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Author Topic: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (GAME OVER, Maquis win!)  (Read 47722 times)

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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2550 on: March 31, 2019, 05:09:26 pm »

But what would your read on Ash be, in that case?

And stop identifying not wanting to turbolynch Garak based on how you think they used their role with a Garak lynch being unthinkable. Don't strawman me, bro.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2551 on: March 31, 2019, 05:16:10 pm »

But what would your read on Ash be, in that case?

And stop identifying not wanting to turbolynch Garak based on how you think they used their role with a Garak lynch being unthinkable. Don't strawman me, bro.

Hmm, I read unthinkable lynch, not unthinking. Oops.

I would still think the scumteam's ash/Snow, but he would get relatively townier, from basicallyconf!scum to scummy. I'll need to do a detailed reread to see exactly how you three (ash/snow/raerae) interact...in fact I should be doing one now, but that'll have to be for tomorrow.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2552 on: March 31, 2019, 05:34:34 pm »

A couple of quick thoughts:

óput me in the ďSA doesnít ever forgetĒ camp.  The quicklynch was a deliberate move, and I think it comes from scum more than town. If SA is town and actually forgot, they know itís so far out of character that it may cost them the rest of this game and result in some post-game commiseration. Town does it too, but usually has a username that begins with A.

óMiX is mafia, not SK, if scum. He slipped and said ďteamsĒ within his last dozen or so posts, which is a scumslip for most at this point. The fact that he hasnít been lynched yet is also highly suspect.

óNK analysis (mostly why faust) is mildly interesting, and Iíd like to read some.

ómy goal today is to build up my ďwonít lynchĒ list and POE the best option. Currently, raerae and WCD are on it.

óUoS/SA, can either of you confirm for me that it is MYLO?  Or is there a case where we mislynch and still win?  I mean independent of scum actions at night. (As in, is there a strange case where a mislynch is better than a scum lynch?)
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2553 on: March 31, 2019, 06:13:16 pm »

We are definitely in a SK+Maquis scenario. This is known for certain to me, MiX and and raerae, because the three of us are the only ones left unchecked by UoS. I don't fully understand why he didn't target anyone last night for a chance to be able to confirm to himself, WCD and Ash that this is the case.

Given this fact, there are 60 possible game states in terms of which roles are in which factions (that's 20 ways to pick three town roles from a pool of six possible roles, and then for each combination, one of the remaining three non-towns is the SK).

I suspect some of these combinations are more winnable for town than others. For instance, having the deathproof, double-voter and commuter on our side really helps, especially if the loved scum could soak up the NK. I suspect we maximise our chances of winning if we give up on the ones that are the least winnable, and concentrate our efforts on winning in the scenarios where there's still a stronger chance.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2554 on: March 31, 2019, 06:24:11 pm »

Good post by ash, as are almost all of them. Shame that I think you're almost conf!scum. Reminder that you didn't answer my question of "are you Garak?" even with a "I'm not answering". Cmon, at least acknowledge it. I'll swear this is the last time I'm bringing this topic up, so I don't get dissapointed again.

óput me in the ďSA doesnít ever forgetĒ camp.  The quicklynch was a deliberate move, and I think it comes from scum more than town. If SA is town and actually forgot, they know itís so far out of character that it may cost them the rest of this game and result in some post-game commiseration. Town does it too, but usually has a username that begins with A.

I'm not sure in what universe Space would ever do that deliberately. It's so incredibly anti-town that...no, I can't see it. It serves no purpose, all it did was ruin town's chances of backpeddling into lynching Snow, something I was seriously considering there. It doesn't even give them town points! It's worthless! Thus the only logical conclusion is that Space actually forgot, something that...well, can happen. It was pretty late for them (advantages of being in the same timezone) so it's possible they just...forgot. But I understand why everyone thinks it's really uncharacteristic, because it is.

óMiX is mafia, not SK, if scum. He slipped and said ďteamsĒ within his last dozen or so posts, which is a scumslip for most at this point. The fact that he hasnít been lynched yet is also highly suspect.

Last time you said this, said person flipped town. I'm sorry if I don't believe you here, but really. To be honest, this is probably buried here, but with Uncle's flip I realized something: all of Maquis were on my wagon D2 (even if Snow moved to faust before shraeye and Didds hopped in). That's...interesting. I've been using it as a case for Didds!raerae not being likely (because Didds would've had to hop onto a wagon with 2 Maquis already on it at the same time shraeye hopped into it, sounds off for Didds); same for Didds!ash but I was already thinking it was unlikely, so now it's basically impossible. Anyway, I guess all Maquis wanted me dead, which is why my wagon never grew enough? Because they went on it early? Not sure how to approach this angle.

