Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 27 28 [29] 30 31 ... 62  All

Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 11024 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Glooble

  • Bishop
  • ****
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 113
    • View Profile
    • Solutions to Problems
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #700 on: June 15, 2019, 03:57:13 pm »

I'm not saying names yet because I want to hear from town about whether they think scum was there.

I had a really great theory that didn't pan out. I thought if there was a survivor in the neighborhood they could claim and if there was scum, too, they would claim. The two of them would vig me and then survivor would ally with mafia.

I am having a ton of trouble parsing this second paragraph, EFHW.
Logged

I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

He/ Him

Check out my podcast: www.stppodcast.com

EFHW

  • Navigator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 71
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #701 on: June 15, 2019, 04:11:41 pm »

I'm not saying names yet because I want to hear from town about whether they think scum was there.

I had a really great theory that didn't pan out. I thought if there was a survivor in the neighborhood they could claim and if there was scum, too, they would claim. The two of them would vig me and then survivor would ally with mafia.
Imagine me as town, the second neighbor as scum, and the third neighbor as survivor.

I am having a ton of trouble parsing this second paragraph, EFHW.
Logged

Glooble

  • Bishop
  • ****
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 113
    • View Profile
    • Solutions to Problems
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #702 on: June 15, 2019, 04:19:02 pm »

Ok I think I get it. I was like “why would scum claim?” But I didn’t realize you meant within the neighborhood.
Logged

I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

He/ Him

Check out my podcast: www.stppodcast.com

pingpongsam

  • Torturer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1753
  • Shuffle iT Username: pingpongsam
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #703 on: June 15, 2019, 07:31:49 pm »

Unvote

The whole traitor thing leaves a pretty towny impression on MiX. I think I am going to get a solid chance to reread and post up tomorrow since I can play the father’s day leave me alone for a while card.
Logged
You are the brashest scum player on f.ds.

DatSwan

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swan
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #704 on: June 15, 2019, 11:04:13 pm »

I'm not saying names yet because I want to hear from town about whether they think scum was there.

I had a really great theory that didn't pan out. I thought if there was a survivor in the neighborhood they could claim and if there was scum, too, they would claim. The two of them would vig me and then survivor would ally with mafia.

Dudet I am having so much issue with this line of reasoning, please correct me if I am misinterpreting anything:

1) Your plan is based on assuming your 3 person hood consists of 1 Skum, 1 Survivor, and yourself. You said some stuff went down that made you suspicious of skum... ok cool, fair enough. But how do you justify the leap from "it is me plus 2 others, and I am getting skummy vibes" to "there is exactly 1 skum, 1 survivor, and me and the survivor is gonna claim first followed by skum and then I solve the game"?

2) No one claimed, you were the first. So you were getting skummy vibes and basing the assumption behind it on the concept of skum/survivor claiming. Then no one claimed. So... where as I wanna say "that means you must think you have town people in your hood now", you claim kind of contradicts that.


Maybe I am just fucking up my interpretation - but can you explain to me what the  anticipated upside for Town is based on your claim?
Logged

EFHW

  • Navigator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 71
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #705 on: June 15, 2019, 11:49:27 pm »

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.
Logged

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2504
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #706 on: June 16, 2019, 02:47:19 am »

Vote Count 2.3

jotheonah (2): 2.71828....., gkrieg13
MiX (1): jotheonah
mcmcsalot (2): DatSwan, silverspawn
Glooble (1): MiX
ashersky (1): pubby

Not Voting (5): Glooble, mcmcsalot, EFHW, ashersky, pingpongsam

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on June 19, 2019, 10:10:00 am.
Logged
Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

MiX

  • Steward
  • ***
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 25
  • Shuffle iT Username: MiX
  • It's me.
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #707 on: June 16, 2019, 05:25:27 am »

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

The sooner you out them, the faster we can start considering them.

Joth's one of them, and I suspect the other's pubby? Maaaaaybe ss/pps. So if I can figure this out surely scum can, I don't see why you would scumread them and not out them.
Logged
I don’t think even MiX is townreading MiX.

