Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 14 15 [16] 17 18 ... 51  All

Author Topic: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Game Over: Town wins)  (Read 147555 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

raerae

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 96
  • Shuffle iT Username: raerae
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #375 on: May 11, 2019, 06:59:41 pm »

Where'd mcmc go?


See below

Also, day drinking commencing in one, two...

But in past tense

Understandable absence then. Acceptable.

But, since you're here... Thoughts, feelings, comments, and concerns?
Logged

mcmcsalot

  • Explorer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 338
  • Shuffle iT Username: mcmcsalot
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #376 on: May 11, 2019, 08:18:11 pm »

I’m behind and celebrating Mother’s Day a day early. So I’m behind I should be able to catch up soon
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #377 on: May 11, 2019, 08:24:08 pm »

@ash

Maybe it's only fair I explain myself a little further, since this clearly isn't going to happen-

If we had gone through with the claiming, and any scum had fakeclaimed volunteer, the real volunteers would have been able to out them immediately.

Regarding the lynch: I like my vote where it is. Would lynch today: shraeye, raerae, WCD, ash

I think the “real volunteers can out the fake volunteers immediately” idea is basically just the usual claim/counterclaim thing, and not specific to the volunteer plan. Unless the town volunteers think they have some secret code that would allow them to out all three at once.  I don’t see how any single volunteer can out three (or even one) volunteer correctly. If you don’t know who the other two real volunteers are, how do you immediately find the three fake out of five, or two fake out of four, or one fake out of three?  You have to assume scum can safely fakeclaim here since they were in fact volunteers at some point in their flavor lives (I.e., their PMs make it possible or they got provided fake claims at the outset or requested them). If not, then fake claiming is less likely.

Or you are trying to unclearly say real volunteers have the ability to catch fake claimers built into their role?
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #378 on: May 11, 2019, 08:30:20 pm »



Would or should isn’t relevant to me, since it occurred. Mafia often execute plans that are not universally accepted as “good.”

If the scum team decided that drawing out claims to POE Masons was good play, I think they do it the way ADK did. I think he did it well, and I applaud the effort. If I was on his team, I’d know we made the right call on who to run it.

No, the answer to that question is 100% relevant.  To brush aside that question with "because mafia did it this time" is putting the cart 2 miles before the horse.

Saying "mafia did it this game" is arguing that they "would do it".  And that seems to be based on your analysis that says they "should do it".  But the link between should do and would do it not automatic.  If you aren't willing to fill in that gap, then you are literally jumping to conclusions.

No, the answer is 100% irrelevant. You know I can’t accurately answer that question unless I am scum, because I need all the facts regarding roles, etc. to make a value judgement on the plan. Since I’m not, I can’t.

If there was a scum plan to out volunteers, the way ADK played it is consistent with that plan. Considering the lack of much of anything else this game day, I think it’s a better place than most to lynch.
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

A Drowned Kernel

  • 2015 World Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1067
  • They/Them
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #379 on: May 11, 2019, 08:40:01 pm »

Unless the town volunteers think they have some secret code that would allow them to out all three at once.

At least one volunteer (me) thinks that.
Logged
The perfect engine
But it will never go off
Three piles are empty

mcmcsalot

  • Explorer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 338
  • Shuffle iT Username: mcmcsalot
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #380 on: May 11, 2019, 08:54:57 pm »

I’m on board with the vote: datswan very very gut read.
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3377
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #381 on: May 11, 2019, 09:22:58 pm »

I'm here and going straight to bed. No idea about DatSwan, I'd have to reread. But I still like the shraey.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

WestCoastDidds

  • Ambassador
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 33
  • Shuffle iT Username: WestCoastDidds
  • Didds, ya'll
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #382 on: May 11, 2019, 09:37:12 pm »

Where'd mcmc go?


See below

Also, day drinking commencing in one, two...

I knew there was a reason I liked you!
But in past tense
Logged
classic Diddsian meddling
I never got to read what Didds said, but whatever she's saying, she's right.

WestCoastDidds

  • Ambassador
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 33
  • Shuffle iT Username: WestCoastDidds
  • Didds, ya'll
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #383 on: May 11, 2019, 09:38:31 pm »

Where'd mcmc go?


See below

Also, day drinking commencing in one, two...

But in past tense

Rather, I knew there was a reason I liked you!

