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[WestCoastDidds]

@Didds: What do you think is helpful about Space's lists? Is effort the same thing as helpfulness to you?

Hmm...good question. The lists are helpful to me because they put information spread across the game into a single place that makes it easy to analyze. Effort is often a sign of helpfulness, but sometimes effort is not helpful. Rarely is someone helpful without effort, but I suppose it’s possible. I appreciate effort regardless. And I understand that helpfulness is subjective. What helps me may not be helpful to someone else.

Mix, yes play styles definitely color my perceptions. I’d argue that is true for most of us. Awaclus and e we’re both lynched, in some part, because of how they were playing. Awaclus definitely gets votes because of his play style in every game I’ve played with him. In my limited experience, the only time he was helpful, he was scum.

I’m not Marquis. And your assertion that I am,  framed as a sudden revelation based on EFHW’s claim, is scumdeliumptious.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Anyway, no point sitting on this I guess:

I'm Chief O'Brien, I like kayaking, mystery novels and long walks on the beach with the love of my life Bashir Keiko.
Ash, Didds, and faust aren't Mirror Universe, but that's probably useless.

[EFHW]

Even if it's not, I've decided to go ahead. I'm Worf, and faust and Space are NOT Maquis. Neither was Glooble, but you already know that.

Can you explain why you investigated those three?

LL picked Space. I had scumread on Glooble. I was thinking of faust as town because of his Awaclus exploit, but it was quite possible he would do that as scum, too. So I picked him.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

@WCD: let me rephrase: why do Space's lists make them more likely to be town in your opinion?

[EFHW]

Anyway, no point sitting on this I guess:

I'm Chief O'Brien, I like kayaking, mystery novels and long walks on the beach with the love of my life Bashir Keiko.
Ash, Didds, and faust aren't Mirror Universe, but that's probably useless.

Not useless, now faust is IC.

[EFHW]

WIFOM on who Garak should protect now.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

If Garak has a shot left (which we don't know for sure) he should obviously protect EFHW. Most of the utility of me not claiming was to protect Worf.

Making this a WIFOM thing is super scummy, if EFHW survives two nights she's obviously SK.

(Now that's how you WIFOM...)

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Unvote

Vobe: Glooble for stealing my color

[WestCoastDidds]

@WCD: let me rephrase: why do Space's lists make them more likely to be town in your opinion?

Ah, better question. When she was not-quite-town, the kinds of lists she posted where not quite helpful. In that case, they had so much information that they couldn’t quite be digested. I’m not sure why she’d bother if she wasn’t town. I don’t think the work puts her squarely in town camp, but I do find them more helpful than what MiX or Eddie have done. MiX, especially, will create truncated lists of things that I find misleading (like the D3 “remarkable” chicken wagon with just me on it).

[UmbrageOfSnow]

MiX: Why aren't raerae and I remarkable?

[SpaceAnemone]

Wow, this is good.

@UoS, that's excellent targeting on your part to give three clear results, plus yourself. That means if there is a MU team at all, from my perspective it's got to be three out of four of EFHW, raerae, Eddie and MiX. That seems really unlikely.

The PoE for catching Shraeye's buddies looks strong. With faust full-IC, and EFHW and me definitely-not-Maquis, there's not a lot of places left for Maquis votes to be hiding in the early-game wagons. The possible Maquis players are UoS, WCD, MiX, Ash, Eddie, and raerae (6 people in total, and two Maquis between them).

I still think raerae is an unlikely scum-buddy for Shraeye, because she was voting for him quite consistently in D1, then voting alongside him in D2 on a pretty short MiX wagon, which is not something two scums typically do, at least in all the wagon-gazing I do in non-multiball setups.

If we assume that raerae isn't Maquis, then the game state at #750 looks interesting. At that point, 4/6 of the not-definitely-non-Maquis are all voting EFHW (who may still technically have been LaLight at that point, but my vote list says EFHW, so let's roll with that). The two off-wagon are Ash and raerae. It seems unlikely that all three will be on a wagon that's relatively small in the scheme of the overall game, so I think looking for an off-wagon scum is reasonable, and Ash is the best fit for that.

WCD is clearly a likely candidate, given that EFHW cannot herself be Maquis.. so either e really had a five-towns-on-town wagon that the Maquis just didn't want to join for some reason, or WCD was the Maquis that joined. She was also an early supporter of the Robz wagon. Either that got to nine-towns-on-town all by itself, or one of WCD and UoS was an early supporter.

