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Author Topic: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Game Over! Town won!)  (Read 193226 times)

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MiX

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #875 on: May 04, 2019, 02:25:57 pm »

Sorry had my final final yesterday and I’m not active on the weekends. Challenging a lurker is a bad choice anyway, as it requires people to take a stand on someone who it is easy to take a stand on.

I stayed away from Joseph early before the lynch had happened because I actually didn’t think he was scum. I did take strong stands on people, it was just usually about town reads like faust and Space and Joseph.

Who do you think should be challenged?
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #876 on: May 04, 2019, 02:30:38 pm »

gKrieg: Okay, I think we've found my top choice for challenging/ lynching today. Reread him real quick. It won't take long, cause he hasn't said much. What he has said has been entirely reactive. This is actilurking at its finest. Lots of "I agree with this" and "this is a little scummy". Almost no analysis, and no strong stands about other people's scumminess. Everything is deniable. vote: gKrieg

DatSwan: Total Null read. Confused about the setup (or pretending to be.) Could easily be scum but I still like gKrieg more. DatSwan, apropos of nothing, why do you spell scum with a "k"?



I am no longer confused fwiw.
Skum is spelled with a K due to the faxt that the x button on my xomputer is broken.
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #877 on: May 04, 2019, 02:33:01 pm »

Damn - i missed the c in confused... no idea why with a k, just always been that way.


Also, unless you are somehow 100% sure Joth is town, you should probably hold back on the info a bit until after the challenge. Kind of just giving potential skum the upper hand in the selection process. Still give info, just maybe after the challenge is what i am saying.
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #878 on: May 04, 2019, 04:42:05 pm »

So no counterclaims then? Bummer.
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #879 on: May 04, 2019, 07:48:44 pm »

We should massclaim.

I'm serious. I was looking at the setup and we can get fantastic PoE.

What I'm thinking is:
-bodyguard claims (who cares, they're bodyguard, dying to protect a PR is the point of the role anyway)
-if psychologist has an innocent result from last night (guaranteed to be innocent at this point) that is NOT one of the claimed PRs, they claim with that result
-if psychologist claims, vengeful townie claims

Scum can't counter or fakeclaim this early because we just catch them. If we accept galz's claim (I do), we have six ICs out of 12 people. That leaves 3 scum in 6 people. If we can determine the towniness of just one person in that group, we win
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #880 on: May 04, 2019, 08:06:34 pm »

OK I want to get this out prior to the actual gauntlet being thrown down so it doesn't loose value in the eyes of everyone...

1) Joth waiting for a claim is weird. There is no world in which there is a CC prior to a target being selected.

 - If faust is Town and skum wants to CC, they would wait for it to be Joth vs Faust and then do the CC. If it is Town V Town, they would obviously then stay quiet. No point in outing themselves. If Joth is skum, and it is skum vs town, they would probably still not do it - cuz that pretty much starts us Day 5 1vs5. So all in all, I don't see a skum counter claim happening here - under the assumption faust is the Town Tracker.

- If faust is skum and fake claiming Tracker, I do not know if the right play would be to come out as the real Tracker. That would put them in the spot of being selected for the second target of the lynch pool vs faust. If they lose that, we lose the tracker. If they win that, skum still kills the tracker at night. Either which way, if you fast forward to Day 4, we are down 1 skum and 1 tracker. The downside of them not claiming is obviously that if faust is skum then they probably get a pass on today's lynch pool, but the tracker can still claim tomorrow. They get an extra night of results, we gain interaction not based solely on focusing on the CC aspect, and assuming the Tracker is Town without a result on Joth... it leaves Joth on the table.


2) I do not believe that Galz and MiX can be skum together

3) I do not believe that faust and Galz can be skum together

4) I do not believe Galz and Joth can be skum together

5) I believe it is very unlikely that Joth and faust are skum together


Add all the above up, I do not think there is 2 or more skum in [Mix, Galz, faust, Joth]. I do however think that it is likely there is 1 skum there.

So, removing Joth!Galz and Joth!Faust, I am left with Joth!MiX as tho last option. As I mentioned, I do not think that Galz!MiX and I do not think it is likely Joth!Faust.


