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Author Topic: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Game Over: Town wins)  (Read 147300 times)

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faust

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #100 on: May 07, 2019, 04:15:42 pm »

Vote: e
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faust

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #101 on: May 07, 2019, 04:17:29 pm »

As for the plan, there's really no way to judge it. I think having the Baudelaires locked into some subgroup is pretty bad. At the very least I'll give ADK 24 hours to think about this, and if he still thinks it's a good idea then we can talk.
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #102 on: May 07, 2019, 04:25:11 pm »

Yeah, it seems I overlooked the fact that scum gain a lot of PoE...but so does town! It essencially accelerates this game, whose value depends on the VFD PRs (and town PRs, but those aren't ICs so not as much). This is definitely a better plan, however.

10 people, 3 scum, 3 ICs... 7-3 split...okay, probabilities are probably next...or now?

7-3, mislynch, 6-3, 50% of a B flip, we wake up 5-3, mislynch, 4-3, 75% of a B flip, if yes then 3-3 in worse-than-LyLo odds, otherwise it's simply 3-3 LyLo. Hmm, just doing what E did. Might expand on this...

Well, or scum claims VFD and this is terrible. Lots of options here, really. Maybe too many for a successful plan? I'll look into it.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #103 on: May 07, 2019, 04:32:32 pm »

Why is raerae not here? :(
She's been busy playing with bears.

What does she play with the bears? Pinochle?
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #104 on: May 07, 2019, 04:36:05 pm »

I’m a she, in central time, I believe animals should have human names so there is some ambiguity when speaking about loved ones, children, and cats....Scott, Brad, Jeremy, Declan...who can tell which us which?!?
Alternatively, you could give your children animal names!

He has a point, Didds.

+1 faust
+1 raerae

This is a genius plan. The children have human names now, but they could easily find themselves with a super sticky nickname that they can carry through life.  I'm thinking Tiger and Boots...
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #105 on: May 07, 2019, 04:44:36 pm »

This is a genius plan. The children have human names now, but they could easily find themselves with a super sticky nickname that they can carry through life.  I'm thinking Tiger and Boots...

Tiger and Boots sounds like a cool name. If a country can be called Trinidad and Tobago, why can't a human be Tiger and Boots?
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #106 on: May 07, 2019, 04:44:55 pm »

I'm going to stand next to faust and raerae for awhile....I am not sure that the benefits of claiming into smaller groups is super helpful since scum already know who is in their group.  Helping them narrow it further doesn't seem helpful to town. I can be convinced otherwise because thinking through information scenarios is not my strong suit (what is my strong suit, you ask? Cake), but for the time being I'm keeping my trapper shut and following the arguments that ADK, Awa, pubby, and MiX are making.

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #107 on: May 07, 2019, 04:45:39 pm »

This is a genius plan. The children have human names now, but they could easily find themselves with a super sticky nickname that they can carry through life.  I'm thinking Tiger and Boots...

Tiger and Boots sounds like a cool name. If a country can be called Trinidad and Tobago, why can't a human be Tiger and Boots?

An excellent point.
+1 Awaclus
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raerae

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #108 on: May 07, 2019, 04:46:09 pm »

Why is raerae not here? :(
She's been busy playing with bears.

What does she play with the bears? Pinochle?

Hide and seek!
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #109 on: May 07, 2019, 04:48:30 pm »

I'm going to stand next to faust and raerae for awhile....I am not sure that the benefits of claiming into smaller groups is super helpful since scum already know who is in their group.  Helping them narrow it further doesn't seem helpful to town. I can be convinced otherwise because thinking through information scenarios is not my strong suit (what is my strong suit, you ask? Cake), but for the time being I'm keeping my trapper shut and following the arguments that ADK, Awa, pubby, and MiX are making.

