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Author Topic: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Game Over: Town wins)  (Read 147377 times)

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jotheonah

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Night 0)
« Reply #175 on: May 08, 2019, 10:45:50 am »

The game of mafia is a game of strategic deception, which here means that winning the game requires carefully convincing others in the game that you are something you are not.

Luckily for Count Olaf, he and his henchmen were troupe of actors, which ought to have prepared them for the role. Unluckily for Count Olaf, he was a very poor actor, who had been called "bland", "unconvincing", and "hackneyed" by the Daily Punctilio. Nonetheless, he was able to fool a great many adults in the Baudelaires' life into giving him access to the children.

The game of mafia is also a game of social deduction, which here means that winning the game requires carefully determining, through social observation, which others in the game are claiming to be something they are not.

Luckily for the Baudelaires, their experiences with their series of ill-fated guardians had given them a good deal of experience with mysteries, which ought to have prepared them for the role. Unfortunately, some of the greatest mysteries, such as the nature of the VFD and the importance of the sugar bowl, have remained beyond their grasp.


Vote Count 1.2

A Drowned Kernel (1):pubby
pubby (3): 2.71828....., Uncleeurope, MiX
MiX (1): Awaclus
shraeye (1): raerae
Awaclus (1): faust
WestCoastDidds (1): A Drowned Kernel

Not voting (5): shraeye, WestCoastDidds, DatSwan, ashersky, mcmcsalot

With 13 players alive, it take 7 to lynch most players. Day 1 will end at 8:35 AM FT on May 12th.
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raerae

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #176 on: May 08, 2019, 10:50:39 am »

I guess Swan opens every game with strange, convoluted, wrong theories regarding the setup? I fail to see how he forgot scum can claim 1 or 2 Volunteers, that's really the worst part about this plan.

I did some math, and even if we somehow lynched the scum!Volunteer D1, all scum needs to do is NK Baudelaire and they end up in an aproximately 30.55% winrate for town (barring PRs, so it should go higher). This wouldn't be so bad, but that's only if we get remarkably lucky D1, which is incredibly hard. Great, now I'm against the plan, should've thought about it. Hopefully the 2 claims help ADK's targetting.

This math doesn't help you scumhunt and only makes your posts look larger and more meaningful.
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #177 on: May 08, 2019, 10:53:03 am »

I can't see in what scenario always claiming Baudelaire helps town. At all.

Vote: ash, pubby has enough heat...for now.

PPE 1: I guess, but given I calculated it while thinking about the plan I thought I should just give it. The exact number isn't that useful.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #178 on: May 08, 2019, 12:02:46 pm »

For the record, every single player should claim Mason at L-1.

No, bad, awful.
That's a pretty strange way to word things.  But it's equivalent to "people shouldn't claim at L-1" which is a fine and reasonable position to take.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #179 on: May 08, 2019, 12:05:34 pm »

But it's so obviously true! Also I'm against all Awaclus lynches, last time we played I was really really happy he got lynched.

Aaaaand, we kick of another edition of shraeye doesn't understand MiX.


You are against ALL Awaclus lynches.....last time you played you were happy he was lynched...

So is that the REASON why you are against Awaclus lynches?  Why would past happiness cause present unwillingness to repeat the happiness-causing scenario?

Or were you against it last time as well, but happy about it regardless?
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shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #180 on: May 08, 2019, 12:07:00 pm »

I don't want to reveal everything that I know about the subject but it helps town pretty substantially.
Ehhh I think you need to reveal more.

You already have one person claiming to be volunteer (ADK). Is that not enough for you? Like, I don't get why you need to know ALL the volunteers right this moment when that narrows the pool so much for scum.
No he doesn't.  What makes you think you know more than he does about what his correct action is?
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #181 on: May 08, 2019, 12:07:48 pm »

But it's so obviously true! Also I'm against all Awaclus lynches, last time we played I was really really happy he got lynched.

Aaaaand, we kick of another edition of shraeye doesn't understand MiX.


You are against ALL Awaclus lynches.....last time you played you were happy he was lynched...

