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Author Topic: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (GAME OVER, Maquis win!)  (Read 47732 times)

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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2575 on: April 01, 2019, 01:22:36 pm »

By the way, SK has full(!) bulletproof, so MQ targetting him isn't very useful (gives them information I guess?).

So, the only way to off the SK is to lynch him?

Indeed.
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2576 on: April 01, 2019, 03:12:55 pm »

Space, if we lunch today, who are you're top two candidates?

I want to work out who I think is most likely to be the SK, and then push for that. I haven't worked out who it is yet.

I think the two Maquis players should claim, so I can remove them from my lynchpool for today :-)

Can you give me the dumbed down version of the math on why a SK kill today gets town further than a MQ kill? 
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2577 on: April 01, 2019, 03:17:25 pm »

Didds, who are your top two?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2578 on: April 01, 2019, 03:54:24 pm »

I think I'm convinced that NL is more or less unwinnable for town, but quite good for Maquis.

I agree with this, which is also my argument against lynching Dax regardless of alignment.

I mean, I think we can all agree that scum lynch>no lynch>mislynch.

The point of my theorizing is we can fully control only one of those things.
This is equally true literally every day, it's still not an argument for No Lynch being preferable.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2579 on: April 01, 2019, 03:55:36 pm »

I don't fully understand why he didn't target anyone last night for a chance to be able to confirm to himself, WCD and Ash that this is the case.

It wasn't a strategic decision.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2580 on: April 01, 2019, 03:59:50 pm »

Posting what appears to be clearly incorrect information as cold, hard facts (as I believe heís been doing all game) is at best unhelpful and at worst misleading to the point of detrimental action being taken. If the latter is on purpose, it is coming from scum.

Here is where raerae should mention heís been all but impossible to lynch this game, which continues to be a scum tell.

This.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2581 on: April 01, 2019, 04:01:02 pm »



"Admiral Ross, we need you to send us some reinforcements. I'm down to one enlistedman as my entire senior staff," Dax says, talking to the Admiral over subspace. "Miles is used to doing 10 jobs, but this is beyond even his abilities. I'm considering drafting some civilians to cover other duties."


No recruitments, O'Brien needs to be field promoted to Captain!
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2582 on: April 01, 2019, 04:03:27 pm »

I think I'm convinced that NL is more or less unwinnable for town, but quite good for Maquis.

I agree with this, which is also my argument against lynching Dax regardless of alignment.

I don't believe town immediatly loses with a no lynch: the only problem seems to be that we enter next day in a strictly worse position, however, if we think Didds is scum, breaking the deathproof is enough of an upside that makes it worth it. Note how SK can't NK if we no lynch, which means the kills don't advance as much as Maquis would love.

Also taking the opportunity to say I made a list with all the possible starts for D6 (which is to say, all lynches and NKs), what's left is some PR analysis, still debating if I should put it in or not.

Posting what appears to be clearly incorrect information as cold, hard facts (as I believe heís been doing all game) is at best unhelpful and at worst misleading to the point of detrimental action being taken. If the latter is on purpose, it is coming from scum.

Here is where raerae should mention heís been all but impossible to lynch this game, which continues to be a scum tell.

This.

Wrong. And I was hard to lynch because all Maquis were on me (check the end of D2). But you're both scum, so meh, I'm not going to convince you, am I?

"Admiral Ross, we need you to send us some reinforcements. I'm down to one enlistedman as my entire senior staff," Dax says, talking to the Admiral over subspace. "Miles is used to doing 10 jobs, but this is beyond even his abilities. I'm considering drafting some civilians to cover other duties."

No recruitments, O'Brien needs to be field promoted to Captain!

I wish I could comment on flavor :(
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2583 on: April 01, 2019, 04:04:21 pm »

Really need to find the time to reread some stuff, not happening this afternoon sadly.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2584 on: April 01, 2019, 04:06:41 pm »

Posting what appears to be clearly incorrect information as cold, hard facts (as I believe heís been doing all game) is at best unhelpful and at worst misleading to the point of detrimental action being taken. If the latter is on purpose, it is coming from scum.

Here is where raerae should mention heís been all but impossible to lynch this game, which continues to be a scum tell.

