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[faust]

Welcome to M123: Doomsday Mafia!

Mod: faust, comod: WestCoastDidds

This is a semi-open setup for 15 players. For setup information see the next post.

Players:
1. Glooble
2. Debatepro
3. MiX
4. DatSwan
5. jotheonah
6. pingpongsam
7. mcmcsalot
8. EFHW
9. Uncleeurope
10. A Drowned Kernel
11. 2.71828.....
12. ashersky
13. gkrieg13
14. pubby
15. silverspawn

Spectators tagged: Joseph2302, SpaceAnemone

Subs available: Galzria, (popsofctown)

Day starts/ends:

General rules

Changes to the usual rule sets are marked in olive.

The Golden Rule:

Please remember that this is a game and your main objective is to have fun!  Be considerate of each other, don’t get personal, and enjoy the game. Please read The Civility Pledge before signing up for any mafia game on this site.  If you have not /pledged there, you cannot play. Excessive personal attacks or uncivil behavior may be dealt with by modifiers or modkills.

1. General Gameplay and Etiquette:

1. You may not quote information (either real or fabricated) from any game-related source other than the thread you are posting in. This means no quotes from PMs and no quotes from QTs in the main thread or in another QT. Paraphrasing is acceptable. If you are unsure whether a post is legal, please ask the moderator before posting.
2. There is to be NO personal communication outside of the forum postings and the QTs specifically designed for this purpose.
3. As a general rule you should aim for one post every 24 hours, minimum, to keep the game moving.

2. Voting, Deadlines, and Player Death:

1. Day phases will last 7 days, Night lasts at least 36 hours.
2. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline.
3. Once you have reached a simple majority no further unvoting will change someone’s fate. Further votes will also be ignored.
4. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until the mod locks the thread; all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.
5. If the deadline is hit without a player reaching the majority of votes, the game goes to Night without a lynch.
6. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName.  Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold or do not follow this syntax! Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
7. Please submit vote revocations Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
8. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch.
9. If the game goes on for 3 days and 3 nights without a lynch or night kill, town wins.
10. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post in the game or in Quicktopics. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent.
11. If the thread is locked, you may not post.  Threads can be locked for various reasons, but no matter what the reason, you may not post.  The mod may forget to lock the thread, but if they say it is locked, it is still locked.

3. Miscellaneous/Mechanics:

1. Bold, olive text is reserved for the mod.  No invisible/small text is allowed, nor is cryptography.
2. If you have an issue/problem with the game, please discuss this in your role QT.  Do not post issues/complaints in the game thread.
3. The Mods may make mistakes - please point out any mistakes gently.  Mistakes will be corrected where possible, but sometimes mistakes are made that cannot be reversed.  These will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
4. Please bold all requests to the Mods so that they don’t get missed.
5. Prods of missing players will be issued upon request after 24 hours of no activity.  A prodded player has 24 hours to respond or risks replacement. A player who has been prodded 2 times is subject to replacement under rule 3.9 without further notice.  If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period please post a notice to that effect in the thread.  Whether a prior announcement means that the missing player will not be replaced is up to the mod.
6. Please do not discuss ongoing games, it can unintentionally affect the other game. Do not discuss this game in any thread that is not directly related to it.
7. Rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, which may include modkill(s) if needed.
8. Players who discover they are too busy to play in a game or want to leave the game for civility issues are not allowed to officially /out in the thread.  A request to /out must only be done via a post in the role QT. Please do not use this as a manipulation technique.  (Note players may continue to threaten to /out or imply that they might as long as it does not include an official request). Requests to /out are final once submitted. There will be no /outing and then /inning back into the game so make sure that when you /out you have thought it through and really want to do it. Players that can't be replaced will simply be mod-killed. Whether your request to /out will lead to replacement or a modkill is up to the mod's discretion.

[faust]

Setup

This game uses Stack the Deck+, a newly designed semi-open setup based on Stack the Deck.

There will be a total of 15 players, consisting of:
3 Mafia Goons
1 Mafia Traitor
1 Third party
1 Neighbor
1 Vanilla Cop
8 VTs

Special Mechanics:

Neighborhood compulsive 1-shot Vig
During N1, the members of the Neighborhood select a target to be killed, and one of the neighbors to perform the action. If there is no consensus, the target is chosen by majority, the targeter can only be someone who agreed to the target, and is picked by majority among those. Ties are broken randomly. Self-targeting orders cannot be submitted.

A, B and C are Neighbors. They submit:

A: B targets X
B: A targets Y
C: C targets Y

Y is the majority target and is selected. All Neighbors are tied for targeting, but since A did not want to target X, they may not become the targeter. Thus targeter is randomly decided among B and C.

Role Modification
During pre-game, the Mafia Goons have 48 hours to select which (if any) of the modifications they want to their team. A maximum of four modifications may be selected.

 - Traitor knows Mafia
 - Mafia knows of 2 roles not included in the setup
 - Mafia has Daychat
 - A random Mafia Goon becomes 1-shot Rolestopper
 - A random Mafia Goon becomes Neighbor
 - A random Mafia Goon becomes 1-shot Active Paranoid Gun Owner
 - A random Mafia Goon becomes Vanilla Cop
 - The Traitor becomes Roleblocker. They lose this power if they are recruited via nightkill.

For each modification that is selected by the mafia, one Vanilla Townie instead receives a randomly selected role from the list below:

 - Neighbor
 - Neighbor
 - Roleblocker
 - Bodyguard
 - Even-Night Tracker
 - 1-shot Watcher
 - 1-shot Active Paranoid Gun Owner

The third party player has 48 hours to pick one of the 4 roles below. Their pick removes a corresponding role from the list of possible town roles.

 - Bodyguarded Neighbor Survivor: Wins if they are still alive when the game ends. When they would be killed at Night, a random other member of the Neighborhood dies instead. Removes a Neighbor from town's list.
 - Ninja 1-shot Bulletproof Serial Killer: Wins if they are the only player left alive. Their kill cannot be detected by Trackers or Watchers. Removes town's 1-shot PGO.
 - Tracker Reporter: Wins when all power roles are dead and they are still alive. If they win, they are removed from the game. Removes the Even-Night Tracker from town's list.
 - Mafia Traitor: Shares mafia's win condition, but does not know who they are (not even if mafia selects Traitor knows mafia). The mafia does not know whether they exist. Picking this does not remove a power from town's list, but instead adds one additional role for town.

Clarifications:
- At the beginning of the game all town aligned players receive a "Vanilla Town" role. Once mafia has selected their abilities all town roles go out. This prevents claims of "received roles before/after mafia modifications".
- No player may receive more than one role/modification. This means that mafia may not choose all of the 4 modifications giving them roles.
- If a Mafia Traitor is targeted with the factional kill, they join the Mafia QT instead of dying. They may use the nightkill once they joined the QT or all original members of the Mafia QT have died.
- A Traitor Roleblocker is resolved before a Town Roleblocker.
- The Bodyguard protects their targets from all nightkills in the Night they target them.
- Traitor does not constitute a power role, but also is not Vanilla
- The Neighborhood QT is only open at Night, but not during N0.
- If all members of the mafia QT die and 2 Traitors are alive, the non-third party Traitor inherits the nightkill.
- A mafia Neighbor is able to perform the Vigilante kill and the factional kill at the same time.

Role PMs

You are a Neighbor. Each night, you may talk to your fellow Neighbors in this QT: [QT link]. For Night 1, the members of the QT must choose a target and targeter for a night kill.

You are a Vanilla Cop. Each Night, you may target another player. At the end of the Night, you will learn whether your target is a Vanilla member of their factions.

You are a Roleblocker. Each Night, you may target another player. Any action that player takes that night will fail.

You are a 1-shot Active Paranoid Gun Owner. Once during the game, at Night, you may choose to activate your powers. If you do, all players targeting you taht Night will die.

You are a 1-shot Rolestopper. Once during the game, at Night, you may target another player. All actions targeting that player will fail.

You are a Bodyguard. Each Night, you may target another player. If they would die that Night, you will die instead.

You are an Even-Night Tracker. On every even Night, you may target another player, and at the end of the Night, you will learn which player (if any) they targeted that Night.

You are a 1-shot Watcher. Once during the game, at Night, you may target another player. At the end of the Night, you will learn the names of all players that targeted them that Night.

Flavor

Every townie receives a randomly selected dystopian future as their flavor (and non-townies receive them as fakeclaims). Flavor will roughly be based around whether humanity can avoid the impending doom.

[A Drowned Kernel]

When would this be likely to start?

[faust]

When would this be likely to start?

Whenever it fills. I expect not before the end of at least one of the current games, given that we need a decent amount of people.

[Glooble]

/in

[A Drowned Kernel]

If I understand the neighborhood correctly:

-at least one neighbor is guaranteed town
-if there are four neighbors you know for sure that one is scum
-if scum doesn't pick neighbor and no extra neighbors are rolled for town they're just a compulsive vig

Is that all right?

[faust]

If I understand the neighborhood correctly:

-at least one neighbor is guaranteed town
-if there are four neighbors you know for sure that one is scum
-if scum doesn't pick neighbor and no extra neighbors are rolled for town they're just a compulsive vig

Is that all right?

Yes, that's all correct, the last with the caveat that it's only true if third party doesn't pick Survivor.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Do mafia PRs count for the reporter?

[Debatepro]

in/ - If it begins after or around June 17 ish, WCD should join.

[MiX]

/in because I miss Debatepro!

[LaLight]

/in

[faust]

Do mafia PRs count for the reporter?

Yes.

[jotheonah]

this looks absolutely bonkers bananas and I am /in

[Joseph2302]

/tag
I'm interested but also away without internet for over a week soon

[WestCoastDidds]

Faust, do you need a co-mod? I’d like to learn.

[LaLight]

Actually, /out, sorry. I can't commit to anything really now

[LaLight]

Might be able to sub maybe, so don't send a speccy

[faust]

Faust, do you need a co-mod? I’d like to learn.

Sure, that would be a great help. I'm going to send you the mod QT soon.

[Swowl]

/in

[2.71828.....]

/tag

[SpaceAnemone]

/tag

I'd like to play, but let's see if my free time ever re-materialises before committing to anything...

[pingpongsam]

/in

VLA 6/10-6/12

[jotheonah]

/in

VLA 6/10-6/12

hey! long time no see

[Joseph2302]

If this game is still looking for sign ups in a month, I'll join

[pingpongsam]

/in

VLA 6/10-6/12

hey! long time no see

Hi!

[mcmcsalot]

/in this looks great!

Am I incorrect though the neighborhood example looks like C has to kill Y.

A: B target X
B: A target Y
C: C target Y

Y is the majority so they are the target, which leaves A or C to do the targeting, since A did not want Y targeted they cannot be the target-or so C targets Y. Correct?

[jotheonah]

I also have a setup question. If all three of the non-traitor mafia die but the traitor is still alive, does the traitor get a nightkill?

What if there are two traitors alive but the rest of the mafia are dead?

[faust]

Am I incorrect though the neighborhood example looks like C has to kill Y.

A: B target X
B: A target Y
C: C target Y

Y is the majority so they are the target, which leaves A or C to do the targeting, since A did not want Y targeted they cannot be the target-or so C targets Y. Correct?

No, target and targeter are determined independently so to speak. Y is the target, and even though noone submitted "B targets Y", someone selected B to do the targeting, and B wants Y targeted, so B is in the running.

I also have a setup question. If all three of the non-traitor mafia die but the traitor is still alive, does the traitor get a nightkill?

What if there are two traitors alive but the rest of the mafia are dead?

Yes, the Traitor will inherit the nightkill in that case. If there are 2 Traitors, then the non-third party Traitor will inherit the nightkill, and if they die, the remaining Traitor inherits it from them.

[jotheonah]

I love this setup and I love that scum and third party get choices, but I just know I'm going to end up getting VT and get to make no choices.

[jotheonah]

So this isn't explicit in the setup post, but once scum and third party make their choices, how is it determined which town power roles are added out of the ones remaining? Is it random or will you do it strategically with an eye toward balance?

[mcmcsalot]

Am I incorrect though the neighborhood example looks like C has to kill Y.

A: B target X
B: A target Y
C: C target Y

Y is the majority so they are the target, which leaves A or C to do the targeting, since A did not want Y targeted they cannot be the target-or so C targets Y. Correct?

No, target and targeter are determined independently so to speak. Y is the target, and even though noone submitted "B targets Y", someone selected B to do the targeting, and B wants Y targeted, so B is in the running.

Ah okay so essentially you select someone to be the target-or regardless of target and then select a target and the only exclusion is someone can’t be forced to target a person they didn’t vote for as the target.

[A Drowned Kernel]

If a mafia neighbor is chosen to perform the kill, can they still perform the mafia kill?

[EFHW]

Cool setup.  /in

[faust]

So this isn't explicit in the setup post, but once scum and third party make their choices, how is it determined which town power roles are added out of the ones remaining? Is it random or will you do it strategically with an eye toward balance?

It will be random, with every entry on the list only selectable once and possibly one option removed due to third party choice.

If a mafia neighbor is chosen to perform the kill, can they still perform the mafia kill?

Yes.

[Uncleeurope]

I’m thinking...

[jotheonah]

I’m thinking...

You all saw it, he typed "in"

[mcmcsalot]

I’m th in king...

You all saw it, he typed "in"

Sounds like he’s excited

[Uncleeurope]

But I didn’t put a “/“ so I couldn’t possibly be in.

Wait...

[2.71828.....]

/

in

[Uncleeurope]

/

in

Looks like e wants to play too.

[A Drowned Kernel]

/in

[2.71828.....]

/

in

Looks like e wants to play too.

I suppose so

/in

[WestCoastDidds]

/in

[WestCoastDidds]

/in

Whoops, sorry, faust. Not me. I’ll help you mod. ADK /inned, though

[ashersky]

/in

[WestCoastDidds]

Bump, bump!

Come on, three players!

[popsofctown]

Should I play?

[jotheonah]

Should I play?

Duh

[A Drowned Kernel]

About the "know two roles" option:

-can scum get the extra neighbors as answers?
-can scum get the options that the third party didn't pick as answers?
-if the above aren't the case, what happens if scum picks that option and there aren't two such roles in the game (for example, scum picks 4 mods and the third party picks mafia traitor, and all of the unique town PRs are selected)

[gkrieg13]

/in

[popsofctown]

I don't know if I like the setup

[pubby]

/in

[faust]

About the "know two roles" option:

-can scum get the extra neighbors as answers?
-can scum get the options that the third party didn't pick as answers?
-if the above aren't the case, what happens if scum picks that option and there aren't two such roles in the game (for example, scum picks 4 mods and the third party picks mafia traitor, and all of the unique town PRs are selected)

Extra neighbors are a possible answer. Also, they cannot get whatever role is removed by third party choice as an answer.

[faust]

I don't know if I like the setup

Not much time left to decide!

[Galzria]

/sub

[silverspawn]

/in

[jotheonah]

Well pops, maybe we’ll need a sub.

[popsofctown]

Yeah I might replace, we'll see.

[faust]

PMs are out! Please confirm in your personal or factional QT. Night 0 begin now and lasts until June 03, 2019, 10:00:00 am.

[faust]

The setup post now has role PMs included for all possible roles.

[faust]

Clarification: The Neighborhood QT will not open until N1. Neighbors are not informed who, if anyone, is in the neighborhood with them until then.

[faust]

The dawn of the 21st century marked a brief window of optimism for human civilization. The cold war seemed over and the nuclear devastation of the earth now was merely a scare of the past. Around the world, dictators were overthrown in favor of democratically elected rulers. And despite the warnings, the climate crisis still felt distant and vague.

But those who in the wake of this period of prosperity proclaimed the end of history would soon enough be proven wrong. Processes that had been brewing below the surface would soon escalate and force the leaders of the world to act. They were sorely unprepared. I have gathered here what records I could find that document humanity's path in the 21st century, the century of global catastrophe. My hope is that future generations might study these developments, and learn from our mistakes, where we have failed to learn from the mistakes of our ancestors.

Day 1 begins!

Vote Count 1.0

Not Voting (15): Glooble, Debatepro, MiX, DatSwan, jotheonah, pingpongsam, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Uncleeurope, A Drowned Kernel, 2.71828....., ashersky, gkrieg13, pubby, silverspawn

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends on June 10, 2019, 10:00:00 am.

Thread unlocked!

[A Drowned Kernel]

Setup talk is bad here, I think, so let's not.

[mcmcsalot]

Setup talk is bad here, I think, so let's not.

Sounds good you scum?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Setup talk is bad here, I think, so let's not.

Sounds good you scum?

Nope. How bout you?

[pingpongsam]

Ashersky has a plan?

[mcmcsalot]

Setup talk is bad here, I think, so let's not.

Sounds good you scum?

Nope. How bout you?

Nope! So that’s nice. Getting a bad feeling from anyone so far?

[mcmcsalot]

Ashersky has a plan?

This made me actually laugh out loud. You’re town

[A Drowned Kernel]

Setup talk is bad here, I think, so let's not.

Sounds good you scum?

Nope. How bout you?

Nope! So that’s nice. Getting a bad feeling from anyone so far?

Not you, so we're narrowing things down already. Man, this game is easy!

[mcmcsalot]

Okay so we’ve got three townies here with me you and pps. I say we form a voting block, it takes 8 to lynch so I think three is a good size block, you guys in?

[jotheonah]

Setup talk is bad here, I think, so let's not.

This is a town tell for ADK, I suppose.

[Glooble]

Setup talk is bad here, I think, so let's not.

This is a town tell for ADK, I suppose.

Or they're scum who learned from a recent mistake- but I doubt it, seeing as ADK got townread so hard that game they almost won it.

[MiX]

Ashersky has a plan?

Not anymore. Ash is not the same...not like I knew him before.

This setup is a complete mess to theorize about. Maybe we should only talk about it D2?

Okay so we’ve got three townies here with me you and pps. I say we form a voting block, it takes 8 to lynch so I think three is a good size block, you guys in?

We'd probably need...8, right?

Setup talk is bad here, I think, so let's not.

This is a town tell for ADK, I suppose.

Or they're scum who learned from a recent mistake- but I doubt it, seeing as ADK got townread so hard that game they almost won it.

It wasn't a mistake and it has little to do with how he got townread.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Honestly I like most of what I see so far.

[ashersky]

Setup talk is bad here, I think, so let's not.

Why, pray tell?  (Genuine question. Given things are now set in stone, I wonder what harm can come of it. I’m fine with generalized terms if it helps you answer.)

[mcmcsalot]

Okay so we’ve got three townies here with me you and pps. I say we form a voting block, it takes 8 to lynch so I think three is a good size block, you guys in?

We'd probably need...8, right?

No silly that’s a whole wagon. I am proposing my fellow townies adk and pps join me in a linked up voting block, where one votes we all vote.

It would work like this vote: mix

[ashersky]

Ashersky has a plan?

Kind of. Nothing spectacular though, and I wonder if it isn’t better left unsaid.

[ashersky]

Mom salon is town.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Setup talk is bad here, I think, so let's not.

Why, pray tell?  (Genuine question. Given things are now set in stone, I wonder what harm can come of it. I’m fine with generalized terms if it helps you answer.)

Mostly we don't want to help the traitor(s)

[mcmcsalot]

Setup talk is bad here, I think, so let's not.

Why, pray tell?  (Genuine question. Given things are now set in stone, I wonder what harm can come of it. I’m fine with generalized terms if it helps you answer.)

Mostly we don't want to help the traitor(s)

Psssst..did you see my post, you were supposed to vote mix...kinda leaving me hanging here...

[MiX]

Oh, like this?

Vote: MiX

[A Drowned Kernel]

Oh, like this?

Vote: MiX

Woah bear.

vote: mix

[pingpongsam]

Oh, like this?

Vote: MiX

Vote: MiX

[mcmcsalot]

Oh, like this?

Vote: MiX

Self voting is scummy, what started as a demonstration of the block I’m action now feels like an okay place for the block to rest in the early game.

[mcmcsalot]

On the topic of setup this is one of those ones where scum and pr’s have more info than the rest and should discuss things as they see fit.

I dont think there are any things that need to be discussed off the bat like “make sure this does this” or that we should push a d1 claim of any kind.

[Glooble]

Oh, like this?

Vote: MiX

Self voting is scummy, what started as a demonstration of the block I’m action now feels like an okay place for the block to rest in the early game.

As stupid as this is going to sound, acting scummy is a town tell for MiX.

[MiX]

Oh, like this?

Vote: MiX

Self voting is scummy, what started as a demonstration of the block I’m action now feels like an okay place for the block to rest in the early game.

As stupid as this is going to sound, acting scummy is a town tell for MiX.

And leaving me off the hook is a scum tell:

Vote: Glooble

[Glooble]

Oh, like this?

Vote: MiX

Self voting is scummy, what started as a demonstration of the block I’m action now feels like an okay place for the block to rest in the early game.

As stupid as this is going to sound, acting scummy is a town tell for MiX.

And leaving me off the hook is a scum tell:

Vote: Glooble

More like a "almost lost the last game by tunneling you super hard when we were both town" tell.

But what's that old saying about generals always fighting the previous war?

[MiX]

Okay, actual scumhunting...

ash is town. Mcmc is town. Glooble is town. I have no idea what pps is. ADK is most likely scum, but I will not vote there, only in LyLo (won me last time). The person that is most likely going to win us the game if we lynch them today is

Vote: gkrieg

[MiX]

And I forgot joth posted, so he's SK. I suggest we take him out now.

Vote: joth

[Uncleeurope]

*yawn*

Vote: MiX

On the topic of setup this is one of those ones where scum and pr’s have more info than the rest and should discuss things as they see fit.

I dont think there are any things that need to be discussed off the bat like “make sure this does this” or that we should push a d1 claim of any kind.

I think it’s worth discussing a little bit. Or at least interesting to do so.

[gkrieg13]

*yawn*

Vote: MiX

On the topic of setup this is one of those ones where scum and pr’s have more info than the rest and should discuss things as they see fit.

I dont think there are any things that need to be discussed off the bat like “make sure this does this” or that we should push a d1 claim of any kind.

I think it’s worth discussing a little bit. Or at least interesting to do so.

This is a lazy vote.

vote: Eddie

[EFHW]

vote: mcmc. Only scum would be so trusting. (This is 95% RVS and 5% wondering about scum motivations here.) (Oh, and 5% for not being included in the cabal.)

[mcmcsalot]

*yawn*

Vote: MiX

On the topic of setup this is one of those ones where scum and pr’s have more info than the rest and should discuss things as they see fit.

I dont think there are any things that need to be discussed off the bat like “make sure this does this” or that we should push a d1 claim of any kind.

I think it’s worth discussing a little bit. Or at least interesting to do so.

This is a lazy vote.

vote: Eddie

I agree it’s a lazy vote and lazy comment on my setup thoughts.

Eddie do you have things about the setup you want to discuss, if so no ones stopping you. If you just like talking about setups and want someone to make a post about it then you are out of luck and slightly scummy.

[jotheonah]

I could sheep vote: Uncleeurope here.

[Debatepro]

Excited to be in this game, playing for the first time with some new people (to me, not the game).

I really like the flavor, which is unusual for me. In a previous life, I used to argue we should let everyone die from biocide or an asteroid to kill all life on earth so we don't build something worse that destroys the universe. I am quite pleased that the Armageddon gods were on my side with the randomizer. Viva la town, let's bring this sucker down.

Vote: MiX - Like Mexico...always on the table.

[MiX]

5 votes in three hours...yep, I still got it.

I really don't think Eddie would play exactly the same way he did last time he was scum, and he just hit basically all the marks he was hitting before (then again I was his scumbuddy so I have some confirmation bias). On the other hand, joth's playing his townmeta a little bit too perfectly now.

gkrieg is scum, EFHW is town, Debatepro is null.

[silverspawn]

Hi everyone. I'm in a game. How strange.

I agree that the setup shouldn't be discussed here, although if someone thinks they have a great pro-town plan and has thought that through, then please correct me.

*yawn*

Vote: MiX

On the topic of setup this is one of those ones where scum and pr’s have more info than the rest and should discuss things as they see fit.

I dont think there are any things that need to be discussed off the bat like “make sure this does this” or that we should push a d1 claim of any kind.

I think it’s worth discussing a little bit. Or at least interesting to do so.

Interesting and pro-town are orthogonal dimensions. We will not discuss the setup because it's interesting.

@mcmc: I'd like to know how serious your voting block attempt was.

[MiX]

Okay, here's an interesting tidbit I almost forgot about: D2 is MyLo. Or at least can be. Fun setup, right? Is it at all useful?

[gkrieg13]

5 votes in three hours...yep, I still got it.

I really don't think Eddie would play exactly the same way he did last time he was scum, and he just hit basically all the marks he was hitting before (then again I was his scumbuddy so I have some confirmation bias). On the other hand, joth's playing his townmeta a little bit too perfectly now.

gkrieg is scum, EFHW is town, Debatepro is null.

Damn, MiX got me...

[MiX]

5 votes in three hours...yep, I still got it.

I really don't think Eddie would play exactly the same way he did last time he was scum, and he just hit basically all the marks he was hitting before (then again I was his scumbuddy so I have some confirmation bias). On the other hand, joth's playing his townmeta a little bit too perfectly now.

gkrieg is scum, EFHW is town, Debatepro is null.

Damn, MiX got me...

Don't worry, I promise I won't tunnel you as hard as last game. You're still scum, however.

[Glooble]

Okay, here's an interesting tidbit I almost forgot about: D2 is MyLo. Or at least can be. Fun setup, right? Is it at all useful?

I don't think this is right.

[gkrieg13]

5 votes in three hours...yep, I still got it.

I really don't think Eddie would play exactly the same way he did last time he was scum, and he just hit basically all the marks he was hitting before (then again I was his scumbuddy so I have some confirmation bias). On the other hand, joth's playing his townmeta a little bit too perfectly now.

gkrieg is scum, EFHW is town, Debatepro is null.

Damn, MiX got me...

Don't worry, I promise I won't tunnel you as hard as last game. You're still scum, however.

Ya, you saw how well that worked for you last game.

[gkrieg13]

Ashersky has a plan?

Kind of. Nothing spectacular though, and I wonder if it isn’t better left unsaid.

Ash without a plan is scummy.

[gkrieg13]

vote: ashersky

[gkrieg13]

Setup talk is bad here, I think, so let's not.

This is a town tell for ADK, I suppose.

?

[gkrieg13]

Honestly I like most of what I see so far.

What do you like of what you saw so far?

[Uncleeurope]

I could sheep vote: Uncleeurope here.

Vote: Jotheonah

My vote is lazy because of the yawn, get it? It’s a joke, haha.

Also, Joth is sheeping what exactly? Does he find me scummy himself? Stay tuned for the next episode to find out. Have some backbone and say you think I’m a baddie.

[gkrieg13]

Oh, like this?

Vote: MiX

Scummy how much MiX wants to be a part of the block, but also MiX.

[MiX]

Okay, here's an interesting tidbit I almost forgot about: D2 is MyLo. Or at least can be. Fun setup, right? Is it at all useful?

I don't think this is right.

If there's 2 Traitors it is.

[silverspawn]

you think I'm an Awaclus

[gkrieg13]

Okay, here's an interesting tidbit I almost forgot about: D2 is MyLo. Or at least can be. Fun setup, right? Is it at all useful?

I don't think this is right.

If there's 2 Traitors it is.

I actually think it is worse than this. I'm pretty sure mafia can just outright win N1 if a certain set of things happens

[silverspawn]

Oh, like this?

Vote: MiX

Scummy how much MiX wants to be a part of the block, but also MiX.

Why is it scummy to want to be part of the block? I felt a desire to be part of the block and considered asking, and then didn't because I dreaded the scrutiny that might have followed. If anything I think it's towny to show that you want to be part of the block. (Though actually, I didn't catch where MiX expressed interest, but I'll take your word that they did).

[silverspawn]

vote: gkrieg this is the kind of setup comment that can't possibly be good for town

[gkrieg13]

Oh, like this?

Vote: MiX

Scummy how much MiX wants to be a part of the block, but also MiX.

Why is it scummy to want to be part of the block? I felt a desire to be part of the block and considered asking, and then didn't because I dreaded the scrutiny that might have followed. If anything I think it's towny to show that you want to be part of the block. (Though actually, I didn't catch where MiX expressed interest, but I'll take your word that they did).

I guess it is more that instead of expressing they wanted to be part of the block, MiX just voted with the block (even though it was a self vote).

[EFHW]

vote: gkrieg this is the kind of setup comment that can't possibly be good for town

Which comment?

[Glooble]

Okay, here's an interesting tidbit I almost forgot about: D2 is MyLo. Or at least can be. Fun setup, right? Is it at all useful?

I don't think this is right.

If there's 2 Traitors it is.

Check your math again.

[gkrieg13]

vote: gkrieg this is the kind of setup comment that can't possibly be good for town

I was just verifying that what MiX said (and Glooble refuted) was accurate. If you look at the setup, scum has no way of influencing this set of things to happen, so I don't know why it has any affect good or bad for town.

[gkrieg13]

Okay, here's an interesting tidbit I almost forgot about: D2 is MyLo. Or at least can be. Fun setup, right? Is it at all useful?

I don't think this is right.

If there's 2 Traitors it is.

Check your math again.

No you

[silverspawn]

Oh, like this?

Vote: MiX

Scummy how much MiX wants to be a part of the block, but also MiX.

Why is it scummy to want to be part of the block? I felt a desire to be part of the block and considered asking, and then didn't because I dreaded the scrutiny that might have followed. If anything I think it's towny to show that you want to be part of the block. (Though actually, I didn't catch where MiX expressed interest, but I'll take your word that they did).

I guess it is more that instead of expressing they wanted to be part of the block, MiX just voted with the block (even though it was a self vote).

Oh, that. I wouldn't call that wanting to be part of the block, rather signaling carelessness. Which is a towny thing that scum have learned to emulate so not very reliable of a signal anymore.

vote: gkrieg this is the kind of setup comment that can't possibly be good for town

Which comment?

The one about mafia winning N1.

[Glooble]

vote: gkrieg this is the kind of setup comment that can't possibly be good for town

Sorry, but why not? What exactly is wrong with making sure town is aware of how much or little time we might have, and how much leeway there is for making mistakes? I understand the underlying reason for not discussing the setup, but this seems like an exception to me. It's quite likely I'm missing something though. So if you can tell me why you think this particular line of questioning is anti-town I'd love to hear it.

That being said, if there's some reason why even explaining that is anti-town then please do not explain and I will abide by the consensus.

[MiX]

I could sheep vote: Uncleeurope here.

Vote: Jotheonah

My vote is lazy because of the yawn, get it? It’s a joke, haha.

Also, Joth is sheeping what exactly? Does he find me scummy himself? Stay tuned for the next episode to find out. Have some backbone and say you think I’m a baddie.

Terrible joke, terrible reason to vote. You're town.


Yes, voting myself was me saying that I wanted to join the block. Not gonna quote all the discussion around it.

I can't believe gkrieg is right that mafia can win N1. That's hilarious.

vote: gkrieg this is the kind of setup comment that can't possibly be good for town

Vote: ss

[Uncleeurope]

Does this mean I am an IC, MiX?

[MiX]

Does this mean I am an IC, MiX?

There's no ICs in this setup, so no.

[Uncleeurope]

Does this mean I am an IC, MiX?

There's no ICs in this setup, so no.

Well, I tried.

[Debatepro]

Okay, actual scumhunting...

Curious, what are you doing that is scumhunting? You don't leave enough time for someone to join you.

[MiX]

Okay, actual scumhunting...

Curious, what are you doing that is scumhunting? You don't leave enough time for someone to join you.

Interacting, pushing certain things, saying others to see how people reply, putting down reads and see who agrees with what and their general reaction, explaining this point to hopefully know what you were expecting and, thus, know what point of view you had and how that aligns with town/scum you.

Besides, I always want to give something to reread later so I can go "wow I was so wrong this is so scummy/towny when I thought it was towny/scummy" which tend to be the most accurate reads.

[silverspawn]

Both MiX and their wagon are scummy.

[faust]

Vote Count 1.1

MiX (4): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, pingpongsam, Debatepro
jotheonah (1): Uncleeurope
Uncleeurope (1): jotheonah
mcmcsalot (1): EFHW
ashersky (1): gkrieg13
gkrieg13 (1): silverspawn
silverspawn (1): MiX

Not Voting (5): Glooble, DatSwan, 2.71828....., ashersky, pubby

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends on June 10, 2019, 10:00:00 am.

[Uncleeurope]

Both MiX and their wagon are scummy.

I’ve missed you, bud.

[jotheonah]

Setup talk is bad here, I think, so let's not.

This is a town tell for ADK, I suppose.

?

Last game ADK was scum and started the game off with a ton of setup talk. That’s the joke.

[MiX]

Setup talk is bad here, I think, so let's not.

This is a town tell for ADK, I suppose.

?

Last game ADK was scum and started the game off with a ton of setup talk. That’s the joke.

Terrible joke, ADK not discussion setup's null precisely because of that.

Scum team: joth/gkrieg/ss/e, mcmc's survivor. There, game solved. Oh, except I'm not sure who's traitor yet.

[jotheonah]

I could sheep vote: Uncleeurope here.

Vote: Jotheonah

My vote is lazy because of the yawn, get it? It’s a joke, haha.

Also, Joth is sheeping what exactly? Does he find me scummy himself? Stay tuned for the next episode to find out. Have some backbone and say you think I’m a baddie.

————————the joke——————>


......................(joth).....................

But I did think your vote was actually lazy, jumping on the giant random MiX wagon without adding anything to it.

This is obviously very different from what I did, which was to jump on the very small Eddie wagon without adding anything to it.

[2.71828.....]

Hi everyone! So MiX is scum and everyone else is scummy?

Sounds about right.

Except Uncle is IC of the day since he asked for it.

[2.71828.....]

Read the thread a bit more and I think I like a vote: silverspawn

Man, it must be a while since I was last in a game with them. My new(ish) phone doesn't recognize their name. silverspawn.

Working on it. Should be good soon. Google learns fast. silverspawn.

Got it.

[Uncleeurope]

Hi everyone! So MiX is scum and everyone else is scummy?

Sounds about right.

Except Uncle is IC of the day since he asked for it.

Ayyyyy, that’s what I’m talkin’ about.

[MiX]

Hi everyone! So MiX is scum and everyone else is scummy?

Sounds about right.

Except Uncle is IC of the day since he asked for it.

Ayyyyy, that’s what I’m talkin’ about.

Oh, I just remembered last time you were town you also got a day 1 IC pass, so obviously you're town as well.

[Uncleeurope]

Hi everyone! So MiX is scum and everyone else is scummy?

Sounds about right.

Except Uncle is IC of the day since he asked for it.

Ayyyyy, that’s what I’m talkin’ about.

Oh, I just remembered last time you were town you also got a day 1 IC pass, so obviously you're town as well.

Your logic is undeniable.

[pubby]

vote: pingpongsam

 

[silverspawn]

good case. vote: pps

[pingpongsam]

good case. vote: pps

I mean, clearly I’ve been made redundant with this mix guy around. Self votes, check, calls the scum team D1, check, makes nearly incomprehensible analysis that is useless to everyone but maybe himself, check. I mean, I got nothing left to do here.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Okay, actual scumhunting...

ash is town. Mcmc is town. Glooble is town. I have no idea what pps is. ADK is most likely scum, but I will not vote there, only in LyLo (won me last time). The person that is most likely going to win us the game if we lynch them today is

Vote: gkrieg

"Actual scumhunting: [votes for someone who hasn't posted yet]"

[A Drowned Kernel]

Okay, here's an interesting tidbit I almost forgot about: D2 is MyLo. Or at least can be. Fun setup, right? Is it at all useful?

No.

[A Drowned Kernel]

5 votes in three hours...yep, I still got it.

I really don't think Eddie would play exactly the same way he did last time he was scum, and he just hit basically all the marks he was hitting before (then again I was his scumbuddy so I have some confirmation bias). On the other hand, joth's playing his townmeta a little bit too perfectly now.

gkrieg is scum, EFHW is town, Debatepro is null.

Damn, MiX got me...

I'm very much starting to get partner vibes from gkrieg and mix

[A Drowned Kernel]

Honestly I like most of what I see so far.

What do you like of what you saw so far?

Mainly that people were posting without contrived RVS votes, which seemed relaxed and non-scummy of them. Then mix self-voted and that ended.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Setup talk is bad here, I think, so let's not.

This is a town tell for ADK, I suppose.

?

Last game ADK was scum and started the game off with a ton of setup talk. That’s the joke.

Terrible joke, ADK not discussion setup's null precisely because of that.

Scum team: joth/gkrieg/ss/e, mcmc's survivor. There, game solved. Oh, except I'm not sure who's traitor yet.

There's too much scum on this list. Townslip or scum calculating a "townslip"?

But I'm actually feeling less strong about mix, so unvote

[A Drowned Kernel]

Read the thread a bit more and I think I like a vote: silverspawn

Man, it must be a while since I was last in a game with them. My new(ish) phone doesn't recognize their name. silverspawn.

Working on it. Should be good soon. Google learns fast. silverspawn.

Got it.

Why silver?

[A Drowned Kernel]

good case. vote: pps

I mean, clearly I’ve been made redundant with this mix guy around. Self votes, check, calls the scum team D1, check, makes nearly incomprehensible analysis that is useless to everyone but maybe himself, check. I mean, I got nothing left to do here.

Well then vote: pps

[pingpongsam]

good case. vote: pps

I mean, clearly I’ve been made redundant with this mix guy around. Self votes, check, calls the scum team D1, check, makes nearly incomprehensible analysis that is useless to everyone but maybe himself, check. I mean, I got nothing left to do here.

Well then vote: pps

One of us has to go, right? Can’t have two of this personality. This other guy seems to want to talk setup. You know I won’t do that. I’m usually good for an exciting fake claim with major plot holes if I am scum. Who doesn’t want fun and excitement?

[ashersky]

gkrieg's vote on me for the plan thing is super lazy.

Basically, all {ashersky,plan} posts are lazy and need to stop.  It was a meta thing like a year and a half ago.  It's personally exhausting and annoying at this point.

Yes, I still think about things and occasionally have plan-like ideas.  No, it is not an important thing anymore.

I mean, if anything, I definitely plan more as scum anyway.

[ashersky]

As for the setup, I don't see any particular reason why the game ends on N1.  Is it technically possible given the setup?  Yes.  But it'd pretty unlikely, even given my terrible knowledge of statistics and probability.

5 scum + D1 mislynch + 2 PGOs being targeted separately by townies + N1 Town NKed + N1 Town Vigged = 5v5 on D2 open.  But man, no way that ever happens.

There's also nothing scummy about laying this all out -- if I can figure it out, so can scum.

[ashersky]

I think not talking about how certain roles should be played (if they exist) is a better bit of advice, possibly.  A player's skill level could make the difference there, but without knowing alignments, it's tough to know if we want to help.

[2.71828.....]

I hope we don't do another misbegotten ashersky lynch this game. Those last few posts read very town to me

[Swowl]

Hey all

I am going to assume I am missing something regarding the game, because I do not see how set up discussion here is bad (at least compared to... literally every other game I have played on this site where it is deemed either good, or just a nuisance). This is the first time while I have played it has been viewed as "bad".

If anything there is ambiguity surrounding all options in this set up more so than most we play.


*Insert standard wall post where I go over the details that I am leaving out because "talking about the set up is bad"*


If you read the above, or the set up, you will notice there are essentially 3 levels of information a player can have:

1) Skum - Know what they picked/have. They know how many other roles outside of the template one's exist. They don't know who is what role.

2) Town - Know themselves. Know what roles exist in the game. Same as always.

3) Third Party - Knows their role. Knows what roles exist in the game. Same as it could always be.


So, I don't get why people are opposed to the idea. I also do not see a huge upside I suppose. I think I find the thought of being against talking about it skummy though.

[Swowl]

gkrieg's vote on me for the plan thing is super lazy.

Basically, all {ashersky,plan} posts are lazy and need to stop.  It was a meta thing like a year and a half ago.  It's personally exhausting and annoying at this point.

Yes, I still think about things and occasionally have plan-like ideas.  No, it is not an important thing anymore.

I mean, if anything, I definitely plan more as scum anyway.

I read this and then immediately went digging for this:

Also, for the record, hating on ashersky plans is just a hipster contrarianism thing to do. As Awaclus points out subconsciously, the efficacy of ashersky plans notwithstanding, the airing of, discussion of, and sometimes demolishing of ashersky plans is always pro-town. And generally they are pro-town regardless of my own alignment.

If you want to complain about ashersky plans, the correct way is to say it has zero bearing on my alignment so I deserve no town points for them. Unfortunately, I often do get scum points if I don’t have one, so partly this is all your fault.

Separate to this, using waiting for the plan as an excuse to not otherwise engage is not an acceptable action.

Do Ash plans have zero bearing on your alignment, or do you do them more often as skum?

[Uncleeurope]

I think the main concern people have with setup talk is connected to traitors.

I dunno, though.

Nor do I care, really.

But whatevs.

[ashersky]

gkrieg's vote on me for the plan thing is super lazy.

Basically, all {ashersky,plan} posts are lazy and need to stop.  It was a meta thing like a year and a half ago.  It's personally exhausting and annoying at this point.

Yes, I still think about things and occasionally have plan-like ideas.  No, it is not an important thing anymore.

I mean, if anything, I definitely plan more as scum anyway.

I read this and then immediately went digging for this:

Also, for the record, hating on ashersky plans is just a hipster contrarianism thing to do. As Awaclus points out subconsciously, the efficacy of ashersky plans notwithstanding, the airing of, discussion of, and sometimes demolishing of ashersky plans is always pro-town. And generally they are pro-town regardless of my own alignment.

If you want to complain about ashersky plans, the correct way is to say it has zero bearing on my alignment so I deserve no town points for them. Unfortunately, I often do get scum points if I don’t have one, so partly this is all your fault.

Separate to this, using waiting for the plan as an excuse to not otherwise engage is not an acceptable action.

Do Ash plans have zero bearing on your alignment, or do you do them more often as skum?

I hate phone posting. Lost my response.

Gist: both, there is a difference between “having a plan” and planning. Ask my scum partners from forever—I plan. So should you, btw.

The plan that gkrieg talks about is the public one I was forced to produce every game for years when I was active and one of the “best” players here. It became a farce.

You want a “plan”?  I can make one up. If you want my planning, check out our scum QT.  I already told you what I think you should do if you got PGO.

[MiX]

good case. vote: pps

I mean, clearly I’ve been made redundant with this mix guy around. Self votes, check, calls the scum team D1, check, makes nearly incomprehensible analysis that is useless to everyone but maybe himself, check. I mean, I got nothing left to do here.

Where do you think I got my inspiration?

Scum team: joth/gkrieg/ss/e, mcmc's survivor. There, game solved. Oh, except I'm not sure who's traitor yet.

There's too much scum on this list. Townslip or scum calculating a "townslip"?

But I'm actually feeling less strong about mix, so unvote

But...there's 4 scum.

good case. vote: pps

I mean, clearly I’ve been made redundant with this mix guy around. Self votes, check, calls the scum team D1, check, makes nearly incomprehensible analysis that is useless to everyone but maybe himself, check. I mean, I got nothing left to do here.

Well then vote: pps

One of us has to go, right? Can’t have two of this personality. This other guy seems to want to talk setup. You know I won’t do that. I’m usually good for an exciting fake claim with major plot holes if I am scum. Who doesn’t want fun and excitement?

Hopefully scum NKs one of us when they're tired of our nonsense. That's always my dream, but it never comes true...


ash's town. I think EFHW and Uncle have moved up in my scummy list...oh that reminds me I should setup my reads list, haven't played a D1 in too long apparently.

[mcmcsalot]

I’ll say I agree completely with ash’s self analysis.

[Debatepro]

If you read the above, or the set up, you will notice there are essentially 3 levels of information a player can have:
1) Skum - Know what they picked/have. They know how many other roles outside of the template one's exist. They don't know who is what role.
2) Town - Know themselves. Know what roles exist in the game. Same as always.
3) Third Party - Knows their role. Knows what roles exist in the game. Same as it could always be.
So, I don't get why people are opposed to the idea. I also do not see a huge upside I suppose. I think I find the thought of being against talking about it skummy though.

I think the upside of this post and asher's  breakdown of how game could end N1 (151) is helpful to level set knowledge and information. I couldn't figure out how the game ends in N1 and I think some players assume everyone is playing at the same speed and level.

The dogma that "helpful" isn't alignment indicative is a common refrain, but actually if you look at it in context with other posts, that it can be very useful. It seems to me that scum need chaos and uncertainty.

We have a moral obligation to hunt down the earth saving scum, lest we let self-replicating machines get off the rock and destroy the universe.

[A Drowned Kernel]

1) Skum - Know what they picked/have. They know how many other roles outside of the template one's exist. They don't know who is what role.

The issue is that some scum don't have this info, and scum doesn't know their traitor, and traitor potentially doesn't know who mafia is, and setup talk provides a way for them to signal to each other.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Scum team: joth/gkrieg/ss/e, mcmc's survivor. There, game solved. Oh, except I'm not sure who's traitor yet.

There's too much scum on this list. Townslip or scum calculating a "townslip"?

But I'm actually feeling less strong about mix, so unvote

But...there's 4 scum.

There's 3 scum and a traitor, your post lists 4 then adds the traitor

[mcmcsalot]

unvote

Adk you make it very hard to stay a block when you are voting for one of the members

[A Drowned Kernel]

unvote

Adk you make it very hard to stay a block when you are voting for one of the members

That's how i roll, deal with it

[WestCoastDidds]

Vote Count 1.2

MiX (2): pingpongsam, Debatepro
jotheonah (1): Uncleeurope
Uncleeurope (1): jotheonah
mcmcsalot (1): EFHW
ashersky (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2): MiX, 2.71828.....
pingpongsam (3): silverspawn, pubby, A Drowned Kernel

Not Voting (4): Glooble, DatSwan, ashersky, mcmcsalot

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends on June 10, 2019, 10:00:00 am.

[MiX]

Scum team: joth/gkrieg/ss/e, mcmc's survivor. There, game solved. Oh, except I'm not sure who's traitor yet.

There's too much scum on this list. Townslip or scum calculating a "townslip"?

But I'm actually feeling less strong about mix, so unvote

But...there's 4 scum.

There's 3 scum and a traitor, your post lists 4 then adds the traitor

Ah, I thought this was the case. I meant "I don't know who is the traitor from those 4".

Debatepro seems to have a very...peculiar...flavour, and judging from mine I'd say he's town. Weird.

[EFHW]

1) Skum - Know what they picked/have. They know how many other roles outside of the template one's exist. They don't know who is what role.

The issue is that some scum don't have this info, and scum doesn't know their traitor, and traitor potentially doesn't know who mafia is, and setup talk provides a way for them to signal to each other.

I don't agree with this. Let them signal. Everyone is listening. We want everyone to talk.

[2.71828.....]

@mod, I am voting silverspawn not PPS

[A Drowned Kernel]

Scum team: joth/gkrieg/ss/e, mcmc's survivor. There, game solved. Oh, except I'm not sure who's traitor yet.

There's too much scum on this list. Townslip or scum calculating a "townslip"?

But I'm actually feeling less strong about mix, so unvote

But...there's 4 scum.

There's 3 scum and a traitor, your post lists 4 then adds the traitor

Ah, I thought this was the case. I meant "I don't know who is the traitor from those 4".

Debatepro seems to have a very...peculiar...flavour, and judging from mine I'd say he's town. Weird.

So not a township, then. But the fact that you're not playing it up as one is promising

[WestCoastDidds]

Vote Count 1.2 corrected

MiX (2): pingpongsam, Debatepro
jotheonah (1): Uncleeurope
Uncleeurope (1): jotheonah
mcmcsalot (1): EFHW
ashersky (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2): MiX, 2.71828.....
pingpongsam (3): silverspawn, pubby, A Drowned Kernel

Not Voting (4): Glooble, DatSwan, ashersky, mcmcsalot

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends on June 10, 2019, 10:00:00 am.

[Swowl]

gkrieg's vote on me for the plan thing is super lazy.

Basically, all {ashersky,plan} posts are lazy and need to stop.  It was a meta thing like a year and a half ago.  It's personally exhausting and annoying at this point.

Yes, I still think about things and occasionally have plan-like ideas.  No, it is not an important thing anymore.

I mean, if anything, I definitely plan more as scum anyway.

I read this and then immediately went digging for this:

Also, for the record, hating on ashersky plans is just a hipster contrarianism thing to do. As Awaclus points out subconsciously, the efficacy of ashersky plans notwithstanding, the airing of, discussion of, and sometimes demolishing of ashersky plans is always pro-town. And generally they are pro-town regardless of my own alignment.

If you want to complain about ashersky plans, the correct way is to say it has zero bearing on my alignment so I deserve no town points for them. Unfortunately, I often do get scum points if I don’t have one, so partly this is all your fault.

Separate to this, using waiting for the plan as an excuse to not otherwise engage is not an acceptable action.

Do Ash plans have zero bearing on your alignment, or do you do them more often as skum?

I hate phone posting. Lost my response.

Gist: both, there is a difference between “having a plan” and planning. Ask my scum partners from forever—I plan. So should you, btw.

The plan that gkrieg talks about is the public one I was forced to produce every game for years when I was active and one of the “best” players here. It became a farce.

You want a “plan”?  I can make one up. If you want my planning, check out our scum QT.  I already told you what I think you should do if you got PGO.

Plan being the aside point - I was more fixated on the contradictions between the two posts.

[gkrieg13]

Setup talk is bad here, I think, so let's not.

This is a town tell for ADK, I suppose.

?

Last game ADK was scum and started the game off with a ton of setup talk. That’s the joke.

Terrible joke, ADK not discussion setup's null precisely because of that.

Scum team: joth/gkrieg/ss/e, mcmc's survivor. There, game solved. Oh, except I'm not sure who's traitor yet.

There's too much scum on this list. Townslip or scum calculating a "townslip"?

But I'm actually feeling less strong about mix, so unvote

Uh it isn’t too much scum?

[gkrieg13]

gkrieg's vote on me for the plan thing is super lazy.

Basically, all {ashersky,plan} posts are lazy and need to stop.  It was a meta thing like a year and a half ago.  It's personally exhausting and annoying at this point.

Yes, I still think about things and occasionally have plan-like ideas.  No, it is not an important thing anymore.

I mean, if anything, I definitely plan more as scum anyway.

I read this and then immediately went digging for this:

Also, for the record, hating on ashersky plans is just a hipster contrarianism thing to do. As Awaclus points out subconsciously, the efficacy of ashersky plans notwithstanding, the airing of, discussion of, and sometimes demolishing of ashersky plans is always pro-town. And generally they are pro-town regardless of my own alignment.

If you want to complain about ashersky plans, the correct way is to say it has zero bearing on my alignment so I deserve no town points for them. Unfortunately, I often do get scum points if I don’t have one, so partly this is all your fault.

Separate to this, using waiting for the plan as an excuse to not otherwise engage is not an acceptable action.

Do Ash plans have zero bearing on your alignment, or do you do them more often as skum?

I hate phone posting. Lost my response.

Gist: both, there is a difference between “having a plan” and planning. Ask my scum partners from forever—I plan. So should you, btw.

The plan that gkrieg talks about is the public one I was forced to produce every game for years when I was active and one of the “best” players here. It became a farce.

You want a “plan”?  I can make one up. If you want my planning, check out our scum QT.  I already told you what I think you should do if you got PGO.

But it is possible that not having a plan was your plan all along.

[gkrieg13]

1) Skum - Know what they picked/have. They know how many other roles outside of the template one's exist. They don't know who is what role.

The issue is that some scum don't have this info, and scum doesn't know their traitor, and traitor potentially doesn't know who mafia is, and setup talk provides a way for them to signal to each other.

I don't agree with this. Let them signal. Everyone is listening. We want everyone to talk.

As someone who has been lynched for extremely obvious signaling, I agree with this here. I think it is much less likely they successfully signal and no one from town catches it than they out themselves and we can lynch them.

[MiX]

1) Skum - Know what they picked/have. They know how many other roles outside of the template one's exist. They don't know who is what role.

The issue is that some scum don't have this info, and scum doesn't know their traitor, and traitor potentially doesn't know who mafia is, and setup talk provides a way for them to signal to each other.

I don't agree with this. Let them signal. Everyone is listening. We want everyone to talk.

As someone who has been lynched for extremely obvious signaling, I agree with this here. I think it is much less likely they successfully signal and no one from town catches it than they out themselves and we can lynch them.

We can also continue to help the Traitor know how they should play and what we expect of him, that's always nice.

Vote: gkrieg

[2.71828.....]

All this talk about plans.

*Insert Joker meme about introducing anarchy*

[2.71828.....]

gkrieg's vote on me for the plan thing is super lazy.

Basically, all {ashersky,plan} posts are lazy and need to stop.  It was a meta thing like a year and a half ago.  It's personally exhausting and annoying at this point.

Yes, I still think about things and occasionally have plan-like ideas.  No, it is not an important thing anymore.

I mean, if anything, I definitely plan more as scum anyway.

I read this and then immediately went digging for this:

Also, for the record, hating on ashersky plans is just a hipster contrarianism thing to do. As Awaclus points out subconsciously, the efficacy of ashersky plans notwithstanding, the airing of, discussion of, and sometimes demolishing of ashersky plans is always pro-town. And generally they are pro-town regardless of my own alignment.

If you want to complain about ashersky plans, the correct way is to say it has zero bearing on my alignment so I deserve no town points for them. Unfortunately, I often do get scum points if I don’t have one, so partly this is all your fault.

Separate to this, using waiting for the plan as an excuse to not otherwise engage is not an acceptable action.

Do Ash plans have zero bearing on your alignment, or do you do them more often as skum?

I hate phone posting. Lost my response.

Gist: both, there is a difference between “having a plan” and planning. Ask my scum partners from forever—I plan. So should you, btw.

The plan that gkrieg talks about is the public one I was forced to produce every game for years when I was active and one of the “best” players here. It became a farce.

You want a “plan”?  I can make one up. If you want my planning, check out our scum QT.  I already told you what I think you should do if you got PGO.

Plan being the aside point - I was more fixated on the contradictions between the two posts.

I am sure if I search hard enough I can find you contradict yourself in two different mafia games.

Vote: Datswan

[gkrieg13]

1) Skum - Know what they picked/have. They know how many other roles outside of the template one's exist. They don't know who is what role.

The issue is that some scum don't have this info, and scum doesn't know their traitor, and traitor potentially doesn't know who mafia is, and setup talk provides a way for them to signal to each other.

I don't agree with this. Let them signal. Everyone is listening. We want everyone to talk.

As someone who has been lynched for extremely obvious signaling, I agree with this here. I think it is much less likely they successfully signal and no one from town catches it than they out themselves and we can lynch them.

We can also continue to help the Traitor know how they should play and what we expect of him, that's always nice.

Vote: gkrieg

But you don't think EFWH is scummy for saying essentially the same thing?

[jotheonah]

I cannot get into this game guys. Try as I might.

One thing I'm thinking about is mcmc's voting bloc. How does scum react to this idea (assuming, for the purposes of argument that it was a serious plan)? Do they want to be part of the bloc so they can steer it? Do they want to avoid it so their vote is less constrained?

I found MiX's reaction to the bloc -- really wanting to get in and even voting for himself to prove his loyalty -- to be the only interesting reaction. I think it might be scummy.

I know most of us saw that whole thing as a little silly, but I can see scum seeing it as a little scary and feeling the need to react to it, or become part of it, as quickly as possible.

I guess that's enough for me to vote: MiX

[MiX]

1) Skum - Know what they picked/have. They know how many other roles outside of the template one's exist. They don't know who is what role.

The issue is that some scum don't have this info, and scum doesn't know their traitor, and traitor potentially doesn't know who mafia is, and setup talk provides a way for them to signal to each other.

I don't agree with this. Let them signal. Everyone is listening. We want everyone to talk.

As someone who has been lynched for extremely obvious signaling, I agree with this here. I think it is much less likely they successfully signal and no one from town catches it than they out themselves and we can lynch them.

We can also continue to help the Traitor know how they should play and what we expect of him, that's always nice.

Vote: gkrieg

But you don't think EFWH is scummy for saying essentially the same thing?

I do.

[MiX]

I cannot get into this game guys. Try as I might.

One thing I'm thinking about is mcmc's voting bloc. How does scum react to this idea (assuming, for the purposes of argument that it was a serious plan)? Do they want to be part of the bloc so they can steer it? Do they want to avoid it so their vote is less constrained?

I found MiX's reaction to the bloc -- really wanting to get in and even voting for himself to prove his loyalty -- to be the only interesting reaction. I think it might be scummy.

I know most of us saw that whole thing as a little silly, but I can see scum seeing it as a little scary and feeling the need to react to it, or become part of it, as quickly as possible.

I guess that's enough for me to vote: MiX

What makes you think scum would react more to the block than town? As scum, as much as they know, there's a traitor in there, why would they be scared?

[pingpongsam]

Is tunneling on the notion of a traitor in the same vein as tunneling on finding the SK (i.e. scumtell)?

[Glooble]

Is tunneling on the notion of a traitor in the same vein as tunneling on finding the SK (i.e. scumtell)?

I would think not. Scum actually wants the SK lynched. They absolutely do not want the traitor lynched. Big difference.

[jotheonah]

I cannot get into this game guys. Try as I might.

One thing I'm thinking about is mcmc's voting bloc. How does scum react to this idea (assuming, for the purposes of argument that it was a serious plan)? Do they want to be part of the bloc so they can steer it? Do they want to avoid it so their vote is less constrained?

I found MiX's reaction to the bloc -- really wanting to get in and even voting for himself to prove his loyalty -- to be the only interesting reaction. I think it might be scummy.

I know most of us saw that whole thing as a little silly, but I can see scum seeing it as a little scary and feeling the need to react to it, or become part of it, as quickly as possible.

I guess that's enough for me to vote: MiX

What makes you think scum would react more to the block than town? As scum, as much as they know, there's a traitor in there, why would they be scared?

I think scum just tends to spook more easily. When I play as scum I'm kind of paranoid about being discovered and about ending up the day 1 lynch. It can lead to overreacting to innocuous things. See also: freaking out about small wagons.

[Debatepro]

I know most of us saw that whole thing as a little silly, but I can see scum seeing it as a little scary and feeling the need to react to it, or become part of it, as quickly as possible.

Eh.. Let's not lump all the votes on MiX under this banner. It's "post hoc ergo propter hoc". I am town and I like voting for MiX. I might always vote for him in N1.

[Debatepro]

Can a friendly town person please give me a high-level explanation of what the traitor is and how it works? I've never played with one and read the mafia wiki on it, but I'm still unsure how it works in or could work in this game.

[pingpongsam]

Is tunneling on the notion of a traitor in the same vein as tunneling on finding the SK (i.e. scumtell)?

I would think not. Scum actually wants the SK lynched. They absolutely do not want the traitor lynched. Big difference.

Okay, that makes a lot more sense than I was thinking any argument against possibly could have. I can see how dense I was being.

[2.71828.....]

Can a friendly town person please give me a high-level explanation of what the traitor is and how it works? I've never played with one and read the mafia wiki on it, but I'm still unsure how it works in or could work in this game.

friendly - check
high level - very questionable

Traitor is a member of the mafia (NOT a 3rd party).  So in this game just think of it as we have 4 mafia, 1 third party

In a vanilla run of this setup (no modifications) the 3 normal mafia will share the mafia qt, they do not know the traitor, and the traitor doesn't know them.  If the mafia NK the traitor, instead of the traitor dying the traitor becomes a regular member of the mafia and has access to the qt.  If modifications are selected then they occur as stated, but just think of the vanilla style and modify from there.

[silverspawn]

Is tunneling on the notion of a traitor in the same vein as tunneling on finding the SK (i.e. scumtell)?

SK hunting has never been a scum tell, so it doesn't really matter. People think it's a scum tell, but they're all wrong.

[silverspawn]

What e said, and also the traitor cannot use the NK as long as he hasn't been recruited (i.e. the mafia targeted them with the NK).

[pingpongsam]

Is tunneling on the notion of a traitor in the same vein as tunneling on finding the SK (i.e. scumtell)?

SK hunting has never been a scum tell, so it doesn't really matter. People think it's a scum tell, but they're all wrong.

No, you are pretty much verifiably wrong, there.

[pingpongsam]

They way I view traitor (in vanilla) is that town is sufficiently strong to allow scum another man but not so strong as to make him part of the starting team.

[gkrieg13]

1) Skum - Know what they picked/have. They know how many other roles outside of the template one's exist. They don't know who is what role.

The issue is that some scum don't have this info, and scum doesn't know their traitor, and traitor potentially doesn't know who mafia is, and setup talk provides a way for them to signal to each other.

I don't agree with this. Let them signal. Everyone is listening. We want everyone to talk.

As someone who has been lynched for extremely obvious signaling, I agree with this here. I think it is much less likely they successfully signal and no one from town catches it than they out themselves and we can lynch them.

We can also continue to help the Traitor know how they should play and what we expect of him, that's always nice.

Vote: gkrieg

But you don't think EFWH is scummy for saying essentially the same thing?

I do.

Why am I scummier than EFHW?

[gkrieg13]

What e said, and also the traitor cannot use the NK as long as he hasn't been recruited (i.e. the mafia targeted them with the NK).

Or in most setups the traitor inherits the night kill if they are the last mafia left alive.

[MiX]

Why am I scummier than EFHW?

You explained a point that didn't have to be explained further, and in fact I think it was anti-town to explain it. EFHW left it more in the wind.

On the other hand you're town now and EFHW's scummier still, so maybe I was wrong.

Vote: ss

[EFHW]

MiX is fickle.

[EFHW]

I see ash's point about wanting to get out of the plan business. People like to rely on them as a way to get out of RVS, but why should he be responsible for doing that every game? Also, they are NAI. And finally, that post DatSwan found is 5 months old and not even a contradiction, really.

[Glooble]

MiX is fickle.

In other news, the Pope is Catholic.

One of these games I'll learn how to read MiX.

I see ash's point about wanting to get out of the plan business. People like to rely on them as a way to get out of RVS, but why should he be responsible for doing that every game? Also, they are NAI. And finally, that post DatSwan found is 5 months old and not even a contradiction, really.

I was thinking this too. I think I like vote: DatSwan better than MiX for now.

[EFHW]

I'm realizing that DatSwan is getting a meta for imprecision. Anyone else I would have voted for misreading ash (plans vs. planning) and mischaracterizing a post. I don't think that's a great meta for us to accept complacently, so vote: DatSwan anyway.

PPE: Glooble

[jotheonah]

Unofficial vote count (because I wanted one after that flurry of votes so I figured others might too)

pingpongsam (3): silverspawn, pubby, A Drowned Kernel
DatSwan (3): 2.71828….., Glooble, EFHW
MiX (3): pingpongsam, Debatepro, jotheonah
silverspawn (1): MiX
jotheonah (1): Uncleeurope
ashersky (1): gkrieg13

Not Voting (3): DatSwan, ashersky, mcmcsalot

8 to lynch. So we have three cute lil' miniwagons and like a good week before deadline.

[MiX]

I'm realizing that DatSwan is getting a meta for imprecision. Anyone else I would have voted for misreading ash (plans vs. planning) and mischaracterizing a post. I don't think that's a great meta for us to accept complacently, so vote: DatSwan anyway.

PPE: Glooble

We did that last time, and that's how we lynched scum. I seriously doubt he would do this on purpose this game.

[Glooble]

I'm realizing that DatSwan is getting a meta for imprecision. Anyone else I would have voted for misreading ash (plans vs. planning) and mischaracterizing a post. I don't think that's a great meta for us to accept complacently, so vote: DatSwan anyway.

PPE: Glooble

We did that last time, and that's how we lynched scum. I seriously doubt he would do this on purpose this game.

He's not doing the same thing though. In that game DatSwan spent a lot of day 1 just straight up pretending to have misread crucial portions of the setup (I assume to make people think he couldn't possibly be scum, since scum think harder about that stuff and have a QT to discuss it before the game starts.)  That's very different than presenting a misleading case on another player.

[MiX]

I'm realizing that DatSwan is getting a meta for imprecision. Anyone else I would have voted for misreading ash (plans vs. planning) and mischaracterizing a post. I don't think that's a great meta for us to accept complacently, so vote: DatSwan anyway.

PPE: Glooble

We did that last time, and that's how we lynched scum. I seriously doubt he would do this on purpose this game.

He's not doing the same thing though. In that game DatSwan spent a lot of day 1 just straight up pretending to have misread crucial portions of the setup (I assume to make people think he couldn't possibly be scum, since scum think harder about that stuff and have a QT to discuss it before the game starts.)  That's very different than presenting a misleading case on another player.

And when has Swan presented a case on ash? He merely pointed out an inconsistency, which was something I was also thinking about knowing how ash talked about plans in the recent past.

[Glooble]

I'm realizing that DatSwan is getting a meta for imprecision. Anyone else I would have voted for misreading ash (plans vs. planning) and mischaracterizing a post. I don't think that's a great meta for us to accept complacently, so vote: DatSwan anyway.

PPE: Glooble

We did that last time, and that's how we lynched scum. I seriously doubt he would do this on purpose this game.

He's not doing the same thing though. In that game DatSwan spent a lot of day 1 just straight up pretending to have misread crucial portions of the setup (I assume to make people think he couldn't possibly be scum, since scum think harder about that stuff and have a QT to discuss it before the game starts.)  That's very different than presenting a misleading case on another player.

And when has Swan presented a case on ash? He merely pointed out an inconsistency, which was something I was also thinking about knowing how ash talked about plans in the recent past.

I suppose you're right that DatSwan didn't exactly make a case on Ash. Or rather, the case was implied by his question, but not stated outright.  Either way, the point is he mischaracterized ash's statement. And that's scummy.

[MiX]

I'm realizing that DatSwan is getting a meta for imprecision. Anyone else I would have voted for misreading ash (plans vs. planning) and mischaracterizing a post. I don't think that's a great meta for us to accept complacently, so vote: DatSwan anyway.

PPE: Glooble

We did that last time, and that's how we lynched scum. I seriously doubt he would do this on purpose this game.

He's not doing the same thing though. In that game DatSwan spent a lot of day 1 just straight up pretending to have misread crucial portions of the setup (I assume to make people think he couldn't possibly be scum, since scum think harder about that stuff and have a QT to discuss it before the game starts.)  That's very different than presenting a misleading case on another player.

And when has Swan presented a case on ash? He merely pointed out an inconsistency, which was something I was also thinking about knowing how ash talked about plans in the recent past.

I suppose you're right that DatSwan didn't exactly make a case on Ash. Or rather, the case was implied by his question, but not stated outright.  Either way, the point is he mischaracterized ash's statement. And that's scummy.

In what do you base your suspicion that scum is more likely to misinterpret and mischaracterize ash's statement?

[Glooble]

In what do you base your suspicion that scum is more likely to misinterpret and mischaracterize ash's statement?

Not sure I understand your question. Misinterpret and Mischaracterize are very different things.

Scum is more likely to mischaracterize ash's statement because that helps them win. Intentionally mischaracterizing another player's statement as town is very bad play.

Scum isn't any more likely to misinterpret ash's statement, but I don't think that's what happened here.

[MiX]

In what do you base your suspicion that scum is more likely to misinterpret and mischaracterize ash's statement?

Not sure I understand your question. Misinterpret and Mischaracterize are very different things.

Scum is more likely to mischaracterize ash's statement because that helps them win. Intentionally mischaracterizing another player's statement as town is very bad play.

Scum isn't any more likely to misinterpret ash's statement, but I don't think that's what happened here.

Intentionally misinterpretting exists, but I suppose that's just mischaracterizing?

How does mischaracterizing ash's statement help scum win?

[Debatepro]

In what do you base your suspicion that scum is more likely to misinterpret and mischaracterize ash's statement?

Not sure I understand your question. Misinterpret and Mischaracterize are very different things.

Scum is more likely to mischaracterize ash's statement because that helps them win. Intentionally mischaracterizing another player's statement as town is very bad play.

Scum isn't any more likely to misinterpret ash's statement, but I don't think that's what happened here.

Is the end result of the dialog around mischaractorizion plan vs. planning that DS gets scum points. Am I interpreting the intent correctly?

[Glooble]

How does mischaracterizing ash's statement help scum win?

This is kinda mafia 101 isn’t it? Scum wants town players to be more suspicious of other town players. Scum also wants to look like they’re scum hunting. In the scenario where DatSwan is scum and ash is town, DatSwan’s statement accomplishes both those things.

[silverspawn]

Scum isn't any more likely to misinterpret ash's statement, but I don't think that's what happened here.

This is another piece of very well established common wisdom that I suspect might be completely untrue. I very rarely intentionally mischaracterize people as scum.

[silverspawn]

I notice that most of my posts are very non-commital general comments. That's because I don't have any strong feelings towards anyone yet that i could share. I also notice that I'm very self aware. Don't vote for me because of that, it's not a scum tell.

[MiX]

How does mischaracterizing ash's statement help scum win?

This is kinda mafia 101 isn’t it? Scum wants town players to be more suspicious of other town players. Scum also wants to look like they’re scum hunting. In the scenario where DatSwan is scum and ash is town, DatSwan’s statement accomplishes both those things.

You're still acting like Swan thinks this is at all alignment indicative, which might be false. I also fail to see in what world Swan would think that tidbit would make people scumread ash.

Scum isn't any more likely to misinterpret ash's statement, but I don't think that's what happened here.