So is that the REASON why you are against Awaclus lynches?  Why would past happiness cause present unwillingness to repeat the happiness-causing scenario?

Or were you against it last time as well, but happy about it regardless?

Last time I was scum! I guess you needed that extra bit of information. I was really scared of Awaclus and I loved it when town gave me an opportunity to vote for him without actually expressing any real scumread. So, yeah, I was happy, but now I'm town, so I want to be happy the other way, which is keeping Awaclus alive and having him be a complete pain to scum, maybe himself included.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #182 on: May 08, 2019, 12:08:31 pm »

What do you make of Awa needing to know who is non-VFD?
I think it's a cover-up for him supporting a plan that would hurt town.
I think that sounds far-fetched.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #183 on: May 08, 2019, 12:09:50 pm »

Scum is flavor-wise tied to the VFD right? It seems reasonable to assume that they would benefit from knowing the other members as well, even beyond the PoE is provides.

In the books, the arsonists used to be VFD and then turned bad. So, kind of, yeah.

Ah...I'm pretty sure VFD-affecting powers will work on scum...and scum probably have powers affecting VFD.

Vote: Didds for insisting on this issue, causing ADK and Awaclus to soft-claim. I would think town!Didds knows that she shouldn't push setup talk too much.
100% disagree.

Didds is always interested in setup analysis, but doesn't do it well herself.  She's always interested in people explaining the setup to her.

ALSO, Didds in absolutely NO WAY caused ADK to soft-claim, because ADK straight-up claimed Volunteer on his own.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #184 on: May 08, 2019, 12:13:41 pm »

Scum is flavor-wise tied to the VFD right? It seems reasonable to assume that they would benefit from knowing the other members as well, even beyond the PoE is provides.

In the books, the arsonists used to be VFD and then turned bad. So, kind of, yeah.

Ah...I'm pretty sure VFD-affecting powers will work on scum...and scum probably have powers affecting VFD.

Vote: Didds for insisting on this issue, causing ADK and Awaclus to soft-claim. I would think town!Didds knows that she shouldn't push setup talk too much.
100% disagree.

Didds is always interested in setup analysis, but doesn't do it well herself.  She's always interested in people explaining the setup to her.

ALSO, Didds in absolutely NO WAY caused ADK to soft-claim, because ADK straight-up claimed Volunteer on his own.

aaaand, now that I'm totally caught up, I see that most of these points have already been addressed.  Except that Didds was simply "claiming" that this is her meta.  Consider her claim confirmed.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #185 on: May 08, 2019, 12:15:06 pm »

Didds is always interested in setup analysis, but doesn't do it well herself.  She's always interested in people explaining the setup to her.

This should absolutely be my new signature line.

Also, the reason why I suck at chess but am quite good at crossword puzzles and escape rooms. Thinking through if/then scenarios...ughhhhh
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shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #186 on: May 08, 2019, 12:15:50 pm »

But it's so obviously true! Also I'm against all Awaclus lynches, last time we played I was really really happy he got lynched.

Aaaaand, we kick of another edition of shraeye doesn't understand MiX.


You are against ALL Awaclus lynches.....last time you played you were happy he was lynched...

So is that the REASON why you are against Awaclus lynches?  Why would past happiness cause present unwillingness to repeat the happiness-causing scenario?

Or were you against it last time as well, but happy about it regardless?

Last time I was scum! I guess you needed that extra bit of information. I was really scared of Awaclus and I loved it when town gave me an opportunity to vote for him without actually expressing any real scumread. So, yeah, I was happy, but now I'm town, so I want to be happy the other way, which is keeping Awaclus alive and having him be a complete pain to scum, maybe himself included.
It is very important to include as many relevant bits of information as possible.  And to get to the heart of a matter.  Such as, why do assume Awaclus will be a pain to scum?  Why does this outweigh the possibility that he IS scum?
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #187 on: May 08, 2019, 12:19:10 pm »

Shraeye, what do you make of ADK's thoughts about the Vs claiming? and Asher's thoughts about everyone claim Baudelaire at L-1?