óNK analysis (mostly why faust) is mildly interesting, and Iíd like to read some.

faust died because he wasn't SK; EFHW died because she was Maquis cop and Garak was scum (probably Maquis). I believe SK killed faust and Maquis killed EFHW, that just makes the most sense. Not much else to say here.

ómy goal today is to build up my ďwonít lynchĒ list and POE the best option. Currently, raerae and WCD are on it.

Same here, but I'm not sure I can put raerae there anymore. It's almost in it, but if I limit myself too much I might tunnel into ash!snow too fast. Do you think it's Snow!MiX?

I suspect some of these combinations are more winnable for town than others. For instance, having the deathproof, double-voter and commuter on our side really helps, especially if the loved scum could soak up the NK. I suspect we maximise our chances of winning if we give up on the ones that are the least winnable, and concentrate our efforts on winning in the scenarios where there's still a stronger chance.

Space doing work here. I suppose I'll have to investigate these.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2555 on: March 31, 2019, 06:29:44 pm »

óput me in the ďSA doesnít ever forgetĒ camp.  The quicklynch was a deliberate move, and I think it comes from scum more than town. If SA is town and actually forgot, they know itís so far out of character that it may cost them the rest of this game and result in some post-game commiseration. Town does it too, but usually has a username that begins with A.

You're honestly wrong here, and I'll be able to do a rather subdued "I told you so" after the game once I've flipped and you've seen I'm town. Thursday was just too full a day for me (work was busy, I went to the gym at lunch for the first time in three weeks after my illness (just for a gentle pilates class, but still it was a good step!), and then I had games night at a friend's place and a chilly cycle ride home), and I really didn't have as much brain power available as I thought I did by the end of the day. It's actually funny that you say "SA doesn't ever forget", because I'm really forgetful IRL, but usually having notes in a text doc about what's going on saves me, though not so much in this case!


óUoS/SA, can either of you confirm for me that it is MYLO?

I think it's too hard to be sure because of things like commuters and double-voters and scum killing each other that might help us out.

Ah, actually, one thing to note: is it just me misreading the setup, or can the SK actually not be killed at night at all because of the "bulletproof" modifier? If so, I perhaps trying to lynch them today might be the only way to succeed, while we have enough Maquis left who're selfishly interested in making that work for their own wincon too, and while it also helps town reduce the number of deaths happening per night.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2556 on: March 31, 2019, 06:31:21 pm »

@Joth, could the thread header be changed to say "Day 5" please? Thanks!
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2557 on: March 31, 2019, 06:40:03 pm »

Here's a scenario where town still has a small chance of winning following a D5 mislynch. Does it seem plausible?

Town lynch D5 goes into N5 with 2 Maq, 1 SK and 2 town.
Best case for N5 is SK kills Maq and Maq targets SK, which won't kill the SK but will identify them to the team they threaten. We can even help this scenario by leaving me alive, because that reduces the pool that the SK is shooting at, since I'm known non-Maquis :-)

D6 starts with 1 Maq, 1 possibly-identified SK and 2 town. Maq and town all want to get the SK lynched, to the point where the Maqis player could even reveal themself because it's almost all down to the PR distribution at that point anyway.

N6 night starts with Maq and two town. If Maq succeeds in killing and doesn't leave a double-voter alive, then the Maqis faction wins, otherwise town wins.

Can the SK improve their chances by not killing a Maquis N5? That would start D6 with 2 Maquis, 1 SK and possibly 1 town, which looks like a sure town loss, but doesn't look any better for the SK. I guess it depends on what exactly motivates the SK most in their wincon.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2558 on: March 31, 2019, 06:52:08 pm »

Argh, I hate phone posting. Lost a response to SA just now.

Trying again...thanks for the note on forgetting. My belief of said note is based only on the fact that we are in the late stages of a mafia game, so hopefully no hard feelings either way. Plus, my doubt is based on my high opinion of your usual play!
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2559 on: March 31, 2019, 09:53:19 pm »

I'm going to vote No Lynch unless somebody talks me out of it.  It guarantees 4 alive tomorrow, lynching today guarantees 3 alive tomorrow.  Somebody tell me why I'm wrong.  Not MiX, sorry, you've tried twice, I'm just not picking up what you're putting down.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2560 on: April 01, 2019, 12:22:42 am »

@Joth, could the thread header be changed to say "Day 5" please? Thanks!

I could, but like faust donít want to overstep.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2561 on: April 01, 2019, 12:28:06 am »

I had the same though that Space had, that of lynching SK actually being the right play. But as I then realized, chances of losing are also high due to 3v2 going into night. If the commuter successfully commutes to dodge the kill, we are where we want to be tomorrow. Deathproof was another stopper there, but WCD claiming sort of takes that out of play.

