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Author Topic: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Game Over: Town wins)  (Read 11403 times)

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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #600 on: May 15, 2019, 12:00:42 pm »

I am fairly certain WCD is supposed to be voting me, btw.
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Uncleeurope Eddie

DatSwan

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #601 on: May 15, 2019, 12:03:36 pm »

Vote: MiX

Are you voting me for the reason I think you're voting me?

Can i have a hint?
Cuz right now i would assume not.
But i could be wrong in a far off world
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Glooble

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #602 on: May 15, 2019, 12:05:02 pm »

I am fairly certain WCD is supposed to be voting me, btw.

You are correct. There were two votes for you right in a row and I missed hers. Joth will edit when he has time.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #603 on: May 15, 2019, 12:10:22 pm »

Null-to-scummy, mostly null because I have no idea how to read shraeye anymore. A bunch of towny things, like pushing ash, some scummy, like the way he pushed for no lynch and my general gut read on him. Why do you ask? And why do you keep dodging my question?

So, does no one else see pubby as scummy other than "I'm never alone on a wagon" Awaclus? Sad.

Vote: MiX

Are you voting me for the reason I think you're voting me?

Can i have a hint?
Cuz right now i would assume not.
But i could be wrong in a far off world

I see, thank you for your kind answer. Why are you voting for me then?
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I donít think even MiX is townreading MiX.

Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #604 on: May 15, 2019, 12:15:44 pm »

See, I feel like I am taking the question to the forehead every time, but you keep saying I am dodging it.
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Uncleeurope Eddie

shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #605 on: May 15, 2019, 12:44:37 pm »

Ok, summarizing my thoughts.

-raerae/shraeye/shraerae: I definitely noticed her townreading me yesterday when (based on how I had been playing) I expected her not too.  Super odd; I thought deeply about it and have come to the conclusion that she literally knows I'm town.  Now you might argue "that's because all scum know who town is", but you would be wrong.  So, I'm not sure if I've buddied her yet, but consider this hardcore buddying.  If you have any reason to believe I'm town, believe that raerae is town.  And vice-versa.

- faust: gloating does not look good on you, man.  First, it's gross. Second, it's wrong and unwarrented.
You're saying you expect Baudelair deaths to be coming in like hotcakes?  No chance that they can stay hidden through the extra 0.3 days a no lynch gains?
I stand by my sentiment here; scum got lucky.  I still don't expect Boudler deaths to come streaming in.  If this is the way scum win, only a perfect town game would beat them.  So I'm not playing to that possibility obviously.
Also it sure is lucky that we didn't lynch D1 so we can now go on to build goo cases that incorporate knowledge we didn't have D1!
This one is scummy man.  Scummy and wrong.  Why, in the name of all things sacred, do you pretend that nobody is dead and no info is out there?

-Awaclus
Bummer you got messed with.  DatSwan said "what do you expect?" But he (and we) should be asking why you and not ADK?  My impression was you had a role that wanted to target non-VFD and ADK wanted to target VFD.  As scum, I'm a bit more worried about ADK I think?  But I don't know.  I think you getting roleblocked might raise my interest in ADK who now changes from 100%-town to 96%-town.  It raises my interest in DatSwan as well; who ignored ADK.
I think DatSwan/ADK are on the townier side of life, but if one of them ever flips scum the other's pass disappears instantly.

But also, I instinctively trusted Awa's claim less than ADK's.  So part of my brain says "of course it was messed with, it never existed!". 
Long story made short: this information makes me more interested in Awa, DatSwan, and ADK, all of whom probably still are on the towny side of my reads-list  So I've said a lot of words that mean nothing in the end, but I think they are important points and I'm interested in people's reactions to all those ideas.

sorry for the formatting, please snip what you want to respond to.  More incoming.
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #606 on: May 15, 2019, 12:58:45 pm »

After that post, I'll be genually surprised if we win this game. This is because no one will follow me on

Vote: shraeye because if I talk about it everything is ruined even further. Except one thing.

