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Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 11139 times)

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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #750 on: June 16, 2019, 03:59:58 pm »

Reasonably certain these are correct. Anyone want to verify?

Unfortunately, this makes the case less strong and I'm now no longer certain I want to lynch between ash and DatSwan. Probably still like a PR / non PR claim.
ash and DatSwan said they didn't want to claim because it narrows down who has prs. They have been quite definite about that. You have the opposite plan, which is to completely reveal who has prs. But you don't find them scummy for basing such strong resistance on an argument you feel is unimportant?
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #751 on: June 16, 2019, 04:15:17 pm »

In short, no. I don't actually think the PR thing is unimportant. I think the benefits of claims outweigh the downsides, but not by so much that it's hard for me to believe that someone could come to the opposite conclusion.
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #752 on: June 16, 2019, 05:24:19 pm »

Ok, I think we should figure out who is in favor or VT / non-VT claim.

*raises hand*

Mix and Glooble have already kind of agreed to it, but obv you can withdraw that if you change your mind.

It's okay, but I think scum can heavily manipulate it. I think it only helps if we get a counterclaim eventually, which is harder to get if we claim.

Also, your probabilities look alright enough, and they certainly point to a high chance of scum!neighbor. But if we're lynching there...I think I want to lynch EFHW. Which is sad because I was just trying to not nullread them...but they're the scummiest of the 3.

I didn't get to look further into Glooble, by the way, I'll try to do it today but don't expect anything, I'm somewhat tired.
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I donít think even MiX is townreading MiX.

silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #753 on: June 16, 2019, 06:04:06 pm »

EFHW? No way. Is that just based on day 1?
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #754 on: June 16, 2019, 06:07:24 pm »

EFHW? No way. Is that just based on day 1?

It's based on my bigger townreads on ash and Swan. I would probably lynch Swan instead given everyone else's reads, but I don't think it's implausible for scum!EFHW to do this. Then again, I haven't played with such, only read past games, and what I remember is that she was good at it, so maybe I'm just scared.
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #755 on: June 16, 2019, 06:14:01 pm »

How confident are in your ash read, and how experience do you have playing with him that you base this on?
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #756 on: June 16, 2019, 06:34:48 pm »

Didnít your probabilities post tell scum how many PRs they should fake claim?

Is there a way to hide the useful PRs in this plan of yours?  Like, if you are a PGO, donít claim?  To me, nullifying the usefulness of any (or all, depending) PRs is not worth an easily manipulated claim scheme that doesnít help me narrow down much of anything, considering I have my reads and the PR probabilities donít change them.

If Iím incorrect, correct me. But if thereís some magic number of claims that renders your plan useless, I assume scum can figure it out. Heck, if SS is scum, he already did and had this plan hatched from the beginning to pull off an epic scum rolefish. (Which, if true, bravo for the audacity and glory.)
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #757 on: June 16, 2019, 06:44:33 pm »

if we only claim non-VT, then scum doesn't know who the useful PRs are, and if they kill a PR at random, they risk dying.

Quote
But if thereís some magic number of claims that renders your plan useless, I assume scum can figure it out.

Yeah, but there isn't. There's some behavior that's optimal for scum, but nothing that will magically prevent all utility we can get from this.

I'm pretty sure massclaiming is the right play, if anything the question is whether we do it today or tomorrow.
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #758 on: June 16, 2019, 06:46:33 pm »

Didnít your probabilities post tell scum how many PRs they should fake claim?

Is there a way to hide the useful PRs in this plan of yours?  Like, if you are a PGO, donít claim?  To me, nullifying the usefulness of any (or all, depending) PRs is not worth an easily manipulated claim scheme that doesnít help me narrow down much of anything, considering I have my reads and the PR probabilities donít change them.

If Iím incorrect, correct me. But if thereís some magic number of claims that renders your plan useless, I assume scum can figure it out. Heck, if SS is scum, he already did and had this plan hatched from the beginning to pull off an epic scum rolefish. (Which, if true, bravo for the audacity and glory.)

I don't think it requires a lot of thought to think that pushing a scum narrative with a lot of town PRs requires less town PR claims and vice versa. I don't think the probabilities did anything else for scum, it sure said how the odds of there being scum are higher than 50%, which is something I didn't think was true.

PGO should definitely claim, and I think even roleblocker should, but overall the plan's very flimsy. I'm fully against it now.

How confident are in your ash read, and how experience do you have playing with him that you base this on?

Not well enough, I think I only played one game with them as non-scum and they were scum? I thought "acting like ash" was towny, it turned out to be scummy. So now I think ash acting like ash is scummy. I don't remember seeing a lot (well, too much) of this in this game, so I think they're town. Besides, the plan talk sounds flat out risky as scum!ash, given they said the same thing when they were scum. Otherwise, no, I don't have much confidence in my read.

