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Author Topic: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Game Over: Town wins)  (Read 147328 times)

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Awaclus

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #75 on: May 07, 2019, 02:39:49 pm »

Picture this: suppose 2 of each side claim VFD while the other claims non-VFD. For both of them, they see 5 non-VFD out of 4 and 5 VFD out of 3 that aren't part of their team. Ergo, there must be 1 of the other team in the non-VFD side and 2 of the other team in the VFD side. Thus, they know where each other are in the split. This is obviously true for other claim scenarios.

Oh, I misunderstood what you meant.

tl;dr: everyone claiming volunteer status strongly benefit scum

I don't think this is true. Saying that it makes the probability of hitting Baudelaire go up from 33% to 40% is fallacious because that only works for the first Baudelaire they're trying to kill and only the last remaining Baudelaire makes a difference.

Vote: faust, incredible plan here. The only problem is scum!faust probably doesn't do this, my read here is that faust has a PR that wants this, and that makes a little bit more sense as scum.

Vote: MiX
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #76 on: May 07, 2019, 03:00:34 pm »

Actually,

Volunteers should claim.

I am a Volunteer.

Baudelaires should not, under any circumstances, claim Volunteer.
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #77 on: May 07, 2019, 03:10:48 pm »

Actually,

Volunteers should claim.

I am a Volunteer.

Baudelaires should not, under any circumstances, claim Volunteer.


Well, this is an interesting turn of events but I'm fine with it (and not a Volunteer).
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #78 on: May 07, 2019, 03:15:10 pm »

Actually,

Volunteers should claim.

I am a Volunteer.

Baudelaires should not, under any circumstances, claim Volunteer.


Interesting. I am not a Volunteer.

We'll get a bunch of ICs this way...plus I really hope ADK has a plan after this.
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #79 on: May 07, 2019, 03:35:15 pm »

Actually,

Volunteers should claim.

I am a Volunteer.

Baudelaires should not, under any circumstances, claim Volunteer.


What is interesting is that two people have already gone along with this plan
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #80 on: May 07, 2019, 03:36:04 pm »

Also, I only just read the setup after skimming the thread and seeing all sorts of plans thrown around, so I am clearly town
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #81 on: May 07, 2019, 03:36:51 pm »

And I do understand enthusiasm for claiming, I just don't really know that it is the best thing to do here
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #82 on: May 07, 2019, 03:39:53 pm »

I will call Awaclus scum for following along with it

Vote: Awaclus

ADK can be town for being so convincing so fast

And I don't know what to make of MiX. RMM52 is making me doubt everything I every knew
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #83 on: May 07, 2019, 03:42:14 pm »

Well ADK practically claimed to have a PR about Volunteers...

There's also another angle: if we have absolute certainty that Baudelaires will claim town, it will either make all Volunteers IC (unlikely) or lock scum into claiming Volunteers, which is, at worst, better PoE than the other plan. There's also the fact scum won't kill the Volunteers (they're busy looking for Baudelaires) which means there's 3 good PRs that are safe from NKs. Overall it's a good deal, one that should be sweetened with whatever ADK has.

And I don't know what to make of MiX. RMM52 is making me doubt everything I every knew

Hehe, I'm glad I made you doubt everything! Although I'm not SK here so those tells won't work.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #84 on: May 07, 2019, 03:42:56 pm »

Why is raerae not here? :(
She's been busy playing with bears.
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #85 on: May 07, 2019, 03:44:26 pm »

So here's a hot take: Faust, for suggesting the idea, could be Scum, maybe Baudelaire. I don't think he'd suggest the idea if he were otherwise.
I think that's a pretty cold take.  And one I disagree with.
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #86 on: May 07, 2019, 03:44:43 pm »

Why is raerae not here? :(
She's been busy playing with bears.

Teddy, grizzly, brown, polar, .....?
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shraeye

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #87 on: May 07, 2019, 03:49:04 pm »

Well ADK practically claimed to have a PR about Volunteers...
Do you mean when he said "I am a volunteer"???

Or do you mean in one of his earlier posts?

Because you're either saying something totally obvious and useless.  Or totally wrong.
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #88 on: May 07, 2019, 03:51:41 pm »

Well, why else would he say that plan in such a bossy way? I could be wrong, but...eh. He definitely seems to benefit from it in a special way, otherwise he could simply talk about it instead of commanding it.

