don't read EFHW's post properly.

So MiX is town who is sincerely interested in guessing who's in the neighborhood, but doesn't take the time to carefully read the ONE post that contains clues to who's in the neighborhood? You must not think much of MiX's play abilities.

All I can say is that this could easily happen to me.

...because you're also scum?
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #852 on: June 17, 2019, 02:15:34 pm »

I read that sentence like four times and I have no idea what it means.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #853 on: June 17, 2019, 02:16:51 pm »

I read that sentence like four times and I have no idea what it means.

It means he sincerely thought that the neighborhood was sitting around talking about which one of themselves to target with their consensus-based vigs. Which is patently ridiculous.
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #854 on: June 17, 2019, 02:17:57 pm »

The fact that MiX doesn't claim not to have missed it makes me more willing to consider that it was a scum slip.

The problem is though that it only makes a little bit more sense as scum than town, so it's fairly weak evidence. But I might concede that it's non-negligible.

silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #855 on: June 17, 2019, 02:18:59 pm »

This defensiveness is, however.

No.

For me this said "it's not scummy because third-pary/PRs want to defend themselves too", otherwise you would've written much more.

That is very creative.

MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #856 on: June 17, 2019, 02:19:11 pm »

Yes, this is true, this is obviously true, and if you ever try to say that scum!me would say what I said above hoping people would forget Glooble's the one that questioned it then you have the polar opposite of what I do as scum. Or anyone, really, who would do this on purpose?

So what WOULD scum!you post in response to Glooble catching your mistake? I think what you posted is a decent attempt at covering.

Scum!me would acknowledge that it's a good reason to scumread me because mistakes = scummy. Town!me knows better.

I did read it, and I thought not mentioning what the second person (ash) thought of joth meant it was joth.

What?

EFHW suggested Glooble and joth and the second person didn't want Glooble and suggested MiX. But what about joth? EFHW didn't talk about him again or what the hood thought of him. Thus I concluded the second person was joth. Get it now?

I read that sentence like four times and I have no idea what it means.

It means he sincerely thought that the neighborhood was sitting around talking about which one of themselves to target with their consensus-based vigs. Which is patently ridiculous.

There's 3 people in it, they can definitely overpower one of the neighbors.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #857 on: June 17, 2019, 02:22:38 pm »

Ok, I think I'm done going back and forth on this. Maybe other people who show up will see this my way.

As pubby would say, I don't see my vote moving again today.
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #858 on: June 17, 2019, 02:27:36 pm »

So, your case is that MiX didn't pay attention to my post about deciding who to target?

I'm confused by his comment that scum would know 4 people who couldn't be in the neighborhood. What 4?
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #859 on: June 17, 2019, 02:29:06 pm »

Was it MiX who made the "mafia knows traitor " mistake earlier?
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #860 on: June 17, 2019, 02:31:54 pm »

So, your case is that MiX didn't pay attention to my post about deciding who to target?

I'm confused by his comment that scum would know 4 people who couldn't be in the neighborhood. What 4?

I first counted traitor, and then I realized I could count myself instead! You know given I claimed to not be neighbor at the time.

Was it MiX who made the "mafia knows traitor " mistake earlier?

That was joth.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #861 on: June 17, 2019, 02:36:27 pm »

Ok, I think I'm done going back and forth on this. Maybe other people who show up will see this my way.

As pubby would say, I don't see my vote moving again today.

ok.  doing an iso of MiX then.

Just finished reading mcmc.  not much there, but more than me.
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #862 on: June 17, 2019, 02:38:47 pm »

Joth, your theory only works if there is also scum in the neighborhood.  If there isn't,  scum!MiX wouldn't know any more than the rest of you and would have paid attention to my post.
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #863 on: June 17, 2019, 02:40:39 pm »

Clearly a scum slip because scum!joth knows that there is scum in the neighborhood.

Swowl

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #864 on: June 17, 2019, 02:42:24 pm »

To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today

No. That depends on the survivor. Some survivors don't just have winning as a goal, but would rather win with town.

So has everyone reached the "lynch outside the hood" scenario?

No no no. We lynch DatSwan or ash

Are you high? Even if you want to lynch inside the hood there is wayyyyyy more of a skum narrative for EFHW than either Ash or myself
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #865 on: June 17, 2019, 02:45:44 pm »

To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today

No. That depends on the survivor. Some survivors don't just have winning as a goal, but would rather win with town.

So has everyone reached the "lynch outside the hood" scenario?

No no no. We lynch DatSwan or ash

Are you high? Even if you want to lynch inside the hood there is wayyyyyy more of a skum narrative for EFHW than either Ash or myself

Why does scum!EFHW out the neighborhood? I'm struggling to see the narrative there, but open to the possibility that I'm missing something obvious.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Check out my podcast: www.stppodcast.com

jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #866 on: June 17, 2019, 02:53:37 pm »

Clearly a scum slip because scum!joth knows that there is scum in the neighborhood.