PPE: I can't see what information we gain, scum has so much freedom to claim anything they want.
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I donít think even MiX is townreading MiX.

silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #759 on: June 16, 2019, 07:01:43 pm »

What are you two talking about? The PGO should definitely not claim. They become useless if they claim. We want scum to not-know who is the PGO so that they either risk losing a member if they kill someone or don't even try.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #760 on: June 16, 2019, 07:05:55 pm »

What are you two talking about? The PGO should definitely not claim. They become useless if they claim. We want scum to not-know who is the PGO so that they either risk losing a member if they kill someone or don't even try.


I think they're saying "PGO should claim" as in "in a VT/non-VT claim, PGO should honestly claim not VT" not as in "PGO should full-claim"
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #761 on: June 16, 2019, 07:18:34 pm »

ok, then yes. But every non-VT should claim non-VT. The massclaim becomes useless very quickly if we have PRs claiming VT. Pretty sure that's worse than not having any claim.
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #762 on: June 16, 2019, 07:20:02 pm »

Depending on scum numbers, they win just by killing VTs.  They just dodge all PRs, negating the utility of our only possible killing role. Depending on the number of PR claims, that could really lead us into ruin.
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #763 on: June 16, 2019, 07:23:56 pm »

Best case scenario we are 4 v 8, right? 

Mislynch + NK means 4 v 6, takes 4 to lynch. Traitor claims, lynch claimed PR. No kill, game over.

PRs are pretty key, whomever is left. Plan is bad.
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #764 on: June 16, 2019, 07:25:41 pm »

Survivor probably claims and joins scum and completely ensures the scum win, if they exist.

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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #765 on: June 16, 2019, 07:27:37 pm »

What does third party claim in your plan if they are survivor?
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Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #766 on: June 16, 2019, 07:39:10 pm »

I don't see the benefit in the plan.

We're only hearing from half of town. Hopefully we'll hear from more people after the weekend.
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DatSwan

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #767 on: June 16, 2019, 08:03:57 pm »

OK well that is a lot of relevant stuff since I last checked in... I am just going to respond to stuff as I go in this post...


He's the 9ne who didn't suggest or object to anyone  and who was the strongest against claiming.

The other one was ashersky,  who was also against claiming.

- I stand by my point about not claiming. I very much still believe you have made a mistake. Or your skum. But I am somehow still wanting to believe mistake.
- To further that, I laid out my reasoning in pretty damn detailed view in the QT. EFHW could of spoke up there. If they were suspicious of me, I see how they would not want to do that.


ashersky not coming forward after I claimed and after the pr argument was negated without protest makes me think he doesn't want it known that he is in the neighborhood,  either.

- The PR argument is negated because you claimed.
- I didn't want to be known either, you claimed for both of me and Ash. Why is it less likely he wanted to be known than me?


ashersky not coming forward after I claimed and after the pr argument was negated without protest makes me think he doesn't want it known that he is in the neighborhood,  either.

Well, no, I didnít. I didnít want it known you were in it either.  At this point, town neighborsí best role is to draw NKs away from remaining town PRs. Now, I canít, and since I was townreading you, you canít either. I think your claim was a mistake, but a town-reasoning-driven one.

I also noted Datswan didnít suggest any targets. I was enjoying watching their posts as if they werenít neighbor and I wondered where it would go.

- Annoyingly agree with Ashes.
- In regards to me posting like I would in a private QT, please check any Skum, hood, or any form of shared QT I have had in the last year or so... I am very pro information sharing and when I have a shared thread I just pretty much use it instead of my private QT.
- Also, By the time I checked into the thread the people that had been brought up were Mix, Joth, Glooble. I responded to MiX because I knew how I felt at the time, and then by the time I had a chance to go and read Glooble and Joth... one of you brought up Eddie, who I was way more on board with than the other options presented. So, it is correct that I did not bring up anyone as a potential target, but to be fair, by the time I got a chance to respond you two had already elected like 40+% of the alive field that were not the 3 of us.


Short probabilities post. Let's assume no 3d party neighbor. What is the probability p of having two additional town members? It depends on how many PRs scum picked. If it's ...

