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Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 154798 times)

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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #825 on: June 17, 2019, 11:31:14 am »


Are you a VT?

What possible reason could you have for asking that?

more importantly, how would answering that possibly be a good idea?

The only reason I unvoted ss D1 was because they essencially said they were a third-party. Given what I know of ss that made perfect sense so I backed off. The fact that they aren't means they're either scum or town that has already answered this question, so I want to know which ss we're dealing with here.

Unless someone doesn't know what ss is, in which case there might be scum that don't either, so the question's anti-town.

I don't think the neighbors a good pick (although the fact they are neighbors is helpful in a reread).

Just as a note when you're rereading I don't believe the neighbors knew each other's identities until night 1.

faust is this correct?

That's a good piece of correct information right there.
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faust

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #826 on: June 17, 2019, 11:52:40 am »

I don't think the neighbors a good pick (although the fact they are neighbors is helpful in a reread).

Just as a note when you're rereading I don't believe the neighbors knew each other's identities until night 1.

faust is this correct?
Yes.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #827 on: June 17, 2019, 12:05:52 pm »

ok, but neighbor scum have had the opportunity to tell non-neighbor scum who their neighbors are, right? My last post sorta depends on that.
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #828 on: June 17, 2019, 12:07:18 pm »

ok, but neighbor scum have had the opportunity to tell non-neighbor scum who their neighbors are, right? My last post sorta depends on that.

Yes, in night 1, why is this important?
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #829 on: June 17, 2019, 12:57:47 pm »

The only reason I unvoted ss D1 was because they essencially said they were a third-party.

I did no such thing. What quote are you referring to?

jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #830 on: June 17, 2019, 01:33:18 pm »

ok, but neighbor scum have had the opportunity to tell non-neighbor scum who their neighbors are, right? My last post sorta depends on that.

Yes, in night 1, why is this important?

You ever think about just reading all my posts?
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #831 on: June 17, 2019, 01:33:46 pm »

Here's another way to think about it:

How bad is it for scum if they do have one person in the neighborhood and we lynch within the neighborhood?
How good is it for them if the neighborhood is all town and we lynch within the neighborhood?

I think if B were true we'd have someone strongly advocating for that, since it guarantees a waste of several lynches AND keeps the lynch from hitting the traitor in the event that mafia doesn't know who they are (the traitor can't be a neighbor, right?). I think if A were true we'd see someone strongly advocating for lynching outside the neighborhood, since even though 1/3 = 3/9 mathematically, in reality having six options for mislynch is very much preferably to having 2, especially when one of those two is EFHW, who everyone seems to be generally townreading.

Anyway, what we've seen is nobody, except maybe silver, pushing particularly hard for lynching in neighborhood. DatSwan, gkrieg, and MiX have all advocated somewhat strongly for lynching outside of it.

PPE: a whole bunch
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #832 on: June 17, 2019, 01:40:43 pm »

ok, but neighbor scum have had the opportunity to tell non-neighbor scum who their neighbors are, right? My last post sorta depends on that.

Yes, in night 1, why is this important?

You ever think about just reading all my posts?

To be fair, I did read your last post. Also the post you just quoted is a big mess with As and Bs and non-yes-or-no questions followed with "if X were true/false", so you can't expect me to understand everything you're saying in it. And how does scum knowing neighbors N1 impact this? They can solidify their stance on neighbor lynching after they were revealed.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #833 on: June 17, 2019, 01:44:14 pm »

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

The sooner you out them, the faster we can start considering them.

Joth's one of them, and I suspect the other's pubby? Maaaaaybe ss/pps. So if I can figure this out surely scum can, I don't see why you would scumread them and not out them.

Can we talk about whether or not this is a scumslip?

I think a town player would make some mental notes when they see the following post:

@MiX, what is your question? We had a consensus on the vig.

That answers it. Did you propose that idea or had it in mind before N1?

