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[Swowl]

The phony math in DatSwan’s argument is the implicit assumption that scum in the hood and no scum in the hood are equally likely. So when you say “why would we pick 33% OR 42% over 0% or whatever percent” that makes sense in a world where we have no idea whether there’s scum.

But that’s just lazy, just like all probability arguments are lazy, because we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not there’a scum in the hood, just like we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not someone is scum. We’re not choosing at random.

At the end of the day, I don’t care if we lynch inside or outside. We win by lynching the scummiest player. I still think that’s MiX, who made a blatant scumslip. But I also think that pst ost by Ash was an over the top appeal to emotion that screams scum. I mean look at that last sentence for crying out loud, it’s like a bad TV lawyer.

So both my top scumreads are consistent with a scum-in-the-hood theory. EFHW has her own reasons for thinking there’s scum in the hood and, again, they are better and more solid than brimless math.

So it is not brainless, it actually goes over literally all of the ranges based on all the potential set ups we could be in. If you mean it is brainless, as in so obvious anyone could do it, that is fair... but it’s purpose was to focus on the fact that there is never a 0% chance of finding skum outside the hood, but there is that possibility if we lynch inside the hood.

[Swowl]

Where are you getting the 42% number from?

2 skum plus 1 traitor = 3/7 = 42.8%

[silverspawn]

Where are you getting the 42% number from?

2 skum plus 1 traitor = 3/7 = 42.8%

But there are 9 people outside of the neighborhood, so 8 others, so it should be 3/8

[Swowl]

Where are you getting the 42% number from?

2 skum plus 1 traitor = 3/7 = 42.8%

But there are 9 people outside of the neighborhood, so 8 others, so it should be 3/8

Dumb. Did it off a 13 player start. You are correct.

Again, doesn’t super matter what the %s were - the point i was trying to illustrate was potentially 0% in hood vs GtD not-0% out of hood.

But good catch all the same.

[jotheonah]

The phony math in DatSwan’s argument is the implicit assumption that scum in the hood and no scum in the hood are equally likely. So when you say “why would we pick 33% OR 42% over 0% or whatever percent” that makes sense in a world where we have no idea whether there’s scum.

But that’s just lazy, just like all probability arguments are lazy, because we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not there’a scum in the hood, just like we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not someone is scum. We’re not choosing at random.

At the end of the day, I don’t care if we lynch inside or outside. We win by lynching the scummiest player. I still think that’s MiX, who made a blatant scumslip. But I also think that pst ost by Ash was an over the top appeal to emotion that screams scum. I mean look at that last sentence for crying out loud, it’s like a bad TV lawyer.

So both my top scumreads are consistent with a scum-in-the-hood theory. EFHW has her own reasons for thinking there’s scum in the hood and, again, they are better and more solid than brimless math.

So it is not brainless, it actually goes over literally all of the ranges based on all the potential set ups we could be in. If you mean it is brainless, as in so obvious anyone could do it, that is fair... but it’s purpose was to focus on the fact that there is never a 0% chance of finding skum outside the hood, but there is that possibility if we lynch inside the hood.

Do you hear yourself? A possibility of zero percent chance? That doesn’t mean anything. If you lynch me and you don’t know my alignment, there’s a possibility that there’s a zero percent chance I’m scum. Better not lynch anybody, I think there’s a posssibility of a zero percent chance that anybody’s town!

[Swowl]

The phony math in DatSwan’s argument is the implicit assumption that scum in the hood and no scum in the hood are equally likely. So when you say “why would we pick 33% OR 42% over 0% or whatever percent” that makes sense in a world where we have no idea whether there’s scum.

But that’s just lazy, just like all probability arguments are lazy, because we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not there’a scum in the hood, just like we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not someone is scum. We’re not choosing at random.

At the end of the day, I don’t care if we lynch inside or outside. We win by lynching the scummiest player. I still think that’s MiX, who made a blatant scumslip. But I also think that pst ost by Ash was an over the top appeal to emotion that screams scum. I mean look at that last sentence for crying out loud, it’s like a bad TV lawyer.

So both my top scumreads are consistent with a scum-in-the-hood theory. EFHW has her own reasons for thinking there’s scum in the hood and, again, they are better and more solid than brimless math.

So it is not brainless, it actually goes over literally all of the ranges based on all the potential set ups we could be in. If you mean it is brainless, as in so obvious anyone could do it, that is fair... but it’s purpose was to focus on the fact that there is never a 0% chance of finding skum outside the hood, but there is that possibility if we lynch inside the hood.

Do you hear yourself? A possibility of zero percent chance? That doesn’t mean anything. If you lynch me and you don’t know my alignment, there’s a possibility that there’s a zero percent chance I’m scum. Better not lynch anybody, I think there’s a posssibility of a zero percent chance that anybody’s town!

