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Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 156398 times)

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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #625 on: June 13, 2019, 11:51:39 am »

I had a post ready to defend myself, when I realized I only really get in the game if people vote for me. This probably means I deserve the votes.

My reads are a bit weak, I don't have good cases and I fall back on my votes too easily. That's a good case, right? What can I say, it's true.

Ash's readslist is really good, just disagree with his take on e and myself, oh and joth/ss are both town.

thanks for 100% proving my point I guess?

Am I pleasing people by being passive? I can see mcmc's anger for my passiveness from here, and surely others will say the same. I don't think I would make this post as scum, I would sooner say why I think Glooble's scum or something.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #626 on: June 13, 2019, 12:01:18 pm »

I had a post ready to defend myself, when I realized I only really get in the game if people vote for me. This probably means I deserve the votes.

My reads are a bit weak, I don't have good cases and I fall back on my votes too easily. That's a good case, right? What can I say, it's true.

Ash's readslist is really good, just disagree with his take on e and myself, oh and joth/ss are both town.

thanks for 100% proving my point I guess?

Am I pleasing people by being passive? I can see mcmc's anger for my passiveness from here, and surely others will say the same. I don't think I would make this post as scum, I would sooner say why I think Glooble's scum or something.

I just accused you of basically agreeing with everything and then you basically agreed with me.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #627 on: June 13, 2019, 12:04:59 pm »

I had a post ready to defend myself, when I realized I only really get in the game if people vote for me. This probably means I deserve the votes.

My reads are a bit weak, I don't have good cases and I fall back on my votes too easily. That's a good case, right? What can I say, it's true.

Ash's readslist is really good, just disagree with his take on e and myself, oh and joth/ss are both town.

I get that. Town on MiX.
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #628 on: June 13, 2019, 12:05:31 pm »

I had a post ready to defend myself, when I realized I only really get in the game if people vote for me. This probably means I deserve the votes.

My reads are a bit weak, I don't have good cases and I fall back on my votes too easily. That's a good case, right? What can I say, it's true.

Ash's readslist is really good, just disagree with his take on e and myself, oh and joth/ss are both town.

I get that. Town on MiX.

This makes me a little more null on e. Is that possible?
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #629 on: June 13, 2019, 12:06:57 pm »

I just accused you of basically agreeing with everything and then you basically agreed with me.

And town!me would do...what? Fight back, call you obv!scum, deny facts, provide an amazing case that I didn't provide earlier because I was waiting for someone to accuse me of being passive...no really what did you expect? Town!me has nothing to disprove what you said.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #630 on: June 13, 2019, 12:23:04 pm »

I had a post ready to defend myself, when I realized I only really get in the game if people vote for me. This probably means I deserve the votes.

My reads are a bit weak, I don't have good cases and I fall back on my votes too easily. That's a good case, right? What can I say, it's true.

Ash's readslist is really good, just disagree with his take on e and myself, oh and joth/ss are both town.

I get that. Town on MiX.

This makes me a little more null on e. Is that possible?

More null than null?
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #631 on: June 13, 2019, 12:28:15 pm »

I had a post ready to defend myself, when I realized I only really get in the game if people vote for me. This probably means I deserve the votes.

My reads are a bit weak, I don't have good cases and I fall back on my votes too easily. That's a good case, right? What can I say, it's true.

Ash's readslist is really good, just disagree with his take on e and myself, oh and joth/ss are both town.

I get that. Town on MiX.

This makes me a little more null on e. Is that possible?

More null than null?

More null than scum. As in, I don't think what you said makes you townier, but I think you're less scum. So overall I don't know what to think of it. Still think you're scum, however, but I think Glooble's even more. Given there's at least 4 living scum I think PoE means one of you two have to be scum. I'll think about this in the weekend, after finals.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #632 on: June 13, 2019, 12:31:34 pm »

One thing I've noticed this town in particular loves doing is saying "I think this person is scum" and then not laying down any kind of a case to back that up. We had pubby and joth, Eddie and e, and now MiX and me.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #633 on: June 13, 2019, 12:32:11 pm »

One thing I've noticed this town in particular loves doing is saying "I think this person is scum" and then not laying down any kind of a case to back that up. We had pubby and joth, Eddie and e, and now MiX and me.

