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Author Topic: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (GAME OVER, Maquis win!)  (Read 28711 times)

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EFHW

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1950 on: March 23, 2019, 09:30:23 am »

I'm not averse to claiming but what are we going to do with that information once it's out? Say Ash is Worf, do we lunch him on the spot? It feels weird to just have that information with no contingency plan.
Why would you lynch Worf at all? If you mean Garak, then I'd say yes, lynch them.
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1951 on: March 23, 2019, 09:32:12 am »

I'm not averse to claiming but what are we going to do with that information once it's out? Say Ash is Worf, do we lunch him on the spot? It feels weird to just have that information with no contingency plan.
Why would you lynch Worf at all? If you mean Garak, then I'd say yes, lynch them.

I was just pulling names out, not making suggestions.
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EFHW

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1952 on: March 23, 2019, 09:33:51 am »

I'm not averse to claiming but what are we going to do with that information once it's out? Say Ash is Worf, do we lunch him on the spot? It feels weird to just have that information with no contingency plan.
Why would you lynch Worf at all? If you mean Garak, then I'd say yes, lynch them.

I was just pulling names out, not making suggestions.
I want to do the claim with the purpose of lynching Garak.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1953 on: March 23, 2019, 09:38:45 am »

So is the mass claim necessary? Couldn't that person come forward with their best reason for why they haven't used the lightening rod power yet then we decide if they're lying or not?

Again, I'm cool with claiming but want to understand next steps.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1954 on: March 23, 2019, 09:40:01 am »

Make that 45% and 27%.

Yeah, those I agree with. Note that they're precisely 100%-x, where x is either of the two percentage chances I posted of there being at least one scum in the group in either scenario.
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EFHW

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1955 on: March 23, 2019, 09:40:48 am »

So is the mass claim necessary? Couldn't that person come forward with their best reason for why they haven't used the lightening rod power yet then we decide if they're lying or not?

Again, I'm cool with claiming but want to understand next steps.
Sure,  but they haven't.
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EFHW

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1956 on: March 23, 2019, 09:42:17 am »

Make that 45% and 27%.

Yeah, those I agree with. Note that they're precisely 100%-x, where x is either of the two percentage chances I posted of there being at least one scum in the group in either scenario.
Look at that! I considered it but wasn't sure.
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1957 on: March 23, 2019, 09:43:04 am »

So is the mass claim necessary? Couldn't that person come forward with their best reason for why they haven't used the lightening rod power yet then we decide if they're lying or not?

Again, I'm cool with claiming but want to understand next steps.
Sure,  but they haven't.

Fair enough. You want to set the claim order?
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EFHW

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1958 on: March 23, 2019, 09:50:22 am »

Ok, but people can reasonably object to my being the one to do it. I would suggest

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raerae
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EFHW

But we could also consider stopping if we find Garak early.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1959 on: March 23, 2019, 09:51:47 am »

So is the mass claim necessary? Couldn't that person come forward with their best reason for why they haven't used the lightening rod power yet then we decide if they're lying or not?

Again, I'm cool with claiming but want to understand next steps.
Sure,  but they haven't.

Fair enough. You want to set the claim order?

The only person that should set any claim order is faust or raerae. Or me, but I doubt anyone will agree to that.

Garak is almost certainly scum here. Town!Garak would have chosen lightning rod and would most likely have used it by now.

Why would town!Garak have used lightning rod? Genually confused. Although I do agree Garak seems like scum, there's also one other possibility (well, two, if you think town would've used rod) that you're missing. But I'm still down for a Garak claim. Who hasn't talked about it yet?

PPE 1: Swap yourself with raerae and it's not the worst order...
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1960 on: March 23, 2019, 09:56:50 am »

So is the mass claim necessary? Couldn't that person come forward with their best reason for why they haven't used the lightening rod power yet then we decide if they're lying or not?

Again, I'm cool with claiming but want to understand next steps.
Sure,  but they haven't.

Fair enough. You want to set the claim order?

The only person that should set any claim order is faust or raerae. Or me, but I doubt anyone will agree to that.

Garak is almost certainly scum here. Town!Garak would have chosen lightning rod and would most likely have used it by now.

Why would town!Garak have used lightning rod? Genually confused. Although I do agree Garak seems like scum, there's also one other possibility (well, two, if you think town would've used rod) that you're missing. But I'm still down for a Garak claim. Who hasn't talked about it yet?

PPE 1: Swap yourself with raerae and it's not the worst order...