@shraeye, why did you mention Swan so much?
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I donít think even MiX is townreading MiX.

shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #607 on: May 15, 2019, 01:03:22 pm »

-pubby
It seems that almost everybody is his partner to me; which makes me realize I really think he's scum. 
Uncle's first post looked laughably scummy, obvious partner
pubby pushed Awaclus hard on claim, but not ADK.  ADK's another partner
MiX scumread pubby for a second, literally gave assurance that it was towny anyway, then voted for pubby 4 posts later.  Partner, duh.
I could not remember a single instance of faust/pubby interaction.  A cursory search of fausts posts confirm this.  PARTNER.

Well, I clearly can't be right about all those partners.  But when my subconsious is that active on a player I listen.  He also features in at least one other scumhunting result (because, stuff happened yesterday that's worth analyzing despite everybody else's insistence).

My current call for a team is pubby/faust/Uncle.  I could see Uncle being swapped for ash there (I know I know, he's not even one of pubby's "partners".  sue me)

Well, thats enough for now.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #608 on: May 15, 2019, 01:07:04 pm »

@shraeye, why did you mention Swan so much?
I'm pretty sure I mentioned ADK's name more times there.  DatSwan features in the Awa/DatSwan/ADK group because he was pestering Awa about it.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #609 on: May 15, 2019, 01:09:04 pm »

Sorry, crazy day today. Iíve read everything so far, find the no lynch crowd to be problematic. Anyone for kill analysis?

Do you have any thoughts on the kill?

Baudelaire hunting. Consider my IC pass on you revoked.

@Eddie, saying shraeye's not your top scumread doesn't tell me something new, can you actually answer my question?
Mix, stop it.  Thoughts on the kill are crucial.  Remember how everybody is crying because we have "no info".  THATS the info we have, use it.  It is not Boudlair hunting.
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #610 on: May 15, 2019, 01:17:09 pm »

After further review I withdraw my previous statement. Sorry, but I like giving reactions when they're hot.

Vote: pubby again.
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I donít think even MiX is townreading MiX.

WestCoastDidds

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #611 on: May 15, 2019, 01:52:49 pm »

Lunch break! I reread e to see if I saw any hint he was a Baudelaire.

I got nothing... but here are the highlights (there are only 23 posts, total)

82- votes Awaclus for following the plan
He has a fairly long post at #93 analyzing the claiming plan
95- votes pubby
96- recommends town not fake anything
347, 353, 356 argues with raerae about no lynch (he thinks its a bad idea)
348- pubby is scum, but will move his vote to lynch
411- votes MiX

So, I am not sure how he was anything but a lucky shot. Pubby was his most long-lasting read...and maybe the one that got him killed? So, vote: pubby
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It's probably not townie mctownerson WCD.

DatSwan

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #612 on: May 15, 2019, 02:01:56 pm »

In reply to Eddie and Swan (maybe...on my phone)
It is very towny and predictable of me to reread and try to make assessments based on that.

Not I my good lady - i have been TRing you the entire game.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #613 on: May 15, 2019, 02:20:03 pm »

So E.

I've check out votes D1.  Interesting stuff.

My theory is that E was shot at because he didn't have many interactions or very prominent ones.  Scum is trying to lean into "no lynch gives no info" by killing an unknown entity.  So this makes me ask two questions
1) Who was unknown (aka, who should've been on their "target list")?
2) who's leaning into the "oh shucks, why'd they kill E now theres NO INFORMATION?" angle.

My heart wants to think that conclusions from #2 will be more informative, but this gets confounded with stuff like "how against no-lynch are you?".   So I'm focusing way more on #1.