Wait, who do you think is scum?
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #634 on: June 13, 2019, 12:38:39 pm »

One thing I've noticed this town in particular loves doing is saying "I think this person is scum" and then not laying down any kind of a case to back that up. We had pubby and joth, Eddie and e, and now MiX and me.

Wait, who do you think is scum?


If I had a strong scum read, I would be voting for them.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #635 on: June 14, 2019, 12:39:17 am »

I'd be fine voting for MiX actually. It rubbed me the wrong way how behaved around my joth vote. He was absolutely voting to please me and start a bandwagon - he said he'd vote with me before I even gave my reasoning (and it's not like the reasoning I gave was strong anyway). Funnily enough, he switches his vote to me almost immediately after once he realizes people would rather bandwagon vote me than joth.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Night 1)
« Reply #636 on: June 14, 2019, 12:42:17 am »

I wonder if e is a neighbor and prompted the kill on eddie.
? Why?
I'm trying to guess which player was scum-killed and which player was neighborhood-killed. I think ADK came off more towny yesterday, and Eddie came off more scummy, so maybe scum killed ADK and neighbors killed Eddie. And the player most likely to have a bone to pick with Eddie is e.

Don't think this matters much at all though :P
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #637 on: June 14, 2019, 02:57:24 am »

I'd be fine voting for MiX actually. It rubbed me the wrong way how behaved around my joth vote. He was absolutely voting to please me and start a bandwagon - he said he'd vote with me before I even gave my reasoning (and it's not like the reasoning I gave was strong anyway). Funnily enough, he switches his vote to me almost immediately after once he realizes people would rather bandwagon vote me than joth.

Your case was good enough and it fit right in with the narrative I already had. Besides, a joth lynch would be better than what we did, which was to go after 2 new players that act scummy for reasons (haven't figured out yours yet).

I swapped for you just to see what would happen, I didn't mean for you to get lynched. It was a silly decision but I was extremely tired and I felt like impacting the game with my vote. For me it confirmed you're town, given how quickly you went to L-1.

Gut scum reads from chum to scum: joth (yeah, still can be, I don't know...), mcmc, E, Glooble. Just for future reference.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #638 on: June 14, 2019, 03:15:08 am »

I totally forgot about who was scummy this game, but I'll get into it via a reread and then tell you make a wild guess about whether MiX is scummy or not.

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #639 on: June 14, 2019, 03:26:33 am »

Vote Count 2.2

jotheonah (1): pubby
MiX (2): pingpongsam, jotheonah
mcmcsalot (1): ashersky
Glooble (1): MiX

Not Voting (7): Glooble, DatSwan, mcmcsalot, EFHW, 2.71828....., gkrieg13, silverspawn

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on June 19, 2019, 10:10:00 am.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #640 on: June 14, 2019, 04:55:35 am »

So, as I chose to do the VCA and then come up with the concept of looking into [MiX, Glooble, SS] I felt I should do some ISOs. BEWARE the wall posts to come. They have good info (or at least I think they do) but they are sadly disappointing.

One thing, inference, guess, whatever you want to call it, that I did take away from it - I have never done a VCA and not been able to then ISO out the players and find someone that I feel confident in pursuing (at least compared to the others on the list). As of this game right now, it has now happened. This leads me to believe Mafia has Day Chat. Upon thinking about it after doing the ISO's - a fantastic combo would be [Traitor Knows Mafia + Day Chat]. It would allow them to coordinate through the day to not who they think is the Traitor (or Traitors), as well would explain why the VCA is so hard to interpret.

We also may want to look into players that normally are super active Day 1, but were not this Day 1. As, if they have day chat, they could of been using up their time speaking there instead of in the public thread.


All that aside - here are the 3 sets of notes I have on MiX, Glooble and SS...
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #641 on: June 14, 2019, 04:56:29 am »

Silver Notes:

114 - votes GK for the comment about Mafia winning N1. I don't see how that is skummy talk. Personally, I had not considered that that could be an option. But if there are 5 Mafia (2 of them traitors), it could of pointed out to a potential Town PGO that N1 may not be the best night to activate their ability because of the Hood Vig Kill.

