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Author Topic: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (GAME OVER, Maquis win!)  (Read 47723 times)

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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2525 on: March 31, 2019, 01:40:23 pm »

I'm here, and I'm sure I have lots of relevant thoughts, but I'm struggling so badly with awakeness today. I've got a lot of house stuff I need to get done while there's daylight on my side.

ETA for thinking maybe 5.30pm forum time? I've got a friend arriving for dinner and Disco in about half an hour, and they usually stay till about 10 local time.

We'll be here when you get back, have fun and have a coffee, you've gotta need it!
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2526 on: March 31, 2019, 01:44:33 pm »

Ash's scum mostly due to the case I made D4 that, at least for me, narrowed down the teams to Didds/Uncle, Snow/Uncle and Ash/Snow. Since Uncle's town, the only team left is Ash/Snow. I also believe Didds isn't Maquis, and I'm still mildly townreading you (less now), which leads me to conclude Ash's Maquis. I also believe Garak is scum and that Ash is Garak, which is why I'm voting for him and not Snow. It's a bit weak, but if you combine both of our perspectives I think this is the only logical conclusion. Of course, I could be wrong about you, and I could be Maquis in your eyes, but...yeah. The case on NotMaquis!Didds is more complicated, I could tell you it, if you want. Do you want it?

I know what you're going to say: why am I basing a case on something that caused Eddie to get mislynched? Well, back at the time I wasn't townreading Didds. That was my mistake. But really, the only possible Didds team was with Uncle and now that's not possible, so I suppose it's forgivable...

Hold the phone.  You just asked if I was Garak.  But now you KNOW Ash is?  I don't think either Ash or I should claim.

I don't know who Garak is, I'm assuming ash's Garak, mostly because I had a townread on you and you're the only one that can be Garak if ash isn't.

Didds could be lying as town. That's all, really. No lynch while losing one bulletproof is the worst, but it's also necessary if Dax is SK. Still don't think a CC should happen.

Agreed that SK almost always wins here if he's commuter or deathproof...sigh...

Ash: are you, or are you not, Garak? Please answer this, even with an "I'm not answering" post. I'm also asking this to raerae.

Lying as town?  Can you explain that too, please?

Hiding the identity of Dax is so important town can lie, mostly because no one should claim (other than Garak). Of course, no one should say anything, but I believe Didds would be the first to do a weird play for funzies, and this is a weird play for funzies.

@MiX, Didds, Snow: Thoughts on a No Lynch?

An absolute waste of time, NKs will leave us in a worse position. I have more to say about this but there's no reason to help scum.

I'm here, and I'm sure I have lots of relevant thoughts, but I'm struggling so badly with awakeness today. I've got a lot of house stuff I need to get done while there's daylight on my side.

ETA for thinking maybe 5.30pm forum time? I've got a friend arriving for dinner and Disco in about half an hour, and they usually stay till about 10 local time.

Take your time to think, drunk mafia eats a little piece of your brain and it needs time to recover.
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2527 on: March 31, 2019, 02:42:47 pm »

Why'd you ask me to claim if I was Garak?  Then give me zero time to do so before accusing Ash of it?
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2528 on: March 31, 2019, 02:46:30 pm »

Why'd you ask me to claim if I was Garak?  Then give me zero time to do so before accusing Ash of it?

I've been accusing Ash of being Garak for quite some time now. To make this post more than a simple answer, why do you think Garak shouldn't claim?
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2529 on: March 31, 2019, 03:03:22 pm »

Why'd you ask me to claim if I was Garak?  Then give me zero time to do so before accusing Ash of it?

I've been accusing Ash of being Garak for quite some time now. To make this post more than a simple answer, why do you think Garak shouldn't claim?

Don't avoid the question.  Why'd you want me to claim?
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2530 on: March 31, 2019, 03:14:29 pm »

Why'd you ask me to claim if I was Garak?  Then give me zero time to do so before accusing Ash of it?

I've been accusing Ash of being Garak for quite some time now. To make this post more than a simple answer, why do you think Garak shouldn't claim?