Your strong suit is being town, acting town, making everyone believe you're town, actually turn out to be town (very important, you'll do this here, right?) and, most importantly, annoying me to god knows where. That last one lost me the game last time we played! It's pretty useful, even if I wish it didn't happen :P
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raerae

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #110 on: May 07, 2019, 05:01:07 pm »

I'm going to stand next to faust and raerae for awhile....I am not sure that the benefits of claiming into smaller groups is super helpful since scum already know who is in their group.  Helping them narrow it further doesn't seem helpful to town. I can be convinced otherwise because thinking through information scenarios is not my strong suit (what is my strong suit, you ask? Cake), but for the time being I'm keeping my trapper shut and following the arguments that ADK, Awa, pubby, and MiX are making.

Your strong suit is being town, acting town, making everyone believe you're town, actually turn out to be town (very important, you'll do this here, right?) and, most importantly, annoying me to god knows where. That last one lost me the game last time we played! It's pretty useful, even if I wish it didn't happen :P

Naw, I'm pretty sure it's cake.
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #111 on: May 07, 2019, 05:35:23 pm »

I fail to see value in volunteer claiming.

The only setup specific public info is 3 scum out of 6 volunteers, 3 Masons of whom 1 needs to live, an assumption that Masons cannot also be Volunteers based mainly on flavor. No other public info is useful here.

Scum want to kill Masons. I don’t think they want to kill them at night as badly as some make it seems, since just winning the normal way also works.  Yes, hitting the right three players to win on N3 is nice, but by no means necessary. A perfect scum vanilla game ends on D4 at 4v3 lylo anyway, so the flavor win mechanic is cutesy but not as horrendous as some might make it out to be, considering.

But, as mentioned, claiming anything at all by anyone only narrows down the NK pool for scum. This isn’t just about Volunteers. Assuming only the three town volunteers claim, that gives three scum info about 3 of 10 townies. It gives townies info about 3 of 12 players. Assuming you are a full doctor for a hypothetical, you narrow your target pool to 8 players (after a lynch) while the kill pool is down to 6 (after a mislynch).

I think any and all claims benefit scum. Volunteers and Masons should claim at L-1, but otherwise I don’t think anyone should claim without strong info to share.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #112 on: May 07, 2019, 06:15:06 pm »

Eh, I can Vote: e

I have that power.

No one can stop me.

Except me... Vote: pubby
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #113 on: May 07, 2019, 07:06:21 pm »

Hey Everyone.

So It has been a while since I read the books, but the main flavor flaw I find with the Volunteer Claim is in the story (if I remember correctly) they find bad guys in their mix. Kind of leads me to believe that skum would have fake claims so they could safely claim VFD.

If that is correct, then either...

1) Skum decides not to fake claim. That means 3 VFD claim, and the 3 arsonists know who one and other are. So out of the 13 players that narrows the field of finding the kiddos from 3/10 to 3/7.

2) Skum decides to fake claim. That means 6 VFD claim, and the 3 arsonists know who one and other are. So skum can push the angle to lynch the real VFD, but also put their necks out a little. Still in the end, gives them the same improved NK odds of finding the kiddos at 3/7 instead of 3/10.


From a VT PoV - if there are only 3 VFD claims, it would help isolate to finding skum to 3/9.

From a Kiddo PoV - if there are only 3 VFD claims, it would help isolate to finding skum to 3/6.

And then obviously, regardless of Town Alignment, if there were 6 VFD claims, it would give all non claimed town the isolation of 3/6.


Thoughts on that?
I actually think in the end I want to say the claim would benefit Town in the long run, as it would give the children a fantastic PoV advantage in scenario one, and all town a pretty decent one in scenario two.
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #114 on: May 07, 2019, 07:07:34 pm »

Also, if I were to attempt to guess the set up -

3 Children
3 Arsonists
3 VFD
1 Olaf SK
3 VTs (or some random town PR)
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #115 on: May 07, 2019, 07:17:06 pm »

2) Skum decides to fake claim. That means 6 VFD claim, and the 3 arsonists know who one and other are. So skum can push the angle to lynch the real VFD, but also put their necks out a little. Still in the end, gives them the same improved NK odds of finding the kiddos at 3/7 instead of 3/10.