I outsourced to EFHW, I'm cool with the order.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1961 on: March 23, 2019, 10:05:57 am »

I think EFHWís think is off. ďTown LR should have LRed by nowĒ is a faulty assumption.  Iíd say town!garek waits for a cop claim then uses the bus as a doctor. Thatís the much townier use, and Iíd berate any townie who popped an LR instead.

Doesnít make me think EFHW is scum though.

As for claiming, itís not a good idea unless there are useful results. Like, a cop with a guilty, or arguably three living not guilties. Since role and alignment have no connection, a claim parade detracts from scum hunting, which is what scum wants. Iíd have been pushing mass claim for quite awhile as scum.

Due to that, SA seems townier than before, Faust, MiX, and EFHW scummier.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1962 on: March 23, 2019, 10:09:29 am »

That town!LR plan doesn't work because it makes the cop useless, so no point in protecting them.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1963 on: March 23, 2019, 10:13:09 am »

SA, did you post the percentages for how likely it is for scum to be in the neighborhood?

For the SK+Maq scenario, there was a 55% chance of at least one scum in the neighbourhood at the start of the game, and a 45% chance of exactly one.
For the MU+Maq scenario, there was a 73% chance of at least one scum in the neighbourhood at the start of the game, and a 49% chance of exactly one.

Note that these are prior probabilities, meaning that we expect to have to update them as new information (e.g. flips) come into play. Also note that the chance of faust rolling scum is independent of the fact that he's in the neighbourhood. So it would be totally incorrect to conclude that since there was a >55% chance of there being a scum in the neighbourhood to start with, and now faust is the only possible non-scum left, that he will automatically have a >55% chance of being scum. That would be bad logic.

Also, can you post the current likelihood percentage for faust being scum IF there is scum in the neighborhood this game?

As faust says, it's 100%, because he's the only neighbour not to have flipped town already, so if there was a scum in the neighbourhood, it must have been him.

It is possible that some interaction with him being in the neighbourhood will have had an effect on game-play up to this point such that scum-neighbour!faust is more likely to have survived this long that town-neighbour!faust, thus breaking the independence, but that's all tied up in the part of gameplay that I can't model so well.

Also, faust had a point yesterday about the fact that we can be sure he's not the SK. That actually means that from the naive townie point of view, he's very slightly less likely to be scum on average than any of the rest of you. However, reads and gameplay ought to modulate that...

The reason I hate probability is that it appears to mess with reality.

You are basically telling me that even if faust rolled scum this game, the chances he rolled scum this game went down, even if he in actuality rolled scum.

I would like to believe that if faust rolled scum this game, the chance that he rolled scum is 100%. But if he rolled scum this game, then ended up in the neighborhood, then other members of the neighborhood flipped town, that 100% chance that he rolled scum went down.

If he rolled scum, he rolled scum. Flips by other players donít change that. Except in probability explanations. When discussing probability, facts (like actually rolling scum, in this scenario) donít count.

If you have an easy to understand way to explain to me how a player with a scum alignment has a less than 100% chance of being scum, I would love to hear it. It took a few years, but someone on f.ds finally explained Monty Hall to me, so I assume this one is also doable.  Because right now this is the equivalent of looking at my hand, counting five fingers, then having you tell me my chances of having five fingers is actually less than 100% even though I just counted.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1964 on: March 23, 2019, 10:15:00 am »

Ok, but people can reasonably object to my being the one to do it. I would suggest

UoS
ashersky
MiX
Didds
raerae
Space
EFHW

But we could also consider stopping if we find Garak early.

I did briefly get really confused why Eddie was missing, and went to check whether he'd died. Which is silly, because clearly the mistake I made earlier with the roles was taking his role out of the list because it had already been claimed. In case it's useful, the correct list of seven unclaimed roles to match those seven players should (I hope!) be:

Chief Miles O'Brien -- mirror universe cop
Lt. Cmdr. Worf -- maquis cop
Lt. Jadzia Dax / Lt. Ezri Dax -- 1-shot deathproof
Elim Garak, a simple tailor -- 1-shot bus driver OR 1-shot lightning rod (his choice)
Captain Kasidy Yates -- 1-shot commuter
Morn -- loved (stops working when he canít be lynched without self-voting)
Kai Winn -- 1-shot double voter (can't be concealed)
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1965 on: March 23, 2019, 10:15:06 am »

That town!LR plan doesn't work because it makes the cop useless, so no point in protecting them.

How pray tell would protecting a cop render them useless?  Bus drivers are roleblockers.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1966 on: March 23, 2019, 10:40:24 am »

The reason I hate probability is that it appears to mess with reality.

