SA, did you post the percentages for how likely it is for scum to be in the neighborhood?

For the SK+Maq scenario, there was a 55% chance of at least one scum in the neighbourhood at the start of the game, and a 45% chance of exactly one.

For the MU+Maq scenario, there was a 73% chance of at least one scum in the neighbourhood at the start of the game, and a 49% chance of exactly one.

Note that these are *prior* probabilities, meaning that we expect to have to update them as new information (e.g. flips) come into play. Also note that the chance of faust rolling scum is *independent* of the fact that he's in the neighbourhood. So it would be totally incorrect to conclude that since there was a >55% chance of there being a scum in the neighbourhood to start with, and now faust is the only possible non-scum left, that he will automatically have a >55% chance of being scum. That would be bad logic.

Also, can you post the current likelihood percentage for faust being scum IF there is scum in the neighborhood this game?

As faust says, it's 100%, because he's the only neighbour not to have flipped town already, so if there was a scum in the neighbourhood, it must have been him.

It *is* possible that some interaction with him being in the neighbourhood will have had an effect on game-play up to this point such that scum-neighbour!faust is more likely to have survived this long that town-neighbour!faust, thus breaking the independence, but that's all tied up in the part of gameplay that I can't model so well.

Also, faust had a point yesterday about the fact that we can be sure he's not the SK. That actually means that from the naive townie point of view, he's very slightly less likely to be scum on average than any of the rest of you. However, reads and gameplay ought to modulate that...

The reason I hate probability is that it appears to mess with reality.

You are basically telling me that even if faust rolled scum this game, the chances he rolled scum this game went down, even if he in actuality rolled scum.

I would like to believe that if faust rolled scum this game, the chance that he rolled scum is 100%. But if he rolled scum this game, then ended up in the neighborhood, then other members of the neighborhood flipped town, that 100% chance that he rolled scum went down.

If he rolled scum, he rolled scum. Flips by other players don’t change that. Except in probability explanations. When discussing probability, facts (like actually rolling scum, in this scenario) don’t count.

If you have an easy to understand way to explain to me how a player with a scum alignment has a less than 100% chance of being scum, I would love to hear it. It took a few years, but someone on f.ds finally explained Monty Hall to me, so I assume this one is also doable. Because right now this is the equivalent of looking at my hand, counting five fingers, then having you tell me my chances of having five fingers is actually less than 100% even though I just counted.