I am not trying to be counter productive, but at this point I am admitting defeat on my reads yesterday for Joth vs Joseph.



I think that Faust is most likely telling the truth, and if they are not, then the most likely scenario is a set up with faust. But mostly, faust is probably telling the truth.

I think that Galz is either the Town Promoter or the Traitor. If they are the Traitor then it could also be Galz!MiX, which adds into that idea, but still it is equally likely that he is just being honest.

I think if there is any scenario in 2 of the above being skum are true, it is Joth!MiX... and that is about as far fetched as you can get.

I think MiX is Town over Joth.

The logical explanation is either that this is somehow Skum vs Skum vs Town vs Town, or it is Skum vs Town vs Town vs Town, or I suppose it could be all Town.... but I find the last unlikely.


If faust is lying he will be found out.
If Galz is lying we will get some weird no kill situation, and they will be found out.

That leaves MiX and Joth.


So either...
1) All the skum is within [Ari, Swan, Chairs, ADK, GK, Glooble, Space, EFHW]... which is either 2/8 or 3/8
2) Some amount of skum is within the same pool, and another is within [Joth, Mix, Galz, faust]


... which sucks. I have never played with a Promoter before, but I cannot come up with a solution for this one.


PPE 1
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #881 on: May 04, 2019, 08:26:43 pm »

1) Joth waiting for a claim is weird. There is no world in which there is a CC prior to a target being selected.

Really? I think if faust is scum then a townie tracker speaks up immediately because they know faust is conf!scum, and they have to ensure that faust is the one to go into the 1v1 with Joth, because what better evidence can you ever get that someone is scum than them claiming your own role?

I do think that faust is basically IC, assuming everyone has checked into the thread at least once since he claimed (which I haven't yet checked).
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #882 on: May 04, 2019, 08:46:23 pm »

We should massclaim.

I'm serious. I was looking at the setup and we can get fantastic PoE.

What I'm thinking is:
-bodyguard claims (who cares, they're bodyguard, dying to protect a PR is the point of the role anyway)
-if psychologist has an innocent result from last night (guaranteed to be innocent at this point) that is NOT one of the claimed PRs, they claim with that result
-if psychologist claims, vengeful townie claims

Scum can't counter or fakeclaim this early because we just catch them. If we accept galz's claim (I do), we have six ICs out of 12 people. That leaves 3 scum in 6 people. If we can determine the towniness of just one person in that group, we win

This is an interesting thought, though I do think it's dangerous to assume Galz is definitely town, because I think if he's a goon or the traitor there are strong reasons for him to claim promoter. That means the chance of him being scum is non-negligible, though fwiw I think I'm townreading him.

Anyway, we still might get great PoE if we combine the claims with the existing strong hunches about which players are likely not to be scum with one another, so it still might be a strong idea. For the 12 living players in the game, we could have the Tracker, Vengeful Townie, Psychologist, Bodyguard, and a hoped-for "cannot kill" person from the Psychologist, which is 5 guaranteed townies. We'd lose most of the rest of the PR shots because scum would know exactly who to pick off, though it'll take a few nights to kill them all. If some of the people we have good ideas about the interactions between (e.g. Mix, Galz, Joth and faust, mostly) are in the non-IC'd set, I think it would be possible to narrow the lynchpool quite a lot.

OTOH, maybe we're just saying that we feel like we're already in a reasonably strong position here. Is it even better if we don't force the PRs to claim all at once, let them keep using their PRs for the good of town, and just scum-hunt as usual but avoid lynching anyone who claims a PR unless it's counterclaimed?
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #883 on: May 04, 2019, 09:55:56 pm »

My current sense is that joth, MiX, Galz and faust are all town.

Of the remainder: [Ari, Swan, Chairs, ADK, GK, Glooble, Space, EFHW], 3 are probably scum. 3/7 from my perspective.