This is another piece of very well established common wisdom that I suspect might be completely untrue. I very rarely intentionally mischaracterize people as scum.

That's another very true statement, said by scum themselves!

I notice that most of my posts are very non-commital general comments. That's because I don't have any strong feelings towards anyone yet that i could share. I also notice that I'm very self aware. Don't vote for me because of that, it's not a scum tell.

This defensiveness is, however.

[Uncleeurope]

Vote: MiX

[MiX]

Vote: MiX

Explain.

[Glooble]

I also fail to see in what world Swan would think that tidbit would make people scumread ash.

Really? Ash basically said (sorry can’t quote I’m on mobile) “I’m more likely to make a plan as scum” and several months ago said “my plans aren’t alignment indicative”. The implicit argument in Swan’s Question is “he contradicted himself so one of the statements must be a lie”. And since the older statement was in a game where ash was town, the further implication is that it is the quote from this game that is, in fact, the lie.

That was my interpretation anyway. But maybe I’m reading too much into Swan’s post.

Anyway, this has been a fun Socratic discussion but my phone is about to die so I will be back in a few hours probably.

[silverspawn]

This defensiveness is, however.

No.

[MiX]

This defensiveness is, however.

No.

Unvote

[WestCoastDidds]

Vote Count 1.3

MiX (4): pingpongsam, Debatepro, jotheonah, Uncleeurope
ashersky (1): gkrieg13
pingpongsam (3): silverspawn, pubby, A Drowned Kernel
DatSwan (3): 2.71828....., Glooble, EFHW


Not Voting (4): DatSwan, ashersky, mcmcsalot, MiX

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends on June 10, 2019, 10:00:00 am.

[gkrieg13]

Of those, I don't really like the PPS wagon, I like the Datswan wagon, and don't think the MiX wagon is for very good reasons, although I think the people on the MiX wagon are probably town.

vote: Datswan

[gkrieg13]

In what do you base your suspicion that scum is more likely to misinterpret and mischaracterize ash's statement?

Not sure I understand your question. Misinterpret and Mischaracterize are very different things.

Scum is more likely to mischaracterize ash's statement because that helps them win. Intentionally mischaracterizing another player's statement as town is very bad play.

Scum isn't any more likely to misinterpret ash's statement, but I don't think that's what happened here.

Intentionally misinterpretting exists, but I suppose that's just mischaracterizing?

How does mischaracterizing ash's statement help scum win?

If ash is town, ash is easy to mislynch, so getting a wagon going on him is a pretty good idea.

[gkrieg13]

I notice that most of my posts are very non-commital general comments. That's because I don't have any strong feelings towards anyone yet that i could share. I also notice that I'm very self aware. Don't vote for me because of that, it's not a scum tell.

Ugh I want to vote for you so badly, but every game I have done that you end up being town. Although people not voting for you yet D1 is a scum tell for you.

[Debatepro]

If ash is town, ash is easy to mislynch, so getting a wagon going on him is a pretty good idea.

For scum? Aren't you voting for him?

[silverspawn]

I notice that most of my posts are very non-commital general comments. That's because I don't have any strong feelings towards anyone yet that i could share. I also notice that I'm very self aware. Don't vote for me because of that, it's not a scum tell.

Ugh I want to vote for you so badly, but every game I have done that you end up being town. Although people not voting for you yet D1 is a scum tell for you.

That... is probably empirically true, unfortunately.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'm realizing that DatSwan is getting a meta for imprecision. Anyone else I would have voted for misreading ash (plans vs. planning) and mischaracterizing a post. I don't think that's a great meta for us to accept complacently, so vote: DatSwan anyway.

PPE: Glooble

We did that last time, and that's how we lynched scum. I seriously doubt he would do this on purpose this game.

He's not doing the same thing though. In that game DatSwan spent a lot of day 1 just straight up pretending to have misread crucial portions of the setup (I assume to make people think he couldn't possibly be scum, since scum think harder about that stuff and have a QT to discuss it before the game starts.)  That's very different than presenting a misleading case on another player.

I have to more to say later but for the record, that was scum!swan sincerely misunderstanding the setup

[pubby]

I cannot get into this game guys. Try as I might.

That's OK. It means I won't feel guilty about...

vote: jotheonah

Not expecting to change my vote from this.

[gkrieg13]

If ash is town, ash is easy to mislynch, so getting a wagon going on him is a pretty good idea.

For scum? Aren't you voting for him?

Not any more.

[jotheonah]

I cannot get into this game guys. Try as I might.

That's OK. It means I won't feel guilty about...

vote: jotheonah

Not expecting to change my vote from this.

Are you expecting to explain your vote?

[ashersky]

For the record,  I don't actually scumread Swan for the hot take on plans.  I think the "I'm going to dig up an old quote" thing is more often from town trying to do a good thing. 

I don't think finding possible or actual contradictions to previous statements from previous games is all that useful, though.  But I think the idea that someone would want to do that is in general a town sentiment.

[ashersky]

Anyone else having the "not secure" problem on f.ds, btw?  Like the https thing is not working.

[EFHW]

unvote. DatSwan does this kind of thing a lot. It has gotten him lynched correctly and gotten him mislynched. My opinion is that scum isn't going to try a purposeful misdirect this early in the game.

[EFHW]

I cannot get into this game guys. Try as I might.

One thing I'm thinking about is mcmc's voting bloc. How does scum react to this idea (assuming, for the purposes of argument that it was a serious plan)? Do they want to be part of the bloc so they can steer it? Do they want to avoid it so their vote is less constrained?

I found MiX's reaction to the bloc -- really wanting to get in and even voting for himself to prove his loyalty -- to be the only interesting reaction. I think it might be scummy.

I know most of us saw that whole thing as a little silly, but I can see scum seeing it as a little scary and feeling the need to react to it, or become part of it, as quickly as possible.

I guess that's enough for me to vote: MiX

The bloc was never going to be a thing. I guess there was that one game where someone was looking to make non-voting pacts. Was that MiX? But day 1 who would trust multiple other people enough to make a bloc? So wanting to join looks like playing along to me.

If there WAS going to be a real bloc, then scum would want in.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Of those, I don't really like the PPS wagon, I like the Datswan wagon, and don't think the MiX wagon is for very good reasons, although I think the people on the MiX wagon are probably town.

vote: Datswan

Am I voting gkrieg yet? vote: gkrieg

[A Drowned Kernel]

Right now I'm feeling towny on: mix, SS, ash

Anyone else is pretty much up for grabs

[Uncleeurope]

Yup, Vote: gkrieg is fine with me.

[Swowl]

gkrieg's vote on me for the plan thing is super lazy.

Basically, all {ashersky,plan} posts are lazy and need to stop.  It was a meta thing like a year and a half ago.  It's personally exhausting and annoying at this point.

Yes, I still think about things and occasionally have plan-like ideas.  No, it is not an important thing anymore.

I mean, if anything, I definitely plan more as scum anyway.

I read this and then immediately went digging for this:

Also, for the record, hating on ashersky plans is just a hipster contrarianism thing to do. As Awaclus points out subconsciously, the efficacy of ashersky plans notwithstanding, the airing of, discussion of, and sometimes demolishing of ashersky plans is always pro-town. And generally they are pro-town regardless of my own alignment.

If you want to complain about ashersky plans, the correct way is to say it has zero bearing on my alignment so I deserve no town points for them. Unfortunately, I often do get scum points if I don’t have one, so partly this is all your fault.

Separate to this, using waiting for the plan as an excuse to not otherwise engage is not an acceptable action.

Do Ash plans have zero bearing on your alignment, or do you do them more often as skum?

I hate phone posting. Lost my response.

Gist: both, there is a difference between “having a plan” and planning. Ask my scum partners from forever—I plan. So should you, btw.

The plan that gkrieg talks about is the public one I was forced to produce every game for years when I was active and one of the “best” players here. It became a farce.

You want a “plan”?  I can make one up. If you want my planning, check out our scum QT.  I already told you what I think you should do if you got PGO.

Plan being the aside point - I was more fixated on the contradictions between the two posts.

I am sure if I search hard enough I can find you contradict yourself in two different mafia games.

Vote: Datswan

This vote would be null if I voted for ash. Since I did not, that means this vote is because....hell if I know actually, but it makes it skummier.

[Swowl]

I'm realizing that DatSwan is getting a meta for imprecision. Anyone else I would have voted for misreading ash (plans vs. planning) and mischaracterizing a post. I don't think that's a great meta for us to accept complacently, so vote: DatSwan anyway.

PPE: Glooble

I do not want this meta and I did not mis characterize anything.

[Swowl]

In what do you base your suspicion that scum is more likely to misinterpret and mischaracterize ash's statement?

Not sure I understand your question. Misinterpret and Mischaracterize are very different things.

Scum is more likely to mischaracterize ash's statement because that helps them win. Intentionally mischaracterizing another player's statement as town is very bad play.

Scum isn't any more likely to misinterpret ash's statement, but I don't think that's what happened here.

Intentionally misinterpretting exists, but I suppose that's just mischaracterizing?

How does mischaracterizing ash's statement help scum win?

If ash is town, ash is easy to mislynch, so getting a wagon going on him is a pretty good idea.

1) So... I never made an attempt at all to get a wagon Ash.

2) By your own logic, "If Swan is Town, then GK is skummy for mischaracterizing their statement". Or is that not what is happening here and you are just mis interpreting?

3) This is a game based on unknown opinions and reads by a community of players. You could literally apply your concept to ANY post that is not already verified as a fact about another player.

[Swowl]

Anyone else having the "not secure" problem on f.ds, btw?  Like the https thing is not working.

yes - for weeks now

[Swowl]

I'm realizing that DatSwan is getting a meta for imprecision. Anyone else I would have voted for misreading ash (plans vs. planning) and mischaracterizing a post. I don't think that's a great meta for us to accept complacently, so vote: DatSwan anyway.

PPE: Glooble

We did that last time, and that's how we lynched scum. I seriously doubt he would do this on purpose this game.

He's not doing the same thing though. In that game DatSwan spent a lot of day 1 just straight up pretending to have misread crucial portions of the setup (I assume to make people think he couldn't possibly be scum, since scum think harder about that stuff and have a QT to discuss it before the game starts.)  That's very different than presenting a misleading case on another player.

I have to more to say later but for the record, that was scum!swan sincerely misunderstanding the setup

ADK was my skum buddy and the skum thread is open now for that game. Please feel free to go back and check that I was sadly just being a freekin idiot.

[Swowl]

I also fail to see in what world Swan would think that tidbit would make people scumread ash.

Really? Ash basically said (sorry can’t quote I’m on mobile) “I’m more likely to make a plan as scum” and several months ago said “my plans aren’t alignment indicative”. The implicit argument in Swan’s Question is “he contradicted himself so one of the statements must be a lie”. And since the older statement was in a game where ash was town, the further implication is that it is the quote from this game that is, in fact, the lie.

That was my interpretation anyway. But maybe I’m reading too much into Swan’s post.

Anyway, this has been a fun Socratic discussion but my phone is about to die so I will be back in a few hours probably.

To clarify - my intention was exactly to insinuate this... but only to Ash to get an answer. I found their response about as towny as I suppose I could expect. To be specific... ash slightly deflected the point by making it about his lack of planning thus far. I doubt skum in that position risks doing that instead of simply battling back the way others ended up doing for him.

[MiX]

I cannot get into this game guys. Try as I might.

That's OK. It means I won't feel guilty about...

vote: jotheonah

Not expecting to change my vote from this.

Explain this and I will sheep.

Yup, Vote: gkrieg is fine with me.

Same as above.

[Uncleeurope]

I cannot get into this game guys. Try as I might.

That's OK. It means I won't feel guilty about...

vote: jotheonah

Not expecting to change my vote from this.

Explain this and I will sheep.

Yup, Vote: gkrieg is fine with me.

Same as above.

But I don't feeeeel like it.

[MiX]

All the votes on Swan are lazy and he has done nothing scummy.

Gkrieg, can you explain why Swan is scum?

unvote. DatSwan does this kind of thing a lot. It has gotten him lynched correctly and gotten him mislynched. My opinion is that scum isn't going to try a purposeful misdirect this early in the game.

Vote: EFHW

PPE: Fine, I guess you're just bussing then.

[Uncleeurope]

All the votes on Swan are lazy and he has done nothing scummy.

I agree.

Vote: EFHW

I disagree. (At least based on that post you quoted)

PPE: Fine, I guess you're just bussing then.

I disagree.

[faust]

Vote Count 1.4

MiX (3): pingpongsam, Debatepro, jotheonah
pingpongsam (1): silverspawn
DatSwan (3): 2.71828....., Glooble, gkrieg13
jotheonah (1): pubby
gkrieg13 (2): A Drowned Kernel, Uncleeurope
EFHW (1): MiX

Not Voting (4): DatSwan, ashersky, mcmcsalot, EFHW

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends on June 10, 2019, 10:00:00 am.

[2.71828.....]

gkrieg's vote on me for the plan thing is super lazy.

Basically, all {ashersky,plan} posts are lazy and need to stop.  It was a meta thing like a year and a half ago.  It's personally exhausting and annoying at this point.

Yes, I still think about things and occasionally have plan-like ideas.  No, it is not an important thing anymore.

I mean, if anything, I definitely plan more as scum anyway.

I read this and then immediately went digging for this:

Also, for the record, hating on ashersky plans is just a hipster contrarianism thing to do. As Awaclus points out subconsciously, the efficacy of ashersky plans notwithstanding, the airing of, discussion of, and sometimes demolishing of ashersky plans is always pro-town. And generally they are pro-town regardless of my own alignment.

If you want to complain about ashersky plans, the correct way is to say it has zero bearing on my alignment so I deserve no town points for them. Unfortunately, I often do get scum points if I don’t have one, so partly this is all your fault.

Separate to this, using waiting for the plan as an excuse to not otherwise engage is not an acceptable action.

Do Ash plans have zero bearing on your alignment, or do you do them more often as skum?

I hate phone posting. Lost my response.

Gist: both, there is a difference between “having a plan” and planning. Ask my scum partners from forever—I plan. So should you, btw.

The plan that gkrieg talks about is the public one I was forced to produce every game for years when I was active and one of the “best” players here. It became a farce.

You want a “plan”?  I can make one up. If you want my planning, check out our scum QT.  I already told you what I think you should do if you got PGO.

Plan being the aside point - I was more fixated on the contradictions between the two posts.

I am sure if I search hard enough I can find you contradict yourself in two different mafia games.

Vote: Datswan

This vote would be null if I voted for ash. Since I did not, that means this vote is because....hell if I know actually, but it makes it skummier.

Because accusing someone of being scummy and not voting then makes you...... Townie?

[Uncleeurope]

Vote: e

[jotheonah]

Anyone else having the "not secure" problem on f.ds, btw?  Like the https thing is not working.

Nah, if anything my insecurities are lessened here.

[A Drowned Kernel]

joth, do you still like your vote on mix?

[Glooble]

I have to more to say later but for the record, that was scum!swan sincerely misunderstanding the setup

ADK was my skum buddy and the skum thread is open now for that game. Please feel free to go back and check that I was sadly just being a freekin idiot.

I did check the scum QT. Here's what I found. It's interesting.

Here is a quote from DatSwan, Night 0, in the scum QT for the game in question:

4) Odd Night Promoter - This role is the most important thing to exist in the game imo. We know they exist, but on Day 2 it is unlikely that Town will know if the promoter is Town or Skum, which works in our favor. Combine that with the fact that they have no idea who town or skum is and could be setting up a Town V Town situation... if we see fit we can def get rid of them before they get a shot #2.

And here is his first post in the game itself:

Hey everyone! Good to have another game on here

Summary of thoughts:

1) Promoter Claim - Since we don't know if there is a Promoter, combined with the chance that there is a Mafia Promoter instead of a Town Promoter who could claim and then even "prove it" if we were to force the target options on them... I am not seeing a super upside for a Promoter Claim. Additionally, the Town Promoter is potentially a very strong role if I understand it correctly... but its value only grows as the game goes on. They get to enhance reads, isolate based on claims, etc... and all of that increases the chances of finding good targets. So yeah... I think I am against the Promoter Claim because I think Skum would probably want to get rid of them.

2) Joth is def the Jester.

Bolding mine. I can't see how you can read these two quotes and think scum!DatSwan was sincerely confused about the setup.

[mcmcsalot]

Anyone else having the "not secure" problem on f.ds, btw?  Like the https thing is not working.

Yes I am also having this problem. I’ll see if I can catch theory later today.

[jotheonah]

joth, do you still like your vote on mix?

Yes:

I cannot get into this game guys. Try as I might.

That's OK. It means I won't feel guilty about...

vote: jotheonah

Not expecting to change my vote from this.

Explain this and I will sheep.

This post is over-the-top scummy. MiX is saying "explain your completely unexplained vote and I'll join your wagon, [apparently regardless of how bad the explanation is]". Why even ask for the explanation? So you have a flimsy pretense for your scummy vote?

vote: MiX

[mcmcsalot]

I do think MiX is playing much more loosey goosey then I have seen him in the past but I’m not sure I care to lynch him now because I think I have a good ability to read him.

I actually think I’m going to join him vote: efhw

I was serious about the voting block. And am sad that it did not succeed in working together. I think her dismissal of it is interesting.

[MiX]

MiX is saying "explain your completely unexplained vote and I'll join your wagon, [apparently regardless of how bad the explanation is]"

It's sweet how you were scared that I would sheep him regardless of his explanation. I merely wanted an explanation.

This is when I would vote joth but I need to slow down my votes.

[jotheonah]

MiX is saying "explain your completely unexplained vote and I'll join your wagon, [apparently regardless of how bad the explanation is]"

It's sweet how you were scared that I would sheep him regardless of his explanation. I merely wanted an explanation.

This is when I would vote joth but I need to slow down my votes.

Really just taking you at your word, man. You could have said "Explain and maybe I'll sheep". Words mean things.

[MiX]

MiX is saying "explain your completely unexplained vote and I'll join your wagon, [apparently regardless of how bad the explanation is]"

It's sweet how you were scared that I would sheep him regardless of his explanation. I merely wanted an explanation.

This is when I would vote joth but I need to slow down my votes.

Really just taking you at your word, man. You could have said "Explain and maybe I'll sheep". Words mean things.

There's no reason for me to follow through my word, helps no one but maybe my townieness.

[A Drowned Kernel]

vote: joth

[mcmcsalot]

MiX is saying "explain your completely unexplained vote and I'll join your wagon, [apparently regardless of how bad the explanation is]"

It's sweet how you were scared that I would sheep him regardless of his explanation. I merely wanted an explanation.

This is when I would vote joth but I need to slow down my votes.

Really just taking you at your word, man. You could have said "Explain and maybe I'll sheep". Words mean things.

There's no reason for me to follow through my word, helps no one but maybe my townieness.

And you displaying a lack of towniness if you are town hurts town. Like a lot. I think people often overestimate their duty to find scum as town and underestimate their duty to convince others of their towniness.

[MiX]

MiX is saying "explain your completely unexplained vote and I'll join your wagon, [apparently regardless of how bad the explanation is]"

It's sweet how you were scared that I would sheep him regardless of his explanation. I merely wanted an explanation.

This is when I would vote joth but I need to slow down my votes.

Really just taking you at your word, man. You could have said "Explain and maybe I'll sheep". Words mean things.

There's no reason for me to follow through my word, helps no one but maybe my townieness.

And you displaying a lack of towniness if you are town hurts town. Like a lot. I think people often overestimate their duty to find scum as town and underestimate their duty to convince others of their towniness.

If you read my past town game you'll see me doing the opposite: almost disregarding scumhunting to look towny. Needless to say it wasn't very successful (although we did win...), regardless, I think there's a time to throw that away, at least at first: I really wanted to see how pubby reacted to it but I guess joth stole the reaction.

[EFHW]

I do think MiX is playing much more loosey goosey then I have seen him in the past but I’m not sure I care to lynch him now because I think I have a good ability to read him.

I actually think I’m going to join him vote: efhw

I was serious about the voting block. And am sad that it did not succeed in working together. I think her dismissal of it is interesting.

I didn't mean to dismiss your effort. I thought it was RVS. How did you imagine it working?

[silverspawn]

There's no reason for me to follow through my word

?
!
vote: MiX

[jotheonah]

MiX is saying "explain your completely unexplained vote and I'll join your wagon, [apparently regardless of how bad the explanation is]"

It's sweet how you were scared that I would sheep him regardless of his explanation. I merely wanted an explanation.

This is when I would vote joth but I need to slow down my votes.

Really just taking you at your word, man. You could have said "Explain and maybe I'll sheep". Words mean things.

There's no reason for me to follow through my word, helps no one but maybe my townieness.

And you displaying a lack of towniness if you are town hurts town. Like a lot. I think people often overestimate their duty to find scum as town and underestimate their duty to convince others of their towniness.

If you read my past town game you'll see me doing the opposite: almost disregarding scumhunting to look towny. Needless to say it wasn't very successful (although we did win...), regardless, I think there's a time to throw that away, at least at first: I really wanted to see how pubby reacted to it but I guess joth stole the reaction.

Clearly that town is 'when you have a largeish wagon on you' 

[MiX]

Clearly that town is 'when you have a largeish wagon on you' 

Indeed! How did you figure that out? 

There's no reason for me to follow through my word

?
!
vote: MiX

Beautiful.

[silverspawn]

MiX is saying "explain your completely unexplained vote and I'll join your wagon, [apparently regardless of how bad the explanation is]"

It's sweet how you were scared that I would sheep him regardless of his explanation. I merely wanted an explanation.

This is when I would vote joth but I need to slow down my votes.

Really just taking you at your word, man. You could have said "Explain and maybe I'll sheep". Words mean things.

There's no reason for me to follow through my word, helps no one but maybe my townieness.

And you displaying a lack of towniness if you are town hurts town. Like a lot. I think people often overestimate their duty to find scum as town and underestimate their duty to convince others of their towniness.

The argument is fallacious. It might indeed be more important to not get lynched if you're town than it is to scumhunt. But these are not two separate disciplines that you can independently invest time into, and the more time invest the better you do at them.

I think a much better way to look at it is this: the remaining player base is trying to figure out your alignment. If they're doing it right, then they will always consider your meta, i.e. there shouldn't be anyone who is generically less scummy and less likely to be lynched; everyone has the same probability of being scum, what we need is information that distinguishes your scum play from your normal play.

So if you're town and trying to play towny, well, that's the same thing you're doing as scum, so we don't have anything that distinguishes between the two. That doesn't mean it can't work in individual games, but it ought not to help you in expectation. On the other hand, if you're actually scumhunting, then that does distinguish between town!you and scum!you, because scum!you doesn't scumhunt, they're only pretending to scumhunt.

I.e.: if you focus on scumhunting, that ought to be the better strategy wrt not getting lynched.

[silverspawn]

Beautiful.

Just to clarify, you said that you have no reason to be honest as town and I policy voted you.

[MiX]

Beautiful.

Just to clarify, you said that you have no reason to be honest as town and I policy voted you.

Why do you think this helps town? Is this a policy vote or expressing a will to policy lynch? Correct me if they're the same.

[pingpongsam]

It's interesting how similar MiX plays to me. Here he is arguing the policing, man have I been there so many times. It's sobering to see how my behavior looks from a third person vantage point.

[jotheonah]

MiX said a thing, got heat for that thing, then immediately backed off of it (I wasn't really gonna do it) while still defending it (I was saying it to get info).

It's a reaction that makes me feel fine about my vote.

[mcmcsalot]

Silver I actually disagree strongly. I don’t mean to say your job to convince others of your towniness means you should try to look like town or try to play like town. I think those are very vague statements. I think you should do pro-town things, scum hunting is one of them but I don’t think it is the only pro-town behavior one can exhibit. Secondly I think scum hunting can be done in a non pro-town way and that is what I’m saying is bad. Scum hunting purely for the sake of finding scum is often not as valuable as being an incredibly pro-town player.

In this scenario scum “also trying to look like town” would result in scum actually helping town not just also trying to scumhunt in a non scummy seeming way.

[Debatepro]

What is the difference between sheeping and voting on an existing wagon without explanation?

[mcmcsalot]

I do think MiX is playing much more loosey goosey then I have seen him in the past but I’m not sure I care to lynch him now because I think I have a good ability to read him.

I actually think I’m going to join him vote: efhw

I was serious about the voting block. And am sad that it did not succeed in working together. I think her dismissal of it is interesting.

I didn't mean to dismiss your effort. I thought it was RVS. How did you imagine it working?

Exactly as proposed, a block of players voting together for day 1. I had slight town reads of adk and pps right off the bat, there are enough scum in the game taking two people off my lynch list didn’t seem too detrimental, and I thought it’s continued use and seriousness would actually provide some pretty interesting interaction that could have been examined later on. Sadly it fell apart very quickly and I don’t think there is another way to create it that isn’t influenced by scum.

[Debatepro]

Scum hunting purely for the sake of finding scum is often not as valuable as being an incredibly pro-town player.

Example?

[Debatepro]

Secondly I think scum hunting can be done in a non pro-town way and that is what I’m saying is bad.

Example?

Wrong quote for question: Corrected.

[mcmcsalot]

What is the difference between sheeping and voting on an existing wagon without explanation?

I think wheeling has gotten vaguer over time to be somewhat similar but.

Sheeping is meant to be following up on a vote with a vote of your own purely because you think the first player who voted is town or because you want to vote for the exact same reasons the first person stated.

Voting without an explanation could be a tactful vote whilst hiding your reasons or a lazy vote that doesn’t really have a reason.

[mcmcsalot]

Secondly I think scum hunting can be done in a non pro-town way and that is what I’m saying is bad.

Example?

Wrong quote for question: Corrected.

An over the top example would be as town fake claiming or lying about a result because you expect scum to react a certain way to the false result and thus will try to catch scum. This is negative town utility because lying as town almost always causes more confusion and trouble for town. It may have been successful for the player enacting the ruse to find scum but now the rest of town has reason not to trust that player and they may not be able to convince anyone of what they have discovered.

A more subtle example is voting “purely for reactions or pressure”. There are times that voting to pressure a player to response or react is good because it lets us know more about that player but because the explanation of “it was just a pressure vote” is a reasonable town response scum could manipulate that and make what would otherwise be a scummy vote look towny after he fact by claiming it was just for reactions.

Overall there are ways of scumhunting that while valid and occasionally very effective but are not in and of themselves pro-town.

[silverspawn]

Beautiful.

Just to clarify, you said that you have no reason to be honest as town and I policy voted you.

Why do you think this helps town? Is this a policy vote or expressing a will to policy lynch? Correct me if they're the same.

I'm not going to promise that I'll unvote you when you get close to being lynched; that would make the policy vote less effective. Maybe I will policy lynch you, maybe I won't. You definitely shouldn't intentionally lie-or-not-keep-promises as town.

[silverspawn]

This post is over-the-top scummy. MiX is saying "explain your completely unexplained vote and I'll join your wagon, [apparently regardless of how bad the explanation is]". Why even ask for the explanation? So you have a flimsy pretense for your scummy vote?

vote: MiX

Consider yourself being in scum!Mix shoes. Does this really seem like a plausible thought process?

[MiX]

Beautiful.

Just to clarify, you said that you have no reason to be honest as town and I policy voted you.

Why do you think this helps town? Is this a policy vote or expressing a will to policy lynch? Correct me if they're the same.

I'm not going to promise that I'll unvote you when you get close to being lynched; that would make the policy vote less effective. Maybe I will policy lynch you, maybe I won't. You definitely shouldn't intentionally lie-or-not-keep-promises as town.

So the key to not breaking promises is to not make them? Okay, I see.

@pubby, explain your vote and I'll probably sheep you.

[jotheonah]

This post is over-the-top scummy. MiX is saying "explain your completely unexplained vote and I'll join your wagon, [apparently regardless of how bad the explanation is]". Why even ask for the explanation? So you have a flimsy pretense for your scummy vote?

vote: MiX

Consider yourself being in scum!Mix shoes. Does this really seem like a plausible thought process?

I did say it was over the top.

[faust]

Vote Count 1.5

MiX (4): pingpongsam, Debatepro, jotheonah, silverspawn
DatSwan (3): 2.71828....., Glooble, gkrieg13
jotheonah (2): pubby, A Drowned Kernel
EFHW (2): MiX, mcmcsalot
2.71828..... (1): Uncleeurope

Not Voting (3): DatSwan, ashersky, EFHW

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends on June 10, 2019, 10:00:00 am.

[gkrieg13]

All the votes on Swan are lazy and he has done nothing scummy.

Gkrieg, can you explain why Swan is scum?

unvote. DatSwan does this kind of thing a lot. It has gotten him lynched correctly and gotten him mislynched. My opinion is that scum isn't going to try a purposeful misdirect this early in the game.

Vote: EFHW

PPE: Fine, I guess you're just bussing then.

He gave something that made it look like ash had contradicted himself and then didn't really comment on it. Scum likes to mention something and then let everyone else comment on it and then come back and comment on it later after they see how people respond to it.

[gkrieg13]

Mcmcsalot is town

[Debatepro]

@e, EFHW, Eddie - Any early reads?

[Uncleeurope]

Heh, you asked the “e” names.

[A Drowned Kernel]

@e, EFHW, Eddie - Any early reads?

Is there actually a reason to ask those particular people?

[pubby]

@pubby, explain your vote and I'll probably sheep you.

I think joth is trying harder than anyone else to appear innocent. I don't believe him when he says he's not "into" this game - I mean, he had opinions about voting blocs and strategy and even tallied up the votes for everyone.

But if he is town, I won't feel terrible if he's lynched. Because again, I'd rather lynch the guy who's not feeling the game than a player more involved.

[MiX]

Vote: joth sounds good, I might have to metaread EFHW since it's the first time I think she's scum.

[jotheonah]

@pubby, explain your vote and I'll probably sheep you.

I think joth is trying harder than anyone else to appear innocent. I don't believe him when he says he's not "into" this game - I mean, he had opinions about voting blocs and strategy and even tallied up the votes for everyone.

But if he is town, I won't feel terrible if he's lynched. Because again, I'd rather lynch the guy who's not feeling the game than a player more involved.

This game is the most important thing in the world to me.

[Debatepro]

@e, EFHW, Eddie - Any early reads?

Is there actually a reason to ask those particular people?

- I iso'd everyone
- I have played with each of them more than once (fds/lynchpool)
- I have been partners with them (lynchpool Less Pressure #2 & #5)
- I wanted to see what they had to say

[MiX]

@e, EFHW, Eddie - Any early reads?

Is there actually a reason to ask those particular people?

- I iso'd everyone
- I have played with each of them more than once (fds/lynchpool)
- I have been partners with them (lynchpool Less Pressure #2 & #5)
- I wanted to see what they had to say

What is your early read?

[mcmcsalot]

This game feels like it has stalled. Someone do something scummy.

[Debatepro]

I am about to be VLA for at least a week. My schedule will be more closely aligned to those playing in western Europe. I will try to check in at least once a day. The good news is, some of that time will be in the night so I won't miss anything.

Exceedingly early feelings for the record, perhaps it helps team "destroy the earth", I am fond of the impact from a large object hurling through space variety.

• I want to read more from e, efhw, and eddie because I feel like I know them better than other players. No ideas on PPS and pubby, because they are not saying much, and I don't know them very well. Asher hasn't said much, I did agree with his take on DS's plan v planning, and they were helpful. I think at least one scum tends to be inactive in d1. But I have not played many games and thus a small sample size.
• mcmc seems townie but being helpful is part of his meta. I may always equate being nice and helpful as a town trait. I’ll have to factor that into my calculation if I can.
• This DS issue with plan vs. planning seemed contrived and shit, wouldn't be surprised if there was scum on and intentionally avoiding that discussion. Not a plus or minus for DS, mostly others. This doesn't exonerate DS, just thought it was crap.
• MiX always seems scummy, even when he is town, I think that is well known. He does seem to be playing a little bit more deliberately, but I've heard he is doing this more and more. Wouldn't surprise me if scum team avoided voting for town!mix, hoping he will be lynched without their help.
• My 'spidey senses' have occasionally been heightened by ADK, gkreig, glooble, & Joth. When i reread, I can convince myself that that they could be town.
• SS - Not good at reading him, last time I played he was scum and had a town read on me. Probably won scum the game because I was too stubborn to see it for what it was. I'll probably read them more skeptically in this game.

Cheers!

[pingpongsam]

I'm ridiculously busy. Next week I am going to a 3 day conference in Boston for work so I expect I'll probably be pretty busy then as well. I am definitely following along but am not finding time for rereads and not getting the feeling right now any are actually warranted. I'm no fan of D1 for lots of reasons. Once there is some real activity to ponder over I can assure you I will be more active.

[jotheonah]

I'm ridiculously busy. Next week I am going to a 3 day conference in Boston for work so I expect I'll probably be pretty busy then as well. I am definitely following along but am not finding time for rereads and not getting the feeling right now any are actually warranted. I'm no fan of D1 for lots of reasons. Once there is some real activity to ponder over I can assure you I will be more active.

I live in Boston! Lmk in PM if you want to grab a drink and not talk about this game.

[EFHW]

I'm thinking vote: Glooble. He seemed overly enthusiastic about my DatSwan case and was maybe looking for something to talk about in analyzing the last game instead of this one.

[ashersky]

Also been crazy busy. Sorry for that.

Typical race to a rushed D1 lynch in the cards, I think.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Also been crazy busy. Sorry for that.

Typical race to a rushed D1 lynch in the cards, I think.

We do have four more days. I will try to do a reread tomorrow and sort some people.

Care to put your vote anywhere?

[silverspawn]

Reread the game.

So ash said something that appears like a contradiction and DatSwan pulled out some quotes pointing this out. Then he got heat for it. I think everyone who pointed out that this doesn't make DS scummy deserves some town points. That's at least EFHW and ash.

I think pubby's appearance so far is not good. Here is the full ISO for you:

vote: pingpongsam

 

I cannot get into this game guys. Try as I might.

That's OK. It means I won't feel guilty about...

vote: jotheonah

Not expecting to change my vote from this.

@pubby, explain your vote and I'll probably sheep you.

I think joth is trying harder than anyone else to appear innocent. I don't believe him when he says he's not "into" this game - I mean, he had opinions about voting blocs and strategy and even tallied up the votes for everyone.

But if he is town, I won't feel terrible if he's lynched. Because again, I'd rather lynch the guy who's not feeling the game than a player more involved.

3 posts, and all are scummy.

I'm also wary of debatepro. In my first game with them – well, I was scum and knew they were town, so it's possible I deluded myself, but I nonetheless – I got super strong town vibes from them pretty much the entire game. This time I don't. Is it just because they're not as new anymore? Very possible.

This is also interesting:

Can a friendly town person please give me a high-level explanation of what the traitor is and how it works? I've never played with one and read the mafia wiki on it, but I'm still unsure how it works in or could work in this game.

I did stuff like that as scum when I was new. Actually did it in my first scum game. But the fact that they say they've read on it in the wiki is the kind of detail that makes it more likely to be true.

@Mcmc: you've never answered me about how seriously you took your attempt to create the bloc. Please respond.

This post is over-the-top scummy. MiX is saying "explain your completely unexplained vote and I'll join your wagon, [apparently regardless of how bad the explanation is]". Why even ask for the explanation? So you have a flimsy pretense for your scummy vote?

vote: MiX

Consider yourself being in scum!Mix shoes. Does this really seem like a plausible thought process?

I did say it was over the top.

But you voted anyway. Why?

Here's where I'm at right now.

Town: ADK, Gloooble, Eddie, joth
Scum: pubby

vote: pubby

[jotheonah]

Holy lurker lynch Batman that’s a small number of posts!

I’ll give vote: pubby a try

[WestCoastDidds]

Vote Count 1.6

MiX (2): pingpongsam, Debatepro,
DatSwan (3): 2.71828....., Glooble, gkrieg13
jotheonah (3): pubby, A Drowned Kernel, MiX
EFHW (1): mcmcsalot
2.71828..... (1): Uncleeurope
Glooble (1): EFHW
pubby (2): silverspawn, jotheonah

Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends on June 10, 2019, 10:00:00 am.

[WestCoastDidds]

Geez, I mean 1.6, sorry faust!

[silverspawn]

It's not just that they're few posts though, they're also scummy posts. Though admittedly I don't know much about how pubby usually sounds.

[Debatepro]

Reread the game.

So ash said something that appears like a contradiction and DatSwan pulled out some quotes pointing this out. Then he got heat for it. I think everyone who pointed out that this doesn't make DS scummy deserves some town points. That's at least EFHW and ash.

Do the people giving ds heat get scum points?

I'm also wary of debatepro. In my first game with them – well, I was scum and knew they were town, so it's possible I deluded myself, but I nonetheless – I got super strong town vibes from them pretty much the entire game. This time I don't. Is it just because they're not as new anymore? Very possible.

This is also interesting:

Can a friendly town person please give me a high-level explanation of what the traitor is and how it works? I've never played with one and read the mafia wiki on it, but I'm still unsure how it works in or could work in this game.

I did stuff like that as scum when I was new. Actually did it in my first scum game. But the fact that they say they've read on it in the wiki is the kind of detail that makes it more likely to be true.

The wiki literally says "A Traitor is a member of the Mafia who is separate from the main contingent of the faction. Because it is not a member of the main contingent, it is not capable of talking to the other Mafiosi and cannot perform the factional kill. Beyond this simple definition, the implementation of Traitor varies wildly between games."

Here's where I'm at right now.

Town: ADK, Gloooble, Eddie, joth
Scum: pubby

vote: pubby

The people you gave town points for DS didn't get mentioned here. Then you say 4 people are town that basically aren't mentioned in your post. Care to share why you feel ADK, Glooble, Eddie, and Joth are town?

[Glooble]

Sorry to beat a dead horse, but I'd really like DatSwan and ADK to respond to this. I know I'm discussing a previous game, and I'd like to move away from that, but I can't when it looks to me like statements made in this game, about that game, by ADK and DatSwan, are lies. Lying is always scummy, whether its about a current game or an older one. The fact that neither one has acknowledged my post makes them both seem scummier to me.

DatSwan and ADK: Why did you say DatSwan was genuinely confused about the setup last game, when your scum QT clearly shows that he understood the setup?

[MiX]

Sorry to beat a dead horse, but I'd really like DatSwan and ADK to respond to this. I know I'm discussing a previous game, and I'd like to move away from that, but I can't when it looks to me like statements made in this game, about that game, by ADK and DatSwan, are lies. Lying is always scummy, whether its about a current game or an older one. The fact that neither one has acknowledged my post makes them both seem scummier to me.

DatSwan and ADK: Why did you say DatSwan was genuinely confused about the setup last game, when your scum QT clearly shows that he understood the setup?

In what way does this question help you read them this game?

[Glooble]

Sorry to beat a dead horse, but I'd really like DatSwan and ADK to respond to this. I know I'm discussing a previous game, and I'd like to move away from that, but I can't when it looks to me like statements made in this game, about that game, by ADK and DatSwan, are lies. Lying is always scummy, whether its about a current game or an older one. The fact that neither one has acknowledged my post makes them both seem scummier to me.

DatSwan and ADK: Why did you say DatSwan was genuinely confused about the setup last game, when your scum QT clearly shows that he understood the setup?

In what way does this question help you read them this game?

I don't think town has reason to lie about anything.

Trouble is, I'm also struggling to come up with a reason for scum to lie about something so irrelevant.

But I also can't reconcile their statements with the evidence.

Also, the mere fact that ADK has posted since I made this post two days ago but hasn't acknowledged it is scummy to me in its own way. (DatSwan gets a pass, I guess, since he hasn't posted since, so its conceivable he might not have seen it.) I will often ignore votes on me if I think they're based on nothing or they're based on something I've already defended myself on, but not responding to an accusation of contradiction/lying at all is suspect.

[MiX]

Do you believe ADK/Swan will answer in a way that will make you townread them more? What about in a way that will make you scumread them more (not intentionally of course)?

Your case feels like (correct me if I'm wrong) Swan and ADK were lying and you caught them in their lie, thus they're both scum. In this case, I can't see how an answer would persuade you, if this is the case, then they have already scumslipped.

[MiX]

In this case, I can't see how an answer would persuade you, if this is the case, then they have already scumslipped.

This is so awfully worded that I just have to correct it: "If this is the case you're pushing, then an answer can't change anything, because they have already scumslipped."

[silverspawn]

Reread the game.

So ash said something that appears like a contradiction and DatSwan pulled out some quotes pointing this out. Then he got heat for it. I think everyone who pointed out that this doesn't make DS scummy deserves some town points. That's at least EFHW and ash.

Do the people giving ds heat get scum points?

No. People who sheeped the case would be more likely to get scum points, but that didn't really happen.

The people you gave town points for DS didn't get mentioned here. Then you say 4 people are town that basically aren't mentioned in your post. Care to share why you feel ADK, Glooble, Eddie, and Joth are town?

It's almost all "this sounds authentic" and "this feels like it has a town motivation behind it". Trying to explain these kinds of town reads is a pain. The DS thing isn't a big deal, it's just something.

[Glooble]

In this case, I can't see how an answer would persuade you, if this is the case, then they have already scumslipped.

This is so awfully worded that I just have to correct it: "If this is the case you're pushing, then an answer can't change anything, because they have already scumslipped."

There are several answers I would consider satisfactory. Obviously if I told you what these answers are, they would be able to just parrot them back to me, so I won't.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Sorry to beat a dead horse, but I'd really like DatSwan and ADK to respond to this. I know I'm discussing a previous game, and I'd like to move away from that, but I can't when it looks to me like statements made in this game, about that game, by ADK and DatSwan, are lies. Lying is always scummy, whether its about a current game or an older one. The fact that neither one has acknowledged my post makes them both seem scummier to me.

DatSwan and ADK: Why did you say DatSwan was genuinely confused about the setup last game, when your scum QT clearly shows that he understood the setup?

Honestly I may have been misremembering things. I remember at the time being frustrated because I thought that swan's setup posts were genuinely confused about things and he was attracting unnecessary attention because of it. There certainly wasn't any discussion of "I'm going to try and fake setup confusion so that people think I'm town". You're correct that the scum qt and swan's post seem to contradict each other; either swan really was faking or, as I think is possible, he just forgot between N0 and that post.

[Glooble]

Sorry to beat a dead horse, but I'd really like DatSwan and ADK to respond to this. I know I'm discussing a previous game, and I'd like to move away from that, but I can't when it looks to me like statements made in this game, about that game, by ADK and DatSwan, are lies. Lying is always scummy, whether its about a current game or an older one. The fact that neither one has acknowledged my post makes them both seem scummier to me.

DatSwan and ADK: Why did you say DatSwan was genuinely confused about the setup last game, when your scum QT clearly shows that he understood the setup?

Honestly I may have been misremembering things. I remember at the time being frustrated because I thought that swan's setup posts were genuinely confused about things and he was attracting unnecessary attention because of it. There certainly wasn't any discussion of "I'm going to try and fake setup confusion so that people think I'm town". You're correct that the scum qt and swan's post seem to contradict each other; either swan really was faking or, as I think is possible, he just forgot between N0 and that post.

Thanks.

[Glooble]

Pubby, can you please explain what you meant when you said you "weren't likely to change your vote" from joth? It seems to me like it was ludicrously early to make such a statement.

[2.71828.....]

In-laws just arrived + work = neglect of this game. Will try to spend some time later this evening looking back over things.

[mcmcsalot]

I could go for a vote: pubby

[silverspawn]

Please answer my question.

[MiX]

Please answer my question.

I do think MiX is playing much more loosey goosey then I have seen him in the past but I’m not sure I care to lynch him now because I think I have a good ability to read him.

I actually think I’m going to join him vote: efhw

I was serious about the voting block. And am sad that it did not succeed in working together. I think her dismissal of it is interesting.

I didn't mean to dismiss your effort. I thought it was RVS. How did you imagine it working?

Exactly as proposed, a block of players voting together for day 1. I had slight town reads of adk and pps right off the bat, there are enough scum in the game taking two people off my lynch list didn’t seem too detrimental, and I thought it’s continued use and seriousness would actually provide some pretty interesting interaction that could have been examined later on. Sadly it fell apart very quickly and I don’t think there is another way to create it that isn’t influenced by scum.

You saw this part, right?

[jotheonah]

I'm actually back to vote: MiX

pubby might be scum, but they (he? not actually sure of your pronouns, pubby) have bland compromise Day 1 mislynch written all over them.

[MiX]

I'm actually back to vote: MiX

pubby might be scum, but they (he? not actually sure of your pronouns, pubby) have bland compromise Day 1 mislynch written all over them.

This is the most uninspired vote I've seen yet, unless you have a case on me? This feels...different...from the votes I usually recieve, so I would like to know why it existed.

Agreed that you're a much better lynch, they don't act like it but if you think about it pubby's new in f.ds, and given how easy it was to mislynch him last game I would rather leave him alive for now.

[silverspawn]

Please answer my question.

I do think MiX is playing much more loosey goosey then I have seen him in the past but I’m not sure I care to lynch him now because I think I have a good ability to read him.

I actually think I’m going to join him vote: efhw

I was serious about the voting block. And am sad that it did not succeed in working together. I think her dismissal of it is interesting.

I didn't mean to dismiss your effort. I thought it was RVS. How did you imagine it working?

Exactly as proposed, a block of players voting together for day 1. I had slight town reads of adk and pps right off the bat, there are enough scum in the game taking two people off my lynch list didn’t seem too detrimental, and I thought it’s continued use and seriousness would actually provide some pretty interesting interaction that could have been examined later on. Sadly it fell apart very quickly and I don’t think there is another way to create it that isn’t influenced by scum.

You saw this part, right?

Yes. It's not quite an answer. I want to know what mcmc would have done if people had gone along.

[Uncleeurope]

I'm actually back to vote: MiX

pubby might be scum, but they (he? not actually sure of your pronouns, pubby) have bland compromise Day 1 mislynch written all over them.

Trying to decide if this is a partner tell or not.

I will get back to you guys.

[Uncleeurope]

Oh, and by the way, anyone else interested in killin' off our boy, e?

[jotheonah]

I'm actually back to vote: MiX

pubby might be scum, but they (he? not actually sure of your pronouns, pubby) have bland compromise Day 1 mislynch written all over them.

This is the most uninspired vote I've seen yet, unless you have a case on me? This feels...different...from the votes I usually recieve, so I would like to know why it existed.

Agreed that you're a much better lynch, they don't act like it but if you think about it pubby's new in f.ds, and given how easy it was to mislynch him last game I would rather leave him alive for now.

It's the same case I had before I switched to pubby. I barely remember what it was but I remember it was solid. Let me reread.

[A Drowned Kernel]

On a reread:

silver is very towny
I think glooble pushing the datswan thing is towny (I don't know if he's right or not)
mix is towny

I still don't like PPS's reaction to people voting for him
e is coming off as scummy to me but I think I practically always scumread e
pubby comes off as scummy but he was such an easy mislynch last game that I kind of don't want to go there
gkrieg is a scumlord

Let me check if I'm still voting there

[jotheonah]

Oh yeah, it was the way you reacted to the voting bloc idea. You seemed desperate to be included, which I concluded was most likely to come from jittery scum.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I guess I'm voting for joth? Not the worst place to have my vote

[A Drowned Kernel]

Game unrelated: debatepro did you use to do high school/college policy debate?

[jotheonah]

I guess I'm voting for joth? Not the worst place to have my vote

Pretty solid default vote apparently. But can I interest you in MiXing it up a little?

[A Drowned Kernel]

I guess I'm voting for joth? Not the worst place to have my vote

Pretty solid default vote apparently. But can I interest you in MiXing it up a little?

Nope!

[MiX]

Oh yeah, it was the way you reacted to the voting bloc idea. You seemed desperate to be included, which I concluded was most likely to come from jittery scum.

Ah, my bad, I forgot you had this. Okay you're not conf!scum then.

Game unrelated: debatepro did you use to do high school/college policy debate?

Surely he has already answered this question with a "yes" elsewhere, right? Not that I remember it, just seems like an obvious thing to ask.

I guess I'm voting for joth? Not the worst place to have my vote

Pretty solid default vote apparently. But can I interest you in MiXing it up a little?

Are we gonna end up scumreading each other D1 again?

Oh, and by the way, anyone else interested in killin' off our boy, e?

I'm fine with this. Joth seems scummier, which is probably a towntell for him, still want him gone more than anyone else.

[jotheonah]

[quite]Are we gonna end up scumreading each other D1 again?[/quote]

I mean, I’m not like super-super sure you’re scum. You’re just the best bet for a D1 lynch as of now as far as I know. So we don’t have to make a big 1v1 thing about it. You want me to vote elsewhere? Make a better case.

[Uncleeurope]

Any other thoughts on e?

[Debatepro]

Game unrelated: debatepro did you use to do high school/college policy debate?

Both. Judging both levels, some coaching, side hustles. But I’ve been in tech and cybersecurity for a couple decades.  WCD also debated and coached in college, it’s how we met.

[Debatepro]

Any other thoughts on e?

Not sure if I’m missing it, but you haven’t said why you are voting for him. Care to share or do you have some other plan in the works?

I did ask if both you all would share some thoughts and reads about the game.

[Swowl]

I am not dead - camping until Sunday with way less access then i expected.

Glooble i think you should probably read more thoroughly before making accusations.

I’ll get a vote down tomorrow when i have a connection again after i catch up.

[Uncleeurope]

Any other thoughts on e?

Not sure if I’m missing it, but you haven’t said why you are voting for him. Care to share or do you have some other plan in the works?

I did ask if both you all would share some thoughts and reads about the game.

Seems to fit.

Posts weird.

Dunno.

[Debatepro]

Re: Glooble pushing DS

ADK gives town points 324
EFHW gives scum points 295

Others have any takes on this issue? Is this even a useful data point?

(phone)

[faust]

Vote Count 1.7

MiX (3): pingpongsam, Debatepro, jotheonah
DatSwan (3): 2.71828....., Glooble, gkrieg13
jotheonah (3): pubby, A Drowned Kernel, MiX
2.71828..... (1): Uncleeurope
Glooble (1): EFHW
pubby (2): silverspawn, mcmcsalot

Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends on June 10, 2019, 10:00:00 am.

[MiX]

Any other thoughts on e?

Not sure if I’m missing it, but you haven’t said why you are voting for him. Care to share or do you have some other plan in the works?

I did ask if both you all would share some thoughts and reads about the game.

Seems to fit.

Posts weird.

Dunno.

Anything else? Okay: what about joth?

[MiX]

Debatepro's probably scum. Let's analyze one of their posts, mainly the one with actual reads and not just questions: (I cut some of the flavour in it to get to the read list)

• I want to read more from e, efhw, and eddie because I feel like I know them better than other players. No ideas on PPS and pubby, because they are not saying much, and I don't know them very well. Asher hasn't said much, I did agree with his take on DS's plan v planning, and they were helpful. I think at least one scum tends to be inactive in d1. But I have not played many games and thus a small sample size.
• mcmc seems townie but being helpful is part of his meta. I may always equate being nice and helpful as a town trait. I’ll have to factor that into my calculation if I can.
• This DS issue with plan vs. planning seemed contrived and shit, wouldn't be surprised if there was scum on and intentionally avoiding that discussion. Not a plus or minus for DS, mostly others. This doesn't exonerate DS, just thought it was crap.
• MiX always seems scummy, even when he is town, I think that is well known. He does seem to be playing a little bit more deliberately, but I've heard he is doing this more and more. Wouldn't surprise me if scum team avoided voting for town!mix, hoping he will be lynched without their help.
• My 'spidey senses' have occasionally been heightened by ADK, gkreig, glooble, & Joth. When i reread, I can convince myself that that they could be town.
• SS - Not good at reading him, last time I played he was scum and had a town read on me. Probably won scum the game because I was too stubborn to see it for what it was. I'll probably read them more skeptically in this game.

Now let's process it:

e - He feels like he can read him better. No reads
Eddie - He feels like he can read him better. No reads
EFHW -He feels like he can read her better. No reads
pps - Doesn't know him, not saying much. Null, I presume
pubby - Doesn't know him, not saying much. Null, I presume
ash - Hasn't said much, agrees with him regarding Swan's plan vs planning thing (IIRC ash said it came more from town?). No reads (although he said he was helpful and then mentions that's a town trait)

Then a comment that "one scum tends to be inactive D1", I suppose throwing shade on everyone he had mentioned so far. Then he continues:

mcmc - Townie but he always sees helpful as town.
Swan - Plan vs planning thing doesn't change his read on Swan, so I presume it's null?
MiX - He's scummy when town, something about how I play, ends with "scum team doesn't want to vote for him, hoping he's lynched without their help". No real read here, unless that was supposed to say null.
ADK, gkrieg, Glooble and joth - Scummy, I presume. All lumped together and he even says he's not that sure.
silverspawn - Hard to read, then some talk about his previous game. No reads

Overall there's 1-2 town reads, 4 "scum" reads and the rest are a bunch of nully nulls. Meh, this probably fits town!Debatepro, but it wouldn't fit me if I didn't scumread him to hell and back.

Regardless, Debatepro, if you had to vote for someone right now, who would it be?

[Uncleeurope]

I think debate is fine.

At least for now.

[Uncleeurope]

Any other thoughts on e?

Not sure if I’m missing it, but you haven’t said why you are voting for him. Care to share or do you have some other plan in the works?

I did ask if both you all would share some thoughts and reads about the game.

Seems to fit.

Posts weird.

Dunno.

Anything else? Okay: what about joth?

Joth is... Joth...

[MiX]

I can see Eddie doesn't feel like being eloquent today. But seriously what do you think of joth?

[EFHW]

I can see Eddie doesn't feel like being eloquent today. But seriously what do you think of joth?

Eddie is giving a performance.  Does he decide to do that as town or scum?

[ashersky]

Sorry I was quiet, family emergency (everyone is okay).  I’ll try to contribute tomorrow (Sunday).

[MiX]

I can see Eddie doesn't feel like being eloquent today. But seriously what do you think of joth?

Eddie is giving a performance.  Does he decide to do that as town or scum?

Town.

[Glooble]

MiX, what exactly do you find scummy about joth? He's reading null-to-towny for me this game.

[Glooble]

Also, on a related note, if you think debatepro is probably scum why aren't you voting there?

[Debatepro]

Debatepro's probably scum. Let's analyze one of their posts, mainly the one with actual reads and not just questions: (I cut some of the flavour in it to get to the read list)
...
Overall there's 1-2 town reads, 4 "scum" reads and the rest are a bunch of nully nulls. Meh, this probably fits town!Debatepro, but it wouldn't fit me if I didn't scumread him to hell and back.

Are you just thinking out loud? You can work though all of theses issues, craft a post, and then at the end, delete it instead of posting if it is not a value add. Maybe I unable to decipher the last sentence.

Regardless, Debatepro, if you had to vote for someone right now, who would it be?

My vote is right where it belongs.

[MiX]

MiX, what exactly do you find scummy about joth? He's reading null-to-towny for me this game.

He's playing up his town meta too much, pubby's case is alright and I don't really understand his case on me.

Also, on a related note, if you think debatepro is probably scum why aren't you voting there?

Not that sure. I would sooner vote for e in any case.

Debatepro's probably scum. Let's analyze one of their posts, mainly the one with actual reads and not just questions: (I cut some of the flavour in it to get to the read list)
...
Overall there's 1-2 town reads, 4 "scum" reads and the rest are a bunch of nully nulls. Meh, this probably fits town!Debatepro, but it wouldn't fit me if I didn't scumread him to hell and back.

Are you just thinking out loud? You can work though all of theses issues, craft a post, and then at the end, delete it instead of posting if it is not a value add. Maybe I unable to decipher the last sentence.

I didn't know it was that useless...

Regardless, Debatepro, if you had to vote for someone right now, who would it be?

My vote is right where it belongs.

Do you have a reason for this vote?

[gkrieg13]

Sorry been busy with work and house improvements. Hopefully will get to this soon.

[silverspawn]

The only reason I don't want to lynch debatepro is the wiki thing. It seems unlikely for scum!debatepro to get the explanation of what a traitor is from his buddies and then look at the wiki anyway just so that he can better fabricate this lie. It seems similarly unlikely for him to make up having looked at the wiki.

He could be the traitor, that would take care of the problem, or he could have not asked his scum buddies. Mh.

[Debatepro]

Do you have a reason for this vote? [db8 voting for MiX]

It is a data point. The value of voting for someone else hasn’t risen above the value gained by voting for you. It is not always useful to share the full extent of the reasons, although if you read close enough, you might be able to pick it out.

When I don’t think it is as valuable, I’ll change my vote.

If your town, get to work and stop wasting time with a townie. 

[MiX]

If your town, get to work and stop wasting time with a townie. 

See, this right here would tell me you're town, if you didn't end it with a wink. I'll still do the same thing as last time we were all together and listen to silver saying you're town, after all he was right before, I guess.

I might make a case on joth or e (although e doesn't really have a lot of posts so not much can be said), if I find nothing then I'll research EFHW more. There's like two others I would vote for, but otherwise this is my lynch pool.

[gkrieg13]

MiX is saying "explain your completely unexplained vote and I'll join your wagon, [apparently regardless of how bad the explanation is]"

It's sweet how you were scared that I would sheep him regardless of his explanation. I merely wanted an explanation.

This is when I would vote joth but I need to slow down my votes.

Really just taking you at your word, man. You could have said "Explain and maybe I'll sheep". Words mean things.

There's no reason for me to follow through my word, helps no one but maybe my townieness.

And you displaying a lack of towniness if you are town hurts town. Like a lot. I think people often overestimate their duty to find scum as town and underestimate their duty to convince others of their towniness.

The argument is fallacious. It might indeed be more important to not get lynched if you're town than it is to scumhunt. But these are not two separate disciplines that you can independently invest time into, and the more time invest the better you do at them.

I think a much better way to look at it is this: the remaining player base is trying to figure out your alignment. If they're doing it right, then they will always consider your meta, i.e. there shouldn't be anyone who is generically less scummy and less likely to be lynched; everyone has the same probability of being scum, what we need is information that distinguishes your scum play from your normal play.

So if you're town and trying to play towny, well, that's the same thing you're doing as scum, so we don't have anything that distinguishes between the two. That doesn't mean it can't work in individual games, but it ought not to help you in expectation. On the other hand, if you're actually scumhunting, then that does distinguish between town!you and scum!you, because scum!you doesn't scumhunt, they're only pretending to scumhunt.

I.e.: if you focus on scumhunting, that ought to be the better strategy wrt not getting lynched.

I agree with this to a point. I think I'm more likely to be mislynched when I am actively scum hunting just from interacting with people a lot. People like to lynch people that vote around and unvote from scum, which happens more when you are scum hunting.

[gkrieg13]

It's interesting how similar MiX plays to me. Here he is arguing the policing, man have I been there so many times. It's sobering to see how my behavior looks from a third person vantage point.

Do you feel stifled by him? You don't seem as PPSy as normal.

[gkrieg13]

Silver and mcmcsalot talking about scum hunting sounds townie from both of them.

[gkrieg13]

I agree with almost everything silver says, including his analysis of Debatepro asking about traitor.

[gkrieg13]

Also townreading MiX. Seems to genuinely be scum hunting.

[silverspawn]

Debatepro, have you been scum before?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Would referencing games that have happened on a site that isn't public be against the rules?

[pingpongsam]

It's interesting how similar MiX plays to me. Here he is arguing the policing, man have I been there so many times. It's sobering to see how my behavior looks from a third person vantage point.

Do you feel stifled by him? You don't seem as PPSy as normal.

Stifled would be a strong term to use. My typical play style has merit but only in limited quantities. Otherwise I am outrageously busy so that’s a good bit of it too.

[EFHW]

ADK and MiX,  are you still scumreading gkrieg?

[A Drowned Kernel]

ADK and MiX,  are you still scumreading gkrieg?

Yes

[Debatepro]

Debatepro, have you been scum before?

@e, EFHW, Eddie - Any early reads?

Is there actually a reason to ask those particular people?

- I iso'd everyone
- I have played with each of them more than once (fds/lynchpool)
- I have been partners with them (lynchpool Less Pressure #2 & #5)
- I wanted to see what they had to say

My turn:

This started as a closer examination of SS, EFHW, and MCMC planning discussion to see if I can glean any information from it.

The Dialogs: (Read this section bottom up)

SS (320) - Not quite answer, want to know what would they have done if people went along?

MiX (317) - they did in 271.

SS (315) - 2 days later - Please answer my ?

SS (276) 1009am - dialog mix policy vote, don’t lie or not keep promises as Town.

MCMC (275) 1006am - answers db8’s question about how scum hunting can be non-protown

MCMC (271) 956am - had some town reads, block could have led to interesting interactions for future examination

SS (261) 911am - Vote MiX for “there is no reason for me to follow through with my word”

EFHW (260) 908am - How did you imagine the plan working?

MCMC (258) 854am - Questions MiX for “there is no reason for me to follow through with my word”

MCMC (253) 758am - Vote: EFHW & Serious

SS (98) - how serious was your block?

@SS:
Did you miss both MCMC’s answers to your question? You both have a cluster of posts about different topics within about 2.5 hours of each other.

Did you mean to appropriate EFHW’s followup question as your own or did I miss your question in another post?

Why is this important and what more could they say? MCMC functionally said: "had some town reads, block could have led to interesting interactions for future examination"

[silverspawn]

What's with people being so difficult about answering questions in this game? Have you been scum before or not?

[Uncleeurope]

He has, just not on this site.

Dunno if you would have preferred him to answer but I don’t really care.

We need to move this along.

[silverspawn]

He has, just not on this site.

Dunno if you would have preferred him to answer but I don’t really care.

I don't mind if someone else answers. Do you know how often? Like once or like 10 times?

[Uncleeurope]

He has, just not on this site.

Dunno if you would have preferred him to answer but I don’t really care.

I don't mind if someone else answers. Do you know how often? Like once or like 10 times?

3-ish? In a blitz format, though.

[silverspawn]

Thanks. In that case, I debatepro is an ok lynch. I still want to hear from pubby, though.

[MiX]

ADK and MiX,  are you still scumreading gkrieg?

Barely, at this point I would probably say "no".

What's with people being so difficult about answering questions in this game? Have you been scum before or not?

He did answer, notice how the post he quoted mentioned he was partners with people.

Thanks. In that case, I debatepro is an ok lynch. I still want to hear from pubby, though.

Huh. What made you turn around?

[silverspawn]

@SS:
Did you miss both MCMC’s answers to your question? You both have a cluster of posts about different topics within about 2.5 hours of each other.

I knew that he had made that post which I think you're calling the first answer. Idk what second answer you're referring to.

Did you mean to appropriate EFHW’s followup question as your own or did I miss your question in another post?

idk what you're talking about.

Why is this important and what more could they say? MCMC functionally said: "had some town reads, block could have led to interesting interactions for future examination"

There's really no way that answering this would be a good idea.

[silverspawn]

Huh. What made you turn around?

Debatepro feels quite different from his first fds game. And the wiki thing isn't that strong of an argument.

[silverspawn]

Debatepro feels a bit like he's trying hard to be unimpressed. That could be a scum thing.

[Uncleeurope]

Eh, I’m not feeling it hugely. I am also not overly opposed.

My main qualm is he will be easier to catch later due to him giving more analysis.

I think we go for a quite run one.

[Uncleeurope]

Quieter*

[MiX]

Quieter*

Have you been phone posting this entire day?

[silverspawn]

Whom do you want to lynch? I don't think e or joth are lynches I can get behind.

[MiX]

Do you have a reason for this vote? [db8 voting for MiX]

It is a data point. The value of voting for someone else hasn’t risen above the value gained by voting for you. It is not always useful to share the full extent of the reasons, although if you read close enough, you might be able to pick it out.

I'm sorry, I have no idea what value there is in voting me, and I cannot determine what it is through your posts. Maybe you can help?

Whom do you want to lynch? I don't think e or joth are lynches I can get behind.

I understand being unwilling to lynch joth, but why not e?

[silverspawn]

I mean, that would just be a null lynch. I don't think a null lynch on e is what I need in my life right now.

[Uncleeurope]

Quieter*

Have you been phone posting this entire day?

Yuppers.

Why do you ask?

[Uncleeurope]

I mean, that would just be a null lynch. I don't think a null lynch on e is what I need in my life right now.

I mean, it isn’t really a null lynch.

You should do an iso and come back to me. If you still feel lukewarm then we can talk.

[MiX]

Quieter*

Have you been phone posting this entire day?

Yuppers.

Why do you ask?

There goes the one reason I had to scumread you...

[Uncleeurope]

Quieter*

Have you been phone posting this entire day?

Yuppers.

Why do you ask?

There goes the one reason I had to scumread you...

I write the same way on both platforms. At least I think I do...

I am generally fairly clipped and avoid wall posts.

I also avoid quotes in general.

Interesting that you put weight on my writin style...

[Debatepro]

What's with people being so difficult about answering questions in this game? Have you been scum before or not?

I answered you and provided links to the games so you could go read them yourself. I was partners with e, EFHW, and Eddie over those 2 games. See links next to less pressure in my post. Also, you didn’t answer my questions, which point out an interesting interaction and mix up by you.

Vote: SS

All town, remember this and the reference post, when he comes back and says “how could we have known, Debatepro was acting scummy.”

All my posts have been probing people to get more information for town.

[Glooble]

vote:pubby

As unsatisfied as I was with DatSwan’s answer, I don’t think it’s a strong case to lynch him on.

I don’t want to lynch joth or MiX. Joth because I am townreading him and MiX because I’m not scumreading him anymore than the baseline and he’s contributing more than most of the town. I sort of see the cases on debatepro and ss but I’m not sold.

I would like pubby to answer my question.

Townreading ADK, mcmc, and ash for now, with the caveat that ADK has fooled me well in the past.

EFHW is a total question mark for me. Maybe I’ll iso her this afternoon.

e, pps, pubby- gotta hear more from ya’ll.

[Glooble]

Left out the space. vote: pubby. Normally I hate lurker lynches but given how the game basically died for like two days despite being a 15-person game I’m guessing we got some scum lurkers.

[Glooble]

Looks like I forgot Eddie and Gkrieg. So, for the sake of completeness- Eddie- slight town, gkrieg- slight scum for some of his reactions to setup/traitor discussion. Might also be worth a reread.

[silverspawn]

I mean, that would just be a null lynch. I don't think a null lynch on e is what I need in my life right now.

I mean, it isn’t really a null lynch.

You should do an iso and come back to me. If you still feel lukewarm then we can talk.

I have done an ISO before saying it was a null lynch. I think his ISO is null.

[MiX]

Quieter*

Have you been phone posting this entire day?

Yuppers.

Why do you ask?

There goes the one reason I had to scumread you...

I write the same way on both platforms. At least I think I do...

I am generally fairly clipped and avoid wall posts.

I also avoid quotes in general.

Interesting that you put weight on my writin style...

Last time you were town I don't remember you posting like this. This reminds me of scum!you when we were buddies. But being exclusively phone posting does that, so it's NAI now, which means the only thing I had to scumread you has dissapeared.


I have a pretty strong feeling joth is trying extremely hard to immitate his town meta, and last time I had such a strong hunch it was on scum (if you must know, it was in RMM52 and it was shraeye) so that's where I want to leave my vote. Sadly, I don't think there's a good case for joth other than this, so I don't think he's getting lynched today.

I wouldn't want pubby to die here, he's the easiest person to mislynch in the entire planet. Would rather want EFHW, which is someone I should seriously reread and iso and metaread and all that.

[Glooble]

Reread gkrieg and EFHW. Don't want to lynch either of them today.

[jotheonah]

vote: debatepro

[MiX]

What's with people being so difficult about answering questions in this game? Have you been scum before or not?

I answered you and provided links to the games so you could go read them yourself. I was partners with e, EFHW, and Eddie over those 2 games. See links next to less pressure in my post.

To be fair, I don't think I can read those games without signing up. So, at least for me, those games don't exist. Man I gotta get in that, but I kinda promised myself I wouldn't invest so much in these types of games...

Reread gkrieg and EFHW. Don't want to lynch either of them today.

I don't believe you. As in, I don't think said rereads would lead you to this conclusion, given I just did one of EFHW and arrived at a different conclusion. But okay

vote: debatepro

Self-defense mode: Activated. But...

Vote: SS

This is a very interesting vote. Care to explain in extreme detail?

[faust]

Vote Count 1.8

MiX (1): pingpongsam
DatSwan (2): 2.71828....., gkrieg13
jotheonah (3): pubby, A Drowned Kernel, MiX
2.71828..... (1): Uncleeurope
Glooble (1): EFHW
pubby (3): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble
silverspawn (1): Debatepro
Deatepro (1): jotheonah

Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends on June 10, 2019, 10:00:00 am. That is in under 27 hours.

[Debatepro]

What's with people being so difficult about answering questions in this game? Have you been scum before or not?

I answered you and provided links to the games so you could go read them yourself. I was partners with e, EFHW, and Eddie over those 2 games. See links next to less pressure in my post.

To be fair, I don't think I can read those games without signing up. So, at least for me, those games don't exist. Man I gotta get in that, but I kinda promised myself I wouldn't invest so much in these types of games...

If I said I was never scum, it would be untrue. So I provided links to the games I was partners with e, EFHW, and Eddie. They happen to be on a different platform.

Vote: SS

This is a very interesting vote. Care to explain in extreme detail?

I did. SS and MCMC both vote for you for the same reason, yet SS doesn’t see that MCMC answers his question. SS then appropriated EFHW’s question as his own in response to you pointing out MCMC answered his question. SS isn’t this flawed as Town.

It’s also as I hypothesized. Scum is willing to vote for you in case there is a lynch, but they prefer town lynch you.