... 4, then p = 28.6%  (6 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 3, then p = 14.3%  (3 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 2, then p = 04.8%  (1 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 1, then p = 00.0%
I suck at the maths. What is the probability of skum being there is a Survivor? * kept reading found the post you already have made with this math*


I would suspect that scum probably did choose 4 PRs, because if you're going to make one of your scum buddies a neighbor, then you want a lot of town neighbors. In that world, there are 4 roles chosen and one of them is a neighbor. The probbiality of that is 57.1%. The most likely case. This sounds like a reasonable guess.
- I agree that skum would choose 4 but for different reasons. From a skum pov I feel like the must have role is traitor knows mafia followed by skum PGO. That's 2 there. From there on out, they could come up with a ton of good combos which they would have to weight against the potential downside of the roles Town would get in return. This opens up a ton of options for roles that would not, by themselves, seem viable options. Example would be, Traitor Knows Skum + Skum PGO, then they decide to put Skum in the Hood.... VT cop is fantastic for them there. They are gonna be able to remove 2-3 players from the PR list just because of the Hood, then they get the lynches, kills, and VT checks. With a Hood of 3 players, they would start Day 2 with all town flips (which I assume anyone assumes of any faction to the start of Day 2), with 10 players alive - 3/10 are skum, 3/10 are Hood, 1/10 is either VT or not VT... Assuming they get a VT result, they would literally know exactly who all the Town PRs are start of Day 2. <-- That is kind of a specific example, but the point is that if you look at the roles, I do not think skum would be too worked about taking 4 roles because the potential combos they can put together likely would outweigh what Town gets in return.




I guess, in short, it seems if there is a strong likelihood of a neighbor goon then lynching a neighbor is a decent option and a fantastic limit for reread analysis.

- As I mentioned before, I agree with this concept. My current reads though having me doubting it's likelihood of being the case right now {i.e. it would mean EFHW is skum, which I am not sold on).
- Additionally, we could counter this potential play by using the negative. What are our potential play outs?

1) We lynch a Town!Hood Player - Skum kills outside the Hood N2 obv, most likely killing a Town player. Not to even factor in any potential of there being an extra Traitor or PGO/SK kills that may happen... that still starts us Day 3 with 4 Mafia Aligned, 1 Third Party, and 3 Town Aligned. Because 1/4 Mafia aligned would be Traitor, I am guessing the game would not just end... but that is like a super shitty situation. Then we move onto what... Pray there is Skum in the Hood and try there again, or take essentially the same odds on out of Hood Skum the next day?
2) We lynch a Skum!Hood Player - Obviously a huge upside. If there is skum, and we get them, we instantly get 2 ICs. 1 of the ICs will die at night, followed by the other... but that is a whole Day 3 with 1x IC and 2 Nights of kills from skum that leave Town PRs alive. *while that sounds awesome, it is also my priority case on why I do not think EFHW is Skum - that right there is a hell of a gamble for Skum to take at this point*
3) Alternatively, we could lynch outside of the Hood. Not saying we leave the Hood as ICs, Not saying we don't eventually come to think the Hood is IC's... we could just not look there for right now. There is a 33.33% chance of finding skum in the Hood (if skum is in the Hood). If there is Skum in the Hood, there is a 28.6% chance of finding skum outside of the Hood. However, if the Hood is all Town, there is a 42.8% chance of finding skum outside of the Hood and a 0% chance of finding Skum inside the Hood. Because we do not know which is true, I think we should look outside of the Hood for today's lynch.


Reasonably certain these are correct. Anyone want to verify?

Unfortunately, this makes the case less strong and I'm now no longer certain I want to lynch between ash and DatSwan. Probably still like a PR / non PR claim.
ash and DatSwan said they didn't want to claim because it narrows down who has prs. They have been quite definite about that. You have the opposite plan, which is to completely reveal who has prs. But you don't find them scummy for basing such strong resistance on an argument you feel is unimportant?
- Completely different. Or at least it is for me, I can't speak for Ash. I did not want it to be easier for skum to know who to select for kill targets based on the concept that there potentially is an all Town Hood. If there is an all Town Hood, you have told them who is in it. This limits their kill pool from 7 down to 4. Of those 4, 1 of them are traitor. Of the remaining 3, 1-3 of them are town PRs. You have created a situation where claiming VT vs not VT has a very small liklihood of actually hurting Town. Although, tbh, I don't really see a huge upside of it either.


PPE: A lot
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DatSwan

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #768 on: June 16, 2019, 08:31:27 pm »

I don't see the benefit in the plan.

We're only hearing from half of town. Hopefully we'll hear from more people after the weekend.

The issue I have with this plan is how easily it can be manipulated by Skum. They know how many PRs are in play, but we do not. That makes the order of the claim very important. We have no IC. How do we choose an order? I guess we could do like sign up list or something like that but even then... what is the upside we hope for?
If there are only 3 Town PR rolls, skum will just claim to be PR, putting that player 1/4 in a CC situation if we choose that pool... which we wouldn't even have to do because there could actually be 4 Town Rolls (the same scales down if there are only 2 or 1 town rolls, and again... we don't know, but skum does). Unless there is literally only 1 Town Roll, skum would never choose to go all VT claim, as with 1 PR roll they could all claim VT and leave themselves 3-4/7 in the VT pool, but even with just two Town PRs it would put them at 3-5/6. They are both bad, but in the first option if skum is in the Hood it would have them at 2 Mafia and 1-2 Traitors , which is right on the break even line.

