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Author Topic: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Town and Survivor win!)  (Read 156988 times)

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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1375 on: July 04, 2019, 03:52:04 pm »

Quote
Btw I do not see how scum Ash has been debunked

The theory you had that he was scum bc he didn't hammer you.
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1376 on: July 04, 2019, 10:23:27 pm »

Confirming something with mod before posting plan to win the game.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1377 on: July 05, 2019, 07:37:23 pm »

I am excited to be able to report that having reread DatSwan I do not want to lynch him. I'll reread ash next.
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1378 on: July 05, 2019, 07:52:03 pm »

ash is playing a very clean game. Nothing to pin on him.

so, Glooble, pps or pubby?

I don't think e's vote on pps is that meaningful. Given pps's low level of activity, e could easily have thought it was worth the bus to save himself over pps. Or he knew he would be lynched and was protecting his partner.

I think most scum would try to be at least a little more active than pps is being. I'll have to reread him and pubby, which shouldn't take long.

Glooble I've been treating as obv!town. Should probably look at him again, too.
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1379 on: July 06, 2019, 03:01:21 am »

Glooble E and GK were all and only three pushing my wagon day 1. I find it unlikely all three are skum (especially since 2 have flipped mafia, not traitor).
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1380 on: July 06, 2019, 03:07:03 am »

I do agree with pps/Pubby - and i think there is a chance it is both. Probably not - but still a chance.

I would like to vote lynch pps today.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1381 on: July 06, 2019, 10:51:21 am »

when is deadline? The vc says it was yesterday
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EFHW

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1382 on: July 06, 2019, 10:53:36 am »

I do agree with pps/Pubby - and i think there is a chance it is both. Probably not - but still a chance.

I would like to vote lynch pps today.
If you think Glooble is town but aren't sure both pps and pubby are scum, then I guess you are strongly suspecting me or ash? Can you say more?
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Glooble

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1383 on: July 06, 2019, 12:03:49 pm »

when is deadline? The vc says it was yesterday

It should be July 10th.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1384 on: July 06, 2019, 05:14:29 pm »

Yes, deadline is July 10 at 3:00 PM

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1385 on: July 06, 2019, 07:55:25 pm »

If a Traitor is recruited and then flips, they still flip traitor correct?
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1386 on: July 06, 2019, 08:01:56 pm »

I do agree with pps/Pubby - and i think there is a chance it is both. Probably not - but still a chance.

I would like to vote lynch pps today.
If you think Glooble is town but aren't sure both pps and pubby are scum, then I guess you are strongly suspecting me or ash? Can you say more?

So first off, just to repeat for clarity... I think there is a chance it could be PPS and Pubby. A chance. I think I put that chance under it being one of PPS/Pubby and then one of EFHW/Ashes, but it being both of PPS and Pubby is def not off the table for me.

Also... while I want to be clear that the primary reason (or potentially the only reason that matters today) in my wanting to lynch outside the Hood is what I said before (i.e. there must be skum outside, but not necessarily the other way around)... I can add at least that if forced to do so I would have an extremely hard time at this point choosing between you or ashes.

I know that is an unsatisfying answer. However, regardless of your alignment, I assume you can piece together why I would rather not say more that that right now in regards to you vs Ashes.

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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1387 on: July 06, 2019, 08:16:52 pm »

Hypothetical situation:

We have Glooble, PPS, and Pubby claim (don't do it, right now, just a hypo).

Everyone that is not those people - what order would you put them in?

I will go first, as I have already made it pretty clear - PPS > Pubby > Glooble



There is an idea behind this, please play along.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1388 on: July 06, 2019, 08:17:33 pm »

Ashes - you are approaching the skummy DL of saying you have a plan and not saying what it is man.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1389 on: July 06, 2019, 08:57:55 pm »

Quote from Set Up Post:
"- Tracker Reporter: Wins when all power roles are dead and they are still alive. If they win, they are removed from the game. Removes the Even-Night Tracker from town's list."