[SpaceAnemone]

@UoS, that's excellent targeting on your part to give three clear results, plus yourself. That means if there is a MU team at all, from my perspective it's got to be three out of four of EFHW, raerae, Eddie and MiX. That seems really unlikely.

Sorry.. I should have fleshed that out a bit more. I mean it's unlikely that there's a MU team because the PoE is strong. I also really don't see MiX and raerae being buddies, which narrows the options.

So given that there's pretty strong evidence in favour of a single SK, I think trying to make use of the strong PoE EFHW's results give us makes hunting for Shraeye's buddies the best thing to do for the moment, hence the rest of my post.

[SpaceAnemone]

Rereading Space it's very very clear that they stop pushing the "EFHW or E is scum" case, even though it only became stronger after E's flip. It looks, well, out of place, because I just used that expression, I would assume Space would be all over EFHW right now. Like, really, Space stopped doing that because, and I quote:

EFHW's play so far in D4 seems towny enough.

And hmm that's it. Space, how, exactly, is EFHW towny?

I think she looks even more townie now than she did earlier :-) Are you convinced now that she feels like someone who's playing with town's interests at heart, or are you asking me to dig back through her earlier D4 posts to try and work out exactly what combinations of words from her gave me that impression in case you think I was making it up?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I'd actually like you to answer that please, Space.

[SpaceAnemone]

Here's a snapshot of the voting near the end of D2, which kind of confuses my wagon analysis. I'm using teal for people (me and EFHW) who are confirmed non-Maquis but from the PoV of the rest of you are not ICs:

#1316
MiX (5): raerae, Chickenwarlord, ashersky, Shraeye, WestCoastDidds
Awaclus (3): faust, Glooble, DatSwan
Glooble (1): EFHW
faust (4): 2.71828....., Awaclus, UmbrageOfSnow, MiX
Uncleeurope (1): SpaceAnemone
SpaceAnemone (1): Uncleeurope

With MiX the leading wagon, and Shraeye on his tail along with both Ash and WCD, whom I find suspicious, I think MiX is in general less likely to be part of the Maquis faction, especially when faust is a valid other wagon to be pushing. OTOH, Ash, Shraeye and WCD all being there in a row on MiX's wagon isn't a usual configuration for a three-person scum-team, so something's suspicious. I feel like one likely resolution is that MiX is town and that maybe one of UoS and Eddie are Maquis in place of one of WCD and Ash.

[WestCoastDidds]

I’m curious to see what raerae thinks of Space’s analysis in regard to MiX...

[SpaceAnemone]

I'd actually like you to answer that please, Space.

Okay.. brief response now, because EFHW isn't really someone we need to spend time re-reading right now. Anyway, here's a 10-mins-of-re-reading overview if what felt townie to me about EFHW in the earlier part of D4:

1) She makes common-sense points in the claiming discussion, which doesn't feel like someone acting with a hidden agenda. This is clear when she engages with the discussions surrounding whether or not there should be a Garak claim, whether cops should claim etc.
2) She seems to resist being baited into making stronger statements than she feels comfortable with, in a situation where I think scum could twist minor reads into reasons to lay down an easy vote. (#1916).
3) She seems to be confident in her manner, e.g. at #1939 and #1940, but generally throughout early D4. I think is easier to pull off as someone who knows that they have content to help town, rather than someone who's got a hidden agenda they're trying to manipulate town into assisting with.

There's probably more, but #3 covers the bulk of it. She just came into the day feeling like she meant business. It probably helps that she was even then in possession of information that I'm not Maquis, and so wasn't throwing a lot of her scrutiny my way. Yes, that's probably a bias of mine.

[SpaceAnemone]

I’m curious to see what raerae thinks of Space’s analysis in regard to MiX...

Bear in mind I'm looking for Maquis only with that recent bit of analysis. I still think MiX is throwing mud, stirring trouble and trying to make ridiculously under-supported cases stick, and none of that is towny.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Vote: Ash

[Uncleeurope]

I think it’s worth noting that Faust isn’t technically an IC.

That being said, I think it is in our best interest to treat him as such.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Under what circumstances is faust scum?

[Uncleeurope]

Vote: Ash

Why didn’t you want to claim, Snow?

PPE: Rogue bus driver.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Already said, protecting Worf was important and every additional claim was making that worse.

[Uncleeurope]

Already said, protecting Worf was important and every additional claim was making that worse.

But you were opposed to everyone claiming as well, do you think EFHW’s claim was a mistake?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I absolutely think EFHW's claim was a mistake.

I'm glad you like my Ash case btw.