This.

Wrong. And I was hard to lynch because all Maquis were on me (check the end of D2). But you're both scum, so meh, I'm not going to convince you, am I?

Good job responding to the part of it that I wasn't really talking about. Why can't SK NK if we No Lynch again?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2585 on: April 01, 2019, 04:08:56 pm »

I think I'm convinced that NL is more or less unwinnable for town, but quite good for Maquis.

I agree with this, which is also my argument against lynching Dax regardless of alignment.

I don't believe town immediatly loses with a no lynch: the only problem seems to be that we enter next day in a strictly worse position, however, if we think Didds is scum, breaking the deathproof is enough of an upside that makes it worth it. Note how SK can't NK if we no lynch, which means the kills don't advance as much as Maquis would love.

Also taking the opportunity to say I made a list with all the possible starts for D6 (which is to say, all lynches and NKs), what's left is some PR analysis, still debating if I should put it in or not.

Posting what appears to be clearly incorrect information as cold, hard facts (as I believe heís been doing all game) is at best unhelpful and at worst misleading to the point of detrimental action being taken. If the latter is on purpose, it is coming from scum.

Here is where raerae should mention heís been all but impossible to lynch this game, which continues to be a scum tell.

This.

Wrong. And I was hard to lynch because all Maquis were on me (check the end of D2). But you're both scum, so meh, I'm not going to convince you, am I?

"Admiral Ross, we need you to send us some reinforcements. I'm down to one enlistedman as my entire senior staff," Dax says, talking to the Admiral over subspace. "Miles is used to doing 10 jobs, but this is beyond even his abilities. I'm considering drafting some civilians to cover other duties."

No recruitments, O'Brien needs to be field promoted to Captain!

I wish I could comment on flavor :(

You keep saying a NL is so obviously the wrong choice but I have yet to see you back that up.  Like I said, we're guaranteed 4 going into tomorrow if we NL, we're guaranteed 3 if we lynch.  Nobody has countered that.  So, tell me how it's worse.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 2)
« Reply #2586 on: April 01, 2019, 04:43:21 pm »

So here's that list that was a mess to make here because I can't copy things from elsewhere. Behold!

Mislynch (2v2v1):

- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills nothing:  2v2v1, Neutral/Maquis favoured

- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills town:  1v2v1, Maquis favoured

- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills MQ:  2v1v1, Neutral

- MQ kills town, SK kills nothing:  1v2v1, Maquis favoured

- MQ kills town, SK kills town:  0v2v1, Maquis win

- MQ kills town, SK kills MQ:  1v1v1, SK win

MQ lynch (3v1v1):

- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills nothing: 3v1v1, Town favoured

- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills town:  2v1v1, Neutral

- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills MQ:  3v0v1, Town (heavily) favoured

- MQ kills town, SK kills nothing:  2v1v1, Neutral

- MQ kills town, SK kills town:  1v1v1, SK win

- MQ kills town, SK kills MQ:  2v0v1, Town favoured

SK lynch (3v2v0):

- MQ kills town:  2v2, Maquis win

No Lynch (3v2v1):

- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills nothing: 3v2v1, Current situation (ignoring this)

- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills town:  2v2v1, Neutral/Maquis favoured

- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills MQ:  3v1v1, Town favoured

- MQ kills town, SK kills nothing:  2v2v1, Neutral/Maquis favoured

- MQ kills town, SK kills town:  1v2v1, Maquis favoured

- MQ kills town, SK kills MQ:  2v1v1, Neutral


What a mess. And this is without PRs! I don't think I have the courage to make a PR version of this... So, let's see what we can take from this:

- If we mislynch, SK aims for MQ (although he can miss) and MQ either do nothing or try to hope SK hits town. Overall, we'll probably reach 2v1v1, but if MQ NKs town loses, so it's a bit risky.

- If we lynch MQ, SK always has an incentive to NK town, thus MQ doesn't really want to NK here, So we'll almost always go to 2v1v1, which is what I fully expect will indeed happen.