(On phone in different country, doing best to keep up)

[silverspawn]

If I said I was never scum, it would be untrue. So I provided links to the games I was partners with e, EFHW, and Eddie. They happen to be on a different platform.

You said "partners" which is ambiguous. You didn't say: "Yes, I was scum once, here is a link:". You made it so I had to check the link to figure out what exactly you meant, and I can't read the games without signing up.

If those games were short and semi-official, it's not the same as proper f.ds games though. Still, it makes the scum narrative, somewhat less likely, from my perspective.

[silverspawn]

I still have no clue what EFHW question you're talking about. Nothing I asked was based on anything she said.

[Glooble]

MiX, if you want to lynch EFHW today, by all means make your case. I didn’t say I couldn’t be convinced.

Here’s where I am after reading her 16 posts. None of her posts came out as especially scummy to me. She didn’t come off especially townie either. Her vote on me was a little random, but we’re all kinda grasping at straws this game so I’m not going to hold it against her. Her position on letting the traitor signal so we can catch them is reasonable. She and I had the same thoughts about DatSwan at the same time, which makes me inclined to think her DatSwan vote was rational. But it was also a weak case, so she backing off was rational too. Would I have stayed on a little longer to let some pressure build up and force DatSwan to engage? Yes. Was not doing so scummy? Maybe a little, but probably it’s just a different town playstyle.

What am I missing?

[EFHW]

Left out the space. vote: pubby. Normally I hate lurker lynches but given how the game basically died for like two days despite being a 15-person game I’m guessing we got some scum lurkers.

I don't follow your logic here.

[silverspawn]

I'm very likely not supporting a lynch on EFHW or gkrieg today.

[EFHW]

I still have no clue what EFHW question you're talking about. Nothing I asked was based on anything she said.

I asked mcmc how he thought the voting bloc thing would work. You also did that, but Debate missed your post, so he thought you were complaining that my post didn't get answered.

[A Drowned Kernel]

@ss: I don't know if this affects your debatepro read or not, but it might be relevant information: I looked back at his first scum on the other site, and he did make a point to ask a question about the mechanics of the scum's kill in the main thread, rather than asking his teammates in scum's daychat

I'm null on debate at the moment but it's worth pointing out

What don't you like about a gkrieg lynch?

[Glooble]

Left out the space. vote: pubby. Normally I hate lurker lynches but given how the game basically died for like two days despite being a 15-person game I’m guessing we got some scum lurkers.

I don't follow your logic here.

I’m saying we have a lot of... let’s not saying lurkers, but not-super-active player. Enough that there’s almost certainly some scum there. And lynching a player who 1. Isn’t  really contributing and 2. We won’t have much info on going into future days is not the worst idea.

I’d rather lynch someone who’s acting scummy, but so far no one has really crossed that threshold for me.

Also I really want pubby to explain why he said he was unlikely to move his vote from joth.

[EFHW]

SS isn’t this flawed as Town

vote: debate. Even if he did appropriate my question,  that's not very scummy.

[silverspawn]

@ss: I don't know if this affects your debatepro read or not, but it might be relevant information: I looked back at his first scum on the other site, and he did make a point to ask a question about the mechanics of the scum's kill in the main thread, rather than asking his teammates in scum's daychat

I'm null on debate at the moment but it's worth pointing out

What don't you like about a gkrieg lynch?

Yeah, that makes me want to lynch him quite a bit more. Still not going to unvote pubby until they at least show up, though.

I'm townreading gkrieg, partially based on gut and partially based on something I don't really want to disclose.

[jotheonah]

vote: debatepro

Self-defense mode: Activated

Nope.

[Debatepro]

SS isn’t this flawed as Town

vote: debate. Even if he did appropriate my question,  that's not very scummy.

The evidence is below.

SS continues to pester (98 & 315) MCMC about how serious was he about the block plan, but MCMC already said it, not once but twice (253 & 271). They MCMC & SS where functionally taking about MiX being scummy about lying in that same timeframe (MCMC-258 & SS-261).

When confronted with this fact (MiX 317), SS says that wasn't his question (yes it was) and morphs the question into EFHWs question (260). Why is SS push MCMC when MCMC answered the question twice while SS was on? Why does SS ask EFHW's question, partners?


The Dialogs: (Read this section bottom up)

SS (320) - Not quite answer, want to know what would they have done if people went along?

MiX (317) - they did in 271.

SS (315) - 2 days later - Please answer my ?

SS (276) 1009am - dialog mix policy vote, don’t lie or not keep promises as Town.

MCMC (275) 1006am - answers db8’s question about how scum hunting can be non-protown

MCMC (271) 956am - had some town reads, block could have led to interesting interactions for future examination

SS (261) 911am - Vote MiX for “there is no reason for me to follow through with my word”

EFHW (260) 908am - How did you imagine the plan working?

MCMC (258) 854am - Questions MiX for “there is no reason for me to follow through with my word”

MCMC (253) 758am - Vote: EFHW & Serious

SS (98) - how serious was your block?

[silverspawn]

debatepro, what are you actually imagining is happening here? Even if you disagree with me that the question wasn't answered, how could that possibly be interesting enough to talk so much about?

[pubby]

Also I really want pubby to explain why he said he was unlikely to move his vote from joth.

Dunno what's confusing about this. Joth was and is my strongest scumread by large enough margin to make up my mind. I don't see the point in second-guessing myself or muddying up the thread with meme votes. My vote remains.

[gkrieg13]

Between debate and pubby I definitely would vote pubby. Let me find a vote count

[gkrieg13]

Vote Count 1.8

MiX (1): pingpongsam
DatSwan (2): 2.71828....., gkrieg13
jotheonah (3): pubby, A Drowned Kernel, MiX
2.71828..... (1): Uncleeurope
Glooble (1): EFHW
pubby (3): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble
silverspawn (1): Debatepro
Deatepro (1): jotheonah

Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends on June 10, 2019, 16:00. That is in under 27 hours.

Something is wrong with this deadline. This still isn’t under 27 hours

[gkrieg13]

Anyways, I thought the deadline was sooner and that we were picking between debate and pubby. I’ll look at joth though. I don’t really remember anything from him.

[gkrieg13]

How does globule feel about joth?

[Glooble]

Also I really want pubby to explain why he said he was unlikely to move his vote from joth.

Dunno what's confusing about this. Joth was and is my strongest scumread by large enough margin to make up my mind. I don't see the point in second-guessing myself or muddying up the thread with meme votes. My vote remains.

That is an answer, but not one that makes me want to move my vote off of you.

Have you considered how this position looks to the rest of us? How it excludes you from interactions that we could use to judge your towniness?

[Glooble]

How does globule feel about joth?

Seems like he’s playing like he always does. Maybe a little less invested than usual. I guess that could be a scumtell, but eh, it’s not a great one. Easily explained by irl pressures. On the whole I’m townreading him.

[WestCoastDidds]

Vote Count 1.8

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends on June 10, 2019, 16:00. That is in under 27 hours.

Something is wrong with this deadline. This still isn’t under 27 hours

Yeah, the math doesn’t add up. Time zones are hard. It’s almost 27 hours away now. 

EDIT: This information was unfortunately wrong. The correct deadline is June 10, 2019, 10:00:00 am. Sorry about the confusion.

[Debatepro]

debatepro, what are you actually imagining is happening here? Even if you disagree with me that the question wasn't answered, how could that possibly be interesting enough to talk so much about?

Why was it so important he answer it again to you?

Do you have a better case on someone else I should be examining? I mean you have been pushing me, which is wrong. I’ve never played with a traitor, asked a question, and that makes me candidate 1 to you.

So when I flip town, you will have waited all this time on me.

[silverspawn]

The traitor thing is the biggest argument against your lynch. It makes you less scummy, not more. You're scummy based on attitude.

[silverspawn]

Why was it so important he answer it again to you?

Please don't be condescending. I don't think he ever answered it.

[mcmcsalot]

Had a super busy weekend, I'll get to this later today or tomorrow morning

[faust]

Vote Count 1.8

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends on June 10, 2019, 16:00. That is in under 27 hours.

Something is wrong with this deadline. This still isn’t under 27 hours

Yeah, the math doesn’t add up. Time zones are hard. It’s almost 27 hours away now. 

In fact, the time tag got lost somewhere it is now fixed. The deadline is June 10, 2019, 10:00:00 am, in about 18.5 hours.

[Glooble]

This is not a great situation for town to be in with 16 hours to deadline. We really need to start consolidating around a candidate if we want a lynch to happen.

Everyone is talking about debatepro but only 2 people are actually voting debatepro. That’s weird, isn’t it? This close to the end of the day shouldn’t we be talking about the leading wagons?

[silverspawn]

I refuse to unvote pubby until they at least try to do something. If they're this quick to give up then we might as well lynch them.

[Glooble]

I refuse to unvote pubby until they at least try to do something. If they're this quick to give up then we might as well lynch them.

Reasonable. Though you moving off of pubby would leave only the joth wagon, and that’s a wagon I’m unlikely to join.

Debatepro, Eddie. You’re each on your own little wagons. Are any of the slightly larger wagons appealing to you?

[Glooble]

Wait, I guess it would leave the debatepro wagon the same size as the joth wagon.

[MiX]

I refuse to unvote pubby until they at least try to do something. If they're this quick to give up then we might as well lynch them.

Leaving for the night, so while I sleep Vote: pubby. Okay, we're not lynching joth, nor e, nor EFHW, nor gkrieg...I think the only other person I would lynch is Glooble?

Have fun guys!

Vote: pubby so it's more visible

[EFHW]

I prefer debate, but if that proves to be a non starter, I'll consolidate elsewhere in time to be useful. I can't be on at deadline.

PPE: I would vote Glooble

[Glooble]

I can be on at deadline.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'll be on later this evening as well as at deadline. My only concern with the pubby wagon is that it's so lazy, but I'll vote there if necessary to get a lynch

[A Drowned Kernel]

I just saw pubby's post up there. It makes me want to vote him a lot less.

[Glooble]

I just saw pubby's post up there. It makes me want to vote him a lot less.

Why? Curious, cause it made me want to vote him more.

[jotheonah]

So when I flip town, you will have waited all this time on me.

Classic scum phrasing for real though.

[jotheonah]

I guess I could switch to pubby. If we’re doomed to have a crappy consensus lynch, it may as well be not me.

It’s not really clear to me how much my head is on the proverbial block though. Seems like not very much, but if there’s an “oh crap it’s deadline let’s pile on the largest wagon” moment, it feels like that could hit me.

[gkrieg13]

vote: pubby

[A Drowned Kernel]

I just saw pubby's post up there. It makes me want to vote him a lot less.

Why? Curious, cause it made me want to vote him more.

He's sticking to his guns, when I would expect scum to either go completely silent or backpedal.

They're kind of crappy guns, but he's sticking to them

[Glooble]

I just saw pubby's post up there. It makes me want to vote him a lot less.

Why? Curious, cause it made me want to vote him more.

He's sticking to his guns, when I would expect scum to either go completely silent or backpedal.

They're kind of crappy guns, but he's sticking to them

If pubby had said all of the things he's been saying and than also laid out an actual case on joth, I'd probably be townreading him. But this is his supposedly air-tight, "not likely to move" case:

@pubby, explain your vote and I'll probably sheep you.

I think joth is trying harder than anyone else to appear innocent. I don't believe him when he says he's not "into" this game - I mean, he had opinions about voting blocs and strategy and even tallied up the votes for everyone.

But if he is town, I won't feel terrible if he's lynched. Because again, I'd rather lynch the guy who's not feeling the game than a player more involved.

That does not seem to me like a case that's worth plopping down with a week to deadline and then calling it a day.

If pubby is scumreading joth so strongly, why isn't he trying to get others to vote for him? Why isn't he engaging with joth and trying to get him to slip up? If he's a towny who really thinks joth is scum, I think he'd be working to get joth lynched.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I just saw pubby's post up there. It makes me want to vote him a lot less.

Why? Curious, cause it made me want to vote him more.

He's sticking to his guns, when I would expect scum to either go completely silent or backpedal.

They're kind of crappy guns, but he's sticking to them

If pubby had said all of the things he's been saying and than also laid out an actual case on joth, I'd probably be townreading him. But this is his supposedly air-tight, "not likely to move" case:

@pubby, explain your vote and I'll probably sheep you.

I think joth is trying harder than anyone else to appear innocent. I don't believe him when he says he's not "into" this game - I mean, he had opinions about voting blocs and strategy and even tallied up the votes for everyone.

But if he is town, I won't feel terrible if he's lynched. Because again, I'd rather lynch the guy who's not feeling the game than a player more involved.

That does not seem to me like a case that's worth plopping down with a week to deadline and then calling it a day.

If pubby is scumreading joth so strongly, why isn't he trying to get others to vote for him? Why isn't he engaging with joth and trying to get him to slip up? If he's a towny who really thinks joth is scum, I think he'd be working to get joth lynched.

I dunno. I guess the way that I'm reading pubby is that there's a lot of players in this game, it's easy to feel overwhelmed, and he found a semi-decent read and plopped himself there.

Maybe I'm protecting too much of my own feelings onto another player, but I just don't seem the scum narrative for pubby's play

[Uncleeurope]

I refuse to unvote pubby until they at least try to do something. If they're this quick to give up then we might as well lynch them.

Reasonable. Though you moving off of pubby would leave only the joth wagon, and that’s a wagon I’m unlikely to join.

Debatepro, Eddie. You’re each on your own little wagons. Are any of the slightly larger wagons appealing to you?

Nope.

[EFHW]

I don't like the pubby lynch. And Debate has been scummy, imo. The case against silver was over the top, as they say, and he feels aggressive or amped up to me. MiX was right about the reads list, too, even if he was a bit heavy handed in how he pointed out that it actually said very little.

[EFHW]

vote count please

[ashersky]

I'm around for the next 30-50 minutes or so.  Any particular passages to re-read that would be useful?  I have "read" up to now, mostly skimming long posts and looking for votes and such.

[EFHW]

ISO debate and tell us what you think.

[jotheonah]

I just saw pubby's post up there. It makes me want to vote him a lot less.

Why? Curious, cause it made me want to vote him more.

He's sticking to his guns, when I would expect scum to either go completely silent or backpedal.

They're kind of crappy guns, but he's sticking to them

If pubby had said all of the things he's been saying and than also laid out an actual case on joth, I'd probably be townreading him. But this is his supposedly air-tight, "not likely to move" case:

@pubby, explain your vote and I'll probably sheep you.

I think joth is trying harder than anyone else to appear innocent. I don't believe him when he says he's not "into" this game - I mean, he had opinions about voting blocs and strategy and even tallied up the votes for everyone.

But if he is town, I won't feel terrible if he's lynched. Because again, I'd rather lynch the guy who's not feeling the game than a player more involved.

That does not seem to me like a case that's worth plopping down with a week to deadline and then calling it a day.

If pubby is scumreading joth so strongly, why isn't he trying to get others to vote for him? Why isn't he engaging with joth and trying to get him to slip up? If he's a towny who really thinks joth is scum, I think he'd be working to get joth lynched.

I dunno. I guess the way that I'm reading pubby is that there's a lot of players in this game, it's easy to feel overwhelmed, and he found a semi-decent read and plopped himself there.

Maybe I'm protecting too much of my own feelings onto another player, but I just don't seem the scum narrative for pubby's play

If that’s where he is, then his ragging on me for saying I can’t get into the game comes off a bit hypocritical IMO.

[ashersky]

ISO debate and tell us what you think.

Town or Traitor.

A majority of their posts are questions (either about something or to someone), which is very faust-ian.  When faust does it, it's alignment-null, but unclear here.

I'm taking into consideration that I don't know debatepro at all (we may have played in a game together, but I honestly don't know at this point without looking).  There's a mention that they are an adult, has debate experience.  The posts that aren't questions focus on the semantics of posts (I think I'm using semantics correctly here) as much or more than the content of posts, which feels debate-y to me.

There's also the "I'm town so it's your fault if you lynch me" warning in there that someone flagged as an auto-scum-response.

Basically, I think the traitor question reads like an "I'm the traitor you guys!" post from a new-ish player trying to figure out how to play the role (incorrectly).  So traitor is on the table.

I don't see as much scumminess in the rest of the posts as compared to others, but maybe me not being directly involved in the quotes helps me there.

[ashersky]

I ISOed EFHW too, since she responded to me.

Strong town read.  Nothing out of place from what I would expect from town!EFHW.

[pingpongsam]

Just got settled in a hotel room. I can probably be around at deadline but I will be relatively ill informed, or whatever that means for D1. I’m always good for a hammer vote, though, those are fun. So count me in for hammering the popular vote if need be. Maybe ash and I can race for old times’ sake.

Hopefully night lasts until I get back home and I can actually give this game some attention with some D2 information to work with.

[Debatepro]

ISO debate and tell us what you think.

Town or traitor

Basically, I think the traitor question reads like an "I'm the traitor you guys!" post from a new-ish player trying to figure out how to play the role (incorrectly).  So traitor is on the table.

I don't see as much scumminess in the rest of the posts as compared to others, but maybe me not being directly involved in the quotes helps me there.

If I was assigned some role and any role, you can bet your ass I would read and research everything I could about it, like looking for other games it was deployed, before asking how it worked. It doesn’t do me any good to tip my hand. If you think it’s signaling, I wasn’t the one who started the discussion about traitor. Probably doesn’t matter, SS thinks it was towny-ish.

[Debatepro]

Vote: pubby

Reason: I certainly have given SS enough reasons to vote for me, yet he is sticking with his pubby vote. Given how much pubby has said and contributed to the game, I'm not sure scum!ss would be sticking with a pubby vote, unless they suspect a pr.

[Debatepro]

vote count please

Vote count 1.81 (unofficial)

MiX (1): pingpongsam
DatSwan (1): 2.71828.....
jotheonah (2): pubby, A Drowned Kernel
2.71828..... (1): Uncleeurope
pubby (6): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro,
Debatepro (2): jotheonah, EFHW

Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky

* My handle is misspelled in the official vote count.

** V/LA Most of the day today. Driving in a country i don't live or speak the language.

[Swowl]

Have finally arrived back at home. Catching up now.

Will be around for a bit and then back for DL.

[2.71828.....]

Hey everyone, in laws took up more time than I thought. No plurality lynch? I suppose

Vote: pubby

Open to other lynches, just don't see them happening

[Uncleeurope]

Pubby is almost guaranteed town.

Vote: debatepro

Not happy about this, but themes the breaks.

[faust]

Vote Count 1.9

MiX (1): pingpongsam
jotheonah (2): pubby, A Drowned Kernel
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....
Deatepro (3): jotheonah, EFHW, Uncleeurope

Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends on June 10, 2019, 10:00:00 am. That is in 6.5 hours.

[silverspawn]

yeah uhu unvote before a wild PPS appears and uses hammer.

[silverspawn]

Hey everyone, in laws took up more time than I thought. No plurality lynch? I suppose

Vote: pubby

Open to other lynches, just don't see them happening

That was L-1. Remember L-n warnings? They should be a thing.

[silverspawn]

I can picture faust in the speccy complaining how this is a lazy town vote. @Eddie: if you want another wagon, go for i. there is enough time.

[Uncleeurope]

I will vote in a myriad of places if it means people will sit up and take notice. I moved to Debate as a way to show another wagon could exit in theory.

You vote: e with me to make it look prettier to onlookers.

[silverspawn]

vote: e

[2.71828.....]

Hey everyone, in laws took up more time than I thought. No plurality lynch? I suppose

Vote: pubby

Open to other lynches, just don't see them happening

That was L-1. Remember L-n warnings? They should be a thing.

Yeah, and I also trust people to never unintentionally hammer.

[MiX]

Hey everyone, in laws took up more time than I thought. No plurality lynch? I suppose

Vote: pubby

Open to other lynches, just don't see them happening

That was L-1. Remember L-n warnings? They should be a thing.

Yeah, and I also trust people to never unintentionally hammer.

With pps and ash around you can't be safe.

Unvote, that was a fun experience but I don't want pubby to get lynched today.

[2.71828.....]

Hey everyone, in laws took up more time than I thought. No plurality lynch? I suppose

Vote: pubby

Open to other lynches, just don't see them happening

That was L-1. Remember L-n warnings? They should be a thing.

Yeah, and I also trust people to never unintentionally hammer.

With pps and ash around you can't be safe.

Unvote, that was a fun experience but I don't want pubby to get lynched today.

But they don't unintentionally hammer. They hammer exactly when they want to.

[2.71828.....]

Hey everyone, in laws took up more time than I thought. No plurality lynch? I suppose

Vote: pubby

Open to other lynches, just don't see them happening

That was L-1. Remember L-n warnings? They should be a thing.

Yeah, and I also trust people to never unintentionally hammer.

With pps and ash around you can't be safe.

Unvote, that was a fun experience but I don't want pubby to get lynched today.

Do you want anyone to get lynched today?

[MiX]

I've lost my enthusiasm for lynching Glooble, which marks the end of my last serious scumread. I am now lost.

Vote: joth I think...

PPE: And you never know when that is. But I don't think it's scummy to put people at L-1 like that.

[MiX]

Vote: Debatepro, actually, seems better here. And there's no way I'll get a good joth case.

[silverspawn]

Hey everyone, in laws took up more time than I thought. No plurality lynch? I suppose

Vote: pubby

Open to other lynches, just don't see them happening

That was L-1. Remember L-n warnings? They should be a thing.

Yeah, and I also trust people to never unintentionally hammer.

I don't, but I particularly don't trust PPS to not hammer intentionally when doing so would be a bad idea.

[ashersky]

Six or so hours left?  Hammer is better than no lynch.

[Uncleeurope]

Six or so hours left?  Hammer is better than no lynch.

Depends on the person.

The way I see it, people voting pubby are getting all the scum points from me.

Scum don't know the traitor, and that means they are on the lookout for cues. Scum wanna save our boy debatepro (regardless of his actual traitor-ness), and by flopping a vote over onto pubby, it just screams lazy.

Also there is a myriad of dudes who are saying "lurk lynches = bad" but are making an exception for pubbles.

Pubbles is probs town here. I think I will play the part of shraeye here and recommend we lynch someone no one has talked about yet (e, unless there is another recommendation) or we don't lynch at all. Or we at least don't lynch pubby.

I won't be hammering him.

I could also be dead wrong.

[Uncleeurope]

Also, I thought it was 4 hours.

[Glooble]

Is e any less of a lurker than pubby this game?

[Glooble]

I guess he has over twice as many posts, so technically yes.

Better question: what makes e more likely to be scum than pubby?

What makes debatepro more likely to be scum than pubby?

[EFHW]

I don't like the pubby lynch. And Debate has been scummy, imo. The case against silver was over the top, as they say, and he feels aggressive or amped up to me. MiX was right about the reads list, too, even if he was a bit heavy handed in how he pointed out that it actually said very little.

[Glooble]

What's with people being so difficult about answering questions in this game? Have you been scum before or not?

I answered you and provided links to the games so you could go read them yourself. I was partners with e, EFHW, and Eddie over those 2 games. See links next to less pressure in my post. Also, you didn’t answer my questions, which point out an interesting interaction and mix up by you.

Vote: SS

All town, remember this and the reference post, when he comes back and says “how could we have known, Debatepro was acting scummy.”

All my posts have been probing people to get more information for town.

The defensiveness here does feel kinda scummy. I just don’t think it’s necessarily scummy enough to justify lynching an active player who’s actually been participating over a player who’s willfully refusing to participate. But I’ll move my vote there if the town does.

[silverspawn]

It's not like I actually have any intention of lynching e, I was just trying to make a point about not having to go with the default option. If this becomes properly active, then tons of stuff can happen in 5 hours.

[Glooble]

We have 3 hours.

[Uncleeurope]

I guess he has over twice as many posts, so technically yes.

Better question: what makes e more likely to be scum than pubby?

What makes debatepro more likely to be scum than pubby?

Because people want pubby dead willy-nilly.

Like, what is the pubby case?

The fact that my e thing is being largely ignored while pubby is gaining traction is very telling.

If you see no difference, why not vote e?

That goes for everyone.

Also note that e is largely ignoring me.

Not refuting, not challenging, ignoring.

He doesn't want people talking about him.

*Shrugs*

[pingpongsam]

We have 3 hours.

Since when did we stop using forum time? I thought we had about 9 hours. I like forum time since it is my local time.

[EFHW]

We have 3 hours.

Since when did we stop using forum time? I thought we had about 9 hours. I like forum time since it is my local time.

The time was changed from 4 pm to 10 am.

[Glooble]

Here is my pubby case: if pubby is town, and confident that joth is scum, why hasn’t he spent the last week making a case on joth? If I had someone I believed so strongly was scum that I was willing to vote for them a week before deadline and declare that my vote wasn’t moving, I would be trying to evangelize. I certainly wouldn’t just check out.

If on the other hand, I was a fairly inexperienced scum player in a large game, I might fake one giant scumread and use it as an excuse not to participate in the discussion for the rest of the day, thereby protecting myself from potential scumslips.

That narrative seems just as likely to me as ADKs, if not more so.

People want pubby dead because they want a lynch and his seems like the most viable. Plus he’s not really contributing so it’s not a huge loss. Also, having a player who hasn’t interacted a lot around in later days is a liability.

[Uncleeurope]

I would never do that as scum.

It is just asking for attention with nothing to gain from it.

[MiX]

Here is my pubby case: if pubby is town, and confident that joth is scum, why hasn’t he spent the last week making a case on joth? If I had someone I believed so strongly was scum that I was willing to vote for them a week before deadline and declare that my vote wasn’t moving, I would be trying to evangelize. I certainly wouldn’t just check out.

If on the other hand, I was a fairly inexperienced scum player in a large game, I might fake one giant scumread and use it as an excuse not to participate in the discussion for the rest of the day, thereby protecting myself from potential scumslips.

That narrative seems just as likely to me as ADKs, if not more so.

People want pubby dead because they want a lynch and his seems like the most viable. Plus he’s not really contributing so it’s not a huge loss. Also, having a player who hasn’t interacted a lot around in later days is a liability.

Literally check his other game, where he was scumreading someone and NEVER PUSHED HIM. Ever. This is town!pubby.

[silverspawn]

How active were they (he?) in the other game.

[ashersky]

I would never do that as scum.

It is just asking for attention with nothing to gain from it.

Who are you responding to here?  You aren’t pubby, right?

[pubby]

Here is my pubby case: if pubby is town, and confident that joth is scum, why hasn’t he spent the last week making a case on joth?

When are d1 votes ever confident?

joth is my #1 scum read but that doesn't mean I'm positive about him. Rather I just don't see anyone better (worse?) to vote for.

Speaking of last game, my first two scum reads of that game were on track, but I didn't act on them. So yeah, that is influencing my decision.

[pubby]

vote: debatepro

 

[faust]

Vote Count 1.10

MiX (1): pingpongsam
jotheonah (1): A Drowned Kernel
pubby (5): mcmcsalot, Glooble, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....
Debatepro (4): jotheonah, EFHW, MiX, pubby
2.71828..... (2): Uncleeurope, silverspawn

Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends on June 10, 2019, 10:00:00 am, in just under 2 hours.

[Uncleeurope]

I would never do that as scum.

It is just asking for attention with nothing to gain from it.

Who are you responding to here?  You aren’t pubby, right?

You think pubby is scum, then?

You think we done got one?

I appreciate the confidence.

[Uncleeurope]

Vote: Debate

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'll take debatepro over pubby

vote: debatepro

[A Drowned Kernel]

L-2 for those counting

[Uncleeurope]

But would you swap to e?

[A Drowned Kernel]

I would but there's a lot less people there

[Glooble]

vote: debatepro

That's L-1.

[Uncleeurope]

Vote: e

[Uncleeurope]

I also could vote ash

[Glooble]

Vote: e

Did you actually make a case beyond "why not e?" at some point? Did I just miss it?

[MiX]

How active were they (he?) in the other game.

As much as this, I suppose. A little bit more, but comparable.


Yeah let's kill Debatepro, meh.

[Uncleeurope]

Vote: e

Did you actually make a case beyond "why not e?" at some point? Did I just miss it?

Gut read + why not? People seem against it for some reason.

Would you prefer ash?

[A Drowned Kernel]

How active were they (he?) in the other game.

As much as this, I suppose. A little bit more, but comparable.


Yeah let's kill Debatepro, meh.

This post really makes me want to lynch mix. Is it too late for that?

[Glooble]

Vote: e

Did you actually make a case beyond "why not e?" at some point? Did I just miss it?

Gut read + why not? People seem against it for some reason.

Would you prefer ash?

No. I would vote e over ash if those were the only two options.

[silverspawn]

How active were they (he?) in the other game.

As much as this, I suppose. A little bit more, but comparable.


Yeah let's kill Debatepro, meh.

This post really makes me want to lynch mix. Is it too late for that?

not necessarily, but it doesn't make me want to lynch mix. Can you explain what's so scummy about it?

[Uncleeurope]

MiX's response to the pubby wagon jumped him up on my radar. I honestly wouldn't mind that terribly.

[Uncleeurope]

Vote: e

Did you actually make a case beyond "why not e?" at some point? Did I just miss it?

Gut read + why not? People seem against it for some reason.

Would you prefer ash?

No. I would vote e over ash if those were the only two options.

Interesting, why?

[A Drowned Kernel]

The "let's kill debatepro" line seems kind of affected, if that makes sense. Especially since he's already voting there

[Glooble]

Vote: e

Did you actually make a case beyond "why not e?" at some point? Did I just miss it?

Gut read + why not? People seem against it for some reason.

Would you prefer ash?

No. I would vote e over ash if those were the only two options.

Interesting, why?

Without reading back over the game, e hasn't done anything that registered on my radar as particularly townie or particularly scummy. Ash has done at least one thing that registered as townie to me.

[jotheonah]

Well, let’s try it.

vote: MiX

[Uncleeurope]

I also think silver is a half-decent lynch.

[Uncleeurope]

Well, let’s try it.

vote: MiX

See, it's this kind of thing that makes me want to lynch e.

Any whim is acceptable other than e.

e is off limits.

[Debatepro]

VT, not worst vote today. Would have preferred to draw the night kill. Good luck Town.

[Uncleeurope]

Okay, I'm peacing out mentally from this, now. If you guys want to lynch pubby/debate/e/me/anyone, I won't stop you.

I will be back in maybe half an hour to check on things.

[MiX]

VT, not worst vote today. Would have preferred to draw the night kill. Good luck Town.

Hmmmmm that's probably the safest traitor claim.

Did we hammer yet?

[Glooble]

VT, not worst vote today. Would have preferred to draw the night kill. Good luck Town.

Hmmmmm that's probably the safest traitor claim.

Did we hammer yet?

No, we got further from hammering.

[Uncleeurope]

Vote: MiX

[jotheonah]

Yeah, there’s not enough time Eddie. Let’s go back to vote: debate

[Debatepro]

vote: MiX

Keep an eye on SS, very similar to Philosophers.

[Uncleeurope]

Yeah, there’s not enough time Eddie. Let’s go back to vote: debate

Debate is town.

Sigh...

[MiX]

vote: MiX

Keep an eye on SS, very similar to Philosophers.

I suppose I'll inherit this, since I'm pretty sure you're getting lynched today.

Yeah, there’s not enough time Eddie. Let’s go back to vote: debate

Debate is town.

Sigh...

Do you want to no lynch? I don't.

[silverspawn]

vote: debate

[MiX]

MiX's response to the pubby wagon jumped him up on my radar. I honestly wouldn't mind that terribly.

Why, because I was a bit late on talking about pubby? I suppose, but I didn't expect Glooble to push that case as much as he did.

[silverspawn]

ok let's lynch this guy. we only have 13 min left. everyone here vote for debatepro.

[MiX]

ok let's lynch this guy. we only have 13 min left. everyone here vote for debatepro.

Vote: Debatepro

[Glooble]

Was that the hammer?

[silverspawn]

I don't think so.

[jotheonah]

Well then we need a hammer in seven minutes. ... who's here? Can we make pubby happen?

[silverspawn]

Pretty sure it wasn't.

Come on people, you can't just be afk and let a no-lynch happen

[jotheonah]

Unofficial vc

MiX (3): pingpongsam, Uncleeurope, debatepro
pubby (4): mcmcsalot, Glooble, gkrieg13, 2.71828.....
Debatepro (7): jotheonah, EFHW, MiX, pubby, ADK, Glooble, silverspawn

Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky

[/quote]

[jotheonah]

major FoS for Swan and ash, whose votes are nowhere

[Glooble]

No, I'm voting Debatepro.

[silverspawn]

PPS COME AND HAMMER

[Glooble]

Wait you have me voting twice bro.

[jotheonah]

Unofficial vc again because the last one got buried on the bottom of the page and also had 2 gloobles

MiX (3): pingpongsam, Uncleeurope, debatepro
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, gkrieg13, 2.71828.....
Debatepro (7): jotheonah, EFHW, MiX, pubby, ADK, Glooble, silverspawn

Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky

[Glooble]

C'mon ash.

[Uncleeurope]

Ick ick ick ick ick ick ick

Vote: Debate

[jotheonah]

if Eddie is scum here, this is a really over-the-top performance

[jotheonah]

but thank you for hammering

[silverspawn]

ok, good. When I counted it came out with 2 missing, but i trust that your vc is correct

[A Drowned Kernel]

I think we should take a serious look at joth tomorrow

[faust]

Day 1 Final Vote Count

MiX (2): pingpongsam, Debatepro
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, gkrieg13, 2.71828.....
Debatepro (8): EFHW, MiX, pubby, A Drowned Kernel, Glooble, jotheonah, silverspawn, Uncleeurope

Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky

With 15 alive, it took 8 to lynch.

[faust]

Towards the end of the end of the 20th century, a motion picture has provided a fictional account of how the world might react to a scenario where an asteroid threatens life on Earth. IT turns out the when the scenario actually happened, things went a much more mundane path. The following records have been taken from NASA personal files.

November 18, 2018
The Asteroid Simulation and Analysis Project (ASAP) has been granted funding for 3 years to create the first ever large-scale simulation of asteroid movement within the main asteroid belt of the solar system. Of course, this massive task would require at least 10 years, but we'll try and make the best of it.

April 07, 2019
Finished incorporating all data from section ER-358.

June 17, 2019
Finished data from section ER-344. Seems that we have some instability in our simulation.

July 30, 2019
Modified our model somewhat, now the asteroid belt remains mostly stable. There is still an instable object, hopefully can be fixed by feeding more accurate data into the system.

September 3, 2019
No matter how much more detail is added, it still seems that asteroid 200458 breaks out and takes a course straight towards Earth. Needs further investigation

December 14, 2019
All further tests and simulations show the same thing. We have decided to inform the government.

January 5, 2020
Found that a small nuclear explosion targeting 200458 would be enough to change its course away from collision course. This discovery has been amazing! We shouldn't have problems securing the rest of the funding for ASAP.

Debatepro has been lynched! They were Asteroid Collision, a Vanilla Townie!

Thread locked!

Night 1 begins now and lasts until June 12, 2019, 10:30:00 am. Night actions due within 36 hours.

[faust]

Newspaper article, The Guardian, retrieved October 17, 2026

Seattle under quarantine after virus outbreak

President declares unlimited national state of emergency as remaining population of city walled in with infected

The quarantine walls around Seattle have finished construction, according to military operatives. This follows the outbreak of a deadly virus in the city that, due to its ability to seize control of the muscular functions of those infected has quickly been dubbed the "zombie virus". According to the Center of Disease Control, approximately 15 000 healthy individuals are suspected to remain within the quarantine zone.

Speaking at a press conference, Vice President Ocasio-Cortez said that the decision to seal in uninfected US citizens to prevent a further spread of the disease was "the hardest choice any politician could possibly face". She advised the population of Seattle to make their way to one of the 4 checkpoints, where they would be examined and released if they do not carry the virus. Meanwhile, President Warren undergoes continued treatment at a specialized facility of undisclosed location after coming in contact with the virus.

[...]

Church officials continue to refuse comments on the situation. Within the first days of the outbreak becoming public, in a rare joint statement many Christian churches had proclaimed that "the final days are upon us" and urged the faithful to make their way "Seattle, the city of salvation". In the weeks since, approximately 32% of registered members have left those churches. The Pope has withdrawn do his chambers in the Vatican for silent contemplation.

A Drowned Kernel has been killed! They were the Zombie Apocalypse, the Vanilla Cop!

Uncleeurope has been killed! They were Theonomy, the Vanilla Townie!

Day 2 begins!

Vote Count 2.0

Not Voting (12): Glooble, MiX, DatSwan, jotheonah, pingpongsam, mcmcsalot, EFHW, 2.71828....., ashersky, gkrieg13, pubby, silverspawn

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on June 19, 2019, 10:10:00 am.

Thread unlocked!

[EFHW]

I'm confused. Vanilla cop was a scum role.

[MiX]

I'm confused. Vanilla cop was a scum role.

It's also a town role.

Didn't have a lot of time to reread, finals and all. Hmm, poor debatepro I guess.

[gkrieg13]

I'm confused. Vanilla cop was a scum role.

It’s not only a town role, it’s the town role that tells us nothing

[ashersky]

I'm confused. Vanilla cop was a scum role.

It’s not only a town role, it’s the town role that tells us nothing

Isn't it a town role that tells us if someone is a PR or not?  I mean, that's not nothing.  It just isn't helpful for town, unless it's confirming/countering a VT claim at some point.

[ashersky]

I'm confused. Vanilla cop was a scum role.

It's also a town role.

Didn't have a lot of time to reread, finals and all. Hmm, poor debatepro I guess.

You were second on the wagon.  Your sympathy sounds fake.

[Glooble]

I'm confused. Vanilla cop was a scum role.

It’s not only a town role, it’s the town role that tells us nothing

Isn't it a town role that tells us if someone is a PR or not?  I mean, that's not nothing.  It just isn't helpful for town, unless it's confirming/countering a VT claim at some point.

I think gkrieg meant its the only town power role (other than neighbor) that's always in the game regardless of what choices the scum team makes. So unfortunately this flip doesn't tell us, say, that scum chose at least one modification, as most other town PR flips would have.

[ashersky]

I'm confused. Vanilla cop was a scum role.

It’s not only a town role, it’s the town role that tells us nothing

Isn't it a town role that tells us if someone is a PR or not?  I mean, that's not nothing.  It just isn't helpful for town, unless it's confirming/countering a VT claim at some point.

I think gkrieg meant its the only town power role (other than neighbor) that's always in the game regardless of what choices the scum team makes. So unfortunately this flip doesn't tell us, say, that scum chose at least one modification, as most other town PR flips would have.

That makes sense.

[EFHW]

I'm confused. Vanilla cop was a scum role.

It's also a town role.

Right, forgot to check the starting lineup.

[jotheonah]

So this means probably no SK, as one kill is from the neighborhood and the other is from scum. Unless the SK got blocked somehow or happened to target the same person as one of the others.

[EFHW]

So this means probably no SK, as one kill is from the neighborhood and the other is from scum. Unless the SK got blocked somehow or happened to target the same person as one of the others.

Which third party role would you pick?

[gkrieg13]

Not sure how I feel about neighborhood claiming, but definitely if there are 4 neighbors I think they should claim, as four neighbors definitely means scum is in the neighborhood.

[jotheonah]

Eddy is a weird kill choice, given his role in the debatepro lynch. I would have kept him around as a good mislynch. Did he have any strong scumreads? We should look closely at them...

So this means probably no SK, as one kill is from the neighborhood and the other is from scum. Unless the SK got blocked somehow or happened to target the same person as one of the others.

Which third party role would you pick?

Probably the serial killer.

[jotheonah]

Not sure how I feel about neighborhood claiming, but definitely if there are 4 neighbors I think they should claim, as four neighbors definitely means scum is in the neighborhood.

More accurately, it means non-town is in the neighhborhood. Three town and a Bodyguarded Neighbor Survivor third party is also possible.

[jotheonah]

Not sure how I feel about neighborhood claiming, but definitely if there are 4 neighbors I think they should claim, as four neighbors definitely means scum is in the neighborhood.

More accurately, it means non-town is in the neighhborhood. Three town and a Bodyguarded Neighbor Survivor third party is also possible.

Oh wait, no it's not. Removes Neighbor from town list.

[MiX]

Not sure how I feel about neighborhood claiming, but definitely if there are 4 neighbors I think they should claim, as four neighbors definitely means scum is in the neighborhood.

More accurately, it means non-town is in the neighhborhood. Three town and a Bodyguarded Neighbor Survivor third party is also possible.

Is it? Look closer.

So this means probably no SK, as one kill is from the neighborhood and the other is from scum. Unless the SK got blocked somehow or happened to target the same person as one of the others.

Which third party role would you pick?

Such a fun question: I would be super tempted to pick SK as well, but hopefully I wouldn't given the reputation I got last time...

PPE: There you go.

[jotheonah]

So I agree, a 4-person neighborhood should claim here. Would love a 1/4 chance of hitting scum.

[Glooble]

Eddy is a weird kill choice, given his role in the debatepro lynch. I would have kept him around as a good mislynch. Did he have any strong scumreads? We should look closely at them...

e. He really wanted to lynch e. But I'm reasonably sure Eddie was the vig kill and ADK was the scum kill.

[MiX]

So I agree, a 4-person neighborhood should claim here. Would love a 1/4 chance of hitting scum.

We have higher chances outsider this group. This is a fun setup.

Eddy is a weird kill choice, given his role in the debatepro lynch. I would have kept him around as a good mislynch. Did he have any strong scumreads? We should look closely at them...

e. He really wanted to lynch e. But I'm reasonably sure Eddie was the vig kill and ADK was the scum kill.

I disagree completely, I think it's almost obvious it's the contrary.

Vote: Glooble because why not.

[gkrieg13]

So I agree, a 4-person neighborhood should claim here. Would love a 1/4 chance of hitting scum.

We have higher chances outsider this group. This is a fun setup.

True, but it still gives us a good split of groups we can think about.

[gkrieg13]

So I agree, a 4-person neighborhood should claim here. Would love a 1/4 chance of hitting scum.

We have higher chances outsider this group. This is a fun setup.

Eddy is a weird kill choice, given his role in the debatepro lynch. I would have kept him around as a good mislynch. Did he have any strong scumreads? We should look closely at them...

e. He really wanted to lynch e. But I'm reasonably sure Eddie was the vig kill and ADK was the scum kill.

I disagree completely, I think it's almost obvious it's the contrary.

Vote: Glooble because why not.

Haha, didn't even read the second half of the quote. Why do you think Eddie was killed by scum? His D1 EoD is very scummy.

[Glooble]

So I agree, a 4-person neighborhood should claim here. Would love a 1/4 chance of hitting scum.

We have higher chances outsider this group. This is a fun setup.

Eddy is a weird kill choice, given his role in the debatepro lynch. I would have kept him around as a good mislynch. Did he have any strong scumreads? We should look closely at them...

e. He really wanted to lynch e. But I'm reasonably sure Eddie was the vig kill and ADK was the scum kill.

I disagree completely, I think it's almost obvious it's the contrary.

Vote: Glooble because why not.

Why do you think the contrary is obvious?

[MiX]

So I agree, a 4-person neighborhood should claim here. Would love a 1/4 chance of hitting scum.

We have higher chances outsider this group. This is a fun setup.

True, but it still gives us a good split of groups we can think about.

Agreed, it's a really good thing to reveal, but we should lynch outside of it.

PPE 2: Because I think Uncle was very very very very towny.

[gkrieg13]

I think I asked Glooble about joth, but what does joth think about Glooble this game?

[Glooble]

PPE 2: Because I think Uncle was very very very very towny.

And you don't think ADK was?

Now that I think about it, I don't think anyone raised much suspicion on either of them Day 1. I'd have to read back to be sure.

[Glooble]

Eddy is a weird kill choice, given his role in the debatepro lynch. I would have kept him around as a good mislynch. Did he have any strong scumreads? We should look closely at them...

FOS: joth.

ADK's last post was this:

I think we should take a serious look at joth tomorrow

Trying to shift discussion to the *other* nightkill's scumreads when one nightkill's top scumread is very obviously you is hella suspicious.

[MiX]

PPE 2: Because I think Uncle was very very very very towny.

And you don't think ADK was?

Now that I think about it, I don't think anyone raised much suspicion on either of them Day 1. I'd have to read back to be sure.

ADK is also a weird read, but all we know there's only 1 neighbor and they were scumreading ADK. But okay I suppose there's people who didn't like Uncle's D1 EoD so both are possible. If that's true then it's sad...

Okay both are possible but I have to agree that it makes more sense that ADK was the NK.

PPE: I think it's both Glooble and joth here.

[jotheonah]

I think I asked Glooble about joth, but what does joth think about Glooble this game?

I think he's towny. Or I did until the post he just made.

[jotheonah]

Eddy is a weird kill choice, given his role in the debatepro lynch. I would have kept him around as a good mislynch. Did he have any strong scumreads? We should look closely at them...

FOS: joth.

ADK's last post was this:

I think we should take a serious look at joth tomorrow

Trying to shift discussion to the *other* nightkill's scumreads when one nightkill's top scumread is very obviously you is hella suspicious.

I assumed someone would bring that up eventually, but I thought bringing up proactively would be read as scummy. Guess it's a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don't kind of a thing? Anyway, ADK was town and also wrong about me. A thing that happens all the time.

[jotheonah]

The other benefit of a neighborclaim is that they can tell us which kill was whose.

[Glooble]

I think I asked Glooble about joth, but what does joth think about Glooble this game?

I think he's towny. Or I did until the post he just made.

What exactly was it about that post that changed your read on me?

[jotheonah]

I think I asked Glooble about joth, but what does joth think about Glooble this game?

I think he's towny. Or I did until the post he just made.

What exactly was it about that post that changed your read on me?

Nothing. It was a joke. I still think you're town. But that thing you said about switching focus was quite a stretch.

[MiX]

Well, let’s try it.

vote: MiX

Yeah, there’s not enough time Eddie. Let’s go back to vote: debate

This was a waste of time that made you not look like the first person on board debate's wagon.

The rest of this day will be me switching votes between Glooble and joth.

Vote: joth

[jotheonah]

Well, let’s try it.

vote: MiX

Yeah, there’s not enough time Eddie. Let’s go back to vote: debate

This was a waste of time that made you not look like the first person on board debate's wagon.

The rest of this day will be me switching votes between Glooble and joth.

Vote: joth

That was me sincerely trying to get you lynched, but everybody was asleep and it almost cost us the debate lynch. But I guess if we're gonna do this we might as well do this.

vote: MiX

[gkrieg13]

PPE: I think it's both Glooble and joth here.

Interesting, why?

[jotheonah]

I feel like there's a good chance MiX came into the scum QT with "my meta is basically endlessly fighting with joth even when we're both town, so I'm gonna hard commit to that"

[gkrieg13]

Well, let’s try it.

vote: MiX

Yeah, there’s not enough time Eddie. Let’s go back to vote: debate

This was a waste of time that made you not look like the first person on board debate's wagon.

The rest of this day will be me switching votes between Glooble and joth.

Vote: joth

That was me sincerely trying to get you lynched, but everybody was asleep and it almost cost us the debate lynch. But I guess if we're gonna do this we might as well do this.

vote: MiX

This is a scummy vote.

[MiX]

PPE: I think it's both Glooble and joth here.

Interesting, why?

Haven't reread much but my scumread on joth still hasn't faded. Glooble mostly because I read twin interactions as scummy.

I feel like there's a good chance MiX came into the scum QT with "my meta is basically endlessly fighting with joth even when we're both town, so I'm gonna hard commit to that"

You have a real scum game of me, you can see what I think and act...and it's not this.

[pubby]

I wonder if e is a neighbor and prompted the kill on eddie.

vote: joth

Not changing my vote, etc etc. Should have stuck with my gut.

[gkrieg13]

I wonder if e is a neighbor and prompted the kill on eddie.

? Why?

[jotheonah]

Well, let’s try it.

vote: MiX

Yeah, there’s not enough time Eddie. Let’s go back to vote: debate

This was a waste of time that made you not look like the first person on board debate's wagon.

The rest of this day will be me switching votes between Glooble and joth.

Vote: joth

That was me sincerely trying to get you lynched, but everybody was asleep and it almost cost us the debate lynch. But I guess if we're gonna do this we might as well do this.

vote: MiX

This is a scummy vote.

You're a scummy vote. I'm just really tired of this me and MiX thing. It feels really played out. He scumreads me for no reason. I scumread him for no reason. We both recognize it but we do it anyway. It feels like it's every game that we play together. And then there's pubby who's literal only contribution to the game has been to pop in once a day and say how scummy I am.

Honestly, that doesn't make either of them scum. It probably makes them annoying town. But I'm just so tired of being scumread no matter what I do, especially by the same people. It would be one thing if anyone had posted anything resembling a case on me, but nope.

[jotheonah]

unvote I guess

[MiX]

Unvote

[MiX]

As with the last game, that post proved that this is town!joth, which is something that had been building up all through D1. Less sure of it because I already said how I read him, but I still think scum!joth would be different, after all he's not perfect, right?

Vote: e for my next bogus scumread.

One day I'll do a VCA. One day.

[silverspawn]

ugh @flips

so, is there any reason why we shouldn't have a neighborhood claim?

[MiX]

ugh @flips

so, is there any reason why we shouldn't have a neighborhood claim?

Any reason we should?

[silverspawn]

ugh @flips

so, is there any reason why we shouldn't have a neighborhood claim?

Any reason we should?

um... yeah. if there's just one neighbor, they're an IC. if there's just two neighbors and one of them flips scum, the other is an IC. etc. We get a set of players with at most one scum in it. That's big.

[Glooble]

ugh @flips

so, is there any reason why we shouldn't have a neighborhood claim?

Any reason we should?

um... yeah. if there's just one neighbor, they're an IC. if there's just two neighbors and one of them flips scum, the other is an IC. etc. We get a set of players with at most one scum in it. That's big.

Also it gives us some insight into how many PRs scum might have.

[silverspawn]

And I don't think there's a downside. It just seems obvious that the neighbors claim day 2 in this setup. But I want everyone to be able to point out what I'm missing if I'm missing something before  we do it.

[jotheonah]

I'm pro-neighbor claim but here's my caveat: One neighbor should claim, and say how many neighbors there are, first. I don't think there's necessarily a reason to out the whole neighborhood at once, especially because it does improve scum's POE for other power roles, which might be powerful.

[silverspawn]

Mh.

If there is one neighbor, it doesn't make a difference.

If there are two, I think that's a bad idea, because then if the claimed person dies, we don't know who the other (scum?) is

If it's three of four, it seems like a good idea.

[EFHW]

It seems to me extremely likely that scum would have chosen the neighbor option. Does anyone have a narrative where they might not have?

[MiX]

It seems to me extremely likely that scum would have chosen the neighbor option. Does anyone have a narrative where they might not have?

Scum that want to play around that? It would be one of my first choices, but not as automatic as, say, traitor knows mafia.

I really like the claim by the way, good arguments.

[gkrieg13]

It seems to me extremely likely that scum would have chosen the neighbor option. Does anyone have a narrative where they might not have?

It would have been my first choice.

[Swowl]

@ Neighbor Claim:

1 Neighbor - They should prob claim, we get an IC, and skum is forced to kill them off instead of PR hunting... i think that is a good play.

4 Neighbors - I doubt if there were 4 we would still be having this convo, they obviously would know a skum is in the hood, and because of that skum knows who is in the hood, so all it does is give town POV plus and then of course when we find that skum the other members are IC.

2-3 Neighbors - This is tricky. Either option gives the possibilities of [all town, town and skum] with the additional possibility of [town and survivor, or town skum survivor]. If skum is in the hood, then they have all the info... so a claim tells them nothing but helps town. If skum is not in the hood then they don’t have the info and it just helps them iso their kill selection at night.

All of that is fairly easily calculated - the important part is this:
If there are 2-3 members in the hood, and they claim, we have no idea if they are all town, or if not, which one is skum. I just don’t know if the risk/reward is there for the claim.

Like, let’s say there are 3. They claim. What do we do? Leave them alone or start lynching them? If skum is in there then it could be a good idea, but if skum is not on there, they just learned 3 people that don’t have PRs. If we decide to start lynching them we could just be throwing the game right there if they are all town.


TLDR; it all comes down to how likely we think it is that skum picked to be in the pool. When skum was choosing roles they MUST OF considered that choosing to be in the hood would put them in a potential situation where they are being hunted for based on a claim (or if there were 4 in hood)... makes me feel like it is far fetched to say “they for sure picked it”.

If there was 1 or 4 we would either already know, or we will know soon i assume.
If there are 2-3, for reasons best not discussed at this time, i do not think they should claim today.

[Swowl]

Also, in specific regard to this neighbor claim - we generally view the possibility of a survivor as town right? Real question - pretty unfamiliar with that role.

[MiX]

Also, in specific regard to this neighbor claim - we generally view the possibility of a survivor as town right? Real question - pretty unfamiliar with that role.

If they wanted to be scum they would pick traitor, so as of right now I'm assuming they think town has better odds of winning. Regardless we should assume the worst, and that's traitor, and given we need to kill scum I'm fine with letting survivor pass if scum neighbor flips.

[silverspawn]

I don't think it's obvious that scum would choose neighbor, and I don't think that it's obvious that a large or small neighborhood is less or more useful. They're all really good. Having a set of people where you know how many scum are in there is really really good. Say they're four. If we find the scum among them, we create 3 ICs just like that.

[Swowl]

I don't think it's obvious that scum would choose neighbor, and I don't think that it's obvious that a large or small neighborhood is less or more useful. They're all really good. Having a set of people where you know how many scum are in there is really really good. Say they're four. If we find the scum among them, we create 3 ICs just like that.

Right - if there is 1 or 4 they should claim. 2-3 is the part i have an issue with

[silverspawn]

If 3 or 4 are still alive, we can delay the claim one day. But let's not risk not having it.

[MiX]

If 3 or 4 are still alive, we can delay the claim one day. But let's not risk not having it.

How could you risk not having it? There's no way all neighbors die at the same time.

[silverspawn]

If two are alive now, one scum and one town, and the town gets NKd, we risk not having it, because the scum would just not claim. That's why we should only claim if 3 or 4 are still alive right now: as you said, we won't have two deaths at the same time, and there is at most one scum. So if 3 are still alive today, then at least 1 town is still alive tomorrow

[silverspawn]

EBWOP:

If two are alive now, one scum and one town, and the town gets NKd, we risk not having it, because the scum would just not claim. That's why we should only delay the claim if 3 or 4 are still alive right now: as you said, we won't have two deaths at the same time, and there is at most one scum. So if 3 are still alive today, then at least 1 town is still alive tomorrow

[2.71828.....]

@ Neighbor Claim:

1 Neighbor - They should prob claim, we get an IC, and skum is forced to kill them off instead of PR hunting... i think that is a good play.

4 Neighbors - I doubt if there were 4 we would still be having this convo, they obviously would know a skum is in the hood, and because of that skum knows who is in the hood, so all it does is give town POV plus and then of course when we find that skum the other members are IC.

2-3 Neighbors - This is tricky. Either option gives the possibilities of [all town, town and skum] with the additional possibility of [town and survivor, or town skum survivor]. If skum is in the hood, then they have all the info... so a claim tells them nothing but helps town. If skum is not in the hood then they don’t have the info and it just helps them iso their kill selection at night.

All of that is fairly easily calculated - the important part is this:
If there are 2-3 members in the hood, and they claim, we have no idea if they are all town, or if not, which one is skum. I just don’t know if the risk/reward is there for the claim.

Like, let’s say there are 3. They claim. What do we do? Leave them alone or start lynching them? If skum is in there then it could be a good idea, but if skum is not on there, they just learned 3 people that don’t have PRs. If we decide to start lynching them we could just be throwing the game right there if they are all town.


TLDR; it all comes down to how likely we think it is that skum picked to be in the pool. When skum was choosing roles they MUST OF considered that choosing to be in the hood would put them in a potential situation where they are being hunted for based on a claim (or if there were 4 in hood)... makes me feel like it is far fetched to say “they for sure picked it”.

If there was 1 or 4 we would either already know, or we will know soon i assume.
If there are 2-3, for reasons best not discussed at this time, i do not think they should claim today.

I think this is a pretty good summary and also points to why we shouldn't "force the neighborhood to claim"

I think members of the neighborhood should claim if something significant happened in that neighborhood that could help us catch scum, but if not there is no reason to claim. And I trust each player in the game is able to do that if they were in the neighborhood.

[2.71828.....]

Sorry I want around much D1, dropping off my in laws at the airport this morning which should help getting into D2 a lot better

[faust]

Vote Count 2.1

jotheonah (1): pubby
2.71828..... (1): MiX

Not Voting (10): Glooble, DatSwan, pingpongsam, mcmcsalot, EFHW, 2.71828....., ashersky, gkrieg13, silverspawn, jotheonah

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on June 19, 2019, 10:10:00 am.

[Swowl]

OK I have done my Day 1 VCA and it is unfortunately lame. The end of the day has some points for now, but that is about it:

This is VC 1.9:

MiX (1): pingpongsam
jotheonah (2): pubby, A Drowned Kernel
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....
Deatepro (3): jotheonah, EFHW, Uncleeurope

Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky

- OK so I am *assuming* there is a traitor that knows who skum is.
-Pubby gets run up to L1. We know that the L2 player is town (Debate).
- The unknown player who put it at L1 (E!) *probably*would not of done that if they could of moved to Town!Debate instead if pubby is mafia.
- So at the minimum, E! kind of cannot be traitor if Pubby is Skum, and E!Pubby is most likely not a thing. It could be Skum vs Town and it could be Town vs Town, but those are kind of the only two options.
- I am leaning on the town side of things for E! right now, so that makes me want to look at [silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13] in this grouping.


Fast forwarding slightly, we get to the final vote count of:

MiX (3): pingpongsam, debatepro
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, gkrieg13, 2.71828.....
Debatepro (: jotheonah, EFHW, MiX, pubby, ADK, Glooble, silverspawn, Uncleeurope

Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky

That is 6 unknowns and 2 town on a town lynch.

Reading back, the people I want to be suspicious of are either in the start of the wagon [Joth EFHW MiX], all of which I am leaning townish on right now.
Then at the end of the wagon [Glooble, SS].

The people that match with the Pubby wagon logic are [Glooble, SS, MiX].

Anyone have any thoughts on that?

[ashersky]

There’s no such thing as a bad MiX lynch.

[pingpongsam]

I wish previous day votes were persistent so I didn’t have to bother with Vote: MiX.

I just spent the night in Reagan National in DC thanks to my connecting flight being late af. This is probably as close to drunk as I can get since I don’t drink. AMA. Flight boards in 20 minutes.

[EFHW]

Which third party role would you pick?

[pingpongsam]

Which third party role would you pick?

 I didn’t read much of the setup. It looked hard so I skipped it. But I’ll take a look at the options now and throw a dart at one for you.

Okay, so if I had to pick I’d go with rolestopper, which I guess is the same as roleblocker? But if I didn’t have to pick then I just wouldn’t so I can watch everyone wallow in WIFOM when in reality it’s just a standard deck we’re dealt.

[silverspawn]

I would have definitely picked either the tracker guy who wants all PRs dead or the neighborhood guy.

[MiX]

Which third party role would you pick?

 I didn’t read much of the setup. It looked hard so I skipped it. But I’ll take a look at the options now and throw a dart at one for you.

Okay, so if I had to pick I’d go with rolestopper, which I guess is the same as roleblocker? But if I didn’t have to pick then I just wouldn’t so I can watch everyone wallow in WIFOM when in reality it’s just a standard deck we’re dealt.

So is this a towntell from pps? Regardless I don't think he can be third-party.

There’s no such thing as a bad MiX lynch.

Why do you think I'm scum?

[jotheonah]

pps I'm sorry hanging out didn't work out, crazy week for me, but I hope my fair city treated you well. Maybe next time!

Everybody's suddenly voting MiX now and I just said I wouldn't. :/

I'm V/LA all weekend, including Friday -- heading to the Berkshires for a wedding and not planning to be online throughout that time. I'll try to do a reread and plant a vote today or tonight.

[Glooble]

Tracker reporter seemed like the obvious choice to me, just because power roles tend to die before the game ends anyway.

But then I realized you still would have to survive a lot of lynches and a lot of nightkills, which can be a tricky balance (if you're towny enough not to get lynched, you're towny enough for scum to kill you.) So probably better to take neighbor survivor, where at least you have a buffer against half of the equation.

Anyway, what exactly is the point of this line of questioning?

[ashersky]

There’s no such thing as a bad MiX lynch.

Why do you think I'm scum?

I don't think you are town.  I think because you aren't towny in general, so it's hard to think of you as town.

This game, your odd stances on voting certain players throws me off, because willy nilly stuff like that is generally anti-town.

[ashersky]

I'm surprised at people's thinking on third party choices.  If you want to win (regardless of fun), you don't go it alone.  SK/Survivor is hard.

You have to choose to join the mafia, making a 5-player team.  Even unknown, that's just a huge boon and a difficult situation for town.  I mean, maybe you could go survivor and claim?  If Neighbors stay hidden, Mafia have to decide whether to shoot you to kill neighbors or not.  But just being a traitor seems like the best move.

Again, that is if you choose based on wanting to win.  If you choose for fun or personal preference, there's no real rhyme or reason that matters.

[ashersky]

Some quick reads:

PPS is towny, 2.7 is towny, joth feels towny, which might mean something different.
Glooble sits firmly in the safe zone of null.
MiX is scummy for not being towny.  Faust is scummy for not being NKed N1. 
SS feels scummy, which probably means he's town.
I like Dat's effort.  EFHW taking on the faust inquisitor role is fine. 

Wake up vote: mom salon

[jotheonah]

Ashersky and Datswan, where were you yesterday? If you knew you wouldn’t be online before deadline, why didn’t you plant your vote somewhere, anywhere, before you checked out?

[ashersky]

Ashersky and Datswan, where were you yesterday? If you knew you wouldn’t be online before deadline, why didn’t you plant your vote somewhere, anywhere, before you checked out?

My bad there.  I came to the forum four minutes after deadline.

I don't know why I don't vote very much.  That mcmc vote might be my first of the game.  Since I came back after my long break, I've been reticent to overuse my votes. 

As for D1, that was just my mistake on timing.  Time zones are hard, I guess.  IRL as well.

[MiX]

Definitely agreed that faust is scum, but without a mod I don't think town can win... Jokes aside I agree with ash's read list almost completely.

Vote: Glooble, FoS: mcmc

[EFHW]

Tracker reporter seemed like the obvious choice to me, just because power roles tend to die before the game ends anyway.

But then I realized you still would have to survive a lot of lynches and a lot of nightkills, which can be a tricky balance (if you're towny enough not to get lynched, you're towny enough for scum to kill you.) So probably better to take neighbor survivor, where at least you have a buffer against half of the equation.

Anyway, what exactly is the point of this line of questioning?

Is it bothering you?

[mcmcsalot]

I promise I’ll reread soon. Super super sorry

[Glooble]

Tracker reporter seemed like the obvious choice to me, just because power roles tend to die before the game ends anyway.

But then I realized you still would have to survive a lot of lynches and a lot of nightkills, which can be a tricky balance (if you're towny enough not to get lynched, you're towny enough for scum to kill you.) So probably better to take neighbor survivor, where at least you have a buffer against half of the equation.

Anyway, what exactly is the point of this line of questioning?

Is it bothering you?

Not particularly. I don't think it's harmful to speculate about, but I'm also having a hard time seeing the benefit.

[jotheonah]

Ok, I give up. vote: MiX

I think I figured out what's bugging me about MiX this game. He's totally spineless, just doing whatever he can to get people to like him! I posted that whole stupid appeal to emotion thing (which was completely legit, but objectively kind of BS) and he responded by unvoting me. Well, if he was really scumreading me, why would he do that? And then just now ash posts a list and it's "I agree completely".

I mean, his first vote is to join the wagon on himself! How much more of a people-pleaser can you be?

Day 1 he hands out a lot of town passes, and votes for people, but then backs off as soon as they respond (random example:

Why am I scummier than EFHW?

You explained a point that didn't have to be explained further, and in fact I think it was anti-town to explain it. EFHW left it more in the wind.

On the other hand you're town now and EFHW's scummier still, so maybe I was wrong.

Vote: ss

)

Later on in the day, he does start to actually commit to reads/votes after a little pushback, mainly on Debate and on me. Maybe those are wagons he's concluded will be reasonably popular? Maybe being on my case is a "freebie" given our weird meta?

But overall, MiX this game seems not just fickle and vote jumpy (which is par for the course for MiX) but fickle, vote jumpy, and people-pleasy, which could just be MiX trying to adapt to the fact that he's often scumread erroneously (like me!) but I find that adaptation more likely from scum!MiX (or Survivor/SK!MiX). Backing off of people as soon as they pushback seems like the strategy of someone who values staying alive over lynching scum.

[MiX]

I had a post ready to defend myself, when I realized I only really get in the game if people vote for me. This probably means I deserve the votes.

My reads are a bit weak, I don't have good cases and I fall back on my votes too easily. That's a good case, right? What can I say, it's true.

Ash's readslist is really good, just disagree with his take on e and myself, oh and joth/ss are both town.

[jotheonah]

I had a post ready to defend myself, when I realized I only really get in the game if people vote for me. This probably means I deserve the votes.

My reads are a bit weak, I don't have good cases and I fall back on my votes too easily. That's a good case, right? What can I say, it's true.

Ash's readslist is really good, just disagree with his take on e and myself, oh and joth/ss are both town.

thanks for 100% proving my point I guess?

[MiX]

I had a post ready to defend myself, when I realized I only really get in the game if people vote for me. This probably means I deserve the votes.

My reads are a bit weak, I don't have good cases and I fall back on my votes too easily. That's a good case, right? What can I say, it's true.

Ash's readslist is really good, just disagree with his take on e and myself, oh and joth/ss are both town.

thanks for 100% proving my point I guess?

Am I pleasing people by being passive? I can see mcmc's anger for my passiveness from here, and surely others will say the same. I don't think I would make this post as scum, I would sooner say why I think Glooble's scum or something.

[jotheonah]

I had a post ready to defend myself, when I realized I only really get in the game if people vote for me. This probably means I deserve the votes.

My reads are a bit weak, I don't have good cases and I fall back on my votes too easily. That's a good case, right? What can I say, it's true.

Ash's readslist is really good, just disagree with his take on e and myself, oh and joth/ss are both town.

thanks for 100% proving my point I guess?

Am I pleasing people by being passive? I can see mcmc's anger for my passiveness from here, and surely others will say the same. I don't think I would make this post as scum, I would sooner say why I think Glooble's scum or something.

I just accused you of basically agreeing with everything and then you basically agreed with me.

[2.71828.....]

I had a post ready to defend myself, when I realized I only really get in the game if people vote for me. This probably means I deserve the votes.

My reads are a bit weak, I don't have good cases and I fall back on my votes too easily. That's a good case, right? What can I say, it's true.

Ash's readslist is really good, just disagree with his take on e and myself, oh and joth/ss are both town.

I get that. Town on MiX.

[MiX]

I had a post ready to defend myself, when I realized I only really get in the game if people vote for me. This probably means I deserve the votes.

My reads are a bit weak, I don't have good cases and I fall back on my votes too easily. That's a good case, right? What can I say, it's true.

Ash's readslist is really good, just disagree with his take on e and myself, oh and joth/ss are both town.

I get that. Town on MiX.

This makes me a little more null on e. Is that possible?

[MiX]

I just accused you of basically agreeing with everything and then you basically agreed with me.

And town!me would do...what? Fight back, call you obv!scum, deny facts, provide an amazing case that I didn't provide earlier because I was waiting for someone to accuse me of being passive...no really what did you expect? Town!me has nothing to disprove what you said.

[2.71828.....]

I had a post ready to defend myself, when I realized I only really get in the game if people vote for me. This probably means I deserve the votes.

My reads are a bit weak, I don't have good cases and I fall back on my votes too easily. That's a good case, right? What can I say, it's true.

Ash's readslist is really good, just disagree with his take on e and myself, oh and joth/ss are both town.

I get that. Town on MiX.

This makes me a little more null on e. Is that possible?

More null than null?

[MiX]

I had a post ready to defend myself, when I realized I only really get in the game if people vote for me. This probably means I deserve the votes.

My reads are a bit weak, I don't have good cases and I fall back on my votes too easily. That's a good case, right? What can I say, it's true.

Ash's readslist is really good, just disagree with his take on e and myself, oh and joth/ss are both town.

I get that. Town on MiX.

This makes me a little more null on e. Is that possible?

More null than null?

More null than scum. As in, I don't think what you said makes you townier, but I think you're less scum. So overall I don't know what to think of it. Still think you're scum, however, but I think Glooble's even more. Given there's at least 4 living scum I think PoE means one of you two have to be scum. I'll think about this in the weekend, after finals.

[Glooble]

One thing I've noticed this town in particular loves doing is saying "I think this person is scum" and then not laying down any kind of a case to back that up. We had pubby and joth, Eddie and e, and now MiX and me.

[MiX]

One thing I've noticed this town in particular loves doing is saying "I think this person is scum" and then not laying down any kind of a case to back that up. We had pubby and joth, Eddie and e, and now MiX and me.

Wait, who do you think is scum?

[Glooble]

One thing I've noticed this town in particular loves doing is saying "I think this person is scum" and then not laying down any kind of a case to back that up. We had pubby and joth, Eddie and e, and now MiX and me.

Wait, who do you think is scum?

If I had a strong scum read, I would be voting for them.