Quote fail is the cherry-infused gin talking. Who ever heard of such a thing?!?
Logged
classic Diddsian meddling
I never got to read what Didds said, but whatever she's saying, she's right.

shraeye

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 690
  • Shuffle iT Username: shraeye
  • More Graph Theory please
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #384 on: May 11, 2019, 09:39:56 pm »



Would or should isn’t relevant to me, since it occurred. Mafia often execute plans that are not universally accepted as “good.”

If the scum team decided that drawing out claims to POE Masons was good play, I think they do it the way ADK did. I think he did it well, and I applaud the effort. If I was on his team, I’d know we made the right call on who to run it.

No, the answer to that question is 100% relevant.  To brush aside that question with "because mafia did it this time" is putting the cart 2 miles before the horse.

Saying "mafia did it this game" is arguing that they "would do it".  And that seems to be based on your analysis that says they "should do it".  But the link between should do and would do it not automatic.  If you aren't willing to fill in that gap, then you are literally jumping to conclusions.

No, the answer is 100% irrelevant. You know I can’t accurately answer that question unless I am scum, because I need all the facts regarding roles, etc. to make a value judgement on the plan. Since I’m not, I can’t.
This is nonsense.  You can answer the question without being scum.  you're exaggerating the issue to avoid asking yourself the question you initially avoided asking yourself in the first place.

Tick through each player in this game.  WOULD they do this plan as scum?  That is the question I'm asking you and it doesn't require any g'dang thing to answer.
Logged

WestCoastDidds

  • Ambassador
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 33
  • Shuffle iT Username: WestCoastDidds
  • Didds, ya'll
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #385 on: May 11, 2019, 09:44:01 pm »

I have been tackled by the cherry gin. It is winning and I have lost. Not quite utterly, but pretty profoundly.

I’ll read Swowl on the morning. I’m an early birdy so I should have plenty ‘o time.

Logged
classic Diddsian meddling
I never got to read what Didds said, but whatever she's saying, she's right.

Glooble

  • Bishop
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 113
    • View Profile
    • Solutions to Problems
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #386 on: May 11, 2019, 09:50:27 pm »

Joth is traveling. I will be online at deadline to post the flip but it’s unlikely I’ll be able to do a vote count much beforehand.
Logged

I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

He/ Him

Check out my podcast: www.stppodcast.com

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #387 on: May 11, 2019, 09:53:33 pm »



Would or should isn’t relevant to me, since it occurred. Mafia often execute plans that are not universally accepted as “good.”

If the scum team decided that drawing out claims to POE Masons was good play, I think they do it the way ADK did. I think he did it well, and I applaud the effort. If I was on his team, I’d know we made the right call on who to run it.

No, the answer to that question is 100% relevant.  To brush aside that question with "because mafia did it this time" is putting the cart 2 miles before the horse.

Saying "mafia did it this game" is arguing that they "would do it".  And that seems to be based on your analysis that says they "should do it".  But the link between should do and would do it not automatic.  If you aren't willing to fill in that gap, then you are literally jumping to conclusions.

No, the answer is 100% irrelevant. You know I can’t accurately answer that question unless I am scum, because I need all the facts regarding roles, etc. to make a value judgement on the plan. Since I’m not, I can’t.
This is nonsense.  You can answer the question without being scum.  you're exaggerating the issue to avoid asking yourself the question you initially avoided asking yourself in the first place.

Tick through each player in this game.  WOULD they do this plan as scum?  That is the question I'm asking you and it doesn't require any g'dang thing to answer.

A vast majority of scum groupings made from this player list would at least discuss it. I think a good third would do it. I think there is a small number of players that would be against it out of fear (newish players), conservatism, or arrogance (you can guess who I think this applies to).
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #388 on: May 11, 2019, 09:54:32 pm »

Unless the town volunteers think they have some secret code that would allow them to out all three at once.

At least one volunteer (me) thinks that.

Interesting point. Don’t explain, please.
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

raerae

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 96
  • Shuffle iT Username: raerae
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #389 on: May 11, 2019, 09:58:01 pm »

Unless the town volunteers think they have some secret code that would allow them to out all three at once.

At least one volunteer (me) thinks that.

Interesting point. Don’t explain, please.

Can't tell if you're being sarcastic and fishing or sincere and requesting...
Logged

raerae

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 96
  • Shuffle iT Username: raerae
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #390 on: May 11, 2019, 10:03:38 pm »



Would or should isn’t relevant to me, since it occurred. Mafia often execute plans that are not universally accepted as “good.”

