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Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 16108 times)

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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #600 on: June 12, 2019, 07:14:47 pm »

EBWOP:

If two are alive now, one scum and one town, and the town gets NKd, we risk not having it, because the scum would just not claim. That's why we should only delay the claim if 3 or 4 are still alive right now: as you said, we won't have two deaths at the same time, and there is at most one scum. So if 3 are still alive today, then at least 1 town is still alive tomorrow
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2.71828.....

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #601 on: June 13, 2019, 12:19:52 am »

@ Neighbor Claim:

1 Neighbor - They should prob claim, we get an IC, and skum is forced to kill them off instead of PR hunting... i think that is a good play.

4 Neighbors - I doubt if there were 4 we would still be having this convo, they obviously would know a skum is in the hood, and because of that skum knows who is in the hood, so all it does is give town POV plus and then of course when we find that skum the other members are IC.

2-3 Neighbors - This is tricky. Either option gives the possibilities of [all town, town and skum] with the additional possibility of [town and survivor, or town skum survivor]. If skum is in the hood, then they have all the info... so a claim tells them nothing but helps town. If skum is not in the hood then they donít have the info and it just helps them iso their kill selection at night.

All of that is fairly easily calculated - the important part is this:
If there are 2-3 members in the hood, and they claim, we have no idea if they are all town, or if not, which one is skum. I just donít know if the risk/reward is there for the claim.

Like, letís say there are 3. They claim. What do we do? Leave them alone or start lynching them? If skum is in there then it could be a good idea, but if skum is not on there, they just learned 3 people that donít have PRs. If we decide to start lynching them we could just be throwing the game right there if they are all town.


TLDR; it all comes down to how likely we think it is that skum picked to be in the pool. When skum was choosing roles they MUST OF considered that choosing to be in the hood would put them in a potential situation where they are being hunted for based on a claim (or if there were 4 in hood)... makes me feel like it is far fetched to say ďthey for sure picked itĒ.

If there was 1 or 4 we would either already know, or we will know soon i assume.
If there are 2-3, for reasons best not discussed at this time, i do not think they should claim today.

I think this is a pretty good summary and also points to why we shouldn't "force the neighborhood to claim"

I think members of the neighborhood should claim if something significant happened in that neighborhood that could help us catch scum, but if not there is no reason to claim. And I trust each player in the game is able to do that if they were in the neighborhood.
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2.71828.....

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #602 on: June 13, 2019, 12:21:08 am »

Sorry I want around much D1, dropping off my in laws at the airport this morning which should help getting into D2 a lot better
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faust

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #603 on: June 13, 2019, 02:46:21 am »

Vote Count 2.1

jotheonah (1): pubby
2.71828..... (1): MiX

Not Voting (10): Glooble, DatSwan, pingpongsam, mcmcsalot, EFHW, 2.71828....., ashersky, gkrieg13, silverspawn, jotheonah

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on June 19, 2019, 10:10:00 am.
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DatSwan

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #604 on: June 13, 2019, 03:17:58 am »

OK I have done my Day 1 VCA and it is unfortunately lame. The end of the day has some points for now, but that is about it:

This is VC 1.9:

MiX (1): pingpongsam
jotheonah (2): pubby, A Drowned Kernel
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....
Deatepro (3): jotheonah, EFHW, Uncleeurope

Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky

- OK so I am *assuming* there is a traitor that knows who skum is.
-Pubby gets run up to L1. We know that the L2 player is town (Debate).
- The unknown player who put it at L1 (E!) *probably*would not of done that if they could of moved to Town!Debate instead if pubby is mafia.
- So at the minimum, E! kind of cannot be traitor if Pubby is Skum, and E!Pubby is most likely not a thing. It could be Skum vs Town and it could be Town vs Town, but those are kind of the only two options.
- I am leaning on the town side of things for E! right now, so that makes me want to look at [silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13] in this grouping.


Fast forwarding slightly, we get to the final vote count of:

MiX (3): pingpongsam, debatepro
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, gkrieg13, 2.71828.....
Debatepro (8): jotheonah, EFHW, MiX, pubby, ADK, Glooble, silverspawn, Uncleeurope

Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky

That is 6 unknowns and 2 town on a town lynch.

Reading back, the people I want to be suspicious of are either in the start of the wagon [Joth EFHW MiX], all of which I am leaning townish on right now.
Then at the end of the wagon [Glooble, SS].