What?
It is not vague assumptions i am making here.

There is literally a chance we have a 0% chance of finding skum over 3 people in the hood.
There is literally a minimum if 3 skum aligned players outside of the hood.

Math is math is math and you can take whatever stance you want on it. We have a better chance of finding skum outside the hood rather than in.
From my perspective, i know that i am town. So, if skum is in the hood that means either EFHW or Ashes is skum. So why the hell are they the two with votes on them and i don’t have any? There is no skum in this damn hood -open your eyes up man.

[jotheonah]

The phony math in DatSwan’s argument is the implicit assumption that scum in the hood and no scum in the hood are equally likely. So when you say “why would we pick 33% OR 42% over 0% or whatever percent” that makes sense in a world where we have no idea whether there’s scum.

But that’s just lazy, just like all probability arguments are lazy, because we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not there’a scum in the hood, just like we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not someone is scum. We’re not choosing at random.

At the end of the day, I don’t care if we lynch inside or outside. We win by lynching the scummiest player. I still think that’s MiX, who made a blatant scumslip. But I also think that pst ost by Ash was an over the top appeal to emotion that screams scum. I mean look at that last sentence for crying out loud, it’s like a bad TV lawyer.

So both my top scumreads are consistent with a scum-in-the-hood theory. EFHW has her own reasons for thinking there’s scum in the hood and, again, they are better and more solid than brimless math.

So it is not brainless, it actually goes over literally all of the ranges based on all the potential set ups we could be in. If you mean it is brainless, as in so obvious anyone could do it, that is fair... but it’s purpose was to focus on the fact that there is never a 0% chance of finding skum outside the hood, but there is that possibility if we lynch inside the hood.

Do you hear yourself? A possibility of zero percent chance? That doesn’t mean anything. If you lynch me and you don’t know my alignment, there’s a possibility that there’s a zero percent chance I’m scum. Better not lynch anybody, I think there’s a posssibility of a zero percent chance that anybody’s town!

What?
It is not vague assumptions i am making here.

There is literally a chance we have a 0% chance of finding skum over 3 people in the hood.
There is literally a minimum if 3 skum aligned players outside of the hood.

Math is math is math and you can take whatever stance you want on it. We have a better chance of finding skum outside the hood rather than in.
From my perspective, i know that i am town. So, if skum is in the hood that means either EFHW or Ashes is skum. So why the hell are they the two with votes on them and i don’t have any? There is no skum in this damn hood -open your eyes up man.

Ok, let me take a random group of three players, say me, MiX, and Glooble. There is literally a chance we have a 0% chance of finding skum over 3 people in the group I just made up. So that group is off limits too now!

That's how you sound. The fact is that anybody could be skum at this point, so our best chance of lynching scum is lynching the person who we think is the scummiest.

I'm not denying that, if we were choosing at random, our chance to hit would be better outside the neighborhood. That math checks out. But we're not choosing at random and I'm saying that I care way more about our reads than about the math here, and I think you are way overstating the advantage we gain by lynching outside the hood.

[silverspawn]

It does indeed mean something. If there's a 3/4 chance that scum is in the neighborhood, and if it is there's a 1/3 chance to lynch scum when lynching in the neighborhood, and if not there's a 0% chance of that, then the total chance to lynch scum when lynching in the neighborhood is 1/3  * 3/4 = 1/4. This is lower than 1/3, obviously. The chance for 0% chance matters.

But since two people in the neighborhood are super towny, it actually looks much better than that.

[silverspawn]

I should really preview these posts before posting. EBWOP:


It does indeed mean something. If there's a 3/4 chance that scum is in the neighborhood, and if lynching itnh has 1/3 chance of hitting scum if there is scum inth and 0% otherwise, then the total chance to lynch scum when lynching itn is 1/3  * 3/4 = 1/4. This is lower than 1/3, obviously. The chance for 0% chance matters.

But since two people in the neighborhood are super towny, it actually looks much better than that.

[Swowl]

It does indeed mean something. If there's a 3/4 chance that scum is in the neighborhood, and if it is there's a 1/3 chance to lynch scum when lynching in the neighborhood, and if not there's a 0% chance of that, then the total chance to lynch scum when lynching in the neighborhood is 1/3  * 3/4 = 1/4. This is lower than 1/3, obviously. The chance for 0% chance matters.

But since two people in the neighborhood are super towny, it actually looks much better than that.

Right it is lower, but there is still NOT a chance there is no skum outside the hood while there is still a chance of no skum inside.
Whatever it feels like semantics at this point and honestly with 12 hours or whatever left i need to stop focusing on this and evidently find someone other than MCMC.