If the scum team decided that drawing out claims to POE Masons was good play, I think they do it the way ADK did. I think he did it well, and I applaud the effort. If I was on his team, I’d know we made the right call on who to run it.

No, the answer to that question is 100% relevant.  To brush aside that question with "because mafia did it this time" is putting the cart 2 miles before the horse.

Saying "mafia did it this game" is arguing that they "would do it".  And that seems to be based on your analysis that says they "should do it".  But the link between should do and would do it not automatic.  If you aren't willing to fill in that gap, then you are literally jumping to conclusions.

No, the answer is 100% irrelevant. You know I can’t accurately answer that question unless I am scum, because I need all the facts regarding roles, etc. to make a value judgement on the plan. Since I’m not, I can’t.
This is nonsense.  You can answer the question without being scum.  you're exaggerating the issue to avoid asking yourself the question you initially avoided asking yourself in the first place.

Tick through each player in this game.  WOULD they do this plan as scum?  That is the question I'm asking you and it doesn't require any g'dang thing to answer.

A vast majority of scum groupings made from this player list would at least discuss it. I think a good third would do it. I think there is a small number of players that would be against it out of fear (newish players), conservatism, or arrogance (you can guess who I think this applies to).

But you're neglecting the fact that he gave addition information regarding his role, nobody's countered, and you seem to be the only one who legitimately thinks he's scum for the claim.
Logged

Uncleeurope

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #391 on: May 11, 2019, 11:23:34 pm »

Vote: Shraeye

We are dangerously close to a no lynch here, just be aware, people, and pay attention.

I won’t be around for deadline, most likely. Unless I get hit with insomnia randomly.
Logged
Don't worry, no one can read uncle correctly.

Uncleeurope Eddie

shraeye

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 690
  • Shuffle iT Username: shraeye
  • More Graph Theory please
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #392 on: May 11, 2019, 11:45:04 pm »

Since No lynch is exactly what we need right now, I don't see what's so "dangerous" about it.

Alternatively, you could be aware of the status of everybody's reads right now (half-baked would be optimistic), pay attention to the arguments I'm making about why we need a no-lynch, and accept it.
Logged

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #393 on: May 11, 2019, 11:46:01 pm »

I apologize for my absence. It has been just... a crazy week. Super needy students (or more specifically parents).

1) Swan Votes - The double gut read vote on me is... strange. Considering, I have not done very much. Although, by that same logic, as no reason was given, I guess I cannot argue with them that much. But fwiw, I have just been very busy.

2) ADK Claiming VFD/Awaclus Promoting the Plan - My opinions during the discussion aside... I find it very unlikely that BOTH there person to bring up the plan, and the first person to claim, are both skum. Skum may want to promote the plan, but I do not think it likely they put themselves in that position.

3) ADK - I am pretty strong TR on ADK at this point. The post below screams to me "Hey! I am really VFD! I know something that I think the other VFD's know".
Unless the town volunteers think they have some secret code that would allow them to out all three at once.

At least one volunteer (me) thinks that.
I do not think I am outing ADK for anything that matters (since they already claimed VFD)... But if I were to guess, I would guess that they were given a piece of info about the set up, and they assume the other VFDs either got the same or similar pieces of information. This would be a very odd way for them to put their neck out there if they were in fact skum.


4) Awaclus - Based a lot on my TR of ADK, I am inclined to believe Awaclus is telling the truth about their role. Now, as this is a closed RMM... yeah he could be skum. But also, I do not think it is the best place to look for skum right now. They have said that they can verify their role down the road. I would say we wait on this one and put that to the test later in the game. If they are town, it sounds like the combo of info between what ADK and what potential Town!Awaclus are suggesting could be very valuable.


5) Ashes - I am the absolute nut low at reading Ash. And I am completely torn here... which doesn't really help. I do not get the wagon attempts on them though. I mean I get the whole "where is Ash with the game break plan" concept... but also the very beginning of the game was kind of already at that point. So I suppose FoS at the people pushing for Ashes.


