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Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 13982 times)

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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #775 on: June 17, 2019, 03:47:09 am »

If they want to cooperate a little bit but don't want to reveal themselves, then VT. That's definitely better for us than PR.
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #776 on: June 17, 2019, 03:59:45 am »

So a scum-aligned 3rd party, be it a traitor or survivor who thinks mafia is the way to go can also mess with your plan, not just the actual scum? 

Cool. Cool cool cool.
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year

Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

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Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
Scum: 22 Games, 13 Wins
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #777 on: June 17, 2019, 04:48:19 am »

In other news, a player who helps mafia is bad for town.
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #778 on: June 17, 2019, 05:24:19 am »

In other news, a player who helps mafia is bad for town.

To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today (and town gets NKd). It's not their fault either, we just enter a 5-5 if that happens. Then there's SK, which I suppose wouldn't do it but also cuts town's winrate by a lot, and traitor who has no choice.

So has everyone reached the "lynch outside the hood" scenario? Of those, who would we lynch? Can I remention our boy Glooble, sitting there scumreading Swan for literally nothing alignment indicative (and even pushing ADK for something from a previous game) all of day 1?
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I donít think even MiX is townreading MiX.

silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #779 on: June 17, 2019, 05:26:49 am »

To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today

No. That depends on the survivor. Some survivors don't just have winning as a goal, but would rather win with town.

So has everyone reached the "lynch outside the hood" scenario?

No no no. We lynch DatSwan or ash
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faust

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #780 on: June 17, 2019, 05:27:37 am »

Vote Count 2.4

jotheonah (2): 2.71828....., gkrieg13
MiX (2): jotheonah, Glooble
mcmcsalot (2): DatSwan, silverspawn
Glooble (1): MiX
ashersky (1): pubby

Not Voting (4): mcmcsalot, EFHW, ashersky, pingpongsam

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on June 19, 2019, 10:10:00 am.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #781 on: June 17, 2019, 05:27:41 am »

Two people in the neighborhood said they wanted to lynch outside of the neighborhood and that swayed your opinion?
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #782 on: June 17, 2019, 05:32:41 am »

To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today

No. That depends on the survivor. Some survivors don't just have winning as a goal, but would rather win with town.

If they want to win, they'll...want to win. It's much safer. I'm not even going to attempt to see a scenario where someone doesn't take the winning move.

Two people in the neighborhood said they wanted to lynch outside of the neighborhood and that swayed your opinion?

No, I always had this opinion.
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I donít think even MiX is townreading MiX.

ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #783 on: June 17, 2019, 05:41:10 am »

To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today

No. That depends on the survivor. Some survivors don't just have winning as a goal, but would rather win with town.

Then that's literally playing against your own wincon, which is crappy at the least and super crappy at the worst.  It also makes it hard for town to know how to make the right play.
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year

Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
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Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
Scum: 22 Games, 13 Wins
11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #784 on: June 17, 2019, 05:41:30 am »

Two people in the neighborhood said they wanted to lynch outside of the neighborhood and that swayed your opinion?

Which two people in the hood said that?
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year

Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
Scum: 22 Games, 13 Wins
11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #785 on: June 17, 2019, 05:43:49 am »

I'm getting a stronger and stronger feeling that SS is scum leading this game to a scum win.

A plan to out all town PRs with tons of holes in it pointed out by multiple players which he continually ignores.
Blatant mischaracterizations of some players' statements.
A seemingly misleading push to tie the PR outing plan to lynching within the neighborhood.

Remember, scum already knows everything.  Scum can plan accordingly, or even make the plan.  SS is posting like he already knows everything.
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year

Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
Scum: 22 Games, 13 Wins
11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #786 on: June 17, 2019, 05:44:53 am »

In other news, a player who helps mafia is bad for town.

And yet, how will we know who that player is?  Oh right, we won't, which is why your you can't sufficiently account for it, or any other anti-town actions taken in your plan.
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year

Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
Scum: 22 Games, 13 Wins
11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #787 on: June 17, 2019, 06:01:34 am »

Two people in the neighborhood said they wanted to lynch outside of the neighborhood and that swayed your opinion?

Which two people in the hood said that?

DatSwan and  I thought you said it, too, but I could be wrong.

To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today

No. That depends on the survivor. Some survivors don't just have winning as a goal, but would rather win with town.

Then that's literally playing against your own wincon, which is crappy at the least and super crappy at the worst.  It also makes it hard for town to know how to make the right play.

Whether or not you disapprove of it, there are people who don't just play for their own wincon as survivor. I know because I'm one of them. This is documented.

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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #788 on: June 17, 2019, 06:04:32 am »

The reason I'm not laying out in detail how creating buckets benefits town is that I would have to go in detail and that might help scum make better decisions during the massclaim.

The benefits should really be obvious. You guys have all played mafia before. We get claims, we analyze them, we find things that are suspicious. Most of the time scum doesn't play perfectly and claims themselves into a bad scenario. Most likely we end up with a situation where we have several subsets of players and can say with fairly high confidence that one scum is in each. We find them, we get ICs. There's a reason why sensor is never used; creating these kinds of sets is too strong for PR.
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #789 on: June 17, 2019, 06:05:58 am »

I admit that I have considered you being scum based on not seeing that claiming is a good idea, but the more benign explanation is that your intuition is wrong.
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #790 on: June 17, 2019, 06:15:38 am »

I both like claims in general and readily concede that there are benefits to your claiming plan.

