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Author Topic: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Game Over! Town won!)  (Read 193178 times)

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MiX

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1200 on: May 10, 2019, 05:59:32 am »

Glooble is trying really hard to survive this day. I love it, it's like he challenged me. Unfortunately, this is just soooo desperate...come on Glooble!

I'll try to track down some partnery tells from Swan, given I completely forgot about that.
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Glooble

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1201 on: May 10, 2019, 06:07:47 am »

All I’m trying to do is maximize our chances of winning. But every time MiX posts I become more convinced he’s scum.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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MiX

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1202 on: May 10, 2019, 06:13:38 am »

Hey, same! Up top!

Seriously, think about it from my perspective: who would push for my lynch the way you're doing? And you'll come to the same answer: scum that is trying to come back from a disasterous position that absolutely must mislynch today, even if it means they get lynched in the process, simply because they cannot afford town eating themselves. You've never stopped scumreading me, that was obviously so you could flip on me when the time was right, like right now. I can't possibly see when you're town here.
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Glooble

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1203 on: May 10, 2019, 06:17:04 am »

And I’m having a very difficult time seeing a scenario where you’re town. So what would you do in my position? Imagine you’ve been scumreading someone all game and suddenly they’re pushing for a lynch pool that inexplicably doesn’t include them?
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Glooble

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1204 on: May 10, 2019, 06:21:09 am »

Anyway to answer your question-
Hey, same! Up top!

Seriously, think about it from my perspective: who would push for my lynch the way you're doing?

See if I think about this from the perspective of a theoretical town!MiX, I think he at least acknowledges that my theory has merit. The “oh look how ridiculous Glooble is being he must be scum!” Reaction is scummy.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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MiX

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1205 on: May 10, 2019, 06:23:01 am »

And I’m having a very difficult time seeing a scenario where you’re town. So what would you do in my position? Imagine you’ve been scumreading someone all game and suddenly they’re pushing for a lynch pool that inexplicably doesn’t include them?

I wouldn't push the "oh if Galzria is scum then MiX is scum" angle, that's for sure. If you genually believe I'm scum, who cares what Galz is? After I flip Galz's alignment will be perfectly clear (if I flip scum, but if I flip town I'm pretty sure that ICs Galzria), so there's no reason to think about the best-case scenario when you think I'm scum in the worst-case scenario.

For clarification, best-case scenario is Galz is scum, since it means we only need to lynch 1 scum (since it would immediately out Galz)

PPE 1: This exchange is probably worthless for everyone else...but I don't understand that post.
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MiX

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1206 on: May 10, 2019, 06:26:26 am »

Oh okay I just read it a bit closer and I get it.

It has as much merit as the odds Galz is scum here: 0%. From a town!Glooble perspective, why would you push me this hard, and not talk about who town wants to lynch? Why lead the charge as a non-IC? Think if you're wrong: all you accomplished was me scumreading you. And I know I can be wrong, which is why I'm even doing this conversation.
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Glooble

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1207 on: May 10, 2019, 06:28:05 am »

The thing is lynching you makes sense from every angle! I do believe yourebscum butbIm not sure. But I’m not sure about anyone in the lynch pool. And when you can’t be sure you hedge your bets. If we lynch me or chairs or Gkrieg or ADK and we’re wrong, we are back to square one. If we lynch you and we’re wrong, we have an extra IC. That’s an obvious choice.

PPE1: I did kind of let an IC lead the charge. This is joth’s theory. I just really like it.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Glooble

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1208 on: May 10, 2019, 06:30:48 am »

Also, obviously, I think chance of Galz being scum is much, much higher than 0%.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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MiX

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1209 on: May 10, 2019, 06:41:40 am »

Let's see if I can dispel the idea that ICing Galz is good:

Let us assume Galz is scum iff I'm scum. We can afford exactly 2 mislynches. Let's go over scenarios:

- I'm lynched, I flip town:
-- Galz is IC, 4 people remaining, 1 mislynch left. This is technically 50% winrate, but it's higher because PRs.

- I'm lynched, I flip scum, Galz dies. Obviously.

- Someone else is lynched, they flip town:
-- 4 people remaining, 1 mislynch left. The odds of lynching scum in the next two lynches are...50%, if there's only 1. And if there's 2, the odds of lynching both of them in 3 lynches is...50%. Again, PRs help.

- Someone else is lynched, they flip scum. For the sake of argument, let's assume I'm still considered a suspect:
-- 4 people remaining, 2 mislynches left. This is, again, 50% winrate with PRs helping.


And, thus, the idea that ICing Galz is good come to light: it is not. Overall we achieve the same result. This is because when Galzria is scum, scum are in a gambit, that means that only one of them needs to die in order for town to win. Thus your idea, while good, is inherently flawed. Feel free to ask me where I got the numbers from.
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Glooble

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1210 on: May 10, 2019, 07:05:48 am »


- Someone else is lynched, they flip town:
-- 4 people remaining, 1 mislynch left. The odds of lynching scum in the next two lynches are...50%, if there's only 1. And if there's 2, the odds of lynching both of them in 3 lynches is...50%. Again, PRs help.


