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Author Topic: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (GAME OVER, Maquis win!)  (Read 377559 times)

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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2500 on: March 30, 2019, 10:49:05 pm »

Okay, here's how we sit.

Alive:
UoS
Didds
MiX
Ash
Space
raerae

EFHW's deal rules out a MU team so we're looking at a SK+2MQ which means there are THREE TOWN left and we can't win?

There are TWO MQ in:
UoS
Didds
MiX
Ash
raerae

Ash and I are town (unless I'm wrong, you can fess up now if you like). 

Space's hammer was awful.  Before the "I didn't know" arguments come out, UncleEddie was updating his VC with every vote, L-1 wasn't announced, he claimed hated D1, and joth had a VC just a few posts prior.  It was very clearly intentional.

That means there is one town in:
UoS
Didds
MiX

Soooo, does town have incentive to keep the SK alive and kill MQ?  This is directed at Ash.

unvote
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ashersky

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2501 on: March 31, 2019, 12:07:35 am »

Welp, my motivation to try has bottomed out considering the chances of winning. But, I think we need to think this through. (Isn’t two scum teams still technically possible?  I think town can’t win in that scenarios though so I am ignoring it here.)

If SK+2M, we have 3 v 2 v 1.  Let’s worst case it:

Mislynch, 2v2v1, both town NK, 2v1 and M wins.
Mislynch, 2v2v1, town NK, 1v2v1. No lynch then see who wins?  Seems hopeless here.
Mislynch, 2v2v1, town/M NK, 1v1v1 and kingmaker? Did joth make a ruling on that?
Mislynch, 2v2v1, M NK, 2v1v1, seems bad. No lynch and cross fingers.

M lynch, 3v1v1, both town NK, 1v1v1 and kingmaker.
M lynch, 3v1v1, town NK, 2v1v1.  Lynch one bad guy and lose to the other or mislynch and lose to someone.
M lynch, 3v1v1, town/M NK, 2v1 and regular LYLO.
M lynch, 3v1v1, M NK, 3v1, no lynch then lylo.

SK lynch, 3v2, town NK, 2v2 means No Lynch, Town NK puts us to LYLO.

No lynch, 3v2v1, both town NK, see 1v2v1 scenario.
No lynch, 3v2v1, town NK, 2v2v1, a few possibilities arise.
No lynch, 3v2v1, town/M NK, 2v1v1, sure loss.
No lynch, 3v2v1, M NK, 3v1v1, some possibilities arise.


So it is at least MYLO.  There are maybe two or three scenarios where we could still win. The single safest outcome seems to be lynching the SK. Second might be NL (+lightning rod were that in play).

It’s that odd almost kingmaker-y scenario where some scum lynched hurt our chances of winning.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2502 on: March 31, 2019, 12:09:43 am »

Check my math as it was on a phone.

To raerae, I think our incentive is to remove a kill, so the SK here. That gets us to basically a VT vs. MG game. Then it’s pure scum hunting.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2503 on: March 31, 2019, 12:10:58 am »

That also removes the need to care about how NKs go. Wait, no, that’s backwards. SK lynch guarantees M win.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2504 on: March 31, 2019, 12:11:39 am »

So yes, we can’t lynch the SK here. SK should claim.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2505 on: March 31, 2019, 12:13:49 am »

So, unfunly—we have to lynch M or No Lynch. In all other scenarios scum auto-wins.

So, basically that’s the discussion for today, unless I’m missing something.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2506 on: March 31, 2019, 12:17:19 am »

Man, even in the “good” scenarios, it’s mostly king making. In NL+T Kill, one mafia can tell us who the SK is, outing two scum total and basically allowing town to decide which team to lose to (since we lynch one or the other and lose to the one we leave alive). 
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2507 on: March 31, 2019, 12:18:37 am »

I’m out for awhile. I say no voting until we hash this out fully and decide how we want to end the game.

If anyone sees a more optimistic option, please post it.
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2508 on: March 31, 2019, 12:27:07 am »

I’m out for awhile. I say no voting until we hash this out fully and decide how we want to end the game.

If anyone sees a more optimistic option, please post it.