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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #188 on: May 08, 2019, 12:29:41 pm »

But it's so obviously true! Also I'm against all Awaclus lynches, last time we played I was really really happy he got lynched.

Aaaaand, we kick of another edition of shraeye doesn't understand MiX.


You are against ALL Awaclus lynches.....last time you played you were happy he was lynched...

So is that the REASON why you are against Awaclus lynches?  Why would past happiness cause present unwillingness to repeat the happiness-causing scenario?

Or were you against it last time as well, but happy about it regardless?

Last time I was scum! I guess you needed that extra bit of information. I was really scared of Awaclus and I loved it when town gave me an opportunity to vote for him without actually expressing any real scumread. So, yeah, I was happy, but now I'm town, so I want to be happy the other way, which is keeping Awaclus alive and having him be a complete pain to scum, maybe himself included.

It is very important to include as many relevant bits of information as possible.  And to get to the heart of a matter.  Such as, why do assume Awaclus will be a pain to scum?  Why does this outweigh the possibility that he IS scum?

Well, I think Awaclus is someone who plays an extremely pro-town game, and I believe scum want him gone in all games. That's what I remember from the games I've read of him, and it's what happened in the game I played with him. His meta also means it's incredibly easy to make town push for his mislynch (somehow), so I'm here to say, well, I'm offering resistance. I did it before (for a bit, then I flipped on him because I was scum) and I'll do it again. Also faust's case on Awaclus is pretty weak, I'll need much, MUCH more to lynch Awaclus D1.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #189 on: May 08, 2019, 12:33:55 pm »

Shraeye, what do you make of ADK's thoughts about the Vs claiming? and Asher's thoughts about everyone claim Baudelaire at L-1?
Answering the question
Both seem like reasonable plans for them to propose, but that doesn't mean I agree with them.  As always, I will come to my own decision for my own reasons regarding claiming.

But the position that ADK is scummy because of what he says is silly.  The position that ash is scummy because of what he says is also silly. Neither of those two specific thoughts did anything to move my scum/town radar on those two players.

My surrounding thoughts:
ADK is towny and his Volunteer claim is totally believable.

I like asher's idea, but from a different perspective.  "Nobody claim" is an equivalent stance to asher's stance, and it's an idea that's run through my head in a "What if...?" sort of way.  f.ds plays the claim-game weird, so wanting to shake it up like this seems reasonable.  If this setup in particular makes it an even stronger stance than normal, then there's that as well.
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faust

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #190 on: May 08, 2019, 01:10:31 pm »

Also, the reason why I suck at chess but am quite good at crossword puzzles and escape rooms.
Also cake. Don't forget the cake!
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faust

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #191 on: May 08, 2019, 01:13:17 pm »

Well, I think Awaclus is someone who plays an extremely pro-town game, and I believe scum want him gone in all games. That's what I remember from the games I've read of him, and it's what happened in the game I played with him. His meta also means it's incredibly easy to make town push for his mislynch (somehow), so I'm here to say, well, I'm offering resistance. I did it before (for a bit, then I flipped on him because I was scum) and I'll do it again. Also faust's case on Awaclus is pretty weak, I'll need much, MUCH more to lynch Awaclus D1.
This is really framing it in a wrong light because I'm not voting Awaclus for being in his meta, I am very specifically voting him for going against it and offering up information and help to scum.
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #192 on: May 08, 2019, 01:24:00 pm »

Well, I think Awaclus is someone who plays an extremely pro-town game, and I believe scum want him gone in all games. That's what I remember from the games I've read of him, and it's what happened in the game I played with him. His meta also means it's incredibly easy to make town push for his mislynch (somehow), so I'm here to say, well, I'm offering resistance. I did it before (for a bit, then I flipped on him because I was scum) and I'll do it again. Also faust's case on Awaclus is pretty weak, I'll need much, MUCH more to lynch Awaclus D1.
This is really framing it in a wrong light because I'm not voting Awaclus for being in his meta, I am very specifically voting him for going against it and offering up information and help to scum.