[jotheonah]

I'm just saying that there's a world of difference between a 0% chance and a chance of a 0% chance. And if we don't specify the percent chance of the 0% chance (which DatSwan has not done in making his argument), we're not saying anything particularly helpful or meaningful. Now if you said "There's a 99% chance of a 0% chance" or "There's a 1% chance of a 0% chance" then that would be worthwhile.

[jotheonah]

It does indeed mean something. If there's a 3/4 chance that scum is in the neighborhood, and if it is there's a 1/3 chance to lynch scum when lynching in the neighborhood, and if not there's a 0% chance of that, then the total chance to lynch scum when lynching in the neighborhood is 1/3  * 3/4 = 1/4. This is lower than 1/3, obviously. The chance for 0% chance matters.

But since two people in the neighborhood are super towny, it actually looks much better than that.

Right it is lower, but there is still NOT a chance there is no skum outside the hood while there is still a chance of no skum inside.
Whatever it feels like semantics at this point and honestly with 12 hours or whatever left i need to stop focusing on this and evidently find someone other than MCMC.

I like Glooble's silver case. By the way, are we in prod request territory for mcmc?

[silverspawn]

I don't think that means anything beyond how it affects the probability. I mean if there was a 90% chance of the neighborhood being 2/3 scum and a 10% chance of it being all town, we'd lynch in the neighborhood immediately. What matters is how likely you actually are to hit scum. The no-scum-in-neighborhood thing decreases that probability and that's it.

[silverspawn]

I like Glooble's silver case.

hooooooooooow it makes no seeeeeense

[MiX]

Do we not want to kill mcmc?

I'll be here around deadline, will sheep ss/mcmc/pubby/maybe-Glooble. Will probably reread in this order at night.

[silverspawn]

please tell me you don't believe the "propose massclaim to avoid PGO" part.

[MiX]

please tell me you don't believe the "propose massclaim to avoid PGO" part.

No that doesn't make any sense IMO, we all know that the problem with the massclaim is scum hits good roles everytime instead of randomly and traitor/third-party can claim VT to dodge the killing spree. We don't even know if there's a PGO, and if there is it might kill the bodyguard (or the other PRs).

You asked me right?

[EFHW]

I like Glooble's silver case.

hooooooooooow it makes no seeeeeense

I know it's not true.

[silverspawn]

No, I asked joth, but your answer was no less welcome.

What other parts of the case do you think have merit? Since you changed your read from town to possibly scum.

[EFHW]

vote: ashersky

My outside the neighborhood choice would be MiX.

[jotheonah]

vote: ashersky

My outside the neighborhood choice would be MiX.

Good luck.

[MiX]

No, I asked joth, but your answer was no less welcome.

What other parts of the case do you think have merit? Since you changed your read from town to possibly scum.

So from what I remember (it's very late and my brain doesn't work as well) joth said that lynching inside hood is what scum would do if there's no scum in hood, for obvious reasons. Scum would also like a massclaim so they can seperate traitor/third-party from town without risk since they can claim whatever and it won't really give any true information. Both of these, combined with the fact that I thought you were non-VT from the way you answered (and that you did a thing I know scum loves to do, but for you I'm not sure if it's scummy) I think you can be scum. Then there's the fact that Glooble/joth/gkrieg are towny, E's also slightly more towny, pps is...well...nothing, pubby's not getting lynched (there's nothing on him) and thus I want you or mcmc to be lynched.

vote: ashersky

My outside the neighborhood choice would be MiX.

Good luck.

Am I town? I forgot.

[silverspawn]

So from what I remember (it's very late and my brain doesn't work as well) joth said that lynching inside hood is what scum would do if there's no scum in hood, for obvious reasons. Scum would also like a massclaim so they can seperate traitor/third-party from town without risk since they can claim whatever and it won't really give any true information. Both of these, combined with the fact that I thought you were non-VT from the way you answered (and that you did a thing I know scum loves to do, but for you I'm not sure if it's scummy) I think you can be scum.

Ok thank you. I'm totally town though.

Sure scum would want to lynch in the neighborhood if there was no scum in the neighborhood. But town also wants to lynch in the neighborhood for the reasons I listed. I think they're quite good. So if both town and scum would do it, it should be NAI.

Why does the weird third party thing matter? You said defensiveness is a scum tell for me and I said no because I happened to know that I was just being defensive as town. That seems like totally benign.

Then there's the fact that Glooble/joth/gkrieg are towny, E's also slightly more towny, pps is...well...nothing, pubby's not getting lynched (there's nothing on him) and thus I want you or mcmc to be lynched.

Yeah I know right? Everyone is towny this game. I'll totally grant you that the POE is strong this game.

But ash. The ash. Lynch the ashes.

[silverspawn]

Quote fail but you'll get the message anyway.

[Glooble]

Seriously through I’m finding ash to be the towniest in the neighborhood so someone please explain why you all think he’s scum.