128 - find both MiX and the people on his wagon skummy - That is MiX plus [mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, pingpongsam, Debatepro]. Aside from being just a amazingly open ended accusation, we also now know that ADK and Debate were town. Just to be noted - but for inferences I am choosing not to go into right now, this post really pinged me in the wrong way.

211 - points out they are aware of the fact that the majority of their posts are non-committal... which is absolutely true. It is also a skum trait. I just can't decide if vocalizing it is skummy/defensive or towny trying to help.

261 - policy votes MiX - This kind of plays into post 128. I don't necessarily disagree with the concept of the policy vote or its merits, but they opened the door to be able to vote 5/12 other players, then continues to go for PPS, then for MiX, and also ends up on the Debatepro eod wagon. Again, another thing that isn't like "skummy" because they did say they skum read all of those players... but also the open ended nature of it is just weird.

277 - defends MiX vs Joth

298 - Previously skum read [Mix, mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, pingpongsam, Debatepro]. Now does a re read and find Pubby as skummy and town block is [ADK, Glooble, Eddie, Joth]. - So ADK moves to town from skum. It appears MiX does as well based on 277. [Glooble, Eddie, Joth] are town blocked. And [MCMC, PPS, DebatePro] are dropped from the SR list. There were like 100+ posts, so things could of changed, but that is a lot of changes.

370 - Debatepro is an OK lynch again.

378 - Doesn't want to lynch E or Joth. Already had Joth on that list, and gave a good explanation for E! not being the best choice.

400 - Doesn't want to lynch EFHW or GK

454 - unvotes pubby. Had been previously saying they would not unvote until pubby showed up and answered some stuff, but unvotes when pubby gets to L1. Town points I think there.

458 - Votes E after stating they did not want to lynch E. Later says they did not have the actual intention of lynching E.

517 - moves vote to Debate pro when there is only 13 minutes


Summary - They are pushing angles, but not committing to a given one. They are leaving things open, but it was Day 1, so that isn't really too crazy. In between all of that I think their general energy is Towny. All in all, I do not think they would be the best of what I find acceptable options for today.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #642 on: June 14, 2019, 04:56:51 am »

MiX Notes:

124 - So everything up to this point is just early game interaction. Makes some early day 1 "they are town" calls... says Joth is Skum (or SK, to be specific), votes around a little bit and lands on SS. In this post they also make an error saying there won't be ICs in this game. Given the Hood situation there is absolutely a way for there to be IC(s) in this game. Don't think it was a slip, but worth noting.

132 - alone this post means nothing, but when paired with 124, it makes me think possible slip? MiX states that they "have the skum team solved"... it is joth/gkrieg/ss/e, mcmc's survivor... but they "don't know who the SK is". When called out on it they say "Ah I thought that was the case, I meant 1/4 of them was the traitor". I am inclined to believe MiX here as someone that often puts their foot to mouth myself. So right now, nothing to be had from this, but it should be noted for potential later days.

175 - votes GK for "letting the traitor know how to play". Odd vote. The traitor knows how to play. No traitor is gonna come out and purposefully over crumb, and talking about it certainly is not skummy.

Then there is a lot of filler - not that it is bad I guess, just kind of conversations for conversations sake.

256 - I don't need to follow through if it doesn't help town bit.

278 - The key to not breaking promises is to not make them - this is correct. it also shouldn't be like a revaluation. as town you should be able to make very few "promises".

307 - Defending me and ADK vs Debatepro. In hindsight, and with pov, this is MiX defending 2 town vs a town. Again, I want to say conf!bias skummy, but it obv could also be town v town/town/town.

340 - Good break down of Debatepro's reads list, which they could of used to attack them, but did not.

460 - leaves pubby when they are at L1 - as I think pubby was a weird wagon at the time, I assign town points for that.

Mix then goes on to finish middle wagon on Debatepro. There is other stuff, but I am not going into all of it.