I started with Glooble and joth. One person was hesitant about Glooble and suggested MiX. I didn't want MiX and brought up Eddie. There was consensus from there. The third neighbor didn't suggest or object to anyone. The ease of the consensus made me worry that Eddie was town, but I decided that a scum neighbor could be uncomfortable objecting to a partner. I also couldn't change the target on my own and didn't know the motivations of the non-scum neighbor.

Both felt strongly that we shouldn't claim. I didn't say anything one way or the other.

The way things happened made me concerned that there was indeed scum in the neighborhood and that is why I claimed.

But MiX is convinced I'm a member of the neighborhood. There's no way that's an honest town mistake, because the evidence against it is front and center.

On the other hand, assuming scum!MiX already knew who was in the neighborhood, that would explain why that post didn't register with him and he made that mistake.

vote: MiX
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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #834 on: June 17, 2019, 01:44:38 pm »

Here's another way to think about it:

How bad is it for scum if they do have one person in the neighborhood and we lynch within the neighborhood?
How good is it for them if the neighborhood is all town and we lynch within the neighborhood?

I think if B were true we'd have someone strongly advocating for that, since it guarantees a waste of several lynches AND keeps the lynch from hitting the traitor in the event that mafia doesn't know who they are (the traitor can't be a neighbor, right?). I think if A were true we'd see someone strongly advocating for lynching outside the neighborhood, since even though 1/3 = 3/9 mathematically, in reality having six options for mislynch is very much preferably to having 2, especially when one of those two is EFHW, who everyone seems to be generally townreading.

Anyway, what we've seen is nobody, except maybe silver, pushing particularly hard for lynching in neighborhood. DatSwan, gkrieg, and MiX have all advocated somewhat strongly for lynching outside of it.

PPE: a whole bunch

These are good points. I thought there were fewer than 12 people alive, and that we would have better chances lynching outside the neighborhood. Given that I'm not in the neighborhood, there are still higher chances of hitting scum outside the neighborhood for me (which includes the chance of there being a traitor, which I think is the most likely role for 3rd party to choose in this setup).

More than anything, I was just arguing that silver's plan (from a long time ago, when it wasn't really a plan, just speculation before we knew who was in the neighborhood) that it was better to lynch from the neighborhood because when we lynch scum we have a bunch of ICs isn't that great of a plan. There are too many variables and at best, we get one IC. At this point, we would basically just get EFHW as an IC if we were to lynch scum in the neighborhood (which there isn't necessarily), which I would argue is not that big of a deal seeing as she is already pretty townie to everyone.

Hopefully that makes sense.

I also townread ash and EFHW, but am not sure that Datswan is all that scummy either. I think he would be the scum in there if there is one due to POE, but there are scummier people outside the neighborhood.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #835 on: June 17, 2019, 01:45:59 pm »

ok, but neighbor scum have had the opportunity to tell non-neighbor scum who their neighbors are, right? My last post sorta depends on that.

Yes, in night 1, why is this important?

You ever think about just reading all my posts?

To be fair, I did read your last post. Also the post you just quoted is a big mess with As and Bs and non-yes-or-no questions followed with "if X were true/false", so you can't expect me to understand everything you're saying in it. And how does scum knowing neighbors N1 impact this? They can solidify their stance on neighbor lynching after they were revealed.

Hopefully my post above answers your question. It's very relevant because it confirms to me that you scumslipped.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #836 on: June 17, 2019, 01:46:44 pm »

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

The sooner you out them, the faster we can start considering them.

Joth's one of them, and I suspect the other's pubby? Maaaaaybe ss/pps. So if I can figure this out surely scum can, I don't see why you would scumread them and not out them.

Can we talk about whether or not this is a scumslip?

I think a town player would make some mental notes when they see the following post:

@MiX, what is your question? We had a consensus on the vig.

That answers it. Did you propose that idea or had it in mind before N1?

I started with Glooble and joth. One person was hesitant about Glooble and suggested MiX. I didn't want MiX and brought up Eddie. There was consensus from there. The third neighbor didn't suggest or object to anyone. The ease of the consensus made me worry that Eddie was town, but I decided that a scum neighbor could be uncomfortable objecting to a partner. I also couldn't change the target on my own and didn't know the motivations of the non-scum neighbor.