Don't avoid the question.  Why'd you want me to claim?

Here's how I see it, you, Space, me, and Ash haven't claimed yet.  If you get Ash and I to claim, even if it's just "Not Garak," you've narrowed the pool for the remaining roles.  That's scummy as hell, why are you trying to expose more town roles?
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2531 on: March 31, 2019, 03:21:07 pm »

Why'd you ask me to claim if I was Garak?  Then give me zero time to do so before accusing Ash of it?

I've been accusing Ash of being Garak for quite some time now. To make this post more than a simple answer, why do you think Garak shouldn't claim?

Don't avoid the question.  Why'd you want me to claim?

Here's how I see it, you, Space, me, and Ash haven't claimed yet.  If you get Ash and I to claim, even if it's just "Not Garak," you've narrowed the pool for the remaining roles.  That's scummy as hell, why are you trying to expose more town roles?

On top of that, Garak didn't claim yesterday so it's HIGHLY unlikely they're going to claim today.  And the cherry is that it doesn't matter anymore.  We need to identify Maquis and a role isn't a guaranteed way to do that. 
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2532 on: March 31, 2019, 03:36:44 pm »

Why'd you ask me to claim if I was Garak?  Then give me zero time to do so before accusing Ash of it?

I've been accusing Ash of being Garak for quite some time now. To make this post more than a simple answer, why do you think Garak shouldn't claim?

Don't avoid the question.  Why'd you want me to claim?

Here's how I see it, you, Space, me, and Ash haven't claimed yet.  If you get Ash and I to claim, even if it's just "Not Garak," you've narrowed the pool for the remaining roles.  That's scummy as hell, why are you trying to expose more town roles?

On top of that, Garak didn't claim yesterday so it's HIGHLY unlikely they're going to claim today.  And the cherry is that it doesn't matter anymore.  We need to identify Maquis and a role isn't a guaranteed way to do that. 

Because Garak has information. Obviously, that information's not useful enough for town to claim, which makes me believe Garak's scum that didn't bus drive and doesn't want to give an innocent result. Unless you believe town!Garak would ever, EVER not bus drive EFHW there? I don't...

So, essencially, I want a Garak claim so we can lynch them. I was toying around with the idea that town!Garak has information for town but at this point I doubt there's a town!Garak. Feel free to convince me otherwise.

Yesterday there was no chance that Garak was even remotely scummy nor did he have a reason to use his ability. Today we have both (EFHW died and Garak should've protected her). I believe that completely changes the circumstances around his claim.
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2533 on: March 31, 2019, 03:54:36 pm »

Why'd you ask me to claim if I was Garak?  Then give me zero time to do so before accusing Ash of it?

I've been accusing Ash of being Garak for quite some time now. To make this post more than a simple answer, why do you think Garak shouldn't claim?

Don't avoid the question.  Why'd you want me to claim?

Here's how I see it, you, Space, me, and Ash haven't claimed yet.  If you get Ash and I to claim, even if it's just "Not Garak," you've narrowed the pool for the remaining roles.  That's scummy as hell, why are you trying to expose more town roles?

On top of that, Garak didn't claim yesterday so it's HIGHLY unlikely they're going to claim today.  And the cherry is that it doesn't matter anymore.  We need to identify Maquis and a role isn't a guaranteed way to do that. 

Because Garak has information. Obviously, that information's not useful enough for town to claim, which makes me believe Garak's scum that didn't bus drive and doesn't want to give an innocent result. Unless you believe town!Garak would ever, EVER not bus drive EFHW there? I don't...

So, essencially, I want a Garak claim so we can lynch them. I was toying around with the idea that town!Garak has information for town but at this point I doubt there's a town!Garak. Feel free to convince me otherwise.

Yesterday there was no chance that Garak was even remotely scummy nor did he have a reason to use his ability. Today we have both (EFHW died and Garak should've protected her). I believe that completely changes the circumstances around his claim.