[pubby]

I'd be fine voting for MiX actually. It rubbed me the wrong way how behaved around my joth vote. He was absolutely voting to please me and start a bandwagon - he said he'd vote with me before I even gave my reasoning (and it's not like the reasoning I gave was strong anyway). Funnily enough, he switches his vote to me almost immediately after once he realizes people would rather bandwagon vote me than joth.

[pubby]

I wonder if e is a neighbor and prompted the kill on eddie.

? Why?

I'm trying to guess which player was scum-killed and which player was neighborhood-killed. I think ADK came off more towny yesterday, and Eddie came off more scummy, so maybe scum killed ADK and neighbors killed Eddie. And the player most likely to have a bone to pick with Eddie is e.

Don't think this matters much at all though

[MiX]

I'd be fine voting for MiX actually. It rubbed me the wrong way how behaved around my joth vote. He was absolutely voting to please me and start a bandwagon - he said he'd vote with me before I even gave my reasoning (and it's not like the reasoning I gave was strong anyway). Funnily enough, he switches his vote to me almost immediately after once he realizes people would rather bandwagon vote me than joth.

Your case was good enough and it fit right in with the narrative I already had. Besides, a joth lynch would be better than what we did, which was to go after 2 new players that act scummy for reasons (haven't figured out yours yet).

I swapped for you just to see what would happen, I didn't mean for you to get lynched. It was a silly decision but I was extremely tired and I felt like impacting the game with my vote. For me it confirmed you're town, given how quickly you went to L-1.

Gut scum reads from chum to scum: joth (yeah, still can be, I don't know...), mcmc, E, Glooble. Just for future reference.

[silverspawn]

I totally forgot about who was scummy this game, but I'll get into it via a reread and then tell you make a wild guess about whether MiX is scummy or not.

[faust]

Vote Count 2.2

jotheonah (1): pubby
MiX (2): pingpongsam, jotheonah
mcmcsalot (1): ashersky
Glooble (1): MiX

Not Voting (7): Glooble, DatSwan, mcmcsalot, EFHW, 2.71828....., gkrieg13, silverspawn

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on June 19, 2019, 10:10:00 am.

[Swowl]

So, as I chose to do the VCA and then come up with the concept of looking into [MiX, Glooble, SS] I felt I should do some ISOs. BEWARE the wall posts to come. They have good info (or at least I think they do) but they are sadly disappointing.

One thing, inference, guess, whatever you want to call it, that I did take away from it - I have never done a VCA and not been able to then ISO out the players and find someone that I feel confident in pursuing (at least compared to the others on the list). As of this game right now, it has now happened. This leads me to believe Mafia has Day Chat. Upon thinking about it after doing the ISO's - a fantastic combo would be [Traitor Knows Mafia + Day Chat]. It would allow them to coordinate through the day to not who they think is the Traitor (or Traitors), as well would explain why the VCA is so hard to interpret.

We also may want to look into players that normally are super active Day 1, but were not this Day 1. As, if they have day chat, they could of been using up their time speaking there instead of in the public thread.


All that aside - here are the 3 sets of notes I have on MiX, Glooble and SS...

[Swowl]

Silver Notes:

114 - votes GK for the comment about Mafia winning N1. I don't see how that is skummy talk. Personally, I had not considered that that could be an option. But if there are 5 Mafia (2 of them traitors), it could of pointed out to a potential Town PGO that N1 may not be the best night to activate their ability because of the Hood Vig Kill.

128 - find both MiX and the people on his wagon skummy - That is MiX plus [mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, pingpongsam, Debatepro]. Aside from being just a amazingly open ended accusation, we also now know that ADK and Debate were town. Just to be noted - but for inferences I am choosing not to go into right now, this post really pinged me in the wrong way.

211 - points out they are aware of the fact that the majority of their posts are non-committal... which is absolutely true. It is also a skum trait. I just can't decide if vocalizing it is skummy/defensive or towny trying to help.

261 - policy votes MiX - This kind of plays into post 128. I don't necessarily disagree with the concept of the policy vote or its merits, but they opened the door to be able to vote 5/12 other players, then continues to go for PPS, then for MiX, and also ends up on the Debatepro eod wagon. Again, another thing that isn't like "skummy" because they did say they skum read all of those players... but also the open ended nature of it is just weird.

277 - defends MiX vs Joth

298 - Previously skum read [Mix, mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, pingpongsam, Debatepro]. Now does a re read and find Pubby as skummy and town block is [ADK, Glooble, Eddie, Joth]. - So ADK moves to town from skum. It appears MiX does as well based on 277. [Glooble, Eddie, Joth] are town blocked. And [MCMC, PPS, DebatePro] are dropped from the SR list. There were like 100+ posts, so things could of changed, but that is a lot of changes.

370 - Debatepro is an OK lynch again.

378 - Doesn't want to lynch E or Joth. Already had Joth on that list, and gave a good explanation for E! not being the best choice.

400 - Doesn't want to lynch EFHW or GK

454 - unvotes pubby. Had been previously saying they would not unvote until pubby showed up and answered some stuff, but unvotes when pubby gets to L1. Town points I think there.

458 - Votes E after stating they did not want to lynch E. Later says they did not have the actual intention of lynching E.

517 - moves vote to Debate pro when there is only 13 minutes


Summary - They are pushing angles, but not committing to a given one. They are leaving things open, but it was Day 1, so that isn't really too crazy. In between all of that I think their general energy is Towny. All in all, I do not think they would be the best of what I find acceptable options for today.

[Swowl]

MiX Notes:

124 - So everything up to this point is just early game interaction. Makes some early day 1 "they are town" calls... says Joth is Skum (or SK, to be specific), votes around a little bit and lands on SS. In this post they also make an error saying there won't be ICs in this game. Given the Hood situation there is absolutely a way for there to be IC(s) in this game. Don't think it was a slip, but worth noting.

132 - alone this post means nothing, but when paired with 124, it makes me think possible slip? MiX states that they "have the skum team solved"... it is joth/gkrieg/ss/e, mcmc's survivor... but they "don't know who the SK is". When called out on it they say "Ah I thought that was the case, I meant 1/4 of them was the traitor". I am inclined to believe MiX here as someone that often puts their foot to mouth myself. So right now, nothing to be had from this, but it should be noted for potential later days.

175 - votes GK for "letting the traitor know how to play". Odd vote. The traitor knows how to play. No traitor is gonna come out and purposefully over crumb, and talking about it certainly is not skummy.

Then there is a lot of filler - not that it is bad I guess, just kind of conversations for conversations sake.

256 - I don't need to follow through if it doesn't help town bit.

278 - The key to not breaking promises is to not make them - this is correct. it also shouldn't be like a revaluation. as town you should be able to make very few "promises".

307 - Defending me and ADK vs Debatepro. In hindsight, and with pov, this is MiX defending 2 town vs a town. Again, I want to say conf!bias skummy, but it obv could also be town v town/town/town.

340 - Good break down of Debatepro's reads list, which they could of used to attack them, but did not.

460 - leaves pubby when they are at L1 - as I think pubby was a weird wagon at the time, I assign town points for that.

Mix then goes on to finish middle wagon on Debatepro. There is other stuff, but I am not going into all of it.



Summary:

1) MiX is playing different than usual:

I have played like 5 games with MiX. I was skum once, they pushed the shit out of me correctly. I was town 4 times. 3 of those 4 times I thought they were skum and they were town, the time I hard defended them they were the SK. So, take any inferences I seem to be making with a grain of salt - I am not claiming to to be a MiX read expert.
Different in this instance has more to do with 2 things:
a) They are being far more defensive of people voting them than they usually are.
b) They are being far more cooperative in general then they normally are.
*As they have played the same in any game I can think of in the past, the a/b above are kind of NAI, but they are def different than usual*

2) MiX is doing a good job of being active this game, but they are putting a lot of questions on other people instead of intensely breaking down one person at a time (which is the mix I know, as both town and/or mafia). The game this feels most similar to is when they were SK.

So on MiX I am leaning either like EXACTLY Traitor, or town... which sucks because that is 2 out of three cases that don't really have a great end point to go on.

[Swowl]

Glooble Notes:

198 - up to this point standard RVS shit. Disagrees with mylo day 2 concept, takes a stance on SK hunting vs Traitor hunting... the usual stuff. Then in this post they jump on me for my interaction with Ashes after EFHW opens the door. Not OMGUS... it just strikes me a skummy.

206 - post about mis interpretation vs mis characterization. That part doesn't matter. What does matter is the way they talk about it as if they know Ashes is town.

209 - again attacking me. this time with the concept of "mafia 101, skum wants to create suspicion". This is actually a fair point in Glooble's defense. It was not my intention, but there inference of the situation is not necessarily skummy.

250 - Glooble reads the skum thread ADK and I brought up to clear the air... kind of. They read, I am assuming, the first page or so, and then came back and posted. I have not played enough with them to know if that rush is skummy or not - but I am pointing it out.

306 - I do not think Town has a reason to lie about anything. - Lord save me and never let awaclus ever see this... but in the time I have actually played with Glooble, I can say that he is a good enough player to know that is a false statement.

403 - points out in this size game that there will be lurkers and that it is likely that we will find skum there. I am gonna expand on that more later, but a hell of a towny point to make.

422 - more town points. pushing for consolidating wagons.

Glooble ends up on the Debatepro wagon. Their end of day posts struck me as towny.


Summary:

Fuck if i know. I think the fact they were so fixated on me and ADK is odd, but it is also understandable. They do skummy stuff, but the overall interaction seems to be on the towny side of things. So again... lamely, I have no case here over the others mentioned.

[Swowl]

Also, super off topic side note - I think it is skummy of everyone that pushed for the Neighbors to claim. Based on VCA I wanted to lynch one of the here mentioned 3 players, but after reading, possibly looking into the pro-claim group may be a better option.

[Swowl]

Vote: MCMC

Until someone else brings something more interesting up, it is that for me with the possibility of Joth (for Hood Claim push), SS for the same, and Pubby for a totally aside reason ... PPS gets added to that list pretty soon for the same reason as MCMC, but I am to believe they have been traveling, so IRL pass for now.

[MiX]

I feel like Swan's Glooble post is really solid, untill he starts saying things are towny for no reason. Pointing that lurkers are scum is a great pretext to scumread pubby, pushing for wagons is easy if they're both on town (which I suspect they were) and then you give a gut townread for his EoD which for me doesn't excuse the rest.

On the other hand Swan's spot on about his take on me, except you've played with scum!me as town.

Who else will join me on the Glooble wagon? Come on, Swan made an amazing case, how can you turn away from it?

[Glooble]

My position on lying as town is well documented and consistent with every game of played. I don't do it and I'm suspicious of anyone who does. I know there are situations where it seems appealing in order to catch scum in a lie, but I think its very seldom if ever worth undermining the trust of town.

[Glooble]

And yes, DatSwan, I did not read the entire scum QT. I stopped when I found what looked like a blatant contradiction. I didn't think anything after night 0 would be relevant to my point anyway.

[mcmcsalot]

Rereading now

[jotheonah]

If MiX is traitor and scum knows traitor, that would explain why a MiX wagon is having so much trouble gaining traction...

[MiX]

If MiX is traitor and scum knows traitor, that would explain why a MiX wagon is having so much trouble gaining traction...

Scum knows traitor? Sweet, I'm the best traitor ever!

[EFHW]

I disagree that worry about PR's is good reason not to have the neighborhood claim. We already lost the vanilla cop. Bodyguard, bodyguard's target, and PGO are good to target, assuming PGO picks the right night. Add to that PGO is possibly negative utility and 1 shot watcher is really weak. Even night tracker is ok, not great.

[EFHW]

Roleblocker might be useful.

[gkrieg13]

If MiX is traitor and scum knows traitor, that would explain why a MiX wagon is having so much trouble gaining traction...

I don't think mafia can know traitor in this setup?

[2.71828.....]

If MiX is traitor and scum knows traitor, that would explain why a MiX wagon is having so much trouble gaining traction...

I don't think mafia can know traitor in this setup?

Yeah, seems to be trying real hard for that town slip.

Vote: joth

[2.71828.....]

But I do need to do a thorough reread, and now I have some good confirmation bias to read with

[2.71828.....]

All joking aside, anyone have something they think I should pay closer attention to as I reread?

[gkrieg13]

I think Datswan is town.

vote: joth

[gkrieg13]

Would still be fine with pubby, but don't really want to lynch MiX.

[jotheonah]

Y’all remember I’m VLA all weekend right? Try not to lynch me while I’m gone.

I mixed up mafia knows traitor with traitor knows mafia. Sorry. Weird thing to vote me over but ok.

[mcmcsalot]

Gkrieg, ask, swan are all town

Super odd suspicions of efhw and e

I find glooble and joth scummy.


MiX I’m having a hard time readin, I have town read him a bunch and am kinda defaulting that way.

[mcmcsalot]

That’s my help, also I’m town. Also I’m playing like hot garbage this game.

I feel like people who were starting the pubby wagon d1 are scummy since my vote was just hanging out on him as I decided to skip the second half of the day.

[EFHW]

Ok, I'm home for the day and I've decided to claim. I am in the neighborhood. No one has taken issue with my PR argument and there's no other reason to withhold this information from town. There are three of us. I'll hold off on saying who, or they can.

[Swowl]

Ok, I'm home for the day and I've decided to claim. I am in the neighborhood. No one has taken issue with my PR argument and there's no other reason to withhold this information from town. There are three of us. I'll hold off on saying who, or they can.

So now skum knows not to shoot you and we still don’t know if you are town or skum.
Why would you do this right now? What upside do you expect from this claim?

[MiX]

Ok, I'm home for the day and I've decided to claim. I am in the neighborhood. No one has taken issue with my PR argument and there's no other reason to withhold this information from town. There are three of us. I'll hold off on saying who, or they can.

I thought you realized Roleblocker was good enough to not claim Neighbor...

Ok, well, who did you kill?

[Swowl]

I wonder if e is a neighbor and prompted the kill on eddie.

? Why?

I'm trying to guess which player was scum-killed and which player was neighborhood-killed. I think ADK came off more towny yesterday, and Eddie came off more scummy, so maybe scum killed ADK and neighbors killed Eddie. And the player most likely to have a bone to pick with Eddie is e.

Don't think this matters much at all though

EFHW - since you went ahead and claimed... you wanna confirm whether this is accurate or not? I can't see a downside in you sharing now that you have claimed.

[pingpongsam]

I’ll be the first to admit I don’t know why it’s good or bad to neighbor claim but when that was a big topic it sure seemed like general consensus someone should do it and do it like EFHW just did it. Thus I am thoroughly confused at the immediate negative reaction to her doing it.

[silverspawn]

I reread the game. Most of it. Isn't that virtuous?

Notes

How does anyone ever find scum? You guys are too level headed to reveal stuff. Maybe they don't and it's all random.

Can someone tell me what DatSwan's scum tells are?

I'm not the authority on MiX since I didn't catch the recent games with them, but nonetheless, insofar as I do have a gut read it's town leaning. Let's do something else rather than defaulting into a MiX lynch.

ADK is rolling. I'm old-fahsioned and usually walk.

e is also towny

joth is funny

joth is scummy. vote: joth

vote: joth

Interesting, maybe ADK agrees? ADK, can you explain why you made that vote at that point, if you still remember? Edit: nvm you died n1.

My reads early into this game were garbage. Not very suprising.

gkrieg is towny

ash is also towny. Actually I'm not feeling that hopeless about this game anymore. Maybe we can do better than random.

Eddie is also towny. And also dead.

I want to mod something. something suddenly gave me an idea for a new mechanic that would be cool and I want a game with GPT-2 generated flavor.

Today joth seems towny. Game is hard again. Here goes my (un) unvote

Ok MiX is super town right now. Whomever we lynch, it shouldn't be them.

[silverspawn]

Ok, I'm home for the day and I've decided to claim. I am in the neighborhood. No one has taken issue with my PR argument and there's no other reason to withhold this information from town. There are three of us. I'll hold off on saying who, or they can.

I fully support your decision to come out. f.ds is a tolerant bunch. We can accept you for who you are.

[silverspawn]

I think we should be treating survivor as town because otherwise there aren't enough town. let's be practical. So we can assume the neighborhood has one scum + rest town.

I think I want a full neighborhood claim for PoE. Better try to get the scum out of the group killed quickly so that we have some utility from the ICs.

Like, the PR stuff is super weaksauce. Look at the list. Vanilla cop? Already dead. Roleblocker? I'll give you that one. Bodyguard? I mean who cares. Even-Night Tracker? I'll give you that one, too. 1-shot Watcher? probably already used their shot. 1-shot Active Paranoid Gun Owner? Go ahead and target them, scum. In fact this one is a reason not to be worried.

In total there are 2 PRs that might be dangerous. Odds are neither of them actually exists in the game. Then there's a role that makes targeting PRs worse for scum. And then there's the fact that neighbors are also viable targets once we lynch the scum neighbor.

[silverspawn]

I'm surprised at people's thinking on third party choices.  If you want to win (regardless of fun), you don't go it alone.  SK/Survivor is hard.

You have to choose to join the mafia, making a 5-player team.  Even unknown, that's just a huge boon and a difficult situation for town.  I mean, maybe you could go survivor and claim?  If Neighbors stay hidden, Mafia have to decide whether to shoot you to kill neighbors or not.  But just being a traitor seems like the best move.

Again, that is if you choose based on wanting to win.  If you choose for fun or personal preference, there's no real rhyme or reason that matters.

Ugh... ash, did you by chance actually pick that role?

[silverspawn]

As in, I don't think what you said makes you townier, but I think you're less scum.

noooo this makes no sense 

One thing I've noticed this town in particular loves doing is saying "I think this person is scum" and then not laying down any kind of a case to back that up. We had pubby and joth, Eddie and e, and now MiX and me.

Making cases is so hard. and it feels more like work than just figuring out what you think. although it does help you figuring out whether what you think makes sense

[silverspawn]

vote: mcmc because my only scum read had the indecency of being towny today

[silverspawn]

I'll look into DatSwan and their posts separately, since there's actually quite a bit there and that deserves more attention than I had left right now. Maybe later today.

[EFHW]

Ok, I'm home for the day and I've decided to claim. I am in the neighborhood. No one has taken issue with my PR argument and there's no other reason to withhold this information from town. There are three of us. I'll hold off on saying who, or they can.

So now skum knows not to shoot you and we still don’t know if you are town or skum.
Why would you do this right now? What upside do you expect from this claim?

[EFHW]

Postfail. @DatSwan  I did it in large part because you didn't want me to.

[EFHW]

Ok, I'm home for the day and I've decided to claim. I am in the neighborhood. No one has taken issue with my PR argument and there's no other reason to withhold this information from town. There are three of us. I'll hold off on saying who, or they can.

I thought you realized Roleblocker was good enough to not claim Neighbor...

Ok, well, who did you kill?

Eddie

[MiX]

Ss went through the same joth crisis as me and I think scum!ss wouldn't bother with it. So he's super town. Mcmc's the scummiest man alive which means he's probably the next mislynch. Ash is not the traitor because I am (given that thinking that traitor's the best third-party makes you traitor, right?).

Swan's scumtell is having fun with the setup. Swan's real scumtell is pushing really really bad cases.

Ok, I'm home for the day and I've decided to claim. I am in the neighborhood. No one has taken issue with my PR argument and there's no other reason to withhold this information from town. There are three of us. I'll hold off on saying who, or they can.

I thought you realized Roleblocker was good enough to not claim Neighbor...

Ok, well, who did you kill?

Eddie

I am not neighbor because I need to ask you if you agreed with that. Also obviously being wrong means I wasn't Neighbor anyway.

[EFHW]

@MiX, what is your question? We had a consensus on the vig.

[MiX]

@MiX, what is your question? We had a consensus on the vig.

That answers it. Did you propose that idea or had it in mind before N1?

[EFHW]

@MiX, what is your question? We had a consensus on the vig.

That answers it. Did you propose that idea or had it in mind before N1?

Bit of a longer story.  I'll type it up when I am at a computer.

Did you just claim traitor?

[MiX]

@MiX, what is your question? We had a consensus on the vig.

That answers it. Did you propose that idea or had it in mind before N1?

Bit of a longer story.  I'll type it up when I am at a computer.

Did you just claim traitor?

Looking forward to it!

I claimed it as much as ash did, which is not at all.

[silverspawn]

I feel partially responsible for making too many jokes during my reread. But that shouldn't give you allowance to also make jokes.

[MiX]

I feel partially responsible for making too many jokes during my reread. But that shouldn't give you allowance to also make jokes.

But I liked your jokes, it made you look even townier!

What do you think of Glooble? Between him, mcmc and maybe joth (with a slightly "e is scum neighbor" story that explains why no one wants him dead) right now.

[pubby]

Does anyone else find PPS+Ashersky super suspicious?

[silverspawn]

Nothing I've seen in the reread was a strong reason to think they're town. Also, nothing I've seen in the reread was a strong reason to think they're scum.

But most other people are town so they're a reasonable choice.

Does anyone else find PPS+Ashersky super suspicious?

I don't. What's suspicious about them?

[pubby]

I don't like how Ash didn't vote yesterday. He was in the thread only a few hours before the deadline, saying we should lynch instead of no-lynch, but he didn't vote? Not even for the people he scum-reads? That's a red flag to me.

My suspicious towards PPS is weaker but I don't like how quiet/insignificant he's been. Like you, I agree he doesn't come off as scum or town yet.

I guess it's worth noting that Ash reads PPS as town. (why??)

[ashersky]

I'm surprised at people's thinking on third party choices.  If you want to win (regardless of fun), you don't go it alone.  SK/Survivor is hard.

You have to choose to join the mafia, making a 5-player team.  Even unknown, that's just a huge boon and a difficult situation for town.  I mean, maybe you could go survivor and claim?  If Neighbors stay hidden, Mafia have to decide whether to shoot you to kill neighbors or not.  But just being a traitor seems like the best move.

Again, that is if you choose based on wanting to win.  If you choose for fun or personal preference, there's no real rhyme or reason that matters.

Ugh... ash, did you by chance actually pick that role?

I was not given that choice, sadly. Or for the best?  I think MiX could be a/the traitor. Straight up joke claiming seems like a good way to signal.

[ashersky]

Yes, why is it worth noting?

[ashersky]

unvote

[pubby]

Ash, last game you were the one who hammered me as the first lynch of the game. You were town.

This game you could have hammered me, but you didn't. Immediately after you said:

Six or so hours left?  Hammer is better than no lynch.

WHEN YOU COULD HAVE HAMMERED ME.

Vote: Ash

[pubby]

My bad there.  I came to the forum four minutes after deadline.

BTW this is dumb nitpicking but what an oddly specific number. Did you really read the timestamp of the mod post and say, "Hmm... I arrived 4 minutes after this was posted. I'm going to make a mental note."

[MiX]

Ash, last game you were the one who hammered me as the first lynch of the game. You were town.

This game you could have hammered me, but you didn't. Immediately after you said:

Six or so hours left?  Hammer is better than no lynch.

WHEN YOU COULD HAVE HAMMERED ME.

Vote: Ash

So you want to die? Last time ash was scum he hammered twice so I don't think it's a tell for him. I think he just likes hammering.

I'm surprised at people's thinking on third party choices.  If you want to win (regardless of fun), you don't go it alone.  SK/Survivor is hard.

You have to choose to join the mafia, making a 5-player team.  Even unknown, that's just a huge boon and a difficult situation for town.  I mean, maybe you could go survivor and claim?  If Neighbors stay hidden, Mafia have to decide whether to shoot you to kill neighbors or not.  But just being a traitor seems like the best move.

Again, that is if you choose based on wanting to win.  If you choose for fun or personal preference, there's no real rhyme or reason that matters.

Ugh... ash, did you by chance actually pick that role?

I was not given that choice, sadly. Or for the best?  I think MiX could be a/the traitor. Straight up joke claiming seems like a good way to signal.

Good, now scum thinks I'm traitor which means I live another day. Or at least they don't know who the real traitor is, which means they can't protect them. But seriously I don't think there's a way for third-party traitor to signal.

[ashersky]

My bad there.  I came to the forum four minutes after deadline.

BTW this is dumb nitpicking but what an oddly specific number. Did you really read the timestamp of the mod post and say, "Hmm... I arrived 4 minutes after this was posted. I'm going to make a mental note."

I looked at forum time at the top of the page. It said 10:04. I made a note in my personal QT about it, too. You can see it after the game and check the time stamp there, too.

[ashersky]

Ash, last game you were the one who hammered me as the first lynch of the game. You were town.

This game you could have hammered me, but you didn't. Immediately after you said:

Six or so hours left?  Hammer is better than no lynch.

WHEN YOU COULD HAVE HAMMERED ME.

Vote: Ash

Pretty sure the vote count was wrong so I couldn’t hammer you.  Or something like that. I remember thinking about it and being disappointed.

[ashersky]

As for me and hammers in general, I’ll let literally everyone else ever answer.

[EFHW]

@MiX, what is your question? We had a consensus on the vig.

That answers it. Did you propose that idea or had it in mind before N1?

I started with Glooble and joth. One person was hesitant about Glooble and suggested MiX. I didn't want MiX and brought up Eddie. There was consensus from there. The third neighbor didn't suggest or object to anyone. The ease of the consensus made me worry that Eddie was town, but I decided that a scum neighbor could be uncomfortable objecting to a partner. I also couldn't change the target on my own and didn't know the motivations of the non-scum neighbor.

Both felt strongly that we shouldn't claim. I didn't say anything one way or the other.

The way things happened made me concerned that there was indeed scum in the neighborhood and that is why I claimed.

[MiX]

@MiX, what is your question? We had a consensus on the vig.

That answers it. Did you propose that idea or had it in mind before N1?

The third neighbor didn't suggest or object to anyone.

Was Awaclus there? Is that the big twist in this game? Oh well, thank you for your explanation.

Still feel like doing Glooble?

[EFHW]

I'm not saying names yet because I want to hear from town about whether they think scum was there.

I had a really great theory that didn't pan out. I thought if there was a survivor in the neighborhood they could claim and if there was scum, too, they would claim. The two of them would vig me and then survivor would ally with mafia.

[Glooble]

I'm not saying names yet because I want to hear from town about whether they think scum was there.

I had a really great theory that didn't pan out. I thought if there was a survivor in the neighborhood they could claim and if there was scum, too, they would claim. The two of them would vig me and then survivor would ally with mafia.

I am having a ton of trouble parsing this second paragraph, EFHW.

[EFHW]

I'm not saying names yet because I want to hear from town about whether they think scum was there.

I had a really great theory that didn't pan out. I thought if there was a survivor in the neighborhood they could claim and if there was scum, too, they would claim. The two of them would vig me and then survivor would ally with mafia.

Imagine me as town, the second neighbor as scum, and the third neighbor as survivor.

I am having a ton of trouble parsing this second paragraph, EFHW.

[Glooble]

Ok I think I get it. I was like “why would scum claim?” But I didn’t realize you meant within the neighborhood.

[pingpongsam]

Unvote

The whole traitor thing leaves a pretty towny impression on MiX. I think I am going to get a solid chance to reread and post up tomorrow since I can play the father’s day leave me alone for a while card.

[Swowl]

I'm not saying names yet because I want to hear from town about whether they think scum was there.

I had a really great theory that didn't pan out. I thought if there was a survivor in the neighborhood they could claim and if there was scum, too, they would claim. The two of them would vig me and then survivor would ally with mafia.

Dudet I am having so much issue with this line of reasoning, please correct me if I am misinterpreting anything:

1) Your plan is based on assuming your 3 person hood consists of 1 Skum, 1 Survivor, and yourself. You said some stuff went down that made you suspicious of skum... ok cool, fair enough. But how do you justify the leap from "it is me plus 2 others, and I am getting skummy vibes" to "there is exactly 1 skum, 1 survivor, and me and the survivor is gonna claim first followed by skum and then I solve the game"?

2) No one claimed, you were the first. So you were getting skummy vibes and basing the assumption behind it on the concept of skum/survivor claiming. Then no one claimed. So... where as I wanna say "that means you must think you have town people in your hood now", you claim kind of contradicts that.


Maybe I am just fucking up my interpretation - but can you explain to me what the  anticipated upside for Town is based on your claim?

[EFHW]

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

[faust]

Vote Count 2.3

jotheonah (2): 2.71828....., gkrieg13
MiX (1): jotheonah
mcmcsalot (2): DatSwan, silverspawn
Glooble (1): MiX
ashersky (1): pubby

Not Voting (5): Glooble, mcmcsalot, EFHW, ashersky, pingpongsam

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on June 19, 2019, 10:10:00 am.

[MiX]

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

The sooner you out them, the faster we can start considering them.

Joth's one of them, and I suspect the other's pubby? Maaaaaybe ss/pps. So if I can figure this out surely scum can, I don't see why you would scumread them and not out them.

[Glooble]

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

The sooner you out them, the faster we can start considering them.

Joth's one of them, and I suspect the other's pubby? Maaaaaybe ss/pps. So if I can figure this out surely scum can, I don't see why you would scumread them and not out them.

Joth wanted to vig... himself?

[MiX]

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

The sooner you out them, the faster we can start considering them.

Joth's one of them, and I suspect the other's pubby? Maaaaaybe ss/pps. So if I can figure this out surely scum can, I don't see why you would scumread them and not out them.

Joth wanted to vig... himself?

I suppose EFHW wouldn't suggest someone in it, but the way she said the second person didn't want Glooble and said nothing about joth seems like it would be joth. Just wild guessing, which is something scum can do better knowing 4 people that cannot be in the neighborhood. Regardless, scumreading neighbors is pointless if they aren't revealed.

[EFHW]

The one I'm scumreading is DatSwan.  I'm being cautious because I have been mistakenly scumreading him for a few games now.

[EFHW]

He's the 9ne who didn't suggest or object to anyone  and who was the strongest against claiming.

The other one was ashersky,  who was also against claiming.

[EFHW]

ashersky not coming forward after I claimed and after the pr argument was negated without protest makes me think he doesn't want it known that he is in the neighborhood,  either.

[EFHW]

*without protest from the rest of town

[MiX]

So it's EFHW/ash/Swan... most likely they're 3 town, since I don't think any of them would pick survivor. Of these 3...yes, I suppose Swan's the scummiest, but I would sooner lynch EFHW...which revealed this information at my request. I think we just outed 3 town. Thank you EFHW.

I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.

[EFHW]

If Datswan was the scummiest, why would you rather lynch me?

I'm really surprised by your reaction.  Usually you would take more time to go through each possibility.

[EFHW]

I agree that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.  But I think people in this group would find the idea appealing. 

[MiX]

If Datswan was the scummiest, why would you rather lynch me?

I'm really surprised by your reaction.  Usually you would take more time to go through each possibility.

Ash said he wouldn't pick survivor (I completely trust him on that), you revealed the neighborhood (which is pointless for a survivor, since you determined why survivor isn't in the same neighborhood as scum with your crazy theory) and I doubt Swan's survivor for meta reasons, although I suppose he could be. So if you're either scum or town, I think you're all town because that's what I thought before you revealed.

Swan's "scummiest" because everyone has been scumreading them, which means scum!EFHW would love to give another reason to scumread him. But really I think you're all town.

Does anyone know a good scum!Glooble game? Because he hasn't gotten scum ever since he came back and I'm having a hard time metareading him.

[Glooble]

I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.

I’m ready to vote: MiX finally. He’s admitting he doesn’t actually have a case on me - if he had one, he wouldn’t need to “get” one.

Town wants to find scum. Scum wants to “get a case” on whatever player they’ve decided is today’s easy mislynch.

[MiX]

I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.

I’m ready to vote: MiX finally. He’s admitting he doesn’t actually have a case on me - if he had one, he wouldn’t need to “get” one.

Town wants to find scum. Scum wants to “get a case” on whatever player they’ve decided is today’s easy mislynch.

Scum would've had a case a while ago...but fine, tell me how I can make a case without knowing how you act when you're scum. Everything I could point out as inconsistencies (scumreading Swan for no reason, going back to the other game to scumread Swan some more, saying ADK's also scum because he's lying even though scum's the least likely one to lie...hmm...I actually forgot about everything you did this game that was scummy, should've written it down) you can easily say you're playing differently or you can point at a town game where you do that.

The "easy mislynch" today's...oh yeah it's you. Unless enough people go for Swan(?) or something. Nevermind it's mcmc. So why am I wasting time with you?

[silverspawn]

So it's EFHW/ash/Swan... most likely they're 3 town, since I don't think any of them would pick survivor. Of these 3...yes, I suppose Swan's the scummiest, but I would sooner lynch EFHW...which revealed this information at my request. I think we just outed 3 town. Thank you EFHW.

I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.

what? forget the survivor. One of them can be MAFIA.

[MiX]

So it's EFHW/ash/Swan... most likely they're 3 town, since I don't think any of them would pick survivor. Of these 3...yes, I suppose Swan's the scummiest, but I would sooner lynch EFHW...which revealed this information at my request. I think we just outed 3 town. Thank you EFHW.

I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.

what? forget the survivor. One of them can be MAFIA.

Fine, but I'm also townreading all of them. I don't think any of them are scum.

[ashersky]

ashersky not coming forward after I claimed and after the pr argument was negated without protest makes me think he doesn't want it known that he is in the neighborhood,  either.

Well, no, I didn’t. I didn’t want it known you were in it either.  At this point, town neighbors’ best role is to draw NKs away from remaining town PRs. Now, I can’t, and since I was townreading you, you can’t either. I think your claim was a mistake, but a town-reasoning-driven one.

I also noted Datswan didn’t suggest any targets. I was enjoying watching their posts as if they weren’t neighbor and I wondered where it would go.

[silverspawn]

Short probabilities post. Let's assume no 3d party neighbor. What is the probability p of having two additional town members? It depends on how many PRs scum picked. If it's ...

... 4, then p = 28.6%  (6 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 3, then p = 14.3%  (3 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 2, then p = 04.8%  (1 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 1, then p = 00.0%

[silverspawn]

We could verify this via massclaim. That would give us additional information about how many PRs there are. But I don't think there's a world in which I don't want to lynch out of the neighborhood. Probably ash or DatSwan. Probably DatSwan.

[silverspawn]

I would suspect that scum probably did choose 4 PRs, because if you're going to make one of your scum buddies a neighbor, then you want a lot of town neighbors. In that world, there are 4 roles chosen and one of them is a neighbor. The probbiality of that is 57.1%. The most likely case. This sounds like a reasonable guess.

[silverspawn]

I think I want a (partial) massclaim regardless, however. If we can pin down how many PRs there are, then we get another group where we know how much scum is among them. For example, if we get 5 claims, one of them is guaranteed scum.

I suggest we have everyone claim PR and non-PR. I think this will be more helpful for town than for scum. Remember that town could have a PGO, so scum can't safely NK anyone.

[MiX]

Short probabilities post. Let's assume no 3d party neighbor. What is the probability p of having two additional town members? It depends on how many PRs scum picked. If it's ...

... 4, then p = 28.6%  (6 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 3, then p = 14.3%  (3 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 2, then p = 04.8%  (1 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 1, then p = 00.0%

Did you factor the fact that third-party removes one of the roles and/or third-party's most likely traitor so there's 1 more PR?

We could verify this via massclaim. That would give us additional information about how many PRs there are. But I don't think there's a world in which I don't want to lynch out of the neighborhood. Probably ash or DatSwan. Probably DatSwan.

If we do this, I sugest a mere "I am PR" or "I am not PR" given there's a bunch that don't mind dying.

I would suspect that scum probably did choose 4 PRs, because if you're going to make one of your scum buddies a neighbor, then you want a lot of town neighbors. In that world, there are 4 roles chosen and one of them is a neighbor. The probbiality of that is 57.1%. The most likely case. This sounds like a reasonable guess.

I wouldn't pick 4 powers, sounds overkill and I don't think there's those many good powers. But I can see why increasing the chances of neighbors is good if you choose to be scum neighbor.

PPE: Oh look what i just said

[silverspawn]

Did you factor the fact that third-party removes one of the roles and/or third-party's most likely traitor so there's 1 more PR?

I did not. It always gets more complicated  Hold on.

[Glooble]

I guess I see the benefit of a mass PR/ not PR claim, and the possibility of the PGO certainly helps, but don’t forget it’s a 1-shot active PGO. So it probably only protects the other roles for one night. And don’t forget scum could fake claim and mess up our numbers.

[silverspawn]

Disregard the first post. I had forgotten about the extra modifications. That means we need to differentiate between the different picks of the third party member, and then between how many PRs scum picked. But it's still very doable.

Third Party Picked Traitor (+1 PR)
4 scum PRs -> p = 47.6%  (10 * 2/7 * 1/6)
3 scum PRs -> p = 28.6%  (6 * 2/7 * 1/6)
2 scum PRs -> p = 14.3%  (3 * 2/7 * 1/6)
1 scum PRs -> p = 04.8%  (1 * 2/7 * 1/6)

Third Party Picked SK or Reporter (-1 possible town role)
4 scum PRs -> p = 40.0%  (6 * 2/6 * 1/5)
3 scum PRs -> p = 20.0%  (3 * 2/6 * 1/5)
2 scum PRs -> p = 06.7%  (1 * 2/6 * 1/5)
1 scum PRs -> p = 00.0%

[silverspawn]

Reasonably certain these are correct. Anyone want to verify?

Unfortunately, this makes the case less strong and I'm now no longer certain I want to lynch between ash and DatSwan. Probably still like a PR / non PR claim.

[silverspawn]

I guess I see the benefit of a mass PR/ not PR claim, and the possibility of the PGO certainly helps, but don’t forget it’s a 1-shot active PGO. So it probably only protects the other roles for one night. And don’t forget scum could fake claim and mess up our numbers.

Yeah, there'll probably do that. It's still very useful. I don't want to talk too much about what scum can and can't do, though...

[jotheonah]

So it's EFHW/ash/Swan... most likely they're 3 town, since I don't think any of them would pick survivor. Of these 3...yes, I suppose Swan's the scummiest, but I would sooner lynch EFHW...which revealed this information at my request. I think we just outed 3 town. Thank you EFHW.

I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.

This is a scummy reaction to EFHW’s claim and reveal. Once again, MiX is trying to proactively derail a town plan that might put his partners. Who jumps to “they’re obviously all town” like that? Like, that fast. He doesn’t even consider there’s scum there.

vote: MiX

[EFHW]

Short probabilities post. Let's assume no 3d party neighbor. What is the probability p of having two additional town members? It depends on how many PRs scum picked. If it's ...

... 4, then p = 28.6%  (6 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 3, then p = 14.3%  (3 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 2, then p = 04.8%  (1 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 1, then p = 00.0%

What do each of the 3 numbers being multiplied represent?

[MiX]

So it's EFHW/ash/Swan... most likely they're 3 town, since I don't think any of them would pick survivor. Of these 3...yes, I suppose Swan's the scummiest, but I would sooner lynch EFHW...which revealed this information at my request. I think we just outed 3 town. Thank you EFHW.

I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.

This is a scummy reaction to EFHW’s claim and reveal. Once again, MiX is trying to proactively derail a town plan that might put his partners. Who jumps to “they’re obviously all town” like that? Like, that fast. He doesn’t even consider there’s scum there.

vote: MiX

I'm waiting for scum to push one of them, ssshhhhh don't tell anyone.

On the other hand feel free to kill me, I built a very minor case for Glooble based solely on his Swan interaction which is probably really weak but I can't see anything better. I'll post it when it's complete.

[MiX]

Once again, MiX is trying to proactively derail a town plan that might put his partners.

What do you mean by "once again"? I pushed for the claim and everything!

[silverspawn]

What do each of the 3 numbers being multiplied represent?

The way you compute the percentage, in case anyone wanted to check.

[EFHW]

Is this wrong?

Probability of 3 town neighbors with 4 scum modifications and 7 possible town prs= (chance of no scum pr being neighbor) × (2/7 + 2/6 + 2/5) × 1/4.

Chance of scum not picking neighbor in 4 choices, if it were random = 1 - (0 + 1/7 + 1/6 + 1/5). The 0 is because they can't pick 4 modifications that are prs.

[EFHW]

Or just prob. of 3 town neighbors with 4 mods = (2/7 + 2/6 + 2/5) × 1/4 = 25%.

My question was about how you chose those numbers to be in the equation with those relationships, not what the equation was for.

I promise to do at most only one more post about math.

[silverspawn]

I don't get how you're getting your numbers. Explain?

Here's how I did it. We draw 4 times from a pool of 7 roles. To hit 2 neighbors, we have to hit neighbor twice and non-neighbor twice. The chance to hit the first neighbor is 2/7, because they are two. the chance to hit the second is 1/6. The chance to hit non-neighbors is then 5/5 and 4/4, i.e. guaranteed. So the probability for neighbor-neighbor-notneighbor-notneighbor is 2/7 * 1/6 * 5/5 * 4/4 or just 2/7 * 1/6. Now there are 6 possible ways to order the two neighbors and the two non-neighbors, so we multiply the thing with 6. (That's n choose k with n = 4 and k = 2.) That's the first probability in my first post. Everything else works with the same principle, just different numbers.

[silverspawn]

My question was about how you chose those numbers to be in the equation with those relationships, not what the equation was for.

That makes sense, I hope the previous post answers that.

[EFHW]

2/7×1/6 is for the combination with lowest prob of picking neighbor twice. The max is 5/5 × 4/4 × 2/5 × 1/4, right? Multiplying the lowest x 6 seems somewhat underestimating, but thank you for explaining.

[silverspawn]

No, they're actually all equally likely. if you pick notneighbor-notneighbor-neighbor-neighbor, you get 5/7 * 4/6 * 2/5 * 1/4. That's the same numbers in the nominator and denominator as 2/7 * 1/6 * 5/5 * 4/4, just in a different order. The result should be exact.

Whatever you draw first is out of 7, so the denominator has to be 7.

[EFHW]

No, they're actually all equally likely. if you pick notneighbor-notneighbor-neighbor-neighbor, you get 5/7 * 4/6 * 2/5 * 1/4. That's the same numbers in the nominator and denominator as 2/7 * 1/6 * 5/5 * 4/4, just in a different order. The result should be exact.

Whatever you draw first is out of 7, so the denominator has to be 7.

ok, neat. Sorry for the distraction.

[silverspawn]

Ok, I think we should figure out who is in favor or VT / non-VT claim.

*raises hand*

Mix and Glooble have already kind of agreed to it, but obv you can withdraw that if you change your mind.

[silverspawn]

The main benefit is that we create buckets with a certain number of scum in and outside. These buckets are super neat because they narrow down the lynch pool and can lead to the creation of a bunch of ICs. The drawback is that scum can target PRs but this is mitigated by the one-shot PGO.

[pingpongsam]

Am I parsing the setup correctly that Mafia has to have selected a minimum of 1 modifications in order for there to be 3 neighbors in the neighborhood? That would require one modification to be converting a goon to neighbor and the corresponding town upgrade being neighbor.

I am just now getting the probability discussion because I was weighing how likely it was that Mafia picked only 2 modifications but the result was 2 town neighbors in addition to the original town neighbor. I was wavering that in order for the neighborhood to be all town mafia picked potentially 4 (with a weight towards the higher end of modifications) modifications and none was neighbor goon.

I guess, in short, it seems if there is a strong likelihood of a neighbor goon then lynching a neighbor is a decent option and a fantastic limit for reread analysis.

[silverspawn]

Am I parsing the setup correctly that Mafia has to have selected a minimum of 1 modifications in order for there to be 3 neighbors in the neighborhood?

Ye.

That would require one modification to be converting a goon to neighbor and the corresponding town upgrade being neighbor.

Yeah. But this is very unlikely.

I am just now getting the probability discussion because I was weighing how likely it was that Mafia picked only 2 modifications but the result was 2 town neighbors in addition to the original town neighbor. I was wavering that in order for the neighborhood to be all town mafia picked potentially 4 (with a weight towards the higher end of modifications) modifications and none was neighbor goon.

Yeah, exactly. THat's the scenario where the 3 towns scenario has a prior probability of 47.6%, which is high enough to be somewhat plausible.

What's your take on the VT/non-VT claim?

[pingpongsam]

What's your take on the VT/non-VT claim?

I’m not opposed. I can’t really grasp the utility of it with no revealed scum to date because they should be able to manipulate the information to make it sufficiently useless today but I think it becomes increasingly useful as scum begin to flip.

[EFHW]

Reasonably certain these are correct. Anyone want to verify?

Unfortunately, this makes the case less strong and I'm now no longer certain I want to lynch between ash and DatSwan. Probably still like a PR / non PR claim.

ash and DatSwan said they didn't want to claim because it narrows down who has prs. They have been quite definite about that. You have the opposite plan, which is to completely reveal who has prs. But you don't find them scummy for basing such strong resistance on an argument you feel is unimportant?

[silverspawn]

In short, no. I don't actually think the PR thing is unimportant. I think the benefits of claims outweigh the downsides, but not by so much that it's hard for me to believe that someone could come to the opposite conclusion.

[MiX]

Ok, I think we should figure out who is in favor or VT / non-VT claim.

*raises hand*

Mix and Glooble have already kind of agreed to it, but obv you can withdraw that if you change your mind.

It's okay, but I think scum can heavily manipulate it. I think it only helps if we get a counterclaim eventually, which is harder to get if we claim.

Also, your probabilities look alright enough, and they certainly point to a high chance of scum!neighbor. But if we're lynching there...I think I want to lynch EFHW. Which is sad because I was just trying to not nullread them...but they're the scummiest of the 3.

I didn't get to look further into Glooble, by the way, I'll try to do it today but don't expect anything, I'm somewhat tired.

[silverspawn]

EFHW? No way. Is that just based on day 1?

[MiX]

EFHW? No way. Is that just based on day 1?

It's based on my bigger townreads on ash and Swan. I would probably lynch Swan instead given everyone else's reads, but I don't think it's implausible for scum!EFHW to do this. Then again, I haven't played with such, only read past games, and what I remember is that she was good at it, so maybe I'm just scared.

[silverspawn]

How confident are in your ash read, and how experience do you have playing with him that you base this on?

[ashersky]

Didn’t your probabilities post tell scum how many PRs they should fake claim?

Is there a way to hide the useful PRs in this plan of yours?  Like, if you are a PGO, don’t claim?  To me, nullifying the usefulness of any (or all, depending) PRs is not worth an easily manipulated claim scheme that doesn’t help me narrow down much of anything, considering I have my reads and the PR probabilities don’t change them.

If I’m incorrect, correct me. But if there’s some magic number of claims that renders your plan useless, I assume scum can figure it out. Heck, if SS is scum, he already did and had this plan hatched from the beginning to pull off an epic scum rolefish. (Which, if true, bravo for the audacity and glory.)

[silverspawn]

if we only claim non-VT, then scum doesn't know who the useful PRs are, and if they kill a PR at random, they risk dying.

But if there’s some magic number of claims that renders your plan useless, I assume scum can figure it out.

Yeah, but there isn't. There's some behavior that's optimal for scum, but nothing that will magically prevent all utility we can get from this.

I'm pretty sure massclaiming is the right play, if anything the question is whether we do it today or tomorrow.

[MiX]

Didn’t your probabilities post tell scum how many PRs they should fake claim?

Is there a way to hide the useful PRs in this plan of yours?  Like, if you are a PGO, don’t claim?  To me, nullifying the usefulness of any (or all, depending) PRs is not worth an easily manipulated claim scheme that doesn’t help me narrow down much of anything, considering I have my reads and the PR probabilities don’t change them.

If I’m incorrect, correct me. But if there’s some magic number of claims that renders your plan useless, I assume scum can figure it out. Heck, if SS is scum, he already did and had this plan hatched from the beginning to pull off an epic scum rolefish. (Which, if true, bravo for the audacity and glory.)

I don't think it requires a lot of thought to think that pushing a scum narrative with a lot of town PRs requires less town PR claims and vice versa. I don't think the probabilities did anything else for scum, it sure said how the odds of there being scum are higher than 50%, which is something I didn't think was true.

PGO should definitely claim, and I think even roleblocker should, but overall the plan's very flimsy. I'm fully against it now.

How confident are in your ash read, and how experience do you have playing with him that you base this on?

Not well enough, I think I only played one game with them as non-scum and they were scum? I thought "acting like ash" was towny, it turned out to be scummy. So now I think ash acting like ash is scummy. I don't remember seeing a lot (well, too much) of this in this game, so I think they're town. Besides, the plan talk sounds flat out risky as scum!ash, given they said the same thing when they were scum. Otherwise, no, I don't have much confidence in my read.

PPE: I can't see what information we gain, scum has so much freedom to claim anything they want.

[silverspawn]

What are you two talking about? The PGO should definitely not claim. They become useless if they claim. We want scum to not-know who is the PGO so that they either risk losing a member if they kill someone or don't even try.

[jotheonah]

What are you two talking about? The PGO should definitely not claim. They become useless if they claim. We want scum to not-know who is the PGO so that they either risk losing a member if they kill someone or don't even try.

I think they're saying "PGO should claim" as in "in a VT/non-VT claim, PGO should honestly claim not VT" not as in "PGO should full-claim"

[silverspawn]

ok, then yes. But every non-VT should claim non-VT. The massclaim becomes useless very quickly if we have PRs claiming VT. Pretty sure that's worse than not having any claim.

[ashersky]

Depending on scum numbers, they win just by killing VTs.  They just dodge all PRs, negating the utility of our only possible killing role. Depending on the number of PR claims, that could really lead us into ruin.

[ashersky]

Best case scenario we are 4 v 8, right? 

Mislynch + NK means 4 v 6, takes 4 to lynch. Traitor claims, lynch claimed PR. No kill, game over.

PRs are pretty key, whomever is left. Plan is bad.

[ashersky]

Survivor probably claims and joins scum and completely ensures the scum win, if they exist.

[ashersky]

What does third party claim in your plan if they are survivor?

[EFHW]

I don't see the benefit in the plan.

We're only hearing from half of town. Hopefully we'll hear from more people after the weekend.

[Swowl]

OK well that is a lot of relevant stuff since I last checked in... I am just going to respond to stuff as I go in this post...

He's the 9ne who didn't suggest or object to anyone  and who was the strongest against claiming.

The other one was ashersky,  who was also against claiming.

- I stand by my point about not claiming. I very much still believe you have made a mistake. Or your skum. But I am somehow still wanting to believe mistake.
- To further that, I laid out my reasoning in pretty damn detailed view in the QT. EFHW could of spoke up there. If they were suspicious of me, I see how they would not want to do that.

ashersky not coming forward after I claimed and after the pr argument was negated without protest makes me think he doesn't want it known that he is in the neighborhood,  either.

- The PR argument is negated because you claimed.
- I didn't want to be known either, you claimed for both of me and Ash. Why is it less likely he wanted to be known than me?

ashersky not coming forward after I claimed and after the pr argument was negated without protest makes me think he doesn't want it known that he is in the neighborhood,  either.

Well, no, I didn’t. I didn’t want it known you were in it either.  At this point, town neighbors’ best role is to draw NKs away from remaining town PRs. Now, I can’t, and since I was townreading you, you can’t either. I think your claim was a mistake, but a town-reasoning-driven one.

I also noted Datswan didn’t suggest any targets. I was enjoying watching their posts as if they weren’t neighbor and I wondered where it would go.

- Annoyingly agree with Ashes.
- In regards to me posting like I would in a private QT, please check any Skum, hood, or any form of shared QT I have had in the last year or so... I am very pro information sharing and when I have a shared thread I just pretty much use it instead of my private QT.
- Also, By the time I checked into the thread the people that had been brought up were Mix, Joth, Glooble. I responded to MiX because I knew how I felt at the time, and then by the time I had a chance to go and read Glooble and Joth... one of you brought up Eddie, who I was way more on board with than the other options presented. So, it is correct that I did not bring up anyone as a potential target, but to be fair, by the time I got a chance to respond you two had already elected like 40+% of the alive field that were not the 3 of us.

Short probabilities post. Let's assume no 3d party neighbor. What is the probability p of having two additional town members? It depends on how many PRs scum picked. If it's ...

... 4, then p = 28.6%  (6 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 3, then p = 14.3%  (3 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 2, then p = 04.8%  (1 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 1, then p = 00.0%

I suck at the maths. What is the probability of skum being there is a Survivor? * kept reading found the post you already have made with this math*

I would suspect that scum probably did choose 4 PRs, because if you're going to make one of your scum buddies a neighbor, then you want a lot of town neighbors. In that world, there are 4 roles chosen and one of them is a neighbor. The probbiality of that is 57.1%. The most likely case. This sounds like a reasonable guess.

- I agree that skum would choose 4 but for different reasons. From a skum pov I feel like the must have role is traitor knows mafia followed by skum PGO. That's 2 there. From there on out, they could come up with a ton of good combos which they would have to weight against the potential downside of the roles Town would get in return. This opens up a ton of options for roles that would not, by themselves, seem viable options. Example would be, Traitor Knows Skum + Skum PGO, then they decide to put Skum in the Hood.... VT cop is fantastic for them there. They are gonna be able to remove 2-3 players from the PR list just because of the Hood, then they get the lynches, kills, and VT checks. With a Hood of 3 players, they would start Day 2 with all town flips (which I assume anyone assumes of any faction to the start of Day 2), with 10 players alive - 3/10 are skum, 3/10 are Hood, 1/10 is either VT or not VT... Assuming they get a VT result, they would literally know exactly who all the Town PRs are start of Day 2. <-- That is kind of a specific example, but the point is that if you look at the roles, I do not think skum would be too worked about taking 4 roles because the potential combos they can put together likely would outweigh what Town gets in return.

I guess, in short, it seems if there is a strong likelihood of a neighbor goon then lynching a neighbor is a decent option and a fantastic limit for reread analysis.

- As I mentioned before, I agree with this concept. My current reads though having me doubting it's likelihood of being the case right now {i.e. it would mean EFHW is skum, which I am not sold on).
- Additionally, we could counter this potential play by using the negative. What are our potential play outs?

1) We lynch a Town!Hood Player - Skum kills outside the Hood N2 obv, most likely killing a Town player. Not to even factor in any potential of there being an extra Traitor or PGO/SK kills that may happen... that still starts us Day 3 with 4 Mafia Aligned, 1 Third Party, and 3 Town Aligned. Because 1/4 Mafia aligned would be Traitor, I am guessing the game would not just end... but that is like a super shitty situation. Then we move onto what... Pray there is Skum in the Hood and try there again, or take essentially the same odds on out of Hood Skum the next day?
2) We lynch a Skum!Hood Player - Obviously a huge upside. If there is skum, and we get them, we instantly get 2 ICs. 1 of the ICs will die at night, followed by the other... but that is a whole Day 3 with 1x IC and 2 Nights of kills from skum that leave Town PRs alive. *while that sounds awesome, it is also my priority case on why I do not think EFHW is Skum - that right there is a hell of a gamble for Skum to take at this point*
3) Alternatively, we could lynch outside of the Hood. Not saying we leave the Hood as ICs, Not saying we don't eventually come to think the Hood is IC's... we could just not look there for right now. There is a 33.33% chance of finding skum in the Hood (if skum is in the Hood). If there is Skum in the Hood, there is a 28.6% chance of finding skum outside of the Hood. However, if the Hood is all Town, there is a 42.8% chance of finding skum outside of the Hood and a 0% chance of finding Skum inside the Hood. Because we do not know which is true, I think we should look outside of the Hood for today's lynch.

Reasonably certain these are correct. Anyone want to verify?

Unfortunately, this makes the case less strong and I'm now no longer certain I want to lynch between ash and DatSwan. Probably still like a PR / non PR claim.

ash and DatSwan said they didn't want to claim because it narrows down who has prs. They have been quite definite about that. You have the opposite plan, which is to completely reveal who has prs. But you don't find them scummy for basing such strong resistance on an argument you feel is unimportant?

- Completely different. Or at least it is for me, I can't speak for Ash. I did not want it to be easier for skum to know who to select for kill targets based on the concept that there potentially is an all Town Hood. If there is an all Town Hood, you have told them who is in it. This limits their kill pool from 7 down to 4. Of those 4, 1 of them are traitor. Of the remaining 3, 1-3 of them are town PRs. You have created a situation where claiming VT vs not VT has a very small liklihood of actually hurting Town. Although, tbh, I don't really see a huge upside of it either.


PPE: A lot

[Swowl]

I don't see the benefit in the plan.

We're only hearing from half of town. Hopefully we'll hear from more people after the weekend.

The issue I have with this plan is how easily it can be manipulated by Skum. They know how many PRs are in play, but we do not. That makes the order of the claim very important. We have no IC. How do we choose an order? I guess we could do like sign up list or something like that but even then... what is the upside we hope for?
If there are only 3 Town PR rolls, skum will just claim to be PR, putting that player 1/4 in a CC situation if we choose that pool... which we wouldn't even have to do because there could actually be 4 Town Rolls (the same scales down if there are only 2 or 1 town rolls, and again... we don't know, but skum does). Unless there is literally only 1 Town Roll, skum would never choose to go all VT claim, as with 1 PR roll they could all claim VT and leave themselves 3-4/7 in the VT pool, but even with just two Town PRs it would put them at 3-5/6. They are both bad, but in the first option if skum is in the Hood it would have them at 2 Mafia and 1-2 Traitors , which is right on the break even line.

If we do the VT/Not VT claim Skum will almost assuredly have 1-2 of them claim to be a PR because  we as Town have no way of assigning a second claim order to try and safely catch skum in a lie, as well as they know how many roles exist so they will be able to use the situation to create the pools of the size they want. 
There is no downside to me pointing this out - it is the clear play. If there are 3+ Town PR Rolls then we will have to flip a coin on which pool to pick from, and then from there we will have between a 20%-33% chance in finding skum, based upon which pool we pick and how many roles there are. If there are less than 3 Town PR rolls, it is just a bad play. The math doesn't even matter based on the amount of maneuverability it allows skum.

We know at a minimum though that there are at least 2 skum and at least 1 Traitor (additionally, possibly another traitor and the potential SK) all in the NOT HOOD pool. If we get rid of the second traitor and the the SK options, that still leaves 3/7 chance of skum - which is 42.8%. We have a better chance right now of lynching skum focusing on the NOT HOOD lynch pool than we could realistically have of creating two pools based on VT vs not VT. So I do not see the point in claiming.

Ash - do you have any thoughts on this?

[gkrieg13]

I don’t support the plan to claim. I think knowing the people in the neighborhood is important, but I think we should lunch outside the neighborhood for today. Silvers point much earlier that lynching scum in the neighborhood creates ICs is not that great because we get one IC in the best case at this point. I think we have better odds outside the neighborhood even if scum is in the neighborhood?  I haven’t been reading super closely so it is possible someone has already brought this up.

[EFHW]

DatSwan,  you keep criticizing me for claiming, but in the qt analysis you are referencing, you said (paraphrasing here) that in the case of scum in neighborhood, claiming is good. I felt there was a good chance of one of you being scum. I don't have a town read on ash, either. He feels more careful than usual.

Also, protecting prs is usually a high priority, but the prs in this game don't seem worth the importance you are giving them.

I'm sorry if you felt betrayed.  I carefully didn't actually promise or agree to anything in the qt. Sharing a qt feels like comraderie, but with unknown alignments it can't really be that.

[Swowl]

DatSwan,  you keep criticizing me for claiming, but in the qt analysis you are referencing, you said (paraphrasing here) that in the case of scum in neighborhood, claiming is good. I felt there was a good chance of one of you being scum. I don't have a town read on ash, either. He feels more careful than usual.

Also, protecting prs is usually a high priority, but the prs in this game don't seem worth the importance you are giving them.

I'm sorry if you felt betrayed.  I carefully didn't actually promise or agree to anything in the qt. Sharing a qt feels like comraderie, but with unknown alignments it can't really be that.

Yeah if it’s any condolence i am trying to make it clear i don’t like your play but also don’t think it means your skum.

Also, to the point of me saying skum in hood = claim is good is our difference of opinion. You think there is and i don’t think there is enough evidence to support it. I see the claim From your POV and how it could be good (i disagree with it), but i do see it.

That being said, if you are town, i would ask you to try to look at things from my POV - in which you forcing the claim is like exactly what i would expect skum to do in this spot when you know your hood mates don’t want to claim.

What do you think of my logic of looking outside the hood?

[Swowl]

DatSwan,  you keep criticizing me for claiming, but in the qt analysis you are referencing, you said (paraphrasing here) that in the case of scum in neighborhood, claiming is good. I felt there was a good chance of one of you being scum. I don't have a town read on ash, either. He feels more careful than usual.

Also, protecting prs is usually a high priority, but the prs in this game don't seem worth the importance you are giving them.

I'm sorry if you felt betrayed.  I carefully didn't actually promise or agree to anything in the qt. Sharing a qt feels like comraderie, but with unknown alignments it can't really be that.

Also, just so it is said - if my criticizing comes off as crass, I apologize, it is not intentional. I am evidently incapable of phrasing my thoughts into a polite manner when I get worked up.

[silverspawn]

I don’t support the plan to claim. I think knowing the people in the neighborhood is important, but I think we should lunch outside the neighborhood for today. Silvers point much earlier that lynching scum in the neighborhood creates ICs is not that great because we get one IC in the best case at this point. I think we have better odds outside the neighborhood even if scum is in the neighborhood?  I haven’t been reading super closely so it is possible someone has already brought this up.

Just saying it's only 1 IC because scum will kill the other is not a useful way to look at it, because in drawing a NK the IC is already useful, protecting the PRs. We get 2 ICs. And we have watched and bodyguard potential as well.

For the probability you seem to be mistaken, see DatSwan's post.

[silverspawn]

What does third party claim in your plan if they are survivor?

If they are willing to cooperate, then third party. If they're not, then whatever they want.

[silverspawn]

If they want to cooperate a little bit but don't want to reveal themselves, then VT. That's definitely better for us than PR.

[ashersky]

So a scum-aligned 3rd party, be it a traitor or survivor who thinks mafia is the way to go can also mess with your plan, not just the actual scum? 

Cool. Cool cool cool.

[silverspawn]

In other news, a player who helps mafia is bad for town.

[MiX]

In other news, a player who helps mafia is bad for town.

To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today (and town gets NKd). It's not their fault either, we just enter a 5-5 if that happens. Then there's SK, which I suppose wouldn't do it but also cuts town's winrate by a lot, and traitor who has no choice.

So has everyone reached the "lynch outside the hood" scenario? Of those, who would we lynch? Can I remention our boy Glooble, sitting there scumreading Swan for literally nothing alignment indicative (and even pushing ADK for something from a previous game) all of day 1?

[silverspawn]

To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today

No. That depends on the survivor. Some survivors don't just have winning as a goal, but would rather win with town.

So has everyone reached the "lynch outside the hood" scenario?

No no no. We lynch DatSwan or ash

[faust]

Vote Count 2.4

jotheonah (2): 2.71828....., gkrieg13
MiX (2): jotheonah, Glooble
mcmcsalot (2): DatSwan, silverspawn
Glooble (1): MiX
ashersky (1): pubby

Not Voting (4): mcmcsalot, EFHW, ashersky, pingpongsam

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on June 19, 2019, 10:10:00 am.

[silverspawn]

Two people in the neighborhood said they wanted to lynch outside of the neighborhood and that swayed your opinion?

[MiX]

To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today

No. That depends on the survivor. Some survivors don't just have winning as a goal, but would rather win with town.

If they want to win, they'll...want to win. It's much safer. I'm not even going to attempt to see a scenario where someone doesn't take the winning move.

Two people in the neighborhood said they wanted to lynch outside of the neighborhood and that swayed your opinion?

No, I always had this opinion.

[ashersky]

To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today

No. That depends on the survivor. Some survivors don't just have winning as a goal, but would rather win with town.

Then that's literally playing against your own wincon, which is crappy at the least and super crappy at the worst.  It also makes it hard for town to know how to make the right play.

[ashersky]

Two people in the neighborhood said they wanted to lynch outside of the neighborhood and that swayed your opinion?

Which two people in the hood said that?

[ashersky]

I'm getting a stronger and stronger feeling that SS is scum leading this game to a scum win.

A plan to out all town PRs with tons of holes in it pointed out by multiple players which he continually ignores.
Blatant mischaracterizations of some players' statements.
A seemingly misleading push to tie the PR outing plan to lynching within the neighborhood.

Remember, scum already knows everything.  Scum can plan accordingly, or even make the plan.  SS is posting like he already knows everything.

[ashersky]

In other news, a player who helps mafia is bad for town.

And yet, how will we know who that player is?  Oh right, we won't, which is why your you can't sufficiently account for it, or any other anti-town actions taken in your plan.

[silverspawn]

Two people in the neighborhood said they wanted to lynch outside of the neighborhood and that swayed your opinion?

Which two people in the hood said that?

DatSwan and  I thought you said it, too, but I could be wrong.

To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today

No. That depends on the survivor. Some survivors don't just have winning as a goal, but would rather win with town.

Then that's literally playing against your own wincon, which is crappy at the least and super crappy at the worst.  It also makes it hard for town to know how to make the right play.

Whether or not you disapprove of it, there are people who don't just play for their own wincon as survivor. I know because I'm one of them. This is documented.

[silverspawn]

The reason I'm not laying out in detail how creating buckets benefits town is that I would have to go in detail and that might help scum make better decisions during the massclaim.

The benefits should really be obvious. You guys have all played mafia before. We get claims, we analyze them, we find things that are suspicious. Most of the time scum doesn't play perfectly and claims themselves into a bad scenario. Most likely we end up with a situation where we have several subsets of players and can say with fairly high confidence that one scum is in each. We find them, we get ICs. There's a reason why sensor is never used; creating these kinds of sets is too strong for PR.

[silverspawn]

I admit that I have considered you being scum based on not seeing that claiming is a good idea, but the more benign explanation is that your intuition is wrong.

[ashersky]

I both like claims in general and readily concede that there are benefits to your claiming plan.

My contention (intuition) is that this specific plan (VT/not-VT claiming) is too easily manipulated by scum AND an unknown third party (unless you are the survivor who wants to win with town even if that means you lose, so that's why you feel so sure?).

Do you see any world in which you want to lynch anyone from outside the hood?  Because if not, there's no reason to claim, as there are no possible counterclaims, so nothing to really lynch on.

So those are my points.  Seems too easily manipulated and seems to have no impact on a neighborhood lynch.  It's probably has some utility if we are lynching outside of the hood?  But I doubt it.

At any rate, you definitely don't have consensus, right or wrong.  I assume more voices will come?  Or lurkers will just lurk it out.

[MiX]

The reason I'm not laying out in detail how creating buckets benefits town is that I would have to go in detail and that might help scum make better decisions during the massclaim.

The benefits should really be obvious. You guys have all played mafia before. We get claims, we analyze them, we find things that are suspicious. Most of the time scum doesn't play perfectly and claims themselves into a bad scenario. Most likely we end up with a situation where we have several subsets of players and can say with fairly high confidence that one scum is in each. We find them, we get ICs. There's a reason why sensor is never used; creating these kinds of sets is too strong for PR.

There's 5 people fakeclaiming. We don't know how many PRs there are, but scum does. Groups will most likely have more than 1 scum in them. We can't fully determine how much scum are in each group unless they seriously screw it up. This basically gives scum a bunch of information while giving town very little to work with. I can't see how this seperation of players helps lynching scum.

PPE: Oh you want to lynch in hood? What's your top scumread there?

[silverspawn]

clearly, there is no unity on the claiming plan, so we don't claim today. Let's just lynch whoever is scummiest then.

PPE: Oh you want to lynch in hood? What's your top scumread there?

ash or datswan. I'll tell you after an ISO of datswan that will occur at an uknonwn point before the deadline.

[ashersky]

MiX seems towny today, mostly due to SS.  That's...so strange.

I was scumreading from D1 into N1.

Maybe it's the overt sheeping/lack of self-confidence in the MiX posts recently?

[Glooble]

MiX seems towny today, mostly due to SS.  That's...so strange.

I was scumreading from D1 into N1.

Maybe it's the overt sheeping/lack of self-confidence in the MiX posts recently?

I found MiX scummy day 1, but I gave him a pass because I *always* scumread him, and he wasn't acting significantly *more* scummy than the baseline.

Today he's been giving off an even scummier vibe, so I've decided just to go with my gut.

All this math stuff is giving me a bit of a headache, but I'm not particularly scumreading anyone in the neighborhood right now, so I guess I'm in favor of lynching outside the hood just sort of by default.

[Glooble]

Also not sure where you're getting lack of confidence- he seems pretty damn confident that I'm scum based on tissue paper evidence.

[ashersky]

Also not sure where you're getting lack of confidence- he seems pretty damn confident that I'm scum based on tissue paper evidence.

I think it just seems to me like he's deferring to SS on everything SS-related.

Maybe that's what I'm sensing.

[jotheonah]

I'm getting a stronger and stronger feeling that SS is scum leading this game to a scum win.

A plan to out all town PRs with tons of holes in it pointed out by multiple players which he continually ignores.
Blatant mischaracterizations of some players' statements.
A seemingly misleading push to tie the PR outing plan to lynching within the neighborhood.

Remember, scum already knows everything.  Scum can plan accordingly, or even make the plan.  SS is posting like he already knows everything.

Ok but, does scum actually ever do this? I feel like I am very susceptible to suspecting that a town person who is leading is scum... but I can’t recall ever actually seeing it. IRL, scum is almost always sitting back and playing reactively, since it’s so hard to know how town will react to a claiming plan.

[jotheonah]

And furthermore, “claim pushing is scummy” isn’t an argument I’d expect from town!ash who is usually such a grounded realist when I suggest that scum is doing a crazy gambit. So that post really makes me want to vote: ash.