I don't think we get as many IC's from claiming as ADK thinks. Both bodyguards and 1-3 scum could claim bodyguard, so that's a wash, no better than the gladiator fight. There might be a traitor, so an innocent result from the psychologist isn't for sure. Psychologist would be IC if not counterclaimed, otherwise 50/50. Vengeful Townie could become IC since scum wouldn't fakeclaim that, given that the counterclaim would lead to their death by revenge even if they aren't lynched. So max two ICs, plus faust.

I'm in favor of proceeding as we have been.
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #884 on: May 04, 2019, 10:03:27 pm »

There only one body guard.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #885 on: May 04, 2019, 10:03:46 pm »

*There’s
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #886 on: May 04, 2019, 10:11:00 pm »

We should massclaim.

I'm serious. I was looking at the setup and we can get fantastic PoE.

What I'm thinking is:
-bodyguard claims (who cares, they're bodyguard, dying to protect a PR is the point of the role anyway)
-if psychologist has an innocent result from last night (guaranteed to be innocent at this point) that is NOT one of the claimed PRs, they claim with that result
-if psychologist claims, vengeful townie claims

Scum can't counter or fakeclaim this early because we just catch them. If we accept galz's claim (I do), we have six ICs out of 12 people. That leaves 3 scum in 6 people. If we can determine the towniness of just one person in that group, we win
Or we could wait and let people claim before lynching them.
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #887 on: May 04, 2019, 10:11:52 pm »

Realistically, massclaim wouldn't finish before joth has to choose his target, so it's not useful today.
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #888 on: May 04, 2019, 10:16:16 pm »

On the other hand ...

Right now town!joth's odds of picking scum are 3/8 from his perspective, 37.5%. If we generate one IC from those 8, that's 43%. 2 IC's, 50%. Or in the case of psychologist counterclaim with both claimants in those 8, we get 50%.

Oh, only one bodyguard. Thanks. That means either IC or 50/50 if counterclaimed.

It does seem like claiming could increase joth's odds of choosing scum about 12.5%. Without claiming, we'll likely get 2 informational results tomorrow and lose the bodyguard. With claiming we'll get 1 or 2 results, 50/50 chance of bodyguard surviving, with scum playing WIFOM with the bodyguard.
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #889 on: May 04, 2019, 10:19:51 pm »

Realistically, massclaim wouldn't finish before joth has to choose his target, so it's not useful today.

~34 hours, we could probably do it. But my argument above is based on the assumption joth, MiX and Galz are all town, so it's probably all a wash anyway.
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #890 on: May 04, 2019, 10:54:19 pm »

I realize you don't like my proposed challengee (Glooble). Maybe the fact that two town PRs suggested him will change your mind? But I doubt it. In lieu of that, I propose gkrieg or Space.

Sorry, I was up for a 23.5 hour span yesterday and was at work today. I’m caught up (reading) but not really mentally able to contribute right now - but I wanted to note that I’m feeling this. I support Faust here.
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Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
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SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #891 on: May 04, 2019, 11:38:58 pm »

1) Joth waiting for a claim is weird. There is no world in which there is a CC prior to a target being selected.

Really? I think if faust is scum then a townie tracker speaks up immediately because they know faust is conf!scum, and they have to ensure that faust is the one to go into the 1v1 with Joth, because what better evidence can you ever get that someone is scum than them claiming your own role?

I do think that faust is basically IC, assuming everyone has checked into the thread at least once since he claimed (which I haven't yet checked).

That’s fair. I suppose a large amount of suspicion i have is based on Joth potentially being skum.
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #892 on: May 05, 2019, 02:03:40 am »

My current sense is that joth, MiX, Galz and faust are all town.

Of the remainder: [Ari, Swan, Chairs, ADK, GK, Glooble, Space, EFHW], 3 are probably scum. 3/7 from my perspective.

I don't think we get as many IC's from claiming as ADK thinks. Both bodyguards and 1-3 scum could claim bodyguard, so that's a wash, no better than the gladiator fight. There might be a traitor, so an innocent result from the psychologist isn't for sure. Psychologist would be IC if not counterclaimed, otherwise 50/50. Vengeful Townie could become IC since scum wouldn't fakeclaim that, given that the counterclaim would lead to their death by revenge even if they aren't lynched. So max two ICs, plus faust.

