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Author Topic: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 4)  (Read 4535 times)

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jotheonah

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #675 on: May 16, 2019, 02:17:20 pm »


Of all the things that have confounded and confused me in the years since I began my efforts to reconstruct the story of Baudelaire children, none has been more perplexing than the Vessel for Disaccharides, also known as the sugar bowl, an item apparently prized, and fervently sought, my both factions of the VFD ever since it was originally stolen from a certain now-incomplete tea set. Whether it is the sugar bowl itself that is so highly sought-after or something contained within, I cannot say for certain. It has even been suggested that the sugar bowl is merely a MacGuffin, which here means a plot device whose value lies more in its ability to drive the action in a series of events than in any intrinsic properties, although this assertion strikes me as far-fetched. What I can say for certain is that the fate of the sugar bowl has so far been intrinsically linked to the fate of the Baudelaire children, so I will continue to seek these answers.


Voting - Frequency Disappointing 2.2

WestCoastDidds (2): UncleEurope, faust
MiX (2): DatSwan, pubby
UncleEurope (1): mcmcsalot
pubby (5): Awaclus, MiX, WestCoastDidds, shraeye, A Drowned Kernel

Not voting (2):ashersky, raerae

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch most players. Day 2 will end at 10:00 AM FT on May 19th.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2019, 02:46:50 pm by jotheonah »
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faust

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #676 on: May 16, 2019, 02:28:09 pm »

Does ADK have two votes or is this vote count wrong?
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #677 on: May 16, 2019, 02:44:22 pm »

Does ADK have two votes or is this vote count wrong?

Always assume the vote count is wrong.
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raerae

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #678 on: May 16, 2019, 02:51:52 pm »

It's probably used by scum, you know. Now they know where it is and probably how to go get it. How sure are you that only town can redirect it?

How do you know scum can go grab it?
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #679 on: May 16, 2019, 02:56:11 pm »

It's probably used by scum, you know. Now they know where it is and probably how to go get it. How sure are you that only town can redirect it?

How do you know scum can go grab it?

If scum want the sugar bowl they probably have some way of getting it, right? I can only speculate, but that seems logical.
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raerae

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #680 on: May 16, 2019, 02:59:08 pm »

It's probably used by scum, you know. Now they know where it is and probably how to go get it. How sure are you that only town can redirect it?

How do you know scum can go grab it?

If scum want the sugar bowl they probably have some way of getting it, right? I can only speculate, but that seems logical.

I'm not following that logic. If faust was able to give, it seems crazy that scum could take. Seems more logical to me that you give the sugar bowl at your own risk. What else do you know about the sugar bowl?
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #681 on: May 16, 2019, 03:01:08 pm »

It's probably used by scum, you know. Now they know where it is and probably how to go get it. How sure are you that only town can redirect it?

How do you know scum can go grab it?

If scum want the sugar bowl they probably have some way of getting it, right? I can only speculate, but that seems logical.

I'm not following that logic. If faust was able to give, it seems crazy that scum could take. Seems more logical to me that you give the sugar bowl at your own risk. What else do you know about the sugar bowl?

Nothing. I guess you're right...but you never know. The mere possibility means revealing all this just for Didds to have nothing special about it was bad, but maybe you're right and scum can't interact with it when they don't have it.
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faust

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #682 on: May 16, 2019, 03:52:28 pm »

Hmm.

Vote: MiX
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pubby

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #683 on: May 16, 2019, 03:56:51 pm »

Yikes, 5 votes. Now I remember why I quit playing mafia games. Anyway, I'm gonna be at a convention for all of tomorrow so I guess I'll claim.

I'm a flavor-cop for Baudelaires. I can test to see who's Baudelaire and who isn't. I investigated Awaclus last night and he's not Baudelaire. He claims to be non-volunteer, so that means 50% chance he's scum. (I'm non-volunteer, so that's why it's 3/6 instead of 3/7)

I was gonna vote for him after observing his behavior d2, and well, I guess he's already voted and shared so
Vote: Awaclus
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #684 on: May 16, 2019, 04:03:22 pm »

Right, a new player. Right. Hmm. Why did you target Awaclus? Why did you out someone as non-Baudelaire? Why did you claim now? Is that all you do?

Not sure what to think about this. I want to say that scum!pubby would know better, but...I want answers to my questions first.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #685 on: May 16, 2019, 04:13:01 pm »

Yikes, 5 votes. Now I remember why I quit playing mafia games. Anyway, I'm gonna be at a convention for all of tomorrow so I guess I'll claim.