Note really.. it just doesn't magically give you the numbers you want :-)

You are basically telling me that even if faust rolled scum this game, the chances he rolled scum this game went down, even if he in actuality rolled scum.

Also not true.. I was careful to say that the initial numbers were likelihoods at the start of the game, and the things we know now interact with that.

I would like to believe that if faust rolled scum this game, the chance that he rolled scum is 100%.

Yes, to faust, if he's scum, he's 100% scum. To the rest of us, we can't be sure, so we use these probabilities to express our degree of belief. So if there are 17 other players in the game, my belief that faust is scum is n/17, for an n-scum setup, and something slightly more complicated in setups that have different probabilities of having different numbers of scum.

As for the rest:
It took a few years, but someone on f.ds finally explained Monty Hall to me, so I assume this one is also doable.

I agree it's perfectly doable, but if it takes a few years, let's not prioritise it over lynching scum right now :-)
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1967 on: March 23, 2019, 10:41:11 am »

That town!LR plan doesn't work because it makes the cop useless, so no point in protecting them.

How pray tell would protecting a cop render them useless?  Bus drivers are roleblockers.

Isn't the cop's target also drawn to the LR, without the cop necessarily knowing about it?
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1968 on: March 23, 2019, 11:09:29 am »

What do we do now that the claiming thing didn't happen?
We should still force a claim. Scum Cops have too strong an incentive not to claim. Elim Garak is scummy for refusing to claim. We need to know who the Loved/Doublevoters are. Did anyone actually make an argument against claiming beyond "I'm opposed to anything faust suggests"?
What is the incentive for scum cops not to claim? I did in fact post a specific objection to claiming based on protecting the cops. You are saying the opposite here, so I would like to know your reasoning. 
Well if a scum Cop claims, they're going to get NKed by the other scum. Losing a member of their team is much worse for scum than it would be for town.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1969 on: March 23, 2019, 11:13:12 am »

That town!LR plan doesn't work because it makes the cop useless, so no point in protecting them.

How pray tell would protecting a cop render them useless?  Bus drivers are roleblockers.
Lightning rod would redirect their investigation from their target to the LR. Bus driving could work, at the risk of hitting someone else valuable like town!Morn or the other cop.
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EFHW

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1970 on: March 23, 2019, 11:14:25 am »

What do we do now that the claiming thing didn't happen?
We should still force a claim. Scum Cops have too strong an incentive not to claim. Elim Garak is scummy for refusing to claim. We need to know who the Loved/Doublevoters are. Did anyone actually make an argument against claiming beyond "I'm opposed to anything faust suggests"?
What is the incentive for scum cops not to claim? I did in fact post a specific objection to claiming based on protecting the cops. You are saying the opposite here, so I would like to know your reasoning. 
Well if a scum Cop claims, they're going to get NKed by the other scum. Losing a member of their team is much worse for scum than it would be for town.
Ok
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1971 on: March 23, 2019, 11:15:15 am »

I'm curious about the fact that faust has been pushing the idea that we need to know who Morn and Kai Winn are, but not Dax, who also messes with town's ability to lynch effectively.
Well Dax has some value unclaimed as they might soak up a scum NK, so it's less clear that we want to out them.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1972 on: March 23, 2019, 11:19:51 am »

I'm curious about the fact that faust has been pushing the idea that we need to know who Morn and Kai Winn are, but not Dax, who also messes with town's ability to lynch effectively.
Well Dax has some value unclaimed as they might soak up a scum NK, so it's less clear that we want to out them.
This is another reason to stop when we hit Garak. Are you ok with the claim order?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1973 on: March 23, 2019, 11:48:20 am »

I'm curious about the fact that faust has been pushing the idea that we need to know who Morn and Kai Winn are, but not Dax, who also messes with town's ability to lynch effectively.
Well Dax has some value unclaimed as they might soak up a scum NK, so it's less clear that we want to out them.
This is another reason to stop when we hit Garak. Are you ok with the claim order?
I'm fine though I think it may be best to just give everyone a chance to post and say whether they are Garak before we start.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1974 on: March 23, 2019, 11:51:54 am »

I'm curious about the fact that faust has been pushing the idea that we need to know who Morn and Kai Winn are, but not Dax, who also messes with town's ability to lynch effectively.
Well Dax has some value unclaimed as they might soak up a scum NK, so it's less clear that we want to out them.
This is another reason to stop when we hit Garak. Are you ok with the claim order?
I'm fine though I think it may be best to just give everyone a chance to post and say whether they are Garak before we start.

Is there a point to massclaim after this? All non-cop roles are useless which means we'll just out the cops. Do we want that?
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