That's ridiculous, you think scum is going to claim so you can lynch them?  I mean, if that were the case Town would have won already.  Let's talk no lynch again, why do you think it put town behind? 
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2534 on: March 31, 2019, 03:59:09 pm »

Hey, I'm alive, I'm honestly not up to posting much or reading anything today. I didn't submit a night action last night. Not that it matters.

I'll review the end of the day (did it end early or did I lose track of time) tonight or tomorrow or something and comment on that. Just, whatever, I'm here, I'm not dead.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2535 on: March 31, 2019, 04:05:40 pm »


Because Garak has information. Obviously, that information's not useful enough for town to claim, which makes me believe Garak's scum that didn't bus drive and doesn't want to give an innocent result. Unless you believe town!Garak would ever, EVER not bus drive EFHW there? I don't...

So, essencially, I want a Garak claim so we can lynch them. I was toying around with the idea that town!Garak has information for town but at this point I doubt there's a town!Garak. Feel free to convince me otherwise.

Yesterday there was no chance that Garak was even remotely scummy nor did he have a reason to use his ability. Today we have both (EFHW died and Garak should've protected her). I believe that completely changes the circumstances around his claim.

That's ridiculous, you think scum is going to claim so you can lynch them?  I mean, if that were the case Town would have won already.  Let's talk no lynch again, why do you think it put town behind? 

We can narrow down who Garak is if everyone else claims "Not Garak"! How is this not obvious?? No lynch is bad because...man, I have some good plays planned out, but I don't want to tell scum about it. One of the scumteams can insure no scum get NKd. Thus we'll enter 2v2v1 (maybe 2v1v1), which is worse than what we have now. Not to mention it kills Didds' deathproof. There's a scenario where this is false, in which case we'll get some information, or scum can gamble since the odds are for them. This is worse than lynching Maquis today.

Tell me, why do you think no lynch's better than Maquis lynch?

Hey, I'm alive, I'm honestly not up to posting much or reading anything today. I didn't submit a night action last night. Not that it matters.

I'll review the end of the day (did it end early or did I lose track of time) tonight or tomorrow or something and comment on that. Just, whatever, I'm here, I'm not dead.

Space derphammered because they forgot about Uncle's PR, which was known from his very first post. Still a bit annoyed at it, and at the fact that I can't scumread them for it.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2536 on: March 31, 2019, 04:08:33 pm »

6 alive: 3 town, 2 maquis, 1 SK with very high probability, enough that I'm willing to just assume that.

No lynch-> SK shoots maquis, maquis shoots SK (best case) -> 3 town, 1 maquis, 1 SK, maquis know the SK. We can try to read interactions into successfully lynching the SK, which is maquis best chance to win but the surviving maquis can't be too obvious about it.

No lynch-> SK shoots maquis, masquis shoots town (best likely case) -> 2 town, 1 maquis, 1 SK -> have to lynch
   50% Lynch town -> SK victory
   25% Lynch SK -> Maquis shoots town -> 1 town, 1 maquis - >Maquis victory

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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2537 on: March 31, 2019, 04:08:44 pm »

stbrsacbecruntauo damn it
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2538 on: March 31, 2019, 04:09:29 pm »

25% lynch maquis -> SK shoots town -> 1 town, 1 SK -> SK victory

I'm strongly opposed to no lynch
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2539 on: March 31, 2019, 04:10:40 pm »

I think that all makes sense, usually  try to think through these things before clicking post, but god damn tab button.

Anyway, that doesn't consider the chances of no lynching and SK shooting town, which is even worse. We lynch today.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2540 on: March 31, 2019, 04:11:41 pm »

MiX: why can't you scumread Space for it?
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2541 on: March 31, 2019, 04:13:04 pm »

I don't think it's worth considering Dax's deathproof in this, because Dax is just as likely to be maquis as anyone else and then we're in the same boat with a no lynch again, etc.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2542 on: March 31, 2019, 04:13:25 pm »

Or SK, but then it doesn't really matter to NK math anyway.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2543 on: March 31, 2019, 04:14:50 pm »

MiX wanting to autolynch Garak is scummy as hell.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2544 on: March 31, 2019, 04:18:32 pm »

MiX: why can't you scumread Space for it?