The people that match with the Pubby wagon logic are [Glooble, SS, MiX].

Anyone have any thoughts on that?
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #605 on: June 13, 2019, 04:33:51 am »

Thereís no such thing as a bad MiX lynch.
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pingpongsam

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #606 on: June 13, 2019, 07:36:31 am »

I wish previous day votes were persistent so I didnít have to bother with Vote: MiX.

I just spent the night in Reagan National in DC thanks to my connecting flight being late af. This is probably as close to drunk as I can get since I donít drink. AMA. Flight boards in 20 minutes.
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #607 on: June 13, 2019, 07:46:11 am »

Which third party role would you pick?
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pingpongsam

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #608 on: June 13, 2019, 07:50:29 am »

Which third party role would you pick?

 I didnít read much of the setup. It looked hard so I skipped it. But Iíll take a look at the options now and throw a dart at one for you.

Okay, so if I had to pick Iíd go with rolestopper, which I guess is the same as roleblocker? But if I didnít have to pick then I just wouldnít so I can watch everyone wallow in WIFOM when in reality itís just a standard deck weíre dealt.
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #609 on: June 13, 2019, 08:19:14 am »

I would have definitely picked either the tracker guy who wants all PRs dead or the neighborhood guy.
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #610 on: June 13, 2019, 08:29:45 am »

Which third party role would you pick?

 I didnít read much of the setup. It looked hard so I skipped it. But Iíll take a look at the options now and throw a dart at one for you.

Okay, so if I had to pick Iíd go with rolestopper, which I guess is the same as roleblocker? But if I didnít have to pick then I just wouldnít so I can watch everyone wallow in WIFOM when in reality itís just a standard deck weíre dealt.

So is this a towntell from pps? Regardless I don't think he can be third-party.

Thereís no such thing as a bad MiX lynch.

Why do you think I'm scum?
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #611 on: June 13, 2019, 08:36:05 am »

pps I'm sorry hanging out didn't work out, crazy week for me, but I hope my fair city treated you well. Maybe next time!

Everybody's suddenly voting MiX now and I just said I wouldn't. :/

I'm V/LA all weekend, including Friday -- heading to the Berkshires for a wedding and not planning to be online throughout that time. I'll try to do a reread and plant a vote today or tonight.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #612 on: June 13, 2019, 08:56:38 am »

Tracker reporter seemed like the obvious choice to me, just because power roles tend to die before the game ends anyway.

But then I realized you still would have to survive a lot of lynches and a lot of nightkills, which can be a tricky balance (if you're towny enough not to get lynched, you're towny enough for scum to kill you.) So probably better to take neighbor survivor, where at least you have a buffer against half of the equation.

Anyway, what exactly is the point of this line of questioning?
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #613 on: June 13, 2019, 09:01:39 am »


Thereís no such thing as a bad MiX lynch.

Why do you think I'm scum?

I don't think you are town.  I think because you aren't towny in general, so it's hard to think of you as town.

This game, your odd stances on voting certain players throws me off, because willy nilly stuff like that is generally anti-town.
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Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #614 on: June 13, 2019, 09:04:30 am »

I'm surprised at people's thinking on third party choices.  If you want to win (regardless of fun), you don't go it alone.  SK/Survivor is hard.

You have to choose to join the mafia, making a 5-player team.  Even unknown, that's just a huge boon and a difficult situation for town.  I mean, maybe you could go survivor and claim?  If Neighbors stay hidden, Mafia have to decide whether to shoot you to kill neighbors or not.  But just being a traitor seems like the best move.

Again, that is if you choose based on wanting to win.  If you choose for fun or personal preference, there's no real rhyme or reason that matters.
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

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Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

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Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #615 on: June 13, 2019, 09:07:10 am »

Some quick reads:

PPS is towny, 2.7 is towny, joth feels towny, which might mean something different.
Glooble sits firmly in the safe zone of null.
MiX is scummy for not being towny.  Faust is scummy for not being NKed N1. 
SS feels scummy, which probably means he's town.
I like Dat's effort.  EFHW taking on the faust inquisitor role is fine. 