Hoping this is sarcasm. But yes, the theory hinges on there being scum in the neighborhood.
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #867 on: June 17, 2019, 02:54:51 pm »

Clearly a scum slip because scum!joth knows that there is scum in the neighborhood.

Hoping this is sarcasm. But yes, the theory hinges on there being scum in the neighborhood.
If you are that convinced that there is scum in the neighborhood, why haven't you said so?
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #868 on: June 17, 2019, 03:01:42 pm »

MiX - I do not see him as part of the normal scum team at all.  Maybe he is a traitor, but if he is he doesn't know who they are.  MiX is playing like a team all of his own.  In a townie way though.  Knows what he is posting, knows people might find it scummy, but sticks to it because that is who he is.  I respect that.  And think it is townie.
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2.71828.....

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #869 on: June 17, 2019, 03:02:12 pm »

MiX thinks Glooble is scum.  On to them next.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #870 on: June 17, 2019, 03:02:53 pm »

Clearly a scum slip because scum!joth knows that there is scum in the neighborhood.

Hoping this is sarcasm. But yes, the theory hinges on there being scum in the neighborhood.
If you are that convinced that there is scum in the neighborhood, why haven't you said so?

I think you're misunderstanding me. I think what MiX did only makes sense in one scenario: MiX is scum and there's scum in the neighborhood. If there's not scum in the neighborhood, then I have no explanation for MiX's scumslip. So scum in the neighborhood follows from my case, not the other way around. Which makes it less relevant right now, because I think we lynch MiX first. If he flips scum, then we start looking for his partner in the neighborhood?

But also, I've said, or at least implied, several times that I think there's scum in the neighborhood based on everyone's reactions to the neighbor reveal and the claim plans. I can quote those posts if you like.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #871 on: June 17, 2019, 03:06:19 pm »

Here's one:

So it's EFHW/ash/Swan... most likely they're 3 town, since I don't think any of them would pick survivor. Of these 3...yes, I suppose Swan's the scummiest, but I would sooner lynch EFHW...which revealed this information at my request. I think we just outed 3 town. Thank you EFHW.

I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.

This is a scummy reaction to EFHW’s claim and reveal. Once again, MiX is trying to proactively derail a town plan that might put his partners. Who jumps to “they’re obviously all town” like that? Like, that fast. He doesn’t even consider there’s scum there.

vote: MiX

And then here's the other one:

Here's another way to think about it:

How bad is it for scum if they do have one person in the neighborhood and we lynch within the neighborhood?
How good is it for them if the neighborhood is all town and we lynch within the neighborhood?

I think if B were true we'd have someone strongly advocating for that, since it guarantees a waste of several lynches AND keeps the lynch from hitting the traitor in the event that mafia doesn't know who they are (the traitor can't be a neighbor, right?). I think if A were true we'd see someone strongly advocating for lynching outside the neighborhood, since even though 1/3 = 3/9 mathematically, in reality having six options for mislynch is very much preferably to having 2, especially when one of those two is EFHW, who everyone seems to be generally townreading.

Anyway, what we've seen is nobody, except maybe silver, pushing particularly hard for lynching in neighborhood. DatSwan, gkrieg, and MiX have all advocated somewhat strongly for lynching outside of it.

PPE: a whole bunch

Apparently this was confusingly written, but TL;DR if there's scum in the neighborhood I'd expect some energy to be expended toward getting us to lynch outside the neighborhood, and in fact that is happening. More importantly, if there's no scum in the neighborhood I'd expect there to be more energy toward getting us to lynch in the neighborhood. Therefore, I think scum in the neighborhood is more likely.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #872 on: June 17, 2019, 03:07:25 pm »

MiX - I do not see him as part of the normal scum team at all.  Maybe he is a traitor, but if he is he doesn't know who they are.  MiX is playing like a team all of his own.  In a townie way though.  Knows what he is posting, knows people might find it scummy, but sticks to it because that is who he is.  I respect that.  And think it is townie.

Are we playing with the same MiX? Yikes.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #873 on: June 17, 2019, 03:10:03 pm »

MiX - I do not see him as part of the normal scum team at all.  Maybe he is a traitor, but if he is he doesn't know who they are.  MiX is playing like a team all of his own.  In a townie way though.  Knows what he is posting, knows people might find it scummy, but sticks to it because that is who he is.  I respect that.  And think it is townie.

Are we playing with the same MiX? Yikes.

Well, you have some OMGUS going for you.  I have the independent perspective having lurked this entire game.  Doesn't make my perspective any better/worse than yours, just different.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #874 on: June 17, 2019, 03:11:43 pm »

Also, Glooble is town.

Or really helpful scum.

But I think town.

Everything they have done has been useful, pushing the game along, clarifying comments from other people.  Basically, they have had 95% positive impact, and I think they are town for it.  The 5% is in case I missed something not obvious.
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.
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