6) MiX - This one is strange to me. For the amount of scrutiny that ADK got for claiming to be VFD right away... there was very little cast upon MiX for claiming NOT VFD. If there were a duo in the triple of Awaclus/ADK/MiX, the most likely is surely Awaclus!MiX based on Awaclus claim of targeting non-VFD and MiX then claiming VFD. It was also the second claim (like right away), so that was promoting people to jump on board and claim either VFD or Not VFD. Claiming in any way would benefit (to our knowledge at this point) both Skum and Awaclus. So either, it helps just skum... or it helps skum and Town!Awaclus. Either way - promoting the claim, while removing themselves from the VFD pool, could be a solid play from Skum!MiX.



TLDR; I am down for MiX or Awaclus. Leaning on MiX.


Vote: MiX

PPE the post from Eddie that is making me check how close we actually are to DL.
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #394 on: May 11, 2019, 11:53:08 pm »

ok so it is like really soon.
8:53am on May 12th FT to be exact.

Can I get any love for the Mix wagon?
I am pretty much a no go for ADK or Awaclus today.

No lynch, is as it always is, a horrible idea. The argument that "no one has a solid skum read" is the absolute most nonsense I have ever heard. It is D1 in a 13 player game. The upside of NOT lynching town today is heavily... heavily outweighed by the info gained from the D1 lynch. There are never any "solid skum reads" on day 1. Not even if you think you have a good read, get that player lynched, and are correct and they flip skum.... it still wasn't solid. It was based on no info, no VCA... nothing. Just player meta from previous games. Which of course, can be manipulated.
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #395 on: May 12, 2019, 12:00:10 am »

I will be around for 2 hours, then gone for two hours, then around for an hour (last hour here is 4-5 hours or so before DL).
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

shraeye

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 690
  • Shuffle iT Username: shraeye
  • More Graph Theory please
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #396 on: May 12, 2019, 12:00:38 am »

ok so it is like really soon.
8:53am on May 12th FT to be exact.

Can I get any love for the Mix wagon?
I am pretty much a no go for ADK or Awaclus today.

No lynch, is as it always is, a horrible idea. The argument that "no one has a solid skum read" is the absolute most nonsense I have ever heard. It is D1 in a 13 player game. The upside of NOT lynching town today is heavily... heavily outweighed by the info gained from the D1 lynch. There are never any "solid skum reads" on day 1. Not even if you think you have a good read, get that player lynched, and are correct and they flip skum.... it still wasn't solid. It was based on no info, no VCA... nothing. Just player meta from previous games. Which of course, can be manipulated.

The "info gained" today is heavily outweighed by ALL THE REASONS I HAVE LISTED.  Take your "info gained" mantra and lock it back in it's box, dude.  This is Role Madness, joth style.  Let me catch you up to speed on what happened last joth-mod RMM.  The always-lynch-squad shot down an IC for the sake of  GHAAINNNING INPHOOOO!!

I'm not asking for a bulletproof case.  There literally aren't any cases.  People are just now catching up; it is not realistic to think that we can have everybody up to speed, a sensible discussion, a high-success-lynch in the next 9 hours when more than 60% of the players will be asleep for more than 60% of that time. 

It is too late; it is no-lynch time.
Logged

shraeye

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 690
  • Shuffle iT Username: shraeye
  • More Graph Theory please
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #397 on: May 12, 2019, 12:01:26 am »

i'm going to sleep.  Y'all sort this out.
Logged

A Drowned Kernel

  • 2015 World Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1067
  • They/Them
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #398 on: May 12, 2019, 12:11:12 am »

There's very few lynches I actually like at this point. No Lynch might actually be the way to go.

But of any Lynch, I think the best bet is

vote: eddie

So I'll put my vote there. Might be best to let things just go to deadline though.
Logged
The perfect engine
But it will never go off
Three piles are empty

Uncleeurope

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3
    • View Profile
Re: RMM53: A Series of Unfortunate Nightkills (Day 1)
« Reply #399 on: May 12, 2019, 12:12:05 am »

Since No lynch is exactly what we need right now, I don't see what's so "dangerous" about it.

Alternatively, you could be aware of the status of everybody's reads right now (half-baked would be optimistic), pay attention to the arguments I'm making about why we need a no-lynch, and accept it.

Ah, yes, since you made a post explaining no-lynch I should be agreeing with it, my mistake, I forgot the system.
Logged
Don't worry, no one can read uncle correctly.

Uncleeurope Eddie
Pages: 1 ... 14 15 [16] 17 18 ... 51  All
 

Page created in 0.062 seconds with 19 queries.