If WCD is deathproof, BP SK, basically game over, congrats.

Re:Rae and NL...that was my second thought, and I havenít been convinced that itís wrong. There are some bad outcomes, of course ó like only town deaths ó but the idea that we have some better forced decisions tomorrow (i.e., less living scum, possibly scum wanting to out other scum) is tempting.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2562 on: April 01, 2019, 02:43:06 am »

The idea that scum get NKd during the night if we no lynch is ridiculous: SK can simply not kill anyone (or hit Didds) while Maquis kills town. How does this help anyone? We can only force SK to hit MQ if we mislynch. I don't get how no one saw this. This puts us in 2v2v1, which is unwinnable by any standards, or at the very least it's strictly worse than 3v2v1. On the other hand, it's so easy to lynch MQ today that we can force a 2v1v1 next day, which increase our odds much more (although we could be forced into 1v1v1...). Actually, I think 1v1v1 just makes SK win, right? Since they're full bulletproof? So MQ would never allow it.

Overall, MQ lynch is our best shot...or SK lynch. But the odds are better for MQ, close to 50% winrate assuming we win when we reach LyLo, opposed to...the MQ odds are actually hard to calculate, depends on PRs. But I would assume it's lower? Around 33%? Both work, but NL is terrible.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2563 on: April 01, 2019, 09:07:17 am »

The idea that scum get NKd during the night if we no lynch is ridiculous: SK can simply not kill anyone (or hit Didds) while Maquis kills town. How does this help anyone?

Ash was asking whether we're at lylo, so in response I was offering the scenario I'd thought of that let town win following a mislynch, which could be used as a proof that we're not strictly at lylo. Yes, it's unlikely to pan out that way.

Also, I'd like to comment on your language here. You've said "The idea... is ridiculous", and you're probably right. However, you could easily be read as someone who's being very direct and quite rude about it, and I don't see any indication that you're even aware of that. If you want to be less hostile about it, you could say "I think the idea is ridiculous", or you could use a phrase instead of "ridiculous" that gets at the heart of what you're trying to say, e.g. "implausible".

I mention this now because all through the game, I had been conscious of you calling ideas/concepts "stupid", but in every case I noticed, it looked like it could be argued that you weren't being outright rude about a person, so I kept quiet. Then you outright called me stupid in one of your first posts in D5, and that is definitely over the line. Sure, as a player I messed up, and I'm sorry to all the townies I let down because of it, but it's still not a reason to start pulling out derogatory names for players. Does that make sense to you?

Back to the game topic, and I certainly agree that lynching scum is better than not lynching scum.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2564 on: April 01, 2019, 09:23:32 am »

I had the same though that Space had, that of lynching SK actually being the right play. But as I then realized, chances of losing are also high due to 3v2 going into night. If the commuter successfully commutes to dodge the kill, we are where we want to be tomorrow. Deathproof was another stopper there, but WCD claiming sort of takes that out of play.

If WCD is deathproof, BP SK, basically game over, congrats.

Re:Rae and NL...that was my second thought, and I havenít been convinced that itís wrong. There are some bad outcomes, of course ó like only town deaths ó but the idea that we have some better forced decisions tomorrow (i.e., less living scum, possibly scum wanting to out other scum) is tempting.

I think I'm convinced that NL is more or less unwinnable for town, but quite good for Maquis.

For town, we have three of us left out of six. Three scum to kill before we're wiped out. If we don't lynch, how do we kill off the scums we need to kill in order to win? I see only two ways to kill off non-townies in the night, and both work only on Maquis and not on the SK:

Option 1: SK kills one of the Maquis. That may still be good for the SK's win-con.

Option 2: if we have a town busdriver, they divert a scum NK onto a Maquis. That has a very low likelihood of happening, since if we still had a useful bus driver, they should have helped save EFHW or our IC.

Neither of those is super-likely, whereas at least with a lynch we have a ~50% chance of hitting scum.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2565 on: April 01, 2019, 09:42:43 am »

I mean, I think we can all agree that scum lynch>no lynch>mislynch.

The point of my theorizing is we can fully control only one of those things.

As for whatever it is MiX is trying to say about NK targets...what?  Scum doesnít know target alignments for NKs any more than we know target alignments for lynches. So your argument is difficult for me to understand.

And why would scum choose to not kill at night?  They canít be caught, thereís no downside to failing due to BP, and it only helps their own wincon to reduce the not-them pool.

Posting what appears to be clearly incorrect information as cold, hard facts (as I believe heís been doing all game) is at best unhelpful and at worst misleading to the point of detrimental action being taken. If the latter is on purpose, it is coming from scum.