Both felt strongly that we shouldn't claim. I didn't say anything one way or the other.

The way things happened made me concerned that there was indeed scum in the neighborhood and that is why I claimed.

But MiX is convinced I'm a member of the neighborhood. There's no way that's an honest town mistake, because the evidence against it is front and center.

On the other hand, assuming scum!MiX already knew who was in the neighborhood, that would explain why that post didn't register with him and he made that mistake.

vote: MiX

Not sure if this is a scum slip, but it does impact my null read on MiX.
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #837 on: June 17, 2019, 01:48:54 pm »

ok, but neighbor scum have had the opportunity to tell non-neighbor scum who their neighbors are, right? My last post sorta depends on that.

Yes, in night 1, why is this important?

You ever think about just reading all my posts?

To be fair, I did read your last post. Also the post you just quoted is a big mess with As and Bs and non-yes-or-no questions followed with "if X were true/false", so you can't expect me to understand everything you're saying in it. And how does scum knowing neighbors N1 impact this? They can solidify their stance on neighbor lynching after they were revealed.

Hopefully my post above answers your question. It's very relevant because it confirms to me that you scumslipped.

Oh, so it's relevent not for the previous post, but for the future post, I see.

So I read the post, and your case. I'm assuming the "scumslip" is I didn't see EFHW mention that she wanted joth to be vigged? I'm 100% positive a later post of mine acknowledges that I saw that when naming the neighbor.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #838 on: June 17, 2019, 01:51:38 pm »

Townish:
efhw, ash, silver (I always read him opposite of what he is and it scares me)

Nullish:
joth, 2.7, pps, Glooble

Scummier than null, nullier than scum:
MiX, DatSwan, mcmc, pubby

Scummish:
Need to really reread, because I can't remember people well enough for them to be fully scummish
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #839 on: June 17, 2019, 01:52:51 pm »

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

The sooner you out them, the faster we can start considering them.

Joth's one of them, and I suspect the other's pubby? Maaaaaybe ss/pps. So if I can figure this out surely scum can, I don't see why you would scumread them and not out them.

Joth wanted to vig... himself?

I suppose EFHW wouldn't suggest someone in it, but the way she said the second person didn't want Glooble and said nothing about joth seems like it would be joth. Just wild guessing, which is something scum can do better knowing 4 people that cannot be in the neighborhood. Regardless, scumreading neighbors is pointless if they aren't revealed.

This is the post you're talking about. So your defense is that you honestly thought the three people in the neighborhood were discussing possible targets (for a kill that requires majority consensus) and included one of their own in that discussion? That's pretty weak.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #840 on: June 17, 2019, 01:55:23 pm »

Townish:
efhw, ash, silver (I always read him opposite of what he is and it scares me)

Nullish:
joth, 2.7, pps, Glooble

Scummier than null, nullier than scum:
MiX, DatSwan, mcmc, pubby

Scummish:
Need to really reread, because I can't remember people well enough for them to be fully scummish

Actually from their reads on each other, I put the twins a little bit townier than nullish. Datswan is also just barely in the scummier than null camp, but most of that is due to me townreading the others in the neighborhood and if anyone is scum in the neighborhood, it's Datswan I think.
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #841 on: June 17, 2019, 01:59:49 pm »

@Mix, I want to know where you thought I said that I was third party.

The degree to which that scum slip is not a scum slip is quite enormous.

MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #842 on: June 17, 2019, 02:00:29 pm »

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

The sooner you out them, the faster we can start considering them.

Joth's one of them, and I suspect the other's pubby? Maaaaaybe ss/pps. So if I can figure this out surely scum can, I don't see why you would scumread them and not out them.

Joth wanted to vig... himself?

I suppose EFHW wouldn't suggest someone in it, but the way she said the second person didn't want Glooble and said nothing about joth seems like it would be joth. Just wild guessing, which is something scum can do better knowing 4 people that cannot be in the neighborhood. Regardless, scumreading neighbors is pointless if they aren't revealed.