Glooble

  • Bishop
  • ****
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 113
    • View Profile
    • Solutions to Problems
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #708 on: June 16, 2019, 05:38:00 am »

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

The sooner you out them, the faster we can start considering them.

Joth's one of them, and I suspect the other's pubby? Maaaaaybe ss/pps. So if I can figure this out surely scum can, I don't see why you would scumread them and not out them.

Joth wanted to vig... himself?
Logged

I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

He/ Him

Check out my podcast: www.stppodcast.com

MiX

  • Steward
  • ***
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 25
  • Shuffle iT Username: MiX
  • It's me.
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #709 on: June 16, 2019, 05:41:31 am »

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

The sooner you out them, the faster we can start considering them.

Joth's one of them, and I suspect the other's pubby? Maaaaaybe ss/pps. So if I can figure this out surely scum can, I don't see why you would scumread them and not out them.

Joth wanted to vig... himself?

I suppose EFHW wouldn't suggest someone in it, but the way she said the second person didn't want Glooble and said nothing about joth seems like it would be joth. Just wild guessing, which is something scum can do better knowing 4 people that cannot be in the neighborhood. Regardless, scumreading neighbors is pointless if they aren't revealed.
Logged
I don’t think even MiX is townreading MiX.

EFHW

  • Navigator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 71
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #710 on: June 16, 2019, 06:11:27 am »

The one I'm scumreading is DatSwan.  I'm being cautious because I have been mistakenly scumreading him for a few games now.
Logged

EFHW

  • Navigator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 71
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #711 on: June 16, 2019, 06:14:42 am »

He's the 9ne who didn't suggest or object to anyone  and who was the strongest against claiming.

The other one was ashersky,  who was also against claiming.
Logged

EFHW

  • Navigator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 71
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #712 on: June 16, 2019, 06:21:28 am »

ashersky not coming forward after I claimed and after the pr argument was negated without protest makes me think he doesn't want it known that he is in the neighborhood,  either.
Logged

EFHW

  • Navigator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 71
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #713 on: June 16, 2019, 06:23:25 am »

*without protest from the rest of town
Logged

MiX

  • Steward
  • ***
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 25
  • Shuffle iT Username: MiX
  • It's me.
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #714 on: June 16, 2019, 06:26:18 am »

So it's EFHW/ash/Swan... most likely they're 3 town, since I don't think any of them would pick survivor. Of these 3...yes, I suppose Swan's the scummiest, but I would sooner lynch EFHW...which revealed this information at my request. I think we just outed 3 town. Thank you EFHW.

I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.
Logged
I don’t think even MiX is townreading MiX.

EFHW

  • Navigator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 71
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #715 on: June 16, 2019, 06:35:52 am »

If Datswan was the scummiest, why would you rather lynch me?

I'm really surprised by your reaction.  Usually you would take more time to go through each possibility.
Logged

EFHW

  • Navigator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 71
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #716 on: June 16, 2019, 06:38:38 am »

I agree that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.  But I think people in this group would find the idea appealing. 
Logged

MiX

  • Steward
  • ***
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 25
  • Shuffle iT Username: MiX
  • It's me.
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #717 on: June 16, 2019, 06:49:25 am »

If Datswan was the scummiest, why would you rather lynch me?

I'm really surprised by your reaction.  Usually you would take more time to go through each possibility.

Ash said he wouldn't pick survivor (I completely trust him on that), you revealed the neighborhood (which is pointless for a survivor, since you determined why survivor isn't in the same neighborhood as scum with your crazy theory) and I doubt Swan's survivor for meta reasons, although I suppose he could be. So if you're either scum or town, I think you're all town because that's what I thought before you revealed.

Swan's "scummiest" because everyone has been scumreading them, which means scum!EFHW would love to give another reason to scumread him. But really I think you're all town.

Does anyone know a good scum!Glooble game? Because he hasn't gotten scum ever since he came back and I'm having a hard time metareading him.
Logged
I don’t think even MiX is townreading MiX.