I still think that if there turns out to be scum in the neighborhood I want to lynch MiX next.

[MiX]

Also not sure where you're getting lack of confidence- he seems pretty damn confident that I'm scum based on tissue paper evidence.

I think it just seems to me like he's deferring to SS on everything SS-related.

Maybe that's what I'm sensing.

I'm against claiming *and* against lynching in hood. So what do you mean by this?

And furthermore, “claim pushing is scummy” isn’t an argument I’d expect from town!ash who is usually such a grounded realist when I suggest that scum is doing a crazy gambit. So that post really makes me want to vote: ash.

I still think that if there turns out to be scum in the neighborhood I want to lynch MiX next.

Isn't it easier to lynch non-town outside the hood regardless? There's at least 3 scum out of 9 here, sounds better than hood. And scum would just start "scumreading" someone in it? You know, like what you're doing? But I like your case.

[ashersky]

Ok but, does scum actually ever do this? I feel like I am very susceptible to suspecting that a town person who is leading is scum... but I can’t recall ever actually seeing it. IRL, scum is almost always sitting back and playing reactively, since it’s so hard to know how town will react to a claiming plan.

Yes, I do it all the time.  At least, I used to.  So does gkrieg, so does faust, I'm sure a few others.

And furthermore, “claim pushing is scummy” isn’t an argument I’d expect from town!ash who is usually such a grounded realist when I suggest that scum is doing a crazy gambit. So that post really makes me want to vote: ash.

I still think that if there turns out to be scum in the neighborhood I want to lynch MiX next.

What are you talking about?  Grounded realist?  What?

I'm literally the scum doing the crazy gambit every game.  And claim pushing is scummy this game because it appears to be a negative utility move for town.  Even SS has agreed that claiming should be put off for now.  He basically backed off his plan when he didn't get enough traction.  That's also the move scum would pull there (as would town).

I'm honestly just confused by you here.  I'd say it was scummy if it made any sense, but it doesn't.  So I guess it's not?

[ashersky]

Time for a popsquiz, which I would suggest for everyone.

Signup list order:

Townish:
glooble, pps, efhw, gkrieg

Nullish:
MiX, DatSwan, joth, 2.7

Scummish:
mcmc, pubby, ss

Upgrades from D1: MiX, Glooble
Downgrades from D1: DatSwan, mcmc, ss

Mcmc did not impress in his tiny return.

[gkrieg13]

I’m almost positive ash is town here. Giving reads and thoughtful reactions to plans while not getting too overly emotional about votes on him is not his scum persona at least.

[MiX]

Ash, can you say why Glooble got an upgrade?

I’m almost positive ash is town here. Giving reads and thoughtful reactions to plans while not getting too overly emotional about votes on him is not his scum persona at least.

What have you done this game? I forgot.

[silverspawn]

I'm getting a stronger and stronger feeling that SS is scum leading this game to a scum win.

A plan to out all town PRs with tons of holes in it pointed out by multiple players which he continually ignores.
Blatant mischaracterizations of some players' statements.
A seemingly misleading push to tie the PR outing plan to lynching within the neighborhood.

Remember, scum already knows everything.  Scum can plan accordingly, or even make the plan.  SS is posting like he already knows everything.

Ok but, does scum actually ever do this? I feel like I am very susceptible to suspecting that a town person who is leading is scum... but I can’t recall ever actually seeing it. IRL, scum is almost always sitting back and playing reactively, since it’s so hard to know how town will react to a claiming plan.

There is one infamous game of faust leading and everyone following. But I can't remember any other example.

[jotheonah]

Ok but, does scum actually ever do this? I feel like I am very susceptible to suspecting that a town person who is leading is scum... but I can’t recall ever actually seeing it. IRL, scum is almost always sitting back and playing reactively, since it’s so hard to know how town will react to a claiming plan.

Yes, I do it all the time.  At least, I used to.  So does gkrieg, so does faust, I'm sure a few others.

And furthermore, “claim pushing is scummy” isn’t an argument I’d expect from town!ash who is usually such a grounded realist when I suggest that scum is doing a crazy gambit. So that post really makes me want to vote: ash.

I still think that if there turns out to be scum in the neighborhood I want to lynch MiX next.

What are you talking about?  Grounded realist?  What?

I'm literally the scum doing the crazy gambit every game.  And claim pushing is scummy this game because it appears to be a negative utility move for town.  Even SS has agreed that claiming should be put off for now.  He basically backed off his plan when he didn't get enough traction.  That's also the move scum would pull there (as would town).

I'm honestly just confused by you here.  I'd say it was scummy if it made any sense, but it doesn't.  So I guess it's not?

Humor me. Show me some games where scum actually came out trying to lead town and pushing for a mass claim. Bonus points if it actually worked.

It’s possible I’m remembering things wrong, but my sense of you Ash is a person who has been around the block and knows the difference between scummy things and things actual scum does. But maybe I’m the one whose sense of this is wrong.

[silverspawn]

Even ss has agreed that claiming should be put off for now.  He basically backed off his plan when he didn't get enough traction.  That's also the move scum would pull there (as would town).

I'm honestly just confused by you here.  I'd say it was scummy if it made any sense, but it doesn't.  So I guess it's not?

This interpretation is totally unnecessarily sinister, and it's also completely false. I'm backing off the plan because it's not pro town to insisting on a claim if it won't be done. That would just be irrational.

[silverspawn]

EBWOP I guess actually said that town would do it too, so nvm.

[ashersky]

Even ss has agreed that claiming should be put off for now.  He basically backed off his plan when he didn't get enough traction.  That's also the move scum would pull there (as would town).

I'm honestly just confused by you here.  I'd say it was scummy if it made any sense, but it doesn't.  So I guess it's not?

This interpretation is totally unnecessarily sinister, and it's also completely false. I'm backing off the plan because it's not pro town to insisting on a claim if it won't be done. That would just be irrational.

I didn't mean for it to be sinister.  I just meant to show how it could fit a scum narrative, which also clearly including the possibility for a town narrative.

The second line is about joth, which I assume you knew?

[silverspawn]

The second line is about joth, which I assume you knew?

Yeah, sorry. I got mildly upset and then didn't read (and didn't quote) your post properly.

[ashersky]

Ok but, does scum actually ever do this? I feel like I am very susceptible to suspecting that a town person who is leading is scum... but I can’t recall ever actually seeing it. IRL, scum is almost always sitting back and playing reactively, since it’s so hard to know how town will react to a claiming plan.

Yes, I do it all the time.  At least, I used to.  So does gkrieg, so does faust, I'm sure a few others.

And furthermore, “claim pushing is scummy” isn’t an argument I’d expect from town!ash who is usually such a grounded realist when I suggest that scum is doing a crazy gambit. So that post really makes me want to vote: ash.

I still think that if there turns out to be scum in the neighborhood I want to lynch MiX next.

What are you talking about?  Grounded realist?  What?

I'm literally the scum doing the crazy gambit every game.  And claim pushing is scummy this game because it appears to be a negative utility move for town.  Even SS has agreed that claiming should be put off for now.  He basically backed off his plan when he didn't get enough traction.  That's also the move scum would pull there (as would town).

I'm honestly just confused by you here.  I'd say it was scummy if it made any sense, but it doesn't.  So I guess it's not?

Humor me. Show me some games where scum actually came out trying to lead town and pushing for a mass claim. Bonus points if it actually worked.

It’s possible I’m remembering things wrong, but my sense of you Ash is a person who has been around the block and knows the difference between scummy things and things actual scum does. But maybe I’m the one whose sense of this is wrong.

Your question (I thought) was if scum ever came out and lead town actively, which I strongly believe happens often.  As to what extent leading is happening is probably a subjective opinion, there may not be consensus on which games are where, but I'm guessing many of my scum performances, especially MVP ones, would have examples of folks just doing what I suggest.

As for me as a person, I probably do come off as a grouchy old veteran more often than necessary.  Maybe we just disagree on this point regarding what scum would do vs. what is a scummy thing.  Regarding SS and his claiming plan, I was providing a possible scum narrative there.  I don't think there's much in the way of scum reads on him, which may or may not be dangerous.  (My gut actually has me feeling like he might be third party, given that one post by him.)  He definitely could be town, in the same way that EFHW could be scum outing the hood (for some reason) or town doing what she felt is best (which is where I fall).  I'm just keeping a wary eye out, as scum!SS has burned me before.

[ashersky]

Ash, can you say why Glooble got an upgrade?

Recent posts felt towny.  Glooble and I aren't exactly the best match (thinking back on our first few games together), but I think we've sort of figured each other out at this point.  Glooble may disagree?

I think I felt like his reactions were genuine, which was enough to bump him up.

No popsquiz from you? (or anyone else?)

[jotheonah]

Here's another way to think about it:

How bad is it for scum if they do have one person in the neighborhood and we lynch within the neighborhood?
How good is it for them if the neighborhood is all town and we lynch within the neighborhood?

I think if B were true we'd have someone strongly advocating for that, since it guarantees a waste of several lynches AND keeps the lynch from hitting the traitor in the event that mafia doesn't know who they are (the traitor can't be a neighbor, right?). I think if A were true we'd see someone strongly advocating for lynching outside the neighborhood, since even though 1/3 = 3/9 mathematically, in reality having six options for mislynch is very much preferably to having 2, especially when one of those two is EFHW, who everyone seems to be generally townreading.

Anyway, what we've seen is nobody, except maybe silver, pushing particularly hard for lynching in neighborhood. DatSwan, gkrieg, and MiX have all advocated somewhat strongly for lynching outside of it.

PPE: a whole bunch

[jotheonah]

Also unvote. Did a little rereading and sort of unconvinced myself about ash vs silver.

I don't have a lot of reads I feel solid about this game, but for fun:

Townish:
glooble, 2.7, efhw

IDKish*:
ash, silverspawn, gkrieg

Nullish:
pps

Scummish:
MiX, pubby, DatSwan

*IDKish means I sometimes scumread and sometimes townread, whereas nullish means I'm gettin nothin either way.

[Glooble]

My initial thought when SS suggested the claiming plan was that he might be the tracker reporter, but that seemed a little on-the-nose. I feel like if he had that role silver would be more subtle. But it's worth pointing out the possibility- if someone wants all the PRs to claim, they might just be the role that needs all the PRs dead.

PPE 1: I think I have a much better handle on ash then I did in Imperial Radch mafia, and I'm mostly townreading him this game.

I can do a popsquiz in a bit.

[Glooble]

Townish:
joth, EFHW, ashersky, gkrieg

nullish (because scummy and towny stuff cancels out):
DatSwan, silverspawn, pubby

nullish (because of lurking/ lack of data):
pps, mcmcsalot, e

scummish:
MiX

[silverspawn]

If I were third party, I'd probably claim, I think. In any case, I'm not; I'm town.

[MiX]

I want to know where the term "popsquiz" comes from. Anyway:

Town:
ss, ash, joth, Swan

Towny:
pps, EFHW

Null:
gkrieg, pubby

Scummy:
mcmc, e?

Scum:
Glooble, e?


Scum tend to fall in the "towny" part, and that's also where I have Glooble, but I'm convinced it's because they're scum. Less so for pps and not at all for EFHW because she's a recent addition to it.

If I were third party, I'd probably claim, I think. In any case, I'm not; I'm town.

Are you a VT?

[Glooble]

Are you a VT?

What possible reason could you have for asking that?

[jotheonah]

I want to know where the term "popsquiz" comes from.

A player named "popsofctown" who was in the very first games on f.ds

[silverspawn]

Are you a VT?

What possible reason could you have for asking that?

more importantly, how would answering that possibly be a good idea?

[silverspawn]

prod: e

[pingpongsam]

I'm basically null on everyone.

If I were really separating buckets I'd put the neighborhood as town for now : EFHW, Ash, and Datswan (of these I feel best about Ash and EFHW in that order)

I think MiX is probstown but still null.

Everyone else is a solid null except for SS who is like a polarizing form of null (joth's IDKish) where I've gotten strong tells from both leanings.

I could be inclined to sheep MiX and vote Glooble. I want to do a deep reread of someone in particular. I don't think the neighbors a good pick (although the fact they are neighbors is helpful in a reread). This sucks because I'd like it to be better than a dart throw but I may just throw a dart after all.

[pingpongsam]

Dart landed on jotheonah; bbl with something.

[Glooble]

I don't think the neighbors a good pick (although the fact they are neighbors is helpful in a reread).

Just as a note when you're rereading I don't believe the neighbors knew each other's identities until night 1.

faust is this correct?

[MiX]

Are you a VT?

What possible reason could you have for asking that?

more importantly, how would answering that possibly be a good idea?

The only reason I unvoted ss D1 was because they essencially said they were a third-party. Given what I know of ss that made perfect sense so I backed off. The fact that they aren't means they're either scum or town that has already answered this question, so I want to know which ss we're dealing with here.

Unless someone doesn't know what ss is, in which case there might be scum that don't either, so the question's anti-town.

I don't think the neighbors a good pick (although the fact they are neighbors is helpful in a reread).

Just as a note when you're rereading I don't believe the neighbors knew each other's identities until night 1.

faust is this correct?

That's a good piece of correct information right there.

[faust]

I don't think the neighbors a good pick (although the fact they are neighbors is helpful in a reread).

Just as a note when you're rereading I don't believe the neighbors knew each other's identities until night 1.

faust is this correct?

Yes.

[jotheonah]

ok, but neighbor scum have had the opportunity to tell non-neighbor scum who their neighbors are, right? My last post sorta depends on that.

[MiX]

ok, but neighbor scum have had the opportunity to tell non-neighbor scum who their neighbors are, right? My last post sorta depends on that.

Yes, in night 1, why is this important?

[silverspawn]

The only reason I unvoted ss D1 was because they essencially said they were a third-party.

I did no such thing. What quote are you referring to?

[jotheonah]

ok, but neighbor scum have had the opportunity to tell non-neighbor scum who their neighbors are, right? My last post sorta depends on that.

Yes, in night 1, why is this important?

You ever think about just reading all my posts?

[jotheonah]

Here's another way to think about it:

How bad is it for scum if they do have one person in the neighborhood and we lynch within the neighborhood?
How good is it for them if the neighborhood is all town and we lynch within the neighborhood?

I think if B were true we'd have someone strongly advocating for that, since it guarantees a waste of several lynches AND keeps the lynch from hitting the traitor in the event that mafia doesn't know who they are (the traitor can't be a neighbor, right?). I think if A were true we'd see someone strongly advocating for lynching outside the neighborhood, since even though 1/3 = 3/9 mathematically, in reality having six options for mislynch is very much preferably to having 2, especially when one of those two is EFHW, who everyone seems to be generally townreading.

Anyway, what we've seen is nobody, except maybe silver, pushing particularly hard for lynching in neighborhood. DatSwan, gkrieg, and MiX have all advocated somewhat strongly for lynching outside of it.

PPE: a whole bunch

[MiX]

ok, but neighbor scum have had the opportunity to tell non-neighbor scum who their neighbors are, right? My last post sorta depends on that.

Yes, in night 1, why is this important?

You ever think about just reading all my posts?

To be fair, I did read your last post. Also the post you just quoted is a big mess with As and Bs and non-yes-or-no questions followed with "if X were true/false", so you can't expect me to understand everything you're saying in it. And how does scum knowing neighbors N1 impact this? They can solidify their stance on neighbor lynching after they were revealed.

[jotheonah]

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

The sooner you out them, the faster we can start considering them.

Joth's one of them, and I suspect the other's pubby? Maaaaaybe ss/pps. So if I can figure this out surely scum can, I don't see why you would scumread them and not out them.

Can we talk about whether or not this is a scumslip?

I think a town player would make some mental notes when they see the following post:

@MiX, what is your question? We had a consensus on the vig.

That answers it. Did you propose that idea or had it in mind before N1?

I started with Glooble and joth. One person was hesitant about Glooble and suggested MiX. I didn't want MiX and brought up Eddie. There was consensus from there. The third neighbor didn't suggest or object to anyone. The ease of the consensus made me worry that Eddie was town, but I decided that a scum neighbor could be uncomfortable objecting to a partner. I also couldn't change the target on my own and didn't know the motivations of the non-scum neighbor.

Both felt strongly that we shouldn't claim. I didn't say anything one way or the other.

The way things happened made me concerned that there was indeed scum in the neighborhood and that is why I claimed.

But MiX is convinced I'm a member of the neighborhood. There's no way that's an honest town mistake, because the evidence against it is front and center.

On the other hand, assuming scum!MiX already knew who was in the neighborhood, that would explain why that post didn't register with him and he made that mistake.

vote: MiX

[gkrieg13]

Here's another way to think about it:

How bad is it for scum if they do have one person in the neighborhood and we lynch within the neighborhood?
How good is it for them if the neighborhood is all town and we lynch within the neighborhood?

I think if B were true we'd have someone strongly advocating for that, since it guarantees a waste of several lynches AND keeps the lynch from hitting the traitor in the event that mafia doesn't know who they are (the traitor can't be a neighbor, right?). I think if A were true we'd see someone strongly advocating for lynching outside the neighborhood, since even though 1/3 = 3/9 mathematically, in reality having six options for mislynch is very much preferably to having 2, especially when one of those two is EFHW, who everyone seems to be generally townreading.

Anyway, what we've seen is nobody, except maybe silver, pushing particularly hard for lynching in neighborhood. DatSwan, gkrieg, and MiX have all advocated somewhat strongly for lynching outside of it.

PPE: a whole bunch

These are good points. I thought there were fewer than 12 people alive, and that we would have better chances lynching outside the neighborhood. Given that I'm not in the neighborhood, there are still higher chances of hitting scum outside the neighborhood for me (which includes the chance of there being a traitor, which I think is the most likely role for 3rd party to choose in this setup).

More than anything, I was just arguing that silver's plan (from a long time ago, when it wasn't really a plan, just speculation before we knew who was in the neighborhood) that it was better to lynch from the neighborhood because when we lynch scum we have a bunch of ICs isn't that great of a plan. There are too many variables and at best, we get one IC. At this point, we would basically just get EFHW as an IC if we were to lynch scum in the neighborhood (which there isn't necessarily), which I would argue is not that big of a deal seeing as she is already pretty townie to everyone.

Hopefully that makes sense.

I also townread ash and EFHW, but am not sure that Datswan is all that scummy either. I think he would be the scum in there if there is one due to POE, but there are scummier people outside the neighborhood.

[jotheonah]

ok, but neighbor scum have had the opportunity to tell non-neighbor scum who their neighbors are, right? My last post sorta depends on that.

Yes, in night 1, why is this important?

You ever think about just reading all my posts?

To be fair, I did read your last post. Also the post you just quoted is a big mess with As and Bs and non-yes-or-no questions followed with "if X were true/false", so you can't expect me to understand everything you're saying in it. And how does scum knowing neighbors N1 impact this? They can solidify their stance on neighbor lynching after they were revealed.

Hopefully my post above answers your question. It's very relevant because it confirms to me that you scumslipped.

[gkrieg13]

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

The sooner you out them, the faster we can start considering them.

Joth's one of them, and I suspect the other's pubby? Maaaaaybe ss/pps. So if I can figure this out surely scum can, I don't see why you would scumread them and not out them.

Can we talk about whether or not this is a scumslip?

I think a town player would make some mental notes when they see the following post:

@MiX, what is your question? We had a consensus on the vig.

That answers it. Did you propose that idea or had it in mind before N1?

I started with Glooble and joth. One person was hesitant about Glooble and suggested MiX. I didn't want MiX and brought up Eddie. There was consensus from there. The third neighbor didn't suggest or object to anyone. The ease of the consensus made me worry that Eddie was town, but I decided that a scum neighbor could be uncomfortable objecting to a partner. I also couldn't change the target on my own and didn't know the motivations of the non-scum neighbor.

Both felt strongly that we shouldn't claim. I didn't say anything one way or the other.

The way things happened made me concerned that there was indeed scum in the neighborhood and that is why I claimed.

But MiX is convinced I'm a member of the neighborhood. There's no way that's an honest town mistake, because the evidence against it is front and center.

On the other hand, assuming scum!MiX already knew who was in the neighborhood, that would explain why that post didn't register with him and he made that mistake.

vote: MiX

Not sure if this is a scum slip, but it does impact my null read on MiX.

[MiX]

ok, but neighbor scum have had the opportunity to tell non-neighbor scum who their neighbors are, right? My last post sorta depends on that.

Yes, in night 1, why is this important?

You ever think about just reading all my posts?

To be fair, I did read your last post. Also the post you just quoted is a big mess with As and Bs and non-yes-or-no questions followed with "if X were true/false", so you can't expect me to understand everything you're saying in it. And how does scum knowing neighbors N1 impact this? They can solidify their stance on neighbor lynching after they were revealed.

Hopefully my post above answers your question. It's very relevant because it confirms to me that you scumslipped.

Oh, so it's relevent not for the previous post, but for the future post, I see.

So I read the post, and your case. I'm assuming the "scumslip" is I didn't see EFHW mention that she wanted joth to be vigged? I'm 100% positive a later post of mine acknowledges that I saw that when naming the neighbor.

[gkrieg13]

Townish:
efhw, ash, silver (I always read him opposite of what he is and it scares me)

Nullish:
joth, 2.7, pps, Glooble

Scummier than null, nullier than scum:
MiX, DatSwan, mcmc, pubby

Scummish:
Need to really reread, because I can't remember people well enough for them to be fully scummish

[jotheonah]

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

The sooner you out them, the faster we can start considering them.

Joth's one of them, and I suspect the other's pubby? Maaaaaybe ss/pps. So if I can figure this out surely scum can, I don't see why you would scumread them and not out them.

Joth wanted to vig... himself?

I suppose EFHW wouldn't suggest someone in it, but the way she said the second person didn't want Glooble and said nothing about joth seems like it would be joth. Just wild guessing, which is something scum can do better knowing 4 people that cannot be in the neighborhood. Regardless, scumreading neighbors is pointless if they aren't revealed.

This is the post you're talking about. So your defense is that you honestly thought the three people in the neighborhood were discussing possible targets (for a kill that requires majority consensus) and included one of their own in that discussion? That's pretty weak.

[gkrieg13]

Townish:
efhw, ash, silver (I always read him opposite of what he is and it scares me)

Nullish:
joth, 2.7, pps, Glooble

Scummier than null, nullier than scum:
MiX, DatSwan, mcmc, pubby

Scummish:
Need to really reread, because I can't remember people well enough for them to be fully scummish

Actually from their reads on each other, I put the twins a little bit townier than nullish. Datswan is also just barely in the scummier than null camp, but most of that is due to me townreading the others in the neighborhood and if anyone is scum in the neighborhood, it's Datswan I think.

[silverspawn]

@Mix, I want to know where you thought I said that I was third party.

The degree to which that scum slip is not a scum slip is quite enormous.

[MiX]

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

The sooner you out them, the faster we can start considering them.

Joth's one of them, and I suspect the other's pubby? Maaaaaybe ss/pps. So if I can figure this out surely scum can, I don't see why you would scumread them and not out them.

Joth wanted to vig... himself?

I suppose EFHW wouldn't suggest someone in it, but the way she said the second person didn't want Glooble and said nothing about joth seems like it would be joth. Just wild guessing, which is something scum can do better knowing 4 people that cannot be in the neighborhood. Regardless, scumreading neighbors is pointless if they aren't revealed.

This is the post you're talking about. So your defense is that you honestly thought the three people in the neighborhood were discussing possible targets (for a kill that requires majority consensus) and included one of their own in that discussion? That's pretty weak.

It doesn't fit your narrative, that's for sure. Unless I didn't notice and then noticed it immediatly and decided to rectify it? Sounds like a weak case.

[jotheonah]

You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

The sooner you out them, the faster we can start considering them.

Joth's one of them, and I suspect the other's pubby? Maaaaaybe ss/pps. So if I can figure this out surely scum can, I don't see why you would scumread them and not out them.

Joth wanted to vig... himself?

I suppose EFHW wouldn't suggest someone in it, but the way she said the second person didn't want Glooble and said nothing about joth seems like it would be joth. Just wild guessing, which is something scum can do better knowing 4 people that cannot be in the neighborhood. Regardless, scumreading neighbors is pointless if they aren't revealed.

This is the post you're talking about. So your defense is that you honestly thought the three people in the neighborhood were discussing possible targets (for a kill that requires majority consensus) and included one of their own in that discussion? That's pretty weak.

It doesn't fit your narrative, that's for sure. Unless I didn't notice and then noticed it immediatly and decided to rectify it? Sounds like a weak case.

Haha nice try, but as you can see above you came up with that after Glooble pointed out your mistake, so my narrative works fine.

[jotheonah]

The degree to which that scum slip is not a scum slip is quite enormous.

And why is that? Tell me how town makes that mistake.

[silverspawn]

The degree to which that scum slip is not a scum slip is quite enormous.

And why is that? Tell me how town makes that mistake.

They don't read EFHW's post properly.

[jotheonah]

The degree to which that scum slip is not a scum slip is quite enormous.

And why is that? Tell me how town makes that mistake.

They don't read EFHW's post properly.

So MiX is town who is sincerely interested in guessing who's in the neighborhood, but doesn't take the time to carefully read the ONE post that contains clues to who's in the neighborhood? You must not think much of MiX's play abilities.

[MiX]

This defensiveness is, however.

No.

For me this said "it's not scummy because third-pary/PRs want to defend themselves too", otherwise you would've written much more.

Haha nice try, but as you can see above you came up with that after Glooble pointed out your mistake, so my narrative works fine.

In other news I can read and arrive at the same conclusion from reading the same things, no need to point this out. But you have a narrative to push, so fine. Yes, this is true, this is obviously true, and if you ever try to say that scum!me would say what I said above hoping people would forget Glooble's the one that questioned it then you have the polar opposite of what I do as scum. Or anyone, really, who would do this on purpose?

The degree to which that scum slip is not a scum slip is quite enormous.

And why is that? Tell me how town makes that mistake.

They don't read EFHW's post properly.

I did read it, and I thought not mentioning what the second person (ash) thought of joth meant it was joth.

[silverspawn]

The degree to which that scum slip is not a scum slip is quite enormous.

And why is that? Tell me how town makes that mistake.

They don't read EFHW's post properly.

So MiX is town who is sincerely interested in guessing who's in the neighborhood, but doesn't take the time to carefully read the ONE post that contains clues to who's in the neighborhood? You must not think much of MiX's play abilities.

All I can say is that this could easily happen to me.

[jotheonah]

Yes, this is true, this is obviously true, and if you ever try to say that scum!me would say what I said above hoping people would forget Glooble's the one that questioned it then you have the polar opposite of what I do as scum. Or anyone, really, who would do this on purpose?

So what WOULD scum!you post in response to Glooble catching your mistake? I think what you posted is a decent attempt at covering.

[Glooble]

I did read it, and I thought not mentioning what the second person (ash) thought of joth meant it was joth.

What?

[jotheonah]

The degree to which that scum slip is not a scum slip is quite enormous.

And why is that? Tell me how town makes that mistake.

They don't read EFHW's post properly.

So MiX is town who is sincerely interested in guessing who's in the neighborhood, but doesn't take the time to carefully read the ONE post that contains clues to who's in the neighborhood? You must not think much of MiX's play abilities.

All I can say is that this could easily happen to me.

...because you're also scum?

[Glooble]

I read that sentence like four times and I have no idea what it means.

[jotheonah]

I read that sentence like four times and I have no idea what it means.

It means he sincerely thought that the neighborhood was sitting around talking about which one of themselves to target with their consensus-based vigs. Which is patently ridiculous.

[silverspawn]

The fact that MiX doesn't claim not to have missed it makes me more willing to consider that it was a scum slip.

The problem is though that it only makes a little bit more sense as scum than town, so it's fairly weak evidence. But I might concede that it's non-negligible.

[silverspawn]

This defensiveness is, however.

No.

For me this said "it's not scummy because third-pary/PRs want to defend themselves too", otherwise you would've written much more.

That is very creative.

[MiX]

Yes, this is true, this is obviously true, and if you ever try to say that scum!me would say what I said above hoping people would forget Glooble's the one that questioned it then you have the polar opposite of what I do as scum. Or anyone, really, who would do this on purpose?

So what WOULD scum!you post in response to Glooble catching your mistake? I think what you posted is a decent attempt at covering.

Scum!me would acknowledge that it's a good reason to scumread me because mistakes = scummy. Town!me knows better.

I did read it, and I thought not mentioning what the second person (ash) thought of joth meant it was joth.

What?

EFHW suggested Glooble and joth and the second person didn't want Glooble and suggested MiX. But what about joth? EFHW didn't talk about him again or what the hood thought of him. Thus I concluded the second person was joth. Get it now?

I read that sentence like four times and I have no idea what it means.

It means he sincerely thought that the neighborhood was sitting around talking about which one of themselves to target with their consensus-based vigs. Which is patently ridiculous.

There's 3 people in it, they can definitely overpower one of the neighbors.

[jotheonah]

Ok, I think I'm done going back and forth on this. Maybe other people who show up will see this my way.

As pubby would say, I don't see my vote moving again today.

[EFHW]

So, your case is that MiX didn't pay attention to my post about deciding who to target?

I'm confused by his comment that scum would know 4 people who couldn't be in the neighborhood. What 4?

[EFHW]

Was it MiX who made the "mafia knows traitor " mistake earlier?

[MiX]

So, your case is that MiX didn't pay attention to my post about deciding who to target?

I'm confused by his comment that scum would know 4 people who couldn't be in the neighborhood. What 4?

I first counted traitor, and then I realized I could count myself instead! You know given I claimed to not be neighbor at the time.

Was it MiX who made the "mafia knows traitor " mistake earlier?

That was joth.

[2.71828.....]

Ok, I think I'm done going back and forth on this. Maybe other people who show up will see this my way.

As pubby would say, I don't see my vote moving again today.

ok.  doing an iso of MiX then.

Just finished reading mcmc.  not much there, but more than me.

[EFHW]

Joth, your theory only works if there is also scum in the neighborhood.  If there isn't,  scum!MiX wouldn't know any more than the rest of you and would have paid attention to my post.

[silverspawn]

Clearly a scum slip because scum!joth knows that there is scum in the neighborhood.

[Swowl]

To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today

No. That depends on the survivor. Some survivors don't just have winning as a goal, but would rather win with town.

So has everyone reached the "lynch outside the hood" scenario?

No no no. We lynch DatSwan or ash

Are you high? Even if you want to lynch inside the hood there is wayyyyyy more of a skum narrative for EFHW than either Ash or myself

[Glooble]

To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today

No. That depends on the survivor. Some survivors don't just have winning as a goal, but would rather win with town.

So has everyone reached the "lynch outside the hood" scenario?

No no no. We lynch DatSwan or ash

Are you high? Even if you want to lynch inside the hood there is wayyyyyy more of a skum narrative for EFHW than either Ash or myself

Why does scum!EFHW out the neighborhood? I'm struggling to see the narrative there, but open to the possibility that I'm missing something obvious.

[jotheonah]

Clearly a scum slip because scum!joth knows that there is scum in the neighborhood.

Hoping this is sarcasm. But yes, the theory hinges on there being scum in the neighborhood.

[EFHW]

Clearly a scum slip because scum!joth knows that there is scum in the neighborhood.

Hoping this is sarcasm. But yes, the theory hinges on there being scum in the neighborhood.

If you are that convinced that there is scum in the neighborhood, why haven't you said so?

[2.71828.....]

MiX - I do not see him as part of the normal scum team at all.  Maybe he is a traitor, but if he is he doesn't know who they are.  MiX is playing like a team all of his own.  In a townie way though.  Knows what he is posting, knows people might find it scummy, but sticks to it because that is who he is.  I respect that.  And think it is townie.

[2.71828.....]

MiX thinks Glooble is scum.  On to them next.

[jotheonah]

Clearly a scum slip because scum!joth knows that there is scum in the neighborhood.

Hoping this is sarcasm. But yes, the theory hinges on there being scum in the neighborhood.

If you are that convinced that there is scum in the neighborhood, why haven't you said so?

I think you're misunderstanding me. I think what MiX did only makes sense in one scenario: MiX is scum and there's scum in the neighborhood. If there's not scum in the neighborhood, then I have no explanation for MiX's scumslip. So scum in the neighborhood follows from my case, not the other way around. Which makes it less relevant right now, because I think we lynch MiX first. If he flips scum, then we start looking for his partner in the neighborhood?

But also, I've said, or at least implied, several times that I think there's scum in the neighborhood based on everyone's reactions to the neighbor reveal and the claim plans. I can quote those posts if you like.

[jotheonah]

Here's one:

So it's EFHW/ash/Swan... most likely they're 3 town, since I don't think any of them would pick survivor. Of these 3...yes, I suppose Swan's the scummiest, but I would sooner lynch EFHW...which revealed this information at my request. I think we just outed 3 town. Thank you EFHW.

I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.

This is a scummy reaction to EFHW’s claim and reveal. Once again, MiX is trying to proactively derail a town plan that might put his partners. Who jumps to “they’re obviously all town” like that? Like, that fast. He doesn’t even consider there’s scum there.

vote: MiX

And then here's the other one:

Here's another way to think about it:

How bad is it for scum if they do have one person in the neighborhood and we lynch within the neighborhood?
How good is it for them if the neighborhood is all town and we lynch within the neighborhood?

I think if B were true we'd have someone strongly advocating for that, since it guarantees a waste of several lynches AND keeps the lynch from hitting the traitor in the event that mafia doesn't know who they are (the traitor can't be a neighbor, right?). I think if A were true we'd see someone strongly advocating for lynching outside the neighborhood, since even though 1/3 = 3/9 mathematically, in reality having six options for mislynch is very much preferably to having 2, especially when one of those two is EFHW, who everyone seems to be generally townreading.

Anyway, what we've seen is nobody, except maybe silver, pushing particularly hard for lynching in neighborhood. DatSwan, gkrieg, and MiX have all advocated somewhat strongly for lynching outside of it.

PPE: a whole bunch

Apparently this was confusingly written, but TL;DR if there's scum in the neighborhood I'd expect some energy to be expended toward getting us to lynch outside the neighborhood, and in fact that is happening. More importantly, if there's no scum in the neighborhood I'd expect there to be more energy toward getting us to lynch in the neighborhood. Therefore, I think scum in the neighborhood is more likely.

[jotheonah]

MiX - I do not see him as part of the normal scum team at all.  Maybe he is a traitor, but if he is he doesn't know who they are.  MiX is playing like a team all of his own.  In a townie way though.  Knows what he is posting, knows people might find it scummy, but sticks to it because that is who he is.  I respect that.  And think it is townie.

Are we playing with the same MiX? Yikes.

[2.71828.....]

MiX - I do not see him as part of the normal scum team at all.  Maybe he is a traitor, but if he is he doesn't know who they are.  MiX is playing like a team all of his own.  In a townie way though.  Knows what he is posting, knows people might find it scummy, but sticks to it because that is who he is.  I respect that.  And think it is townie.

Are we playing with the same MiX? Yikes.

Well, you have some OMGUS going for you.  I have the independent perspective having lurked this entire game.  Doesn't make my perspective any better/worse than yours, just different.

[2.71828.....]

Also, Glooble is town.

Or really helpful scum.

But I think town.

Everything they have done has been useful, pushing the game along, clarifying comments from other people.  Basically, they have had 95% positive impact, and I think they are town for it.  The 5% is in case I missed something not obvious.

[2.71828.....]

MiX - I do not see him as part of the normal scum team at all.  Maybe he is a traitor, but if he is he doesn't know who they are.  MiX is playing like a team all of his own.  In a townie way though.  Knows what he is posting, knows people might find it scummy, but sticks to it because that is who he is.  I respect that.  And think it is townie.

Are we playing with the same MiX? Yikes.

I see a lot of similarities between my play and his, which makes me sympathetic to his cause.  And I feel like I understand where he is coming from, and it is a spot I have come from as town several times facing a lynch.  (I don't think he is in desperate trouble for a lynch though right now, is he?)

[2.71828.....]

EFHW because she claimed neighbor.

[2.71828.....]

EFHW because she claimed neighbor.

EFHW *next* because she claimed.   Words in my head vs. words I type.

[MiX]

Clearly a scum slip because scum!joth knows that there is scum in the neighborhood.

Hoping this is sarcasm. But yes, the theory hinges on there being scum in the neighborhood.

If you are that convinced that there is scum in the neighborhood, why haven't you said so?

I think you're misunderstanding me. I think what MiX did only makes sense in one scenario: MiX is scum and there's scum in the neighborhood. If there's not scum in the neighborhood, then I have no explanation for MiX's scumslip. So scum in the neighborhood follows from my case, not the other way around. Which makes it less relevant right now, because I think we lynch MiX first. If he flips scum, then we start looking for his partner in the neighborhood?

But also, I've said, or at least implied, several times that I think there's scum in the neighborhood based on everyone's reactions to the neighbor reveal and the claim plans. I can quote those posts if you like.

So you lynch me hoping that I flip scum so that the scumslip makes sense? Let's fast forward in time to D3 after I flip scum:

ss(?): Oh look, MiX was scum.

joth: See, this proves I was right about the scumslip! Let's lynch in the neighborhood!

And then town spends a bunch of time lynching in hood because in this scenario me and joth are obviously buddies and no scum's in hood. If I flip town:

ss(?): Oh look, MiX was town.

joth: See, lynching outside the hood was bad, just like I said! Let's lynch in the neighborgood!

And...you get my point.


Anyway, you're hoping to prove that the scumslip is correct after I flip, which just sounds wrong.

Here's one:

Apparently this was confusingly written, but TL;DR if there's scum in the neighborhood I'd expect some energy to be expended toward getting us to lynch outside the neighborhood, and in fact that is happening. More importantly, if there's no scum in the neighborhood I'd expect there to be more energy toward getting us to lynch in the neighborhood. Therefore, I think scum in the neighborhood is more likely.

From my perspective I see the complete opposite, because we're in opposing sides. So cleeeearly scum's NOT in neighborhood and you know that.

MiX - I do not see him as part of the normal scum team at all.  Maybe he is a traitor, but if he is he doesn't know who they are.  MiX is playing like a team all of his own.  In a townie way though.  Knows what he is posting, knows people might find it scummy, but sticks to it because that is who he is.  I respect that.  And think it is townie.

Are we playing with the same MiX? Yikes.

Apparently he's playing with SK!MiX, which is understandable, given it might be the last one he's seen.

PPE a bunch. Unvote

[silverspawn]

Clearly a scum slip because scum!joth knows that there is scum in the neighborhood.

Hoping this is sarcasm. But yes, the theory hinges on there being scum in the neighborhood.

I think the module that was online when I wrote that didn't really run on concepts like sarcasm. It was more like a witty response that popped into my head and I posted it without thinking.

I think it's about much of a scum slip as the Mix thing. Probably a bit more.

[silverspawn]

Apparently this was confusingly written, but TL;DR if there's scum in the neighborhood I'd expect some energy to be expended toward getting us to lynch outside the neighborhood, and in fact that is happening. More importantly, if there's no scum in the neighborhood I'd expect there to be more energy toward getting us to lynch in the neighborhood. Therefore, I think scum in the neighborhood is more likely

This is a good point, by the way.

[jotheonah]

Let's fast forward in time to D3 after I flip scum

Surely you'll admit this is a scumslip, right? /s

[Swowl]

To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today

No. That depends on the survivor. Some survivors don't just have winning as a goal, but would rather win with town.

So has everyone reached the "lynch outside the hood" scenario?

No no no. We lynch DatSwan or ash

Are you high? Even if you want to lynch inside the hood there is wayyyyyy more of a skum narrative for EFHW than either Ash or myself

Why does scum!EFHW out the neighborhood? I'm struggling to see the narrative there, but open to the possibility that I'm missing something obvious.

I am not saying that Skum!EFHW does it like every time... but look at it from the negative of Town!EFHW.

1) EFHW is Town - They out the hood. They did this because they think there is skum in the hood, so they are gonna want to lynch 1 of the other 2 players. Coolio. Except, EFHW knows the ratio right now (or as best they can) of Town:Skum.... So, she is essentially hinging the game on a a) Day 1 read that skum is in the Hood, followed by b) praying we get that skum player the first try, because c) even if we were to lynch once incorrectly.... we have no way of knowing if we still have a chance of finding skum in the hood at all still.


2) EFHW is Skum - They out the hood. They did this because of all the bad reasons listed in the "if EFHW is Town" scenario, as well as the working proven fact that it gives them town cred when it comes to "who is skummiest" in the Hood.


So yeah, not like proven cases by any means on alignment... but as it is only Day 2 I find it harder to believe that Town!EFHW would be risking the game on essentially a gut read, over this being a potential Skum!EFHW attempt to push a skum angle. And again... all of that factored in... I still would rather lynch outside.

[Swowl]

Apparently this was confusingly written, but TL;DR if there's scum in the neighborhood I'd expect some energy to be expended toward getting us to lynch outside the neighborhood, and in fact that is happening. More importantly, if there's no scum in the neighborhood I'd expect there to be more energy toward getting us to lynch in the neighborhood. Therefore, I think scum in the neighborhood is more likely

This is a good point, by the way.

It is a good point. Don't forget that the grain of salt that comes with it though - If this mindset is to be expected, then it is also expected to be planned before it happened. Just to say, if we think energy is not being pushed in the direction that makes sense, that is probably because it was discussed by skum prior to it happening (or hell they could even have day chat and being doing in stride).

[jotheonah]

MiX - I do not see him as part of the normal scum team at all.  Maybe he is a traitor, but if he is he doesn't know who they are.  MiX is playing like a team all of his own.  In a townie way though.  Knows what he is posting, knows people might find it scummy, but sticks to it because that is who he is.  I respect that.  And think it is townie.

Are we playing with the same MiX? Yikes.

Well, you have some OMGUS going for you.  I have the independent perspective having lurked this entire game.  Doesn't make my perspective any better/worse than yours, just different.

You can believe this or not, but I don't care AT ALL that MiX is voting for/has voted for me. Has nothing to do with my read or case on him.

[2.71828.....]

So, I could see EFHW as scum.  Nothing much to say about her D1, but then D2 let's look at this string of posts:

It seems to me extremely likely that scum would have chosen the neighbor option. Does anyone have a narrative where they might not have?

Ok, I'm home for the day and I've decided to claim. I am in the neighborhood. No one has taken issue with my PR argument and there's no other reason to withhold this information from town. There are three of us. I'll hold off on saying who, or they can.

@MiX, what is your question? We had a consensus on the vig.

That answers it. Did you propose that idea or had it in mind before N1?

I started with Glooble and joth. One person was hesitant about Glooble and suggested MiX. I didn't want MiX and brought up Eddie. There was consensus from there. The third neighbor didn't suggest or object to anyone. The ease of the consensus made me worry that Eddie was town, but I decided that a scum neighbor could be uncomfortable objecting to a partner. I also couldn't change the target on my own and didn't know the motivations of the non-scum neighbor.

Both felt strongly that we shouldn't claim. I didn't say anything one way or the other.

The way things happened made me concerned that there was indeed scum in the neighborhood and that is why I claimed.

I'm not saying names yet because I want to hear from town about whether they think scum was there.

I had a really great theory that didn't pan out. I thought if there was a survivor in the neighborhood they could claim and if there was scum, too, they would claim. The two of them would vig me and then survivor would ally with mafia.

ashersky not coming forward after I claimed and after the pr argument was negated without protest makes me think he doesn't want it known that he is in the neighborhood,  either.

I agree that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.  But I think people in this group would find the idea appealing.

DatSwan,  you keep criticizing me for claiming, but in the qt analysis you are referencing, you said (paraphrasing here) that in the case of scum in neighborhood, claiming is good. I felt there was a good chance of one of you being scum. I don't have a town read on ash, either. He feels more careful than usual.

Also, protecting prs is usually a high priority, but the prs in this game don't seem worth the importance you are giving them.

I'm sorry if you felt betrayed.  I carefully didn't actually promise or agree to anything in the qt. Sharing a qt feels like comraderie, but with unknown alignments it can't really be that.

We start with EFHW basically 100% convinced scum is in the neighborhood, then pushes for a neighborhood claim, throws some shade on fellow neighbors, then eventually says that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.

It just feels like EFHW is scum in the neighborhood who thought that claiming first would give her the extra town cred to push through a lynch against a fellow neighbor.

So let's just go vote: EFHW

and see how things develop

[Glooble]

e's making a lot of sense. So is Datswan.

I still think MiX is scummier, but that wagon's going nowhere so...

vote: EFHW

[Glooble]

To elaborate, I went to reread EFHW after Datswan's post because I wanted to see if her behavior was consistent with the narrative he proposed and it really kinda was. Then I went back to now and saw e's post and I didn't really have anything to add.

[silverspawn]

DatSwan ISO

– I hate the "could of" thing. Always have. Why are you doing this? 
– Traitor is a shit role. Not knowing mafia is an advantage because then they are basically town. Traitor knows mafia is a disadvantage for scum. I'm assuming scum didn't choose that option, so traitor doesn't know mafia, so they're impossible to find, so all traitor talk is useless. Seriously though traitor is such an awful role. /rant
–

E!

I don't think that operator is defined for integers, let alone rationals, let alone reals. But if it is, I'm interested to hear it.

I'll get to real points eventuallyell.

– I think DatSwan is town. Damn. Why is everyone town this game? 

– This is kind of hilarious to me because I did all this on-the-side sponteneous low informed random stuff and DatSwan is trying to take it really seriously. But they do reach the correct conclusion, which is nice.

– I continue to think that DatSwan's ISO posts read very genuine, although I am aware that he does these a lot and probably has good practice in fabricating them as scum. But nonetheless, I'm going to give town points for now (until they flip scum in a game where I gave town points and I conclude that it's NAI).

There's too much, I'll do the rest later.

[silverspawn]

We start with EFHW basically 100% convinced scum is in the neighborhood, then pushes for a neighborhood claim, throws some shade on fellow neighbors, then eventually says that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.

In my mind, the logical continuation to this sentence is, "That's obviously town play."

[silverspawn]

vote: ash

I am absolutely incapable of reading ash but DatSwan is towny and EFHW is very towny and I want to lynch within the neighborhood.

[2.71828.....]

We start with EFHW basically 100% convinced scum is in the neighborhood, then pushes for a neighborhood claim, throws some shade on fellow neighbors, then eventually says that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.

In my mind, the logical continuation to this sentence is, "That's obviously town play."

fair enough.  I think the logical conclusion is that EFHW came into the day knowing she wanted to pin a fellow neighbor as scum, which is a scum attitude not a town attitude.

[2.71828.....]

vote: ash

I am absolutely incapable of reading ash but DatSwan is towny and EFHW is very towny and I want to lynch within the neighborhood.

I should iso the other neighbors.  I will start with Ash.

[silverspawn]

I think it's just too chaotic to be scum play

[Glooble]

We start with EFHW basically 100% convinced scum is in the neighborhood, then pushes for a neighborhood claim, throws some shade on fellow neighbors, then eventually says that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.

In my mind, the logical continuation to this sentence is, "That's obviously town play."

fair enough.  I think the logical conclusion is that EFHW came into the day knowing she wanted to pin a fellow neighbor as scum, which is a scum attitude not a town attitude.

This is consistent with EFHWs behavior on Day 2...

but is it something scum would do, in this game, going into day 2? Or is it too much of a gambit for a scum team that is, objectively, in a pretty good position?

[Glooble]

If we have five scum, we're in MYLO (not true MYLO, I guess since PRs might interfere with the NK, but we don't even know which PRs we have so... mislynch is bad.) But scum doesn't actually know if the third party picked traitor, right? So in terms of whether of not we're in MYLO, the only player who knows that for sure is the third-party player, right?

[2.71828.....]

As for me as a person, I probably do come off as a grouchy old veteran more often than necessary. 

I think Ashersky sums up his game pretty well with this statement.  I don't know that it makes him scum, but it definitely doesn't clear him.  I think EFHW is far scummier if we are comparing members of the neighborhood (not having read datswan yet), but definitely scummier than MiX or Glooble.

[Glooble]

If mafia thinks the 5 v. 7 scenario is likely, then the "EFHW claims neighbor and tries to get ash or Swan lynched" theory makes a lot of sense. Because they need to ensure a mislynch, which means limiting the lynch candidates to a group that they know doesn't include the traitor. It also has the side effect of preventing the lynch from outing a power role, but if you think you can concievably win that night, who cares?

[jotheonah]

If mafia thinks the 5 v. 7 scenario is likely, then the "EFHW claims neighbor and tries to get ash or Swan lynched" theory makes a lot of sense. Because they need to ensure a mislynch, which means limiting the lynch candidates to a group that they know doesn't include the traitor. It also has the side effect of preventing the lynch from outing a power role, but if you think you can conceivably win that night, who cares?

This is also much more feasible if scum has daychat and can plan and coordinate on the fly.

[EFHW]

I think I laid my train of thought out pretty straightforwardly. Here it is laid out in one place, with some extra I didn't say before:

1. I went into N1 with no particular scum read on anyone, really.
2. I felt both ash and DatSwan behaved scummily in the qt.
     a. They both advocated against claiming, saying that claiming was scummy.
     b. They both expressed town reads of the rest of us.
     c. DatSwan didn't suggest or object to anyone.

3. I was of the personal opinion that scum would choose neighbor and that ash would absolutely choose survivor neighbor as third party. Doesn't mean that ash is neighbor, of course, but I really did expect there to be scum in the neighborhood.
4. I have recently misread DatSwan as scummy when he was town. So I wanted to be cautious and see if other town people thought what he did sounded scummy, before they knew who did it.

[EFHW]

Accidental post

d. I thought the pr argument for not claiming was really weak and was surprised ash went along with it. They both seemed like they didn't want everyone to know they were there.

3. *doesn't mean ash is survivor

5. I said I didn't like the pr argument and waited 12 hours. No one argued. silver independently made the same argument. So I claimed. Given that silver was ready to identify all the prs and a couple people were agreeing, I think I am not alone in finding the "protect the pr's" argument weak.
6. I never said what I thought should happen. I said I thought town should have the information.
7. DatSwan has been quite aggressive towards me both before and after I said his name.
8. ash has been not gruff, not crotchety, polite and careful. Not his town meta.

[EFHW]

We start with EFHW basically 100% convinced scum is in the neighborhood, then pushes for a neighborhood claim, throws some shade on fellow neighbors, then eventually says that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.

In my mind, the logical continuation to this sentence is, "That's obviously town play."

fair enough.  I think the logical conclusion is that EFHW came into the day knowing she wanted to pin a fellow neighbor as scum, which is a scum attitude not a town attitude.

I had the plan to claim coming in. Not a surprise, since it was a reaction to events during N1. I wasn't sure what to do with the information I had and wanted town to have the information. I didn't have a desire to lynch a neighbor no matter what.

Where did I say choosing a neighbor is a mistake? I don't remember saying anything like this.

[Glooble]

1. I went into N1 with no particular scum read on anyone, really.

If you didn’t have any particular scum reads, why did you suggest vig-killing me and joth?

[Glooble]

We start with EFHW basically 100% convinced scum is in the neighborhood, then pushes for a neighborhood claim, throws some shade on fellow neighbors, then eventually says that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.

In my mind, the logical continuation to this sentence is, "That's obviously town play."

fair enough.  I think the logical conclusion is that EFHW came into the day knowing she wanted to pin a fellow neighbor as scum, which is a scum attitude not a town attitude.

I had the plan to claim coming in. Not a surprise, since it was a reaction to events during N1. I wasn't sure what to do with the information I had and wanted town to have the information. I didn't have a desire to lynch a neighbor no matter what.

Where did I say choosing a neighbor is a mistake? I don't remember saying anything like this.

I agree that choosing neighbor is probably a mistake.  But I think people in this group would find the idea appealing.

[pingpongsam]

Damn. Why is everyone town this game? 

That happens to scum who know town is town and don’t want to implicate their partners.

[EFHW]

1. I went into N1 with no particular scum read on anyone, really.

If you didn’t have any particular scum reads, why did you suggest vig-killing me and joth?

I was looking for reactions. I had a weak scumread on you, and other people had been making noises about joth.

[EFHW]

Oh, choosing neighbor in the first place. I thought you meant lynching within the neighborhood.  Yes, I realized during the day today that scum neighbor was not as desirable as I had assumed at first.

[ashersky]

I find the stance that multiple players are taking on the "protecting PRs" argument perplexing.

The setup is lopsided against town if we think of this in a vanilla fashion (goons vs. VTs).  Scum has 4-5 players with no way of being outed (anymore).  Our literal only hope is for a PGO to pick one off for us, if we even got a PGO.  Even then, scum could have gotten a PGO too and use that against us.

Outed neighbors are VTs with a QT.  The argument can be made (and was made) that if scum is in the neighborhood, they already know this, so there's no harm in publicly announcing it.  The counterargument was made that there was also a chance scum is not in the neighborhood, and claiming provided them that information separately.

I don't really care so much about it being known that I, specifically, am a neighbor.  I am somewhat annoyed that in the case that both of you are town, EFHW unwittingly told scum information they wanted, either to not target us to PR hunt or to definitely target us to PGO dodge.

The phrase "protect the PRs" doesn't necessarily mean keep them from being killed.  It just means keep their identity as secret as possible, including by limiting POE.  Now, three scum know to hunt from a limited number of town players and who are safe to kill.  In a game that may possibly be decided tonight, that's a terrible, terrible thing.

So yes, I argued against claiming last night, and continue to argue that I was 10000000% correct.  It's all moot, though, because players will do what they want, based on their own win conditions and beliefs.

She was completely right about one thing -- the neighborhood may have felt like a place of camaraderie, but it definitely turned out not to be.

[jotheonah]

Well that felt extremely performative.

vote: ash

[Swowl]

@ EFHW - What was your opinion on my idea of how to select who carried out the vig? If I didn't bring it up, who would of you wanted to carry the vig?

[Swowl]

I see only upsides to bringing this out, if it hasn't been already:

The Hood randomized who would carry out the vig shot by all of us selecting "self targets Eddie" after Eddie was agreed upon.

We do not know who actually carried out the shot.

[Swowl]

vote: ash

I am absolutely incapable of reading ash but DatSwan is towny and EFHW is very towny and I want to lynch within the neighborhood.

in an alternate reality where you had to pick someone not in the Hood - who are like your top-whatever #?

Also, if we lynch ash, and ash flips town. What is your game plan? You think I am towny and EFHW is super towny... so then we lynch ash and its just like "oh well, I guess Swan was right, there is no skum?" or is it more "EFHW is townier than Swan, so Swan must be skum"?

There is a mild amount of sarcasm in the above question, I do not expect you as any alignment to actually answer it truthfully - but on the chance you are town just making a mistake, I would request you consider the repercussions put forth in the scenario where all of the hood is town.

[Swowl]

If we have five scum, we're in MYLO (not true MYLO, I guess since PRs might interfere with the NK, but we don't even know which PRs we have so... mislynch is bad.) But scum doesn't actually know if the third party picked traitor, right? So in terms of whether of not we're in MYLO, the only player who knows that for sure is the third-party player, right?

To this point it should be noted how much the "inside the hood" pool is being looked at.

From a Skum PoV, the options of the Hood Players are:

1) All Town - So, that is just an obv win for Skum, they would always want to push that case.

2) Town -  Town - Skum - Isolate the lynch pool to people inside the Hood. Assuming Traitor knows Mafia, that is 3 votes of the 6 needed to lynch that can be maneuvered against a Skum lynch. (only 3 of 6 bc if third party picked traitor it is stated they will not know skum)

2) Town - Town - Survivor - Another obv win for skum. They know they have 100% non-Skum lynch if the lynch is in the Hood. Add in the discourse it could supply for future mislynches, yeah that is a pretty good play.

3) Town - Skum - Survivor - Isolate the lynch pool to people inside the Hood. Assuming Traitor knows Mafia that is 3 votes of the 6 needed to lynch that can be maneuvered against a Skum lynch. Then add in a Survivor, who wouldn't actually care if Town got lynched at this point. Then add in if they are worried about a Survivor being in the hood they def don't want to shoot there if skum is in the Hood. so they want a 50-50 lynch to try to get rid of that player.


So alllll of that is skum pov. and I think it is true and I stand by it. I do not know for certain if there is skum or not in the hood. But I do know that the Hood is now known and it is not going anywhere.
So like...

Today(a) - we can lynch in the hood having 0% of finding skum, or we can lynch outside and have a minimum of a 57% of finding some form of skum.
Today(b) - we can lynch in the hood having a 33% of finding skum, or we can lynch outside and have a minimum of a 42% chance of finding some form of skum.

Day3(a) - we can continue to lynch in the hood having a 0% of finding skum, or we can lynch outside the hood having essentially the same odds of finding skum as the day before.
Day3(b) - we found skum Day 1, awesome... amazing... miracle of RnG.... We will wake up with 1 IC and be able to lynch the outside pool with a minimum of a 42% chance of skum.
Day3(c) - we didn't find skum Day 1. Do we take the 50-50 vs 0% chance on the Hood pool, or do we take the 42% vs  57% chance on the outside?


It all starts with the fact that even if skum is inside the Hood there is still only a 33% chance of hitting skum. And honestly, from that point forward... we are kind of screwed if we dont find skum. So, for the love of whatever... why do we want to take a 0%-33% leading to a 0%-50% chance, rather than taking a 42%-57% chance right the hell now? We DO NOT KNOW skum is in the Hood, but we sure as hell know that skum is OUTSIDE the Hood. I seriously just don't even get the push back on this.

[Swowl]

Also, it doesn't even matter what the third party player knows.

1) They are Traitor - So skum, so it doesn't matter.

2) Survivor - This is the swing day based on numbers, they will do whatever is best. so it doesn't matter.

3) Researcher - This one I guess matters. I have not checked, but assuming that Neighbors don't count as a PR they would probably want to push outside the pool.

4) SK - They just want to live, so it doesn't matter. They will say whatever suits them at this point.


If we get a Third Party flip, it matters. Right now, it is a distraction.

[Swowl]

PPS. GK, Pubby - want to chime in at all?

[silverspawn]

Where are you getting the 42% number from?

[ashersky]

I see only upsides to bringing this out, if it hasn't been already:

The Hood randomized who would carry out the vig shot by all of us selecting "self targets Eddie" after Eddie was agreed upon.

We do not know who actually carried out the shot.

You might have mentioned whose idea the randomization was. Objectively it was a towny idea, given we all equally shared the risk.

[pubby]

PPS. GK, Pubby - want to chime in at all?

I've mostly been skimming. EFHW seems super towny. e seems mildly suspicious and joth, ash, MiX are still solid lynch votes.

Not really following the neighborhood strategy. Like this for example:

1) All Town - So, that is just an obv win for Skum, they would always want to push that case.

Can someone explain this I'm confused.

[silverspawn]

Stop skimming and start reading.

[faust]

Vote Count 2.5

jotheonah (1): gkrieg13
mcmcsalot (1): DatSwan
ashersky (3): pubby, silverspawn, jtoheonah
EFHW (2): 2.71828....., Glooble

Not Voting (5): mcmcsalot, EFHW, ashersky, pingpongsam, MiX

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on June 19, 2019, 10:10:00 am, in about 29 hours.

[pingpongsam]

Null to scum on joth. Would vote. Will not vote inside the hood. Scum points for everyone supporting that.

[jotheonah]

The phony math in DatSwan’s argument is the implicit assumption that scum in the hood and no scum in the hood are equally likely. So when you say “why would we pick 33% OR 42% over 0% or whatever percent” that makes sense in a world where we have no idea whether there’s scum.

But that’s just lazy, just like all probability arguments are lazy, because we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not there’a scum in the hood, just like we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not someone is scum. We’re not choosing at random.

At the end of the day, I don’t care if we lynch inside or outside. We win by lynching the scummiest player. I still think that’s MiX, who made a blatant scumslip. But I also think that pst ost by Ash was an over the top appeal to emotion that screams scum. I mean look at that last sentence for crying out loud, it’s like a bad TV lawyer.

So both my top scumreads are consistent with a scum-in-the-hood theory. EFHW has her own reasons for thinking there’s scum in the hood and, again, they are better and more solid than brimless math.

[jotheonah]

*brainless math

[ashersky]

If it was an appeal to emotion, it clearly worked, since you seemed to have been moved by it.  Don't blame your emotional fickleness on me, though.

(Ironically, or not, your appeal to emotion attack is, in an of itself, an appeal to emotion attack.  So it's at least a well-played meta joke, which I can appreciate.)

(A second ironic point, of course, is joth's propensity for over-the-top emotional exasperation at the play of certain players, or the actions and words of others.  See basically any previous game with MiX for examples.)

[jotheonah]

Why are we not talking about the fact that, if we're in a 5-scum situation, we literally need every town player to vote as a block to hit scum without bussing? Conversely, scum only needs two townies to be on a wagon on town together before they can all jump on it. And if they picked daychat, then 3/5 of them can coordinate a quick hammer. Geeze, this setup is rough. I don't think I've been fully comprehending what a rough spot we're in. And if we mislynch today, we could be at 5 town-5 scum tomorrow, so we might be in MyLo right now.

[MiX]

Why are we not talking about the fact that, if we're in a 5-scum situation, we literally need every town player to vote as a block to hit scum without bussing? Conversely, scum only needs two townies to be on a wagon on town together before they can all jump on it. And if they picked daychat, then 3/5 of them can coordinate a quick hammer. Geeze, this setup is rough. I don't think I've been fully comprehending what a rough spot we're in. And if we mislynch today, we could be at 5 town-5 scum tomorrow, so we might be in MyLo right now.

And then it hit him: that one post MiX made about the setup D1 made sense. And it was important. And why did I get town this game. And how can third-party traitor coordinate? Why are we in a terrible position? Why are we lynching inside the neighbor when we have much better odds outside? Why is Glooble town? Why is pubby town? Why is mcmc not dead yet?

Vote: mcmc

[gkrieg13]

Why are we not talking about the fact that, if we're in a 5-scum situation, we literally need every town player to vote as a block to hit scum without bussing? Conversely, scum only needs two townies to be on a wagon on town together before they can all jump on it. And if they picked daychat, then 3/5 of them can coordinate a quick hammer. Geeze, this setup is rough. I don't think I've been fully comprehending what a rough spot we're in. And if we mislynch today, we could be at 5 town-5 scum tomorrow, so we might be in MyLo right now.

Yet I was somehow scummy for bringing this up D1

[Glooble]

Why are we not talking about the fact that, if we're in a 5-scum situation, we literally need every town player to vote as a block to hit scum without bussing? Conversely, scum only needs two townies to be on a wagon on town together before they can all jump on it. And if they picked daychat, then 3/5 of them can coordinate a quick hammer. Geeze, this setup is rough. I don't think I've been fully comprehending what a rough spot we're in. And if we mislynch today, we could be at 5 town-5 scum tomorrow, so we might be in MyLo right now.

Yet I was somehow scummy for bringing this up D1

Not to all of us... but yeah let's maybe look at some of the players who kept saying "setup talk is bad" without any nuance. I'll note just from memory that one of those was silverspawn.

[ashersky]

Why are we not talking about the fact that, if we're in a 5-scum situation, we literally need every town player to vote as a block to hit scum without bussing? Conversely, scum only needs two townies to be on a wagon on town together before they can all jump on it. And if they picked daychat, then 3/5 of them can coordinate a quick hammer. Geeze, this setup is rough. I don't think I've been fully comprehending what a rough spot we're in. And if we mislynch today, we could be at 5 town-5 scum tomorrow, so we might be in MyLo right now.

It's been mentioned.  No one seems worried.

[Glooble]

I'm worried! especially at T-23 hours.

[Glooble]

vote: gkrieg this is the kind of setup comment that can't possibly be good for town

This was in response to gkrieg's assertion that scum could theoretically win night 1. I questioned it here:

vote: gkrieg this is the kind of setup comment that can't possibly be good for town

Sorry, but why not? What exactly is wrong with making sure town is aware of how much or little time we might have, and how much leeway there is for making mistakes? I understand the underlying reason for not discussing the setup, but this seems like an exception to me. It's quite likely I'm missing something though. So if you can tell me why you think this particular line of questioning is anti-town I'd love to hear it.

That being said, if there's some reason why even explaining that is anti-town then please do not explain and I will abide by the consensus.

And silver never responded to me.

Ash and DatSwan then come in saying setup talk isn't bad per se and clarifying what specific types of setup talk are bad. Town points for both.

It seems to me like silverspawn was trying to shut down discussion that would actually have been very helpful for town, and when I asked him why he just kind of ignored me. Then day 2 he pushes for a mass claim (which as ash points out, could allow scum to avoid the PGO, which is one of the few ways town could survive another night in thew 5 v 7 scenario) then he really, really wants to lynch inside the neighborhood (which prevents the lynch from hitting the traitor, another way town could buy themselves an extra day.) And he excludes EFHW from the lynch pool.

vote: silverspawn

This is where we want to be if we're lynching off-wagon.

[jotheonah]

In the interest of consolidating around a lynch in the next 23 hours, vote: silverspawn

And ok, apparently people have been talking about this but at a level that I just sort of filtered out because it seemed like boring mathy setup talk, so I guess that's on me.

I hate to be the one to say it but, if we don't have broad consensus, is there any value in no lynch here? If we're at 7-5 now, that guarantees we don't lose tonight, and gives us a slightly smaller pool to choose from tomorrow and slightly more information.

[silverspawn]

thinking math arguments are lazy is mostly just a symptom of being overconfident in one's ability to read people and/or misunderstanding how updating on evidence works

[silverspawn]

vote: gkrieg this is the kind of setup comment that can't possibly be good for town

This was in response to gkrieg's assertion that scum could theoretically win night 1. I questioned it here:

vote: gkrieg this is the kind of setup comment that can't possibly be good for town

Sorry, but why not? What exactly is wrong with making sure town is aware of how much or little time we might have, and how much leeway there is for making mistakes? I understand the underlying reason for not discussing the setup, but this seems like an exception to me. It's quite likely I'm missing something though. So if you can tell me why you think this particular line of questioning is anti-town I'd love to hear it.

That being said, if there's some reason why even explaining that is anti-town then please do not explain and I will abide by the consensus.

And silver never responded to me.

Ash and DatSwan then come in saying setup talk isn't bad per se and clarifying what specific types of setup talk are bad. Town points for both.

It seems to me like silverspawn was trying to shut down discussion that would actually have been very helpful for town, and when I asked him why he just kind of ignored me. Then day 2 he pushes for a mass claim (which as ash points out, could allow scum to avoid the PGO, which is one of the few ways town could survive another night in thew 5 v 7 scenario) then he really, really wants to lynch inside the neighborhood (which prevents the lynch from hitting the traitor, another way town could buy themselves an extra day.) And he excludes EFHW from the lynch pool.

The reason I ignored you is that I concluded that setup discussion day 1 was anti town, and if I engage in a discussion about why that is, that's most likely going to lead to setup discussion (because then I have to explain why it's anti town).

I did not think particularly hard about why it's anti town. What I quickly realized was that there was no way we would ever do anything special based on the setup on day 1. Claiming on day 1 is bad, neighborhood discussion is bad, etc. All setup discussion that is helpful for town on day 1 is equally helpful on day 2. (Please either find a counterexample or acknowledge that there was no reason to discuss the setup on day 1.) Lots of setup discussion, like neighborhood claims, are only helpful on day 2. And as you can observe, I wasn't at all opposed to doing setup stuff on day 2. In fact I proposed the massclaim – which we should do.

which as ash points out, could allow scum to avoid the PGO

I was proposing a VT / non-VT claim. If scum avoids the PGO it means they're not targeting a non-VT, which means there is no downside to claiming, which means claiming was trivially correct.

And he excludes EFHW from the lynch pool.

What kind of complaint even is that? There's a player I'm townreading and therefore I'm scummy?

[silverspawn]

I remember now how it feels to get upset about crappy cases.

[Glooble]

That specific comment from gkrieg, the one you voted for him over, was a setup comment that was helpful for day 1 though. Since the worst-case scenario for town was predicated on the actions of town players (mainly the PGO if we have one, but also really any player who might theoretically target another player D1) knowing about that scenario allowed those players to make informed decisions about whether to use their shots night 1. I did not see that possibility until ash pointed it out (hence my argument with gkrieg.)

[silverspawn]

Assuming that there is 4 scum total and one in the neighborhood –which is the best case for lynching in-neighborhood – it is indeed true that the prior chance to hit scum when lynching inside is slightly worse than that of hitting scum when lynching outside, from my PoV. There are 12 players left, 3 in the neighborhood, 9 outside, 8 of them aren't me. So outside it's 3/8 and inside it's 1/3 = 3/9, which is lower. The reason why I want to lynch inside anway is threefold

a) most people have been pushing for a lynch outside, which is a sign that scum is inside

b) I strongly townread EFHW and townread DatSwan which makes for excellent PoE.

c) This is the most important point: if we lynch scum in the neighborhood, we create 2 ICs. If we lynch scum outside the neighborhood, we create 0 ICs. Creating 2 ICs is super awesome. If scum targets them, great, they're not targeting PRs. If scum does not target them, great, we have 2 ICs.

The fact that we're in a tough spot should be an argument to do high risk play.

[jotheonah]

thinking math arguments are lazy is mostly just a symptom of being overconfident in one's ability to read people and/or misunderstanding how updating on evidence works

Arguments that rely primarily or exclusively on math are lazy.

[silverspawn]

That specific comment from gkrieg, the one you voted for him over so early that it would be asinine to take it seriously was a setup comment that was helpful for day 1 though. Since the worst-case scenario for town was predicated on the actions of town players (mainly the PGO if we have one, but also really any player who might theoretically target another player D1) knowing about that scenario allowed those players to make informed decisions about whether to use their shots night 1. I did not see that possibility until ash pointed it out (hence my argument with gkrieg.)

