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Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 154962 times)

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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #800 on: June 17, 2019, 09:50:03 am »

Ok but, does scum actually ever do this? I feel like I am very susceptible to suspecting that a town person who is leading is scum... but I can’t recall ever actually seeing it. IRL, scum is almost always sitting back and playing reactively, since it’s so hard to know how town will react to a claiming plan.

Yes, I do it all the time.  At least, I used to.  So does gkrieg, so does faust, I'm sure a few others.


And furthermore, “claim pushing is scummy” isn’t an argument I’d expect from town!ash who is usually such a grounded realist when I suggest that scum is doing a crazy gambit. So that post really makes me want to vote: ash.

I still think that if there turns out to be scum in the neighborhood I want to lynch MiX next.

What are you talking about?  Grounded realist?  What?

I'm literally the scum doing the crazy gambit every game.  And claim pushing is scummy this game because it appears to be a negative utility move for town.  Even SS has agreed that claiming should be put off for now.  He basically backed off his plan when he didn't get enough traction.  That's also the move scum would pull there (as would town).

I'm honestly just confused by you here.  I'd say it was scummy if it made any sense, but it doesn't.  So I guess it's not?
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #801 on: June 17, 2019, 09:54:32 am »

Time for a popsquiz, which I would suggest for everyone.

Signup list order:

Townish:
glooble, pps, efhw, gkrieg

Nullish:
MiX, DatSwan, joth, 2.7

Scummish:
mcmc, pubby, ss

Upgrades from D1: MiX, Glooble
Downgrades from D1: DatSwan, mcmc, ss

Mcmc did not impress in his tiny return.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #802 on: June 17, 2019, 10:06:13 am »

I’m almost positive ash is town here. Giving reads and thoughtful reactions to plans while not getting too overly emotional about votes on him is not his scum persona at least.
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #803 on: June 17, 2019, 10:09:10 am »

Ash, can you say why Glooble got an upgrade?

I’m almost positive ash is town here. Giving reads and thoughtful reactions to plans while not getting too overly emotional about votes on him is not his scum persona at least.

What have you done this game? I forgot.
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #804 on: June 17, 2019, 10:14:55 am »

I'm getting a stronger and stronger feeling that SS is scum leading this game to a scum win.

A plan to out all town PRs with tons of holes in it pointed out by multiple players which he continually ignores.
Blatant mischaracterizations of some players' statements.
A seemingly misleading push to tie the PR outing plan to lynching within the neighborhood.

Remember, scum already knows everything.  Scum can plan accordingly, or even make the plan.  SS is posting like he already knows everything.

Ok but, does scum actually ever do this? I feel like I am very susceptible to suspecting that a town person who is leading is scum... but I can’t recall ever actually seeing it. IRL, scum is almost always sitting back and playing reactively, since it’s so hard to know how town will react to a claiming plan.

There is one infamous game of faust leading and everyone following. But I can't remember any other example.

jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #805 on: June 17, 2019, 10:16:48 am »

Ok but, does scum actually ever do this? I feel like I am very susceptible to suspecting that a town person who is leading is scum... but I can’t recall ever actually seeing it. IRL, scum is almost always sitting back and playing reactively, since it’s so hard to know how town will react to a claiming plan.

Yes, I do it all the time.  At least, I used to.  So does gkrieg, so does faust, I'm sure a few others.


And furthermore, “claim pushing is scummy” isn’t an argument I’d expect from town!ash who is usually such a grounded realist when I suggest that scum is doing a crazy gambit. So that post really makes me want to vote: ash.

I still think that if there turns out to be scum in the neighborhood I want to lynch MiX next.

What are you talking about?  Grounded realist?  What?

I'm literally the scum doing the crazy gambit every game.  And claim pushing is scummy this game because it appears to be a negative utility move for town.  Even SS has agreed that claiming should be put off for now.  He basically backed off his plan when he didn't get enough traction.  That's also the move scum would pull there (as would town).

I'm honestly just confused by you here.  I'd say it was scummy if it made any sense, but it doesn't.  So I guess it's not?

Humor me. Show me some games where scum actually came out trying to lead town and pushing for a mass claim. Bonus points if it actually worked.