I think it's NAI, there's no way Space, a person that I'm sure prides themselves in deduction through VCAs, would ever fake forgetting about Uncle's role. Thus, it was legitimate, something that both town!Space and scum!Space are capable of doing.

Although I like your analysis, you missed the protective PRs which are essencially our way out of this situation into a decent LyLo.

I don't think it's worth considering Dax's deathproof in this, because Dax is just as likely to be maquis as anyone else and then we're in the same boat with a no lynch again, etc.

Not...sure what you mean by this. Dax forces no NK in a night that scum wanted to NK, I think that's pretty strong. Maybe I'm underplaying the lynchproof angle? I'm almost ignoring it.

MiX wanting to autolynch Garak is scummy as hell.

If you think Garak can be town after EFHW flipped, please explain, because I can't see that. Or at least said Garak would've claimed already.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2545 on: March 31, 2019, 04:30:46 pm »

Garak could have used his power earlier, trying to snipe redirect an NK like I talked about earlier in the game. That's not something only scum would have done. It's certainly not a scumclaim as you're implying.

If Dax is scum then she doesn't force a no kill, although scum could always choose not to kill.

I do agree PR luck could help us here, but don't think we should be lynching assuming how it plays out.

Lynching Dax is catastrophic.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2546 on: March 31, 2019, 04:32:47 pm »

My biggest problem with MiX here is that I thought he got this stuff earlier but is now pushing for the unthinking Garak lynch.

His thoughts on Garak have been all over the place all game, but largely focussed around lynching without having to build a case on whomever the player was. That's another reason I was screwing around with acting Garak like Yesterday.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2547 on: March 31, 2019, 04:35:45 pm »

MiX: let's assume Ash claims (WLOG) Yates. What is your read on Ash in that case?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2548 on: March 31, 2019, 04:36:08 pm »

*Without loss of generality
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2549 on: March 31, 2019, 05:00:57 pm »

Garak could have used his power earlier, trying to snipe redirect an NK like I talked about earlier in the game. That's not something only scum would have done. It's certainly not a scumclaim as you're implying.

If Dax is scum then she doesn't force a no kill, although scum could always choose not to kill.

I do agree PR luck could help us here, but don't think we should be lynching assuming how it plays out.

Lynching Dax is catastrophic.

What's more likely: Garak misplayed his role (this is highly subjective, but...using bus drive before any cop claims seems bad. I have to admit I didn't think a lot about it, however) or he's scum that didn't protect EFHW so he could kill her? Actually both are pretty unlikely as far as plays go, but seeing as no one's scumreading Garak due to EFHW flipping, maybe the latter's a good play afterall.

Maquis!Dax forces no NK from SK, but I suppose that's bad for us. Damn, Dax might be weaker than I thought. At least we still have commuter!

My biggest problem with MiX here is that I thought he got this stuff earlier but is now pushing for the unthinking Garak lynch.

His thoughts on Garak have been all over the place all game, but largely focussed around lynching without having to build a case on whomever the player was. That's another reason I was screwing around with acting Garak like Yesterday.

That player is ash, whom I've built a case already. You're right in that I wish I could simply lynch based on role, and here it seems a good idea, better than having to rely on gut reads.

I don't think why the Garak lynch is unthinkable, did everyone assume Garak would've used his power N3-? I can see a scenario where that's possible, but...well, it's unlikely and probably bad play. I might've done it, however.

MiX: let's assume Ash claims (WLOG) Yates. What is your read on Ash in that case?

I would probably think about voting him or you, depending on your interactions with raerae. I would also engage with raerae to see what she did as Garak (reminder that if you used bus drive an earlier day and it did nothing, you should claim that you haven't used it) to see if I believe her reasons. So overall it would be less of an instant lynch. I also trust raerae more, so I wouldn't snapvote her, but I would definitely be skeptical if she claimed to not have bus drived EFHW.
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