Aside from my red edit, sure, that makes sense. I didn't think that far when I made the reply.

[silverspawn]

thinking math arguments are lazy is mostly just a symptom of being overconfident in one's ability to read people and/or misunderstanding how updating on evidence works

Arguments that rely primarily or exclusively on math are lazy.

I mean, you can call them lazy if you want, but if you trust reads – which we know are extremely unreliable – over strong math evidence, then you're just playing bad. That is a fact. If something has like 4:1 odds then the correct play is to throw your reads out the window.

In this case, the math only gives fairly mild evidence so it doesn't apply, but in past games it has, and afaik there was only one example of the math being wrong.

[Glooble]

That specific comment from gkrieg, the one you voted for him over so early that it would be asinine to take it seriously was a setup comment that was helpful for day 1 though. Since the worst-case scenario for town was predicated on the actions of town players (mainly the PGO if we have one, but also really any player who might theoretically target another player D1) knowing about that scenario allowed those players to make informed decisions about whether to use their shots night 1. I did not see that possibility until ash pointed it out (hence my argument with gkrieg.)

Aside from my red edit, sure, that makes sense. I didn't think that far when I made the reply.

So you're acknowledging that the comment that you yourself said "Couldn't possibly be good for town" as actually good for town?

[Glooble]

I'm curious as to why you're townreading DatSwan but scumreading ash? Just because on the whole they read very similar to me.

[gkrieg13]

Assuming that there is 4 scum total and one in the neighborhood –which is the best case for lynching in-neighborhood – it is indeed true that the prior chance to hit scum when lynching inside is slightly worse than that of hitting scum when lynching outside, from my PoV. There are 12 players left, 3 in the neighborhood, 9 outside, 8 of them aren't me. So outside it's 3/8 and inside it's 1/3 = 3/9, which is lower. The reason why I want to lynch inside anway is threefold

a) most people have been pushing for a lynch outside, which is a sign that scum is inside

b) I strongly townread EFHW and townread DatSwan which makes for excellent PoE.

c) This is the most important point: if we lynch scum in the neighborhood, we create 2 ICs. If we lynch scum outside the neighborhood, we create 0 ICs. Creating 2 ICs is super awesome. If scum targets them, great, they're not targeting PRs. If scum does not target them, great, we have 2 ICs.

The fact that we're in a tough spot should be an argument to do high risk play.

But we don't really make 2 ICs, we probably make 1 IC with the other being dead. There is also a chance that scum is not in the neighborhood, which would mean that the higher chances of you hitting scum outside the neighborhood combined with there being a chance that there are 4 scum outside the neighborhood makes it a higher chance we hit scum outside the neighborhood.

I also don't have a strong scum read inside the neighborhood, which points me to thinking there might not be scum in the neighborhood.

[Glooble]

I've said all of this already in smaller pieces, but I feel like I need to lay it all out.

I think there's scum in the neighborhood. I think it's EFHW, and I think one of her partners is silverspawn.

I think the reason she outed the neighborhood was so her partner could push for a lynch in the neighborhood and she would look towny for having outed them. Why does scum do this? Because they don't know who the traitor is, and they absolutely need to not lynch the traitor if they want to win today.

What could keep them from winning other than accidentally getting the traitor lynched? Having their kill stopped. A PR/ not PR claim, as silverspawn suggested, lets them 1. avoid the PGO, and 2. have much better POE if they have a roleblocker (to block the rolestopper, the only other role that could prevent their victory.)

[MiX]

Not in hood: Glooble/pubby/mcmc/gkrieg/pps/ss/e/joth/(MiX)

Not lynching today: Glooble/gkrieg

Nully I guess: pps/joth/e (got townier I think)

Scummy: mcmc/ss/pubby?


I'm looking at lynching ss or mcmc today, I think. Reads today have been terrible with me scumreading Glooble all day for things...well...that his town self does. Sadly it's true, what I was scumreading him for is normal Glooble and the rest's town Glooble. I don't like it but it's true. I wish Glooble had a different meta because I keep finding them scummy when they're town.

I'll sheep pretty much any case. Feeling somewhat useless today. How long do we have to deadline?

[gkrieg13]

I've said all of this already in smaller pieces, but I feel like I need to lay it all out.

I think there's scum in the neighborhood. I think it's EFHW, and I think one of her partners is silverspawn.

I think the reason she outed the neighborhood was so her partner could push for a lynch in the neighborhood and she would look towny for having outed them. Why does scum do this? Because they don't know who the traitor is, and they absolutely need to not lynch the traitor if they want to win today.

What could keep them from winning other than accidentally getting the traitor lynched? Having their kill stopped. A PR/ not PR claim, as silverspawn suggested, lets them 1. avoid the PGO, and 2. have much better POE if they have a roleblocker (to block the rolestopper, the only other role that could prevent their victory.)

This is possible. I think you mixed up who gets roleblocker and rolestopper?

[Glooble]

I did misread slightly. Mafia can have either, but it looks like town only gets roleblocker.

[gkrieg13]

I've said all of this already in smaller pieces, but I feel like I need to lay it all out.

I think there's scum in the neighborhood. I think it's EFHW, and I think one of her partners is silverspawn.

I think the reason she outed the neighborhood was so her partner could push for a lynch in the neighborhood and she would look towny for having outed them. Why does scum do this? Because they don't know who the traitor is, and they absolutely need to not lynch the traitor if they want to win today.

What could keep them from winning other than accidentally getting the traitor lynched? Having their kill stopped. A PR/ not PR claim, as silverspawn suggested, lets them 1. avoid the PGO, and 2. have much better POE if they have a roleblocker (to block the rolestopper, the only other role that could prevent their victory.)

Thinking more about this. My problem with it is that I find EFHW very townie, and I feel like I normally read EFHW pretty well. She doesn't seem calculated like she does when she is scum.

[gkrieg13]

unvote

I think the twins are town.

[Glooble]

I've said all of this already in smaller pieces, but I feel like I need to lay it all out.

I think there's scum in the neighborhood. I think it's EFHW, and I think one of her partners is silverspawn.

I think the reason she outed the neighborhood was so her partner could push for a lynch in the neighborhood and she would look towny for having outed them. Why does scum do this? Because they don't know who the traitor is, and they absolutely need to not lynch the traitor if they want to win today.

What could keep them from winning other than accidentally getting the traitor lynched? Having their kill stopped. A PR/ not PR claim, as silverspawn suggested, lets them 1. avoid the PGO, and 2. have much better POE if they have a roleblocker (to block the rolestopper, the only other role that could prevent their victory.)

Thinking more about this. My problem with it is that I find EFHW very townie, and I feel like I normally read EFHW pretty well. She doesn't seem calculated like she does when she is scum.

Even if EFHW is town, scum!silverspawn could still have latched onto the "lynch in the hood" plan for the reasons I specified. In fact if the hood *is* all town, scum know this, and pushing for a hood lynch is an even better plan for them.

[silverspawn]

That specific comment from gkrieg, the one you voted for him over so early that it would be asinine to take it seriously was a setup comment that was helpful for day 1 though. Since the worst-case scenario for town was predicated on the actions of town players (mainly the PGO if we have one, but also really any player who might theoretically target another player D1) knowing about that scenario allowed those players to make informed decisions about whether to use their shots night 1. I did not see that possibility until ash pointed it out (hence my argument with gkrieg.)

Aside from my red edit, sure, that makes sense. I didn't think that far when I made the reply.

So you're acknowledging that the comment that you yourself said "Couldn't possibly be good for town" as actually good for town?

Yes.

[silverspawn]

But we don't really make 2 ICs, we probably make 1 IC with the other being dead.

If the IC is being killed it has been useful because it prevented the death of a PR. I've said this in my post. If you want then the utility of the IC is decreased to the expected power of whatever other person mafia would kill. But it doesn't go to zero.

[silverspawn]

avoid the PGO

Please stop saying that. If mafia avoid the PGO then it means they don't kill a PR in which case we get the entire benefit of claming without the downsides (other than mafia avoiding the PGO). In that scenario, it's obvious that a claim is worth it.

[Glooble]

avoid the PGO

Please stop saying that. If mafia avoid the PGO then it means they don't kill a PR in which case we get the entire benefit of claming without the downsides (other than mafia avoiding the PGO). In that scenario, it's obvious that a claim is worth it.

Power roles don't matter if we've already lost the game.

[silverspawn]

Even if EFHW is town, scum!silverspawn could still have latched onto the "lynch in the hood" plan for the reasons I specified. In fact if the hood *is* all town, scum know this, and pushing for a hood lynch is an even better plan for them.

Is there anything at all that makes advocating for an in-neighborhood lynch different from generically advocating for a mislynch? I obviously want to lynch in-neighborhood after it's clear that the claim isn't happening, so those things aren't related.

[silverspawn]

avoid the PGO

Please stop saying that. If mafia avoid the PGO then it means they don't kill a PR in which case we get the entire benefit of claming without the downsides (other than mafia avoiding the PGO). In that scenario, it's obvious that a claim is worth it.

Power roles don't matter if we've already lost the game.

If you think PRs aren't important, then we should VT / nonVT claim immediately. The claim improves our chances of lynching scum at the cost of losing PRs.

[jotheonah]

avoid the PGO

Please stop saying that. If mafia avoid the PGO then it means they don't kill a PR in which case we get the entire benefit of claming without the downsides (other than mafia avoiding the PGO). In that scenario, it's obvious that a claim is worth it.

Power roles don't matter if we've already lost the game.

If you think PRs aren't important, then we should VT / nonVT claim immediately. The claim improves our chances of lynching scum at the cost of losing PRs.

The PGO is a power role that can only do its thing if it's not known by scum. It's also one of our most powerful PRs.

[silverspawn]

I hate to be the one to say it but, if we don't have broad consensus, is there any value in no lynch here? If we're at 7-5 now, that guarantees we don't lose tonight, and gives us a slightly smaller pool to choose from tomorrow and slightly more information.

The downside of a no-lynch is that we lose a lynch in case of a) town stopping the NK via roleblock or b) the PGO killing someone

[silverspawn]

The PGO is a power role that can only do its thing if it's not known by scum. It's also one of our most powerful PRs.

So let me summarize your position

– If we all claimed VT / non-VT, then scum would deliberately kill a VT because the danger of hitting the PGO is so great that it isn't worth taking the risk and lynching a VT is preferable
– Therefore, if mafia did target a PR tonight, it would be a good thing for us
– Even though a claim would not put any PR in danger due to the above, the downside of scum being able to avoid the PGO and kill a VT instead is, by itself, so great that it outweighs all benefits of a claim.

Is that correct?

[silverspawn]

where "lynching" in the first point should be "killing"

[Glooble]

Even if EFHW is town, scum!silverspawn could still have latched onto the "lynch in the hood" plan for the reasons I specified. In fact if the hood *is* all town, scum know this, and pushing for a hood lynch is an even better plan for them.

Is there anything at all that makes advocating for an in-neighborhood lynch different from generically advocating for a mislynch? I obviously want to lynch in-neighborhood after it's clear that the claim isn't happening, so those things aren't related.

Yes there is. If the scum don't know who the traitor is, they might accidentally lynch them. But they know for certain that the traitor isn't in the neighborhood.

[silverspawn]

Yes there is. If the scum don't know who the traitor is, they might accidentally lynch them. But they know for certain that the traitor isn't in the neighborhood.

Ah right, I forgot about the traitor. Fair enough.

[Glooble]

The PGO is a power role that can only do its thing if it's not known by scum. It's also one of our most powerful PRs.

So let me summarize your position

– If we all claimed VT / non-VT, then scum would deliberately kill a VT because the danger of hitting the PGO is so great that it isn't worth taking the risk and lynching a VT is preferable
– Therefore, if mafia did target a PR tonight, it would be a good thing for us
– Even though a claim would not put any PR in danger due to the above, the downside of scum being able to avoid the PGO and kill a VT instead is, by itself, so great that it outweighs all benefits of a claim.

Is that correct?

No it's not correct. I don't know how to make this clearer. If we claim PR/ not PR, scum can NK from the not PR group, thereby making them much more likely to have their kill go through. If we mislynch and we have a traitor or a survivor, that's probably game. The fact that they didn't kill any of our PRs in this scenario is completely irrelevant, because they just win.

[Glooble]

And this, incidentally, is why I think your shutting down of gkrieg's setup discussion was so scummy. All of your arguments would be completely sensible if we weren't potentially in MYLO. So it makes total sense for you, as scum, to encourage the town to think we have more time and more leeway then we actually have.

[silverspawn]

No it's not correct. I don't know how to make this clearer. If we claim PR/ not PR, scum can NK from the not PR group, thereby making them much more likely to have their kill go through.

This is what I said. So what about what I said isn't your position?

[Glooble]

Ok, sorry I misread. You basically have it right.

[Glooble]

I had another point about the potential for a scum roleblocker to target more effectively, but that doesn't actually make any sense since if they targeted from the claimed PR group they'd just risk hitting the PGO too.

[Glooble]

Where are the other 8 people in this town?

[MiX]

Where are the other 8 people in this town?

I'm thinking you just told traitor/third-party what to claim. Although you've been doing this for quite some time several times. Why? Is it so important that ss understands your setup talk?

[silverspawn]

Ok, sorry I misread. You basically have it right.

Ok, well you get town points for thinking something so weird.

[EFHW]

vote: ashersky

[silverspawn]

Let's get real for a moment though. I strongly suspect that mafia would kill among the non-VT claims if we did claim, because the risk of hitting the PGO is pretty small. I hope that most of you who oppose the claim did so because scum would just hit a PR anyway, and that you would support the massclaim if you knew that they rather kill a VT. In fact, if you think that it's a close call, then we definitely should have claimed. It's too late now, though.

The theory that I advocated for a massclaim so that mafia could kill a vT is absurd. I mean cmon.

[Glooble]

It's counterintuitive, but it's not absurd. It makes perfect sense if you're mafia and you plan on winning tonight.

[2.71828.....]

well, I didn't reread as much as I wanted prior to the day ending, and I will not be around tomorrow at deadline while at work.

I will be able to check in at lunch (about 3 hours before deadline) but I am comfortable with my EFHW vote for now.

[Glooble]

well, I didn't reread as much as I wanted prior to the day ending, and I will not be around tomorrow at deadline while at work.

I will be able to check in at lunch (about 3 hours before deadline) but I am comfortable with my EFHW vote for now.

Any thoughts on my silverspawn theory?

[Swowl]

The phony math in DatSwan’s argument is the implicit assumption that scum in the hood and no scum in the hood are equally likely. So when you say “why would we pick 33% OR 42% over 0% or whatever percent” that makes sense in a world where we have no idea whether there’s scum.

But that’s just lazy, just like all probability arguments are lazy, because we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not there’a scum in the hood, just like we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not someone is scum. We’re not choosing at random.

At the end of the day, I don’t care if we lynch inside or outside. We win by lynching the scummiest player. I still think that’s MiX, who made a blatant scumslip. But I also think that pst ost by Ash was an over the top appeal to emotion that screams scum. I mean look at that last sentence for crying out loud, it’s like a bad TV lawyer.

So both my top scumreads are consistent with a scum-in-the-hood theory. EFHW has her own reasons for thinking there’s scum in the hood and, again, they are better and more solid than brimless math.

So it is not brainless, it actually goes over literally all of the ranges based on all the potential set ups we could be in. If you mean it is brainless, as in so obvious anyone could do it, that is fair... but it’s purpose was to focus on the fact that there is never a 0% chance of finding skum outside the hood, but there is that possibility if we lynch inside the hood.

[Swowl]

Where are you getting the 42% number from?

2 skum plus 1 traitor = 3/7 = 42.8%

[silverspawn]

Where are you getting the 42% number from?

2 skum plus 1 traitor = 3/7 = 42.8%

But there are 9 people outside of the neighborhood, so 8 others, so it should be 3/8

[Swowl]

Where are you getting the 42% number from?

2 skum plus 1 traitor = 3/7 = 42.8%

But there are 9 people outside of the neighborhood, so 8 others, so it should be 3/8

Dumb. Did it off a 13 player start. You are correct.

Again, doesn’t super matter what the %s were - the point i was trying to illustrate was potentially 0% in hood vs GtD not-0% out of hood.

But good catch all the same.

[jotheonah]

The phony math in DatSwan’s argument is the implicit assumption that scum in the hood and no scum in the hood are equally likely. So when you say “why would we pick 33% OR 42% over 0% or whatever percent” that makes sense in a world where we have no idea whether there’s scum.

But that’s just lazy, just like all probability arguments are lazy, because we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not there’a scum in the hood, just like we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not someone is scum. We’re not choosing at random.

At the end of the day, I don’t care if we lynch inside or outside. We win by lynching the scummiest player. I still think that’s MiX, who made a blatant scumslip. But I also think that pst ost by Ash was an over the top appeal to emotion that screams scum. I mean look at that last sentence for crying out loud, it’s like a bad TV lawyer.

So both my top scumreads are consistent with a scum-in-the-hood theory. EFHW has her own reasons for thinking there’s scum in the hood and, again, they are better and more solid than brimless math.

So it is not brainless, it actually goes over literally all of the ranges based on all the potential set ups we could be in. If you mean it is brainless, as in so obvious anyone could do it, that is fair... but it’s purpose was to focus on the fact that there is never a 0% chance of finding skum outside the hood, but there is that possibility if we lynch inside the hood.

Do you hear yourself? A possibility of zero percent chance? That doesn’t mean anything. If you lynch me and you don’t know my alignment, there’s a possibility that there’s a zero percent chance I’m scum. Better not lynch anybody, I think there’s a posssibility of a zero percent chance that anybody’s town!

[Swowl]

The phony math in DatSwan’s argument is the implicit assumption that scum in the hood and no scum in the hood are equally likely. So when you say “why would we pick 33% OR 42% over 0% or whatever percent” that makes sense in a world where we have no idea whether there’s scum.

But that’s just lazy, just like all probability arguments are lazy, because we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not there’a scum in the hood, just like we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not someone is scum. We’re not choosing at random.

At the end of the day, I don’t care if we lynch inside or outside. We win by lynching the scummiest player. I still think that’s MiX, who made a blatant scumslip. But I also think that pst ost by Ash was an over the top appeal to emotion that screams scum. I mean look at that last sentence for crying out loud, it’s like a bad TV lawyer.

So both my top scumreads are consistent with a scum-in-the-hood theory. EFHW has her own reasons for thinking there’s scum in the hood and, again, they are better and more solid than brimless math.

So it is not brainless, it actually goes over literally all of the ranges based on all the potential set ups we could be in. If you mean it is brainless, as in so obvious anyone could do it, that is fair... but it’s purpose was to focus on the fact that there is never a 0% chance of finding skum outside the hood, but there is that possibility if we lynch inside the hood.

Do you hear yourself? A possibility of zero percent chance? That doesn’t mean anything. If you lynch me and you don’t know my alignment, there’s a possibility that there’s a zero percent chance I’m scum. Better not lynch anybody, I think there’s a posssibility of a zero percent chance that anybody’s town!

What?
It is not vague assumptions i am making here.

There is literally a chance we have a 0% chance of finding skum over 3 people in the hood.
There is literally a minimum if 3 skum aligned players outside of the hood.

Math is math is math and you can take whatever stance you want on it. We have a better chance of finding skum outside the hood rather than in.
From my perspective, i know that i am town. So, if skum is in the hood that means either EFHW or Ashes is skum. So why the hell are they the two with votes on them and i don’t have any? There is no skum in this damn hood -open your eyes up man.

[jotheonah]

The phony math in DatSwan’s argument is the implicit assumption that scum in the hood and no scum in the hood are equally likely. So when you say “why would we pick 33% OR 42% over 0% or whatever percent” that makes sense in a world where we have no idea whether there’s scum.

But that’s just lazy, just like all probability arguments are lazy, because we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not there’a scum in the hood, just like we have tools at our disposal to gauge whether or not someone is scum. We’re not choosing at random.

At the end of the day, I don’t care if we lynch inside or outside. We win by lynching the scummiest player. I still think that’s MiX, who made a blatant scumslip. But I also think that pst ost by Ash was an over the top appeal to emotion that screams scum. I mean look at that last sentence for crying out loud, it’s like a bad TV lawyer.

So both my top scumreads are consistent with a scum-in-the-hood theory. EFHW has her own reasons for thinking there’s scum in the hood and, again, they are better and more solid than brimless math.

So it is not brainless, it actually goes over literally all of the ranges based on all the potential set ups we could be in. If you mean it is brainless, as in so obvious anyone could do it, that is fair... but it’s purpose was to focus on the fact that there is never a 0% chance of finding skum outside the hood, but there is that possibility if we lynch inside the hood.

Do you hear yourself? A possibility of zero percent chance? That doesn’t mean anything. If you lynch me and you don’t know my alignment, there’s a possibility that there’s a zero percent chance I’m scum. Better not lynch anybody, I think there’s a posssibility of a zero percent chance that anybody’s town!

What?
It is not vague assumptions i am making here.

There is literally a chance we have a 0% chance of finding skum over 3 people in the hood.
There is literally a minimum if 3 skum aligned players outside of the hood.

Math is math is math and you can take whatever stance you want on it. We have a better chance of finding skum outside the hood rather than in.
From my perspective, i know that i am town. So, if skum is in the hood that means either EFHW or Ashes is skum. So why the hell are they the two with votes on them and i don’t have any? There is no skum in this damn hood -open your eyes up man.

Ok, let me take a random group of three players, say me, MiX, and Glooble. There is literally a chance we have a 0% chance of finding skum over 3 people in the group I just made up. So that group is off limits too now!

That's how you sound. The fact is that anybody could be skum at this point, so our best chance of lynching scum is lynching the person who we think is the scummiest.

I'm not denying that, if we were choosing at random, our chance to hit would be better outside the neighborhood. That math checks out. But we're not choosing at random and I'm saying that I care way more about our reads than about the math here, and I think you are way overstating the advantage we gain by lynching outside the hood.

[silverspawn]

It does indeed mean something. If there's a 3/4 chance that scum is in the neighborhood, and if it is there's a 1/3 chance to lynch scum when lynching in the neighborhood, and if not there's a 0% chance of that, then the total chance to lynch scum when lynching in the neighborhood is 1/3  * 3/4 = 1/4. This is lower than 1/3, obviously. The chance for 0% chance matters.

But since two people in the neighborhood are super towny, it actually looks much better than that.

[silverspawn]

I should really preview these posts before posting. EBWOP:


It does indeed mean something. If there's a 3/4 chance that scum is in the neighborhood, and if lynching itnh has 1/3 chance of hitting scum if there is scum inth and 0% otherwise, then the total chance to lynch scum when lynching itn is 1/3  * 3/4 = 1/4. This is lower than 1/3, obviously. The chance for 0% chance matters.

But since two people in the neighborhood are super towny, it actually looks much better than that.

[Swowl]

It does indeed mean something. If there's a 3/4 chance that scum is in the neighborhood, and if it is there's a 1/3 chance to lynch scum when lynching in the neighborhood, and if not there's a 0% chance of that, then the total chance to lynch scum when lynching in the neighborhood is 1/3  * 3/4 = 1/4. This is lower than 1/3, obviously. The chance for 0% chance matters.

But since two people in the neighborhood are super towny, it actually looks much better than that.

Right it is lower, but there is still NOT a chance there is no skum outside the hood while there is still a chance of no skum inside.
Whatever it feels like semantics at this point and honestly with 12 hours or whatever left i need to stop focusing on this and evidently find someone other than MCMC.

[jotheonah]

I'm just saying that there's a world of difference between a 0% chance and a chance of a 0% chance. And if we don't specify the percent chance of the 0% chance (which DatSwan has not done in making his argument), we're not saying anything particularly helpful or meaningful. Now if you said "There's a 99% chance of a 0% chance" or "There's a 1% chance of a 0% chance" then that would be worthwhile.

[jotheonah]

It does indeed mean something. If there's a 3/4 chance that scum is in the neighborhood, and if it is there's a 1/3 chance to lynch scum when lynching in the neighborhood, and if not there's a 0% chance of that, then the total chance to lynch scum when lynching in the neighborhood is 1/3  * 3/4 = 1/4. This is lower than 1/3, obviously. The chance for 0% chance matters.

But since two people in the neighborhood are super towny, it actually looks much better than that.

Right it is lower, but there is still NOT a chance there is no skum outside the hood while there is still a chance of no skum inside.
Whatever it feels like semantics at this point and honestly with 12 hours or whatever left i need to stop focusing on this and evidently find someone other than MCMC.

I like Glooble's silver case. By the way, are we in prod request territory for mcmc?

[silverspawn]

I don't think that means anything beyond how it affects the probability. I mean if there was a 90% chance of the neighborhood being 2/3 scum and a 10% chance of it being all town, we'd lynch in the neighborhood immediately. What matters is how likely you actually are to hit scum. The no-scum-in-neighborhood thing decreases that probability and that's it.

[silverspawn]

I like Glooble's silver case.

hooooooooooow it makes no seeeeeense

[MiX]

Do we not want to kill mcmc?

I'll be here around deadline, will sheep ss/mcmc/pubby/maybe-Glooble. Will probably reread in this order at night.

[silverspawn]

please tell me you don't believe the "propose massclaim to avoid PGO" part.

[MiX]

please tell me you don't believe the "propose massclaim to avoid PGO" part.

No that doesn't make any sense IMO, we all know that the problem with the massclaim is scum hits good roles everytime instead of randomly and traitor/third-party can claim VT to dodge the killing spree. We don't even know if there's a PGO, and if there is it might kill the bodyguard (or the other PRs).

You asked me right?

[EFHW]

I like Glooble's silver case.

hooooooooooow it makes no seeeeeense

I know it's not true.

[silverspawn]

No, I asked joth, but your answer was no less welcome.

What other parts of the case do you think have merit? Since you changed your read from town to possibly scum.

[EFHW]

vote: ashersky

My outside the neighborhood choice would be MiX.

[jotheonah]

vote: ashersky

My outside the neighborhood choice would be MiX.

Good luck.

[MiX]

No, I asked joth, but your answer was no less welcome.

What other parts of the case do you think have merit? Since you changed your read from town to possibly scum.

So from what I remember (it's very late and my brain doesn't work as well) joth said that lynching inside hood is what scum would do if there's no scum in hood, for obvious reasons. Scum would also like a massclaim so they can seperate traitor/third-party from town without risk since they can claim whatever and it won't really give any true information. Both of these, combined with the fact that I thought you were non-VT from the way you answered (and that you did a thing I know scum loves to do, but for you I'm not sure if it's scummy) I think you can be scum. Then there's the fact that Glooble/joth/gkrieg are towny, E's also slightly more towny, pps is...well...nothing, pubby's not getting lynched (there's nothing on him) and thus I want you or mcmc to be lynched.

vote: ashersky

My outside the neighborhood choice would be MiX.

Good luck.

Am I town? I forgot.

[silverspawn]

So from what I remember (it's very late and my brain doesn't work as well) joth said that lynching inside hood is what scum would do if there's no scum in hood, for obvious reasons. Scum would also like a massclaim so they can seperate traitor/third-party from town without risk since they can claim whatever and it won't really give any true information. Both of these, combined with the fact that I thought you were non-VT from the way you answered (and that you did a thing I know scum loves to do, but for you I'm not sure if it's scummy) I think you can be scum.

Ok thank you. I'm totally town though.

Sure scum would want to lynch in the neighborhood if there was no scum in the neighborhood. But town also wants to lynch in the neighborhood for the reasons I listed. I think they're quite good. So if both town and scum would do it, it should be NAI.

Why does the weird third party thing matter? You said defensiveness is a scum tell for me and I said no because I happened to know that I was just being defensive as town. That seems like totally benign.

Then there's the fact that Glooble/joth/gkrieg are towny, E's also slightly more towny, pps is...well...nothing, pubby's not getting lynched (there's nothing on him) and thus I want you or mcmc to be lynched.

Yeah I know right? Everyone is towny this game. I'll totally grant you that the POE is strong this game.

But ash. The ash. Lynch the ashes.

[silverspawn]

Quote fail but you'll get the message anyway.

[Glooble]

Seriously through I’m finding ash to be the towniest in the neighborhood so someone please explain why you all think he’s scum.

[EFHW]

I see only upsides to bringing this out, if it hasn't been already:

The Hood randomized who would carry out the vig shot by all of us selecting "self targets Eddie" after Eddie was agreed upon.

We do not know who actually carried out the shot.

You might have mentioned whose idea the randomization was. Objectively it was a towny idea, given we all equally shared the risk.

DatSwan suggested random, ash came up with the method.

[EFHW]

Seriously through I’m finding ash to be the towniest in the neighborhood so someone please explain why you all think he’s scum.

He feels different from usual. But unvote.

I hate that I may have outparanoided myself.

vote: MiX. Also not his usual self.

[EFHW]

request prod on mcmc

vote count please

[gkrieg13]

vote: mcmcsalot

Will look later tonight and change my vote if needed but will not be there at deadline probably.

[EFHW]

mcmc is basically a lurker lynch. Isn't it better to try to lynch someone who seems scummy?

[EFHW]

I won't be on at deadline either.

[Swowl]

Current Vote Count (by my count):

mcmcsalot (3): DatSwan, MiX, GK
ashersky (3): pubby, silverspawn, jtoheonah
EFHW (1): 2.71828.....,
silverspawn (1): Glooble
MiX (1): EFHW,

Not Voting (5): mcmcsalot, ashersky, pingpongsam

Deadline is at 10:10am Forum Time (13h15m from this post)

[Swowl]

Current Vote Count (by my count):

mcmcsalot (3): DatSwan, MiX, GK
ashersky (3): pubby, silverspawn, jtoheonah
EFHW (1): 2.71828.....,
silverspawn (1): Glooble
MiX (1): EFHW,

Not Voting (5): mcmcsalot, ashersky, pingpongsam

Deadline is at 10:10am Forum Time (13h15m from this post)

DL 10:10am FT on June 19th - just for clarification.

Who is gonna be around. we need that called out. this is a shitty situation.

[Swowl]

@ EFHW - Would you consider coming to MCMC? Would you consider anyone that is not MiX outside of the Hood?

[Swowl]

@ Ashes - You gonna be around?

[Swowl]

@ MiX - If not MCMC, where you at? *outside Swan/EFHW/Ashes*

[Swowl]

I am sitting around re reading hoping that I will come up with some revelation... probably don't rely on that.

I will be around for quite a while (in and out) until approx 4 hours prior to DL - which is est. 6:00am FT.

No lynch is pretty damn bad here, but in full disclosure:

- I absolutely will take a no lynch over Ashes... and I like 99% will take a no lynch over EFHW.
- I will 100% vote anyone that is not Ashes, EFHW, or myself if it is needed for a flip.


Theory: There are 12 players alive. Of those 12 players, there are kind of 3 tiers of people in terms of "contribution" so far in the game:
Tier 1: Swan, MiX, Glooble, SS, EFHW, Joth
Tier 2: GK, Ashes, E!
Tier 3: Pubby, MCMC, PPS

*Tier 1 and Tier 2 could be changed around a little, there are some based more on context and less on post count in terms of value*

I think it is likely that skum has day chat and is letting us tear each other apart. This makes me want to look at Pubby, MCMC, PPS.

Pubby I have not played with, but the vote camping is real, and that makes me suspicious.
MCMC is doing nothing which is just super freeking weird.
PPS is doing more than MCMC and Pubby, but still like nothing in comparison to what I am used to.


I want to lynch outside of the Hood, and I think we will find at least 1 skum in those 3. If someone could make a case for someone more active that would be rad, but other than that I think that there is a better chance of finding skum in those 3 than there is in finding skum in the 3 Hood players.

Literally anyone, say anything about that concept.

[EFHW]

If inactivity were due to daychat,  I'd expect the infrequent posts to be more meaningful.

Has pubby been scum?

Maybe no lynch isn't such a bad thing. If we only have one mislynch,  we probably shouldn't waste it shooting darts.

[faust]

Vote Count 2.6

mcmcsalot (3): DatSwan, MiX, gkrieg13
ashersky (2): pubby, silverspawn
EFHW (1): 2.71828.....
silverspawn (2): Glooble, jotheonah
MiX (1): EFHW

Not Voting (3): mcmcsalot, ashersky, pingpongsam

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on June 19, 2019, 10:10:00 am, in about 7.5 hours.

request prod on mcmc

Sent.

[ashersky]

I will be around up to deadline, on and off.

[Glooble]

I will be around close to deadline, but maybe not quite at deadline. But I’m inclined to agree with EFHW about no lynch being preferable to a mislynch. Which is awkward because I think EFHW is scum.

[MiX]

I will be around close to deadline, but maybe not quite at deadline. But I’m inclined to agree with EFHW about no lynch being preferable to a mislynch. Which is awkward because I think EFHW is scum.

What do you think we will gain with no lynch? All that happens is someone dies at scum's request. There's barely any PRs and I bet only 1 will get information tonight, so why wait?

[Glooble]

I will be around close to deadline, but maybe not quite at deadline. But I’m inclined to agree with EFHW about no lynch being preferable to a mislynch. Which is awkward because I think EFHW is scum.

What do you think we will gain with no lynch? All that happens is someone dies at scum's request. There's barely any PRs and I bet only 1 will get information tonight, so why wait?

And we’re back to vote: MiX

How do you know how many PRs there are?

[Swowl]

fine glooble lets go. No backing out though.

vote: efhw

[MiX]

I will be around close to deadline, but maybe not quite at deadline. But I’m inclined to agree with EFHW about no lynch being preferable to a mislynch. Which is awkward because I think EFHW is scum.

What do you think we will gain with no lynch? All that happens is someone dies at scum's request. There's barely any PRs and I bet only 1 will get information tonight, so why wait?

And we’re back to vote: MiX

How do you know how many PRs there are?

There's most likely already 2 neighbors.

fine glooble lets go. No backing out though.

vote: efhw

What why this vote?

[ashersky]

I will be around close to deadline, but maybe not quite at deadline. But I’m inclined to agree with EFHW about no lynch being preferable to a mislynch. Which is awkward because I think EFHW is scum.

What do you think we will gain with no lynch? All that happens is someone dies at scum's request. There's barely any PRs and I bet only 1 will get information tonight, so why wait?

And we’re back to vote: MiX

How do you know how many PRs there are?

Your scum read (EFHW) is voting there, FYI.  Do you think there's bussing?

[Swowl]

I will be around close to deadline, but maybe not quite at deadline. But I’m inclined to agree with EFHW about no lynch being preferable to a mislynch. Which is awkward because I think EFHW is scum.

What do you think we will gain with no lynch? All that happens is someone dies at scum's request. There's barely any PRs and I bet only 1 will get information tonight, so why wait?

And we’re back to vote: MiX

How do you know how many PRs there are?

There's most likely already 2 neighbors.

fine glooble lets go. No backing out though.

vote: efhw

What why this vote?

pretty self explanatory I think.

[MiX]

I will be around close to deadline, but maybe not quite at deadline. But I’m inclined to agree with EFHW about no lynch being preferable to a mislynch. Which is awkward because I think EFHW is scum.

What do you think we will gain with no lynch? All that happens is someone dies at scum's request. There's barely any PRs and I bet only 1 will get information tonight, so why wait?

And we’re back to vote: MiX

How do you know how many PRs there are?

There's most likely already 2 neighbors.

fine glooble lets go. No backing out though.

vote: efhw

What why this vote?

pretty self explanatory I think.

- I absolutely will take a no lynch over Ashes... and I like 99% will take a no lynch over EFHW.

Not for me.

[Glooble]

I was sort of thinking about going back to MiX anyway as my only other real off-wagon scumread, I was just nervous because EFHW was voting for him.

To answer your question though, we do have some investigative roles, and I’d like to give them one more night to do their thing, since a mislynch very well might straight up kill us.

PPE: I don’t know. I’m scumreading both of them, but I could be wrong about either. I wouldn’t expect scum to bus here. Still prefer silverspawn but it looks like no one (except joth) is seeing what I’m seeing there so I’m backing off for now.

[Swowl]

OK that blows nvm.

Vote: MCMC again for a moment.

Glooble - In a world where you had to pick between Ashes and Mix, who do you pick for skum?

PPE

[MiX]

Still prefer silverspawn but it looks like no one (except joth) is seeing what I’m seeing there so I’m backing off for now.

Vote: ss

Cmon, bus!

[Swowl]

I will be around close to deadline, but maybe not quite at deadline. But I’m inclined to agree with EFHW about no lynch being preferable to a mislynch. Which is awkward because I think EFHW is scum.

What do you think we will gain with no lynch? All that happens is someone dies at scum's request. There's barely any PRs and I bet only 1 will get information tonight, so why wait?

And we’re back to vote: MiX

How do you know how many PRs there are?

There's most likely already 2 neighbors.

fine glooble lets go. No backing out though.

vote: efhw

What why this vote?

pretty self explanatory I think.

- I absolutely will take a no lynch over Ashes... and I like 99% will take a no lynch over EFHW.

Not for me.

elaborate please - not reasons, but like both? one or the other?

[Glooble]

OK that blows nvm.

Vote: MCMC again for a moment.

Glooble - In a world where you had to pick between Ashes and Mix, who do you pick for skum?

PPE

MiX. 100%.

[Swowl]

Coolio - Mix whats your Glooble pov?

[Swowl]

Ashes - Glooble or Mix if you had to pick?

[MiX]

elaborate please - not reasons, but like both? one or the other?

You said "I will 99% take no lynch over EFHW" and then when Glooble started talking about no lynch you voted EFHW.

Coolio - Mix whats your Glooble pov?

My gut used to say Glooble's scum, then everyone put them as super towny so I think they're super towny. Also I hate to admit this sounds like good old Glooble.

[silverspawn]

vote: mcmc

[silverspawn]

Still prefer silverspawn but it looks like no one (except joth) is seeing what I’m seeing there so I’m backing off for now.

Vote: ss

Cmon, bus!

ew

[Swowl]

elaborate please - not reasons, but like both? one or the other?

You said "I will 99% take no lynch over EFHW" and then when Glooble started talking about no lynch you voted EFHW.

Coolio - Mix whats your Glooble pov?

My gut used to say Glooble's scum, then everyone put them as super towny so I think they're super towny. Also I hate to admit this sounds like good old Glooble.

stop saying skummy things please. I am attempting to help. You can answer your own question, and you know you can.

ppe

[Glooble]

Current list:

Will definitely vote:
Ss, MiX, EFHW

Maybe:
Pps, mcmc, pubby

Probably not:
E

No:
Joth, DatSwan, Ash, gkrieg,

[Swowl]

But also to that point - going back to


MCMC


I need to go to bed. it is 230am here. I will be back like an hour of DL.

[Swowl]

Current list:

Will definitely vote:
Ss, MiX, EFHW

Maybe:
Pps, mcmc, pubby

Probably not:
E

No:
Joth, DatSwan, Ash, gkrieg,

still bed. but jfc - i will lynch this guy if needed.

[MiX]

elaborate please - not reasons, but like both? one or the other?

You said "I will 99% take no lynch over EFHW" and then when Glooble started talking about no lynch you voted EFHW.

Coolio - Mix whats your Glooble pov?

My gut used to say Glooble's scum, then everyone put them as super towny so I think they're super towny. Also I hate to admit this sounds like good old Glooble.

stop saying skummy things please. I am attempting to help. You can answer your own question, and you know you can.

ppe

You severely overestimate my ability to understand your posts. If the answer lies in them then I won't understand.

Still prefer silverspawn but it looks like no one (except joth) is seeing what I’m seeing there so I’m backing off for now.

Vote: ss

Cmon, bus!

ew

Who will you lynch outside the hood?

[Glooble]

Not sure what was scummy about that list. I am also going to bed for an hour, I’ll be back on at 8:30, but I’ll be able to check in a few times before then (on the train, waiting for the bus, on the bus.)

[silverspawn]

Who will you lynch outside the hood?

Everyone if I'm the alternative. Mcmc might be the best choice

[pingpongsam]

Vote: jotheonah

[pingpongsam]

I can be semi available up to deadline (driving) but not at deadline (meeting I am driving to starts).

[faust]

Vote Count 2.7

mcmcsalot (3): gkrieg13, DatSwan, silverspawn
ashersky (1): pubby
EFHW (1): 2.71828.....
silverspawn (2): jotheonah, MiX
MiX (2): EFHW, Glooble
jotheonah (1): pingpongsam

Not Voting (2): mcmcsalot, ashersky

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on June 19, 2019, 10:10:00 am, in less than 3 hours.

[silverspawn]

I don't think a joth wagon is happening. You should join one of the larger wagens (that isn't me)

[Glooble]

Each of the top wagons has one of my top scumreads on it. Bleh.

vote: silverspawn

to consolidate.

[silverspawn]

On the contrary, no wagon has someone I scumread on it.

[MiX]

On the contrary, no wagon has someone I scumread on it.

Who do you scumread other than ash? mcmc? Anyone else?

[silverspawn]

I don't scumread anyone. mcmc and ash are just null

[ashersky]

vote: silverspawn from the current wagons.

I originally pushed mcmc, but his terrible non-response just doesn't strike me as a possible move from scum!mcmc, who would try harder.  I mean, he could have thought of that and done it on purpose, but that seems...tough.

I'm around until deadline, I believe.

[ashersky]

Ashes - Glooble or Mix if you had to pick?

MiX for sure.

[silverspawn]

everyone who is voting for me is actively working to get one of the most active town players lynched and will probably cause a scum win. Just pointing that out.

[silverspawn]

After my previous game I was beginning to suspect that some people here might actually be able to read me, but apparently not

[MiX]

everyone who is voting for me is actively working to get one of the most active town players lynched and will probably cause a scum win. Just pointing that out.

Happens when said towny person pushes for scummy plans.

[jotheonah]

everyone who is voting for me is actively working to get one of the most active town players lynched and will probably cause a scum win. Just pointing that out.

^ not how town players y’all people out of lynching them. Very AtE, very manipulative. Makes me feel better about my vote.

[silverspawn]

everyone who is voting for me is actively working to get one of the most active town players lynched and will probably cause a scum win. Just pointing that out.

Happens when said towny person pushes for scummy plans.

Then why is it happening this game?

[silverspawn]

Less flippantly, that is a poor reason. Disagreements about power levels rarely mean the other person is scum. I only remember one game where I intentionally supported a weak plan as scum. Usually I support the most towny thing as scum, or remain silent if I see that town are actively missing some stuff.

The reason I pushed the plan is that I think it's pro town. It is irrational to think otherwise even if you suspect I'm scum. Which I'm not as you're going to see in a bit if you keep this going.

Look at the interaction with Globbe. His setup talk is absurd. Did that make me think he's scum? No. I'm trying to actually a win a game here, I know that people who say silly things are most likely tonw.

[silverspawn]

You don't even agree on why the massclaim is harmful -- yours and Globbe's reasons are diametrically opposed -- and yet you're somehow convinced that it's so obviously anti town that I must be scum for pushing it. That is silly.

[silverspawn]

everyone who is voting for me is actively working to get one of the most active town players lynched and will probably cause a scum win. Just pointing that out.

^ not how town players y’all people out of lynching them. Very AtE, very manipulative. Makes me feel better about my vote.

You'll stop feeling good after the flip.

I'm much more likely to make emotional appeals as town than as scum. That is a fact. Check past games if you want to.

[silverspawn]

You guys really have no clue what my tells are.

[EFHW]

fine glooble lets go. No backing out though.

vote: efhw

What why this vote?

pretty self explanatory I think.
[/quote]

Did you explain this?

[faust]

Vote Count 2.8

mcmcsalot (3): gkrieg13, DatSwan, silverspawn
ashersky (1): pubby
EFHW (1): 2.71828.....
silverspawn (4): jotheonah, MiX, Glooble, ashersky
MiX (1): EFHW
jotheonah (1): pingpongsam

Not Voting (1): mcmcsalot

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on June 19, 2019, 10:10:00 am, in 20 minutes.

[MiX]

So. Who wants to lynch mcmc?

[pingpongsam]

So. Who wants to lynch mcmc?

I'm not opposed. I don't like it, though.

Vote: mcmc

[Glooble]

So. Who wants to lynch mcmc?

I don't really. I think No lynch is better.

[Glooble]

One more night gives us a shot at finding scum through PRs. If we mislynch mcmc and third party is traitor or survivor, we're dead. mcmc's been such a non-entity this game it feels like flipping a coin.

[pingpongsam]

One more night gives us a shot at finding scum through PRs. If we mislynch mcmc and third party is traitor or survivor, we're dead. mcmc's been such a non-entity this game it feels like flipping a coin.

I don't disagree. I guess I've always thought no lynch was the bad option without exception.

[MiX]

One more night gives us a shot at finding scum through PRs. If we mislynch mcmc and third party is traitor or survivor, we're dead. mcmc's been such a non-entity this game it feels like flipping a coin.

We're gonna be flipping coins 5 times this game. Might as well start now.

I have no idea what ss is anymore.

Vote: mcmc

[silverspawn]

One more night gives us a shot at finding scum through PRs. If we mislynch mcmc and third party is traitor or survivor, we're dead. mcmc's been such a non-entity this game it feels like flipping a coin.

On the other hand, if PRs cause one more or one fewer NK, we'll look silly for having no-lynched.

Pretty sure lynching today is better. In the 5 scum scenario we most likely lose anyway so it's not that important. And in the 4 scum scenario, it's much better to lynch now. Then we can decide whether or not a no-lynch is good tomorrow.

[ashersky]

vote: mcmc

[ashersky]

2 minutes to if it's going to happen.  Would need PPS and Glooble.

[Glooble]

Fine. vote: mcmcsalot

[ashersky]

EFHW was here, left her vote on Mix.  Not very useful...

[faust]

Day 2 Final Vote Count

mcmcsalot (7): gkrieg13, DatSwan, silverspawn, pingpongsam, MiX, ashersky, Glooble
ashersky (1): pubby
EFHW (1): 2.71828.....
silverspawn (1): jotheonah
MiX (1): EFHW

Not Voting (1): mcmcsalot

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch.

[MiX]

If mcmc's scum I hate this game. Otherwise we lose and, well, what could we do about it?

[faust]

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- Advertisement, early 2030s

mcmcsalot has been lynched! They were Human Devolution, the Vanilla Townie .

Night 2 begins now and lasts until June 21, 2019, 10:10:00 am. Night actions due within 36 hours.

Thread locked!

[faust]

This flavor text cannot be displayed because you are using an adblocker and/or anti-tracking software. Please keep in mind that flavor text writers need the revenue from aggressive ads and from selling your collected personal data in order to keep providing the content that you love. Please disable your adblocker and/or anti-tracking software in this game.

silverspawn has been killed! They were Surveillance Capitalism, the Vanilla Townie!

Day 3 begins!

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (10): Glooble, MiX, DatSwan, jotheonah, pingpongsam, EFHW, 2.71828....., ashersky, gkrieg13, pubby

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends on June 28, 2019, 10:10:00 am.

Thread unlocked!

[Glooble]

Well, the bad news is my theory was completely wrong.

The good news is we're not dead.

[jotheonah]

So the game is still going. That might mean there's only four scum. Or it might mean there are five, but the faust is accounting for the possibility of mafia and traitor voting for each other because of imperfect knowledge.

Either way, I'm kinda glad silver's gone because it's going to make for a very informative re-read. I was really expecting to come into today with the same WIFOM I was facing yesterday, but it looks like it's going to be a different WIFOM.

[jotheonah]

I'll do a re-read over the weekend.

[Glooble]

I want to apologize to everyone for that hammer. I shouldn't have dropped it. My only defense is I panicked.

[MiX]

I want to apologize to everyone for that hammer. I shouldn't have dropped it. My only defense is I panicked.

I love that hammer. Mcmc was super towny after D1 and it's a disgrace that we couldn't use it. Also we were between 2 town.

Scum killed ss because he's not third-party. In this glorious day we have a scum majority (since no SK).

We need a flawless town game from here on: it's offically worse than LyLo. I really wish I was scum.

Glooble's scum because everyone defended him and he feels guilt from a great hammer.

Vote: Glooble, can't bold just in case scum piles.

[Glooble]

Narcissistic as this sounds, I think a big part of why they killed silverspawn was to frame me. And to throw off any townies trying to predict their kill.

[ashersky]

So the game is still going. That might mean there's only four scum. Or it might mean there are five, but the faust is accounting for the possibility of mafia and traitor voting for each other because of imperfect knowledge.

Either way, I'm kinda glad silver's gone because it's going to make for a very informative re-read. I was really expecting to come into today with the same WIFOM I was facing yesterday, but it looks like it's going to be a different WIFOM.

Aren’t we guaranteed to be at only 4 scum?  If third party chose mafia, it’s 5v5 so town is endgamed. Town can’t lynch anyone without a scum vote, so game over.

It’s bleak, but there’s still a chance.

[Glooble]

Narcissistic as this sounds, I think a big part of why they killed silverspawn was to frame me. And to throw off any townies trying to predict their kill.

Actually never mind, this doesn't make any sense. Scum!Glooble just doesn't kill silverspawn. If I were on the scum team, they'd keep silverspawn alive so I could build on my case from yesterday and get him lynched.

[pubby]

joth and ash are obviously scum can we please lynch them already.

[MiX]

So the game is still going. That might mean there's only four scum. Or it might mean there are five, but the faust is accounting for the possibility of mafia and traitor voting for each other because of imperfect knowledge.

Either way, I'm kinda glad silver's gone because it's going to make for a very informative re-read. I was really expecting to come into today with the same WIFOM I was facing yesterday, but it looks like it's going to be a different WIFOM.

Aren’t we guaranteed to be at only 4 scum?  If third party chose mafia, it’s 5v5 so town is endgamed. Town can’t lynch anyone without a scum vote, so game over.

It’s bleak, but there’s still a chance.

Does this mean there's a reporter? Can town even win here? We need to lynch 4 scum in a row.

[jotheonah]

So the game is still going. That might mean there's only four scum. Or it might mean there are five, but the faust is accounting for the possibility of mafia and traitor voting for each other because of imperfect knowledge.

Either way, I'm kinda glad silver's gone because it's going to make for a very informative re-read. I was really expecting to come into today with the same WIFOM I was facing yesterday, but it looks like it's going to be a different WIFOM.

Aren’t we guaranteed to be at only 4 scum?  If third party chose mafia, it’s 5v5 so town is endgamed. Town can’t lynch anyone without a scum vote, so game over.

It’s bleak, but there’s still a chance.

I don't want to explain my thought process because that could be bad, but in this setup I'm not sure 5v5=endgamed. And I think we should stop talking about this.

[jotheonah]

joth and ash are obviously scum can we please lynch them already.

pubby's contributions continue to be as helpful as they are verbose

[jotheonah]

So the game is still going. That might mean there's only four scum. Or it might mean there are five, but the faust is accounting for the possibility of mafia and traitor voting for each other because of imperfect knowledge.

Either way, I'm kinda glad silver's gone because it's going to make for a very informative re-read. I was really expecting to come into today with the same WIFOM I was facing yesterday, but it looks like it's going to be a different WIFOM.

Aren’t we guaranteed to be at only 4 scum?  If third party chose mafia, it’s 5v5 so town is endgamed. Town can’t lynch anyone without a scum vote, so game over.

It’s bleak, but there’s still a chance.

Does this mean there's a reporter? Can town even win here? We need to lynch 4 scum in a row.

On the other hand, we have a 40% chance of hitting scum if we just throw a dart, and we have two new town flips and 45 pages of mafia to analyze. So I think there's reason for optimism!

[jotheonah]

actually, with a max of 1 scum in the neighborhood and now only 7 living players not in the neighborhood, we have either a 3/7 or a 4/7 chance of hitting scum if we lynch outside the neighborhood. so today I'm feeling a lot better about DatSwan's math that I was arguing with him about yesterday.

OTOH silver was the main advocate for lynching in the neighborhood and they killed him, so either scum is really worried about us lynching in the neighborhood, or they want us to think they are because there's no scum in the neighborhood. So ... that's not that helpful.

[jotheonah]

With 4 scum

Lynching randomly = 40% chance of hitting scum
Lynching randomly in neighborhood = either 0% or 33% chance of hitting scum
Lynching randomly outside the neighborhood = either 43% or 57% chance of hitting scum

With 5 scum

Lynching randomly = 50% chance of hitting scum
Lynching randomly in neighborhood = either 0% or 33% chance of hitting scum
Lynching randomly outside the neighborhood = either 57% or 71% chance of hitting scum

So there's literally no universe in which lynching in the neighborhood today makes sense from a purely mathematic standpoint.

[MiX]

So the game is still going. That might mean there's only four scum. Or it might mean there are five, but the faust is accounting for the possibility of mafia and traitor voting for each other because of imperfect knowledge.

Either way, I'm kinda glad silver's gone because it's going to make for a very informative re-read. I was really expecting to come into today with the same WIFOM I was facing yesterday, but it looks like it's going to be a different WIFOM.

Aren’t we guaranteed to be at only 4 scum?  If third party chose mafia, it’s 5v5 so town is endgamed. Town can’t lynch anyone without a scum vote, so game over.

It’s bleak, but there’s still a chance.

I don't want to explain my thought process because that could be bad, but in this setup I'm not sure 5v5=endgamed. And I think we should stop talking about this.

This is correct, I hate that this is correct, and there is exactly one scenario where this is right and it involves scum misplay (however, the misplay's due to lack of information, so it's fair that said misplay happens).

joth and ash are obviously scum can we please lynch them already.

pubby's contributions continue to be as helpful as they are verbose

pubby's scum that cultivated a bad town meta and is reaping it this game.

actually, with a max of 1 scum in the neighborhood and now only 7 living players not in the neighborhood, we have either a 3/7 or a 4/7 chance of hitting scum if we lynch outside the neighborhood. so today I'm feeling a lot better about DatSwan's math that I was arguing with him about yesterday.

The math was already really good, you were just blind before. Anyway, welcome to the club.

OTOH silver was the main advocate for lynching in the neighborhood and they killed him, so either scum is really worried about us lynching in the neighborhood, or they want us to think they are because there's no scum in the neighborhood. So ... that's not that helpful.

ss claimed non-third-party. That would be enough for me to think they're not third party. I assume it would also be enough for scum.

On the other hand, we have a 40% chance of hitting scum if we just throw a dart, and we have two new town flips and 45 pages of mafia to analyze. So I think there's reason for optimism!

If we get a reporter claim we can PoE everything (and say how much of a mistake it was to pick reporter, a traitor would've won by now), without one we have basically lost. So, can they claim? Pretty please? Worst case scenario we get a conflict.

So there's literally no universe in which lynching in the neighborhood today makes sense from a purely mathematic standpoint.

Never was, even yesterday.

[EFHW]

That's funny, I was thinking maybe you chose reporter. You seemed so hopeless Day 2.

[EFHW]

Reporter is only one result better than Even Night Tracker, and the tracker would be town-aligned. But having tracker results doesn't guarantee POE. Why are you focused on that in particular?

[MiX]

Reporter is only one result better than Even Night Tracker, and the tracker would be town-aligned. But having tracker results doesn't guarantee POE. Why are you focused on that in particular?

There's no other possible third-party that allows us to win. Which means we know it exists. That's all, I trust them to know what they're doing so they can reveal whenever.

That's funny, I was thinking maybe you chose reporter. You seemed so hopeless Day 2.

Just no good reads. And we could've lost if the third-party had chosen...pretty much any other role. So yeah I think I was justified.

[Glooble]

Reporter is only one result better than Even Night Tracker, and the tracker would be town-aligned. But having tracker results doesn't guarantee POE. Why are you focused on that in particular?

There's no other possible third-party that allows us to win. Which means we know it exists. That's all, I trust them to know what they're doing so they can reveal whenever.

That's not technically true. We could have a Serial Killer who was somehow blocked both nights.

[Glooble]

Or even got through one night but the scum kill was blocked that night.

[jotheonah]

Or keeps choosing the same targets as scum.

[EFHW]

Right, so why is MiX so sure there is only one possibility?

[jotheonah]

I would love it if we finally lynched MiX today. But I want to do a reread and see if a slam dunk case emerges.

But yeah, MiX continues to say things and jump to conclusions that are just a little off.

[jotheonah]

living: Glooble, MiX, DatSwan, jotheonah, pingpongsam, EFHW, 2.71828....., ashersky, gkrieg13, pubby

out of neighborhood: Glooble, MiX, jotheonah, pingpongsam,  2.71828....., gkrieg13, pubby

minus me and Glooble (strong town read): MiX, pingpongsam,  2.71828....., gkrieg13, pubby

These are the people I'd like to lynch today, and it's fully possible that all of them are scum.

[jotheonah]

Point being, for those of you who ARE town, POE is a very strong tool here. If you have even two town reads outside the neighborhood, then you have nearly called the scum team by default.

[EFHW]

massclaim?

[EFHW]

Point being, for those of you who ARE town, POE is a very strong tool here. If you have even two town reads outside the neighborhood, then you have nearly called the scum team by default.

So you are confident that there are no scum in the neighborhood?

[jotheonah]

Point being, for those of you who ARE town, POE is a very strong tool here. If you have even two town reads outside the neighborhood, then you have nearly called the scum team by default.

So you are confident that there are no scum in the neighborhood?

Not at all— hence the nearly— but I’m sold on not lynching out of the neighborhood today. The math is even uglier than it was yesterday.

[MiX]

I would love it if we finally lynched MiX today. But I want to do a reread and see if a slam dunk case emerges.

But yeah, MiX continues to say things and jump to conclusions that are just a little off.

Gee, sorry for trying to get information from our situation and failing, I'll go back to panicking right away.

living: Glooble, MiX, DatSwan, jotheonah, pingpongsam, EFHW, 2.71828....., ashersky, gkrieg13, pubby

out of neighborhood: Glooble, MiX, jotheonah, pingpongsam,  2.71828....., gkrieg13, pubby

minus me and Glooble (strong town read): MiX, pingpongsam,  2.71828....., gkrieg13, pubby

These are the people I'd like to lynch today, and it's fully possible that all of them are scum.

Of these, I want pps or pubby. They're probably both scum anyway. Okay let's reread.

[jotheonah]

massclaim?

Maybe? Scum can already guarantee avoiding the PGO by just killing in the neighborhood, so that edge is diminished. The fact that they chose not to do that last night tells me they’re not that worried about it though.

[Glooble]

massclaim?

Maybe? Scum can already guarantee avoiding the PGO by just killing in the neighborhood, so that edge is diminished. The fact that they chose not to do that last night tells me they’re not that worried about it though.

On the other hand, if we do have a tracker reporter the massclaim might allow them to negotiate with scum for a shared victory.

[Glooble]

Day 1 Final Vote Count

MiX (2): pingpongsam, Debatepro
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, gkrieg13, 2.71828.....
Debatepro (: EFHW, MiX, pubby, A Drowned Kernel, Glooble, jotheonah, silverspawn, Uncleeurope

Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky

With 15 alive, it took 8 to lynch.

The debatepro wagon might be useful to analyze. It's got three flipped townies on it. If we take EFHW out of consideration for now it gives us [Mix, pubby, Glooble, joth]. Seems unlikely all of these people are town. I know I'm town, I think joth is... of this group I lynch MiX or pubby. This isn't that helpful though, since I was already scumreading both of them.

Day 2 Final Vote Count

mcmcsalot (7): gkrieg13, DatSwan, silverspawn, pingpongsam, MiX, ashersky, Glooble
ashersky (1): pubby
EFHW (1): 2.71828.....
silverspawn (1): jotheonah
MiX (1): EFHW

Not Voting (1): mcmcsalot

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch.

Only one flipped townie on this wagon.

Still alive on both the debatepro and mcmcsalot wagons: MiX and Glooble

On debate but not mcmcsalot: EFHW, pubby, joth

on mcmcsalot but not debate: gkrieg, DatSwan, pingpongsam, ashersky

on neither wagon: e


I have no idea what to do with this information.

[jotheonah]

honestly, this analysis makes me suspicious of e.

[MiX]

You should look at the ss "wagon", you'll get more information from it. Also pubby's wagon from D1.

Now my own information: in #218, there's 4 unflipped (EFHW, gkrieg, E, Glooble) voting for another (Swan). I don't know what this means, but I'm pretty sure there must be at least 1 scum on the wagon.

[jotheonah]

I just reread all of day 1 and boy are my eyes tired. But it was extremely informative. I'll post full reread notes below in case people want them, but here's the gist: If you consider that scum didn't want debate lynched because they thought he was the traitor, a reasonable assumption, then the end of Day 1 is extremely informative.

It's got me pretty convinced that pubby is town.

I still think MiX is scum, but he's the only one of my scumspects that doesn't fit this bill:

enthusiastically got on the pubby wagon but was nowhere to be found for the debatepro wagon. That's gkrieg and e.

Reread just the end of day 1. It will make things clear.

Other things worth looking at include #131, where MiX "calls" the scum team. If we assume he listed a mix of scum and town (no pun intended) then e and gkrieg (or me if you think I'm scum) have to be his partners.

popsquiz after day 1 reread

Scummy
gkrieg
e
MiX

Towny
pubby
pps
Glooble

Neighbors
DatSwan
ash
EFHW

I don't know who the 4th scum is. It's either Glooble or pps fooling me, or it's someone in the neighborhood, possibly DatSwan because of MiX's #242

[jotheonah]

full notes if you wanna read:

mcmc’s proposed voting bloc, mcmc, ADK, and pps, is 2/3 town. If it’s all town, that supports my theory that MiX was scum trying to get into it in case it became important.

#104 Gkrieg votes for ash for not having a plan. reads as a lazy attempt to start a wagon. This is shortly after a vote on Eddie for “a lazy vote”. Nothing super scummy, but eager to start “real” voting.

#117 gkrieg points out that scum doesn’t have any control over whether we’re in Lylo day 2

“If you look at the setup, scum has no way of influencing this set of things to happen, so I don't know why it has any affect good or bad for town.

this is the sort of info scum is more likely to have at their fingertips than town…

As usual, my townread on Glooble is wavering a smidge on reread. He’s pretty pushy about wanting setup talk to happen in #120

#131 MiX “calls” the scum team

“Scum team: joth/gkrieg/ss/e, mcmc's survivor. There, game solved. Oh, except I'm not sure who's traitor yet.”

pretty sure if scum makes a list like this it’s some town some scum, and gkrieg and e are the only two on here that aren’t conf!scum to me

e turns up at #133. Late entry into the game is notable if Swan’s day chat theory is correct. content is null, but could read “forced jokey”

pubby shows up at #138 with a vote for PPS and an emoji and that’s it. also late entry.

#143 ADK says he has partner vibes on MiX and gkrieg, and honestly I kinda had the same thought on this reread.

Very little relevant participation from pps so far. Mostly talking about how MiX and himself are too similar. This convo is a little too cute and also gives me partner vibes.

Not focusing on ash this reread, but man I cannot figure him out.

Swan very late entry at #153

Actually both apps and e are uncharacteristic lucky this game. I buy day chat as an explanation

#187 e jumps on the opt to explain traitor to debatepro. It has been said that scum likes opportunities to post and be friendly and helpful without scumhunting.

then there’s this whole discussion about DatSwan mischaracterizing ash and the end result of it is that Glooble looks townie to me again

#224 is pubby’s second post of the game. he votes for me with slightly more words and just as little explanation. we should have policy lynched him day 1 for the way he’s playing

I still strongly dislike MiX’s #240, but now I’m wondering if it’s partner coaching

#242 MiX pretty strongly defends Swan in the face of not that many votes

pps’s non participation is almost too blatant to be scummy. scum at least tries to look like their scumhunting

#285 is hubby’s third post of the game. he has an explanation for his vote on me. it’s not very good or understandable

in #323 ADK town reads MiX but scum reads e, hubby, and gkrieg, especially gkrieg

#339 MiX starts the debatepro wagon with uncharacteristic commitment. Especially weirdly it doesn’t end with a vote. MiX, who votes as easily as he breathes and posts in fits and starts, writes a very long on and earnest case on a player and then doesn’t vote for them. If y’all don’t do anything else, read this post and tell me what you think of it.

EFHW’s vote on the debate wagon at #403 is a scummy spot to get on the wagon I think. sort of reviving/reminding people when it stalled, but not in a townie way.

#408 is pubby’s 4th post of the game. it’s a direct response to Glooble’s question about his vote on me. It ignores all the other things that are going on and it’s not even that interesting an answer.

MiX’s #425 makes it very unlikely, to me, that both MiX and pubby are scum. You don’t leave your vote on your partner when you leave for the night before deadline when it’s very unclear who’s going to be lynched. Of the two, pubby is the more likely town to me. 

Also, at the time, a lot of people were traitor-reading Debatepro, so it makes sense that scum would not want to plant their vote there, even though debate ended up being town. gkrieg also leaves his vote on pubby. same with e.

MiX comes back and re-ignites the debatepro wagon at #463. This admittedly does not fit with my narrative.

Also noteworthy, the pubby launch was derailed by UncleEurope and silver. So scum didn’t turn the wagon away from pubby, town did.

#482 and #483 are the pubby’s 5th and 6th posts of the game. He continues the conversation about his vote on me, and then jumps on the debatepro wagon, which in his case is pretty alignment-neutral

#510 made me chuckle



[jotheonah]

oh and vote: gkrieg

I may do a day 2 reread later this weekend, but I'm wiped out for tonight. That was legit like more than an hour of work.

[Swowl]

I want to apologize to everyone for that hammer. I shouldn't have dropped it. My only defense is I panicked.

I love that hammer. Mcmc was super towny after D1 and it's a disgrace that we couldn't use it. Also we were between 2 town.

Scum killed ss because he's not third-party. In this glorious day we have a scum majority (since no SK).

We need a flawless town game from here on: it's offically worse than LyLo. I really wish I was scum.

Glooble's scum because everyone defended him and he feels guilt from a great hammer.

Vote: Glooble, can't bold just in case scum piles.

1) How was MCMC town after day 1?

2) How would skum know that SS was not third party?

3) Not really worse than lylo... I mean I kind of agree with you on assumption, but if the third party is a Survivor that wants town to win or they are the Researcher guy - I think it is just lylo?

[Swowl]

So the game is still going. That might mean there's only four scum. Or it might mean there are five, but the faust is accounting for the possibility of mafia and traitor voting for each other because of imperfect knowledge.

Either way, I'm kinda glad silver's gone because it's going to make for a very informative re-read. I was really expecting to come into today with the same WIFOM I was facing yesterday, but it looks like it's going to be a different WIFOM.

Aren’t we guaranteed to be at only 4 scum?  If third party chose mafia, it’s 5v5 so town is endgamed. Town can’t lynch anyone without a scum vote, so game over.

It’s bleak, but there’s still a chance.

I was worried about this and have confirmed with MOD that if it was 5x Town vs 3x Mafia vs 2x Traitors that the game would continue today. I don't really understand it, but that was the response I got.

[Swowl]

massclaim?

Maybe? Scum can already guarantee avoiding the PGO by just killing in the neighborhood, so that edge is diminished. The fact that they chose not to do that last night tells me they’re not that worried about it though.

Skum could be worried there is a Survivor.

If there is a Survivor and a Skum in the Hood then they would not of killed inside because they are 50-50 on hitting Survivor and then 50-50 on hitting themselves from that. That is a long shot, but just pointing it out.

[Swowl]

I did not have time to finishing reading back yet after the SS flip. I will do it soon and get back, but I am pretty certain the play adds up with Joth's math in regards to looking outside the hood. I am gonna try to narrow it in more than that.

[MiX]

massclaim?

Maybe? Scum can already guarantee avoiding the PGO by just killing in the neighborhood, so that edge is diminished. The fact that they chose not to do that last night tells me they’re not that worried about it though.

Skum could be worried there is a Survivor.

If there is a Survivor and a Skum in the Hood then they would not of killed inside because they are 50-50 on hitting Survivor and then 50-50 on hitting themselves from that. That is a long shot, but just pointing it out.

By the way, survivor's always a neighbor, so ss couldn't possibly be a survivor.

I want to apologize to everyone for that hammer. I shouldn't have dropped it. My only defense is I panicked.

I love that hammer. Mcmc was super towny after D1 and it's a disgrace that we couldn't use it. Also we were between 2 town.

Scum killed ss because he's not third-party. In this glorious day we have a scum majority (since no SK).

We need a flawless town game from here on: it's offically worse than LyLo. I really wish I was scum.

Glooble's scum because everyone defended him and he feels guilt from a great hammer.

Vote: Glooble, can't bold just in case scum piles.

1) How was MCMC town after day 1?

2) How would skum know that SS was not third party?

3) Not really worse than lylo... I mean I kind of agree with you on assumption, but if the third party is a Survivor that wants town to win or they are the Researcher guy - I think it is just lylo?

1) Just look at pretty much everyone's reads D1: Mcmc was essencially regarded as town by everyone. I can't really say more than that because I would be lying if I said I remember why mcmc was towny.

2) SS's not the type of person to pick traitor and say "I'm not third-party". Especially the first part. Otherwise maybe scum had a non-PGO read on him.

3) It's worse because if there's 2 Traitors then there's exactly one scenario where we can win, so maybe we're in that scenario. If we're not then you're right in that it's a very weird LyLo situation, but not worse than it.

[jotheonah]

Wow so everyone’s just ignoring the massive reread and wall of text I just did?

mass prod request: pingpongsam, e, pubby

[MiX]

Wow so everyone’s just ignoring the massive reread and wall of text I just did?

mass prod request: pingpongsam, e, pubby

I love it, but I can't say much because I'm incredibly biased. I would vote e/gkrieg but half of the statements are about things I said so it wouldn't make much sense.