This is the post you're talking about. So your defense is that you honestly thought the three people in the neighborhood were discussing possible targets (for a kill that requires majority consensus) and included one of their own in that discussion? That's pretty weak.

It doesn't fit your narrative, that's for sure. Unless I didn't notice and then noticed it immediatly and decided to rectify it? Sounds like a weak case.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #843 on: June 17, 2019, 02:05:38 pm »

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

The sooner you out them, the faster we can start considering them.

Joth's one of them, and I suspect the other's pubby? Maaaaaybe ss/pps. So if I can figure this out surely scum can, I don't see why you would scumread them and not out them.

Joth wanted to vig... himself?

I suppose EFHW wouldn't suggest someone in it, but the way she said the second person didn't want Glooble and said nothing about joth seems like it would be joth. Just wild guessing, which is something scum can do better knowing 4 people that cannot be in the neighborhood. Regardless, scumreading neighbors is pointless if they aren't revealed.

This is the post you're talking about. So your defense is that you honestly thought the three people in the neighborhood were discussing possible targets (for a kill that requires majority consensus) and included one of their own in that discussion? That's pretty weak.

It doesn't fit your narrative, that's for sure. Unless I didn't notice and then noticed it immediatly and decided to rectify it? Sounds like a weak case.

Haha nice try, but as you can see above you came up with that after Glooble pointed out your mistake, so my narrative works fine.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #844 on: June 17, 2019, 02:06:06 pm »

The degree to which that scum slip is not a scum slip is quite enormous.

And why is that? Tell me how town makes that mistake.
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #845 on: June 17, 2019, 02:07:38 pm »

The degree to which that scum slip is not a scum slip is quite enormous.

And why is that? Tell me how town makes that mistake.

They don't read EFHW's post properly.

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #846 on: June 17, 2019, 02:10:45 pm »

The degree to which that scum slip is not a scum slip is quite enormous.

And why is that? Tell me how town makes that mistake.

They don't read EFHW's post properly.

So MiX is town who is sincerely interested in guessing who's in the neighborhood, but doesn't take the time to carefully read the ONE post that contains clues to who's in the neighborhood? You must not think much of MiX's play abilities.
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #847 on: June 17, 2019, 02:11:15 pm »

This defensiveness is, however.

No.

For me this said "it's not scummy because third-pary/PRs want to defend themselves too", otherwise you would've written much more.

Haha nice try, but as you can see above you came up with that after Glooble pointed out your mistake, so my narrative works fine.

In other news I can read and arrive at the same conclusion from reading the same things, no need to point this out. But you have a narrative to push, so fine. Yes, this is true, this is obviously true, and if you ever try to say that scum!me would say what I said above hoping people would forget Glooble's the one that questioned it then you have the polar opposite of what I do as scum. Or anyone, really, who would do this on purpose?

The degree to which that scum slip is not a scum slip is quite enormous.

And why is that? Tell me how town makes that mistake.

They don't read EFHW's post properly.

I did read it, and I thought not mentioning what the second person (ash) thought of joth meant it was joth.
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #848 on: June 17, 2019, 02:14:15 pm »

The degree to which that scum slip is not a scum slip is quite enormous.

And why is that? Tell me how town makes that mistake.

They don't read EFHW's post properly.

So MiX is town who is sincerely interested in guessing who's in the neighborhood, but doesn't take the time to carefully read the ONE post that contains clues to who's in the neighborhood? You must not think much of MiX's play abilities.

All I can say is that this could easily happen to me.

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #849 on: June 17, 2019, 02:14:48 pm »

Yes, this is true, this is obviously true, and if you ever try to say that scum!me would say what I said above hoping people would forget Glooble's the one that questioned it then you have the polar opposite of what I do as scum. Or anyone, really, who would do this on purpose?

So what WOULD scum!you post in response to Glooble catching your mistake? I think what you posted is a decent attempt at covering.
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