What happens if Town or Mafia meet there win condition(s) with power roles still alive? Would the Reporter win with the winning faction if there were still PR's alive? If Skum gets it to 2-2 tomorrow but one of the 3 town is the Reporter, that is a Mafia win even with the Reporter in play. So Skum wins... but what happens with Reporter? Also, in a situation where there is still a Hood member alive, but the Town meets there wincon with the Reporter alive... what happens?
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

pubby

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1390 on: July 06, 2019, 09:54:15 pm »

Doesn't claiming help 3rd party and mafia more than it helps town?...

vote: pps

I want to know who was in hood day 1. In my memory it's efhw and Ash. Scum would be misplaying if they did not inject a member into hood night 0. (Hint: it's obv Ash)

Can't post tomorrow gonna be traveling all dsy
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1391 on: July 06, 2019, 10:34:19 pm »

BTW thoughts on efhw everyone?
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1392 on: July 06, 2019, 10:45:08 pm »

Doesn't claiming help 3rd party and mafia more than it helps town?...

vote: pps

I want to know who was in hood day 1. In my memory it's efhw and Ash. Scum would be misplaying if they did not inject a member into hood night 0. (Hint: it's obv Ash)

Can't post tomorrow gonna be traveling all dsy

Clarification - that is not how the hood works. none of us knew how many, who, or any information about the Hood until Night 1. All we knew (at least for me I guess, so I assume everyone) is at the start of Day 1 that we were in the Hood.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1393 on: July 06, 2019, 10:51:02 pm »

Doesn't claiming help 3rd party and mafia more than it helps town?...

vote: pps

I want to know who was in hood day 1. In my memory it's efhw and Ash. Scum would be misplaying if they did not inject a member into hood night 0. (Hint: it's obv Ash)

Can't post tomorrow gonna be traveling all dsy

Also, while I do see a scenario in which it could help skum more than town (which is why I want to ask about the claim order first), the third party is kind of a non factor.

1) Survivor. Obv playing for town if true, so no.
2) Traitor. No, game would be over.
3) SK. Yes it would help. If there is an SK I would be just crazy surprised though, as I assume everyone would.
4) Reporter. If they have to get rid of all Hood, it doesn't matter to them at this point about finding PRs.

So yeah... Third party on a claim is either pro town or a null lean realistically.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1394 on: July 06, 2019, 10:52:08 pm »

also pubby, how much thought have you put into ashes thinking that we had info prior to night 1? do you need to re eval anything?

I actually agree with you that it would be strange for Mafia to not put skum in the hood, but like were you taking inferences away based on skum knowing who was in the hood day 1?
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1395 on: July 07, 2019, 06:27:31 am »

Faust has been VLA, so I don’t have clarification yet, so no plan posted.

He’s supposedly back Monday?
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1396 on: July 07, 2019, 07:41:00 am »

I think late today or Monday
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1397 on: July 07, 2019, 07:29:27 pm »

I take back my previous comment about ashes then obviously.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1398 on: July 07, 2019, 08:06:26 pm »

I’ve been piss poor town, that is for sure. Scum controls the game and the only antidote is activity to exert equal and opposite control. If I were scum I would have already thrown in the towel and forfeited myself like gkrieg did, or more likely, have put actual effort into the game from the get go.

I’m not opposed to a mass claim that begins with me. Based on what little deduction I have I feel fairly sure Pubby is scum.

I’m not sure where we end up with a mislynch today but if it end games us I owe it to town to try to prevent a mislynch from landing on me. Otherwise, I feel like I am more detrimental to town alive than flipped. Obviously hitting scum is the goal so I’m not volunteering or anything. It just seems like everyone at some point has been suspicious of me so I really don’t see us gaining any real POE by mislynching me.
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ashersky

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Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1399 on: July 07, 2019, 09:28:22 pm »

Phone posting, so please excuse any typos or odd spacing.

Faust came back. He confirmed my thought for me. Datswan was also thinking along the same lines, it seems.

The Reporter needs to claim.

Funnily enough, gkrieg’s towel toss made even more sense than we thought. Reporter will lose this game unless Town purposely slows down and lynches the entire neighborhood before the remaining scum. Faust confirmed that if we win with neighbors alive, Reporter loses.

I propose that the Reporter claim, further narrowing the non-neighborhood scum POE to two. We can lynch there and hopefully take out the traitor. That forces the final scum to shoot in the neighborhood for a few reasons.  If we missed they can’t shoot themselves, it also assures them there is no survivor to worry about.

The one hitch is if the reporter thinks scum will just shoot them out of spite. But that seems unlikely when scum can still use gkrieg’s plan once they have a name. It just doesn’t work so well when we have the POE so narrowed down and their numbers are reduced.

If the reporter doesn’t claim, we can just treat that player as scum — it is not a mislynch so no worries. As the reporter, that’s not a good thing, right?

So that’s my suggestion. It’s one of the three non-neighbors, so they can easily sort this. 
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