[jotheonah]

Wow so everyone’s just ignoring the massive reread and wall of text I just did?

mass prod request: pingpongsam, e, pubby

I love it, but I can't say much because I'm incredibly biased. I would vote e/gkrieg but half of the statements are about things I said so it wouldn't make much sense.

The most important part, the end of the day case, works even if you’re town. In fact it works better if you’re town. A part of me actually thinks you’re the traitor, but then I have to rescind a bunch of other stuff. Anyway, start this wagon with me! It’ll give you lots of town points in my eyes if you do, and I’m pretty sure lots of votes is the only thing that will bring these lurkerscum out of their holes.

[jotheonah]

also I rescind my pubby prod request because he’s actually posted today

[MiX]

Wow so everyone’s just ignoring the massive reread and wall of text I just did?

mass prod request: pingpongsam, e, pubby

I love it, but I can't say much because I'm incredibly biased. I would vote e/gkrieg but half of the statements are about things I said so it wouldn't make much sense.

The most important part, the end of the day case, works even if you’re town. In fact it works better if you’re town. A part of me actually thinks you’re the traitor, but then I have to rescind a bunch of other stuff. Anyway, start this wagon with me! It’ll give you lots of town points in my eyes if you do, and I’m pretty sure lots of votes is the only thing that will bring these lurkerscum out of their holes.

If I hop on the wagon and we're wrong, we lose. So, sorry, but no.

[pingpongsam]

Wow so everyone’s just ignoring the massive reread and wall of text I just did?

mass prod request: pingpongsam, e, pubby

Sure, ok, Vote: joth
That’s where I left off yestergameday. For now I will assume the effort is the final scum push to look towny and try to maybe have one bus member in a pool of otherwise townies and maybe even a 3p.

I’ll give it a more thorough read later torealday.  This should satisfy the desire for an immediate response, no?

[faust]

Vote Count 3.1

gkrieg13 (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (1): pingpongsam

Not Voting (8): Glooble, MiX, DatSwan, EFHW, 2.71828....., ashersky, gkrieg13, pubby

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends on June 28, 2019, 10:10:00 am.

mass prod request: pingpongsam, e, pubby

2.71828..... has been prodded.

[jotheonah]

Wow so everyone’s just ignoring the massive reread and wall of text I just did?

mass prod request: pingpongsam, e, pubby

Sure, ok, Vote: joth
That’s where I left off yestergameday. For now I will assume the effort is the final scum push to look towny and try to maybe have one bus member in a pool of otherwise townies and maybe even a 3p.

I’ll give it a more thorough read later torealday.  This should satisfy the desire for an immediate response, no?

Well I guess that settles that. pps is the last scum. If anyone seriously thinks that I do all that to stick the landing in a scum game I'm already winning by a mile, I really don't know what to tell you. Not even reading or engaging with my case? You are either scum or the laziest town player I've ever seen, so I'm charitably going to assume you're scum.

[jotheonah]

Honestly, if the half of this town that isn't scum doesn't show up and start doing some work soon, I'm out. I'm certainly not going to spend another hour on a day 2 reread if this is the thanks I get.

[MiX]

If joth is scum then he has really changed his scum meta. A better theory is pps is scum.

Vote: pps

Honestly, if the half of this town that isn't scum doesn't show up and start doing some work soon, I'm out. I'm certainly not going to spend another hour on a day 2 reread if this is the thanks I get.

I love you, please continue, and you're my IC. Now can you please reread D2?

[Glooble]

I was already scumreading PPS for my own reasons, so I’ll take that risk. vote: pps

I have more reservations about gkrieg based on an interaction he had with silverspawn day one, but I’m not sure it benefits town more than scum to highlight that interaction, especially if joth didn’t catch it on his reread.

Also, bro, I appreciate the work you do and I understand it’s frustrating not to get instant feedback, but if you look at the pace this game has been moving I’m not sure why you’re surprised.

[jotheonah]

I was already scumreading PPS for my own reasons, so I’ll take that risk. vote: pps

I have more reservations about gkrieg based on an interaction he had with silverspawn day one, but I’m not sure it benefits town more than scum to highlight that interaction, especially if joth didn’t catch it on his reread.

Also, bro, I appreciate the work you do and I understand it’s frustrating not to get instant feedback, but if you look at the pace this game has been moving I’m not sure why you’re surprised.

It’s not so much the lack of instant feedback as the fact that when people DO show up they don’t engage with stuff. Also, these are exactly the wrong people jumping on exactly the wrong person and it makes me nervous. Can I talk you guys into e instead of pps?

[jotheonah]

ie I’m fairly certain MiX is scum and Glooble and PPS are the two I’m not sure of, so the two of them showing up and jumping on pps but not gkrieg or e just tells me that I was wrong and Glooble is the last scum.

[2.71828.....]

jotheonah - recent posts are quite convincing, town
Glooble - town read as previously posted
2.71828..... - me, town
ashersky - town since D1. Also neighborhood.
DatSwan - PoE town in neighborhood

MiX - townreading MiX. But his game has the potential for him to be traitor here I think
pingpongsam - rereading him right after I post this, I don't recall anything about him this game
pubby - another player I don't really remember anything about.

EFHW - scum in the neighborhood as explained D2
gkrieg13 - lean scum, remember seeing some of his D1 posts as scummy but never was a real target and I have been too absent to really look into him. But PoE is strong by this point

[2.71828.....]

ie I’m fairly certain MiX is scum and Glooble and PPS are the two I’m not sure of, so the two of them showing up and jumping on pps but not gkrieg or e just tells me that I was wrong and Glooble is the last scum.

The two votes on pps are weird

[pubby]

vote: joth

[jotheonah]

The people I need to hear from about my case are ash, Swan, EFHW, and pubby, because they’re most likely the rest of the town. And pps I guess. This 50/50 thing is pretty frustrating.

[jotheonah]

vote: joth

SERIOUSLY!?!? &@$@$”@$&@$”@&”@&&@@&@0”$9!

[EFHW]

Honestly, if the half of this town that isn't scum doesn't show up and start doing some work soon, I'm out. I'm certainly not going to spend another hour on a day 2 reread if this is the thanks I get.

Day is young. Off hand,  lazy pps seems more likely than scum pps.

[2.71828.....]

Reread PPS, nothing there to say they are town. Definitely could be scum, especially with PoE.

The joth votes are bad, especially coming from pubby and PPS

[jotheonah]

Honestly, if the half of this town that isn't scum doesn't show up and start doing some work soon, I'm out. I'm certainly not going to spend another hour on a day 2 reread if this is the thanks I get.

Day is young. Off hand,  lazy pps seems more likely than scum pps.

We as a community appear to have two modes: “The day is young” and “oh shit the deadline”

[ashersky]

Sorry, had a speech contest today that I have been prepping for for weeks so I had less free time available.  I skimmed but did not give joth’s posts enough attention. I should be able to do that on Sunday.

In the meantime, I feel like voting is dangerous.  There has been talk of daychat being possible, planned team quick lynched are a thing. So I feel like even L-2 or 3 is dangerous, although long stretches at that level would highly suggest a scum wagon.

[ashersky]

Honestly, if the half of this town that isn't scum doesn't show up and start doing some work soon, I'm out. I'm certainly not going to spend another hour on a day 2 reread if this is the thanks I get.

Day is young. Off hand,  lazy pps seems more likely than scum pps.

We as a community appear to have two modes: “The day is young” and “oh shit the deadline”

I laughed out loud at this.

[2.71828.....]

vote: joth

SERIOUSLY!?!? &@$@$”@$&@$”@&”@&&@@&@0”$9!

vote: joth

SERIOUSLY!?!? &@$@$”@$&@$”@&”@&&@@&@0”$9!

Just finished rereading pubby and at least this is consistent with his entire game.

That being said, he has expressed 2 real opinions: joth and ashersky are scum. Joth being scum was D1, then he added ashersky D2. I could easily see him as scum just tunneling as a lurker to maintain the ability to "contribute" while not posting

[2.71828.....]

Bah. Previous post was just me having trouble on my phone.

[Glooble]

unvote

Per ashersky’s point, and I’ll be out most of the day, parking my vote isn’t safe.

Need to reread e. Leaning scum on him right now mostly by POE. Honestly silverspawn being town has thrown off all my leads.

[gkrieg13]

Sorry but an old friend came into town and it is his birthday today so I’ll be pretty VLA today and tomorrow. I’ll get to this on Monday probably.

[jotheonah]

I apologize for my outburst. I’m out the rest of today too. Possibly finish my reread tomorrow.

[pingpongsam]

I intend to reread SS knowing he is town. He had quite the wagon and seems he should have been an easy mislynch. I think he was onto something and scum felt he needed silenced. I intend to place a vote on a scum read formed around the SS reread.

[EFHW]

Sorry but an old friend came into town and it is his birthday today so I’ll be pretty VLA today and tomorrow. I’ll get to this on Monday probably.

Aren't you usually unavailable weekends?

[MiX]

I'll be voting while I reread because why not. I don't expect to move my vote a lot, but, well, I know me, so I'll probably move my vote a lot anyway.

Vote: pubby, joth is super towny and he voted for joth. That's all I need. That and he's replicating his town meta perfectly, which is something I did as scum on my second game and would desperatly try not to if I was town given I was the first lynch of my first game (which is also true for pubby).

[Swowl]

@ Joth - Feel my pain. Doesn't it suck to write all of it for nothing? Except... I expect it is not for nothing and it is just the weekend. I am home now and need to do my own re read and then I will let you know what I think of yours.

[EFHW]

massclaim?

Maybe? Scum can already guarantee avoiding the PGO by just killing in the neighborhood, so that edge is diminished. The fact that they chose not to do that last night tells me they’re not that worried about it though.

On the other hand, if we do have a tracker reporter the massclaim might allow them to negotiate with scum for a shared victory.

This post has me thinking town on Glooble.

[EFHW]

massclaim?

Maybe? Scum can already guarantee avoiding the PGO by just killing in the neighborhood, so that edge is diminished. The fact that they chose not to do that last night tells me they’re not that worried about it though.

Skum could be worried there is a Survivor.

If there is a Survivor and a Skum in the Hood then they would not of killed inside because they are 50-50 on hitting Survivor and then 50-50 on hitting themselves from that. That is a long shot, but just pointing it out.

And this post has me thinking town on DatSwan.

[Swowl]

vote: joth

SERIOUSLY!?!? &@$@$”@$&@$”@&”@&&@@&@0”$9!

vote: joth

SERIOUSLY!?!? &@$@$”@$&@$”@&”@&&@@&@0”$9!

Just finished rereading pubby and at least this is consistent with his entire game.

That being said, he has expressed 2 real opinions: joth and ashersky are scum. Joth being scum was D1, then he added ashersky D2. I could easily see him as scum just tunneling as a lurker to maintain the ability to "contribute" while not posting

I could also say E! Is lurking and picking on easy lynch targets. The words you string together are not a case. Or at at least more of a case anyone can make in 10 seconds ./

[ashersky]

Okay, as everyone has posted now, I think we can safely assume 3rd party chose Reporter.

No extra kills makes SK so highly unlikely that I’m just not considering it.
A Survivor would have claimed and won with scum by forcing a no lynch (survivor + traitor claim = 5 votes).
A second traitor would have claimed as in the survivor scenario.

The only issue I can see with this analysis is if the survivor prefers “trying to win with town” over “guaranteed win with mafia.”  In that case, it seems to me that claiming and stating as such would be a big boon to us.

Do folks agree that the survivor amongst EFHW, Datswan, and I should claim and pick a side?  Again, if they were against us, they would have already claimed anyway, so I see no downside (they can’t be killed at night so long as the other neighbors are alive) for anyone.

[ashersky]

(Note: per my own analysis I don’t actually think there is a survivor.)

[pingpongsam]

Is Mafia targeted traitor not a good space for SK exists?

[jotheonah]

I hope this isn’t scum!ash making sure the third-party traitor knows they have to claim to win...

[MiX]

I hope this isn’t scum!ash making sure the third-party traitor knows they have to claim to win...

They don't actually, if there's a traitor scum already won.

[jotheonah]

I hope this isn’t scum!ash making sure the third-party traitor knows they have to claim to win...

They don't actually, if there's a traitor scum already won.

There’s always a traitor. Stop trying so hard to townslip.

[pingpongsam]

I hope this isn’t scum!ash making sure the third-party traitor knows they have to claim to win...

They don't actually, if there's a traitor scum already won.

There’s always a traitor. Stop trying so hard to townslip.

There is certainly 1 traitor. 3rd party could make it 2. It’s a valid point that should it be slapped down.

[MiX]

I hope this isn’t scum!ash making sure the third-party traitor knows they have to claim to win...

They don't actually, if there's a traitor scum already won.

There’s always a traitor. Stop trying so hard to townslip.

You know what I mean, stop thinking I'm trying to townslip when I just mentioned something very important. In theory we're not endgamed, but in practice if the thirdparty's a traitor we have already lost.

[MiX]

Unvote

[Swowl]

Okay, as everyone has posted now, I think we can safely assume 3rd party chose Reporter.

No extra kills makes SK so highly unlikely that I’m just not considering it.
A Survivor would have claimed and won with scum by forcing a no lynch (survivor + traitor claim = 5 votes).
A second traitor would have claimed as in the survivor scenario.

The only issue I can see with this analysis is if the survivor prefers “trying to win with town” over “guaranteed win with mafia.”  In that case, it seems to me that claiming and stating as such would be a big boon to us.

Do folks agree that the survivor amongst EFHW, Datswan, and I should claim and pick a side?  Again, if they were against us, they would have already claimed anyway, so I see no downside (they can’t be killed at night so long as the other neighbors are alive) for anyone.

So I have this thing regarding the survivor claims and skum wins thing. I don't really know how to word it super well, but here it goes. Scenario:
Let's say you are a Skum player, and then a non-Skum player comes out today at this point and claims to be the Survivor.

From a skum players POV... I mean... they are gonna be suspicious right? I don't even know what exactly they could be suspicious about.

I am throwing around things in my head like "the claimed survivor could be a Traitor" but that would make no sense unless they somehow knew there were 2 Traitors, which can't happen... or like "A random VT could do it to just try to get Skum to out themselves" but then of course they could just do the same plan and if there IS a Survivor or a Traitor... skum would still win.

So all in all... I doubt at this point that skum would just all "raise their hands" if someone claimed Traitor or Survivor. IDK what I think they would do, but at a minimum I think they would hold one identity back.

Which leads me into the thought of the Survivor claiming.... If there is ever a point where a Survivor thought they were a 100% lock on a win with Skum -I imagine they would take it. This is for sure not a 100% lock. I am not going to speak of the defense that town could play, and neither should anyone else... but if you have not considered it... you should give it a moment's thought.

I also think that given the third party would have to pick Survivor over Traitor, that if there is a Survivor, they would prefer to win with Town. That may be naive, but it is my opinion.

However, because a Survivor's wincon is to BE ALIVE, and not to have a certain faction end up winning... I agree with ashes assessment of the situation in regards to claiming, because it helps Town. However, if me, Ash, or EFHW are a survivor... they don't really care if it helps town right now. So I don't think we will get a claim whether or not there is a Survivor.


@ Ashes - not trying to knock your plan, just pointing a thought out.

[jotheonah]

Alright, the day 2 reread was not as helpful as day 1. The one thing it did was made me less sure that the Hood is all town, and made me think that if there's non-town in it it's most likely EFHW, and she might be third party, not mafia. Notes below.

After everything, I feel like it confirmed most of my reads from day 1. Here's where I am now:

Scum
gkrieg
e
pingpongsam

Traitor
MiX

Survivor-Neighbor
EFHW

Town
joth
Glooble
ash
DatSwan
pubby

pps continues to be the scumread I'm least sure of. If I'm wrong about him, there's either scum in the neighborhood or it's Glooble. But I really doubt it's Glooble.

[jotheonah]

day 2 reread notes (skip if you want)

MiX's #556 is interesting, and gives more evidence toward him being the traitor. Glooble suggests that ADK is the scum kill and Eddie is the neighborhood kill, and MiX says it's obvious it's the other way around.

#576 is pubby's seventh post of the game and guess what he does? if you guessed "votes for me and doesn't meaningfully contribute", you get 1000 obvious points

a lot of day 2 so far is neighborhood claiming discussion and it's not particularly enlightening. I am townreading ash and Swan pretty hard, which makes me feel good about things.

e pops in at #627 to express a townread on MiX, who had been getting a lot of heat from me and ash. could be partner-y.

pubby's seventh and eighth posts of the game are a nice break from the pattern. pubby expresses some suspicion on MiX. doesn't vote though. then answers a question posed to him directly.

#645 Swan starts the mcmc wagon. Not particularly scummy, seems like legitimately stumped town defaulting to a lurker, but worth noting.

#655 don't like e's vote for me. seems opportunistic and insincere. As does gkrieg jumping on it 3 posts later. And gkrieg's #659 (would lynch pubby, wouldn't lynch MiX) scans with my reads.

#685 is pubby's ninth post of the game, asking if anyone else finds ash and pps suspicious. I really think pubby's town.

As of #687, his 10th post of the game, he is starting to actually play mafia. So I'm going to stop noting every pubby post.

This is weird:

Good, now scum thinks I'm traitor which means I live another day. Or at least they don't know who the real traitor is, which means they can't protect them. But seriously I don't think there's a way for third-party traitor to signal.

Like, why specify third-party traitor there? Kind of a nonsequitor. MiX could be really pushing his luck here with his joke-claim/real-claim.

Ok, if MiX WAS claiming traitor, PPS's #703 could be a "message received"

Unvote

The whole traitor thing leaves a pretty towny impression on MiX. I think I am going to get a solid chance to reread and post up tomorrow since I can play the father’s day leave me alone for a while card.

MiX at #714 is the first person post-claim to express the idea that the hood is all town.

Is it possible scum killed silverspawn because they're scared of a mass claim? He was the big advocate for one... gkrieg at least came out strongly anti-claim.

there's an ash-silver fight that gets pretty heated, but feels town v town. I'm getting sleepy.

e's #868 could also be "message received"

Swan's #882 has an interesting omission. He presents two counterfactuals (EFHW is Town and EFHW is Scum) in the process of discussing why she might out the neighborhood. But leaves out "EFHW is Survivor". Why? Because he's the survivor?

Remember this case?

If mafia thinks the 5 v. 7 scenario is likely, then the "EFHW claims neighbor and tries to get ash or Swan lynched" theory makes a lot of sense. Because they need to ensure a mislynch, which means limiting the lynch candidates to a group that they know doesn't include the traitor. It also has the side effect of preventing the lynch from outing a power role, but if you think you can concievably win that night, who cares?

This was smart and is still possible. And EFHW's response to it is pretty scummy.

gkrieg's #1003 is yet another opportunistic scummy jump onto a town mislynch close to deadline. Honestly we should be lynching gkreig just based on his voting record.

[EFHW]

I agree that e, gkrieg and pps are the least towny players. ash is towny, but idk if I buy it. Those 4 are probably my lynch pool. joth is going the extra mile.

[2.71828.....]

Pretty much agree with joth here except his assumption that the neighborhood is all town. Switch me with EFHW and we are good

[pubby]

I agree that e, gkrieg and pps are the least towny players. ash is towny, but idk if I buy it. Those 4 are probably my lynch pool. joth is going the extra mile.

Thoughts on MiX?

[EFHW]

I agree that e, gkrieg and pps are the least towny players. ash is towny, but idk if I buy it. Those 4 are probably my lynch pool. joth is going the extra mile.

Thoughts on MiX?

He's been kind of off. He doesn't feel like scum, but doesn't feel like town, so 3rd party is probably the best guess for him right now.

[EFHW]

If he's reporter, then I assume lynching him would be equivalent to a mislynch in terms of non-acum vs scum numbers. Do we know scum's wincon? I'll check.

[EFHW]

If he's reporter, then I assume lynching him would be equivalent to a mislynch in terms of non-acum vs scum numbers. Do we know scum's wincon? I'll check.

I couldn't find it. 

This isn't a blatant attempt for town cred.

[ashersky]

Okay, as everyone has posted now, I think we can safely assume 3rd party chose Reporter.

No extra kills makes SK so highly unlikely that I’m just not considering it.
A Survivor would have claimed and won with scum by forcing a no lynch (survivor + traitor claim = 5 votes).
A second traitor would have claimed as in the survivor scenario.

The only issue I can see with this analysis is if the survivor prefers “trying to win with town” over “guaranteed win with mafia.”  In that case, it seems to me that claiming and stating as such would be a big boon to us.

Do folks agree that the survivor amongst EFHW, Datswan, and I should claim and pick a side?  Again, if they were against us, they would have already claimed anyway, so I see no downside (they can’t be killed at night so long as the other neighbors are alive) for anyone.

So I have this thing regarding the survivor claims and skum wins thing. I don't really know how to word it super well, but here it goes. Scenario:
Let's say you are a Skum player, and then a non-Skum player comes out today at this point and claims to be the Survivor.

From a skum players POV... I mean... they are gonna be suspicious right? I don't even know what exactly they could be suspicious about.

I am throwing around things in my head like "the claimed survivor could be a Traitor" but that would make no sense unless they somehow knew there were 2 Traitors, which can't happen... or like "A random VT could do it to just try to get Skum to out themselves" but then of course they could just do the same plan and if there IS a Survivor or a Traitor... skum would still win.

So all in all... I doubt at this point that skum would just all "raise their hands" if someone claimed Traitor or Survivor. IDK what I think they would do, but at a minimum I think they would hold one identity back.

Which leads me into the thought of the Survivor claiming.... If there is ever a point where a Survivor thought they were a 100% lock on a win with Skum -I imagine they would take it. This is for sure not a 100% lock. I am not going to speak of the defense that town could play, and neither should anyone else... but if you have not considered it... you should give it a moment's thought.

I also think that given the third party would have to pick Survivor over Traitor, that if there is a Survivor, they would prefer to win with Town. That may be naive, but it is my opinion.

However, because a Survivor's wincon is to BE ALIVE, and not to have a certain faction end up winning... I agree with ashes assessment of the situation in regards to claiming, because it helps Town. However, if me, Ash, or EFHW are a survivor... they don't really care if it helps town right now. So I don't think we will get a claim whether or not there is a Survivor.


@ Ashes - not trying to knock your plan, just pointing a thought out.

Thanks for the thoughtful response. I’m not sure about your “town defense” against a survivor plan, though. You don’t want to make it public, but if you don’t vocalize the threat, not sure it works.

For example, if we say “we will lynch the survivor if they claim and go with scum...” it doesn’t work unless scum participates. I mean, maybe they do since not voting is just giving themselves away, but at that point it is a full scum claim away from just forcing survivor to win with them.

I don’t see any other “defense” against them, given we have no other real power.

A non-claimed survivor or the reporter are our only hopes, not considering a claimed town-only SS style survivor, which I doubt would exist, so I think we just go with that and hope for the best?

I for one would love to see a VT claim traitor to see if it works, by the way.

[ashersky]

Joth’s efforts basically make him town for me at this point, so I trust his reads, whether correct or not, to be honest.

I think MiX is the wild card that’s messing with my reads the most.

[MiX]

What if all the "message recieved" posts that joth was talking about is actually scum thinking I'm traitor and acknowledging as such? Think about it, if traitor doesn't know scum, then I can't signal more than "I am traitor" (if I did know scum I could namedrop them in a very obvious way or something).

Joth’s efforts basically make him town for me at this point, so I trust his reads, whether correct or not, to be honest.

I'm basically here right now, but I don't know who's scummier: gkrieg or e. Does anyone have a preference?

[MiX]

Okay let's get PoEing, shall we?

Let's assume there's no Survivor+Scum in neighbor, because then they should probably have claimed and vigged the other neighbor (maybe, it's not as clear cut as EFHW thinks but it's close). Then out of (EFHW/ash/Swan) there's 2 town. Now, we know that joth is town because there's no way in hell scum!joth makes that much effort, his behavior comes from town!joth much more.

If I'm town, that leaves (pubby/pps/e/gkrieg/Glooble/Neighbor) for our 5 scum. This means that if we can determine even ONE town from these (well, from the first 5), we can PoE the entire scum team. The problem? I'm stuck between pubby and Glooble for town. However, this still means e/gkrieg is scum.

Vote: gkrieg

[EFHW]

You left out the neighbors as possible scum.

Why are you doing everything so fast?

[MiX]

You left out the neighbors as possible scum.

Why are you doing everything so fast?

Because PoE is amazing and rereading is haaaard. Besides pps/e/gkrieg have gotten zero pressure and, thus, have pretty much nothing to reread.

Only 1 neighbor can be scum if we believe survivor+scum would vig the other town, and even without that there must be 1 town in there.

[EFHW]

But you are assuming 5 scum for your POE, and treating yourself and joth as conf!town.
 

[MiX]

But you are assuming 5 scum for your POE, and treating yourself and joth as conf!town.
 

There's 5 scum (because why would I assume third-party wants to side with town?) and me/joth are conf!town from my perspective, so what's wrong? You can reach gkrieg is scum from other PoVs, but I only need mine to vote. It should work even if you don't have conf!town reads from anyone outside the hood, just from how towny joth/Glooble/pubby are.

[Glooble]

I'm townreading gkrieg, partially based on gut and partially based on something I don't really want to disclose.

Anyone have any idea what silverspawn was referring to here? I wrote it down in my notes and it looks like he saw a soft claim, but I didn’t find anything in any of gkrieg’s posts that looked like one.

I think I could get behind a gkrieg lynch. My townread on him was half that and half the fact that he seemed to have a genuine sense of urgency about the number of scum and how quickly the game might end, which seemed more towny than scummy to me.

[EFHW]

But you are assuming 5 scum for your POE, and treating yourself and joth as conf!town.
 

There's 5 scum (because why would I assume third-party wants to side with town?) and me/joth are conf!town from my perspective, so what's wrong? You can reach gkrieg is scum from other PoVs, but I only need mine to vote. It should work even if you don't have conf!town reads from anyone outside the hood, just from how towny joth/Glooble/pubby are.

It's just that it makes the POE not that useful for the rest of us.

[MiX]

I'm townreading gkrieg, partially based on gut and partially based on something I don't really want to disclose.

Anyone have any idea what silverspawn was referring to here? I wrote it down in my notes and it looks like he saw a soft claim, but I didn’t find anything in any of gkrieg’s posts that looked like one.

I think I could get behind a gkrieg lynch. My townread on him was half that and half the fact that he seemed to have a genuine sense of urgency about the number of scum and how quickly the game might end, which seemed more towny than scummy to me.

I also get that towny vibe, that whenever I look at him I go "yeah, yeah, he's town, let's move along". Makes me want him dead more. I can get behind a pps/e lynch as well, maybe even more. But I mostly want gkrieg to tell me why they're not scum.

But you are assuming 5 scum for your POE, and treating yourself and joth as conf!town.
 

There's 5 scum (because why would I assume third-party wants to side with town?) and me/joth are conf!town from my perspective, so what's wrong? You can reach gkrieg is scum from other PoVs, but I only need mine to vote. It should work even if you don't have conf!town reads from anyone outside the hood, just from how towny joth/Glooble/pubby are.

It's just that it makes the POE not that useful for the rest of us.

Just join the cool kids and sheep joth, that's the correct move here.

[MiX]

Okay, okay, I'll ISO my scumreads to show precisely how much they're not doing anything this game. Let's start with pps, that should be easy.


So, pps. Talks about how much I play like him. Then he says he doesn't like setup talk. He leaves his vote on me from RVS, and that's all there is for D1. In D2, he starts by lowering his scumread on me (which could be scum thinking I'm traitor, wouldn't that be fun), but really his play's summarized in this post:

I'm basically null on everyone.

Where I think he "scumreads" joth and Glooble and townreads the neighbors. And then he votes on mcmc in EoD. That's all for D2.


So as you can see, very eloquent. Now E, our next scum!lurker:


D1 he does the following: scumreads ss, townreads ash, scumreads Swan, votes pubby (L-1) and that's all.

D2 he goes against hood claiming, townreads MiX, scumreads joth, townreads Glooble, makes a case on EFHW (oh look, effort) and...yep, that's all.


As you can see, these 2 don't really have a lot more than reads. Really, the only real case in these 2 players in e's EFHW case, which was a bunch of quotes, essencially. They don't even vote that often. But surely there's a lot for gkrieg right? Please?


RVS votes Eddie, disencourages me from voting him, scumreads ash, something about me wanting to join the townblock, defending against my "gkrieg's helping traitor" vote by deflecting onto EFHW (that was smart, good job gkrieg), scumreads Swan, actually provides a good case for Swan (scummy because I think Swan's town), townreads mcmc, pushes pps a little (pps doesn't really respond), townreads MiX, I think he townreads debate? Regardless he votes pubby and that ends D1.

Okay, I shouldn't had done the same to gkrieg as I did to the others, he's not really lurking. Still, his D1 is deflecting votes, making cases for town, "pushing" scum that leads to nothing and voting for pubby, who I think is town right now. Now, D2:

Well, I'm not going to detail everything, but gkrieg essencially starts scumreading joth and townreading me, then he supports lynching outside the hood, in his popsquiz he has "MiX, Swan, mcmc, pubby" in "scummy/null" (Swan's mostly there because he townreads ash and EFHW), then he votes mcmc.


What do I get from this? gkrieg is trying. And he really doesn't like votes on him. Not much else to say.


So there's the scumteam in its glory. Or at least part of it, maybe 1's traitor/third-party. They're all lurking. No great cases. None of them go for debatepro, none of them go for ss, which seems to be what town's been doing. They either put votes on lynch wagons (e/gkrieg in D1, pps/gkrieg in D2) or they push cases on town (e pushed EFHW D2, gkrieg pushed Swan D1 with E's support). But I think the evidence all comes crashing down on E here, more than the other 2. So,

Vote: E instead. But really it's all 3 of them.

[Glooble]

What do we make of gkrieg pointing out the possibility of the PGO causing an early MYLO? I think that's the most memorable thing he's done this game. Joth found it slightly scummy whereas I think it's slightly towny.

[MiX]

What do we make of gkrieg pointing out the possibility of the PGO causing an early MYLO? I think that's the most memorable thing he's done this game. Joth found it slightly scummy whereas I think it's slightly towny.

We didn't need PGO to do that, for all we know we're endgamed already. I think it was null, his specific "D1 is MyLo" scenario is completely useless whereas my "D2 is MyLo" is useful, given that it might've happened this game and we're not endgamed due to a formality.

[jotheonah]

What do we make of gkrieg pointing out the possibility of the PGO causing an early MYLO? I think that's the most memorable thing he's done this game. Joth found it slightly scummy whereas I think it's slightly towny.

Setup talk is the easiest way to contribute early. It often comes from scum.

[faust]

Vote Count 3.2

gkrieg13 (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (2): pingpongsam, pubby
2.71828..... (1): MiX

Not Voting (6): DatSwan, EFHW, 2.71828....., ashersky, gkrieg13, Glooble

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends on June 28, 2019, 10:10:00 am.

[Glooble]

What do we make of gkrieg pointing out the possibility of the PGO causing an early MYLO? I think that's the most memorable thing he's done this game. Joth found it slightly scummy whereas I think it's slightly towny.

Setup talk is the easiest way to contribute early. It often comes from scum.

I understand that in theory, but I think people on this board like to say that without actually looking into the nuances of the specific setup points raised and whether they are actually pro-town.

I think gkrieg's was, because it was, in my mind, fully possible that the town PGO, if they exist, hadn't considered this angle.

[ashersky]

Hey all, sorry for only flitting in and out.  I have a huge thing on Friday for which I must prepare which is taking most of my attention and energy. I like the thinking coming out of some nice analysis posts. Of the wagons, I find joth’s the worst, and wonder if that’s not the easy one to pile on.

My lynch choices are probably MiX and pubby right now?  I admit to not knowing them as well as some vets (well, MiX is always just an enigma, which I assume is on purpose for scum reasons).

[EFHW]

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps

[EFHW]

Would also vote e.

[jotheonah]

Hey all, sorry for only flitting in and out.  I have a huge thing on Friday for which I must prepare which is taking most of my attention and energy. I like the thinking coming out of some nice analysis posts. Of the wagons, I find joth’s the worst, and wonder if that’s not the easy one to pile on.

My lynch choices are probably MiX and pubby right now?  I admit to not knowing them as well as some vets (well, MiX is always just an enigma, which I assume is on purpose for scum reasons).

I’ll lynch MiX but strongly prefer gkrieg, e, or pps. Any thoughts on those three?

[Glooble]

If we're consolidating, I think I would my preferences would be thus:

{e, pps} --> {gkrieg}--> {MiX}

[jotheonah]

I mean we DO have four days. So we're not scrambling for a lynch. But why drag it out?

[MiX]

If we're consolidating, I think I would my preferences would be thus:

{e, pps} --> {gkrieg}--> {MiX}

That's my idea right now (damn you gkrieg and your scummy townieness), with a caveat that lynching me ends the game. But if the other 3 are somehow town, then yeah.

I mean we DO have four days. So we're not scrambling for a lynch. But why drag it out?

I would like for them to defend themselves, post their reads and why they're super town and they have done nothing but help town throughout the game. I mean, let's face it, one of them might be town, right? But I actually want them all dead. E first because they haven't flinched once. Ever.

[2.71828.....]

If we're consolidating, I think I would my preferences would be thus:

{e, pps} --> {gkrieg}--> {MiX}

That's my idea right now (damn you gkrieg and your scummy townieness), with a caveat that lynching me ends the game. But if the other 3 are somehow town, then yeah.

I mean we DO have four days. So we're not scrambling for a lynch. But why drag it out?

I would like for them to defend themselves, post their reads and why they're super town and they have done nothing but help town throughout the game. I mean, let's face it, one of them might be town, right? But I actually want them all dead. E first because they haven't flinched once. Ever.

What does flinch mean in this context? It sounds like something I wouldn't do as town or scum. Have you ever seen me flinch? Ever?

[2.71828.....]

I don't have a lot that I can do to defend my play, but I can try to lynch scum.

Joth and Ash are my top two town reads
Then Glooble.

That leaves me 4 scum in
PPS
pubby
MiX
Gkrieg
Datswan
EFHW

I totally reject the idea that scum takes zero enhancements, and I also think scum wants to know all the information. Which means even if neighborhood isn't mathematically (or whatever you all decided) the best, I think they took it.

So one scum in EFHW, Datswan, Ash. I choose you, EFHW! D2 came out looking to pin a fellow neighbor as scum, when that didn't work backed off the idea and somehow no one thinks that is scummy. It also makes Datswan town. So now....

3 scum in
Pubby
PPS
MiX
Gkrieg

Pubby is getting some town reads from the active folk, but guess what? Activity does not mean accuracy. Pubby's tunneling is a perfect way to hide scum play, then I bring it up and they mention going back and relooking things. And where is that relook?

PPS is getting some scum reads, but they feel more PoE driven than anything. But then again, PoE is strong here.

Gkrieg and MiX I am the most undecided on. I feel fairly confident that gkrieg is scum, I just don't trust it. And I feel fairly confident that MiX is town, I just don't trust that either.

But I will vote what I do think is our best option right now.

Vote: pubby

I prefer EFHW but there is still too much lingering "neighbors are masons" sentiment going around for that right now.

[gkrieg13]

#117 gkrieg points out that scum doesn’t have any control over whether we’re in Lylo day 2

“If you look at the setup, scum has no way of influencing this set of things to happen, so I don't know why it has any affect good or bad for town.

this is the sort of info scum is more likely to have at their fingertips than town…

This is also the sort of info that someone who had posted about us being in MYLO D2 would have at their fingertips because they literally just looked at the setup.

[gkrieg13]

oh and vote: gkrieg

I may do a day 2 reread later this weekend, but I'm wiped out for tonight. That was legit like more than an hour of work.

I'm confused how this came out of your reread of D1.

[gkrieg13]

massclaim?

Maybe? Scum can already guarantee avoiding the PGO by just killing in the neighborhood, so that edge is diminished. The fact that they chose not to do that last night tells me they’re not that worried about it though.

Skum could be worried there is a Survivor.

If there is a Survivor and a Skum in the Hood then they would not of killed inside because they are 50-50 on hitting Survivor and then 50-50 on hitting themselves from that. That is a long shot, but just pointing it out.

This is actually a good point I think.

[gkrieg13]

Wow so everyone’s just ignoring the massive reread and wall of text I just did?

mass prod request: pingpongsam, e, pubby

Sure, ok, Vote: joth
That’s where I left off yestergameday. For now I will assume the effort is the final scum push to look towny and try to maybe have one bus member in a pool of otherwise townies and maybe even a 3p.

I’ll give it a more thorough read later torealday.  This should satisfy the desire for an immediate response, no?

Well I guess that settles that. pps is the last scum. If anyone seriously thinks that I do all that to stick the landing in a scum game I'm already winning by a mile, I really don't know what to tell you. Not even reading or engaging with my case? You are either scum or the laziest town player I've ever seen, so I'm charitably going to assume you're scum.

I don't think you posted that because you thought you were getting lynched, but you may have posted that to stop a partner from getting lynched. Either way, I think you are town.

[gkrieg13]

Sorry, had a speech contest today that I have been prepping for for weeks so I had less free time available.  I skimmed but did not give joth’s posts enough attention. I should be able to do that on Sunday.

In the meantime, I feel like voting is dangerous.  There has been talk of daychat being possible, planned team quick lynched are a thing. So I feel like even L-2 or 3 is dangerous, although long stretches at that level would highly suggest a scum wagon.

I mean yes and no. It is important we don't give scum the opportunity to quickhammer, but it is possible that only 3 scum know the identity of the others, so crazy quickhammers are unlikely. They are also trying to not lynch the traitor, so wagons that sit long at L-3 or L-2 are not necessarily on scum.

[gkrieg13]

Sorry but an old friend came into town and it is his birthday today so I’ll be pretty VLA today and tomorrow. I’ll get to this on Monday probably.

Aren't you usually unavailable weekends?

Yes, but I at least am still reading along. Was very V/LA this weekend.

[gkrieg13]

MiX is jumping his vote around a lot.

[gkrieg13]

Okay, as everyone has posted now, I think we can safely assume 3rd party chose Reporter.

No extra kills makes SK so highly unlikely that I’m just not considering it.
A Survivor would have claimed and won with scum by forcing a no lynch (survivor + traitor claim = 5 votes).
A second traitor would have claimed as in the survivor scenario.

The only issue I can see with this analysis is if the survivor prefers “trying to win with town” over “guaranteed win with mafia.”  In that case, it seems to me that claiming and stating as such would be a big boon to us.

Do folks agree that the survivor amongst EFHW, Datswan, and I should claim and pick a side?  Again, if they were against us, they would have already claimed anyway, so I see no downside (they can’t be killed at night so long as the other neighbors are alive) for anyone.

I completely agree with this analysis.

[gkrieg13]

I hope this isn’t scum!ash making sure the third-party traitor knows they have to claim to win...

They don't actually, if there's a traitor scum already won.

There’s always a traitor. Stop trying so hard to townslip.

You know what I mean, stop thinking I'm trying to townslip when I just mentioned something very important. In theory we're not endgamed, but in practice if the thirdparty's a traitor we have already lost.

This very clearly does not read like a townslip or attempted one to me.

[gkrieg13]

gkrieg's #1003 is yet another opportunistic scummy jump onto a town mislynch close to deadline. Honestly we should be lynching gkreig just based on his voting record.

What about that vote is opportunistic?

[gkrieg13]

Okay let's get PoEing, shall we?

Let's assume there's no Survivor+Scum in neighbor, because then they should probably have claimed and vigged the other neighbor (maybe, it's not as clear cut as EFHW thinks but it's close). Then out of (EFHW/ash/Swan) there's 2 town. Now, we know that joth is town because there's no way in hell scum!joth makes that much effort, his behavior comes from town!joth much more.

If I'm town, that leaves (pubby/pps/e/gkrieg/Glooble/Neighbor) for our 5 scum. This means that if we can determine even ONE town from these (well, from the first 5), we can PoE the entire scum team. The problem? I'm stuck between pubby and Glooble for town. However, this still means e/gkrieg is scum.

Vote: gkrieg

Ya I really hate this MYLO POE that seems to land on me every single game lately.

[gkrieg13]

But you are assuming 5 scum for your POE, and treating yourself and joth as conf!town.
 

There's 5 scum (because why would I assume third-party wants to side with town?) and me/joth are conf!town from my perspective, so what's wrong? You can reach gkrieg is scum from other PoVs, but I only need mine to vote. It should work even if you don't have conf!town reads from anyone outside the hood, just from how towny joth/Glooble/pubby are.

Your assumption that there are 5 scum is most likely not true.

[gkrieg13]

[gkrieg] scumreads Swan, actually provides a good case for Swan (scummy because I think Swan's town)

How is this scummy?  Was the case scummy or just that it was on a townread (that you have now, but probably didn't have then)?

[gkrieg13]

What do we make of gkrieg pointing out the possibility of the PGO causing an early MYLO? I think that's the most memorable thing he's done this game. Joth found it slightly scummy whereas I think it's slightly towny.

Setup talk is the easiest way to contribute early. It often comes from scum.

I agree with this in general, but I pointed it out because it could change how the PGO played D1.

[gkrieg13]

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps

Uh, I don't follow this analysis at all..., like what? Someone sitting at L-4 does not mean that someone is scum at this point.

And what about that wagon makes you think pubby is town?

[gkrieg13]

I think my plan is to reread pubby, e, PPS, MiX.

I'm pretty confident at this point that the twins are town. I also think there is probably scum in the neighborhood, because if there weren't, I think people would be advocating we lynch there today, because they can't hit the traitor that way.

[MiX]

[gkrieg] scumreads Swan, actually provides a good case for Swan (scummy because I think Swan's town)

How is this scummy?  Was the case scummy or just that it was on a townread (that you have now, but probably didn't have then)?

He was towny back at the time (well, maybe more null...) and the case was, well, "big" for D1. It's on #280 by the way.

[EFHW]

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps

Uh, I don't follow this analysis at all..., like what? Someone sitting at L-4 does not mean that someone is scum at this point.

And what about that wagon makes you think pubby is town?

Quicklynch + nk = scum win.

Re pubby, there was no reason to bus at that point and several of the scummier players are on that wagon. Chances of you, MiX, e, and Glooble all being town?

[gkrieg13]

I mean a 4- person quicklynch is pretty unreasonable.

[Swowl]

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps

I could be missing something from context.. but I believe the quoted would be 7 votes on Pubby putting him at L-1 at that time right? Not L-4?

Uh, I don't follow this analysis at all..., like what? Someone sitting at L-4 does not mean that someone is scum at this point.

And what about that wagon makes you think pubby is town?

[Swowl]

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps

Uh, I don't follow this analysis at all..., like what? Someone sitting at L-4 does not mean that someone is scum at this point.

And what about that wagon makes you think pubby is town?

Quote fail:

I could be missing something from context.. but I believe the quoted would be 7 votes on Pubby putting him at L-1 at that time right? Not L-4?

[Swowl]

That one post was not what I intended to contribute today, but I am exhausted. I will get back on it in the AM.

[jotheonah]

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps

Uh, I don't follow this analysis at all..., like what? Someone sitting at L-4 does not mean that someone is scum at this point.

And what about that wagon makes you think pubby is town?

Quicklynch + nk = scum win.

Re pubby, there was no reason to bus at that point and several of the scummier players are on that wagon. Chances of you, MiX, e, and Glooble all being town?

My argument is that at the time scum thought debate was the traitor, so we’ll find them amongst the people who stayed on pubby and didn’t want to move to debate. Bolstering this is the fact that the derailing of the pubby wagon was done by conf!town Eddie pretty singlehandedly.

[pingpongsam]

Unvote

I really don't know what to think but I am quite convinced joth is town at this point. Scum clearly would not take the bait, either.

I still owe us all a silverspawn reread. Drowning in work atm.

[2.71828.....]

Unvote

I really don't know what to think but I am quite convinced joth is town at this point. Scum clearly would not take the bait, either.

I still owe us all a silverspawn reread. Drowning in work atm.

Take what bait? Saying that you placed a bad vote and are scum for it?

Because joth didn't actually take any bait, they kept their cool and I don't think they have voted at all today. I mean, there was a reaction post, but it didn't include a vote

[2.71828.....]

Re-framing scummy play as "bait for scum to jump on"

I don't know, is this bait for me to vote you here as well? How can I know what is bait and what is just scummy?

[MiX]

Re-framing scummy play as "bait for scum to jump on"

I don't know, is this bait for me to vote you here as well? How can I know what is bait and what is just scummy?

I think it's town bait so that he dies instead of you. That's the only thing that's keeping me from voting pps right now.

[2.71828.....]

Re-framing scummy play as "bait for scum to jump on"

I don't know, is this bait for me to vote you here as well? How can I know what is bait and what is just scummy?

I think it's town bait so that he dies instead of you. That's the only thing that's keeping me from voting pps right now.

So you think we are both scum but he decided to get himself lynched instead of me? That doesn't make any sense. Why would an alleged partner of mine try to redirect a lynch onto themself?

[2.71828.....]

I mean it is a creative thought to fit things nicely into the narrative that you have created

[MiX]

Re-framing scummy play as "bait for scum to jump on"

I don't know, is this bait for me to vote you here as well? How can I know what is bait and what is just scummy?

I think it's town bait so that he dies instead of you. That's the only thing that's keeping me from voting pps right now.

So you think we are both scum but he decided to get himself lynched instead of me? That doesn't make any sense. Why would an alleged partner of mine try to redirect a lynch onto themself?

Pps does weird things for weird reasons, I'm not sure why he wants to die, but he sure does, so there has to be a good reason for it.

I mean it is a creative thought to fit things nicely into the narrative that you have created

Thank you.

[gkrieg13]

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps

Uh, I don't follow this analysis at all..., like what? Someone sitting at L-4 does not mean that someone is scum at this point.

And what about that wagon makes you think pubby is town?

Quote fail:

I could be missing something from context.. but I believe the quoted would be 7 votes on Pubby putting him at L-1 at that time right? Not L-4?

Sorry, there were two thoughts in the post I quoted. One was saying that joth sitting at L-4 for more than a day indicates that someone on the wagon or joth himself is scum, which is what the first comment was.

The second thought was the thing about pubby, who was indeed at L-1.

[gkrieg13]

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps

Uh, I don't follow this analysis at all..., like what? Someone sitting at L-4 does not mean that someone is scum at this point.

And what about that wagon makes you think pubby is town?

Quicklynch + nk = scum win.

Re pubby, there was no reason to bus at that point and several of the scummier players are on that wagon. Chances of you, MiX, e, and Glooble all being town?

My argument is that at the time scum thought debate was the traitor, so we’ll find them amongst the people who stayed on pubby and didn’t want to move to debate. Bolstering this is the fact that the derailing of the pubby wagon was done by conf!town Eddie pretty singlehandedly.

Why would scum think that debatepro was the traitor? I guess I just don't think this is a very strong argument. Town derail wagons on scum more often than scum do IMO.

[gkrieg13]

Re-framing scummy play as "bait for scum to jump on"

I don't know, is this bait for me to vote you here as well? How can I know what is bait and what is just scummy?

I think it's town bait so that he dies instead of you. That's the only thing that's keeping me from voting pps right now.

So you think we are both scum but he decided to get himself lynched instead of me? That doesn't make any sense. Why would an alleged partner of mine try to redirect a lynch onto themself?

Pps does weird things for weird reasons, I'm not sure why he wants to die, but he sure does, so there has to be a good reason for it.

I mean it is a creative thought to fit things nicely into the narrative that you have created

Thank you.

Ya, this makes no sense from MiX.

[jotheonah]

The two person wagon on Joth has been there for over a day. That suggests that one of joth, pps, pubby is scum.

Pubby wagon at its height (I know others have also looked at this):
pubby (7): silverspawn, mcmcsalot, Glooble, MiX, gkrieg13, Debatepro, 2.71828.....

I'm thinking pubby is town. vote: pps

Uh, I don't follow this analysis at all..., like what? Someone sitting at L-4 does not mean that someone is scum at this point.

And what about that wagon makes you think pubby is town?

Quicklynch + nk = scum win.

Re pubby, there was no reason to bus at that point and several of the scummier players are on that wagon. Chances of you, MiX, e, and Glooble all being town?

My argument is that at the time scum thought debate was the traitor, so we’ll find them amongst the people who stayed on pubby and didn’t want to move to debate. Bolstering this is the fact that the derailing of the pubby wagon was done by conf!town Eddie pretty singlehandedly.

Why would scum think that debatepro was the traitor? I guess I just don't think this is a very strong argument. Town derail wagons on scum more often than scum do IMO.

There was a lot of discussion about it at the time. That some of his setup y’all could be traitor signaling.

[Swowl]

I have done my read through and I don't have a hell of a lot. I will post some conclusions when I have them written up.

Summary for now:

I think MiX is either Town or Traitor - I can't decide which.
I think there is Skum in [Joth, PPS]
I think there is Mafia in [Glooble, GK, E!]

So...
- [Mix, Joth, PPs] - Traitor(s)/Mafia at a absolute max of 2 (either 2 Traitors, 1 Traitor and 1 Mafia, 1 Traitor, or 1 Mafia) ... but there has to be 2 Traitors for that to be a real option... so that is not the best jumping off point.

- [MiX, Glooble, GK, E!] - Traitors(s)/Mafia at an absolute max of 3 (either 2 Traitor and 1 Mafia, 1 Traitor and 2 Mafia, or 1 Traitor and 1 Mafia) ... so, 1-2 Skum in [Glooble, GK, E!, MiX] most likely... kind of my favorite at this point.

- If MiX is NOT a Traitor, then I thin kit is either Joth or PPS. That leaves the same scenario as above, but replace MiX with Joth/PPS. Again, because of the unlikelihood of 2 Traitors, I don;t think this is the best pool to choose from.


If none of those 5 above are Skum, that means the entire Skum team would have to consist of [EFHW, Pubby, Ashes, Swan]... which is impossible because EFHW, Ashes, Swan are all in the Hood (this is assuming only 1 traitor, but still either way it doesn't make sense).

There can also only be one maximum skum in [EFHW, Ashes, Swan], and none of them can be a Traitor.

So there are a minimum of 3 Skum in [PPS, GK, E!, Joth, MiX, Pubby, Glooble].


Again, notes will follow. But right now I am at:
E!->Glooble->GK in that order.

That is mainly based on VCA. My main pool is [Glooble, GK, E!]. Day 1 ended with Glooble on the lynch and GK/E! off. Day 2 ended with Glooble and GK on the lynch and E! off.

I think there is Mafia in those three, but I want to believe there are 2/3 in regards to Skum.
Glooble and GK were on the same wagons all the times. E! was at some points and ended up always off. Adding in how many unknowns/towns there were to hammer all the wagons, and the E! L-1 vote on Day 1... I am left wanting to lynch E! today.

[ashersky]

Still crazy swamped this week, basically until Friday night my time. When is deadline?

I am reading any chance I get.

[faust]

Vote Count 3.3

gkrieg13 (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (1): pubby
2.71828..... (1): MiX
pingpongsam (1): EFHW
pubby (1): 2.71828.....

Not Voting (5): DatSwan, ashersky, gkrieg13, Glooble, pingpongsam

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends on June 28, 2019, 10:10:00 am, in 48 hours.

[ashersky]

5 wagons, zero overlap. That’s something.

[jotheonah]

vote: e

This seems like the best consensus wagon and I think it has an extremely good chance of hitting scum.

Ash, Friday morning is the deadline. So we're at about T-48 hours.

[jotheonah]

5 wagons, zero overlap. That’s something.

Some of that is due to your own caution against providing the opportunity for quickhammers...

[Swowl]

holding off until until after work today (10 hours from now or so) then will be placing a vote.

[2.71828.....]

vote: e

This seems like the best consensus wagon and I think it has an extremely good chance of hitting scum.

Ash, Friday morning is the deadline. So we're at about T-48 hours.

No, vote: PPS is better

[gkrieg13]

Won’t get to this until tomorrow unfortunately.

[EFHW]

Switching to e tomorrow,  when I can monitor for quicklynch.

[ashersky]

vote: pubby

To ensure I have a vote down. I should be around at deadline; my huge test is in 15 or so hours.

[jotheonah]

vote: pubby

To ensure I have a vote down. I should be around at deadline; my huge test is in 15 or so hours.

Ugh, why pubby? Is it because you’re scum?

[jotheonah]

Pubby is obvtown for myriad reasons. Please put your vote somewhere real.

[Glooble]

I'm happy with e or pps, but I was hoping to ISO them and decide which was scummier. But I don't know when I'll have both the time and the mental energy to do that (primary debate kept me up past my bedtime last night and I'm running on fumes.)

[gkrieg13]

I'm happy with e or pps, but I was hoping to ISO them and decide which was scummier. But I don't know when I'll have both the time and the mental energy to do that (primary debate kept me up past my bedtime last night and I'm running on fumes.)

This is where I am as well. E has been townier lately but I feel like I really need to reread but I’m not sure it is going to happen. Chances are they are both scum anyways.

[jotheonah]

I don't think we're going to win this game. In fact, I don't know if there's anything to be done to prevent handing scum a flawless victory. Maybe we should massclaim and try to catch scum more definitively.

[MiX]

I don't think we're going to win this game. In fact, I don't know if there's anything to be done to prevent handing scum a flawless victory. Maybe we should massclaim and try to catch scum more definitively.

We kill e/pps, one of them is clearly scum, and there's a good chance both are. Trust me, we're not leaving this game empty handed. We're going to lose, however. That said, with lynching the towniest man alive (mcmc) I'd say we deserve it, so meh.

vote: pubby

To ensure I have a vote down. I should be around at deadline; my huge test is in 15 or so hours.

Ugh, why pubby? Is it because you’re scum?

Yes. Yes it is.

[jotheonah]

We’re going to kill the wrong one. We need every. Single. Town. Player, PLUS the third party to vote together to lynch scum here. Scum won’t bus because they don’t need to. They will make super lame excuses to vote for town players. It’s happening already.

I don’t think there’s any way in hell this town can vote all as a block. So at the last minute, desperate to get a lynch, we’ll lynch someone we can successfully lynch, which will be the scummiest town player who has a few scum votes on them. And then we’ll lose.

[Glooble]

I don't think we're going to win this game. In fact, I don't know if there's anything to be done to prevent handing scum a flawless victory. Maybe we should massclaim and try to catch scum more definitively.

That's a very defeatist attitude, but a mass claim is a very bad idea. If we have a tracker-reporter, then the moment they know who exactly they need to kill to win, they will make a deal with scum to make that happen.

[jotheonah]

I don't think we're going to win this game. In fact, I don't know if there's anything to be done to prevent handing scum a flawless victory. Maybe we should massclaim and try to catch scum more definitively.

That's a very defeatist attitude, but a mass claim is a very bad idea. If we have a tracker-reporter, then the moment they know who exactly they need to kill to win, they will make a deal with scum to make that happen.

What I want to say is "the only way we win is if everyone votes for who I'm voting for" but I feel like that's not going to fly. I guess I just need every town player to internalize that this lynch is going to be very, very hard and if for even a minute it starts to feel not hard that means it's probably a mislynch. I'm in a spot where, if even one of my scumreads votes for someone I immediately reconsider my vote on them (MiX is driving me crazy in this regard).

I keep coming back to e and gkrieg. I think they are our best bets. PPS could be scum but very well could be town. Same with ash. Same with, loathe as I am to say it at this point, MiX. pubby is definitely town. Glooble might be scum but I really doubt it.

gkrieg, for whatever reason, seems to be a nonstarter. That's why I think everyone should join me on e. It seems like our only hope for an achievable lynch that hits scum. But I know that pubby still thinks I'm scum for whatever reason, so he's not going to show up and join my wagon, assuming he even logs on between now and deadline. And we literally can't win without him.

So, yes, I'm being defeatist. But only because I'm pretty sure we're defeated. If you disagree, vote for e and restore my faith in humanity. I dare you.

[jotheonah]

pubby, come dialogue with me. let me try to convince you not to throw away this game. ask me anything.

[MiX]

We lynch e and that's it. No I'm not scum. Scum's pps/e/gkrieg with neighbor being scum (probably ash after that vote) and someone's a third-party (maybe even myself) that is not traitor (because if it's traitor then we already lost so let's assume not). So let's do e.

Also, can we not wait untill deadline? We're not getting more information here.

[Glooble]

I ISO'd pps and e, and I didn't get any more clarity. pps still feels slightly scummier to me, but I'm happy to trust joth and vote for e.


But first:

Can a friendly town person please give me a high-level explanation of what the traitor is and how it works? I've never played with one and read the mafia wiki on it, but I'm still unsure how it works in or could work in this game.

friendly - check
high level - very questionable

Traitor is a member of the mafia (NOT a 3rd party).  So in this game just think of it as we have 4 mafia, 1 third party

In a vanilla run of this setup (no modifications) the 3 normal mafia will share the mafia qt, they do not know the traitor, and the traitor doesn't know them.  If the mafia NK the traitor, instead of the traitor dying the traitor becomes a regular member of the mafia and has access to the qt.  If modifications are selected then they occur as stated, but just think of the vanilla style and modify from there.

What do we make of this explanation by e day 1? (bolding mine.) It seems weird to me that he would give this explanation without acknowledging the possibility of the third party choosing to be a second traitor. Does anyone else agree this is a weird omission? Is it any more likely for scum!e than for town!e?

[MiX]

I ISO'd pps and e, and I didn't get any more clarity. pps still feels slightly scummier to me, but I'm happy to trust joth and vote for e.


But first:

Can a friendly town person please give me a high-level explanation of what the traitor is and how it works? I've never played with one and read the mafia wiki on it, but I'm still unsure how it works in or could work in this game.

friendly - check
high level - very questionable

Traitor is a member of the mafia (NOT a 3rd party).  So in this game just think of it as we have 4 mafia, 1 third party

In a vanilla run of this setup (no modifications) the 3 normal mafia will share the mafia qt, they do not know the traitor, and the traitor doesn't know them.  If the mafia NK the traitor, instead of the traitor dying the traitor becomes a regular member of the mafia and has access to the qt.  If modifications are selected then they occur as stated, but just think of the vanilla style and modify from there.

What do we make of this explanation by e day 1? (bolding mine.) It seems weird to me that he would give this explanation without acknowledging the possibility of the third party choosing to be a second traitor. Does anyone else agree this is a weird omission? Is it any more likely for scum!e than for town!e?

It sounds like hopeful town dreaming of a life without third-party just being scum. Or, you know, it's scum looking at the worst case scenario. I would disregard it.

[Swowl]

Vote: E!

[Glooble]

Okay lets do this. vote: e

[gkrieg13]

I ISO'd pps and e, and I didn't get any more clarity. pps still feels slightly scummier to me, but I'm happy to trust joth and vote for e.


But first:

Can a friendly town person please give me a high-level explanation of what the traitor is and how it works? I've never played with one and read the mafia wiki on it, but I'm still unsure how it works in or could work in this game.

friendly - check
high level - very questionable

Traitor is a member of the mafia (NOT a 3rd party).  So in this game just think of it as we have 4 mafia, 1 third party

In a vanilla run of this setup (no modifications) the 3 normal mafia will share the mafia qt, they do not know the traitor, and the traitor doesn't know them.  If the mafia NK the traitor, instead of the traitor dying the traitor becomes a regular member of the mafia and has access to the qt.  If modifications are selected then they occur as stated, but just think of the vanilla style and modify from there.

What do we make of this explanation by e day 1? (bolding mine.) It seems weird to me that he would give this explanation without acknowledging the possibility of the third party choosing to be a second traitor. Does anyone else agree this is a weird omission? Is it any more likely for scum!e than for town!e?

I don't see why scum would make that omission. I actually think scum is less likely to make that omission because they would have talked about the second traitor in their QT I think.

[gkrieg13]

vote: e

This seems like the best consensus wagon and I think it has an extremely good chance of hitting scum.

Ash, Friday morning is the deadline. So we're at about T-48 hours.

Isn't the consensus wagon not where we want to lynch today? With 5 town and 5 non-town, consensus is more likely to come on a candidate that is town.

[gkrieg13]

vote: PPS

[gkrieg13]

I think scum lurks to a victory here, which is not what e has been doing.

[jotheonah]

I think scum lurks to a victory here, which is not what e has been doing.

I think scum half-heartedly defends their partner after voting for the scummiest townie here.

[Swowl]

@ Joth - Where are you now currently at on who you think is Traitor? I am assuming at this point there is only 1.

[jotheonah]

@ Joth - Where are you now currently at on who you think is Traitor? I am assuming at this point there is only 1.

MiX.

[MiX]

@ Joth - Where are you now currently at on who you think is Traitor? I am assuming at this point there is only 1.

MiX.

Yet you're voting for the wagon I started? No wonder you think we're gonna lose.

[EFHW]

vote: e. L-1

[jotheonah]

@ Joth - Where are you now currently at on who you think is Traitor? I am assuming at this point there is only 1.

MiX.

Yet you're voting for the wagon I started? No wonder you think we're gonna lose.

1. We don’t know if Traitor knows mafia.
2. I’m less sure about you than about others.
3. gkrieg remains my first choice

[Swowl]

Literally only skum quick hammers here - everyone else needs to wait for E! to check in.

[jotheonah]

Now seems like as good a time as any to say that I am more or less expecting to be nightkilled, and if I am you should know that I have not been holding anything back; all my thoughts and reads are in my posts from today. The only thing that's changed is I've become more suspicious of ash, which makes me think the team is {ash, e, gkrieg} with the traitor among {MiX, pps, Glooble, pubby} in that order of likelihood. My best guess on third party is Survivor!EFHW who has decided to win with town, or Tracker/Reporter {MiX, pps, pubby}. I don't think that can be Glooble because he's the one who keeps reminding us not to do a mass claim and let them win.

[Swowl]

@ MiX - What is your read on GK?

[MiX]

@ MiX - What is your read on GK?

Scum or traitor. I believe I said this already, but scum's in (gkrieg/e/pps) and neighbor, which I have narrowed down to (efhw/ash). I have no idea what third-party is doing.

[pubby]

vote: e

[MiX]

Well, time for the big reveal: what scum PR was he?

[Swowl]

Well, time for the big reveal: what scum PR was he?

I suppose this is comforting... I think.

[EFHW]

vote: e

Do you realize this was the hammer?

[Swowl]

vote: e

Do you realize this was the hammer?

L-1 was announced like 5 posts before. Can't really give anyone that much credit to say they didn't know.

[EFHW]

vote: e

Do you realize this was the hammer?

L-1 was announced like 5 posts before. Can't really give anyone that much credit to say they didn't know.

I was trying to express some incredulity.

[pubby]

Do you realize this was the hammer?

Yes but sadly it was not a joth hammer.

[EFHW]

Do you realize this was the hammer?

Yes but sadly it was not a joth hammer.

What about giving e a chance to claim?

[Glooble]

Realistically, what could he have claimed that would have saved him?

[EFHW]

Realistically, what could he have claimed that would have saved him?

Roleblocker? And it's the principal of the thing. And an opportunity for more talking that could lead to more deductions about scum.

[jotheonah]

I'm thrilled with this. MiX is the only person on this wagon who isn't a townread and he's sorta becoming one.

[faust]

Day 3 Final Vote Count

2.71828..... (6): MiX, jotheonah, DatSwan, Glooble, EFHW, pubby
pingpongsam (2): 2.71828....., grieg13
pubby (1): ashersky

Not Voting (1): pingpongsam

With 10 alive, it took 6 to lynch.

[faust]

Thousands killed as debris of space station hits central Mumbai

The international community is shocked as images showing the devastation go around the world. What remains of the international space station and has not fully burned out upon entry into the atmosphere laid waste to the city of Mumbia as evacuation efforts failed to succeed in time. The Indian Prime Minister has demanded that the US extradite the SpaceX CEO responsible.

On Thursday, the ISS suffered a fatal collision with a space shuttle carrying the frozen body of former SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who planned a 300 year space round trip, hoping to return to earth in a distant future where his terminal cancer might be curable. Those plans failed catastrophically after due to failed calculation, the shuttle crossed the orbit if the ISS and crashed into it, killing 4 astronauts on board.

The US Senate has voted an on an emergency bill to shut down all private space travel and freeze all of NASA's budget.

2.71828..... has been lynched! They were Space Colonization, the Mafia Goon!

Night 3 begins now and lasts until June 30, 2019, 02:15:00 am. Night actions are due within 36 hours.

Thread locked!

[faust]

Flavor to come.

jotheonah has been killed! They were Nuclear Annihilation, the Vanilla Townie!

Day 4 begins! Sorry about the delay.

Vote Count 4.0

Not Voting (8): Glooble, MiX, DatSwan, pingpongsam, EFHW, ashersky, gkrieg13, pubby

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 4 ends on July 08, 2019, 03:00:00 am.

Thread unlocked!

[pubby]

Damnit I liked joth. He was a good pal.    RIP

[pubby]

OK Looking at yesterday's votes and seeing who didn't vote for e, the two scummiest players are gkrieg and ash. gkrieg has been suspect the whole game, but it's hella notable that he followed e's vote on PPS. Ash is someone who's made bad contributions w.r.t voting even when considering his claimed lack of time.

vote: gkrieg

[MiX]

I agree wholeheartedly with pubby, and I believe those 2 are the remaining scum. Pps is most likely either traitor or third-party. Sadly I only ISOd e, and he didn't talk much so there's not a lot to analyze.

Vote: gkrieg, I'll vote after everyone talks.

[ashersky]

MiX and pubby definitely still the scummiest, and to coordinated start to day reeks of scum planning + daychat.

[ashersky]

Also, any punishment for the infraction, boss?

[MiX]

Damnit I liked joth. He was a good pal.    RIP

Didn't you vote for him all game, including yesterday? I hope you learn with this game that you shouldn't tunnel vision so much. At least I eventually backed off.

MiX and pubby definitely still the scummiest, and to coordinated start to day reeks of scum planning + daychat.

I just woke up.

Vote: ash

[Glooble]

Pubby’s hammer might have been a bus. If scum was pretty sure the last town would vote e, I could see trying to beat them to it for towncred. What I don’t see is the situation where scum!MiX more or less starts the wagon on scum e. So I think MiX is town.

[faust]

Also, any punishment for the infraction, boss?

No infraction of the rules that I am aware of happened in this thread. If you have something, please point it out to me.

[MiX]

Pubby’s hammer might have been a bus. If scum was pretty sure the last town would vote e, I could see trying to beat them to it for towncred. What I don’t see is the situation where scum!MiX more or less starts the wagon on scum e. So I think MiX is town.

Who is this other townie then? Pps?

[Glooble]

Pubby’s hammer might have been a bus. If scum was pretty sure the last town would vote e, I could see trying to beat them to it for towncred. What I don’t see is the situation where scum!MiX more or less starts the wagon on scum e. So I think MiX is town.

Who is this other townie then? Pps?

It would almost have to be. On the one hand it just seems so... clumsy for scum to try to redirect the lynch to him. On the other hand, what choice would they have?

I currently think gkrieg is probably the best lynch for today.

[Glooble]

90% sure gkrieg is scum now. Read the end of day 3. Lot's of hedgy defending of e. Lots of trying to move the lynch to pps without looking like he's trying to move the lynch to pps.

[ashersky]

Also, any punishment for the infraction, boss?

No infraction of the rules that I am aware of happened in this thread. If you have something, please point it out to me.

QT.

[MiX]

90% sure gkrieg is scum now. Read the end of day 3. Lot's of hedgy defending of e. Lots of trying to move the lynch to pps without looking like he's trying to move the lynch to pps.

Well I'm 100% sure ash is scum with what he just said regarding me and pubby, so...I guess we're at an impasse. I'll also vote gkrieg, however.

[Glooble]

90% sure gkrieg is scum now. Read the end of day 3. Lot's of hedgy defending of e. Lots of trying to move the lynch to pps without looking like he's trying to move the lynch to pps.

Well I'm 100% sure ash is scum with what he just said regarding me and pubby, so...I guess we're at an impasse. I'll also vote gkrieg, however.

It's not much of an impasse. I also think scum!ash is likely. I just think scum!gkrieg is more likely.

[pingpongsam]

Reread the game while traveling for several hours. Pretty stoked that I don’t have to do an in depth post to elucidate my conclusion that grief is the best lynch candidate.

[pingpongsam]

Gkrieg not grief

[faust]

Also, any punishment for the infraction, boss?

No infraction of the rules that I am aware of happened in this thread. If you have something, please point it out to me.

QT.

I cannot confirm or deny whether rules have been broken in some game thread that is not publicly accessible.

[Glooble]

Hmmm.

So let's say gkrieg is scum. There is, at most, one scum in the neighborhood (probably ash, but we can't say that definitively.) That leaves two more scum among {Glooble, MiX, pubby, pingpongsam}. In other words, if gkrieg is scum, someone is already bussing.

[Glooble]

And that someone would almost have to be pps. It could be pubby, but coming right out of the gate voting for your partner is next level. On the other hand, joth was convinced pubby was town. Maybe that's the scenario where you bus hard and enthusiastically, hoping to end up being very trusted in the end game.

[Glooble]

I need to hear from DatSwan and EFHW before I put down a vote.

[MiX]

Hmmm.

So let's say gkrieg is scum. There is, at most, one scum in the neighborhood (probably ash, but we can't say that definitively.) That leaves two more scum among {Glooble, MiX, pubby, pingpongsam}. In other words, if gkrieg is scum, someone is already bussing.

It's not 2 more scum, it's just 1. Clearly the third party's being town here. Of those 5, pps is the only one who didn't vote gkrieg. So if he's scum, he's not bussing.