Here is where raerae should mention heís been all but impossible to lynch this game, which continues to be a scum tell.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2566 on: April 01, 2019, 09:46:46 am »

The hammer was stupid. I guess my wording's too agressive if you assume I'm talking directly at people, which is not my intention. I should probably...no, I should definitely tone down my vocabulary. As for the "stupid" comment itself, that post was meant to convey my general  discontent about the hammer, coupled with the frustration of not being useful to scumhunt.

I'm glad you're on my side of no lynch even if you didn't use my arguments  :P


Ash, you should specify WHICH scum you're talking about: they have completely different powers and situations. By the way, I'm operating in a "1v1v1 is a SK win" mindset, which might not be something you're considering.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2567 on: April 01, 2019, 10:09:36 am »

Hey everybody. Sorry for being absentee mod lately. A lot of RL stuff got in the way. Updating the thread now and will do a VC shortly.
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2568 on: April 01, 2019, 10:28:58 am »

Vote Count 5.1

"Admiral Ross, we need you to send us some reinforcements. I'm down to one enlistedman as my entire senior staff," Dax says, talking to the Admiral over subspace. "Miles is used to doing 10 jobs, but this is beyond even his abilities. I'm considering drafting some civilians to cover other duties."

"You'll have to do that, Lieutenant," the Admiral says. "I'm afraid to say Starfleet doesn't have personnel to spare at the moment. Your orders are to not let anyone leave until the threat is neutralized."

The Admiral looks at Dax with a tired look.

"Just get it done Lieutenant. We've lost too many good people. Ross out."



ashersky (1): MiX
Not voting (5): UmbrageofSnow, WestCoastDidds, SpaceAnemone, ashersky, raerae

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch most players.

Day 5 will end  at 9 pm ET time (13:00 GMT) on Saturday, April 6th

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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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ashersky

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2569 on: April 01, 2019, 10:41:28 am »

1v1v1 is a town loss, so I donít particularly care who wins. If you are pointing out that the mod has decided thatís an automatic SK win given the kingmaker problem, I was unaware of that, and again, I donít really care.

The only scum death tonight will be a mafia death, as the SK is BP. But why does one need to specify which scum kill we are talking about?  Scum can and will kill every night unless itís is 2v1v1 and there is some possibility that two scum kill each other. Even then, unless the BP has been used up and it isnít WCD, SK is safe anyway. So again, I still fail to understand your point.
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year

Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
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Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2570 on: April 01, 2019, 10:54:42 am »

1v1v1 is a town loss, so I donít particularly care who wins. If you are pointing out that the mod has decided thatís an automatic SK win given the kingmaker problem, I was unaware of that, and again, I donít really care.

The only scum death tonight will be a mafia death, as the SK is BP. But why does one need to specify which scum kill we are talking about?  Scum can and will kill every night unless itís is 2v1v1 and there is some possibility that two scum kill each other. Even then, unless the BP has been used up and it isnít WCD, SK is safe anyway. So again, I still fail to understand your point.

MQ doesn't want a 1v1v1 so they'll play differently. Same for SK not wanting 1v2v1; and neither want 2v1 (well, SK doesn't, whereas MQ might have to settle for it). This means they kill differently. There's also the fact that SK doesn't truly know who MQ are so they can't fullt plan the NKs, which means he would rather play safely and not risk killing the wrong team when he doesn't NEED the kill.

By the way, SK has full(!) bulletproof, so MQ targetting him isn't very useful (gives them information I guess?).
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I donít think even MiX is townreading MiX.

raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2571 on: April 01, 2019, 11:20:41 am »

Space, if we lunch today, who are you're top two candidates?
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2572 on: April 01, 2019, 12:20:02 pm »

Space, if we lunch today, who are you're top two candidates?

I want to work out who I think is most likely to be the SK, and then push for that. I haven't worked out who it is yet.

I think the two Maquis players should claim, so I can remove them from my lynchpool for today :-)
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Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2573 on: April 01, 2019, 12:26:50 pm »

Space, if we lunch today, who are you're top two candidates?

I want to work out who I think is most likely to be the SK, and then push for that. I haven't worked out who it is yet.

I think the two Maquis players should claim, so I can remove them from my lynchpool for today :-)

Do you believe a SK lynch's better than a MQ lynch? If so, why?
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I donít think even MiX is townreading MiX.

WestCoastDidds

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 5)
« Reply #2574 on: April 01, 2019, 01:08:41 pm »

By the way, SK has full(!) bulletproof, so MQ targetting him isn't very useful (gives them information I guess?).

So, the only way to off the SK is to lynch him?
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It's probably not townie mctownerson WCD.
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