I'm in favor of proceeding as we have been.


So vengeful townie bit is off by a few notches.  If anything the vengeful claims, there are 2 options.
1) skum does not cc and most likely kills them
2) skum CCs.... then we have 2 potential targets. If we guess right then yay, if not then we loose a townie and we also force that townie to take a shot at a wagon with a absolute maximum of 3/7 shot of finding skum.
3) the claiming i feel needs to stop. We are not in a bad spot. The most valuable role we have is still quiet ... which is good... but at the very least by half claiming we are just limiting their pool of kill selections.
I don’t know where i stand on mass claim - i guess i think this would be a bad time for it given the promoter thing in play.
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #893 on: May 05, 2019, 02:05:13 am »

And with that i am unfortunately going to bed and then work. I will try the best i can to check in prior to the gladiator dl. Would appreciate it Joth could extend that to the longer extent within reason.
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #894 on: May 05, 2019, 02:11:07 am »

Ok last last thing in case i am not back and claim talk goes down.
I think space is correct in their last post regarding letting PRs play out instead of claiming. 10 alive tomorrow even if we mislynch today and skum kills tonight, if less than both of those players are a PR we will have the ability to claim out tomorrow with the addition of some extra results.
Doing it today keeps the prs from further info, and it has the downside of the lynch pool isolation.


Ok now I’m going to bed
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #895 on: May 05, 2019, 04:47:01 am »

I was thinking about massclaim when I said we win if my townreads are correct. I don't think there's any reason to risk it. we can simply claim tomorrow, and if psychologist doesn't die then we (almost) win. I also don't 100% trust Galzria, which would destroy this plan completely.

I am almost 100% sure Swan is scum for thinking Tracker shouldn't instantly counterclaim faust, but there's so many scummy people (mostly everyone who isn't towny) that I'm willing to let him slide for today.

For the same reason, townpoints for Space for saying that we shouldn't massclaim. Not sure what to think of ADK here, really...

Next post's me analyzing Swan's wall post, sorry Swan, but your walls are really confusing at a glance.
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #896 on: May 05, 2019, 04:54:37 am »

1) All the skum is within [Ari, Swan, Chairs, ADK, GK, Glooble, Space, EFHW]... which is either 2/8 or 3/8
2) Some amount of skum is within the same pool, and another is within [Joth, Mix, Galz, faust]

Why is it either 2/8 or 3/8?

The overall post is a really big stretch to scumread ICs. Yeah, I want Swan to claim here.

Vote: Swan
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #897 on: May 05, 2019, 10:32:30 am »

Intent to challenge DatSwan in 6 hours.
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #898 on: May 05, 2019, 10:56:22 am »

I have to say I'm growing to like a joth lynch.
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Re: M122: Lalight's run out of ideas Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #899 on: May 05, 2019, 10:56:52 am »

My current sense is that joth, MiX, Galz and faust are all town.

Of the remainder: [Ari, Swan, Chairs, ADK, GK, Glooble, Space, EFHW], 3 are probably scum. 3/7 from my perspective.

I don't think we get as many IC's from claiming as ADK thinks. Both bodyguards and 1-3 scum could claim bodyguard, so that's a wash, no better than the gladiator fight. There might be a traitor, so an innocent result from the psychologist isn't for sure. Psychologist would be IC if not counterclaimed, otherwise 50/50. Vengeful Townie could become IC since scum wouldn't fakeclaim that, given that the counterclaim would lead to their death by revenge even if they aren't lynched. So max two ICs, plus faust.

I'm in favor of proceeding as we have been.

So vengeful townie bit is off by a few notches.  If anything the vengeful claims, there are 2 options.
1) skum does not cc and most likely kills them
2) skum CCs.... then we have 2 potential targets. If we guess right then yay, if not then we loose a townie and we also force that townie to take a shot at a wagon with a absolute maximum of 3/7 shot of finding skum.

No, if we lose the vengeful townie in a 1:1, they will certainly shoot the fakeclaiming scum.

I'm not sure what it means that DatSwan is missing details like this and the tracker claim issues, but it makes me think town > scum.
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