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[gkrieg13]

massclaim?

Maybe? Scum can already guarantee avoiding the PGO by just killing in the neighborhood, so that edge is diminished. The fact that they chose not to do that last night tells me they’re not that worried about it though.

Skum could be worried there is a Survivor.

If there is a Survivor and a Skum in the Hood then they would not of killed inside because they are 50-50 on hitting Survivor and then 50-50 on hitting themselves from that. That is a long shot, but just pointing it out.

This is actually a good point I think.

[gkrieg13]

Wow so everyone’s just ignoring the massive reread and wall of text I just did?

mass prod request: pingpongsam, e, pubby

Sure, ok, Vote: joth
That’s where I left off yestergameday. For now I will assume the effort is the final scum push to look towny and try to maybe have one bus member in a pool of otherwise townies and maybe even a 3p.

I’ll give it a more thorough read later torealday.  This should satisfy the desire for an immediate response, no?

Well I guess that settles that. pps is the last scum. If anyone seriously thinks that I do all that to stick the landing in a scum game I'm already winning by a mile, I really don't know what to tell you. Not even reading or engaging with my case? You are either scum or the laziest town player I've ever seen, so I'm charitably going to assume you're scum.

I don't think you posted that because you thought you were getting lynched, but you may have posted that to stop a partner from getting lynched. Either way, I think you are town.

[gkrieg13]

Sorry, had a speech contest today that I have been prepping for for weeks so I had less free time available.  I skimmed but did not give joth’s posts enough attention. I should be able to do that on Sunday.

In the meantime, I feel like voting is dangerous.  There has been talk of daychat being possible, planned team quick lynched are a thing. So I feel like even L-2 or 3 is dangerous, although long stretches at that level would highly suggest a scum wagon.

I mean yes and no. It is important we don't give scum the opportunity to quickhammer, but it is possible that only 3 scum know the identity of the others, so crazy quickhammers are unlikely. They are also trying to not lynch the traitor, so wagons that sit long at L-3 or L-2 are not necessarily on scum.

[gkrieg13]

Sorry but an old friend came into town and it is his birthday today so I’ll be pretty VLA today and tomorrow. I’ll get to this on Monday probably.

Aren't you usually unavailable weekends?

Yes, but I at least am still reading along. Was very V/LA this weekend.

[gkrieg13]

MiX is jumping his vote around a lot.

[gkrieg13]

Okay, as everyone has posted now, I think we can safely assume 3rd party chose Reporter.

No extra kills makes SK so highly unlikely that I’m just not considering it.
A Survivor would have claimed and won with scum by forcing a no lynch (survivor + traitor claim = 5 votes).
A second traitor would have claimed as in the survivor scenario.

The only issue I can see with this analysis is if the survivor prefers “trying to win with town” over “guaranteed win with mafia.”  In that case, it seems to me that claiming and stating as such would be a big boon to us.

Do folks agree that the survivor amongst EFHW, Datswan, and I should claim and pick a side?  Again, if they were against us, they would have already claimed anyway, so I see no downside (they can’t be killed at night so long as the other neighbors are alive) for anyone.

I completely agree with this analysis.

[gkrieg13]

I hope this isn’t scum!ash making sure the third-party traitor knows they have to claim to win...

They don't actually, if there's a traitor scum already won.

There’s always a traitor. Stop trying so hard to townslip.

You know what I mean, stop thinking I'm trying to townslip when I just mentioned something very important. In theory we're not endgamed, but in practice if the thirdparty's a traitor we have already lost.

This very clearly does not read like a townslip or attempted one to me.

[gkrieg13]

gkrieg's #1003 is yet another opportunistic scummy jump onto a town mislynch close to deadline. Honestly we should be lynching gkreig just based on his voting record.

What about that vote is opportunistic?

[gkrieg13]

Okay let's get PoEing, shall we?

Let's assume there's no Survivor+Scum in neighbor, because then they should probably have claimed and vigged the other neighbor (maybe, it's not as clear cut as EFHW thinks but it's close). Then out of (EFHW/ash/Swan) there's 2 town. Now, we know that joth is town because there's no way in hell scum!joth makes that much effort, his behavior comes from town!joth much more.

If I'm town, that leaves (pubby/pps/e/gkrieg/Glooble/Neighbor) for our 5 scum. This means that if we can determine even ONE town from these (well, from the first 5), we can PoE the entire scum team. The problem? I'm stuck between pubby and Glooble for town. However, this still means e/gkrieg is scum.

Vote: gkrieg

Ya I really hate this MYLO POE that seems to land on me every single game lately.

