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Is Mint - Fool's Gold actually that good?

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Commodore Chuckles:
Game #24778435. I opened Mint - Fool's Gold, he opened Hermit - Talisman. I didn't collide the Mint with FG once and spent the rest of the game flailing around trying to trash stuff, while he easily got rid of his Shelters and picked up FGs.

I know I had bad luck and that Hermit happens to be a particularly devastating counter, but this game still brought to light some problems with Mint - FG. You're left tripping over 3 dead cards in a small deck, and still have to get the important trasher you didn't get before the first shuffle.

hhelibebcnofnena:
Just providing some probabilities:

The chances that you don't collide Mint and Fool's Gold on turn 3 or 4, assuming you buy nothing turn 3, are
5/7*2/7*2*2/5 which is around 16.3%.
So that'll happen once every 6 or 7 times.

If you factor in the fact that if you get turn 3 FG you can guarantee to buy another FG, you can decrease the chance of a non-collision turn 4 because of the reshuffle, but I was too lazy to factor that in. If I did, it might go down to once every 7 or 8 times, but I don't know.
Also, this is just the chance for T3/T4.

Chris is me:
It was for a time one of the best openings you could get. It's still pretty decent now, honestly, you can build into a lot out of it pretty quickly. It's just rare, and the Fools Good rush to Provinces isn't so good these days, so it's best as like a first step into a thin engine with cheap payload.

crj:
If you open Fools Gold and Mint, then buy a trasher on T3, you're 50% likely to see that trasher on T4, compared with 83% likely to see it on T3/T4 if you open with that trasher and something else.

Given the head start of already having trashed five cards, that feels like a good tradeoff?

hhelibebcnofnena:

--- Quote from: crj on March 21, 2019, 08:28:06 am ---If you open Fools Gold and Mint, then buy a trasher on T3, you're 50% likely to see that trasher on T4, compared with 83% likely to see it on T3/T4 if you open with that trasher and something else.

Given the head start of already having trashed five cards, that feels like a good tradeoff?

--- End quote ---

If either of your coppers or your Fool's Gold is in the last two cards of the shuffle, you can't get a T3 Hermit, because you only have $3 total in your deck. I don't think there is a high chance of being able to get a T3 Hermit, although I can't do the calculation because I'm not familiar enough with Bayes' theorem, which I'm pretty sure applies here since we know Hermit-FG didn't collide.

Also, it's not likely that there was a $2 trasher or pseudo-trasher in the kingdom because those aren't very common. (I'd say maybe 4 or 5 total from all the expansions?)

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