Also, recall that traitor doesn't always know scum, although I believe everyone knew e was scum.

[ashersky]

Also, any punishment for the infraction, boss?

No infraction of the rules that I am aware of happened in this thread. If you have something, please point it out to me.

QT.

I cannot confirm or deny whether rules have been broken in some game thread that is not publicly accessible.

Can you confirm that if a player posts in a locked QT, that would be considered a breakage of the rules, and if so, if there would be a penalty?

[ashersky]

Or that player could just share with us the information.

[ashersky]

As for the actual game, pubby/MiX would be actual scum, traitor is...PPS or gkrieg.

I’m sold on Glooble as town.  I’m treating the neighbors as town.  That leaves POE as such.

I could be wrong on EFHW, Glooble, or Datswan, in that order.

Also, does anyone wonder if the three neighbors must die for the reporter to win? We discussed that last night.

Also, who chooses Reporter?  No traitor or survivor since they both would have actively had to choose NOT to win yesterday.

[faust]

Also, any punishment for the infraction, boss?

No infraction of the rules that I am aware of happened in this thread. If you have something, please point it out to me.

QT.

I cannot confirm or deny whether rules have been broken in some game thread that is not publicly accessible.

Can you confirm that if a player posts in a locked QT, that would be considered a breakage of the rules, and if so, if there would be a penalty?

That would constitute a rules infraction. Whether there would be a penalty and if so, what the penalty will be, is determined on a case-by-case basis. All players witness to the rules infraction will be informed of the penalty, if there is any.

[Glooble]

Hmmm.

So let's say gkrieg is scum. There is, at most, one scum in the neighborhood (probably ash, but we can't say that definitively.) That leaves two more scum among {Glooble, MiX, pubby, pingpongsam}. In other words, if gkrieg is scum, someone is already bussing.

It's not 2 more scum, it's just 1. Clearly the third party's being town here. Of those 5, pps is the only one who didn't vote gkrieg. So if he's scum, he's not bussing.

Also, recall that traitor doesn't always know scum, although I believe everyone knew e was scum.

I meant to say 1. Sorry.

[Glooble]

Wall of text incoming. I'm bolding what I think are the juicy bits and putting a tl;dr at the end.

Ok, so post #1111- joth presents a case for e and gkrieg being scum, ending with a vote for gkrieg.

#1125- pps votes for joth. What?

MiX responds by voting for pps. Then I vote for pps. This makes joth nervous and he tries to get us to switch to e.

#1132- e shows up and expresses a scumread on gkrieg, but doesn't vote there.

pubby joins pps voting for joth.

MiX switches his vote to pubby, mostly for voting joth, his strong townread.

#1164- joth's day 2 reread. Reiterates his belief that gkrieg and e are scum, with pingpongsam as the probable partner. E immediately agrees except with EFHW instead of himself.

#1175- MiX votes for gkrieg

#1183- MiX switches to e, starting the e wagon.

EFHW vote pps, but expresses a willingness to vote for e.

#1197- e votes for pubby. Last ditch effort to start a town wagon?

#1200 - #1213 are all gkrieg, responding to various things from the last day. Not a lot that's alignment indicative to me, though joth would probably call 1208 an appeal to emotion and spin somethin out of it. But joth is dead. There might be something useful buried in these posts that I missed if someone else wants to read them.

#1221 starts a fight between e and pps. I could absolutely see them both being scum and this just being a piece of theatre.

#1232- DatSwan wants to lynch e, but doesn't vote yet.

#1236- joth starts the consolidation around e.

#1239- e votes for pps.Here's the question: is he doing this because he doesn't think there are any town he can realistically shift the lynch to and he wants to provide cover for a partner? Or is he doing it because pps is the only town he can realistically shift the lynch to? I think if gkrieg were town, e would be trying to shift the lynch there, given how many widely townread players have, at this point, expressed a willingness to vote there.

EFHW says she'll vote for e tomorrow.

ash votes pubby, joth calls that scummy, says pubby is obvtown.

gkrieg, MiX, and I have all narrowed our options to e or pps.

#1253- MiX is trying really hard to make sure e is the lynch. I do not think scum busses this hard when there is still a chance of a town lynch that would win them the game.

DatSwan votes for e.

I vote for e.

#1260- gkrieg votes for pps, saying e’s been too active to be scum? LOL, what? At this point e has more or less only been active to defend himself. This is hella scummy.

EFHW puts e to L-1.

joth thinks he will be nightkilled and believes the scum team is ash, e, and gkrieg (I’m inclined to agree.)

#1272- pubby hammers.

tl;dr: MiX is way to instrumental in the e lynch to be scum, given that a town lynch would have won them the game and he pushed for e when several other options were viable. MiX is more or less conf!town for me.

I’m confident gkrieg is scum.

Either pubby or pps is scum, but I don’t know which one.

[MiX]

"#1260- gkrieg votes for pps, saying e’s been too active to be scum? LOL, what?"

Yep, that's an airtight case if I've ever seen one. Problem? He could be traitor. Ash cannot.

[EFHW]

Also, any punishment for the infraction, boss?

No infraction of the rules that I am aware of happened in this thread. If you have something, please point it out to me.

QT.

I cannot confirm or deny whether rules have been broken in some game thread that is not publicly accessible.

Can you confirm that if a player posts in a locked QT, that would be considered a breakage of the rules, and if so, if there would be a penalty?

Did you read the post? I didn't see it, just the deletion. It clearly seemed like an accident, since the post was 1 minute after the post locking the thread. There aren't ppe warnings for qts.

Are you so sure you are on the opposite team from DatSwan?

[Glooble]

"#1260- gkrieg votes for pps, saying e’s been too active to be scum? LOL, what?"

Yep, that's an airtight case if I've ever seen one. Problem? He could be traitor. Ash cannot.

What do you make of e not trying to switch the lynch to gkrieg? He votes for pubby and pps, but never gkrieg, despite expressing scumreads on gkrieg twice, and the fact that joth you, at the very least, have expressed a willingness to vote for gkrieg.

[EFHW]

"#1260- gkrieg votes for pps, saying e’s been too active to be scum? LOL, what?"

Yep, that's an airtight case if I've ever seen one. Problem? He could be traitor. Ash cannot.

Don't we need traitor as much as we need scum? I don't see the difference.

[EFHW]

Hmmm.

So let's say gkrieg is scum. There is, at most, one scum in the neighborhood (probably ash, but we can't say that definitively.) That leaves two more scum among {Glooble, MiX, pubby, pingpongsam}. In other words, if gkrieg is scum, someone is already bussing.

It's not 2 more scum, it's just 1. Clearly the third party's being town here. Of those 5, pps is the only one who didn't vote gkrieg. So if he's scum, he's not bussing.

Also, recall that traitor doesn't always know scum, although I believe everyone knew e was scum.

I meant to say 1. Sorry.

I don't get what's going on with numbers here. DatSwan made a number-of-scum error in the qt as well. There are 4 scum, we found 1, there are 3 more to catch. Right? Glooble assumed 1 in neighborhood, that leaves 2 more in the rest of you.

[EFHW]

Hmmm.

So let's say gkrieg is scum. There is, at most, one scum in the neighborhood (probably ash, but we can't say that definitively.) That leaves two more scum among {Glooble, MiX, pubby, pingpongsam}. In other words, if gkrieg is scum, someone is already bussing.

It's not 2 more scum, it's just 1. Clearly the third party's being town here. Of those 5, pps is the only one who didn't vote gkrieg. So if he's scum, he's not bussing.

Also, recall that traitor doesn't always know scum, although I believe everyone knew e was scum.

I meant to say 1. Sorry.

I don't get what's going on with numbers here. DatSwan made a number-of-scum error in the qt as well. There are 4 scum, we found 1, there are 3 more to catch. Right? Glooble assumed 1 in neighborhood, that leaves 2 more in the rest of you.

Ok, I see the premise here was that gkrieg was scum. Still wondering about the distinction MiX is making between scum and traitor.

[pubby]

Presumably it's better to lynch mafia first because with all 3 dead the night kill is shut down. That's assuming the traitor hasn't joined their side yet.

[pubby]

Current read: Ash, PPS as mafia. gkrieg as traitor.

If gkrieg is regular mafia, it seems very unlikely that PPS is scum based on yesterday's votes.

[Glooble]

I's like to hear from DatSwan and EFHW about their feelings vis a vis ash. Especially cause it sounds like something went down in the neighborhood last night.

[EFHW]

Presumably it's better to lynch mafia first because with all 3 dead the night kill is shut down. That's assuming the traitor hasn't joined their side yet.

Sometimes the traitor gets the nk if they are the only one alive, and that's true here:

"If a Mafia Traitor is targeted with the factional kill, they join the Mafia QT instead of dying. They may use the nightkill once they joined the QT or all original members of the Mafia QT have died."

[EFHW]

I's like to hear from DatSwan and EFHW about their feelings vis a vis ash. Especially cause it sounds like something went down in the neighborhood last night.

I don't have a scumread on ash, but I wouldn't be surprised if he were scum. He's been towny, but he can do that as scum. Picking on DatSwan's mistake seems odd to me, unless he knows they are on opposite teams, so that is scummy.

DatSwan made a possible scumslip in the qt. Bascially asking me (paraphrasing here) if there is no scum in the neighborhood then which two remaining people do I think are scum.

gkrieg's attempt to deflect from e was definitely scummy. It's a scum mistake, though, that I would expect him to be able to avoid. I don't know, I always think he is scum, so that makes me cautious.

[MiX]

I was thinking that we could kill actual scum first so scum can NK the traitor. Sadly, they can just dodge it with tge neighborhood. That reminds me, EFHW is town for saying what ash was talking about.

So, since scum won't realistically NK the traitor, we can safely assume the third-party's reporter or survivor. If survivor, they're town (since they could just not bus), so let's assume the worst, which is reporter. I found this in the setup:

"- Traitor does not constitute a power role"

Which means we don't want to leave them as the last scum lynch. Now we need to know this:

Does Neighbor count as a power role for Reporter?

If yes, the reporter kinda lost already...and we let ash live. Otherwise, we take out ash and pray the remaining scum are PRs. There's also the possibility traitor's PR, but I would say that's slim (only if they got RB).

[Glooble]

Also if the scum nightkills the traitor the traitor doesn't die and joins the QT instead.

[EFHW]

I was thinking that we could kill actual scum first so scum can NK the traitor. Sadly, they can just dodge it with tge neighborhood. That reminds me, EFHW is town for saying what ash was talking about.

So, since scum won't realistically NK the traitor, we can safely assume the third-party's reporter or survivor. If survivor, they're town (since they could just not bus), so let's assume the worst, which is reporter. I found this in the setup:

"- Traitor does not constitute a power role"

Which means we don't want to leave them as the last scum lynch. Now we need to know this:

Does Neighbor count as a power role for Reporter?

If yes, the reporter kinda lost already...and we let ash live. Otherwise, we take out ash and pray the remaining scum are PRs. There's also the possibility traitor's PR, but I would say that's slim (only if they got RB).

For some reason I can't make any sense of most of this post.

[MiX]

Also if the scum nightkills the traitor the traitor doesn't die and joins the QT instead.

That still lets us enter normal LyLo, which is our win condition.


Sorry EFHW, I'll explain after faust answers my question. Mostly I thought we shouldn't kill traitor first, but then I realize we should.

[faust]

Does Neighbor count as a power role for Reporter?

Yes.

[Swowl]

Mix - i posted the same question in the hood thread last night . Honestly i am surprised at the answer.


Ashes/EFHW - I posted something in our hood thread within the minute that Faust locked thread and re opened game.

I instantly deleted it.

I am not under any penalty that i am aware of.

[Swowl]

Hmmm.

So let's say gkrieg is scum. There is, at most, one scum in the neighborhood (probably ash, but we can't say that definitively.) That leaves two more scum among {Glooble, MiX, pubby, pingpongsam}. In other words, if gkrieg is scum, someone is already bussing.

It's not 2 more scum, it's just 1. Clearly the third party's being town here. Of those 5, pps is the only one who didn't vote gkrieg. So if he's scum, he's not bussing.

Also, recall that traitor doesn't always know scum, although I believe everyone knew e was scum.

I meant to say 1. Sorry.

I don't get what's going on with numbers here. DatSwan made a number-of-scum error in the qt as well. There are 4 scum, we found 1, there are 3 more to catch. Right? Glooble assumed 1 in neighborhood, that leaves 2 more in the rest of you.

Obviously i can’t quote it, but it wasn’t a error it was a typo. Any time i talked about “2skum” i meant 2 mafia

[MiX]

Okay then I know precisely what is going to happen this game.

Vote: gkrieg

[MiX]

Everyone, including scum, should be voting on gkrieg as fast as possible, by the way. It's the correct move.

[Glooble]

I’m so confused.

[Glooble]

Why does speed matter?

[MiX]

Why does speed matter?

I will explain tomorrow. Maybe.

[MiX]

Because I'm not Swan, but aspire to be like him, I will give you a hint: it's a consequence of "neighbors are power roles". And like Swan's hints, I doubt you'll understand with just that.

[Glooble]

vote: gkrieg

[Glooble]

But only because I was going to anyway. I think I understand what you’re getting at, and If I’m right I’m not sure it works how you think it does. But I want to lynch gkrieg anyway.

[Glooble]

unvote

If I’m right about MiX’s plan it loses us the game.

MiX, you know lynching the third party is just as bad as lynching town, right?

[MiX]

unvote

If I’m right about MiX’s plan it loses us the game.

MiX, you know lynching the third party is just as bad as lynching town, right?

Third party? My plan goes deeper. It goes DEEP. Trust me Glooble, can gkrieg be anything but scum? No. So we lynch them.

[Glooble]

Good enough for me.

vote: gkrieg

[EFHW]

Hmmm.

So let's say gkrieg is scum. There is, at most, one scum in the neighborhood (probably ash, but we can't say that definitively.) That leaves two more scum among {Glooble, MiX, pubby, pingpongsam}. In other words, if gkrieg is scum, someone is already bussing.

It's not 2 more scum, it's just 1. Clearly the third party's being town here. Of those 5, pps is the only one who didn't vote gkrieg. So if he's scum, he's not bussing.

Also, recall that traitor doesn't always know scum, although I believe everyone knew e was scum.

I meant to say 1. Sorry.

I don't get what's going on with numbers here. DatSwan made a number-of-scum error in the qt as well. There are 4 scum, we found 1, there are 3 more to catch. Right? Glooble assumed 1 in neighborhood, that leaves 2 more in the rest of you.

Obviously i can’t quote it, but it wasn’t a error it was a typo. Any time i talked about “2skum” i meant 2 mafia

But we need to catch 3 more, not two more.

[EFHW]

MiX,  is there anything more you can say about your idea?

[Swowl]

I's like to hear from DatSwan and EFHW about their feelings vis a vis ash. Especially cause it sounds like something went down in the neighborhood last night.

I would like to keep my opinions of ash/EFHW to myself for now.
I still think there is no value in lynching within the hood and i don’t want to take away focus.

There are either 2/5 or 3/5 skum in the non - Hood pool.
There are either 0/3 or 1/3 skum in the hood.

I could think one of ashes/EFHW are skum, and i would still say we lynch outside the hood.

[gkrieg13]

If there is a survivor, you should claim now and you can win with scum.

If there is a second traitor, you should have claimed a long time ago.

If there is a reporter, we can help you win by helping you lynch and kill neighbors. That is basicallythe only way you win at this point is by cooperating with scum. If we no lynch today, we will kill a town neighbor. Then help us lynch the scum neighbor, then we will kill the other town neighbor. There are no other PRs. If we do this plan, you win and scum wins.

If you want me to lay out the plan better, I can.

[Swowl]

did GK just claim skum? Am I missing something?

[Glooble]

Looks like it to me.

[EFHW]

vote: gkrieg

[EFHW]

ash -- time to hammer!

[Swowl]

Vote: GK

[EFHW]

no doubt faust is sleeping.

[gkrieg13]

Lame that third party is not playing to win unless they are SK

[ashersky]

Lame that third party is not playing to win unless they are SK

I would agree with this statement as any alignment. I know there are many players who feel it is unsportsmanlike conduct (do we say unsportspersonlike now?) to purposely play against your wincon, which I think passing up on a free win constitutes.

So I feel your pain, man. Sorry you lose.

[ashersky]

Can role and faction powers self-target in this game?

I have an idea.

[faust]

Day 4 Final Vote Count

gkrieg13 (5): pubby, MiX, Glooble, EFHW, DatSwan

Not Voting (3): pingpongsam, ashersky, gkrieg13

With 8 alive, it took 5 to lynch.

[faust]

Recent experimental evidence from CERN has solidified the many-worlds theory of quantum mechanics. In this paper, we discuss the philosophical implications of those discoveries, particularly in opposition to the "best of all possible worlds" argument in Leibniz's theodicy, but also their broader impact on the validity of religious belief systems.

- Philosophical paper, submitted 2056

gkrieg13 has been lynched! They were Metaphysical Salvation, the Mafia Goon!

Night 4 begins now and lasts until July 03, 2019, 02:00:00 pm. Note that I have shortened the night to account for a VLA. Night action deadline is still until then, i.e. 36 hours.

Thread locked!

[faust]

The Great Balkan Clone Wars were the final result of ever-increasing bio-engineering and genome manipulation. As armies of perfectly ruthless and obedient clones clashed, the land was wasted and the question of the morality of breeding humans for specific tasks gained new urgency. The Skopje Convention on Cloning was subsequently enforced strictly, a rare example of successful global tech regulation in those times.

MiX has been killed! They were Clone Breeding, the Vanilla Townie!

Day 5 begins!

Vote Count 5.0

Not Voting (6): Glooble, DatSwan, pingpongsam, EFHW, ashersky, pubby

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 5 ends on July 10, 2019, 03:00:00 pm.

Thread unlocked!

[EFHW]

I think there almost has to be scum in the neighborhood.  There's been no interest in lynching there and no nks there, likely out of fear of there also being a survivor.

[pubby]

Well it seems pretty obvious that the neighbor scum is Ash. Do you think there's someone else?

vote: ash

[Glooble]

Killing MiX was a weird move.

Ash is pretty likely scum.

How much of a time crunch are we in?

[EFHW]

Well it seems pretty obvious that the neighbor scum is Ash. Do you think there's someone else?

vote: ash

It doesn't seem obvious to me. Can you elaborate? And why are you voting so quickly?

[EFHW]

Killing MiX was a weird move.

Ash is pretty likely scum.

How much of a time crunch are we in?

MiX was obv!town by that point, and keeps the game going.

Why do you think ash is the scum?

[Glooble]

Killing MiX was a weird move.

Ash is pretty likely scum.

How much of a time crunch are we in?

MiX was obv!town by that point, and keeps the game going.

Why do you think ash is the scum?

Well, for one thing he keeps not voting for scum?

[Swowl]

Well it seems pretty obvious that the neighbor scum is Ash. Do you think there's someone else?

vote: ash

It still kind of doesn’t matter. I am at the point that i think skum is in the hood - as i think they would of started shooting at us by now if not.

Hood could have 1/3, or 0/3.
Outside Hood can have 1/4 or 2/4.
I am leaning probably 1/4 outside and 1/3 inside at this point, but bc of potential of it being a guaranteed loss if there is no skum in the hood... still makes me hesitant.

I need to re read with the mix flip tho.

[Glooble]

There's 6 people left in the game. Half the game at this point is the neighborhood. There's 2 scum. Both in the neighborhood is impossible. So for a player outside the neighborhood, lynching another player outside the neighborhood is a 50/50 shot.

From my perspective, since I know I am town, either pubby or pps is scum. Full stop.

Could be both, of course, if neighborhood is all town. But it's definitely at least one of them.

Either way I think my best course of action is to reread these two. I think it's pps, just cause pubby hammered e, but as I said before, I can see a scenario where scum does that for town points. And if there is only one scum outside the neighborhood, they're the traitor, so its possible they didn't know e was scum.

[Glooble]

That being said:

pubby, who is scummier between me and pps?

pps, who is scummier between me and pubby?

[EFHW]

Well it seems pretty obvious that the neighbor scum is Ash. Do you think there's someone else?

vote: ash

I think this is super scummy. I think pubby is suddenly posting because 2 of the mafia are dead and he's stepping up to fill in the void. His scum!ash theory got debunked, so unless he has more, this is a scummy vote.

[EFHW]

Current read: Ash, PPS as mafia. gkrieg as traitor.

If gkrieg is regular mafia, it seems very unlikely that PPS is scum based on yesterday's votes.

I'll moderate my previous post a bit, since I'm noticing that pubby tends to give his infrequent posts at the start of a day, so this post isn't sudden activity. 

I'd like to know, given the above quote,  who pubby thinks is the scum not in the neighborhood.

[pingpongsam]

That being said:

pubby, who is scummier between me and pps?

pps, who is scummier between me and pubby?

Pubby by a rather large margin.

[pubby]

I suspected pps scum days ago so I'm sticking to that. I think gkrieg/e voting him makes him look townier but he has not been voting against scum (neither has Ash) so he's still scummy in my eyes. I saw a link between Ash/ pps so if one's scum the other should be lynched as well.

Btw I do not see how scum Ash has been debunked.

I think pubby is suddenly posting because 2 of the mafia are dead

Mod said he'd replace me if I didn't start posting   

[Glooble]

A reread of the end of day 1 is informative. Gkrieg is number 5 on the pubby wagon.  Given that the debate wagon was also picking up steam at the time, and we know debate was town, it seems really weird for gkrieg to bus there. And then e puts pubby to L-1. I just don’t buy it if pubby’s scum. I don’t think scum buses like that day one, not when there’s a viable lynch on a townie with just as strong a case.

It’s got to be pps.

vote: pingpongsam

[Glooble]

On the other hand, how likely is it that the debatepro wagon was 100% town?

[Glooble]

You know what I forgot? Pubby/ pps is the traitor. Dammit. E and gkrieg wouldn’t have known day 1. My logic is flawed.

unvote for now.

[Glooble]

What are the chances pps’s “is Traitor hunting a scumtell” comment was him signaling his traitorness?

[EFHW]

Btw I do not see how scum Ash has been debunked

The theory you had that he was scum bc he didn't hammer you.

[ashersky]

Confirming something with mod before posting plan to win the game.

[EFHW]

I am excited to be able to report that having reread DatSwan I do not want to lynch him. I'll reread ash next.

[EFHW]

ash is playing a very clean game. Nothing to pin on him.

so, Glooble, pps or pubby?

I don't think e's vote on pps is that meaningful. Given pps's low level of activity, e could easily have thought it was worth the bus to save himself over pps. Or he knew he would be lynched and was protecting his partner.

I think most scum would try to be at least a little more active than pps is being. I'll have to reread him and pubby, which shouldn't take long.

Glooble I've been treating as obv!town. Should probably look at him again, too.

[Swowl]

Glooble E and GK were all and only three pushing my wagon day 1. I find it unlikely all three are skum (especially since 2 have flipped mafia, not traitor).

[Swowl]

I do agree with pps/Pubby - and i think there is a chance it is both. Probably not - but still a chance.

I would like to vote lynch pps today.

[EFHW]

when is deadline? The vc says it was yesterday

[EFHW]

I do agree with pps/Pubby - and i think there is a chance it is both. Probably not - but still a chance.

I would like to vote lynch pps today.

If you think Glooble is town but aren't sure both pps and pubby are scum, then I guess you are strongly suspecting me or ash? Can you say more?

[Glooble]

when is deadline? The vc says it was yesterday

It should be July 10th.

[WestCoastDidds]

Yes, deadline is July 10 at 3:00 PM

[Swowl]

If a Traitor is recruited and then flips, they still flip traitor correct?

[Swowl]

I do agree with pps/Pubby - and i think there is a chance it is both. Probably not - but still a chance.

I would like to vote lynch pps today.

If you think Glooble is town but aren't sure both pps and pubby are scum, then I guess you are strongly suspecting me or ash? Can you say more?

So first off, just to repeat for clarity... I think there is a chance it could be PPS and Pubby. A chance. I think I put that chance under it being one of PPS/Pubby and then one of EFHW/Ashes, but it being both of PPS and Pubby is def not off the table for me.

Also... while I want to be clear that the primary reason (or potentially the only reason that matters today) in my wanting to lynch outside the Hood is what I said before (i.e. there must be skum outside, but not necessarily the other way around)... I can add at least that if forced to do so I would have an extremely hard time at this point choosing between you or ashes.

I know that is an unsatisfying answer. However, regardless of your alignment, I assume you can piece together why I would rather not say more that that right now in regards to you vs Ashes.

[Swowl]

Hypothetical situation:

We have Glooble, PPS, and Pubby claim (don't do it, right now, just a hypo).

Everyone that is not those people - what order would you put them in?

I will go first, as I have already made it pretty clear - PPS > Pubby > Glooble



There is an idea behind this, please play along.

[Swowl]

Ashes - you are approaching the skummy DL of saying you have a plan and not saying what it is man.

[Swowl]

Quote from Set Up Post:
"- Tracker Reporter: Wins when all power roles are dead and they are still alive. If they win, they are removed from the game. Removes the Even-Night Tracker from town's list."


What happens if Town or Mafia meet there win condition(s) with power roles still alive? Would the Reporter win with the winning faction if there were still PR's alive? If Skum gets it to 2-2 tomorrow but one of the 3 town is the Reporter, that is a Mafia win even with the Reporter in play. So Skum wins... but what happens with Reporter? Also, in a situation where there is still a Hood member alive, but the Town meets there wincon with the Reporter alive... what happens?

[pubby]

Doesn't claiming help 3rd party and mafia more than it helps town?...

vote: pps

I want to know who was in hood day 1. In my memory it's efhw and Ash. Scum would be misplaying if they did not inject a member into hood night 0. (Hint: it's obv Ash)

Can't post tomorrow gonna be traveling all dsy

[pubby]

BTW thoughts on efhw everyone?

[Swowl]

Doesn't claiming help 3rd party and mafia more than it helps town?...

vote: pps

I want to know who was in hood day 1. In my memory it's efhw and Ash. Scum would be misplaying if they did not inject a member into hood night 0. (Hint: it's obv Ash)

Can't post tomorrow gonna be traveling all dsy

Clarification - that is not how the hood works. none of us knew how many, who, or any information about the Hood until Night 1. All we knew (at least for me I guess, so I assume everyone) is at the start of Day 1 that we were in the Hood.

[Swowl]

Doesn't claiming help 3rd party and mafia more than it helps town?...

vote: pps

I want to know who was in hood day 1. In my memory it's efhw and Ash. Scum would be misplaying if they did not inject a member into hood night 0. (Hint: it's obv Ash)

Can't post tomorrow gonna be traveling all dsy

Also, while I do see a scenario in which it could help skum more than town (which is why I want to ask about the claim order first), the third party is kind of a non factor.

1) Survivor. Obv playing for town if true, so no.
2) Traitor. No, game would be over.
3) SK. Yes it would help. If there is an SK I would be just crazy surprised though, as I assume everyone would.
4) Reporter. If they have to get rid of all Hood, it doesn't matter to them at this point about finding PRs.

So yeah... Third party on a claim is either pro town or a null lean realistically.

[Swowl]

also pubby, how much thought have you put into ashes thinking that we had info prior to night 1? do you need to re eval anything?

I actually agree with you that it would be strange for Mafia to not put skum in the hood, but like were you taking inferences away based on skum knowing who was in the hood day 1?

[ashersky]

Faust has been VLA, so I don’t have clarification yet, so no plan posted.

He’s supposedly back Monday?

[WestCoastDidds]

I think late today or Monday

[Swowl]

I take back my previous comment about ashes then obviously.

[pingpongsam]

I’ve been piss poor town, that is for sure. Scum controls the game and the only antidote is activity to exert equal and opposite control. If I were scum I would have already thrown in the towel and forfeited myself like gkrieg did, or more likely, have put actual effort into the game from the get go.

I’m not opposed to a mass claim that begins with me. Based on what little deduction I have I feel fairly sure Pubby is scum.

I’m not sure where we end up with a mislynch today but if it end games us I owe it to town to try to prevent a mislynch from landing on me. Otherwise, I feel like I am more detrimental to town alive than flipped. Obviously hitting scum is the goal so I’m not volunteering or anything. It just seems like everyone at some point has been suspicious of me so I really don’t see us gaining any real POE by mislynching me.

[ashersky]

Phone posting, so please excuse any typos or odd spacing.

Faust came back. He confirmed my thought for me. Datswan was also thinking along the same lines, it seems.

The Reporter needs to claim.

Funnily enough, gkrieg’s towel toss made even more sense than we thought. Reporter will lose this game unless Town purposely slows down and lynches the entire neighborhood before the remaining scum. Faust confirmed that if we win with neighbors alive, Reporter loses.

I propose that the Reporter claim, further narrowing the non-neighborhood scum POE to two. We can lynch there and hopefully take out the traitor. That forces the final scum to shoot in the neighborhood for a few reasons.  If we missed they can’t shoot themselves, it also assures them there is no survivor to worry about.

The one hitch is if the reporter thinks scum will just shoot them out of spite. But that seems unlikely when scum can still use gkrieg’s plan once they have a name. It just doesn’t work so well when we have the POE so narrowed down and their numbers are reduced.

If the reporter doesn’t claim, we can just treat that player as scum — it is not a mislynch so no worries. As the reporter, that’s not a good thing, right?

So that’s my suggestion. It’s one of the three non-neighbors, so they can easily sort this. 

[Swowl]

What is it that you asked Faust?

[ashersky]

I poised a hypothetical to see how the end game plays out for Reporter. Basically the same question you asked.

[EFHW]

Are we offering to help the reporter win?

[Glooble]

I don’t think the reporter can win at all. With town or scum.

[faust]

Vote Count 5.1

pingpongsam (1): pubby

Not Voting (5): DatSwan, pingpongsam, EFHW, ashersky, Glooble

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 5 ends on July 10, 2019, 03:00:00 pm.

[ashersky]

Are we offering to help the reporter win?

I was thinking about it.

I don’t think the reporter can win at all. With town or scum.

Can only win before town.  The only way to do that is to come forward, then we see if we want to get to a point where we can make it happen.

Although...it might require all neighbors to die first.

[Glooble]

Are you assuming gkrieg was telling the truth when he said there are no other power roles? Because he was heavily incentivized to lie about that.

[EFHW]

If there is a survivor, you should claim now and you can win with scum.

If there is a second traitor, you should have claimed a long time ago.

If there is a reporter, we can help you win by helping you lynch and kill neighbors. That is basicallythe only way you win at this point is by cooperating with scum. If we no lynch today, we will kill a town neighbor. Then help us lynch the scum neighbor, then we will kill the other town neighbor. There are no other PRs. If we do this plan, you win and scum wins.

If you want me to lay out the plan better, I can.

I added the second bolding there. I missed this before. gkrieg is saying there is scum in the neighborhood?

"there are no other prs" means they chose scum neighbor, town randomly got neighbor as their pr, and scum didn't chose traitor knows mafia. It's true, we haven't seen any other town prs, but it's hard for me to imagine passing that up. Maybe they didn't trust the unknown traitor not to give them away? They also gave up daychat, which is both useful and makes the game more fun.

[Glooble]

If there is a PR outside the neighborhood, a mass claim will tell the tracker reporter that they are, in fact, endgamed. It creates a kingmaker situation. Do we want that?

[Glooble]

That wasn't a hypothetical. If we're going to do a claim we should really do it soon. If we're not going to do a claim lets take the 50/50 shot and lynch pingpongsam.

[ashersky]

That gkrieg post does seem to say there’s a scum neighbor. Does he slip or say it on purpose?

I think non neighbors should full claim at this point.

[Swowl]

Yeah i can not see the downside in claims at this point.

[Swowl]

If there is a survivor, you should claim now and you can win with scum.

If there is a second traitor, you should have claimed a long time ago.

If there is a reporter, we can help you win by helping you lynch and kill neighbors. That is basicallythe only way you win at this point is by cooperating with scum. If we no lynch today, we will kill a town neighbor. Then help us lynch the scum neighbor, then we will kill the other town neighbor. There are no other PRs. If we do this plan, you win and scum wins.

If you want me to lay out the plan better, I can.

I added the second bolding there. I missed this before. gkrieg is saying there is scum in the neighborhood?

"there are no other prs" means they chose scum neighbor, town randomly got neighbor as their pr, and scum didn't chose traitor knows mafia. It's true, we haven't seen any other town prs, but it's hard for me to imagine passing that up. Maybe they didn't trust the unknown traitor not to give them away? They also gave up daychat, which is both useful and makes the game more fun.

I agree with your reasoning, but in a different sense. If GK knew how many roles were out there, the remaining possibilities are -

1) They picked Mafia in Hood only - This is the idea he is putting forth to the Reporter. There is one Hood to start, then Mafia gets added, from that pick the only other role that is added is Town Hood. No PRs. Just Mafia in Hood and Town in Hood.

2) They did not pick Mafia in Hood, but they picked something - He took a shot, probably knowing he was going down. In the process of doing so he also laid the crumb to make us suspect there is Mafia in Hood. It would of played out like "Reporter claims, GK+Reporter vote Town Player, other skum follow". Safe, and possible... as we were all suspicious of a Mafia in the Hood with 3 there anyways.

3) They did not pick Mafia in Hood, or anything else - Makes no sense. Why would he out himself? Even if it was Survivor in play, there could only be a max of 2 Hood players if they did not pick something. So a 0% chance of there being a Reporter.


I have one more idea I need to read back on first, but it makes me think we are pretty certainly at 1 Traitor and 1 Skum in Hood.

[EFHW]

I think gkrieg said it on purpose to protect the remaining scum. Earlier in the game,  gkrieg said he would absolutely choose scum in the neighborhood.  I think he was trying to do the same thing then. Their avoiding killing in the neighborhood was a similar tactic.

This would make you or ash survivor, or Glooble is not town. It would also mean they did pick one perk, maybe two. If we are all town then rng landed on neighbor both times.

My guess is that grieg wanted us to think scum was in the neighborhood,  ash is survivor, and they picked one perk.

[Glooble]

Do you want to set a claim order or do you want us to just claim now?

[Glooble]

I’m a little concerned about time zones, given that the hood mostly seems active when I’m asleep and pps and pubby haven’t been active at all.

[EFHW]

pubby
pps
Glooble

But I think I know what they will say.

[EFHW]

pubby
pps
Glooble

But I think I know what they will say.

What is the value in claiming here? There is some tiny chance we still have pgo or roleblocker.

[Glooble]

pubby
pps
Glooble

But I think I know what they will say.

What is the value in claiming here? There is some tiny chance we still have pgo or roleblocker.

I'm not sure how to answer that without giving the traitor advice on what to fake claim.

[ashersky]

I agree with EFHW order.

[pubby]

I don't feel motivated to claim other than say I am not the reporter.

I also don't understand why glooble is on that list. Does anyone honestly expect glooble? It feels like yall are just setting up for a reporter win, even if it's difficult for them to win at this point.

[EFHW]

"Motivated" is an interesting word to use here. What are your motivations?

[pubby]

to win, obviously 

[EFHW]

to win, obviously 

You don't seem interested in cooperating with town to get there.

[Glooble]

We got 24 hours. PPS, you around?

[Swowl]

I don't feel motivated to claim other than say I am not the reporter.

I also don't understand why glooble is on that list. Does anyone honestly expect glooble? It feels like yall are just setting up for a reporter win, even if it's difficult for them to win at this point.

It is i think actually impossible for a reporter to win at this point. 3 PRs just in the hood. 2 GTD not skum. If skum gets one mislynch they win at this point so yeah.

[pubby]

You don't seem interested in cooperating with town to get there.

I'm not convinced town is pushing this plan, and I don't see how it helps much.

[Glooble]

No one answered my question yesterday about potentially confirming to the reporter (if we have one) that they can’t win.

[Glooble]

Who will be around at deadline?

I will.

[pingpongsam]

We got 24 hours. PPS, you around?

I can claim first if desired. I can also just vote pubby.

[Glooble]

We got 24 hours. PPS, you around?

I can claim first if desired. I can also just vote pubby.

Pubby has decided not to claim. That in itself gives us some info about him. I say go for it, then I will.

[EFHW]

You don't seem interested in cooperating with town to get there.

I'm not convinced town is pushing this plan, and I don't see how it helps much.

I don't mean the plan, I mean in general.

[EFHW]

No one answered my question yesterday about potentially confirming to the reporter (if we have one) that they can’t win.

Since they haven't aligned with scum, I think they don't exist.

[EFHW]

Who will be around at deadline?

I will.

I might be able to squeak in about 15 minutes before. I'll be sure to leave a vote ahead of time, just in case.

[pingpongsam]

I am Town PGO.

Vote: Pubby

[pubby]

If nobody counter claims that I'm changing my vote to glooble.

unvote

[Glooble]

I am town 1-shot watcher.

[Glooble]

I also think pps is lying.

[Glooble]

Has any of his behavior this game been consistent with that claim?

[Glooble]

A town PGO should play in such a way as to make himself the nightkill. That means being really helpful or maybe trying to find a way to fake claim a role scum *does* want to kill. It definitely doesn't mean lurking. I think pps is a good enough player to have at least tried to use his role to the best of his ability.

vote: pingpongsam

[ashersky]

I am town 1-shot watcher.

Result?

[Glooble]

I am town 1-shot watcher.

Result?

No one targeted DatSwan on night 2.

I genuinely thought scum would shoot in the neighborhood, and DatSwan seemed the towniest one there.

[ashersky]

A town PGO should play in such a way as to make himself the nightkill. That means being really helpful or maybe trying to find a way to fake claim a role scum *does* want to kill. It definitely doesn't mean lurking. I think pps is a good enough player to have at least tried to use his role to the best of his ability.

vote: pingpongsam

I think that makes sense for a normal PGO. Once the shot is used up in this version, you play like any other townie, though.

[ashersky]

I’m surprised by the way claims went.

Refusal (not Reporter)
PGO
Watcher

I see no reason a real reporter wouldn’t claim, right?  I mean, chances are so slim to win anyway, their only hope was a claim, as I and others pointed out.

We really have a silverspawn situation?  Man, I find that mind-boggling and I feel for gkrieg and co.  This game was over at least twice already.  If we pull this off, it doesn’t even feel like a fair win to me.

[ashersky]

Also, vote: pubby I guess.  I can be easily convinced to change my vote, but right now I think no claim is closest to VT, which was what I expected scum to claim.

[pubby]

efhw are you the PGO?

[EFHW]

No.

I don't believe pps either. vote: pps

[pubby]

Well I'm not PGO either. The only person yet to post is DatSwan, but DatSwan can't be PGO if Glooble is telling the truth (Glooble would be dead for targeting DatSwan, right?)

So does that mean we have SK and it's PPS?

Ninja 1-shot Bulletproof Serial Killer: Wins if they are the only player left alive. Their kill cannot be detected by Trackers or Watchers. Removes town's 1-shot PGO.

I said this before but don't feel sure about PPS being mafia because e and gkrieg voted him a few days ago. IMHO it was strange spot to make that gambit as they were already in a strong position.

[Glooble]

If pps is the traitor, e and gkrieg wouldn't have known that.

[pubby]

gkrieg's language made it seem like the traitor was already found

If there is a second traitor, you should have claimed a long time ago.

Regardless of that, if PPS is the traitor, then who is the PGO? I think PPS is SK.

vote: PPS for now

[Glooble]

gkrieg's language made it seem like the traitor was already found

If there is a second traitor, you should have claimed a long time ago.

Regardless of that, if PPS is the traitor, then who is the PGO? I think PPS is SK.

vote: PPS for now

There isn’t one. The PGO is a possible role. The only role’s town has to have are vanilla cop (which was ADK) and one neighbor. Everything else is random, with a number of roles equal to the number of bonuses scum decided to take.

[pubby]

Oh nevermind I'm stupid 

I'm still gonna vote for him though 

[Swowl]

OK so... this is all very strange.

1) PPS+Hood -  PGO would be the obv claim if the other player that is skum in is the Hood, because it allows the last remaining Mafia to not kill themselves at night (i.e. they claim and nothing happens they look good, they claim and get CCd then they know the real PGO. PPS gets lynched. Skum Hood shoot *NOT* the PGO. Has us wake up final day 3 Hood and 1 Not.

2) PPS+Pubby - Possible if Pubby is Traitor.

3) PPS+Glooble - Unlikely.

4) Glooble+Hood - Again, not a fan of Glooble lynch. I suppose if this was the set up though, as they were last to claim they could fake over claim knowing it would not skew odds for skum in hood. Also, their claim is obviously un-verifiable at this point. But stilllllllll - gut says not a great option.

5) Glooble+Pubby - Unlikely.

6) Pubby+Hood - Didn't want to claim because?... I guess not risk getting CC'd?  Makes as much sense as it doesn't so null on that.


I honestly do not know what to do with this. No one hammer while I think please.

PPS could be traitor waving off a potential Night Kill? Is that a thing that makes sense at all?

[EFHW]

Would scum!pubby be paying so little attention to the game? Would scum!pubby have been able to fake so many town slips all at once?

I've never played with pubby before. What is his town meta?

[Swowl]

Would scum!pubby be paying so little attention to the game? Would scum!pubby have been able to fake so many town slips all at once?

I've never played with pubby before. What is his town meta?

Pretty much this - but it could also be their skum meta.

[Swowl]

Suuuuupppeeerrr Summarized VCA because I kinda got know where to go but broad strokes at this point:

Day 1:

1) GK, E!, and Glooble are all on the same wagon... a lot, over different wagons. Really leaning against Glooble here. Absolute only option is they are Traitor - and that is a stretch x 1000.

2) This is the the Final Vote Count:
MiX (3): pingpongsam, debatepro
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, gkrieg13, 2.71828.....
Debatepro (: jotheonah, EFHW, MiX, pubby, ADK, Glooble, silverspawn, Uncleeurope
Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky
----So either EFHW, Pubby, and Glooble are all Town, or 1 of them is skum. Leaning towards 1 is skum. Since I find it unlikely at this point that there is NOT skum in the hood, and I do not think it is Glooble... that leaves either Pubby, EFHW...or Pubby!EFHW.----

3) The run up and jump off of the Pubby wagon Day 1 here actually kind of makes sense if he is Traitor. If no one else was at risk at the time it jumped off (which they weren't), it could of been double skum on a lynch just thinking they could be town.


Day 2:

1) Final Vote Count:
mcmcsalot (7): gkrieg13, DatSwan, silverspawn, PPS, MiX, Ashes, Glooble
ashersky (1): pubby
EFHW (1): 2.71828.....
silverspawn (1): jotheonah
MiX (1): EFHW
Not Voting (1): mcmcsalot

- This is pretty much the polar opposite. GK on wagon with PPS, Ashes, and Glooble.
- Removing Glooble for now, they are not an option for me today.
- PPS picked to go to MCMC over silver when they were tied (and both Town). This would be kind of odd timing if PPS was skum with GK, as it is alone just suspicious placement on the wagon. SS had Glooble and Ashes, but in the end, Glooble jumps on the MCMC wagon. I think that makes me give town points to PPS.
- The wagon was weak as shit (first to admit it). Ashes jumping on could be skum, but today I am not worrying about it as we are lynching outside the hood.


Day 3 Final Vote Count:
2.71828..... (6): MiX, jotheonah, DatSwan, Glooble, EFHW, pubby
pingpongsam (2): 2.71828....., gkrieg13
pubby (1): ashersky

- Have been waiting to bring this one up. It could go either way. When GK chose to came out, I suppose this probably had a bit to do with it. We already got E!. Then he chose to throw the towel when he and E! were both pushing PPS. So either they did it like knowing they would throw the towel (unlikely), or it was defense combined with not wanting to get on a wagon that already had skum on it.
- I personally do not believe that NO ONE was bussing. So it could be one of those three, and if I had to pick I pick Pubby.
- GK selection of PPS is odd however. They could of gone pubby, but did not. They could of gone E!, but obv did not. Instead they joined E! on PPS. EFHW and Pubby (again), both get on E! instead of elsewhere. If one is Mafia and one is Traitor that knows skum, their options were either to try to counter wagon E! (putting all 4 skum on the same wagon) or to bus. The double bus is strange, but the point stands that their other option would not be ideal either.
- Or the wagon is all town and it is [GK, E, PPS, Ashes] - which could be possible.


Day 4 obviously there is the towel throw, so yeah not a ton of VCA there. The one noticeable thing is that Pubby did open the day voting for GK. Can't decide how I feel about that.



And then all of that leads to where I was already at - either PPS or Pubby. I think I am also leaning on Pubby. I believe I would be hammer if I voted now so I am holding off until people chime in.

[Swowl]

Never mind. Vote count is:

Pubby (2) - PPS, Ashes
PPS (3) - Glooble, EFHW, Pubby
Not Voting (1) - Swan




Vote: Pubby

[faust]

Vote Count 5.2

pubby (3): pingpongsam, ashersky, DatSwan
pingpongsam (3): Glooble, EFHW, pubby

Not Voting (0)

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 5 ends on July 10, 2019, 03:00:00 pm.

[ashersky]

We discussed voting as a bloc at one point. Thoughts on usefulness here?

[EFHW]

We discussed voting as a bloc at one point. Thoughts on usefulness here?

I guess you're talking to me. Convince me that pubby would be this disconnected from the game as scum.

Do you think pps is really the pgo?

[EFHW]

Would scum!pubby be paying so little attention to the game? Would scum!pubby have been able to fake so many town slips all at once?

I've never played with pubby before. What is his town meta?

Pretty much this - but it could also be their skum meta.

It's a lot harder to let down your partners than it is to let down a whole bunch of town, some of whom are scum.

[Glooble]

Hang on. We might have something here.

Having 2 wagons at L-1 eliminates several possible scum teams.

If pps is town, and ashersky or DatSwan is scum, they would have already hammered. So if we do believe one of pps or pubby has to be scum:

pubby/ash and pubby/DatSwan are impossible.

By the same logic, pps/EFHW is impossible.

[Glooble]

ashersky, DatSwan, EFHW, glooble, pubby, pps

asherky/Datwan only one scum in neighborhood
ashersky/EFHW see above
ashersky/glooble
ashersky/pubby ash would have hammered pps
ashersky/pingpongsam
DatSwan/EFHW only one scum in Neighborhood
DatSwan/Glooble
DatSwan/pubby pubby would have hammered pps
DatSwan/pps
EFHW/ Glooble
EFHW/pubby
EFHW/pps EFHW would have hammered
Glooble/ pubby
Glooble/pps I would definitely have hammered pubby by now
pubby/pps

So if you're not me, the only possible scum teams are:

ashersky/Glooble
ashersky/pingpongsam
DatSwan/Glooble
DatSwan/pps
EFHW/ Glooble
EFHW/pubby
Glooble/pubby
pubby/pps

If you are me, or are convinced I'm town, it's down to:

ashersky/pps
DatSwan/pps
EFHW/pubby
pubby/pps


That's three teams that contain pingpongsam, and only one that doesn't.

[Glooble]

I guess I'm more or less just appealing to whichever of ashersky and DatSwan is town.

[EFHW]

If you are me, or are convinced I'm town, it's down to:

ashersky/pps
DatSwan/pps
EFHW/pubby
pubby/pps

That's three teams that contain pingpongsam, and only one that doesn't.

Guess I'm staying put, then!

[Glooble]

Day 1:

2) This is the the Final Vote Count:
MiX (3): pingpongsam, debatepro
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, gkrieg13, 2.71828.....
Debatepro (: jotheonah, EFHW, MiX, pubby, ADK, Glooble, silverspawn, Uncleeurope
Not Voting (2): DatSwan, ashersky
----So either EFHW, Pubby, and Glooble are all Town, or 1 of them is skum. Leaning towards 1 is skum. Since I find it unlikely at this point that there is NOT skum in the hood, and I do not think it is Glooble... that leaves either Pubby, EFHW...or Pubby!EFHW.----

DatSwan, how sure are you about this conclusion? Because your thing + my thing would make EFHW/pubby the only possible scum team.

It comes down to "is it possible town lynched debatepro all by ourselves with no scum help?" I need to reread the end of day one to answer that question.

[Glooble]

Bleh.

I forgot about debate's "how does a traitor work" question. If the scum team all thought that was a softclaim, it's totally possible town could have lynched debatepro with no scum help.

On the other hand, EFHW was vote #2 on that wagon, which isn't nothing.

Also if pubby is scum he's the traitor, so, for example, e putting him to unannounced L-1 tells us nothing.

[ashersky]

If traitor doesn’t know mafia, does your team POE thing work?

[ashersky]

@EFHW: if pubby is traitor, his seeming disconnectedness works fine.  He wouldn’t want to try to hard, right?

[Glooble]

If traitor doesn’t know mafia, does your team POE thing work?

Dammit.

I hate traitor. It's the worst role.

My whole POE thing is bunk because scum!ash or scum!DatSwan has as much of a clue whether the traitor is pps or pubby as the town players do.

Ignore that whole f**king wall of text, I just wasted everyone's time.

[Glooble]

Pardon my French, just getting a little frustrated with making the same mistake over and over again.

[EFHW]

@EFHW: if pubby is traitor, his seeming disconnectedness works fine.  He wouldn’t want to try to hard, right?

Wouldn't he want to get nk'd so he could join the qt?

[Glooble]

@EFHW: if pubby is traitor, his seeming disconnectedness works fine.  He wouldn’t want to try to hard, right?

Wouldn't he want to get nk'd so he could join the qt?

That also costs the scum their kill for that night though.

[EFHW]

@EFHW: if pubby is traitor, his seeming disconnectedness works fine.  He wouldn’t want to try to hard, right?

Wouldn't he want to get nk'd so he could join the qt?

But, yeah, neither of them is trying much at all, so my point is not helpful. He wouldn't want to be nk'd now, because of the lost kill, but I would have expected the traitor to want to be nk'd early on.

gkrieg explicitly told the traitor not to claim by saying how he himself overclaimed and got caught in another game. I think the traitor knows mafia.

But that would mean pubby and pps are not both scum, since they are each voting the other one.

[EFHW]

*told the traitor not to breadcrumb

[Glooble]

Another data point- EFHW and pubby are the last two votes on e. I buy that as a superbus if they both thought the e lynch was inevitable. But was it?

[Glooble]

At the point when EFHW switches from pps to e, they're both at 3 votes. Do we really think scum!EFHW buses in that situation? I don't. Not when a mislynch is a game win.

[Glooble]

I have done my read through and I don't have a hell of a lot. I will post some conclusions when I have them written up.

Summary for now:

I think MiX is either Town or Traitor - I can't decide which.
I think there is Skum in [Joth, PPS]
I think there is Mafia in [Glooble, GK, E!]

So...
- [Mix, Joth, PPs] - Traitor(s)/Mafia at a absolute max of 2 (either 2 Traitors, 1 Traitor and 1 Mafia, 1 Traitor, or 1 Mafia) ... but there has to be 2 Traitors for that to be a real option... so that is not the best jumping off point.

- [MiX, Glooble, GK, E!] - Traitors(s)/Mafia at an absolute max of 3 (either 2 Traitor and 1 Mafia, 1 Traitor and 2 Mafia, or 1 Traitor and 1 Mafia) ... so, 1-2 Skum in [Glooble, GK, E!, MiX] most likely... kind of my favorite at this point.

- If MiX is NOT a Traitor, then I thin kit is either Joth or PPS. That leaves the same scenario as above, but replace MiX with Joth/PPS. Again, because of the unlikelihood of 2 Traitors, I don;t think this is the best pool to choose from.


If none of those 5 above are Skum, that means the entire Skum team would have to consist of [EFHW, Pubby, Ashes, Swan]... which is impossible because EFHW, Ashes, Swan are all in the Hood (this is assuming only 1 traitor, but still either way it doesn't make sense).

There can also only be one maximum skum in [EFHW, Ashes, Swan], and none of them can be a Traitor.

So there are a minimum of 3 Skum in [PPS, GK, E!, Joth, MiX, Pubby, Glooble].


Again, notes will follow. But right now I am at:
E!->Glooble->GK in that order.

That is mainly based on VCA. My main pool is [Glooble, GK, E!]. Day 1 ended with Glooble on the lynch and GK/E! off. Day 2 ended with Glooble and GK on the lynch and E! off.

I think there is Mafia in those three, but I want to believe there are 2/3 in regards to Skum.
Glooble and GK were on the same wagons all the times. E! was at some points and ended up always off. Adding in how many unknowns/towns there were to hammer all the wagons, and the E! L-1 vote on Day 1... I am left wanting to lynch E! today.

No way in hell scum!DatSwan makes a list like that and includes 2 of his partners.

I'm reasonably sure if there's scum in the neighborhood its ash.

[Glooble]

Given that pubby came right into today wanting to lynch ash, I really think pps is the best lynch. I know this is kind of a house of cards, but its the best I've got.

[EFHW]

If Glooble is scum, he deserves the win. DatSwan is also towny, but if ash is the scum then who is the third party? This brings me back to DatSwan scum, ash survivor. This is hard!

ppe: Yeah, that post was what switched me to a townread on DatSwan.

[EFHW]

DatSwan could be survivor. Would he do a silverspawn?

[Swowl]

We discussed voting as a bloc at one point. Thoughts on usefulness here?

I mean I’m already voting with you... not on purpose but the question is more posed to EFHW at this point.

The whole mafia not knowing traitor but makes this all very strange.

[Swowl]

Given that pubby came right into today wanting to lynch ash, I really think pps is the best lynch. I know this is kind of a house of cards, but its the best I've got.

Or it is Pubby/EFHW or Pubby/PPS

[Swowl]

Gotta make breakfast and stuff - will be around with an hour left or so.

[Glooble]

Given that pubby came right into today wanting to lynch ash, I really think pps is the best lynch. I know this is kind of a house of cards, but its the best I've got.

Or it is Pubby/EFHW or Pubby/PPS

I am worried about pubby/EFHW. But I don't think scum!EFHW votes for e when she did. Her vote took the wagons from pps 3, e 3 to pps 2, e 4. That's not just a bus, that's locking in the lynch. If pps is town there and EFHW is town, the pps lynch wins them the game. I really don't see scum EFHW bussing in that scenario. Do you? What's the logic?

[Glooble]

Sorry I meant to say "if pps is town and EFHW is scum"

[EFHW]

We discussed voting as a bloc at one point. Thoughts on usefulness here?

I mean I’m already voting with you... not on purpose but the question is more posed to EFHW at this point.

The whole mafia not knowing traitor but makes this all very strange.

Why do you think that?

[Swowl]

We discussed voting as a bloc at one point. Thoughts on usefulness here?

I mean I’m already voting with you... not on purpose but the question is more posed to EFHW at this point.

The whole mafia not knowing traitor but makes this all very strange.

Why do you think that?

Sorry - strange as in hard to solve. Like for an example you and Ash are on pps and Pubby split - but if one of you are skum you actually don’t know if you are on a good wagon.

Makes Glooble a analysis harder to utilize.

[Glooble]

If you and I are town, and EFHW is town, the scum team is either pps/ash, pubby/ash, or pubby/pps. So all we have to do is rule out pubby/ash and we can safely lynch pps. We can worry about his partner tomorrow when we have more time.

Well, pubby started the day voting for ash. So either mafia didn't select the mafia knows traitor option, or the team isn't ash/pubby. Maybe scum!pubby votes his partner to sow confusion, but I don't think so because it paints him into a corner, especially since pubby's meta is tunneling and sticking to his guns.

[Swowl]

If you and I are town, and EFHW is town, the scum team is either pps/ash, pubby/ash, or pubby/pps. So all we have to do is rule out pubby/ash and we can safely lynch pps. We can worry about his partner tomorrow when we have more time.

Well, pubby started the day voting for ash. So either mafia didn't select the mafia knows traitor option, or the team isn't ash/pubby. Maybe scum!pubby votes his partner to sow confusion, but I don't think so because it paints him into a corner, especially since pubby's meta is tunneling and sticking to his guns.

Kay color me convinced. Hammer time?

[Glooble]

Fine by me.

[Swowl]

OK well you are clearly Town to me and I have been on PPS like 100% since eod 1 and then just kind of dialed it off today after all the flips.... so I could go either way and I am honestly just surprised I did not get out of the shower this morning to a hammer - so screw it lol

Vote: PPS

[Glooble]

Thanks. If we lose its 100% on me. But I feel pretty confident.

[faust]

Day 5 Final Vote Count

pubby (2): pingpongsam, ashersky
pingpongsam (4): Glooble, EFHW, pubby, DatSwan

Not Voting (0)

With 6 alive, it took 4 to lynch.

[faust]

The Mont Pèlerin addendum to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 2068

Article 13, revision
(1) Everyone has the right to own property alone as well as in association with others.
(2) No one shall ever be deprived of their property.
(3) Everyone has the right to freely invest their property.
(4) Noone shall be hindered in moving their property to other countries.

Article 31
Everyone has the right to found a corporation, and to buy and sell legal products and services without interference.

Article 32
Everyone has the right to accumulate wealth.

pingpongsam has been lynched! They were Communist Utopia, the Mafia Traitor!

Night 6 begins now and lasts until July 12, 2019, 03:00:00 pm. Night actions due in 36 hours.

Thread locked!

[faust]

The commissioning of the first fusion power plant marked a new era of abundance for human civilization. While resources were still limited, easily accessible vast pools of energy allowed for near complete recycling that would otherwise have been unprofitable. For a while, tension and competition around the globe slowed.

pubby has been killed! They were Resource Wars, the Vanilla Townie!

Day 6 begins!

Vote Count 6.0

Not Voting (4): Glooble, DatSwan, EFHW, ashersky

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 6 ends on July 19, 2019, 04:00:00 pm.

Thread unlocked!

[Glooble]

I am very surprised to be alive.

It’s got to be ash, right? But why would ash kill pubby? He’s the only other person who he could have conceivably convinced us to lynch.

[Glooble]

Whichever one of you is the survivor should claim now I guess.

[EFHW]

Well, that is an interesting turn of events. I was going to suggest no lynch today, since mislynching pubby would be a town loss. I need to think through the options here, but my first instinct is that survivor should not claim.

[Glooble]

Really? If the survivor wanted to win with scum they could have done it days ago. They claim it lowers our lynch choices to 2 (since I’m pretty sure it makes me an actual IC.)

[Glooble]

Actually I might be wrong about that point.

[Glooble]

I’m wrong.

[Glooble]

I really really really think the scum is ash though. Everything I said yesterday about EFHW and DatSwan being town is still true.

[EFHW]

Let's see what they have to say. They've been pretty quiet in the neighborhood.

[EFHW]

I think we need to no lynch today.

[ashersky]

4 alive means no lynch.

LYLO means survivor chooses the winning team, which means we’ve wasted weeks playing this game.

Annoyingly, lynching the survivor gives scum the win, so I can’t even advocate that without losing on purpose. (Although it seems worth it.)

[ashersky]

vote: no lynch

[ashersky]

Actually, no, vote: ash.

I’m the last scum who, along with gkrieg and others, the survivor purposefully decided not to side with.

I don’t know what any of us did to you, but whatever.

This way, we don’t have to waste any more time here, can focus on new games that are hopefully less political, and on the off-chance that Glooble is reporter, he loses.

If he’s a non-shooting SK, he also loses.

[Glooble]

I was about to vote: ash anyway but now it’s less fun.

[Swowl]

vote: ash

[ashersky]

To be clear, I believe the game became problematic after gkrieg made it clear how to end the game, and a player decided not to. Until that point, you could make an argument that one can’t trust anyone else. But once scum claims scum in order to endgame, that’s basically gold.

At that point, a player has to make a decision to win with gkrieg or not. And that’s an unfortunate political/personal decision that hurts the game. Mafia members don’t get to choose their partners for a reason. Players don’t get to choose their alignment for a reason.

The survivor role was always about living until the end of the game. To do that, you wanted the game to end as soon as possible. To do otherwise goes against the original win condition and playing “as town” is basically like an alignment-switch, and I think harms the balance of a closed, invented setup.

The way the game was designed, town was endgamed once we were down to ten players alive. From that point on, mafia wasn’t playing against town, it was playing against one player.

[ashersky]

I was about to vote: ash anyway but now it’s less fun.

It may be less fun for you now, but this entire game was less fun for us for the past three game days.

[EFHW]

You could still have won.

[EFHW]

Assuming DatSwan is the survivor,  and Glooble isn't sk, are you sure he even had time to decide how to act on gkrieg's towel toss?

[EFHW]

Assuming DatSwan is the survivor,  and Glooble isn't sk, are you sure he even had time to decide how to act on gkrieg's towel toss?

Ok, he did.  Maybe he'll tell us what he was thinking. But you guys lost three lynches in a row. You can't blame other people for that. And you still had a chance to win, but you conceded instead. Not playing to your wincon, either.

[EFHW]

Looks like I was right to claim, after all.

[EFHW]

vote: ash

[ashersky]

We lost three lynches in a row after we had already won.

The fact that even after being correctly lynched every day, we still “won” at the start of each day anyway made it clear that one player was deciding it for everyone.

If Datswan is the survivor, they did a great job of not seemingly like the survivor.  The game is over, so people can honestly claim now.

Even if there is an SK, they can’t be in the hood so it has to be a Glooble.  He can just shoot someone and win.  And he deserves it.

Otherwise, town win.

[Swowl]

It's me.

In a Nutshell:

1) I did not know going into it (like until after GK and Ash were talking about it in game), that this was gonna be such a thing that people felt so strongly about. I am not saying I do not see the reason for the feelings, I just never even thought about it until it was too late.

2) My decision was in totality "because I wanted the practice". And for practice, I needed the game to continue. I never thought about the concept of playing king maker, or how it might piss off some players.

3) Most important one - Choice was NOT directed at anyone specific (or anyone at all for that matter). I have nothing against anyone on the forum, and just to touch on what Ash said about like "IDK what we did to you"... you did nothing, no one has done anything to me... wasn't attacking anyone. Promise on that one.


So. I have opinions and shit about the rightness and wrongness of my choices. And I could sit here spending time defending myself and all that bullshit that kind of doesn't matter... But instead I am gonna try to avoid the "rhetorical arguing" part to get the important message across -

If I pissed anyone off, or ruined the game for anyone, I am for sure sorry. It never was my intention.

[faust]

Day 6 Final Vote Count

ashersky (3): ashersky, Glooble, DatSwan

Not Voting (1): EFHW

With 4 alive, it took 3 to lynch.

[faust]

The wide spread of epidemics following the development of bacteria that could no longer be fought off with antibiotics decimated humankind. When the aliens landed, it was clear to the newly developed articificial intelligences that they were the superior lifeform and they immediately turned against their creators. The reliance of humans on AI-controlled systems sped up their downfall immensely. The resistance had no effective way of coordinating and thus, humankind was all but annihilated.

asherksy has been lynched! They were Extropia, the Mafia Neighbor!

The doomsday has arrived! Town wins! Also, DatSwan, who was The Singularity, the Bodyguarded Neighbor Survivor also wins.

[faust]

QTs:

The Mods: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/8HAaxiWcN3dg
The Mafia: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/sRXSuQwXTUGL
The Neighborhood: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/9DFqFcStt96PP
The Speccy: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/KQuQp9MBATVuF

[faust]

Sorry all. I think this game suffered for not being thoroughly thought out. A situation like that should not happen, and it's not fun for anyone.

I do think that is was legitimate for the Survivor to not side with scum, since they never had a guaranteed win. There was always a possibility that scum would shoot the Traitor or the Survivor (if there was a Survivor counterclaim), which gives town the upper hand again.

But overall, town too quickly got into a position where they could not win without third-party support or scum messing up. That sucks. I'm impressed with the continued participation in the game even despite that.

[2.71828.....]

Yeah, there are a million ways this game goes off without that situation occurring (different power choices, lynches, kills, etc) and only one where this happens. Unfortunately that one scenario played out.

[ashersky]

Was there a way to kill the survivor without having to shoot Datswan three times?

[2.71828.....]

To be honest, we (scum team) should have just claimed D3 and told survivor to claim and vote town with us. Traitor stays hidden and we don't believe any traitor claims.

I don't know. Just a weird situation

[2.71828.....]

Was there a way to kill the survivor without having to shoot Datswan three times?

Lynch them?

[faust]

Was there a way to kill the survivor without having to shoot Datswan three times?

Lynch them?

Basically.

That power for the Survivor may have been a bit much, but on the other hand you guys powered him up by choosing Neighbor and I like that mechanic. maybe it would be enough as a 1-shot.

[silverspawn]

Now that the game is over and the singularity has arrived, consider joining GPT-2 Mafia! I can guarantee even more killer robots.

Btw, game still needs a mvp.

[MiX]

The game should've been over in D3, if scum felt like it they could just never shoot inside the hood, guaranteeing a win. It sucks that we had to continue, and that, because of the diminished size of town, we could PoE every single scum. It really didn't feel right, because, although scum were pretty obvious at D3, we had already lost, so the incentive to scumhunt was very small.

I would propose an additional VT to this setup, just so D2 isn't MyLo. It might be too vig-sided, which is, whoever team's vigged gets in a really bad position, but at least it's not as heartbreaking as this one.

As for everything that happened in D1-D2, it was a very fun game, I really liked everyone's play. Even D3, where we PoEd like everyone, at least that was enjoyable.

Uncle for MVP!

[Glooble]

I am conflicted about this game. This is the first time I’ve ever survived until the end of a game, other than that 2d3 on lynchpool, and until ash threw in the towel I was actually pretty proud of how I handled myself. I understand the scum team’s perspective and I do feel bad for them, but not knowing for sure what would happen and knowing the third party could essentially change their mind and decide to kill us at any point, I feel like I actually played one of the best town games I’ve ever played. My only real mistake was hammering mcmcsalot. But that is the mistake that would have lost us the game if DatSwan has gone for the kill.

I was also seriously considering fake-claiming traitor in order to draw out scum day 3. In the end I just didn’t have the balls.

[jotheonah]

I know people don’t usually nominate themselves, and now my contribution is 1 million years in the past, but I was really hoping for MVP. I put in a ton of work to turn the tide from a perfect streak of mislynches to a perfect streak of lynches. And I called half the scum team before any scum flips.

[silverspawn]

In principle, I definitely think people should nominate themselves if they think it's appropriate. That's the more honest way to do it.

In case of this game, I already don't remember well enough who did what to have an opinion. Stated reads are a good proxy though.

[pingpongsam]

In case it wasn’t obvious, my PGO claim was intent to draw out the real one in a counter claim with hope for a mislynch on them. I had hoped to make that claim at least one day earlier than when the opportunity fully formed.

[jotheonah]

I do want to say that, apart from the obvious issue, it was a really interesting setup that led to some fun mind games.

[ashersky]

Glooble, for what it's worth, I think you were super towny and did a good job.

Joth also.

[EFHW]

I tbink this was a very cool setup. Adding a vt should help with the problems we encountered

[EFHW]

Sorry to hear about Earth...

[EFHW]

I propose Glooble for MVP. His towniness contributed a lot to the POE.

[jotheonah]

I understand scum’s frustration and would probably share it in their position. But I also think town would be pretty frustrated if we had just lost after 2 mislynches. And I think chaining those scum lynches like we did was a pretty big accomplishment, even if some gave themselves up (in both cases I think we were already headed that way).

[MiX]

I understand scum’s frustration and would probably share it in their position. But I also think town would be pretty frustrated if we had just lost after 2 mislynches. And I think chaining those scum lynches like we did was a pretty big accomplishment, even if some gave themselves up (in both cases I think we were already headed that way).

We had lost. PoEing scum correctly was fun, but it had nothing to do with the rightful winner (which is Swan, survivor is crazy good).

I like giving MVPs to people that die early, but Glooble works too.

[Glooble]

Honestly, as much as I would like my first MVP, I think joth deserves it over me. He actually did turn the game around. Most of our POE was enabled by that e lynch. And that was the hardest one because we had so many more options. I’m proud of day 5, but joth laid the groundwork for that.

Also I was on all of the mislynch wagons. I read silverspawn completely wrong, and I hammered mcmcsalot when I *knew* he wasn’t scum. And I wasted my watcher shot (though reading the scum QT, I was pretty close - they almost did shoot Swan.)

[Swowl]

So i ageee the role was OP with the kill soak. Might want to consider making that a 1 shot or something else.

Also for mvp Joth-Glooble toss up imo.

[EFHW]

So i ageee the role was OP with the kill soak. Might want to consider making that a 1 shot or something else.

Also for mvp Joth-Glooble toss up imo.

Or you can give it to me for outing the hood 

[Swowl]

I mean EFHW you are for sure my mvp

[Galzria]

Oh, hell. Let's do one person that's townie that was off wagon, shall we?

Pubby:
- Looking at Swan's VC at 869, there was only one mistake:

Swan Attempt at VC from phone - 2.5 hrs to DL


Galzria (5): EFHW, Glooble, pubby, Space, Eddie
EFHW (6): Galzria, WestCoastDidds, DatSwan, Awaclus, MiX, Joth
jotheonah (2): A Drowned Kernel, faust,
faust (1): pingpongsam
DatSwan (1): 2.71828.....
MiX (1): Shraeye

Pubby was no longer voting for me, but was instead voting for WCD. This vote change happened at post 858, and was 5h 3m to deadline. Given the state of the game at the point when pubby changed from voting me to voting WCD, and given the fact that pubby never came back to attempt to re-solidify a wagon anywhere else - this was a dagger in any real attempt to pull a lynch away from EFHW.

- People who have voted for Pubby:
MiX (111)
faust (127)
e (172)
Glooble (652)

[Galzria]

Whoops. Don't know how I managed that. Please ignore.