If we do the VT/Not VT claim Skum will almost assuredly have 1-2 of them claim to be a PR because  we as Town have no way of assigning a second claim order to try and safely catch skum in a lie, as well as they know how many roles exist so they will be able to use the situation to create the pools of the size they want. 
There is no downside to me pointing this out - it is the clear play. If there are 3+ Town PR Rolls then we will have to flip a coin on which pool to pick from, and then from there we will have between a 20%-33% chance in finding skum, based upon which pool we pick and how many roles there are. If there are less than 3 Town PR rolls, it is just a bad play. The math doesn't even matter based on the amount of maneuverability it allows skum.

We know at a minimum though that there are at least 2 skum and at least 1 Traitor (additionally, possibly another traitor and the potential SK) all in the NOT HOOD pool. If we get rid of the second traitor and the the SK options, that still leaves 3/7 chance of skum - which is 42.8%. We have a better chance right now of lynching skum focusing on the NOT HOOD lynch pool than we could realistically have of creating two pools based on VT vs not VT. So I do not see the point in claiming.

Ash - do you have any thoughts on this?
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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #769 on: June 16, 2019, 09:10:38 pm »

I donít support the plan to claim. I think knowing the people in the neighborhood is important, but I think we should lunch outside the neighborhood for today. Silvers point much earlier that lynching scum in the neighborhood creates ICs is not that great because we get one IC in the best case at this point. I think we have better odds outside the neighborhood even if scum is in the neighborhood?  I havenít been reading super closely so it is possible someone has already brought this up.
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #770 on: June 16, 2019, 10:06:10 pm »

DatSwan,  you keep criticizing me for claiming, but in the qt analysis you are referencing, you said (paraphrasing here) that in the case of scum in neighborhood, claiming is good. I felt there was a good chance of one of you being scum. I don't have a town read on ash, either. He feels more careful than usual.

Also, protecting prs is usually a high priority, but the prs in this game don't seem worth the importance you are giving them.

I'm sorry if you felt betrayed.  I carefully didn't actually promise or agree to anything in the qt. Sharing a qt feels like comraderie, but with unknown alignments it can't really be that.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #771 on: June 16, 2019, 11:22:03 pm »

DatSwan,  you keep criticizing me for claiming, but in the qt analysis you are referencing, you said (paraphrasing here) that in the case of scum in neighborhood, claiming is good. I felt there was a good chance of one of you being scum. I don't have a town read on ash, either. He feels more careful than usual.

Also, protecting prs is usually a high priority, but the prs in this game don't seem worth the importance you are giving them.

I'm sorry if you felt betrayed.  I carefully didn't actually promise or agree to anything in the qt. Sharing a qt feels like comraderie, but with unknown alignments it can't really be that.

Yeah if itís any condolence i am trying to make it clear i donít like your play but also donít think it means your skum.

Also, to the point of me saying skum in hood = claim is good is our difference of opinion. You think there is and i donít think there is enough evidence to support it. I see the claim From your POV and how it could be good (i disagree with it), but i do see it.

That being said, if you are town, i would ask you to try to look at things from my POV - in which you forcing the claim is like exactly what i would expect skum to do in this spot when you know your hood mates donít want to claim.

What do you think of my logic of looking outside the hood?
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #772 on: June 17, 2019, 01:18:14 am »

DatSwan,  you keep criticizing me for claiming, but in the qt analysis you are referencing, you said (paraphrasing here) that in the case of scum in neighborhood, claiming is good. I felt there was a good chance of one of you being scum. I don't have a town read on ash, either. He feels more careful than usual.

Also, protecting prs is usually a high priority, but the prs in this game don't seem worth the importance you are giving them.

I'm sorry if you felt betrayed.  I carefully didn't actually promise or agree to anything in the qt. Sharing a qt feels like comraderie, but with unknown alignments it can't really be that.

Also, just so it is said - if my criticizing comes off as crass, I apologize, it is not intentional. I am evidently incapable of phrasing my thoughts into a polite manner when I get worked up.
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #773 on: June 17, 2019, 03:43:40 am »

I donít support the plan to claim. I think knowing the people in the neighborhood is important, but I think we should lunch outside the neighborhood for today. Silvers point much earlier that lynching scum in the neighborhood creates ICs is not that great because we get one IC in the best case at this point. I think we have better odds outside the neighborhood even if scum is in the neighborhood?  I havenít been reading super closely so it is possible someone has already brought this up.

Just saying it's only 1 IC because scum will kill the other is not a useful way to look at it, because in drawing a NK the IC is already useful, protecting the PRs. We get 2 ICs. And we have watched and bodyguard potential as well.

For the probability you seem to be mistaken, see DatSwan's post.

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #774 on: June 17, 2019, 03:44:32 am »

What does third party claim in your plan if they are survivor?

If they are willing to cooperate, then third party. If they're not, then whatever they want.
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