Wake up vote: mom salon
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year

Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
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Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
Scum: 22 Games, 13 Wins
11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #616 on: June 13, 2019, 09:24:55 am »

Ashersky and Datswan, where were you yesterday? If you knew you wouldnít be online before deadline, why didnít you plant your vote somewhere, anywhere, before you checked out?
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #617 on: June 13, 2019, 09:31:47 am »

Ashersky and Datswan, where were you yesterday? If you knew you wouldnít be online before deadline, why didnít you plant your vote somewhere, anywhere, before you checked out?

My bad there.  I came to the forum four minutes after deadline.

I don't know why I don't vote very much.  That mcmc vote might be my first of the game.  Since I came back after my long break, I've been reticent to overuse my votes. 

As for D1, that was just my mistake on timing.  Time zones are hard, I guess.  IRL as well.
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year

Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
Scum: 22 Games, 13 Wins
11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #618 on: June 13, 2019, 09:35:38 am »

Definitely agreed that faust is scum, but without a mod I don't think town can win... Jokes aside I agree with ash's read list almost completely.

Vote: Glooble, FoS: mcmc
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #619 on: June 13, 2019, 09:51:44 am »

Tracker reporter seemed like the obvious choice to me, just because power roles tend to die before the game ends anyway.

But then I realized you still would have to survive a lot of lynches and a lot of nightkills, which can be a tricky balance (if you're towny enough not to get lynched, you're towny enough for scum to kill you.) So probably better to take neighbor survivor, where at least you have a buffer against half of the equation.

Anyway, what exactly is the point of this line of questioning?

Is it bothering you?
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #620 on: June 13, 2019, 09:56:40 am »

I promise Iíll reread soon. Super super sorry
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #621 on: June 13, 2019, 09:58:23 am »

Tracker reporter seemed like the obvious choice to me, just because power roles tend to die before the game ends anyway.

But then I realized you still would have to survive a lot of lynches and a lot of nightkills, which can be a tricky balance (if you're towny enough not to get lynched, you're towny enough for scum to kill you.) So probably better to take neighbor survivor, where at least you have a buffer against half of the equation.

Anyway, what exactly is the point of this line of questioning?

Is it bothering you?

Not particularly. I don't think it's harmful to speculate about, but I'm also having a hard time seeing the benefit.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #622 on: June 13, 2019, 10:55:22 am »

Ok, I give up. vote: MiX

I think I figured out what's bugging me about MiX this game. He's totally spineless, just doing whatever he can to get people to like him! I posted that whole stupid appeal to emotion thing (which was completely legit, but objectively kind of BS) and he responded by unvoting me. Well, if he was really scumreading me, why would he do that? And then just now ash posts a list and it's "I agree completely".

I mean, his first vote is to join the wagon on himself! How much more of a people-pleaser can you be?

Day 1 he hands out a lot of town passes, and votes for people, but then backs off as soon as they respond (random example:
Why am I scummier than EFHW?

You explained a point that didn't have to be explained further, and in fact I think it was anti-town to explain it. EFHW left it more in the wind.

On the other hand you're town now and EFHW's scummier still, so maybe I was wrong.

Vote: ss
)

Later on in the day, he does start to actually commit to reads/votes after a little pushback, mainly on Debate and on me. Maybe those are wagons he's concluded will be reasonably popular? Maybe being on my case is a "freebie" given our weird meta?

But overall, MiX this game seems not just fickle and vote jumpy (which is par for the course for MiX) but fickle, vote jumpy, and people-pleasy, which could just be MiX trying to adapt to the fact that he's often scumread erroneously (like me!) but I find that adaptation more likely from scum!MiX (or Survivor/SK!MiX). Backing off of people as soon as they pushback seems like the strategy of someone who values staying alive over lynching scum.
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #623 on: June 13, 2019, 11:44:08 am »

I had a post ready to defend myself, when I realized I only really get in the game if people vote for me. This probably means I deserve the votes.

My reads are a bit weak, I don't have good cases and I fall back on my votes too easily. That's a good case, right? What can I say, it's true.

Ash's readslist is really good, just disagree with his take on e and myself, oh and joth/ss are both town.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #624 on: June 13, 2019, 11:50:16 am »

I had a post ready to defend myself, when I realized I only really get in the game if people vote for me. This probably means I deserve the votes.

My reads are a bit weak, I don't have good cases and I fall back on my votes too easily. That's a good case, right? What can I say, it's true.

Ash's readslist is really good, just disagree with his take on e and myself, oh and joth/ss are both town.

thanks for 100% proving my point I guess?
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