It’s possible I’m remembering things wrong, but my sense of you Ash is a person who has been around the block and knows the difference between scummy things and things actual scum does. But maybe I’m the one whose sense of this is wrong.
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #806 on: June 17, 2019, 10:19:37 am »

Even ss has agreed that claiming should be put off for now.  He basically backed off his plan when he didn't get enough traction.  That's also the move scum would pull there (as would town).

I'm honestly just confused by you here.  I'd say it was scummy if it made any sense, but it doesn't.  So I guess it's not?

This interpretation is totally unnecessarily sinister, and it's also completely false. I'm backing off the plan because it's not pro town to insisting on a claim if it won't be done. That would just be irrational.

silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #807 on: June 17, 2019, 10:21:52 am »

EBWOP I guess actually said that town would do it too, so nvm.

ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #808 on: June 17, 2019, 10:23:13 am »

Even ss has agreed that claiming should be put off for now.  He basically backed off his plan when he didn't get enough traction.  That's also the move scum would pull there (as would town).

I'm honestly just confused by you here.  I'd say it was scummy if it made any sense, but it doesn't.  So I guess it's not?

This interpretation is totally unnecessarily sinister, and it's also completely false. I'm backing off the plan because it's not pro town to insisting on a claim if it won't be done. That would just be irrational.

I didn't mean for it to be sinister.  I just meant to show how it could fit a scum narrative, which also clearly including the possibility for a town narrative.

The second line is about joth, which I assume you knew?
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #809 on: June 17, 2019, 10:24:45 am »

The second line is about joth, which I assume you knew?

Yeah, sorry. I got mildly upset and then didn't read (and didn't quote) your post properly.

ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #810 on: June 17, 2019, 10:30:23 am »

Ok but, does scum actually ever do this? I feel like I am very susceptible to suspecting that a town person who is leading is scum... but I can’t recall ever actually seeing it. IRL, scum is almost always sitting back and playing reactively, since it’s so hard to know how town will react to a claiming plan.

Yes, I do it all the time.  At least, I used to.  So does gkrieg, so does faust, I'm sure a few others.


And furthermore, “claim pushing is scummy” isn’t an argument I’d expect from town!ash who is usually such a grounded realist when I suggest that scum is doing a crazy gambit. So that post really makes me want to vote: ash.

I still think that if there turns out to be scum in the neighborhood I want to lynch MiX next.

What are you talking about?  Grounded realist?  What?

I'm literally the scum doing the crazy gambit every game.  And claim pushing is scummy this game because it appears to be a negative utility move for town.  Even SS has agreed that claiming should be put off for now.  He basically backed off his plan when he didn't get enough traction.  That's also the move scum would pull there (as would town).

I'm honestly just confused by you here.  I'd say it was scummy if it made any sense, but it doesn't.  So I guess it's not?

Humor me. Show me some games where scum actually came out trying to lead town and pushing for a mass claim. Bonus points if it actually worked.

It’s possible I’m remembering things wrong, but my sense of you Ash is a person who has been around the block and knows the difference between scummy things and things actual scum does. But maybe I’m the one whose sense of this is wrong.

Your question (I thought) was if scum ever came out and lead town actively, which I strongly believe happens often.  As to what extent leading is happening is probably a subjective opinion, there may not be consensus on which games are where, but I'm guessing many of my scum performances, especially MVP ones, would have examples of folks just doing what I suggest.

As for me as a person, I probably do come off as a grouchy old veteran more often than necessary.  Maybe we just disagree on this point regarding what scum would do vs. what is a scummy thing.  Regarding SS and his claiming plan, I was providing a possible scum narrative there.  I don't think there's much in the way of scum reads on him, which may or may not be dangerous.  (My gut actually has me feeling like he might be third party, given that one post by him.)  He definitely could be town, in the same way that EFHW could be scum outing the hood (for some reason) or town doing what she felt is best (which is where I fall).  I'm just keeping a wary eye out, as scum!SS has burned me before.
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #811 on: June 17, 2019, 10:31:48 am »

Ash, can you say why Glooble got an upgrade?

Recent posts felt towny.  Glooble and I aren't exactly the best match (thinking back on our first few games together), but I think we've sort of figured each other out at this point.  Glooble may disagree?

I think I felt like his reactions were genuine, which was enough to bump him up.

No popsquiz from you? (or anyone else?)
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #812 on: June 17, 2019, 10:33:21 am »

Here's another way to think about it:

How bad is it for scum if they do have one person in the neighborhood and we lynch within the neighborhood?
How good is it for them if the neighborhood is all town and we lynch within the neighborhood?