Summary:

1) MiX is playing different than usual:

I have played like 5 games with MiX. I was skum once, they pushed the shit out of me correctly. I was town 4 times. 3 of those 4 times I thought they were skum and they were town, the time I hard defended them they were the SK. So, take any inferences I seem to be making with a grain of salt - I am not claiming to to be a MiX read expert.
Different in this instance has more to do with 2 things:
a) They are being far more defensive of people voting them than they usually are.
b) They are being far more cooperative in general then they normally are.
*As they have played the same in any game I can think of in the past, the a/b above are kind of NAI, but they are def different than usual*

2) MiX is doing a good job of being active this game, but they are putting a lot of questions on other people instead of intensely breaking down one person at a time (which is the mix I know, as both town and/or mafia). The game this feels most similar to is when they were SK.

So on MiX I am leaning either like EXACTLY Traitor, or town... which sucks because that is 2 out of three cases that don't really have a great end point to go on.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #643 on: June 14, 2019, 04:57:18 am »

Glooble Notes:

198 - up to this point standard RVS shit. Disagrees with mylo day 2 concept, takes a stance on SK hunting vs Traitor hunting... the usual stuff. Then in this post they jump on me for my interaction with Ashes after EFHW opens the door. Not OMGUS... it just strikes me a skummy.

206 - post about mis interpretation vs mis characterization. That part doesn't matter. What does matter is the way they talk about it as if they know Ashes is town.

209 - again attacking me. this time with the concept of "mafia 101, skum wants to create suspicion". This is actually a fair point in Glooble's defense. It was not my intention, but there inference of the situation is not necessarily skummy.

250 - Glooble reads the skum thread ADK and I brought up to clear the air... kind of. They read, I am assuming, the first page or so, and then came back and posted. I have not played enough with them to know if that rush is skummy or not - but I am pointing it out.

306 - I do not think Town has a reason to lie about anything. - Lord save me and never let awaclus ever see this... but in the time I have actually played with Glooble, I can say that he is a good enough player to know that is a false statement.

403 - points out in this size game that there will be lurkers and that it is likely that we will find skum there. I am gonna expand on that more later, but a hell of a towny point to make.

422 - more town points. pushing for consolidating wagons.

Glooble ends up on the Debatepro wagon. Their end of day posts struck me as towny.


Summary:

Fuck if i know. I think the fact they were so fixated on me and ADK is odd, but it is also understandable. They do skummy stuff, but the overall interaction seems to be on the towny side of things. So again... lamely, I have no case here over the others mentioned.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #644 on: June 14, 2019, 04:59:27 am »

Also, super off topic side note - I think it is skummy of everyone that pushed for the Neighbors to claim. Based on VCA I wanted to lynch one of the here mentioned 3 players, but after reading, possibly looking into the pro-claim group may be a better option.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #645 on: June 14, 2019, 05:11:15 am »

Vote: MCMC

Until someone else brings something more interesting up, it is that for me with the possibility of Joth (for Hood Claim push), SS for the same, and Pubby for a totally aside reason ... PPS gets added to that list pretty soon for the same reason as MCMC, but I am to believe they have been traveling, so IRL pass for now.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #646 on: June 14, 2019, 07:14:47 am »

I feel like Swan's Glooble post is really solid, untill he starts saying things are towny for no reason. Pointing that lurkers are scum is a great pretext to scumread pubby, pushing for wagons is easy if they're both on town (which I suspect they were) and then you give a gut townread for his EoD which for me doesn't excuse the rest.

On the other hand Swan's spot on about his take on me, except you've played with scum!me as town.

Who else will join me on the Glooble wagon? Come on, Swan made an amazing case, how can you turn away from it?
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #647 on: June 14, 2019, 08:15:41 am »

My position on lying as town is well documented and consistent with every game of played. I don't do it and I'm suspicious of anyone who does. I know there are situations where it seems appealing in order to catch scum in a lie, but I think its very seldom if ever worth undermining the trust of town.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #648 on: June 14, 2019, 08:17:40 am »

And yes, DatSwan, I did not read the entire scum QT. I stopped when I found what looked like a blatant contradiction. I didn't think anything after night 0 would be relevant to my point anyway.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #649 on: June 14, 2019, 09:55:32 am »

Rereading now
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