I'm a flavor-cop for Baudelaires. I can test to see who's Baudelaire and who isn't. I investigated Awaclus last night and he's not Baudelaire. He claims to be non-volunteer, so that means 50% chance he's scum. (I'm non-volunteer, so that's why it's 3/6 instead of 3/7)

I was gonna vote for him after observing his behavior d2, and well, I guess he's already voted and shared so
Vote: Awaclus

Man, if this is true, why would you claim your results?
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #686 on: May 16, 2019, 04:15:51 pm »

He claims to be non-volunteer, so that means 50% chance he's scum. (I'm non-volunteer, so that's why it's 3/6 instead of 3/7)

This is a really good example of a fallicious argument actually. Imagine pubby targetted someone who hasn't claimed to be VFD or not VFD and he got the same result. By his logic, the chances of this person being scum are 1/3 (3/9, since there's 9 possible "roles" said person could be). Now, imagine that person, after pubby came public with the result, claimed their VFDness. Regardless of what they claimed, the chances of being scum would up to 3/6, given this argument. But you KNOW said person's going to claim one of them. Therefore, the odds of any person that is confirmed non-Baudelaire being scum is 3/6, that is, 1/2. This is obviously false. Therefore pubby's argument is wrong.

Anything wrong with the above? I think pubby would've thought about this if he was town.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #687 on: May 16, 2019, 04:25:12 pm »

I think Pubby wouldn't have claimed this result if he was town. Most likely scenario I can think of is him wanting to pass along this info to his partners before he dies.
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #688 on: May 16, 2019, 04:33:23 pm »

I will neither confirm nor deny the claim that I'm not a Baudelaire, but either way I'm keeping the vote on pubby.
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raerae

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #689 on: May 16, 2019, 04:35:07 pm »

Will vote for: pubby, DatSwan, UncleEddie, not necessarily in that order
Heckano won't vote for: basically everybody else unless I'm given the best of reasons
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raerae

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #690 on: May 16, 2019, 04:36:43 pm »

He claims to be non-volunteer, so that means 50% chance he's scum. (I'm non-volunteer, so that's why it's 3/6 instead of 3/7)

This is a really good example of a fallicious argument actually. Imagine pubby targetted someone who hasn't claimed to be VFD or not VFD and he got the same result. By his logic, the chances of this person being scum are 1/3 (3/9, since there's 9 possible "roles" said person could be). Now, imagine that person, after pubby came public with the result, claimed their VFDness. Regardless of what they claimed, the chances of being scum would up to 3/6, given this argument. But you KNOW said person's going to claim one of them. Therefore, the odds of any person that is confirmed non-Baudelaire being scum is 3/6, that is, 1/2. This is obviously false. Therefore pubby's argument is wrong.

Anything wrong with the above? I think pubby would've thought about this if he was town.

1/2 and 50% are the same thing. Didn't you just say the same thing he did but in a more wordy format and then say he's scum because of the same conclusion he drew?
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raerae

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #691 on: May 16, 2019, 04:37:13 pm »

Will vote for: pubby, DatSwan, UncleEddie, not necessarily in that order
Heckano won't vote for: basically everybody else unless I'm given the best of reasons

Adding MiX to that first list now.
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #692 on: May 16, 2019, 04:38:13 pm »

He claims to be non-volunteer, so that means 50% chance he's scum. (I'm non-volunteer, so that's why it's 3/6 instead of 3/7)

This is a really good example of a fallicious argument actually. Imagine pubby targetted someone who hasn't claimed to be VFD or not VFD and he got the same result. By his logic, the chances of this person being scum are 1/3 (3/9, since there's 9 possible "roles" said person could be). Now, imagine that person, after pubby came public with the result, claimed their VFDness. Regardless of what they claimed, the chances of being scum would up to 3/6, given this argument. But you KNOW said person's going to claim one of them. Therefore, the odds of any person that is confirmed non-Baudelaire being scum is 3/6, that is, 1/2. This is obviously false. Therefore pubby's argument is wrong.

Anything wrong with the above? I think pubby would've thought about this if he was town.

1/2 and 50% are the same thing. Didn't you just say the same thing he did but in a more wordy format and then say he's scum because of the same conclusion he drew?

It's impossible for every non-Baudelaire to have a 50% chance to be scum because there's not that many scum, the real percentage would be 33%.
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raerae

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #693 on: May 16, 2019, 04:48:54 pm »

He claims to be non-volunteer, so that means 50% chance he's scum. (I'm non-volunteer, so that's why it's 3/6 instead of 3/7)

This is a really good example of a fallicious argument actually. Imagine pubby targetted someone who hasn't claimed to be VFD or not VFD and he got the same result. By his logic, the chances of this person being scum are 1/3 (3/9, since there's 9 possible "roles" said person could be). Now, imagine that person, after pubby came public with the result, claimed their VFDness. Regardless of what they claimed, the chances of being scum would up to 3/6, given this argument. But you KNOW said person's going to claim one of them. Therefore, the odds of any person that is confirmed non-Baudelaire being scum is 3/6, that is, 1/2. This is obviously false. Therefore pubby's argument is wrong.