I'm not doing either of those things. You could say I helped scum by telling them something they would surely have figured out on their own anyway. Meh.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #193 on: May 08, 2019, 01:26:08 pm »

Well, I think Awaclus is someone who plays an extremely pro-town game, and I believe scum want him gone in all games. That's what I remember from the games I've read of him, and it's what happened in the game I played with him. His meta also means it's incredibly easy to make town push for his mislynch (somehow), so I'm here to say, well, I'm offering resistance. I did it before (for a bit, then I flipped on him because I was scum) and I'll do it again. Also faust's case on Awaclus is pretty weak, I'll need much, MUCH more to lynch Awaclus D1.
This is really framing it in a wrong light because I'm not voting Awaclus for being in his meta, I am very specifically voting him for going against it and offering up information and help to scum.

I agree with this. And I'm a bit confounded with ADK's remark that Awa's comments tend to be substantial.

PPE 1
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pubby

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #194 on: May 08, 2019, 02:12:27 pm »

No he doesn't.  What makes you think you know more than he does about what his correct action is?
Because I'll only reveal my volunteer status if there's a good reason to. If ADK or Awaclus need to know all the volunteers statuses then they'll have to explain why lest they won't get mine.

Right now, Awaclus has one claimed volunteer (ADK) and one claimed non-volunteer (MiX). If he has a single-target action then he doesn't need more information today and shouldn't be asking others to claim volunteer status until tomorrow. If he needs more volunteers, then again, I expect him to get persuasive or gain credibility.
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #195 on: May 08, 2019, 02:15:03 pm »

Well, I actually don't need volunteers at all. It would be nice to get at least one non-volunteer that I'm not scumreading though.
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #196 on: May 08, 2019, 02:21:15 pm »


I am very curious about the sugar bowl.
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #197 on: May 08, 2019, 02:54:56 pm »

No he doesn't.  What makes you think you know more than he does about what his correct action is?
Because I'll only reveal my volunteer status if there's a good reason to. If ADK or Awaclus need to know all the volunteers statuses then they'll have to explain why lest they won't get mine.

Right now, Awaclus has one claimed volunteer (ADK) and one claimed non-volunteer (MiX). If he has a single-target action then he doesn't need more information today and shouldn't be asking others to claim volunteer status until tomorrow. If he needs more volunteers, then again, I expect him to get persuasive or gain credibility.

What qualifies as "good reason" to you?
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #198 on: May 08, 2019, 03:00:54 pm »

Well, I think Awaclus is someone who plays an extremely pro-town game, and I believe scum want him gone in all games. That's what I remember from the games I've read of him, and it's what happened in the game I played with him. His meta also means it's incredibly easy to make town push for his mislynch (somehow), so I'm here to say, well, I'm offering resistance. I did it before (for a bit, then I flipped on him because I was scum) and I'll do it again. Also faust's case on Awaclus is pretty weak, I'll need much, MUCH more to lynch Awaclus D1.
This is really framing it in a wrong light because I'm not voting Awaclus for being in his meta, I am very specifically voting him for going against it and offering up information and help to scum.

I agree with this. And I'm a bit confounded with ADK's remark that Awa's comments tend to be substantial.

PPE 1

He doesn't say much, but what he says is almost always relevant.
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #199 on: May 08, 2019, 03:20:40 pm »

Scum is flavor-wise tied to the VFD right? It seems reasonable to assume that they would benefit from knowing the other members as well, even beyond the PoE is provides.

In the books, the arsonists used to be VFD and then turned bad. So, kind of, yeah.

Ah...I'm pretty sure VFD-affecting powers will work on scum...and scum probably have powers affecting VFD.

Vote: Didds for insisting on this issue, causing ADK and Awaclus to soft-claim. I would think town!Didds knows that she shouldn't push setup talk too much.
100% disagree.

Didds is always interested in setup analysis, but doesn't do it well herself.  She's always interested in people explaining the setup to her.

ALSO, Didds in absolutely NO WAY caused ADK to soft-claim, because ADK straight-up claimed Volunteer on his own.

I agree with this to the extent that WCD prolonging the set up analysis is in no way skummy for them.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss
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