Here is my table of info:
name   | votes cast  |    votes received
ADK           9                        3
ash            2                        8
Awacl         6                        5
DatSwan    2                         4
E               3                        3
faust         5                        1
mcmc         4                        1
MiX            11                       10
pubby         4                        5
raerae         6                        2
shraeye       4                        7
Uncle         8                        7
WCD          4                         5

Looking at this list, DatSwan, E, faust, mcmc, pubby, raerae are on the low end.

But more important than these raw numbers is some context.  Like, how many of those votes are RVS? How many were in scramble time?  Also, these columns don't add up because some votes went to no-lynch.  Ok.  Let's break it down more.  Also, remember when UncleEurope voted for two people in the same post (twice).  I do, because I had to decide how to classify it. (I treated those 4 votes as 1 for E, 1 for pubby, 1 for shraeye)

So I've decided that post #70 is the "last RVS" even though I gave one later.  And I had a hard time deciding where "scramble" came into play.  I want to say #370 when WCD put nolynch to 4 votes.  All of this has implications unfortunately, but onto Step 2.

R means RVS, M means main, S means scramble

name   | votes cast  |    votes received
             R    M    S           R    M     S
ADK       1     6    2           2    1     0
ash        0     1    1           0    7     1           
Awacl     1     4    1           0    5     0
DatSwan 0    1    1           0    3     1
E            0    2    1           0    3     0
faust       0    3    2           0    1     0
mcmc     0     2    2           1    0     0
MiX         1    7    3           0    3     7
pubby     1     1    2           1    3     0
raerae     0     5    0           1    1     0
shraeye   0     4    0           0    6     1
Uncle      1     5    1           0    1     6
WCD       0     2    2           0    5     0

I know some people will notice issues, or disagree with my classifications.  But I hope you can all see that this is just meant to be a proxy for "interactions".  For example, faust and raerae have a medium number of votes given, a very low number received.  But I don't think anybody in the thread would have found a faust or a raerae death "uninformative".

I see three players who contributed very little in Main-phase: ash, DatSwan, pubby.  WCD, mcmc, E are right outside that group.
Four players got virtually no heat: ADK, faust, mcmc, raerae.  Just outside that bubble are E, pubby, DatSwan.

Common to both lists: DatSwan, pubby, mcmc, E.  So now I'm trying to recall what these players contributed.  My recollection was pubby < mcmc < E < DatSwan.  This recollection is the alluded-to reason that people acting weird near pubby instantly became his "partner"

So the question we all need to seriously ask ourselves is "was there a compelling reason to shoot at E instead of {pubby, mcmc, DatSwan}.  A very compelling reason would be "well they are on our team and we don't want to shoot them."  I think pubby in particular needs to be looked at.
New player in these games, very little meta to work with, very little framework to interpret the few interactions he did have.  That would have been a VERY GOOD "deny town info" nightkill.
Second guess, DatSwan.  This comes from the implications of my cut-offs earlier.  One of the votes for DatSwan in the main-phase was me, and that was an RVS vote (a joke about how plans have "wasted" our time and we can finally start).  He votes me back, in what felt like a continuation of that joke.  So in my mind I see DatSwan as having even fewer votes than that table shows.

Adding to this pubby's insistance that Day1 gave us no info
Meh I feel like nothing was gained from yesterday.

Vote: MiX

And all of that is worth
vote: pubby
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shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #614 on: May 15, 2019, 02:27:03 pm »

Also interesting.  E voted pubby, and the only main-phase vote that pubby cast was against E.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #615 on: May 15, 2019, 02:28:34 pm »

In reply to Eddie and Swan (maybe...on my phone)
It is very towny and predictable of me to reread and try to make assessments based on that.

Not I my good lady - i have been TRing you the entire game.

Ah, sorry. Good catch.
On a computer now....It was Eddie and Mcmc who said I was being uncharacteristic by having reads. But it's not. Reading, like cake, is something I do well. :)
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raerae

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #616 on: May 15, 2019, 02:35:00 pm »

After that post, I'll be genually surprised if we win this game. This is because no one will follow me on

Vote: shraeye because if I talk about it everything is ruined even further. Except one thing.