Anything wrong with the above? I think pubby would've thought about this if he was town.

1/2 and 50% are the same thing. Didn't you just say the same thing he did but in a more wordy format and then say he's scum because of the same conclusion he drew?

It's impossible for every non-Baudelaire to have a 50% chance to be scum because there's not that many scum, the real percentage would be 33%.

#math

This looks like a moment where you're talking numbers and I'm not following, we've been here, I didn't like it, I'm leaving. But, if we're crucifying people based on their math skills I should probably just get in line.

Don't get me wrong, pubs is totes scum but you putting SO much emphasis on his ability to calculate percentages is pretty damn scummy too.
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pubby

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #694 on: May 16, 2019, 04:52:14 pm »

It's 50-50 if you believe Awaclus is telling the truth when he says he's non-volunteer.

If he's lying, well first of all, we've got a liar here. But the odds with that are 3/8.
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pubby

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #695 on: May 16, 2019, 04:52:53 pm »

Err, to clarify: I mean if he's lying it's 3/8 chance that he's scum.
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #696 on: May 16, 2019, 04:55:04 pm »

Yikes, 5 votes. Now I remember why I quit playing mafia games. Anyway, I'm gonna be at a convention for all of tomorrow so I guess I'll claim.

I'm a flavor-cop for Baudelaires. I can test to see who's Baudelaire and who isn't. I investigated Awaclus last night and he's not Baudelaire. He claims to be non-volunteer, so that means 50% chance he's scum. (I'm non-volunteer, so that's why it's 3/6 instead of 3/7)

I was gonna vote for him after observing his behavior d2, and well, I guess he's already voted and shared so
Vote: Awaclus

Pubby, if you've had this information all day why are you just now pushing for an Awaclus lunch?
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #697 on: May 16, 2019, 04:55:17 pm »

Don't get me wrong, pubs is totes scum but you putting SO much emphasis on his ability to calculate percentages is pretty damn scummy too.

It's really about...one of my questions, and the answer I think he'll say. Not that important yet I suppose, but when he does answer what I think he'll answer this will make sense. Or maybe he has another explanation. Anyway it's a pretty cool thing.

It's 50-50 if you believe Awaclus is telling the truth when he says he's non-volunteer.

If he's lying, well first of all, we've got a liar here. But the odds with that are 3/8.

The problem is that it would always be 50/50 independently of what he claimed. Which would mean everyone you have confirmation that isn't Baudelaire is 50% scum, which is just wrong, given there's more non-Baudelaires than scum.

PPE 1
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raerae

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #698 on: May 16, 2019, 04:56:34 pm »

Yikes, 5 votes. Now I remember why I quit playing mafia games. Anyway, I'm gonna be at a convention for all of tomorrow so I guess I'll claim.

I'm a flavor-cop for Baudelaires. I can test to see who's Baudelaire and who isn't. I investigated Awaclus last night and he's not Baudelaire. He claims to be non-volunteer, so that means 50% chance he's scum. (I'm non-volunteer, so that's why it's 3/6 instead of 3/7)

I was gonna vote for him after observing his behavior d2, and well, I guess he's already voted and shared so
Vote: Awaclus

Pubby, if you've had this information all day why are you just now pushing for an Awaclus lunch?

Sorry, should have finished my thought, I get you wanted to observe him and you didn't just want to throw a vote down but you did nothing to engage him, to get the interaction that would help you determine how alignment. Why just sit back?
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #699 on: May 16, 2019, 04:57:16 pm »

There's a problem with the framework of the analysis, MiX.  Both you and pubby are secretly talking about different sample spaces, basically.  But it's really not worth fixing though.

I'll put the explanation in a quote-box to encourage everybody to just skip the math lesson.
Quote
The basic issue is we don't know what scum would claim vis-a-vis Volunteer.
Suppose I knew that 1 scum would claim Volunteer and the other 2 would not. 
Then a from pubby's "town-non-volun" perspective there are 9 targets and 1/3 chance the result is on scum. 
Once the person claims...
...there is a 4/9 chance they claim Volun (and 1/4 chance they are scum)
...and a 5/9 chance they claim Non-volun (and 2/5 chance they are scum). 
This math works out to the original 1/3 perfectly.

It's probably correct not to make an assumption about scum though. 
Which is why your probability (which did this) makes no sense, and why in general I HATE IT when people try to "probability" mafia games.
By putting 3 scum in the Non-volun category AND 3 scum in the Volun category, all of your probability is basically hinging on a sample space where there are actually 6 scum.
In this space, his original result hits scum 1/2 of the time, and no matter what is claimed the probability that it's on scum is still 1/2.
So again, the math checks out; except it's ridiculous and not applicable.
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