This is the one that’s wrong. If someone else is lynched and they flip town, we have 5 possible scum remaining, not 4.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Glooble

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1211 on: May 10, 2019, 07:07:11 am »

MiX, Galz, Glooble, ADK, chairs, Gkrieg (minus the one we lynch, probably me in this scenario let’s be honest.)
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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MiX

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1212 on: May 10, 2019, 07:09:08 am »

We would never lynch Galz before the other scum flips. Thus our lynch pool would be 4 people. If Galz is scum, it would be the first scenario, which states "if there's only 1 (scum)". Not clear I suppose, apologies.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Night 2!)
« Reply #1213 on: May 10, 2019, 07:19:13 am »

I'm so disappointed Space wasn't scum.

Sorry! :-P At least you've saved me from having to take the vig shot if I got lynched... I was quite worried about how likely I might be to get that call wrong!
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
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Glooble

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1214 on: May 10, 2019, 07:25:45 am »

We would never lynch Galz before the other scum flips. Thus our lynch pool would be 4 people. If Galz is scum, it would be the first scenario, which states "if there's only 1 (scum)". Not clear I suppose, apologies.

You’re discounting the value of actually having a living Galz as an IC.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1215 on: May 10, 2019, 07:31:36 am »

I'm slightly VLA till Monday at this point, which is annoying because I need to do some re-reading to feel confident about which side of the emerging Glooble-Mix divide I fall into.

I say "slightly" because I'm not going anywhere, I'm just hosting a music-arranging weekend at my house for some friends, so my computer will probably be busy being a music notating device rather than a thing I can read mafia on.
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EFHW

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1216 on: May 10, 2019, 07:46:33 am »

The scum!Galz theory is clever and satisfying. Those kinds of theories are almost never true.

Is this the narrative being proposed?

Scum!MiX is promoter.  He makes a lot of noise Day 1 about wanting town!promoter to claim as a signal to traitor. He chooses joth as gladiator, even though joth has seriously considered challenging MiX. Traitor!Galzria wants to signal to his partners, so he fakeclaims town promoter. He feels safe doing this because scum!Mix was pressing for a promoter claim Day 1 and because as traitor he knows there is no town promoter. He is motivated to do it because MiX is looking in danger of being challenged and losing.

Why does scum!Galz fakeclaiming here save MiX?

Why did scum!promoter MiX pick joth, who is talking about challenging MiX?

**Scum!Galz is putting all his eggs in one basket, because if MiX gets lynched anyway, galz's fakeclaim is also revealed and they both go down. No way. I don't believe he would do that.
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EFHW

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1217 on: May 10, 2019, 07:54:43 am »

If Galzria had claimed Day 1, this theory would be a bit more plausible.
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MiX

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1218 on: May 10, 2019, 08:02:40 am »

We would never lynch Galz before the other scum flips. Thus our lynch pool would be 4 people. If Galz is scum, it would be the first scenario, which states "if there's only 1 (scum)". Not clear I suppose, apologies.

You’re discounting the value of actually having a living Galz as an IC.

Yeah, you're right. In reality your plan makes perfect sense because ADK is town, which means we win. But there's still no reason for me not to propose your death instead.

How sure are we that ADK is town?
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MiX

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1219 on: May 10, 2019, 08:33:13 am »

Why does scum!Galz fakeclaiming here save MiX?

Why did scum!promoter MiX pick joth, who is talking about challenging MiX?

It saves himself, he was going to be the other person to be challenged after me.

Because joth was the person most likely to be lynched after D1. Also it's the best target to not out there's a scum!Promoter. Besides, joth would never target me, because I'm super duper town.


I really wish I was scum here, only so I could say I made this play and Galz enabled it and we bussed really REALLY hard to eventually win...that would be so cool!
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chairs

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1220 on: May 10, 2019, 08:40:12 am »

I don’t believe someone could play this way as scum. Can’t get behind a mix lynch.

vote: glooble

Glooble

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1221 on: May 10, 2019, 08:47:22 am »

Bleh. Now I'm starting to think MiX really is town.
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1222 on: May 10, 2019, 09:19:12 am »

Why does scum!Galz fakeclaiming here save MiX?

It saves himself, he was going to be the other person to be challenged after me.
To me, it looked like he was scumreading how joth was playing as gladiator, and wanted to use the weight of his being promoter to emphasize his points.
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EFHW

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1223 on: May 10, 2019, 09:27:59 am »

Bleh. Now I'm starting to think MiX really is town.
At the beginning of the day you said you really thought MiX was town. And you made a case against chairs. What happened?
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jotheonah

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 3!)
« Reply #1224 on: May 10, 2019, 09:33:29 am »

Any chance we lynch neither MiX nor Glooble today?

I continue to townread Glooble. And I’m not sure he has ever fooled me as scum. I know him as well as I know anybody and I don’t think he’s scum.
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