@shraeye, why did you mention Swan so much?

Explain your case in shraeye again, please?
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shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #617 on: May 15, 2019, 02:38:25 pm »

After that post, I'll be genually surprised if we win this game. This is because no one will follow me on

Vote: shraeye because if I talk about it everything is ruined even further. Except one thing.

@shraeye, why did you mention Swan so much?

Explain your case in shraeye again, please?

I'd rather he not.  I find it moot because he said he withdrew his statement.
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raerae

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #618 on: May 15, 2019, 02:40:51 pm »

After that post, I'll be genually surprised if we win this game. This is because no one will follow me on

Vote: shraeye because if I talk about it everything is ruined even further. Except one thing.

@shraeye, why did you mention Swan so much?

Explain your case in shraeye again, please?

I'd rather he not.  I find it moot because he said he withdrew his statement.

I wasn't caught up at that point.
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #619 on: May 15, 2019, 02:43:22 pm »

name   | votes cast  |    votes received
MiX            11                       10

Double digits! I win!


Overall this post is...a really big ball of effort. And valuing Uncle's "double votes" as a real vote, twice, seems more of a partner interaction than your examples of such with pubby.

You're also missing that pubby is a new player, thus it's nice to have him around, not to mention he was fairly scummy. I don't agree with every reasoning here, but the "oh noez there's no info" makes sense.
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I donít think even MiX is townreading MiX.

shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #620 on: May 15, 2019, 02:55:34 pm »

I'm definitely not forgetting that pubby is a new player.  That factors in my reasons for voting him.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #621 on: May 15, 2019, 02:58:04 pm »

re double-votes.  I'd say Uncles votes constitute at least a Finger-of-suspicion on E and myself.  Hence interaction.  Hence, it counts.

As I said, disagreeing with which votes go where doesn't really address the main point of my analysis, which is to get a proxy measure for "how much info does this death give?"
Unless you think my sorting is wildly wrong enough that a whole different conclusion should have been reached.
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #622 on: May 15, 2019, 03:06:33 pm »

re double-votes.  I'd say Uncles votes constitute at least a Finger-of-suspicion on E and myself.  Hence interaction.  Hence, it counts.

As I said, disagreeing with which votes go where doesn't really address the main point of my analysis, which is to get a proxy measure for "how much info does this death give?"
Unless you think my sorting is wildly wrong enough that a whole different conclusion should have been reached.

Just that Eddie would only be voting once in Main if you don't count those. But given that he wouldn't enter the combined list (I looked closer) I guess it doesn't make sense for you to do so intentionally.
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I donít think even MiX is townreading MiX.

faust

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #623 on: May 15, 2019, 04:03:25 pm »

vote: pubby
That was a lot of posting just to end up with an uninspired vote.

I think the whole premise of asking "why e?" is just a bit... misguided? Last time stats were made, e was the most nightkilled player on f.ds. There's lots of reasons for scum to vote for him, not the least that he's a good player. I don't believe "denying town information" was ever the main driver behind any nightkill. And I think voting pubby for not being nigtkilled is just plain bad reasoning. Of course he wasn't nightkilled, he's a newbie, newbies don't get nightkilled.

That said, shraeye is probably town.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #624 on: May 15, 2019, 04:04:04 pm »

vote: pubby
That was a lot of posting just to end up with an uninspired vote.

I think the whole premise of asking "why e?" is just a bit... misguided? Last time stats were made, e was the most nightkilled player on f.ds. There's lots of reasons for scum to vote forkill him, not the least that he's a good player. I don't believe "denying town information" was ever the main driver behind any nightkill. And I think voting pubby for not being nigtkilled is just plain bad reasoning. Of course he wasn't nightkilled, he's a newbie, newbies don't get nightkilled.

That said, shraeye is probably town.
EBWOP
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.
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