[gkrieg13]

But you are assuming 5 scum for your POE, and treating yourself and joth as conf!town.
 

There's 5 scum (because why would I assume third-party wants to side with town?) and me/joth are conf!town from my perspective, so what's wrong? You can reach gkrieg is scum from other PoVs, but I only need mine to vote. It should work even if you don't have conf!town reads from anyone outside the hood, just from how towny joth/Glooble/pubby are.

Your assumption that there are 5 scum is most likely not true.

[gkrieg13]

[gkrieg] scumreads Swan, actually provides a good case for Swan (scummy because I think Swan's town)

How is this scummy?  Was the case scummy or just that it was on a townread (that you have now, but probably didn't have then)?

[gkrieg13]

What do we make of gkrieg pointing out the possibility of the PGO causing an early MYLO? I think that's the most memorable thing he's done this game. Joth found it slightly scummy whereas I think it's slightly towny.

Setup talk is the easiest way to contribute early. It often comes from scum.

I agree with this in general, but I pointed it out because it could change how the PGO played D1.

[gkrieg13]

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps

Uh, I don't follow this analysis at all..., like what? Someone sitting at L-4 does not mean that someone is scum at this point.

And what about that wagon makes you think pubby is town?

[gkrieg13]

I think my plan is to reread pubby, e, PPS, MiX.

I'm pretty confident at this point that the twins are town. I also think there is probably scum in the neighborhood, because if there weren't, I think people would be advocating we lynch there today, because they can't hit the traitor that way.

[MiX]

[gkrieg] scumreads Swan, actually provides a good case for Swan (scummy because I think Swan's town)

How is this scummy?  Was the case scummy or just that it was on a townread (that you have now, but probably didn't have then)?

He was towny back at the time (well, maybe more null...) and the case was, well, "big" for D1. It's on #280 by the way.

[EFHW]

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps

Uh, I don't follow this analysis at all..., like what? Someone sitting at L-4 does not mean that someone is scum at this point.

And what about that wagon makes you think pubby is town?

Quicklynch + nk = scum win.

Re pubby, there was no reason to bus at that point and several of the scummier players are on that wagon. Chances of you, MiX, e, and Glooble all being town?

[gkrieg13]

I mean a 4- person quicklynch is pretty unreasonable.

[Swowl]

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps

I could be missing something from context.. but I believe the quoted would be 7 votes on Pubby putting him at L-1 at that time right? Not L-4?

Uh, I don't follow this analysis at all..., like what? Someone sitting at L-4 does not mean that someone is scum at this point.

And what about that wagon makes you think pubby is town?

[Swowl]

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps

Uh, I don't follow this analysis at all..., like what? Someone sitting at L-4 does not mean that someone is scum at this point.

And what about that wagon makes you think pubby is town?

Quote fail:

I could be missing something from context.. but I believe the quoted would be 7 votes on Pubby putting him at L-1 at that time right? Not L-4?

[Swowl]

That one post was not what I intended to contribute today, but I am exhausted. I will get back on it in the AM.

[jotheonah]

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps

Uh, I don't follow this analysis at all..., like what? Someone sitting at L-4 does not mean that someone is scum at this point.

And what about that wagon makes you think pubby is town?

Quicklynch + nk = scum win.

Re pubby, there was no reason to bus at that point and several of the scummier players are on that wagon. Chances of you, MiX, e, and Glooble all being town?

My argument is that at the time scum thought debate was the traitor, so we’ll find them amongst the people who stayed on pubby and didn’t want to move to debate. Bolstering this is the fact that the derailing of the pubby wagon was done by conf!town Eddie pretty singlehandedly.

[pingpongsam]

Unvote

I really don't know what to think but I am quite convinced joth is town at this point. Scum clearly would not take the bait, either.

I still owe us all a silverspawn reread. Drowning in work atm.

[2.71828.....]

Unvote

I really don't know what to think but I am quite convinced joth is town at this point. Scum clearly would not take the bait, either.

I still owe us all a silverspawn reread. Drowning in work atm.

Take what bait? Saying that you placed a bad vote and are scum for it?

Because joth didn't actually take any bait, they kept their cool and I don't think they have voted at all today. I mean, there was a reaction post, but it didn't include a vote

[2.71828.....]

Re-framing scummy play as "bait for scum to jump on"

I don't know, is this bait for me to vote you here as well? How can I know what is bait and what is just scummy?

[MiX]

Re-framing scummy play as "bait for scum to jump on"

I don't know, is this bait for me to vote you here as well? How can I know what is bait and what is just scummy?

I think it's town bait so that he dies instead of you. That's the only thing that's keeping me from voting pps right now.