- Note how we'll reach the same scenario with a MQ lynch and a Mislynch. This is actually something I've been underplaying, but it's truer than I thought. Obviously, MQ lynch is better overall (because SK can miss NKing MQ but if they miss NKing town we basically win) but this isn't really MyLo, to answer ash's earlier question.

- If we lynch SK, we need PRs to save us. I didn't put the "MQ kills nothing" event because they would never choose it, but it's possible. With the Didds claim, I don't think this will ever be the correct move, however we don't need to go all out and say no killing SK today, because even with the Dax claim, there's only 1/2 chance of MQ killing non-commuter if they're not commuter themselves, which aren't bad odds...if you don't consider that the chances commuter's town, which is 50%, so overall we have 25% chances of winning here. Just having done this math, it seems...bad, actually. I might remove Space from the lynch table for this reason. (Disclaimer: the probabilities above aren't accurate with everything we know about this game, I just don't think it matters much)

- If we no lynch, MQ always want to NK whereas SK only wants to NK MQ. So, we'll probably enter 2v2v1, or one of (1v2v1/2v1v1) if SK is feeling risky. This seems worse than the 2v1v1 scenario of lynching MQ.

- PRs only make scum have to pick "nothing" for their kill, which is bad if we would rather have, say, a kill. Obviously they're almost always good.


With the above scenarios and conclusions, I...er...conclude that NL is strictly worse than MQ lynch. All the neutral scenarios are some that highly depend on PRs and the mindgames scum want to play, which for obviously reasons won't say here, but they're situations that shouldn't benefit any party (and allow for town to win).

That is my reasoning behind lynching today. Any questions?
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 2)
« Reply #2587 on: April 01, 2019, 04:53:08 pm »


- If we mislynch, SK aims for MQ (although he can miss) and MQ either do nothing or try to hope SK hits town. Overall, we'll probably reach 2v1v1, but if MQ NKs town loses, so it's a bit risky.

- If we lynch MQ, SK always has an incentive to NK town, thus MQ doesn't really want to NK here, So we'll almost always go to 2v1v1, which is what I fully expect will indeed happen.

- Note how we'll reach the same scenario with a MQ lynch and a Mislynch. This is actually something I've been underplaying, but it's truer than I thought. Obviously, MQ lynch is better overall (because SK can miss NKing MQ but if they miss NKing town we basically win) but this isn't really MyLo, to answer ash's earlier question.

- If we lynch SK, we need PRs to save us. I didn't put the "MQ kills nothing" event because they would never choose it, but it's possible. With the Didds claim, I don't think this will ever be the correct move, however we don't need to go all out and say no killing SK today, because even with the Dax claim, there's only 1/2 chance of MQ killing non-commuter if they're not commuter themselves, which aren't bad odds...if you don't consider that the chances commuter's town, which is 50%, so overall we have 25% chances of winning here. Just having done this math, it seems...bad, actually. I might remove Space from the lynch table for this reason. (Disclaimer: the probabilities above aren't accurate with everything we know about this game, I just don't think it matters much)

- If we no lynch, MQ always want to NK whereas SK only wants to NK MQ. So, we'll probably enter 2v2v1, or one of (1v2v1/2v1v1) if SK is feeling risky. This seems worse than the 2v1v1 scenario of lynching MQ.

- PRs only make scum have to pick "nothing" for their kill, which is bad if we would rather have, say, a kill. Obviously they're almost always good.


With the above scenarios and conclusions, I...er...conclude that NL is strictly worse than MQ lynch. All the neutral scenarios are some that highly depend on PRs and the mindgames scum want to play, which for obviously reasons won't say here, but they're situations that shouldn't benefit any party (and allow for town to win).

That is my reasoning behind lynching today. Any questions?

Every question, in both mislynch and MQ lynch scenarios we end up in 2v1v1 according to your math.  In No Lynch we end up in 2v2v1 most likely, again, according to your own math.  And yet, No Lynch is strictly worse?  How can you stand by that when your own math doesn't?
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2588 on: April 01, 2019, 04:56:34 pm »

Is that a scumslip? Should I assume that's a scumslip? How is 1 more Maquis being alive not strictly worse for town? XvYvZ is X town, Y Maquis and Z SK, so no lynch essencially helps MQ while doing nothing for town. If you think it's better for town, say so, I think it's worse.
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2589 on: April 01, 2019, 04:59:08 pm »

Is that a scumslip? Should I assume that's a scumslip? How is 1 more Maquis being alive not strictly worse for town? XvYvZ is X town, Y Maquis and Z SK, so no lynch essencially helps MQ while doing nothing for town. If you think it's better for town, say so, I think it's worse.