My contention (intuition) is that this specific plan (VT/not-VT claiming) is too easily manipulated by scum AND an unknown third party (unless you are the survivor who wants to win with town even if that means you lose, so that's why you feel so sure?).

Do you see any world in which you want to lynch anyone from outside the hood?  Because if not, there's no reason to claim, as there are no possible counterclaims, so nothing to really lynch on.

So those are my points.  Seems too easily manipulated and seems to have no impact on a neighborhood lynch.  It's probably has some utility if we are lynching outside of the hood?  But I doubt it.

At any rate, you definitely don't have consensus, right or wrong.  I assume more voices will come?  Or lurkers will just lurk it out.
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year

Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
Scum: 22 Games, 13 Wins
11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #791 on: June 17, 2019, 06:18:14 am »

The reason I'm not laying out in detail how creating buckets benefits town is that I would have to go in detail and that might help scum make better decisions during the massclaim.

The benefits should really be obvious. You guys have all played mafia before. We get claims, we analyze them, we find things that are suspicious. Most of the time scum doesn't play perfectly and claims themselves into a bad scenario. Most likely we end up with a situation where we have several subsets of players and can say with fairly high confidence that one scum is in each. We find them, we get ICs. There's a reason why sensor is never used; creating these kinds of sets is too strong for PR.

There's 5 people fakeclaiming. We don't know how many PRs there are, but scum does. Groups will most likely have more than 1 scum in them. We can't fully determine how much scum are in each group unless they seriously screw it up. This basically gives scum a bunch of information while giving town very little to work with. I can't see how this seperation of players helps lynching scum.

PPE: Oh you want to lynch in hood? What's your top scumread there?
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silverspawn

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #792 on: June 17, 2019, 06:26:02 am »

clearly, there is no unity on the claiming plan, so we don't claim today. Let's just lynch whoever is scummiest then.

PPE: Oh you want to lynch in hood? What's your top scumread there?

ash or datswan. I'll tell you after an ISO of datswan that will occur at an uknonwn point before the deadline.
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #793 on: June 17, 2019, 07:48:02 am »

MiX seems towny today, mostly due to SS.  That's...so strange.

I was scumreading from D1 into N1.

Maybe it's the overt sheeping/lack of self-confidence in the MiX posts recently?
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year

Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
Scum: 22 Games, 13 Wins
11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #794 on: June 17, 2019, 08:15:28 am »

MiX seems towny today, mostly due to SS.  That's...so strange.

I was scumreading from D1 into N1.

Maybe it's the overt sheeping/lack of self-confidence in the MiX posts recently?

I found MiX scummy day 1, but I gave him a pass because I *always* scumread him, and he wasn't acting significantly *more* scummy than the baseline.

Today he's been giving off an even scummier vibe, so I've decided just to go with my gut.

All this math stuff is giving me a bit of a headache, but I'm not particularly scumreading anyone in the neighborhood right now, so I guess I'm in favor of lynching outside the hood just sort of by default.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #795 on: June 17, 2019, 08:16:16 am »

Also not sure where you're getting lack of confidence- he seems pretty damn confident that I'm scum based on tissue paper evidence.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #796 on: June 17, 2019, 09:15:11 am »

Also not sure where you're getting lack of confidence- he seems pretty damn confident that I'm scum based on tissue paper evidence.

I think it just seems to me like he's deferring to SS on everything SS-related.

Maybe that's what I'm sensing.
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year

Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
Scum: 22 Games, 13 Wins
11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #797 on: June 17, 2019, 09:19:35 am »

I'm getting a stronger and stronger feeling that SS is scum leading this game to a scum win.

A plan to out all town PRs with tons of holes in it pointed out by multiple players which he continually ignores.
Blatant mischaracterizations of some players' statements.
A seemingly misleading push to tie the PR outing plan to lynching within the neighborhood.

Remember, scum already knows everything.  Scum can plan accordingly, or even make the plan.  SS is posting like he already knows everything.

Ok but, does scum actually ever do this? I feel like I am very susceptible to suspecting that a town person who is leading is scum... but I canít recall ever actually seeing it. IRL, scum is almost always sitting back and playing reactively, since itís so hard to know how town will react to a claiming plan.
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jotheonah

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #798 on: June 17, 2019, 09:21:35 am »

And furthermore, ďclaim pushing is scummyĒ isnít an argument Iíd expect from town!ash who is usually such a grounded realist when I suggest that scum is doing a crazy gambit. So that post really makes me want to vote: ash.

I still think that if there turns out to be scum in the neighborhood I want to lynch MiX next.
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MiX

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #799 on: June 17, 2019, 09:38:22 am »

Also not sure where you're getting lack of confidence- he seems pretty damn confident that I'm scum based on tissue paper evidence.

I think it just seems to me like he's deferring to SS on everything SS-related.

Maybe that's what I'm sensing.

I'm against claiming *and* against lynching in hood. So what do you mean by this?

And furthermore, ďclaim pushing is scummyĒ isnít an argument Iíd expect from town!ash who is usually such a grounded realist when I suggest that scum is doing a crazy gambit. So that post really makes me want to vote: ash.

I still think that if there turns out to be scum in the neighborhood I want to lynch MiX next.

Isn't it easier to lynch non-town outside the hood regardless? There's at least 3 scum out of 9 here, sounds better than hood. And scum would just start "scumreading" someone in it? You know, like what you're doing? But I like your case.
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