Right, ADK?
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #89 on: May 07, 2019, 03:53:08 pm »

Right, ADK?

Er, nevermind, if you didn't say this before you shouldn't answer this now.
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #90 on: May 07, 2019, 03:55:14 pm »

I will call Awaclus scum for following along with it

Vote: Awaclus

I was already advocating for a similar plan. ADK changed the proposal a little but it aligned with my agenda enough that I was willing to get behind it.

Right, ADK?

Er, nevermind, if you didn't say this before you shouldn't answer this now.

Good advice, he probably doesn't realize that on his own.
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MiX

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #91 on: May 07, 2019, 03:56:41 pm »

Right, ADK?

Er, nevermind, if you didn't say this before you shouldn't answer this now.

Good advice, he probably doesn't realize that on his own.

Did you ever believe, when writting this, that I, or anyone else, would miss the sarcasm?
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #92 on: May 07, 2019, 03:59:04 pm »

Did you ever believe, when writting this, that I, or anyone else, would miss the sarcasm?

No.
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #93 on: May 07, 2019, 03:59:42 pm »

And yeah, not a huge fan of claiming thinking about it.

3 scum. Perfect game we lynch all 3 and live happily ever after. Most unlikely.

If the B's (not trying to spell Baudelaires on my phone) don't claim volunteer, scum get a pool of 7 people to kill from (the three B's and 4 others)

I have to think that scum have some sort of way to narrow that even further as nights progress. Like maybe some sort of B/non-B investigative role.

Which means, if we claim V/non-V, our last day could very well be D4. Especially if we mislynch.

10 to lynch from, B's claim so we don't lynch them, but then immediately die (I assume)

Worst case lynching with best luck at night:
Mislynch, non-B dies
11 alive (3 V, 3 scum, 3 B, 2 other)
Mislynch, non-B dies
9 alive (3 V, 3 scum, 3 B)

Then we just lynch scum I guess. That's not so bad actually

Maybe I just converted to "claim"

I want more people to look at it though

I also did not do anything with scum claiming volunteer, which is likely to happen I would think after my stream of conscious numbers running
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raerae

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #94 on: May 07, 2019, 03:59:59 pm »

I’m a she, in central time, I believe animals should have human names so there is some ambiguity when speaking about loved ones, children, and cats....Scott, Brad, Jeremy, Declan...who can tell which us which?!?
Alternatively, you could give your children animal names!

He has a point, Didds.
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #95 on: May 07, 2019, 04:01:26 pm »

I will call Awaclus scum for following along with it

Vote: Awaclus

I was already advocating for a similar plan. ADK changed the proposal a little but it aligned with my agenda enough that I was willing to get behind it.

Right, ADK?

Er, nevermind, if you didn't say this before you shouldn't answer this now.

Good advice, he probably doesn't realize that on his own.

Yeah, and now that I look at it a little more closely myself I may be convinced

Vote: pubby for now
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #96 on: May 07, 2019, 04:05:32 pm »

I guess I'm confused. If scum fakes their role and the Baudelaires fake their role too, then that's 6 fake claims to 7 genuine ones. Is that actually helpful?

Welcome, pubby. What are your preferred pronouns? What’s your time zone? Anything else we should know?
Hi WestCoastDidds. I'm a he in central US time.

Town should never fake anything as a rule. That includes the B's in my opinion
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raerae

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #97 on: May 07, 2019, 04:05:38 pm »

Why is raerae not here? :(
She's been busy playing with bears.

Teddy, grizzly, brown, polar, .....?

Brown, about three years old I think.
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raerae

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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #98 on: May 07, 2019, 04:10:25 pm »

I'm not down with claiming, narrows the pool too much. Unless somebody can succinctly explain how the benefits outweigh the drawbacks I ain't sayin' nothin'.
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Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #99 on: May 07, 2019, 04:12:53 pm »

There's also another angle: if we have absolute certainty that Baudelaires will claim town, it will either make all Volunteers IC (unlikely) or lock scum into claiming Volunteers, which is, at worst, better PoE than the other plan. There's also the fact scum won't kill the Volunteers (they're busy looking for Baudelaires) which means there's 3 good PRs that are safe from NKs. Overall it's a good deal, one that should be sweetened with whatever ADK has.
There is a bunch of speculation in this post that doesn't seem to have any basis. Especially framing the fact that we push the night kill away from people who are not Baudelaires as a good thing is ridiculous.
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