If we have a 3/6 chance of lynching scum and they have a 3/7 chance of killing Baudelaire and we get to go first, mathematically speaking we win. There's no way they're going to let this scenario happen.
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #116 on: May 07, 2019, 07:18:10 pm »

2) Skum decides to fake claim. That means 6 VFD claim, and the 3 arsonists know who one and other are. So skum can push the angle to lynch the real VFD, but also put their necks out a little. Still in the end, gives them the same improved NK odds of finding the kiddos at 3/7 instead of 3/10.

If we have a 3/6 chance of lynching scum and they have a 3/7 chance of killing Baudelaire and we get to go first, mathematically speaking we win. There's no way they're going to let this scenario happen.

I agree with you. I was just mapping out all options.
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #117 on: May 07, 2019, 07:19:05 pm »

2) Skum decides to fake claim. That means 6 VFD claim, and the 3 arsonists know who one and other are. So skum can push the angle to lynch the real VFD, but also put their necks out a little. Still in the end, gives them the same improved NK odds of finding the kiddos at 3/7 instead of 3/10.

If we have a 3/6 chance of lynching scum and they have a 3/7 chance of killing Baudelaire and we get to go first, mathematically speaking we win. There's no way they're going to let this scenario happen.

Also, it kind of just makes me like the plan more.
I agree with you. I was just mapping out all options.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #118 on: May 07, 2019, 07:33:43 pm »

I sort of shot from the hip there

I feel stronger about my last line than the first; if we do a mass volunteer-not volunteer claim, Baudelaires need need need to not claim Volunteer, and I was willing to out myself to get that out there

I understand if people don't want to do the claim, even other Volunteers, but if you're willing to trust someone coming from the "is a volunteer" perspective, it could be very good

Also vote: ash, not in character to be so against a crazy claiming plan
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #119 on: May 07, 2019, 09:06:32 pm »

Your strong suit is being town, acting town, making everyone believe you're town, actually turn out to be town (very important, you'll do this here, right?) and, most importantly, annoying me to god knows where. That last one lost me the game last time we played! It's pretty useful, even if I wish it didn't happen :P

Town, town, towny, town. But if you’re town, then my towniness shouldn’t be annoying. Perhaps you could even find it amusing. I have zero ability to lie convincingly (this is why Debatepro and I can’t play together. He suffers from the same condition.) Besides, games with me have way more extra information about people IRL. For example, Awaclus is way more charming to me than he sometimes is to others because he answers all of my silly questions (tarantulas!) and now could one day have kids named Tiger and Boots.

Also, I do make really good cake.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #120 on: May 07, 2019, 09:15:48 pm »

Also, my middle name is Olaf.  But don't lynch me, ok?
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #121 on: May 07, 2019, 09:18:49 pm »

Also, if I were to attempt to guess the set up -

3 Children
3 Arsonists
3 VFD
1 Olaf SK
3 VTs (or some random town PR)

The setup post specifically says "the other four town players". Also, I would be surprised if they were all just VTs.
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raerae

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #122 on: May 07, 2019, 09:19:40 pm »

Also, my middle name is Olaf.  But don't lynch me, ok?

We watched that whole damn series.  I'm married to you.  We considering including that name in our child's name.  It took me until now to realize the correlation.  I am ashamed.
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #123 on: May 07, 2019, 09:24:18 pm »

Well that is a sequence of five of interesting facts.
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raerae

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #124 on: May 07, 2019, 09:27:34 pm »

Well that is a sequence of five of interesting facts.

It's funny how I don't even know you.

But, game talk real quick, you a solid yea or a nay on the claim game?  Or you feeling wishy washy today?
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