Glooble

  • Bishop
  • ****
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 113
    • View Profile
    • Solutions to Problems
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #718 on: June 16, 2019, 07:09:16 am »


I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.

I’m ready to vote: MiX finally. He’s admitting he doesn’t actually have a case on me - if he had one, he wouldn’t need to “get” one.

Town wants to find scum. Scum wants to “get a case” on whatever player they’ve decided is today’s easy mislynch.
Logged

I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

He/ Him

Check out my podcast: www.stppodcast.com

MiX

  • Steward
  • ***
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 25
  • Shuffle iT Username: MiX
  • It's me.
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #719 on: June 16, 2019, 07:15:05 am »


I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.

I’m ready to vote: MiX finally. He’s admitting he doesn’t actually have a case on me - if he had one, he wouldn’t need to “get” one.

Town wants to find scum. Scum wants to “get a case” on whatever player they’ve decided is today’s easy mislynch.

Scum would've had a case a while ago...but fine, tell me how I can make a case without knowing how you act when you're scum. Everything I could point out as inconsistencies (scumreading Swan for no reason, going back to the other game to scumread Swan some more, saying ADK's also scum because he's lying even though scum's the least likely one to lie...hmm...I actually forgot about everything you did this game that was scummy, should've written it down) you can easily say you're playing differently or you can point at a town game where you do that.

The "easy mislynch" today's...oh yeah it's you. Unless enough people go for Swan(?) or something. Nevermind it's mcmc. So why am I wasting time with you?
Logged
I don’t think even MiX is townreading MiX.

silverspawn

  • Governor
  • *****
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 4189
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #720 on: June 16, 2019, 07:22:40 am »

So it's EFHW/ash/Swan... most likely they're 3 town, since I don't think any of them would pick survivor. Of these 3...yes, I suppose Swan's the scummiest, but I would sooner lynch EFHW...which revealed this information at my request. I think we just outed 3 town. Thank you EFHW.

I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.

what? forget the survivor. One of them can be MAFIA.
Logged

MiX

  • Steward
  • ***
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 25
  • Shuffle iT Username: MiX
  • It's me.
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #721 on: June 16, 2019, 07:25:32 am »

So it's EFHW/ash/Swan... most likely they're 3 town, since I don't think any of them would pick survivor. Of these 3...yes, I suppose Swan's the scummiest, but I would sooner lynch EFHW...which revealed this information at my request. I think we just outed 3 town. Thank you EFHW.

I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.

what? forget the survivor. One of them can be MAFIA.

Fine, but I'm also townreading all of them. I don't think any of them are scum.
Logged
I don’t think even MiX is townreading MiX.

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2339
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #722 on: June 16, 2019, 07:44:04 am »

ashersky not coming forward after I claimed and after the pr argument was negated without protest makes me think he doesn't want it known that he is in the neighborhood,  either.

Well, no, I didn’t. I didn’t want it known you were in it either.  At this point, town neighbors’ best role is to draw NKs away from remaining town PRs. Now, I can’t, and since I was townreading you, you can’t either. I think your claim was a mistake, but a town-reasoning-driven one.

I also noted Datswan didn’t suggest any targets. I was enjoying watching their posts as if they weren’t neighbor and I wondered where it would go.
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year

Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
Scum: 22 Games, 13 Wins
11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

silverspawn

  • Governor
  • *****
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 4189
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #723 on: June 16, 2019, 08:34:35 am »

Short probabilities post. Let's assume no 3d party neighbor. What is the probability p of having two additional town members? It depends on how many PRs scum picked. If it's ...

... 4, then p = 28.6%  (6 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 3, then p = 14.3%  (3 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 2, then p = 04.8%  (1 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 1, then p = 00.0%
Logged

silverspawn

  • Governor
  • *****
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 4189
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #724 on: June 16, 2019, 08:35:59 am »

We could verify this via massclaim. That would give us additional information about how many PRs there are. But I don't think there's a world in which I don't want to lynch out of the neighborhood. Probably ash or DatSwan. Probably DatSwan.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 27 28 [29] 30 31 ... 62  All
 

Page created in 0.159 seconds with 20 queries.