What is "that"?  Point out my scumslip if you really want to go down this road.  I'm not going to allow anymore generic mud slinging.  If you've got a bone to pick with somebody, do it.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2590 on: April 01, 2019, 05:00:06 pm »

Is that a scumslip? Should I assume that's a scumslip? How is 1 more Maquis being alive not strictly worse for town? XvYvZ is X town, Y Maquis and Z SK, so no lynch essencially helps MQ while doing nothing for town. If you think it's better for town, say so, I think it's worse.

What is "that"?  Point out my scumslip if you really want to go down this road.  I'm not going to allow anymore generic mud slinging.  If you've got a bone to pick with somebody, do it.

I should really be more direct. Why do you think a 2v2v1 situation isn't strictly worse than a 2v1v1 situation?
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2591 on: April 01, 2019, 05:05:32 pm »

Is that a scumslip? Should I assume that's a scumslip? How is 1 more Maquis being alive not strictly worse for town? XvYvZ is X town, Y Maquis and Z SK, so no lynch essencially helps MQ while doing nothing for town. If you think it's better for town, say so, I think it's worse.

What is "that"?  Point out my scumslip if you really want to go down this road.  I'm not going to allow anymore generic mud slinging.  If you've got a bone to pick with somebody, do it.

I should really be more direct. Why do you think a 2v2v1 situation isn't strictly worse than a 2v1v1 situation?

Because I was thinking your middle number was your town number. 

But I have another question, you said you want to kill the SK today but your math indicates that'll lead to a MQ win.  Was that a scumslip?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2592 on: April 01, 2019, 05:12:36 pm »

Is that a scumslip? Should I assume that's a scumslip? How is 1 more Maquis being alive not strictly worse for town? XvYvZ is X town, Y Maquis and Z SK, so no lynch essencially helps MQ while doing nothing for town. If you think it's better for town, say so, I think it's worse.

What is "that"?  Point out my scumslip if you really want to go down this road.  I'm not going to allow anymore generic mud slinging.  If you've got a bone to pick with somebody, do it.

I should really be more direct. Why do you think a 2v2v1 situation isn't strictly worse than a 2v1v1 situation?

Because I was thinking your middle number was your town number. 

But I have another question, you said you want to kill the SK today but your math indicates that'll lead to a MQ win.  Was that a scumslip?

Oh. Huh, although I said that in my original reply to your question, I never thought you could be confused. I should've been clearer.

I thought the chances of winning after lynching SK were higher, I underestimated Didds' claims and the fact that commuter can be scum. I don't want to lynch them anymore. In fact...it's worse than a mislynch. It's actually worse than a mislynch...I guess I was wrong. We can't lynch SK today.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2593 on: April 01, 2019, 05:19:53 pm »

2v1v1 is very likely a town loss. If SK is lynched, mafia kills non-Deathproof townie who has to be the commuter AND have their commute left. If mafia is lynched, SK does the same. If itís a mislynch, we probably ironically have the best chance if deathproof is still around.

Stop acting like 2v1v1 is our savior.  Itís just better than an immediate loss. 3v1v1 has to be the actual goal.

Iíd say 3v1v1 > 3v2v1 > 2v2v1> 3v2
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2594 on: April 01, 2019, 05:34:26 pm »

If we manage to do 3v1v1, I'll congratulate scum's inability to NK town. I think it's impossible to get there. 2v1v1 is the most likely outcome, which is why it's the best one.

2v2v1 is just worse...if we lynch MQ we'll be in the 2v1v1 situation all over again, and if we don't, Maquis wins.

2v1v1 is the best (that is likely to happen), because we essencially force 2v1 in the night, and if commuter and dax are still alive, it's a 1/2 chance of LyLo. Yeah, 1/2 chance of LyLo is our best shot.