Naw, we're up a creek.  Space can't be Maquis (excepting weird bus driving stuff) but she can be SK or Town.  My money is on SK.  We would benefit from figuring out who our other Town friend is but we're still going to have a rough go.  I'd like to see what Didds and UoS think of Space's hammer before moving forward. 
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2509 on: March 31, 2019, 05:24:10 am »

Before I read the (rest of) ash's number crunching, I was thinking about lynching Maquis, hopefully forcing a 2v1v1, then we would no lynch and then if SK kills MQ we enter LyLo.

Don't forget we have TWO protective roles, which means we have a decent chance of creating a LyLo or Mylo situation, we haven't lost yet.

That said, Garak should claim: whoever they busdrived with EFHW isn't...Maquis? I think SK would kill faust, unless he's Garak...regardless we need a full Garak claim.

Space's hammer was 1. Stupid 2. Incredibly uncharacteristic 3. Perfectly NAI, which is why I hate it. I believe there was a way to lynch Snow that day, but Space completely threw it off.

For today I would simply lynch Garak...he must be scum since EFHW died. Okay, next post's about ash's probabilities.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2510 on: March 31, 2019, 05:40:51 am »

I don't like how ash wrote 3 different things for each 2v1v1 sceario. He seems to be degrading the situation each time. I believe that's our most likely chance of winning.

Garak should've bus drived and he should, thus, have a "cop" result on whoever he bus drived. But he's probably scum, so this is mostly worthless.

Ash is wrong in that lynching SK's impossible: it's a possibility, but it would involve Maquis NKing one of our protective roles, so it would be 2/3 chances of the 3v2 LyLo happening, worse if some Maquis are those roles. But it's much easier to lynch Maquis today, it's basically Garak or ash, possibly both.

If anyone thinks ash isn't Maquis nor SK they should say so with good reasoning.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2511 on: March 31, 2019, 06:24:26 am »

I’ve written and deleted multiple replies at this point but can’t get to a point where I feel like it’s an acceptable draft per the civility pledge. Basically I don’t think it’s possible for me to respond to MiX at all, and probably just can’t respond.  I’m seriously considering blocking them so I don’t see any posts.

Possible commuter shot, one deathproof, SK BP.  Those are the possible powers left that can matter. Considering that’s two roles that town can have and half of living players are scum, I have to imagine at least one is not helping us.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2512 on: March 31, 2019, 06:36:33 am »

I’ve written and deleted multiple replies at this point but can’t get to a point where I feel like it’s an acceptable draft per the civility pledge. Basically I don’t think it’s possible for me to respond to MiX at all, and probably just can’t respond.  I’m seriously considering blocking them so I don’t see any posts.

Possible commuter shot, one deathproof, SK BP.  Those are the possible powers left that can matter. Considering that’s two roles that town can have and half of living players are scum, I have to imagine at least one is not helping us.

...I'm sorry. I guess I'm hated by everyone, and it seems to be for good reasons. This should probably be discussed, most likely after the game's over. I would really like to know...everything I'm doing wrong that makes people not be able to interact with me. Yes, I'm aggressive, but is it really being too much? I can't objectively answer this...

You're right about the PR part: I overestimated the odds of MQ failing to NK after SK lynch, it should be around 1/3. Now tell me why you're town, if you can. Also, can you answer this question: are you Garak?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2513 on: March 31, 2019, 09:09:02 am »

Ashersky, I’m gonna stand next to you for awhile. I appreciate you helping us think through what we need to do, so I’m going to try to add to your thoughts.

I’m Dax, and I’m station-aligned. So, one-shot deathproof. I am not sure exactly how that might help us (I think it does, maybe?), but thinking through scenarios is definitely not my strong suit so I’m giving this to you to add to your mix.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2514 on: March 31, 2019, 09:34:15 am »

WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM

Neither Dax nor Yates should claim, doing so makes their role useless, because their bulletproofs won't be triggered if scum avoids them. As an extention to this, no non-Garak role should claim to hide the identity of our bulletproof folk.

WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM

That said, I believe Didds' "claim" makes her townier if she is, in fact, Dax. Or at least, less likely to be MQ. No one should counterclaim her.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2515 on: March 31, 2019, 10:31:16 am »

I think if WCD is lying, a counterclaim is fine. That hilariously reduces our chances of lynching scum from 3 in 5 (for town players) to 1 in 2.  If it were to be scum on scum, even funnier.

A counterclaim is funny here, though. Lynch incorrectly and it’s a no lynch that just negates the role and puts us in the no lynch scenarios. Lynch correctly and we get rid of scum and our deathproof goes to LYLO guaranteed, even if they are scum.

I think a counterclaim is the right move. Of course, I believe WCD here anyway, so moot point.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2516 on: March 31, 2019, 10:34:34 am »

I think the commuter is the only real PR that matters here, and only if they have saved their shot until now.

But, imagine the SK is the Commuter. They wait until they survive via BP, then commute the next night. Basically unstoppable.

Basically same goes for Deathproof. SK is a monster in this setup with certain roles.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2517 on: March 31, 2019, 12:03:56 pm »

Didds could be lying as town. That's all, really. No lynch while losing one bulletproof is the worst, but it's also necessary if Dax is SK. Still don't think a CC should happen.

Agreed that SK almost always wins here if he's commuter or deathproof...sigh...

Ash: are you, or are you not, Garak? Please answer this, even with an "I'm not answering" post. I'm also asking this to raerae.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2518 on: March 31, 2019, 12:39:17 pm »

So MiX, you think we should kill the SK today?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2519 on: March 31, 2019, 01:03:29 pm »

So MiX, you think we should kill the SK today?

No, we should kill Maquis, which is precisely why I'm voting for ash. I also believe we should vote for Garak, because if they were town they would've claimed by now, and I think ash's Garak.

As for reasons for Garak to claim, if they bus drived then they would know who scum targetted that was bus drived into EFHW (if they didn't bus drive EFHW then they're scum) and, thus, we would have a "cop" result on them, because I believe SK killed faust (if SK isn't Garak), thus said person couldn't be Maquis. If SK's Garak, then we should lynch them anyway, because there's no way to distinguish them from Maquis and we can still win after a SK lynch.

I hope I answered everything, I have a feeling I'm being confusing...
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2520 on: March 31, 2019, 01:18:14 pm »

So MiX, you think we should kill the SK today?

No, we should kill Maquis, which is precisely why I'm voting for ash. I also believe we should vote for Garak, because if they were town they would've claimed by now, and I think ash's Garak.

As for reasons for Garak to claim, if they bus drived then they would know who scum targetted that was bus drived into EFHW (if they didn't bus drive EFHW then they're scum) and, thus, we would have a "cop" result on them, because I believe SK killed faust (if SK isn't Garak), thus said person couldn't be Maquis. If SK's Garak, then we should lynch them anyway, because there's no way to distinguish them from Maquis and we can still win after a SK lynch.

I hope I answered everything, I have a feeling I'm being confusing...

I think you should unvote and flesh that out a little more if for no reason other than my benefit.  How is Ash Maquis?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2521 on: March 31, 2019, 01:27:40 pm »

Hold the phone.  You just asked if I was Garak.  But now you KNOW Ash is?  I don't think either Ash or I should claim.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2522 on: March 31, 2019, 01:29:08 pm »

Didds could be lying as town. That's all, really. No lynch while losing one bulletproof is the worst, but it's also necessary if Dax is SK. Still don't think a CC should happen.

Agreed that SK almost always wins here if he's commuter or deathproof...sigh...

Ash: are you, or are you not, Garak? Please answer this, even with an "I'm not answering" post. I'm also asking this to raerae.

Lying as town?  Can you explain that too, please?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2523 on: March 31, 2019, 01:34:23 pm »

@MiX, Didds, Snow: Thoughts on a No Lynch?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2524 on: March 31, 2019, 01:37:47 pm »

I'm here, and I'm sure I have lots of relevant thoughts, but I'm struggling so badly with awakeness today. I've got a lot of house stuff I need to get done while there's daylight on my side.

ETA for thinking maybe 5.30pm forum time? I've got a friend arriving for dinner and Disco in about half an hour, and they usually stay till about 10 local time.
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