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Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 15952 times)

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DatSwan

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1400 on: July 07, 2019, 10:03:59 pm »

What is it that you asked Faust?
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1401 on: July 07, 2019, 11:13:03 pm »

I poised a hypothetical to see how the end game plays out for Reporter. Basically the same question you asked.
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year

Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1402 on: July 07, 2019, 11:23:49 pm »

Are we offering to help the reporter win?
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1403 on: July 08, 2019, 06:24:29 am »

I donít think the reporter can win at all. With town or scum.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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faust

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1404 on: July 08, 2019, 06:46:14 am »

Vote Count 5.1

pingpongsam (1): pubby

Not Voting (5): DatSwan, pingpongsam, EFHW, ashersky, Glooble

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 5 ends on July 10, 2019, 03:00:00 pm.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1405 on: July 08, 2019, 09:24:44 am »

Are we offering to help the reporter win?

I was thinking about it.

I donít think the reporter can win at all. With town or scum.

Can only win before town.  The only way to do that is to come forward, then we see if we want to get to a point where we can make it happen.

Although...it might require all neighbors to die first.
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year

Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1406 on: July 08, 2019, 09:38:41 am »

Are you assuming gkrieg was telling the truth when he said there are no other power roles? Because he was heavily incentivized to lie about that.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1407 on: July 08, 2019, 10:20:23 am »

If there is a survivor, you should claim now and you can win with scum.

If there is a second traitor, you should have claimed a long time ago.

If there is a reporter, we can help you win by helping you lynch and kill neighbors. That is basicallythe only way you win at this point is by cooperating with scum. If we no lynch today, we will kill a town neighbor. Then help us lynch the scum neighbor, then we will kill the other town neighbor. There are no other PRs. If we do this plan, you win and scum wins.

If you want me to lay out the plan better, I can.

I added the second bolding there. I missed this before. gkrieg is saying there is scum in the neighborhood?

"there are no other prs" means they chose scum neighbor, town randomly got neighbor as their pr, and scum didn't chose traitor knows mafia. It's true, we haven't seen any other town prs, but it's hard for me to imagine passing that up. Maybe they didn't trust the unknown traitor not to give them away? They also gave up daychat, which is both useful and makes the game more fun.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1408 on: July 08, 2019, 10:42:03 am »

If there is a PR outside the neighborhood, a mass claim will tell the tracker reporter that they are, in fact, endgamed. It creates a kingmaker situation. Do we want that?
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1409 on: July 08, 2019, 04:01:53 pm »

That wasn't a hypothetical. If we're going to do a claim we should really do it soon. If we're not going to do a claim lets take the 50/50 shot and lynch pingpongsam.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

He/ Him

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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1410 on: July 08, 2019, 11:24:27 pm »

That gkrieg post does seem to say thereís a scum neighbor. Does he slip or say it on purpose?

I think non neighbors should full claim at this point.
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year

Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
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Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
Scum: 22 Games, 13 Wins
11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

DatSwan

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1411 on: July 09, 2019, 12:22:44 am »

Yeah i can not see the downside in claims at this point.
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DatSwan

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1412 on: July 09, 2019, 02:30:02 am »

If there is a survivor, you should claim now and you can win with scum.

If there is a second traitor, you should have claimed a long time ago.

If there is a reporter, we can help you win by helping you lynch and kill neighbors. That is basicallythe only way you win at this point is by cooperating with scum. If we no lynch today, we will kill a town neighbor. Then help us lynch the scum neighbor, then we will kill the other town neighbor. There are no other PRs. If we do this plan, you win and scum wins.

If you want me to lay out the plan better, I can.

I added the second bolding there. I missed this before. gkrieg is saying there is scum in the neighborhood?

"there are no other prs" means they chose scum neighbor, town randomly got neighbor as their pr, and scum didn't chose traitor knows mafia. It's true, we haven't seen any other town prs, but it's hard for me to imagine passing that up. Maybe they didn't trust the unknown traitor not to give them away? They also gave up daychat, which is both useful and makes the game more fun.

I agree with your reasoning, but in a different sense. If GK knew how many roles were out there, the remaining possibilities are -

1) They picked Mafia in Hood only - This is the idea he is putting forth to the Reporter. There is one Hood to start, then Mafia gets added, from that pick the only other role that is added is Town Hood. No PRs. Just Mafia in Hood and Town in Hood.

2) They did not pick Mafia in Hood, but they picked something - He took a shot, probably knowing he was going down. In the process of doing so he also laid the crumb to make us suspect there is Mafia in Hood. It would of played out like "Reporter claims, GK+Reporter vote Town Player, other skum follow". Safe, and possible... as we were all suspicious of a Mafia in the Hood with 3 there anyways.

3) They did not pick Mafia in Hood, or anything else - Makes no sense. Why would he out himself? Even if it was Survivor in play, there could only be a max of 2 Hood players if they did not pick something. So a 0% chance of there being a Reporter.


I have one more idea I need to read back on first, but it makes me think we are pretty certainly at 1 Traitor and 1 Skum in Hood.

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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1413 on: July 09, 2019, 04:07:28 am »

I think gkrieg said it on purpose to protect the remaining scum. Earlier in the game,  gkrieg said he would absolutely choose scum in the neighborhood.  I think he was trying to do the same thing then. Their avoiding killing in the neighborhood was a similar tactic.

This would make you or ash survivor, or Glooble is not town. It would also mean they did pick one perk, maybe two. If we are all town then rng landed on neighbor both times.

My guess is that grieg wanted us to think scum was in the neighborhood,  ash is survivor, and they picked one perk.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1414 on: July 09, 2019, 06:02:38 am »

Do you want to set a claim order or do you want us to just claim now?
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1415 on: July 09, 2019, 06:25:00 am »

Iím a little concerned about time zones, given that the hood mostly seems active when Iím asleep and pps and pubby havenít been active at all.

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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

He/ Him

Check out my podcast: www.stppodcast.com

EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1416 on: July 09, 2019, 09:00:36 am »

pubby
pps
Glooble

But I think I know what they will say.
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1417 on: July 09, 2019, 09:03:11 am »

pubby
pps
Glooble

But I think I know what they will say.
What is the value in claiming here? There is some tiny chance we still have pgo or roleblocker.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1418 on: July 09, 2019, 09:25:55 am »

pubby
pps
Glooble

But I think I know what they will say.
What is the value in claiming here? There is some tiny chance we still have pgo or roleblocker.

I'm not sure how to answer that without giving the traitor advice on what to fake claim.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

He/ Him

Check out my podcast: www.stppodcast.com

ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1419 on: July 09, 2019, 10:09:49 am »

I agree with EFHW order.
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year

Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
Scum: 22 Games, 13 Wins
11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

pubby

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1420 on: July 09, 2019, 12:02:14 pm »

I don't feel motivated to claim other than say I am not the reporter.

I also don't understand why glooble is on that list. Does anyone honestly expect glooble? It feels like yall are just setting up for a reporter win, even if it's difficult for them to win at this point.
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1421 on: July 09, 2019, 12:05:50 pm »

"Motivated" is an interesting word to use here. What are your motivations?
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pubby

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1422 on: July 09, 2019, 01:50:46 pm »

to win, obviously  ::)
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1423 on: July 09, 2019, 02:31:48 pm »

to win, obviously  ::)
You don't seem interested in cooperating with town to get there.
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1424 on: July 09, 2019, 03:11:17 pm »

We got 24 hours. PPS, you around?
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

He/ Him

Check out my podcast: www.stppodcast.com
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