I think if B were true we'd have someone strongly advocating for that, since it guarantees a waste of several lynches AND keeps the lynch from hitting the traitor in the event that mafia doesn't know who they are (the traitor can't be a neighbor, right?). I think if A were true we'd see someone strongly advocating for lynching outside the neighborhood, since even though 1/3 = 3/9 mathematically, in reality having six options for mislynch is very much preferably to having 2, especially when one of those two is EFHW, who everyone seems to be generally townreading.

Anyway, what we've seen is nobody, except maybe silver, pushing particularly hard for lynching in neighborhood. DatSwan, gkrieg, and MiX have all advocated somewhat strongly for lynching outside of it.

PPE: a whole bunch
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #813 on: June 17, 2019, 10:38:03 am »

Also unvote. Did a little rereading and sort of unconvinced myself about ash vs silver.

I don't have a lot of reads I feel solid about this game, but for fun:

Townish:
glooble, 2.7, efhw

IDKish*:
ash, silverspawn, gkrieg

Nullish:
pps

Scummish:
MiX, pubby, DatSwan

*IDKish means I sometimes scumread and sometimes townread, whereas nullish means I'm gettin nothin either way.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #814 on: June 17, 2019, 10:38:41 am »

My initial thought when SS suggested the claiming plan was that he might be the tracker reporter, but that seemed a little on-the-nose. I feel like if he had that role silver would be more subtle. But it's worth pointing out the possibility- if someone wants all the PRs to claim, they might just be the role that needs all the PRs dead.

PPE 1: I think I have a much better handle on ash then I did in Imperial Radch mafia, and I'm mostly townreading him this game.

I can do a popsquiz in a bit.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #815 on: June 17, 2019, 10:48:49 am »

Townish:
joth, EFHW, ashersky, gkrieg

nullish (because scummy and towny stuff cancels out):
DatSwan, silverspawn, pubby

nullish (because of lurking/ lack of data):
pps, mcmcsalot, e

scummish:
MiX

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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #816 on: June 17, 2019, 10:48:55 am »

If I were third party, I'd probably claim, I think. In any case, I'm not; I'm town.

MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #817 on: June 17, 2019, 10:50:14 am »

I want to know where the term "popsquiz" comes from. Anyway:

Town:
ss, ash, joth, Swan

Towny:
pps, EFHW

Null:
gkrieg, pubby

Scummy:
mcmc, e?

Scum:
Glooble, e?


Scum tend to fall in the "towny" part, and that's also where I have Glooble, but I'm convinced it's because they're scum. Less so for pps and not at all for EFHW because she's a recent addition to it.

If I were third party, I'd probably claim, I think. In any case, I'm not; I'm town.

Are you a VT?
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #818 on: June 17, 2019, 11:03:48 am »


Are you a VT?

What possible reason could you have for asking that?
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #819 on: June 17, 2019, 11:04:22 am »

I want to know where the term "popsquiz" comes from.

A player named "popsofctown" who was in the very first games on f.ds
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #820 on: June 17, 2019, 11:09:08 am »


Are you a VT?

What possible reason could you have for asking that?

more importantly, how would answering that possibly be a good idea?

silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #821 on: June 17, 2019, 11:13:10 am »

prod: e

pingpongsam

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #822 on: June 17, 2019, 11:17:12 am »

I'm basically null on everyone.

If I were really separating buckets I'd put the neighborhood as town for now : EFHW, Ash, and Datswan (of these I feel best about Ash and EFHW in that order)

I think MiX is probstown but still null.

Everyone else is a solid null except for SS who is like a polarizing form of null (joth's IDKish) where I've gotten strong tells from both leanings.

I could be inclined to sheep MiX and vote Glooble. I want to do a deep reread of someone in particular. I don't think the neighbors a good pick (although the fact they are neighbors is helpful in a reread). This sucks because I'd like it to be better than a dart throw but I may just throw a dart after all.
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pingpongsam

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #823 on: June 17, 2019, 11:18:34 am »

Dart landed on jotheonah; bbl with something.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #824 on: June 17, 2019, 11:28:36 am »

I don't think the neighbors a good pick (although the fact they are neighbors is helpful in a reread).

Just as a note when you're rereading I don't believe the neighbors knew each other's identities until night 1.

faust is this correct?
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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