1) All the skum is within [Ari, Swan, Chairs, ADK, GK, Glooble, Space, EFHW]... which is either 2/8 or 3/8
2) Some amount of skum is within the same pool, and another is within [Joth, Mix, Galz, faust]
Why is it either 2/8 or 3/8?
Just separating the traitor out. Technically it is 3/8 either way.
Hold on, I just saw a contradiction here. It is impossible for the Traitor to lie there AND to be 2 scum there. I believe this mistake comes more from scum that absolutely know there IS no Traitor. How do you explain this Swan?
I don't think this is as damning as you seem to think it is, but I do accept there's a contradiction. I agree with faust that it's probably just Swan not thinking through everything, though.
If all of his second list is town, then there are probably 3 full mafia members in the first list (if other assumptions about Joth etc being townie hold), so that part of the statement holds.
Alternatively, we're in a situation where Galz lied about being town promoter, in which case he's on team evil, so if he's mafia promoter or mafia goon, then there's at most one full mafia member in the first list, plus quite probably the traitor (given the same assumptions about the second list being townie). So stated correctly, if he's counting the traitor as "not skum" then he ought to have said 1-3/8, not just 2 or 3/8. I think it's kind of a technicality.
Note: I'm not arguing in this post that anyone on the second list (besides faust) is conf!town, I'm just stating the assumptions that seem to have been present in Swan's reasoning when he made that statement.