We can't win 1v1v1, so obviously a mislynch on 2v1v1 is a town loss, remember SK has full(!) bulletproof.

If I were to make an order, it would go 3v0v1 > 2v0v1 > 3v1v1 > 2v1v1 > 3v2v1 > 2v2v1 > 1v2v1 for situations that town can win. I believe MQ lynch will put us from 3v2v1 to 2v1v1, which is an upgrade. Lynching MQ also allows the other 3 (that are better) to happen (and ONLY lynching MQ does this, because MQ will always NK if we no lynch), so I believe MQ lynch is strictly better than all the other options.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2595 on: April 01, 2019, 05:54:38 pm »

The long post from MiX was actually helpful. It demonstrates that no lynching is not advantageous to us. The big takeaway is that we need to lynch Maquis? Cool. although, I kind of feel like we (or at least some of us) have been trying to do that and failing over and over again.

I'm not going to vote for raerae today. Or Space, either, probably.  Snow is at the top of my current list, unless someone has a reason that the probabilities are wrong and all of MiX's posts have been misleading today. MiX feels more SK than Maquis to me, but that is entirely subjective and based on my sense that he doesn't seem like he has partners that he thinks about when posting or that he has engaged in any kind of QT discussion.

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2596 on: April 01, 2019, 05:59:08 pm »

I'm going to vote No Lynch unless somebody talks me out of it.  It guarantees 4 alive tomorrow, lynching today guarantees 3 alive tomorrow.  Somebody tell me why I'm wrong.  Not MiX, sorry, you've tried twice, I'm just not picking up what you're putting down.

I've just worked out that you're counting this in terms of players alive, but not really focusing on how many of them are townies.

There are three townies alive now, and three scums. We can only kill scums by lynching, (the SK can't be killed at all by the Maquis NK, and the SK has no incentive to kill off Maquis for us), so it's really bad to waste the chance to kill scum while we can. Otherwise we get to the point where scum are in the majority really fast. And while there are a few PRs that can help with it, not all of them are likely to be in town's hands.

If we no-lynch, the most likely outcome is that one or two of the three townies dies in the night, one single townie against three scums, or two townies against three scums at best. Is that really what you think we need to be aiming for, rather than having the same number of townies but fewer scums?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2597 on: April 01, 2019, 06:01:21 pm »

I'm not going to vote for raerae today. Or Space, either, probably.

It's good that you're probably not voting for me if you're aiming to strike Maquis: remember I'm EFHW-confirmed non-Maquis!
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2598 on: April 01, 2019, 06:06:01 pm »

The long post from MiX was actually helpful. It demonstrates that no lynching is not advantageous to us. The big takeaway is that we need to lynch Maquis? Cool. although, I kind of feel like we (or at least some of us) have been trying to do that and failing over and over again.

I'm not going to vote for raerae today. Or Space, either, probably.  Snow is at the top of my current list, unless someone has a reason that the probabilities are wrong and all of MiX's posts have been misleading today. MiX feels more SK than Maquis to me, but that is entirely subjective and based on my sense that he doesn't seem like he has partners that he thinks about when posting or that he has engaged in any kind of QT discussion.

You know, you're a sucker for long posts aren't you? I mean this in a cute way: last time I made a wall post (my D1 VCA) you townread me, now you're doing it again, I find it...charming, really. Everyone else: is this common? I don't remember this from briefly rereading Didds, but I was mostly focused around her voting pattern.

Are you definitely not voting for raerae, or just probably? I would love to refine my read on raerae with people I believe are town, which in this case is only you.

PPE 2: Yesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyes. Well, that's for the first post. The second post says "I'm SK", but I'm biased.
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I donít think even MiX is townreading MiX.

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2599 on: April 01, 2019, 06:57:01 pm »

I'm not going to vote for raerae today. Or Space, either, probably.

It's good that you're probably not voting for me if you're aiming to strike Maquis: remember I'm EFHW-confirmed non-Maquis!

Oh, yeah! This is why I all forgive almost all lapses in others.  The memory struggle is real.
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It's probably not townie mctownerson WCD.
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